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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  April 25, 2022 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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that it has been behind the curve and needs to step in. >> that number is the one you need to have in mind. >> i don't think they were really go beyond neutral. >> hawkish rhetoric's from banks around the world will not stop anytime soon. >> looking at 2023, it is only hiking interest rates. announcer: this is bloomberg "surveillance." >> good morning. this is bloomberg "surveillance ." down nine tents of 1% on the s&p. >> there will be a lot of individual stock moves. i noticed that netflix took off a couple to make history. it is recalibrate monday. i will predict that if they haven't already, everybody on the street is going to readjust
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and recalibrate after the ugliness of friday. you do it with the drawdown that we have got right now. is it a big deal? no. dow is almost at a correction. look at the nasdaq, particularly profitless. jonathon: this month alone, the nasdaq 100 down almost 10 full percentage points. that gets your attention on a week when we have a big week coming up. another that gets my attention is currency in china. you do not get moves like that very often in the affects market. tom: i just did the analysis because i have to be smart for yens -- jens nordvig. it's not a normal 3.2 standard deviation. that is a hugely managed currency by the government, by beijing, and it is a surge, a
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spite, whatever you want to call it arid -- call it. jonathon: we were talking about all these lockdowns in shanghai, now we are talking about beijing. lisa: it's a promo thought these major areas in china locking down. people cannot get out. they are complaining up food shortages. how much translates into the global economic bellwether? how this -- how much of this really leads to a slow down more severe the people previously thought? jonathon: this monday morning, good morning to you. on the nasdaq 100, down .7%. fears growing out of china is the big story this morning. yields head down seven basis points. the crude is down more than 7%.
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lisa: that's what captured my attention. yes, we are seeing a bigger decline since march of 2020, but this affected oil price as much as it is signified to the global economy a drop-off in china. today, as you mention mentioned, is going to be a really busy week of earning. coca-cola is coming in the next hour. activision is coming at 7:30. whirlpool is after the bell. how much do we get a sense of what we can expect for the consumer on the coke side as well as big tech? apple and amazon on thursday. will this lead to further decline in the really beaten up tech sector? antonio guterres meet with turkey's president in anchorage today. this is ahead of a meeting we are expecting between vladimir putin and the secretary-general of the u.n. people are really digging in their heels.
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at 10:30 a.m., a slew of economic data throughout the week. what i am looking at is any hints of what this means for that pce data that we get on friday, expected to chart a new post 1983 high. it came in at five .4%. each of these figures, how much hasn't really changed for long-term inflation, as we look to a longer-term fed packed? jonathon: the quiet period is kicking off in the federal reserve. many of you think that's it, you don't have to worry about it now. tom: hope we have some options to keep us going here. i noticed there was an auction over the weekend. with to touch quickly on the french election. i do think it is a big deal. it is a little raw for bloomberg opinion this morning. macron did not do as well this time around as he did in paris.
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he went from 66% to 58%. critically, and i know you have been watching this, those calculations, let's get those up your 70% of the left voted for the far right le pen. yep takes plane that me. jonathon: i don't think i can. micron acknowledged that he had been voted for because he is not marina le pen. tom: that is very micron-like. is there a shift again because of the seriousness of the war in ukraine? jonathon: did you bring this up to mention that this came around like it should've been? tom: no, no. [crosstalking] tom: i have been practicing,
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thank you. jonathon: we have the ceo of exante data joining us now. what is going on the chinese currency? >> when we analyze currency, it is typically about monetary policy. there's a number of important parts that are shifting dramatically. that finally comes to the fore here last week. for chinese standards, it is a very dramatic fee. i would say this is the most erratic we have seen not only since 2020, but more dramatic since 2015, only had that revaluation. it is not just the chinese currency issue, it is a policy issue.
