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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  April 26, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> i sought nothing organic in the economy that would bring down inflation that means the fed to fight inflation. >> it will start to be more difficult. >> the fed will be able to continue to raise rates. >> calibrating fed expectations all year long. >> we have to be very careful. all the cyclical to nymex we are seeing are on -- all the cyclical dynamics we are seeing are unprecedented stop > this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: live from new york city for audience worldwide, good morning, this is number surveillance on tv and radio step futures are down 4/10 on the s&p 500. a big week for big tech. tom: the big document the just drops the schedule 13e for twitter.
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jonathan: give us the highlights. tom: a lot of lawyers had a lot of pizza over the weekend. the answer is it is radically complex. it's the -- if you look at microsoft and they been doing things simple. elon musk and twitter have to go completely opposite to get this transaction done to stop jonathan: can they close this transaction? it's an important question we still have to ask. lisa: we still don't understand what other equity investors might be on board. will elon musk have to pledge tesla shares and how will the timeline affect the price and how much will the coupon be on that debt and how much money twitter has to generate? jonathan: will it be a four profit business or a moral crusade. lisa: when you have a leveraged
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buyout, you have to move beyond moral crusade, you have to pay back the debt. much can you value this company at 44 billion dollars when there are no other bids. jonathan: earnings are out already this morning for pepsico following coca-cola yesterday. tom: i'm so busy looking at this twitter document that i missed that. ups is important and logistics matters what fedex and ups and what dhl does really matters to the tone of the economy. lisa: after the close, we will hear from microsoft. jonathan: we are down a half of 1%. i cannot get used to it.
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yields are lower by two basis points. 1.06 on the euro-dollar. euro-yet and has been strong yen and weak euro for the last 24 hours. these are the nuances. this is tangible. jonathan: the man from niomura is coming up in an hour's time. china is pledging to upper some economic support. lisa: maybe they can stave off some of the economic turmoil. the when general secretary is visiting moscow and we are
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getting images from that. the nato secretary-general will be speaking so how much do we get a sense of some sort of resolution to this? can we can expect a protracted conflict? we want to focus on the housing data coming out. we will be getting home price data around 9 a.m. and how much do we see a real acceleration in the price of homes even with mortgage rates at the highest going -- going back to 2010? if we see the acceleration in home prices, what does that say about what tight monetary policy looks like and how much more the fed has to do. it's a big tech earnings day. alphabet, microsoft and i love the word met because it makesa me feel existential. how much will cloud services
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move forward as advertising is more of a threat given the slowdown we are seeing. is that going to be proven a myth? jonathan: what are you talking about, you like to lean into the meta? lisa: it makes sense for me when i hear my kids talking about currency online. tom: i'm going to go back to 2019 and ups, 75 billion dollars revenue, 2019 and we are modeling well over 100 billion dollars in the next two years each year. these are revenue juggernauts and that's where you see the buyback for ups come in. these are destructive pre-pandemic leaps. jonathan: united and american,
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great numbers and they say second-quarter revenue is expected to be a record result. on friday, we will hear from exxon and many people will be up in arms about how much money exxon has made. there will be pushed back not building out capacity and not building supply but maybe exxon is not part of that story. what about the airlines? they are now minting money again and they refused to build out the capacity story. it's a big staffing and labor issue there. they are reluctant to bring the capacity back on anytime soon. tom: i'm good to go to the gates. there may be a huge airport constraint. i'm not an expert but in selected cities, i will pick on heathrow. there are major battles if you raise capacity, where you land your airplane.
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that something no other industry faces. jonathan: we talked about the airlines boosting capacity and it's hard to do that. lisa: it is more political given the transformation in energy and how much that is coloring some of the rhetoric around oil. i think there will be a lot of controversy there. how long before we start talking about dividends? tom: exxon ebita rounded up to 50 billion dollars. jonathan: first quarter energy for revenue 35 billion dollars. lisa: how much will these companies not able to mask their profits? the oil majors will say the profits are not that good.
