tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg April 21, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
elon musk says he has lined up nearly $47 billion to take over twitter and signals he could be prepared to pay more. >> we have basically the two biggest central bankers, jay powell, the last 12 hours or so, it was an imf panel with jay powell that continues to shock markets once again. >> it was just yesterday that we talked about peak inflation, peak fed, not the case given the selloff and bonds we saw overnight. a hawkish tone. a more definitive tone, we could say, coming from jay powell, saying 50 on the table come may. not surprising, yields are rising in asia today, tracking the yield movements in the u.s. in the equity markets, weakness across the board.
the nikkei, losses. china and hong kong coming off five we close. if the csi 500 were to get to that level, it would be the lowest in two years. take a look at how it is trading right now in terms of the sectors. yvonne. yvonne: hong kong still lower by about 1% or more. the risk aversion you are seeing, it really started with treasuries. you have the short end of the curve. yields in the five-year at 3% at one point. this is the plate on greater china right now. here is how it looks like when it comes to bond markets. we hit the 3% threshold for the five-year. there is a bit of that sort of
inversion that you are seeing coming back into these markets. now, it seems that when it comes to market pricing on fed hikes, it is about 50, 50, 50. three 50 basis point hikes is what the pricing is right now. nomura taking a step further saying we could see 50, 75, 75. so yeah, this is perhaps the most aggressive we have heard from jay powell. >> that's right. bollard may not be wrong when he says 50 could be what they see if that is needed. let's get back to fed chair jay powell. he did not just open the door, he all but walked through it. kathleen hays, why is powell being so explicit? >> well, first of all, this is not a complete surprise.
he seems to have mentioned the possibility of it in the past. the difference is that we are so close to the may meeting. other fed officials have talked about 50 basis point hikes. let's listen to exactly what he said at an imf panel that included christine lagarde, head of the ecb. >> it is appropriate in my view to be moving more quickly. i also think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate, so that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make the meeting by meeting, but i would say 50 would be on the table for the may meeting. >> i have been hearing in talking with -- and talking with my print reporter colleagues and they say this is an explicit endorsement of a 50 basis point rate hike in may just a couple weeks away from jay powell.
jim bullard from the st. louis fed led the pack. chris lawler picked it up as well. other fed officials. even if they have not exactly set i'm going to vote for it, they know it is on the table. i think this kind of ties it all up. this is about frontloading rate hikes. what has larry summers been saying? what has bill dudley been saying? you've got to go pastor coming your way b -- faster, you are way behind the curve. this also seems like the fed not wanting to surprise the markets. they will probably do the 50 basis point hike. they must've talked amongst themselves already. if the markets aren't ready for this, they will not be ready for anything. 75 seems like a very aggressive call for the next meeting. we have to see what happens at this meeting and what jay powell says afterward. >> you talk about explicit, we are hearing more, reiterating
the vowed to support the economy, but not doing much to help these markets, but they are talking about getting these big investors to buy stocks now too. >> it doesn't seem like we are getting a whole lot of that part yet. the head of the people's bank of china, what people want to do here is something more definite. we did some, we did the rrr cuts you did not cut the medium term lending facility. let's hear what he said at the closely watched forum. >> stands ready to support small and medium enterprises if needed. so that without outlook -- with that outlook, we have accommodative monetary policy supporting our real economy throughout this year. >> how does it make sense? if you've got people locked down
in china, if they are still fighting the virus, if people can't get out and spend, why put more stimulus in the economy now? the thing about helping small and medium businesses and people hit by these lockdowns, maybe that is the strategy now. wait on stimulus to when the economy can absorb it and use it. that is the explanation people are may be needing to hear from the pboc. so far, we get a certain extent more of the same, but that is all we can expect. >> concrete actions. that is what the market is looking for. we heard from citigroup saying, we might hear something in that 48-70 two hour window from policy makers. kathleen hays wrapping up the central bank talk we have had. let's bring in our guest now, audrey goh from standard chartered wealth management joins us. you have to look at what has been going on when it comes to
stocks as well as bonds and the underperformance of both of these asset classes. i have to ask you, the magnitude of the clients we have seen is basically very similar to the declines we saw of 30 years or so. how do you look at this backdrop right now? do you think we could hear more aggressiveness from the fed? 40 think we have reached the peak -- or do you think we have reached the peak? >> i don't think it is a surprise. if you look at the last couple of years, equities and bonds have been benefiting from a low rate environment. at the same time, also supporting equity valuations. with inflation now being the topic of the year, we have central banks now turning very hawkish, not just the fed, but in other parts of the world. with the intention to tame this inflation we have seen most recently.