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jonathon: is there policy you are expecting echo -- expecting? tom: -- >> it came from a pretty strong level. it was very strong in 2020 and 21, so this year should be at a level that is pretty strong. then, you think about allowing some degree of weakness and they are not doing anything on the fixed things or the day-to-day intervention. we tracked this in very real-time. we are not seeing anything that suggests they are about to start again. lisa: when you talked about the global aspect of the selloff, i was noticing that there was a relationship to the cny depreciation and the euro depreciation versus the dollar. do you make that connection as well? >> i think very often, when you
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see dollar and cny and, it directs a lot of other processes with it. it's kind of ironic that you have the french election relief. the dollar is lower because the chinese element is dawning on the day. tom: in 2005, in the great chinese appreciation, i think of europe in a 116 level as the original benchmark and may be the guidepost that all of european finance has. does beijing has -- does beijing have a 116 level? is there a psychological point for them? >> i think we have seen it during the trade war. they started to get very uncomfortable. i think they are not going to be overly concerned. when we start to approach seven,
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i think it will be a different situation. as with everything in markets this year, we have to be very careful. all cyclical dynamics we are seeing are pretty much unprecedented. we have to be careful about saying what we have seen in the past will happen in the future. we are certainly going to be ok. but we have to think about something really new and what's going on in china. it's not something we have really seen before. we have to be open minded. jonathon: final question for us. going forward from here, a lot of people want a read on chinese growth. what do you look for to get a pretty decent picture of what's happening on the ground? >> we are very, very focused on covid data. it is not easy to interpret, but mobility is pretty clean. we have seen dramatic stuff and
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shanghai and now it spreading around the country. just to give you one example, when we have these supply chain issues, it puts a question mark around chinese exports. can they really continue to export at that pace with the economy in a rolling lockdown situation? that is the big question and big uncertainty for the global economy. jonathon: thank you, sir, as always. absolutely brilliant. this is a big story at the moment. last week, when they cut the outlook for chinese money, most people asked why people weren't picking up on it. well, it is this morning. lisa: it simply because the war in ukraine is dominating all the headlines. people actually didn't believe that the people's bank of china would not step in more aggressively. frankly, the authorities in china would allow these types of shutdowns in major commercial
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centers at a time when they have already seen their growth decelerate. jonathon: that's a big picture there and what it could mean for the supply chains. the supply chain issues are not resolving themselves anytime soon. we hoped it would happen on the back half of 21 and it didn't happen. let's get that story pushed out a little bit more. tom: it's about global trade. the fact is, it is subsuming. that is on the backend of every gdp equation. are we readjusting to a lesser aggregate global trade? jonathon: equity lower this morning, down .9%. the nasdaq down .8% lower. we will catch up with sarah hunt a little bit later. a big week for big tech coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with
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news around the world. it is the highest level visit to ukraine since the invasion. more military aid was promised. the u.s. will start sending diplomats back to ukraine. micron has one another shot at convincing his people that his pro-european vision can work. he now has a second term. [indiscernible] a twitter executive said that elon musk's twitter bid is being more accepted. [indiscernible] in china, the coronavirus apra has grown worse. rising number of cases in
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beijing has sparked unprecedented lockdowns in the capital. in shanghai, it has already wreak havoc on that city. [indiscernible] the japanese conglomerate said it would open the door to potential buyers. [indiscernible] global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> in terms of russia's war aims, russia has already failed and ukraine has already succeeded, because the prince blame that president putin brought to this, in his own words, was to fully subsume ukraine back into russia. that has not happened and clearly will not happen. jonathon: the u.s. secretary of state over the weekend. good morning. futures are lower on the s&p and nasdaq 100. we are down .7% on the s&p. at the closest morning, shanghai over in china, the biggest one-day drop since february 2020. the lockdowns and shanghai now spreading to beijing.
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some weakness in the chinese currency. the treasury market, yields are lower right seven basis points. tom: i would say as a correlation to it all, i'm watching dollar strength here. the one thing that is missing here is yen weakness. jonathon: a bit of a growth scare. we have been downgrading our outlooks and growths and upgrading our outlooks for inflations. reporting just moments ago that the german government is set to hike to 6.1%. what they had back in january was 3.3 percent. that is the adjustment we have been making over the last few months. tom: as we talked about on friday, i think the duration of inflation is what's changing here amid central-bank silence. now let's go to anne-marie horgan in washington.
