tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg May 2, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT
plus, warren buffett undertakes his biggest shopping spree at least a decade, slashing $41 billion in stakes, including chevron last quarter. happy monday. this follows a week to forget and perhaps a month to forget as well, with the worst performance i the nasdaq on friday since 2008. you might want to forget it, that it left its impact on markets. the me show you where we stand on financial conditions headed into this week. the gtv library. financial conditions at the moment, save for the pandemic, the tightest since 2018. this is king dollar rearing its head and the destruction in the stock market despite a fed that has had to raise 50 basis points the next few days. will they blink? let's dive into the markets to show you where we stand, it continues to be a story of a stronger dollar against the euro and the end. euro-dollar below 106 and yen below 130.
we will be talking about this in about half an hour. two year yields moving about two basis points higher, at the highest since 2018, owning a jump in the employment on friday. europe considering an oil embargo from russia. looking at the stoxx torah, a lot of markets closed today, china, -- a lot of stocks closed today. europe it is a game of catch up. u.s. stocks falling dramatically more than 3.5% yesterday, european stocks off again, the cash down to where u.s. equities coming back a bit. nasdaq futures up 7/10 of 1% as the earning season rolls on. that's get to our top stories this morning. emma will join us shortly to
talk about the covid situation in china. starting with china, where beijing will close cinemas and jim's -- gyms over the holiday. china sticking with the plan to stamp out the virus despite the impact on the economy. joining me is emma o'brien. cautious signs of optimism in china. when it comes to the shanghai and beijing outbreaks, does it look like it is getting better at all? emma: definitely on the infections, we are seeing cautious signs of optimism in shanghai. we have seen a second day of new cases under 10,000, a real improvement from where it was a week or so ago with more than 20,000 new cases per day. we are seeing accompanied easing
with that. they are not loosening the yoke anytime soon. beijing is seeing 40 or 50 a day. we are seeing the doubling in cases we saw in shanghai early on, which is a positive sign, but cracking down in the capital, closing dining in restaurants over the three-day holiday. really reining things in, hoping the beijing outbreak doesn't get out of control so they have to lockdown. dani: facing a lot of economic turmoil and that would have larger locations. thank you so much, emma o'brien. let's get the latest on the war in ukraine, nancy pelosi met ukraine's president.
she became the highest rank american official to travel to the country since russia's invasion. >> we are visiting you to say thank you for your fight for freedom. you are on the frontier of freedom and your fight is a fight for everyone. our commitment is to be there for you until the fight is done. dani: meanwhile, eu ministers set to hold emergency talks today as moscow continued to demand rules for russian gas or face supplies being cut off. -- demand rule bulls for russian gas or face supplies being cut off. john, how big is this cut off of russian gas? john: i think seriously, we are expecting the embargo on russian oil, that could come as soon as this week.
today, the main focus will also be on poland and bulgaria and what the eu responses going to be to countries that have been taking different approaches, whether they will sort out some sort of compromise were a payment in rubles will happen. the eu is expected more guidance on that. and howley bloc will -- how the block will up its storage capacity. that will be interesting to see. dani: thank you very much. the latest when it comes to the energy story and russia and ukraine. let's look at some key things market watchers will be keeping an eye on through the week. today we are expecting u.s. construction and spending manufacturing data, and on wednesday, it is the fed rate
decision. is 50 points ached and? -- baked in? the bank of england has a rate decision on thursday, and on friday, the latest unemployment and nonfarm roles data. let's bring in our editor. is this a recipe for volatility given the very busy calendar? eddie: absolutely. there is a lot of risks in the markets this week, everything from ukraine, earnings among the jobs report. the 10,000 pound gorilla in the room is the federal reserve meeting. i think the market wants to see if the fed will come back potentially with a 75 paces point hike at some point this year. maybe not this time around. i think the market has started to price that and we want to see
what comes from that. the fed wants to get on top of inflation and be ahead of the curve, it doesn't want to be caught sleeping. i think that does create the potential for a lot of volatility, even this week. dani: the fed aggressiveness along with a myriad of other reasons is part of why we have seen the dollar post-its best month in 10 years. at what point does the strength in the dollar have wider market implications and perhaps cause something to break? eddie: i think you nailed it. the dollar is a function of a more aggressive fed, certainly more aggressive than the ecb or bank of japan. we must not underestimate how much this will ripple across markets. indications for emerging markets , commodity prices. it may even take the sting out of inflation in the u.s. a little bit.