it is exacerbated by the ukraine-russia conflict as well. the conflict started in february, so we are only starting to see the effects to higher prices, disruption from the conflict going forward in the next couple of months. it is hard for the fed not to sound as hawkish as they have been sounding. on the back of that, when powell said 50 basis points is on the table, that is well priced into the markets even as early as a couple of weeks ago. >> you are still keeping overweight equities, underweight bonds with neutral on duration. is there anything that could change that call for you? >> for me, it is quite clear on underweight on bonds. having said that, if you look at equity markets, the overall
economic conditions are still very robust. our view is that we will not see a recession this year. the probability of a recession is very low. people are still hiring, consumers are still spending, that is really supporting the economy. so, we see the probability of a recession to be quite low, which is why we continue to be quite constructive on risk assets as a whole. when you look at the current earnings season so far, there was a lot of concern about margin pressure, going into the earnings season, but so far 10% to 15% of the companies reporting, we are seeing beat by earnings across the board. margins have been really, really resilient. which is why we are quite constructive on equities. >> we just took a look at the
volatility between bonds. there seems to be a divergence. is there a sense that the stock market is still too complacent and it could be looking at a risky year ahead? >> i think historically volatility picks up around a rate hiking cycle. we have seen that in the past. we are seeing at this time, as well. this time, we have the perfect combination of higher yields, the covid lockdown in china, the bottleneck, and fed rate hikes. this could be a reasonably volatile year. we must not detract our eyes away.
the prospect of a recession -- at this point in time, i think the probability is quite low given how robust the overall consumer market is in the labor market. -- and the labor market. >> is the gap a worry for the market right now? >> for now, i don't believe so. it is certainly worthwhile paying attention to the risk markets. if it is to continue its spiral higher, sooner or later, this will slow growth down. does that mean we will have a higher probability of a recession? as all of us know, financial markets look forward. this could capitalize further volatility in equity markets. even though the fed is looking
at higher interest rates, the overall economy is very robust to withstand that. >> we are just having some lines crossing from shanghai. the city officials i'm presuming are talking about just how quickly they can resume production. they are saying 70% of key industrial firms have resumed output. they have been resuming output in the past week or so. this closed-loop operation required still for companies resuming also according to the vice mayor speaking at a briefing this morning. we are still watching the lockdown situation in china. markets are yearning for any signs of concrete policy action. do you think we could be getting that soon? >> i think it is only a matter of time. lockdowns will eventually end.
i think one of the more real-time cases i've been watching is the congestion of ships outside shanghai ports. it has been coming down slightly from very elevated levels. we are reasonably hopefully covid lockdown will gradually end or be reduced as the number of new cases in china comes down under control. but it is something that investors have been waiting for for a while given china's tough stance on covid as a country. >> thank you. audrey goh, senior cross asset strategist at standard chartered wealth management. let's get the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. >> thank you. president vladimir putin says russian forces have seized mario paul -- mariupol. it is key to moscow's current strategy to link up to the crimea. the deputy chief of staff tells bloomberg the declaration is premature. >> the ukrainian armed forces
are still intact. yes, most of them are locked in the steel plant, as well as many civilians, which are in that same steel plant. an exchange was suggested of those civilians, the soldiers who are wounded, for the russian wounded soldiers which are in ukraine's possession. we received no answer. >> the u.s. is sending ukraine more in arms and economic aid. $800 million will go toward weapons. leaders from germany, spain, and portugal have asked french voters not to back far right leader marine le pen ahead of sunday's presidential election. in a joint call, they described
marine le pen as a candidate who openly sides with those who attack freedom and democracy. they said the outcome would be a choice for all of europe. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> still ahead on bloomberg markets: asia, we discuss the impact of rising real rates and what it means for metals. traders brace for a more hawkish fed. plus, chinese officials push on a set of proposed punishments for didi. more on that scoop coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
yvonne: all right, take a look at your asia tech index we are following for a fourth straight session. you are seeing mostly lower for the most part. on a lot of the delisting concerns with dd after it dropped overnight quite substantially on the bloomberg scoop. the fate of the ride-hailing giant and further limbo when it comes to talking about the penalties involved. bloomberg has learned senior chinese officials have rejected the proposed penalties on the company stemming from a lengthy cybersecurity investigation. let's bring in our asia tech executive editor.