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maria, i want to go to the idea of russia attacking ukraine, ukraine attacking russia on ukraine. but there is this new thing percolating in the zeitgeist. that is ukraine beginning to attack russia in russia. how close are we to that? >> i think we have to be careful here because an explosion reported today in the morning doesn't seem to be a direct attack on russia just for the sake of attacking russia. this is a train that is essentially moved -- used to move heavy artillery from russia into ukraine it it seems like a tactical operation to prevent that flow of ripens -- of weapons from russia and ukraine. i would be very careful to say ukraine is attacking russia on that front. it seems like it is a tactical move to try to stop the supply lines from russia to ukraine. remember, this is a countries --
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a country completely surrounded by russian troops. tom: coming from crimea, let's move west there. is this a week where russia takes the black sea coast? maria: that's what they're hoping. this is what ukrainian officials fear the most. it is something russia has been after for 10 years now, especially strategically. if they take full control of the black sea, ukraine is isolated in words. tom, there is now this impression very much in europe today that putin once victory day fast approaching. remember, the ukrainians have said that if there are referendums, very similar to what happened in crimea, done in ukrainian territory, that is the end of peace talks. lisa: meanwhile, we heard about tony blinken visiting kyiv.
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there were talks we heard about from zelenskyy. and i what those work? annmarie: zelenskyy said they were fruitful, which bakes the definition of that. it was going to be military assistance, not just ukraine but others as well. a lot of that will be earmarked for kyiv. $165 million of ammunition, as well as the fact that secretary blinken announced that american diplomats will be heading back to ukraine with the process of reopening the embassy. this morning, a state official told bloomberg, we will get an announcement from the president about the envoy for ukraine and the current ambassador to slovakia. look out for that early this morning. a post we have not had in ukraine, but permanently since 2019. these were the deliverables. what i would say, and i wrote this down, i would like to bring this to you. there is one quote from secretary lloyd.
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he says, "we want to see russia week into the degree that it cannot continue to do the things it has done in invading ukraine. we're looking for russia to degrade." i think this is another step in the u.s. war or involvement in this war on ukraine soil. lisa: this is a dell to question, especially in the face of all the humanitarian issues and trauma we are seeing in ukraine. senator warren cannot over the weekend and talked about how the democrats will likely lose the midterm elections if they do not bring down inflation. how much are the democrats and politicians willing to accept to the pain in order to impose that toll on the russian government? annmarie: they are accepting the pain because it is happening. it is a global marketplace. when you look at supply chain issues, commodity prices, not just what's going on in ukraine. he started the show talking about what's happening in china. that's going to have immediate impact on the supply chain.
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but this is it just elizabeth warren talking about what is likely going to be a very difficult midterm election for the democrats. last week, the president said it himself. he said there is this lesson that democrats should have learned in the 2000 tends under president obama. they did not get out and talk about what they had done with the affordable health care act. the president said he is making that same mistake now. you can expect the democrats to come out and try to tout what they have done, like the bipartisan infrastructure agreement and other measures they were able to get across the finish line. but is that going to be enough? senator warren said it is not. jonathon: thank you. i need to get to the move in the effect market. this dollar in china. we've not seen this kind of move going all the way back to february 2020. we have had five straight days of chinese currency weakness. it is 656, a move of more than
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5%. tom: as you and nordvig said, this is a move. we have a weakening as we -- as we speak. jonathon: those kind of moves get your attention. >> especially because they follow the biggest appreciation since 2015. how much is this an exit us a foreign investment? yes, this is a controlled depreciation, because that is what they do, they control the currency, but you hear about the massive outflows from all assets in china. it is a game changer because they're sticking to the zero covid policy. jonathon: a lot to talk about this morning. we will talk to gilles moec and just a moment. dental little bit less in the united states.
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we are down about .8% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, we are down .7%. $97.98 on crude. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathon: free weeks of losses on the s&p 500 and nasdaq. we are down about .8% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, a big week for this particular benchmark, earnings coming up from alphabet and the likes of apple as well. look at that benchmark at the moment, down .7%. a lot of it has to do with china. take a look at what is happening in the chinese equity market. the equity market is down more than 5%. it is the biggest one-day move lower, going all the way back to 2020. a move that we did not see through last year, even with the weakness of the economy in china, this one is sparking -- is spooking a lot of people. a weaker chinese currency for the fifth straight day.