if you see arising dollar, the cost of imports decreases a bit. i think this is probably the biggest story, underpriced story in markets at the moment. dani: eddie, thank you very much , up early for us on a monday. we will continue the market conversation with our guest. she will bring her views on how the fed is likely to active this week and more. plus, china maintains its covid fight as the virus doubles the economy, considering the lockdowns. we will be speaking with president of the eu chamber of commerce in china. this is bloomberg. ♪
fed chair jerome powell expected to shift the needle this week on how high investors expect the u.s. central bank to raise interest rates. powell and colleagues are trying to cool surging prices without triggering a recession, but it has triggered a selloff in equities. joining us is someone who likes stocks. maria, worst month for the nasdaq since 2008, worst a single day for the s&p 500 since 2020. how difficult is it to be a bull right now? maria: very difficult. what we are trying to think on, obviously financial conditions have tightened. what is left for equity bulls like myself is corporate earnings. corporate earnings have been good, and the vast majority of companies exceeded expectations, so it has been tough for companies. they reported good earnings and
have done quite well. we're trying to seek out companies with better underlying earnings and the stability of earnings, quality of earnings, and companies able to pass higher prices to the customer. large brand names, large companies able to do that. dani: let me challenge you a little bit because one of those companies in the past you would have said exemplifies that is amazon, but they presented the story of growing growth, they saw their stock plunge the most since 2006. when you look at something like that, doesn't not concern you? marija: absolutely. the consumer is key when thinking about higher prices. we are seeing a little bifurcation in terms of consumers. on aggregate, the consumer still has cash, has not spent covid
savings, but it is unequally distributed. companies which are selling to higher income consumers, the apples of this world, they can maintain margins. companies selling more broadly, that tends to be more difficult. dani: when you then look at the past week we've had, the past month and you still have confidence about the consumer, you must get a little excited about some of the blood on the streets. where have you seen some of the most severe spots where it is an attractive entry point? marija: there are opportunities. we are always big fans of tech. it is a good long-term story. i take all of your points. that is a sector that has been
investing the most in the last decade. very solid marches and able to defend them. i think in the long run that is a good story. the other thing that helps, the other stories is the idea that long-term growth opportunities -- the flattening of the yield curve tells us over all there are opportunities, maybe not as we would like. we have to focus on companies that can deliver growth and strong earnings. after a while, we will probably see tech is one of the sectors that can do that longer-term. dani: are they immune to, for example, the employment cost index? we care about that because the fed said they care about it, rising the most since at least 1995? marija: that is true and it links us back to the discussion about financial conditions, and
how they have tightened. we are beginning to get the feel that we are getting close to hawkish in his. the fed is very hawkish. probably will raise rates by 50 basis points and reaffirm a commitment to fighting inflation, but a lot of it is in the price as conditions have tightened. potentially maybe we are getting to hawkish and us -- hawkishness and any sign of weakness would eventually start taking the yield curve flatter again. if we are in this world where we have priced as much as we can from the fed, that potentially can -- dani: if we are close to peak hawkishness, our bonds attractive for a hedge?