peter, what is the situation surrounding it? the top watchdog still thinks the penalties do not go far enough? >> this is another setback for didi. it is the ride-hailing giant in china. when it went public in the middle of last year, there were high hopes. it was supposed to be one of the great rising stars of the technology sector in china, but almost immediately they ran into troubles. after they went public, the regulators in beijing said they had not gotten sufficient approval, particularly around data security and some of the other issues. they have been locked in this standoff with regulators in beijing over what kind of penalties would address the problems that they had in that ipo in the middle of last year. they had listed in the u.s. and they have been forced to de-list from the u.s. and they are taking the shares off of exchanges in the u.s.
they are trying to figure out how to get relisted and they have not worked out a solution. haslinda: there are real risks that didi will get delisted without having a listing anywhere else. that would force some shareholders to selloff the shares, right? >> that would be right. didi is headed for limbo. they will have to delist from the u.s. and they have not been able to proceed with the hong kong share listing. many shareholders just don't have the mandate to be able to hold shares that are going to trade over-the-counter and the pink sheets. that tends to be the forum for penny stocks and very risky stocks. didi is trying to get relisted in hong kong so shareholders can continue to share -- hold shares or by shares, but they have not been able to get this proposed settlement through beijing at this point. as you mentioned before, beijing would like tougher penalties for didi before they are able to
relist in hong kong. they are still working that out and for now at least they are stuck in this purgatory. yvonne: peter, thank you for that. didi still in limbo. investors in chinese tech shares are already exiting the u.s. market. there has been an exit us. if you look at jd.com, where alibaba is right now, people moving to the hong kong market. 77% of jd.com shares have been circulating in hong kong's system compared to 44% at the beginning of this year. alibaba seeing similar moves. it just goes to show that some investors are saying, i don't want to look at my chances at the moment, i would like to head to hong kong. some still say, we've got to wait to see what happens with the audit process and how willing beijing is in giving
haslinda: welcome back. elon musk has lined up billions in financing for more than a dozen banks and is putting an additional $21 billion of his own money on the line. su keenan joins us. this suddenly got real. >> it seemed like wall street was saying, show me the money, and in his latest filing, he is showing there are billions in financing, more than enough to show he has secured a $46.5 billion in financing to buy
twitter. remember back in 2018, he tweeted out, funding secured when he tried to take tesla private, it turned out to be an empty promise, hurt his reputation. he is still in hot water over that. you are looking at a half-dozen banks all named in the filing. $25.5 billion with multiple types of debt as part of the package. half of the funding comes from elon musk himself. he formed a trio of holding companies. what are his options? he is also talking to private equity, new york post saying he is in talks with thoma bravo, about partnering on the bid, and this filing shows he is in a position and ready to negotiate. >> what are we hearing about the offer price? >> his best and final may not be
final. the filing shows there are billions more in financing available in case he wants or needs to sweeten the bid. just take a look at the share price. there have been so many gyrations in the story in the last 17 days, from when he first announced that he had amassed a better than 9% share position in the company to he was offered a board seat, then he rejected the board seat, now he has gone hostile in terms of a tender offer and there is a lot of money to back him up. everyone on wall street and main street watching what is next. one ceo said in terms of entertainment value alone, elon musk is already delivered. this is a package and a filing that looks very serious indeed. >> thank you. su keenan there. we continue to watch what has been going on with the fed. the stronger dollar story, what
yvonne: 11:29 in tokyo. japanese markets heading into the lunch break. we see fallout when it comes to risk assets, as well as what we are seeing in the end. the dollar-yen rally continuing as we wrap up the trading week. a lot of questions if we really are going to see the yen intervention. here are your crosses at the moment. it is still the dollar strength story on the back of what we heard from jay powell giving his blessing for the basis point hike.