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you take that story, push it into the quality market, you get crude lower. push into the treasury market, we get yields heading south on twos, tents, and 30's. tom: they are all linked together here. i think over the weekend, it was very good on the linkage between the japanese yen depreciation, with rates in the united states and equity markets as well. that you and is a destabilize her. now, you have the yuan. jonathon: just a note on the front end of the treasury market. they went into a quiet period, pushing back just a little bit against the 75 basis point call. that is for them to move higher in a two-year yield almost 30 basis points higher. can we keep you awake? tom: i am trying to stay awake this morning. [crosstalking]
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tom: john, what is so important here is some of these speculations about rate moves by the fed. these are humongous moves. jonathon: humongous? tom: humongous. we will do more data through the way. right now, i call it stasis to the market with a fixed 29.86. there is always a topic to speak to gilles moec about, chief economist at axa investment. there are so many other issues to speak of. i want to talk about the nominal gdp realities of selective european countries. mr. micron has tried to bring a reformed capitalism to france and may be to all of europe as well. where are we on the european of malaise, coming out of all of this?
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is there a feeling that we can jumpstart you capitalism? >> i don't believe we can jumpstart capitalism because it has always been around, if not the same as in the u.s. what we can do is expect acceleration and potential growth. it is something we haven't had in a long, long time now. it might be starting. look at the labor market. it has improved throughout europe. related to her we were before the pandemic, it is up, it is improving. some of it can be related to the reforms micron started at the beginning. there has been some liberalization of the labor market. this is improving.
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what i think is happened is that in the pandemic, you had a number of people and companies which, for different reasons, did not want to partake in digitalization. they were forced to adapt. some may have finally started to adapt as well. tom: in the romance of the french franc, which i now believe is called the euro, do politicians need euro depreciation to get better economic growth? >> generally speaking in europe, we don't need a weaker currency, because it is already alive and well. europe is an export machine and remains that way. we don't necessarily need a recession of the currency to achieve that. it is quite far away from the measure you can think about. in terms of intro european
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discussions, if you want, we have some countries where exports tend to be a bit more sensitive to the rates, such as germany. for a number of countries in the e.u. at the moment, it is helping, this weakness in the currency. but just look at the surplus. we don't need that. lisa: we were supposed to see a euro bounce today. we thought we would get a loss at the victory of emmanuel macron. it is the opposite. the euro is the weakest going back to march 2020 versus the dollar. people are saying to forget about the election in france, let's focus on china. how big is the threat of a chinese slow down that has not yet been included in some of the projections? >> obviously, it is more of an issue for us than the u.s. china has been a major contributor to export growth in
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europe. it is one of the contributors of germany. if we have to slow down and china, it is definitely bad news for us. that may be one of the reasons why this is not turning very bright on europe right now. my guess of what's happening on the affects market by policy and divergence is that we have our hawks here in europe, but even they pale in comparison to what is currently being discussed at the fed. we have the feeling that they want almost and all cost [indiscernible] in europe, we are still discussing when, if at all -- all, when -- lisa: [laughter] hold on just a second. he picked up on exactly the point. we are seeing a hike.