marija: [indiscernible] dani: if you want to hedge some of the destruction in equities and you are bullish in equities, where are you getting the protection from in the meantime? marija: health care is our favorite defensive sector. that is one sector that has an easier time passing higher costs to customers. a lot of the customers are government and insurance companies, maybe less price sensitive. health care had a good couple of years. prices have come down. health care is our favorite sector. dani: you stick to your convictions. even with short-term damage. stick with us, much more to come. let's get to the first word news with alice atkins in london. alice: china's economic activity
contracted sharply in april as covid-19 restrictions hit hard. factory output hit the lowest level in more than two years with the official manufacturing pmi falling to 47.4. it was the first to reflect covid lockdowns. saudi arabia's economy grew at the fastest pace in more than a decade in the first quarter thanks largely to booming oil prices and increasing output. gdp rose by 9.6% year on year, the highest figure since 2011. hungary would veto any european proposal that leads to the restriction of energy imports from russia. according to a senior minister. a cabinet minister says they made it clear they will never support extending sanctions to energy. the eus set to propose a ban on russian oil by the end of the
year, with restrictions reduced -- introduced gradually until then. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much. alice atkins here in london. coming up, more analysis of how china's zero covid policy is impacting the world economy and global supply chains. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
lingering effects of covid, including lockdowns in china, have an impact on the economy and is this confidence. >> we should be able to manage from a supply chain perspective. >> for production shutdowns to extend into may, there would be further negative impact on those supply constraint positions. >> we are seeing green shoes with the government indicating cases are coming down and so far it has been minimal impact. >> we see no reason to slow it down despite some short-term dislocation because of the omicron variant. overall, we remain big china bulls. dani: executives discussing the situation in china. let's continue the discussion with our guest this half-hour. i was looking through your notes, to words you put, avoid china. do any of the measures that xi
has announced or verbally talked about or easing from the pboc, do those shift your mind? marija: there are two reasons to avoid china, particularly in the equity i have to say -- equity space. there has been a lot of words and not a lot of actions. we are waiting for that. there are a lot of question marks. the second is earnings and they are still struggling. looking at earnings season in china, or than half of the companies missed expectations. with this covid wave, companies kind of restarting growth. the pboc action, it is very welcome, but nobody is going to borrow as long as we are under covid restrictions covid is the
first thing that needs to be resolved and reopened and then we can take advantage, companies can take advantage. but you cannot look at the current and expected growth. this -- it is still too early, and looking at stock connect flows, they are very timid investors are not coming back here. dani: what about investors and companies with china exposure? we were showing a graphic before this one that had the companies mentioning china in earnings. do you look at these kind of companies and say china is going to have a big impact? there is the full-screen. marija: some of those companies we like, particularly larger cap companies. for me, it is really where the
chinese regulation is going to bite the most. on four shall he that's the vast majority of -- unfortunately, that is the vast majority of businesses. a lot were sold on the idea that we have this horrible covid wave in china and the government is taking a very strict approach to dealing with it but it is hurting growth. we know the slow down will ultimately work, it is a way to eradicate covid in the short-term. demand will come back. dani: i wonder, when you judge china, it is a negative story when it comes to the commodity and energy complex because of the lack of demand, and then you way that --weigh that against europe and an oil embargo.
where do commodity stocks go from here given these two very different inputs? marija: we are still constructive on commodities and and very important point for us in commodity stocks is that commodity stocks have lagged commodities. there is some catch up there. the underlying commodity story, a lot of pressure we are seeing right now. we tried to remove russian oil and there aren't many other opportunities to increase supply. that comes back like a decade of underinvestment. it is a lack of in previous years that does not allow us to increase production right now. that is where the problem is and that is the kind of long-term problem that cannot be resolved quickly. supply is still -- we had a
challenging supply condition even before the russian war and now it is much more difficult. we are still constructive and we still see under supply in this market. underlying commodities can perform and stocks needed to catch up even to the current level. dani: i just want to jump in since we only have about a minute left. given the lack of investment in infrastructure and the energy complex in europe, if we see an embargo, is a recession or stagflation next? marija: europe is in a very difficult condition. along with china, it is one of the reasons to like underway. it is a difficult situation. i hope it won't go to a recession given other parts of the world, given the reason for the challenges europe is facing. there might be some kind of pressure to be alleviated.
it is a difficult investment case. would rather be in the u.s. dani: discussing all the difficult stuff with us. thank you for joining. coming up, the dollar resumes coming up, the dollar resumes its advance a (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo.
dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london. economic havoc. china's factory and services activity plunges amid lockdowns as president xi try to support growth. germany says it could reduce reliance on russian oil by late summer. hungry vows to veto any eu sanctions on the nation's energy.