dollar-yen, it is not just the stronger dollar story, it is also a weaker yen story. even with renminbi. we also have inflation numbers that came out of japan, which makes the boj meeting pretty interesting next week. topping 1% for headline cpi. haslinda: the big question is whether there will be a shift in policy for the boj next. all eyes on that one. also more on the yen. let's bring in our senior reporter for assets and rates. does this run the risk of intervention by japanese officials? >> absolutely. it is already attracting intervention by the finance minister, boj officials. you have to see it in context in the sense that the yen slide has been phenomenal, down more than 10% against the dollar in four months.
it also depends on what kind of intervention that could come about to truly work to boost the yen. commonwealth bank of australia has said there intervention is likely to fail without full support from the u.s., for example. others are saying if there is intervention by japanese authorities, it is likely to come this month. all eyes on this and what intervention could come about, but that is definitely expected. yvonne: i remember the morgan stanley call saying, don't even look for a coordinated intervention because the rest of the world is trying to fight inflation right now. what are people saying about where the yen can go in this environment? do you think 1.30 is still a base case -- 130 is still a base case? >> that is the question everyone has to answer. no one is willing to put a line in the sand just yet. if there is intervention, 130 is
a virtual certainty. some say it could go as low as 150 against the dollar. some are saying it is the biggest macro trade in town. 130 could be the new normal for dollar-yen, you never know. yvonne: another breakout we have seen as dollar-china. of course, it is a strong dollar story, another casualty for that. what is the outlook looking like? are we going to see more weakness in the renminbi moving forward? >> it is once again a story of an aggressive fed when it comes to tightening monetary policy and rising treasury yields. the u.n. feeling the brunt of that. to answer that, more weakness ahead. traders are pricing in further weakness. 6.5 for the offshore versus the dollar. what is really hurting the yuan is a cocktail of lockdowns and
the slowdown we are seeing in china. as long as those factors persist, expect more weakness ahead. yvonne: yes, two things to walk -- watch. thank you, ruth carson. we are seeing this line, the weakest we have seen in some time. the worst week in more than two years. we are heading to the lowest level in nearly two years. another strong dollar story. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word news. >> federal reserve chair jay powell with a hike of 50 basis points in play at the fomc's next meeting in may. adding that he sees merit in front end loading policy moves. he spoke at an imf posted panel with the fed about to enter its
traditional blackout period before next month's meeting. >> it is appropriate to be moving a little more quickly in my view and i think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. so that does point in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make the meeting by meeting, but i would say it would be on the table for the main meeting. >> ukraine says rebuilding the country will cost around $600 billion. the prime minister has been calling on members of the imf to donate 10% of the reserve assets to support the efforts. the world bank president told bloomberg that ending the war is crucial to the global economy. >> ukraine is part of the global production chain, so the world needs that production. looking beyond that, there needs to be clarity in the world about values, about direction, about
the orientation of economies, but also the necessity of peace. there is a huge world interest in having the war stop. >> several wall street banks and some international ones are supporting elon musk's run to buy twitter. this is all according to a regulatory filing. morgan stanley has pledged to buy the biggest chunk. senior chinese officials have pushed back on recommended punishments for ride-hailer didi global. bloomberg understands the agency was going to publish the results in april, but they have asked for revisions after finding proposed measures too lenient. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,
powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. yvonne. yvonne: take a look at commodities here. the stronger dollar story. the china demand picture, as well as when it comes to the fed signals. that seems to be adding to the picture. you have gold falling to the lowest in almost two weeks. you have oil set to drop for a third week. that is what is playing out here. haslinda: let's discuss the outlook for commodities and bring in juerg kiener from swiss asia capital. good to have you with us. if we take a look at the commodities universe, what is the overriding sector that is influencing movement? is it supply chain disruptions as a result of the war in ukraine? juerg: i think we have a toxic mix of various components which are driving this universe. one is a huge market trading
right now on whatever news you have. that market is so big it is crossing whatever happens on the ground. if you look at the ground structure, what we really have is an economic structure which is still in semi-lockdown. demand will come back once the economy is fully open. what we have on the supply side is disruptions to logistics areas and we see many areas, much lower shipping into china. despite that, we had pretty from commodities. the question is why? i think the main issue is that my global inventory levels are pretty much rock-bottom. i have never seen them as low in 20 years. that is putting significant pressure on the industrial side to not depend on the warehouses.