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they look a lot better. jonathan: we will get more of that later. the global president of business intelligence joins us now. the board will recommend to shareholders, i want to understand from the elon musk financing position whether this is a transaction that will happen or not? >> that's a good question. i really wonder what the plan is with respect to the debt. a company this size cannot sustain as much debt as they are planning to raise. he wants to do something that would be negative for the business. i wonder because he's got to find equity to take that out presumably but other equity investors, will they be is
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oriented around less advertising in the business? lisa: do you have a sense of what other interest there is an equity ownership along the line mosque? i have only seen the reports you have. there is a lot of capital out there so it's absolutely not implausible. it stands out to me. tom: i'm holding up my phone and i have google play advertisement on twitter, 42 people had to put this together. is that what an elon musk ad will look like on twitter? >> another big question is is how involved with the product
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they are? how involved does elon musk plan to be? jonathan: it's about $2.50 worth of doubt where the price is in the free market. is that pretty normal? >> that's really wide. i understand the skepticism that is out there from what we've seen in the past. this is far greater uncertainty than other transactions i have seen. jonathan: great to catch up, let's talk soon. some doubt out there about two dollars of doubt. lisa: i would think that is exacerbated by the fact that this happened so weekly. -- so quickly. if it's done that quickly and
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there are so many uncertainties and potential controversy, i understand the skepticism. jonathan: it's important to go back to china. the lockdown is spreading from shanghai to beijing. the president of china is sharing a committee meeting. they are talking about infrastructure construction. we are familiar with those kind of headlines around moments like these. tom: there are serious issues in china but it comes down to their medical community is in a general state and unable to do this given the lack of the advocacy of their vaccines. jonathan: futures are down a half of 1% on the s&p 500 as well as the nasdaq. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: call it the 21 billion risk, where will he get the cash to buy twitter? he wants to pay 44 billion dollars. he's been short on the details of how to cover the 25 billion dollars equity portion that he personally guaranteed. he may get other investors remake sell some tesla stock. sergei lavrov warns that there is a serious danger of nuclear conflict. he said the risk cannot be underestimated any signal the kremlin is willing to talk to the u.s. to resolve the confrontation. the wants to widen access to its covid therapy pillow. tens of thousands of pharmacy will be able to order it and they will launch more sites.
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they can get pills and one stop and must be taken within five days of the onset of covid. general electric is turning toward the low end of its financing. ge is struggling with supply chain turmoil and the cost of raw materials. global news, 24 hours a day on bloomberg and quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the biggest second round effect will contain a pressure on commodity prices which will call for inflation pressure wish will remain for central banks to curb that inflation to manage either stagflation or possibly a recession. jonathan: futures this morning are negative on the s&p 500 as well as the nasdaq. yields are heading south by two or three basis points on the 10 year. an important afternoon for earnings. tom: we will go stateside right now. we have the chief investment strategist at charles swap --
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schwab. what are we doing with their money right now? we've got two once-in-a-lifetime events, a pandemic and a serious war. what do you see it charles schwab? >> is fairly steady. what we are seeing is consistent with some broader industry data on the interesting dynamic and relationship between attitudinal measures of sentiment. if aaii that hit the lowest percentage since 19 62. the kind of questions investors are asking's just concern. when you look at the flows, you have seen a pickup and some nervousness but nowhere near the same degree as what you see in the attitudinal surveys so not a lot of shifting around of money but an expression of concern.
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that's the complete opposite of what happened in march of 2020 when people were just dumping everything but didn't express as much concern. it's an interesting mirror image. tom: given the uncertainties out there, do you go passive and hide or do you try to find active management to get things done? >> we always advocate for a little bit of action depending what your overall objective is. the playing field is much more level now relative to the past i think there is improving opportunity for advocates to add relative performance here which is not been the case for many years. you are seeing a widening of more dispersion even among the super seven large-cap names.