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but what you did not hear from epp over the weekend is that if we raise interest rates today, it will not be bringing energy down. speaking to the skepticism among people like yourself, who perhaps think that the epp cannot raise rates. is that your thought, that we will not get to zero before year-end? >> to get to zero, you essentially need two hikes. i think at the moment, we are at a sort of sweet spot. the float in europe remains ok. we had surveys that are ok. they are all probably benefiting from this. they can see inflation is very high by european standards, even if it is a very different inflation than in the u.s.. there is no sign of the slowdown that we were all expecting
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because of what's going on in ukraine. they are trying to push the envelope a little bit. my hunch is that as we get closer to summer, my guess is that the inflation on income will be more visible and a bit more complicated to navigate. they will wait until the end of the year. i think they want to stop normalizing this. it would take a lot this year. the rate hike we have done one of bit more than 10 years ago in 2011. [indiscernible] you really don't want to mess it up. circumstances are different. we will get there, but may be
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more slowly than what the market is pricing for growth. jonathon: gilles moec, ceo of axa investment managers. it is unlikely the euro-dollar [indiscernible] when that happens, that depends as much on the chinese authorities as it does on the u.s. authorities. we have talked a lot about that and not enough about the former. lisa: exactly, the idea of systemic risk coming from income of policy decisions. are you saying that you think the u.s. authorities could potentially push back, that they are going to speak about a weaker dollar in this relationship or are they going to not intervene because it is an expression of weakness? jonathon: my interpretation, and we have spent a lot of time talking about the federal reserve tightening. we haven't spent enough time
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talking about the policy responses from chinese authorities, given the ongoing lockdown. that is the focus this morning. from shanghai to beijing, this has kinds of important implications for federal reserve policy. if we could have a delayed supply-side response, it gets pushed out into 2023, what does that mean for the federal reserve? lisa: do they tighten more quickly because the supply chain disruptions continue longer? it is nuanced. the concern from the fed about the strength of the labor market has been a diffusion of inflationary characteristics. if you get a slowdown in inflation being concentrated in affected areas, the conversation at the fed might be a little different and less urgent if they can parse out that level of nuance. jonathon: some people believe that there is a choice between a hard landing and prolonged inflation. [crosstalking] tom: dead on, john.
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static analysis. this is very much going to be dynamic analysis for every central bank, including a government/central bank in china that will wait for the data. what i would suggest is that with everything we have seen, the accumulation of our conversations is an extended. bang of inflation. it is tough to consume. after what they did this weekend, are you kidding me? 020. the spurs had zero shots on target. of course, it brought me back to our days in radio, where we would play some important facts kicking low-scoring [crosstalking] jonathon: do you have that? tom: i don't. we can say it is fast kicking. [crosstalking]
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jonathon: futures -.9% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. antony blinken and lloyd austin met with president zelenskyy in kyiv on sunday night. it was the highest level u.s. visit since russia invaded two month ago. u.s. promised more military aid and said that washington wants to see russian forces crown down. they cannot attempt a repeated war. france has given emmanuel macron a second term. he won more than 50% of the votes. that was barely more than half of what was back in 2017 many voted for mike rogers to keep le pen out.
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for the first time, global military spinning has gone over $2 trillion and is likely to go further as countries beef up their forces in response to russia's attack on ukraine. military spending has now increased [indiscernible] there are concerns at this burden coronavirus outbreak in china will push back global manned. [indiscernible] global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> russia has already lost many of its initial war ends.
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they have resulted in a stronger west-nato alliance. they are failing at virtually every one of their initial objectives. we will continue that trend. jonathon: the national deputy u.s. security advisor on nbc. good morning. fears around china our centerstage this morning. you have seen the lockdowns and shanghai. the fear this morning is that they will spread to beijing. that takes down that chinese equity market by more than 5%. it takes down europe market. we are down more than .9% in the s&p. it shakes things up massively in the fx market. the euro-dollar is -.6%. backing things up in the treasury market. if you are right about growth in the second largest economy in the world, you get this kind of move in the bond market. [crosstalking] tom: what's important john, some days, you're not going to look
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at the market. i would suggest we have to do that. we are not down for the lowe's this morning, but we are getting there rapidly. i'm sorry, it is a managed weakening. jonathon: and the move in crude, 4.5%. tom: we will continue to watch that. it is a substantial morning. joining with us as we calibrate, mr. pruden is speaking right now and russia. we will have that for you as we can. julie norman, with uco, we are getting into this war and being a bit numbed by the horrific images, by the back-and-forth, by the morning tally of this war. what is the new in this war on a monday morning?