so, the whole supply chain is actually changing. to a large extent, even problems in production, almost everybody struggles to meet the production target. haslinda: when you talk about supply chain disruptions and shortages, it is most apparent when it comes to oil, hence we are seeing more oil prices are right now. where is oil headed? morgan stanley raised its forecast by $10. juerg: you can pick the numbers. you could go back down to $80 or go back up to $200, i don't really know. it is a market dependent on sanctions to a large extent right now, which is making it even tougher. i think as long as the war basically keeps going and we try not to find a solution to the war, you can expect that we will
have another move upwards down the road. but looking at the metals, i looked at markets which are even more tight than energy. i much more worried about some of the metals. haslinda: which ones in particular? juerg: almost the whole commodities metals market. if you look at is in, you have zinc smelters shutting down. and a time when we are already short. what is the biggest byproduct of zinc? it is silver. where do we need silver? military hardware, technology, the new form of going green depends on silver. we are shutting this oversupply down and on the derivative side, we have leverage of 100 times the exchanges. how are you going to price a product and that type of environment? i think the answer is we have seen people go physical instead
of paper. the question now is of the paper contract. yvonne: are you saying the price premium from the ukraine war is going to stay or do you think investors' demand will start to wane once we get a clear picture from the fed later on this year? juerg: investor demand is playing to a large extent right now paper. you have a strong dollar, you are short metals. industrial structure is very different. they don't really care about the dollar, they care about what they have to produce. that demand is getting stronger and stronger at a time when we have no supply. on yen, it is the real world which will drive the price, not the paper. as a result from that point of view, you will see huge pressure on things like lme, the nickel market actually blowing up, and
even with contracts because we can deliver, it does not change your backend structure on deliverable metals. yvonne: out of all the metals that you cover, which is the lowest risk to you? juerg: i think almost everything which goes into the green revolution is really in high demand because government policies wants to make them super green. unfortunately, we are creating a policy without investing the money to create all the goods we need. that drives prices higher. we look at electrification, copper is a fantastic environment to be in. you have production falling and demand going up. zinc we already mentioned. the nickel market is critical in going green. it is in very short supply. if you look at metals in high quality, which have a very small footprint, so which are
environmental friendly, the numbers even collapsing to a lower level. you take russia out of the goods and you are in a real mess. haslinda: gold at current prices, what is it factoring in? a soft landing, a hot landing? juerg: gold is the bargain of the century. the price level of support is 1920. 1920 is right now the bottom of gold. at a time when safe haven demand should be picking up. we see a lot of paper market interventions on the gold market. we see rates on the etf's for delivery and we see supply chain disruptions. your delivery time for large quantities is exponential. there is hardly anything coming to the market because it goes straight into the treasury of
yvonne: take a look at your broad at markets. it is risk off. you are seeing bonds and stocks falling with the exception of vietnam. we are seeing a little bit of relief. we did see some of these crackdowns when it comes to brokerages pick up when it comes to these detained officials from some brokerages in the last couple of days. may be a sign of things looking a little bit too oversold in the market. we are focusing more on southeast asia. haslinda: it is one of the most oversold markets in the world. to malaysia. the sovereign wealth fund is betting on real assets and health care investments to cushion from inflation eating into the longer-term returns.