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you are seeing it through earnings season as well. companies have missed earnings by at least 20% and have gotten hammered versus the companies that have beat more than 20% which have done better but not as well as is typically been the case over the last 20 years but i think there are opportunities for the first time in a while where it's playing on a level playing field. lisa: earnings have not been rewarded the way they normally have. do you see this as investors being forward looking or do you see this as people being overly pessimistic and not moving into real opportunities? >> in large part it's due to the sentiment environment and where we are in the monetary policy cycle with higher rates putting pressure on the market. there is speculative money that had fueled lower polity areas
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maybe not as playful in the market right now. it's a lot to do with where we are in the cycle but i think it is some sentiment and that creates opportunities. this custom is sentiment environment does provide some support. it's one of the few positive things you can .2. it's a shift toward the bearish camp and you normally need a catalyst to act as a contrarian indicator. lisa: do you see an opportunity with big tech as we expect to see strong earnings? >> it depends on how you defined tech. on it year to date basis the last three or four months, value factors that are outperforming. i look at the bloomberg factors on a day to day basis and there
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is that value dominance even in a sector like tech. i think you can still look and some of the soap called rozier sectors -- the so-called rozier sectors. if you say value and are looking for value, they say you're limited to the areas that are house and the value indexes. reverse example of that is humility. the utilities are more expensive by a wide margin than the s&p 500. they still live in the value this. you can look for value and quality and not limit yourself to what is in the value index. tom: ubs plans to double the amount of share repurchase for this year. give me the cash update. >> we had a record year last year. we were set up for that but you seen some companies start to
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back off of that whether it's the optics or some sort of political pressure. the company like ups is certainly a bellwether especially in this kind of market environment. maybe that suggests there are more productive uses for the cash from a longer-term capital spending standpoint. tom: what's important to understand is that lisanne sonders is the bellwether to listen to him radio because she has read the 400 pages on led zeppelin. jonathan: good day to you. the only way to minimize the economic financial and societal
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damage of long inflation is to err on the side of doing too much. tom: the wheelhouse not mentioned is the study of currency dynamics. currency has moved in the worry direction but we are not there yet you really wonder how currency folds into what you just stated with deutsche bank. jonathan: the dollar index is just south of 102 and dollar-yen is not far away. we are doing that parity thing again. lisa: how much of that has to do with the menton -- with the momentum in the economy? restrictive policy
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jonathan: live from new york city, good morning to you all. future shaping up as follows. we are down about 0.3% across the board here come on the s&p 500, on the nasdaq, too. your to date it is even worse. on the nasdaq 100 year to date, we are lower by almost 17%. pricing in a more aggressive fed . you'll up by 186 basis points on the two-year year to date. right now, 2.59 47%. today it is all about the earnings. earnings from the likes of microsoft, alphabet, facebook, amazon, apple.
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those five names making up about 40% of the nasdaq 100. tom: you wonder what they are going to do in terms of apologizing about how good business is. i will be looking at what they do with the use of cash. with the huge uncertainties out there, what is the kind of leadership they will give us on those conference calls? jonathan: we will not get a call with twitter later this week. we will get the earnings. i am fascinated to see what those earnings are, given that we will not get an earnings call. lisa: and because frankly, have you seen any consistent valuation of twitter? twitter took this deal at face value and ran with it. that would how you something -- that will tell you something. jonathan: euro-dollar with a 1.06 handle. i think even i have argued that was the goal. i would say this is not a goal right now for the europeans in the ecb, to have inflation where
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it is an euro-dollar trend or -- euro-dollar trending where it has been trending. tom: on the cusp of trending. any breakdown here will be of note. we got kailey this morning. jonathan: we get lucky. the cross asset price action with movers. here's kailey leinz. kailey: inflation really is the theme that drives all of them. ups up about 2.5 percent after profit beat expectations. they are facing higher prices but having success in passing goes on through price increases. as a result, profit coming in ahead of what analysts expected. whirlpool is an interesting one. the company cut its forecast for the top and bottom line due to inflationary pressures, can turn around a demand hit because of the economic environment and supply chain issues. it did announce a strategic review of its emea business, so that may be what is lifting