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>> as you said, this is now going past two months. it feels like it is dragging on and it is probably going to be reality for some time. but the war is changing and it is doing so quite quickly. this morning and this week, we know that mario paul -- mariupol has been quite a move for putin geographically, as well as his ongoing military campaigns in the east and the south. we will be watching that closely. obviously, blinken and austin were in kyiv over the weekend. we are committing additional u.s. military aid to ukraine and other states in the region. that brings the u.s. total to about $3.5 billion in military aid to ukraine. i think it is really essential for ukrainians in what is expected be this next large defensive in the east where the fighting will take, a very
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different shape than it did previously. tom: focus on the importance of odessa. we have moved from the russian border through crimea, over to mariupol. as they move toward romania, there is a lot of really critical shoreline there. what do you anticipate to see their as we end april and move into may? >> this is the area that is going to be very crucial, i think, in the upcoming weeks. once mariupol falls, it is likely that in the south, it could lead to odessa. that could give russia complete control over key ukrainian coastal cities. it could potentially open up a path beyond ukraine, or we heard from russia over the weekend that there might be already some plans to maybe take some of the land there as part of a russian separatists region. that had previously been a fear
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that conflict would extend beyond ukraine, and that is one of the reasons why you -- why the u.s. is intent on making sure this does not extend beyond ukraine's borders. lisa: [indiscernible] more broadly, as military spending globally, particularly in europe, surpasses $2 trillion for the first time. >> what we have seen as a result of this war is a coalescing and strengthening of nato and especially european state commitments to nato within that. that was one of the real pushes of trump under his administration, to increase military spending and european countries. obama had pushed for that previously. this is the first time we are seeing that come to fruition and response to the war in ukraine. germany has really changed its position on military funny, not only in terms of its relationship with russia, but more broadly. i think we will see a much more
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robust expenditure in that area for nato and european nations. lisa: where is the spending? is it on cyber, submarines, do we have a sense of what the new front is in a war in the 20 20's? >> that's a great question. i think it will be a mix of all of those things. prior to ukraine, there was so much focus on cyber and technology. those are playing a role, but the war in ukraine has underscored the fact that traditional conventional warfare is still very much an issue as well. that is still where, at this moment, we need the most strength and resources. we are seeing that countries that have given a lot of weapons to ukraine are now needing to resupply those. those are much more conventional dead the new technology we have been looking at. tom: it is april.
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with professor norman, things are normal and jonathon: good, the jonathon: bold more orioles are in the last place, keeping the red sox out of last place. life goes on. is there a question you would like to ask julie norman? tom: no. the orioles are in last place, keeping out the red sox. jonathon: julie norman, we will let that one go. thank you very much. if you are tuning in just now this morning and wondering what's going on, don't worry, we are getting back on track. the nasdaq is down by .8%. speaking about what's happening in china, lockdowns spread from shanghai to beijing. that is why crude is lowered by about 4.5%. this week is a big week for big tech. nasdaq is down by almost 10% coming into today's session. this week, [indiscernible] i know you're focused on apple coming up on this thursday. lisa: how hd think they will
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talk about the disruptions coming out of china, how much their factories have to reduce output, whether they are seeing lockdowns in the factories? people are actually camping out and some of these production centers. still, you have to get them out of the ports. how are the ports going to keep operating a people are locked down? jonathon: we're looking for that real-time read for what's happening in china. tom: i like the linkages mentioned earlier. we are not there now, but we could visit a 106 handle euro. we are getting near a 106 weakness on euro. that is a huge deal to see. jonathon: on the dollar u.n., six 57.41. coming up, sarah hunt from alpine woods. the nasdaq 100 down by almost 10 full percentage points this morning, down another .9%. on the s&p 500, we are about 38,
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to negative .9%. from new york city with tom keene, lisa, and jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "surveillance ." this is bloomberg. -- ♪
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>> the fed has now understood that it has been behind the curve and needs to step in. >> the fed will bring down inflation. >> despite the tough talk, i don't think they will really go beyond neutral. >> this hawkish rhetoric from central banks around the world is not going to stop anytime soon. >> if we look into 2023, the story of slowdowns then is because of the hiking of interest rates. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.8% on the s&p. the situation in china shaking things up big time. tom: i think china really has a profound impact today, but there's also some real nervousness not t


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