rising prices remain the biggest risk along with how some banks view it. >> we are hugely exposed. now, first of all we have to see how we can create value among these companies to see whether they can have sustainable growth going forward. you can only achieve that in a market where you have more productivity, more shifting to improving the cost structures, as well as the service quality of what we have. it is really the investments that we have in our portfolio. haslinda: as it stands right now, china is still investable. there is a debate about whether china is or not. >> you can't ignore china and we
are exposed to china. that is something that will become, it is already in major economy. like i said, when we look at it, we are delivering long-term value for our stakeholders. things come in cycles. as an investor in china, yes. haslinda: you are looking at rebalancing and portfolio, how might that look like? in terms of regions and asset classes, give us a sense of the breakdown you are looking at. >> i won't give you the percentage, but i think in general what we would like to have, we remain significantly in the country, malaysia, of course. then looking at domestic markets , and right now we are underweight when it comes to developed markets. developed markets, emerging
markets, we are looking at southeast asia. china as well. developed markets with key last year. we also have exposures in india as well. asset classes, we have public markets. internationally, it is really private markets. haslinda: do you find cryptocurrencies attractive? is it something you may be looking at? >> we do have risk appetite. it is unlikely we would be investing in cryptocurrencies, but one thing i would say is that it is an interesting space. that is because it is a lot of innovation surrounding the digital assets. we also see countries experimenting in their own digital currencies. china is looking at the pilot
program, testing this. this is an area where we are keeping watch. we are monitoring the innovation that is happening around digital assets. haslinda: markets preoccupied with elevated inflation, what assumptions are you making? has inflation peaked and how is that factoring in in terms of how you view your potential investment? >> we do see real returns from investments for example lowering. this is factored into expectations going forward. i think what we want to do going forward is really to see how long it would take in order for the country's inflation to be arrested going forward. right now, we are making sure that we stay resilient, stay focused on the long-term
investment profiles we have. we are into certain markets already. health care, financial institutions. and making sure we have real assets, as well. haslinda: if you are a bloomberg subscriber, you can catch up with all of our interviews by using our interactive function, tv . also join the conversation by sending instant messages to our team and guest during our live shows. check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> headlines. gucci sales rose, missing estimates as lockdowns and china weighed on the performance of the biggest brand. sales generated over half of the revenue, the rose about 13%. analysts had predicted a gain of almost 19%. the figures follow strong results from lvmh and hermes last week. disney is set to lose some of its parks in florida, with the state legislature clearing a measure to strip it of its privileges. governor ron desantis is now going to sign the legislation cup which will end an arrangement that allowed disney to govern its own municipal functions for more than 50 years. disney is, florida's biggest employers with over 70,000 local
workers. bank of america is moving some of its dealmakers to singapore from hong kong temporarily, including its cohead of asia consumer and retail investment banking. some senior m&a staff are also relocating. hong kong's pursuit of covid zero is dampening activity in the city. singapore has dropped all virus restrictions. it seems like whether there is that influx of people coming from hong kong to singapore, it still remains to be a big question mark because it seems like the number would benefit, but there are so --also are still restrictions as well. haslinda: at a time when singapore is meant to capitalize on the losses of hong kong, it is not really doing so. it is a case of wanting the best talent out there. in our conversations with the ministers they say we want
high-level talent that we ourselves can't produce in the city. it goes back to the elections, the last elections where the ruling party saw its worst performance since 2000. that is because the people here in singapore are complaining about not getting the jobs that they want, that those jobs are going to foreign talent, and hence we are seeing all those visa requirements and minimum wages being raised. yvonne: yes, they want to hire local, so it is not easy. as that story has highlighted here. in hong kong, unemployment spiking. given this covid zero strategy, how that is impacting the aviation sector as well. taking a look at the gmm function, that is where we will see stocks, bonds, a bit of pressure as we continue to wash
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide from silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology," with emily chang. ♪ emily: this is "bloomberg technology," snap shares snap back after a shortfall in late trading following quarterly results, why the company says advertisers are pulling back. elon musk just got closer to making his twitter dream a reality thanks t