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sentiment this morning. different story for general electric, down more than 3%. it beat on the top and bottom line the first quarter, but for the full year, earnings are likely to come in at the lower end of the range. you guessed it, inflation and supply chain a big headwind for that company in particular. to bring it back to the twitter story, elon musk buying the company for $54.20 a share. it is still trading below that price, $54 -- he dollars $.91 -- $51.91. how does tesla stick factor into that? tesla basically unchanged at this hour. digital world acquisition corp. plans to take former president trump's media company public at some point. it was down 13% yesterday on fears about what musk's
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acquisition of twitter might mean. would that mean trump will return to twitter? fox reporting that is not the case. shares up 13% before the bell. tom: greatly appreciate that. a bit of a constructive market as well. right now, the parchment is from cambridge and the london school of economics, but far more, she's the united kingdom ambassador to the united states. karen pierce joins us, was extraordinary service to her nation at the united nations. you are so qualified ambassador to this question. is it every nation for itself right now mr. putin? karen: no, i think it would be a huge mistake to think this is the end of collective security, but putin has done serious violence to the international world order, as well as to
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ukraine. those bonds that bring nato together, the ties that bring the u.n. together, they are still there. there's damage because of mr. putin at the u.n., but i don't think this is the end of collective security. tom: the time of london today notes a partition here of ukraine using british weapons. does that bring the united kingdom closer to direct confrontation with mr. putin? karen: no, i don't think so. under the u.n. charter, which is the guide for international relations and international affairs, ukraine has every right to ask other countries for help, and we are responding to that. other nato allies like the u.s., france, germany, the czech republic, we are all responding so that ukraine can defend itself, not so that we can go and fight the russians, but so ukraine has all the tools she
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needs to defend herself. let's be clear, we are in this situation because mr. putin chose to violate international law and international norms and invade ukraine. lisa: this is a delicate question, but i wonder in the face of some of the unity that we see from the outside of nato how delicate the conversations are with the u.s., the united kingdom come with germany about perhaps curtailing some of the purchases of oil and gas from russia. karen: it is a difficult question, more for countries like germany then for the u.k. we only get around 3% to 4% of our fuel from russian hydrocarbons. the germans obviously have a much higher proportion. but gradually over time, we will work out a transition away from russian hydrocarbons, away from dependency. this is the sort of work that is being done in g7. it is not going to be overnight, but we are going to accelerate that transition. lisa: how important is it for nations like the u.s. and the
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united kingdom to help germany in this transition to ease the pain in the short-term as germany has come out and basically said the bundesbank, that they are going to go into recession if they ban immediately russian imports of gas and oil? karen: we are all helping on the collective security side. the g7 is helping countries like germany manage. . this transition -- manage this transition. the u.k. and the u.s. are doing more to get lng into europe. you can see a big lng terminal that will be piped to the u.k. and we will pipe it to germany and other countries in europe. so we are trying very hard. we have also released some of our strategic oil reserves. jonathan: from another time and place, there is the british navy. i think it has been under covered here. yes, there is the black sea, but there's also the tensions of
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finland and sweden. explain to us what the united kingdom can do to keep the seas open of the baltic sea and up north across norway to russia. what can be the projection the united kingdom can do to provide for peaceful northern seas? karen: that is such a good question. it is not just in and around europe, that freedom of navigation is under threat. we see that elsewhere around the world. but your absolute right, the freedom of navigation has been a central plank of economic develop intonations for centuries. as you also say, britain is a maritime nation. that is our history. it is in our dna. we take freedom of navigation very seriously. we send our ships around the world to uphold that right of freedom of navigation, as does the united states. so a large part of what we do in the baltic sea is about just being there and asserting the
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right of freedom of navigation. jonathan: just to reflect on germany's decisions over the last couple of decades, many people warned them about their dependence on russian energy. those warnings were ignored. you have clearly made a policy mistake. the greeks also made a policy mistake 20 or so years ago, and they were punished with austerity by the europeans. he had to make some terrible decisions that plunged their economy into a depression. why are we treating germany differently when they have made a policy mistake and seemingly, we have to wait for them to make their adjustments? karen: i think primarily that is a question for the european union. germany is still a member. we, of course, are not. i think everything we do now builds on what we learned before. we learn how to do things better. that is a continuous process. jonathan: thank you for your time today, ambassador karen piece. that was a piece from paul krugman in "the new york times."
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i think it is a very important question. if i was a greek politician, a greek citizen looking at how they have been treated over the last couple of decades, i would be very disappointed about the decisions made by german politicians and the free pass they seem to be getting from some in europe. tom: i don't have in front of me the notes, but there is still a rationalization going on in germany about how they got to this point. i would suggest is there is a profoundly new rationalization for the end of the french election. it is like a new day on a monday, on a tuesday. it is a new day for germany and france to coalesce a plan. jonathan: and also merkel as well. what leaves me scratching my head continuously over the last couple of months are the people treating this conversation as something new. who would have been able to tell that russia would have ended up doing something like this? there was warning after warning
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for 20 years. lisa: to your question about austerity, this highlights to me the need for at least the outside appearance of unity at nato. there has not been castigation, there have not been our people trying to lash into germany for past mistakes, at least not on the diplomatic level. they are trying to come to some agreement, even if that does not necessarily coalesce with past history. jonathan: the former finance minister of germany was seemingly very ok with watching the greek economy plunge into, or what many people regarded as a depression. at the same time we've got german politicians who want to avoid a recession, and they don't want to pay for the mistakes that have been made on their energy policy for the last two decades. i just find the treat into southern european countries versus the core of europe to be very different in a very different crisis. from new york city, we will catch up with patrick armstrong
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of plurimi wealth. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. it will be one of the biggest leveraged buyout deals in history. elon musk clinched the deal to buy twitter for about $44 billion. taking become any private is likely the first of what is to be numerous changes. he has cast doubts on the advertising model that accounts for the bulk of twitter's revenue. president biden may add a global food aid request to the military aid package for ukraine he is sending to congress. there's growing bipartisan support in congress for providing as much as $5 billion in aid. beijing has begun mass coronavirus testing of millions of its residents as part of an unprecedented scheme to squash omicron's spread before it
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spirals out of control and the chinese capital. nearly 20 million people will undergo three rounds of covid testing through the weekend. securities and exchange commission chair gary gensler has floated an idea to increase transparency and fixed income markets. he wants to slash the amount of time before trades have to be reported to one minute. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is a defining moment. our decisions in these days will
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shape decades to come. our response to russia's aggression today will decide the future of both international systems and the global economy. jonathan: that was ursula von der leyen, president of the european commission. futures are -0.4% on the s&p, on the nasdaq 100, too. after the close, you will hear from apple bet and microsoft -- from alphabet and microsoft. meta tomorrow. i can hardly wait to hear from mark zuckerberg. tom: just think if they merged. jonathan: meta and what? alphabet? tom: alpha meta. [laughter] jonathan: i cannot see that happening. tom: jon and i watching em. we now bring it up with joe mathieu. it is something a bit off the radar, but it just won't die. the gentleman from west virginia
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will not let the keystone pipeline die. we are balanced and all that. where is the keystone pipeline in the zeitgeist of mr. manchin and everybody else in the mathieu world? joe: it is bubbling. we would not be having this conversation right now if the white house took that more seriously. the $1.5 trillion that joe manchin said he was open to passing nine months ago would be even more than likely generated right now. so i do wonder if there is a little bit of remorse at the white house about this. but joe manchin says he's talking to republicans here about a climate energy bill so that democrats would not have to use reconciliation to do it.
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imagine a world in which republicans vote yes for a climate bill that came from the democratic administration. it only could have been with the help of the general and from west virginia. tom: what is so important here within the battle and the politics, greg valliere mentions this with agf this morning, how shockingly alone the progressives are right now. how alone is alone for the left? joe: i will also note that greg valliere, who i spoke with last evening, struck a note of optimism in his outlook for the week, suggesting that the doom and gloom we are all referring to everyday is a bit overdone, though if you are a progressive, this is a pretty gloomy moment as you watch elon musk take over twitter, assuming that deal closes, and wonder exactly what is left of the build back better agenda. if it is going to be dictated by joe manchin, then progressives are not likely going to be very happy, and we can add elizabeth warren to the chorus of those on
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the left door concerned about -- the left who are concerned about this twitter deal. she said it is is time for reform and regulation. lisa: jen psaki saying as a general matter, no matter who owns twitter, the president has long been concerned about the power of large social media platforms. the president has long argued that platforms must be held accountable for the harms they cause. why is elon musk's ownership so concerning for the democratic party? joe: isn't this something? the deal isn't even closed yet, and a full throated statement like that mentioning reforms to section 230, republicans said we have been talking about that for years. now the white house is on board with a potential attempt to reform 230. there are questions about whether the antitrust movement gets a little bit of energy out of this, but also whether that idea of reforming section 230
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can happen on a bipartisan level. you have to remember that democrats and republicans love to hate social media, but they do it for different reasons, and that could make any negotiating around this very difficult. lisa: on a tangible level, what is it that the democratic party objects to that elon musk puts out there? joe: that is a great question. i'm not sure they can articulate that. i think the concern is hearing how happy a lot of republicans are. they can envision a world in which donald trump is allowed back on the platform. but i think the problem is the uncertainty around what we call free speech. what does that mean for hate speech on twitter? what does that mean for some of the stuff we saw going back to the campaign in 2020? is that going to be a resumption of some of the problems? twitter has been problematic for a lot of people. tom: you did not get a briefing from anybody in washington on section 231, which is codified here in new york, which is i am not allowed to tweet during
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"surveillance." very important. section 231. tell me about the biden white house. it is getting to that point where the game starts about should i stay, should i go. where is that ballet right now? joe: cedric richmond is about to go, but it is to the dnc. there's a lot of question about what happens to jen psaki, the press secretary at the white house, who had signed on, we had been told, for a year. a difficult position to fill, and i think that is why the white house has been slow walking her visual departure. all the cabinet secretaries seem to be in place. even marty walsh is hanging. -- even marty walsh is hanging in a hotel in washington even though he might prefer to be in boston. jonathan: what do you make of this with the press secretary, that in all likelihood there might be a broadcaster who i won't name this morning who's planning a show for her? joe: i find it interesting that
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most of the hard questions about this, there have been questions about a conflict of interest. you are at the podium delivering word from the administration, but it is also widely reported that you will have a program on a cable news network when your time is done. most of the questions have come from not what -- from that network. there's concerned about the perception of jen psaki continuing to do this and walking into a network with that type of potential baggage. i don't know. this could be a new look for this particular job. tom: a new look here. can you see annmarie hordern as press secretary? jonathan: are you auditioning her now? are you suggesting that is the political party she might want to represent? tom: i don't know about that. jonathan: what are you doing here, tom? let's get serious about this. this position should be held right now by someone who is meant to unite the country, both sides of the political aisle.
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if you go to the speech over the weekend from emmanuel macron, there was an acknowledgment that he won because he was not the other person. you have to remember back to the election in the united states of america that a lot of people voted for president biden because he was the other person, and a lot of people excited him to govern that way. to have someone so partisan in the white house that they could walk across the road and start a job at msnbc after being the press secretary, i think more people should be uncomfortable with that than they are, and no one is talking about it because we have seen so much of that in recent history. tom: i would point out, as i did yesterday, 17% of the left voted for madame le pen. that is just stunning. those political divisions, and when it is all over, you have to govern for everyone. how distant are we from that? jonathan: joe mathieu, "sound
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on," weekdays at 5:00. looking forward to it. patrick armstrong, cio of plurimi wealth. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> said officials are trying to achieve the best version of something that looks like a soft landing that they can. tom: for the most part -- >> for the most part, the market is priced in for a 50 basis point rate hike. >> what is happening is very much driven -- >> we are still in that knee-jerk reaction. rates are going higher. growth is slowing down. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz


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