plus, warren buffett undertakes his biggest shopping spree in at least a decade, $41 billion in company stakes. warren buffett might be buying, but plenty of you are selling. an ugly month and ugly week last week, and here is what is waiting in the markets. financial conditions are the tightest since 2018, save for the pandemic. i was just talking with our guest about this. her thesis was essentially, we are nearing peak hawkish and is. if we are in a scenario where financial conditions are the tightest since 2018, which is when the fed previously stopped is tightening cycle, perhaps we have priced the full is -- full extent and we see some of the pain ending in markets. let's get into these markets and get a check on the cross asset picture. dollar continues to strengthen. more on this in a bit. euro weaker, yen weaker,
declining about have a percent versus the u.s. dollar. a two year yield continues to move upward, selling in two year yields at a level with the yield the highest since 2018 with the employment cost index report on friday fueling at the most since 1995 off the brent crude, down 1% with europe looking at the end of russian gas imports. a lot of markets closed, the u.k. on holiday, as is china, as is the middle east. it is japan's last trading day of the week. similar to the s&p and nasdaq. the worst day for the s&p on friday since 2020. that's what we are seeing in the euro stoxx area because most of the declines came when europe was off-line. catch up this morning, down about one and a quarter percent. let's get back to the dollar story. this has been the asset for volatility the past week. the dollar has resumed its advance at the start of the week
and it is a week likely to see a global round of rate hikes. the dollar approaching the highest level in about two years, or 20 years if you are looking at dxy, traders putting on a 50 basis point hike by the federal reserve on wednesday. christian, good morning. when you look at the dollar versus the yen and the euro, at what point, or will be even see intervention? christian: i don't think we are in for intervention anytime soon. we heard from kuroda on thursday. the bank of japan is quite happy about the weakness of its currency because it helps it achieve in inflation target. we will be at 1.9%, and to the surprise of many, he reiterated he is happy to see the yen weakening. euro-dollar, there was
intervention more than 20 years ago. we are very far away from that. i don't think we are in for intervention anytime soon. dani: i find the point about kuroda interesting, because you could say a weaker currency is good for exporters, but is that even true in this environment given exporter pain with supply constraints? christian: that is a fair point. i think there are more concerns about getting the inflation target of 2%, hitting it. it is a once-in-a-lifetime chance. japan has had chronic disinflation and deflation and we will be at 1.5% and they think this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance of hitting 2% on inflation. dani: we are not going to have you on the program and talk about the yen without trying to get a call from you. could you see the yen weakening to this to extent? christian: we thought they would
do something on thursday, we were more keen on shorting japanese government bonds than the end, but frankly we've been wrong. the press conference on thursday , they prefer the weakening of the yen and i think it will continue a while. dani: sounds like there was a dog in the background agreeing with you. if we do see 150 on the yen, these are unprecedented or near unprecedented levels. at what point does this volatility in the fx complex break something? christian: well, it would have an impact on u.s. financial conditions, so that is something to watch. we just heard that financial conditions in the u.s. are tightening but i think you have to look at that in real terms. financial conditions are tighter than a couple months ago but at the same time, we have rising inflation. real financial conditions in the u.s. are not very tight yet. i think before that starts to
break something, we need to see movement and currency and rate market in the u.s.. dani: last we talked, you are on your way to d.c. for the imf spring meeting and one of your big fears is this global fragmentation we are seeing in the world. given the imf spring meetings, have your concerns been alleviated? christian: not at all. i've been going to these meetings for 22 years and these were the gloomiest i've been to. the buzz word here is one that janet yellen launched at the atlantic council. it is no longer about free or secure trade, or about off shoring or globalization, but -- shoring and block building. i think that is a negative development in medium-term for the global economy and a disentanglement from china and
also russia and it left me quite gloomy on the medium-term prospects for the world economy. dani: you get more hint of it over the weekend, right? europe talking about finally getting off russian oil and gas by the end of the year. germany says they can do it by summertime. walk me through that scenario and the impact we would have from a russian oil embargo out of the west. christian: what we heard over the weekend as germany is ebbing up resistance against an oil embargo imposed by the european union, and the reason for this is the work our minister of economy has been doing, gaining independence from russian oil. especially in cooperation with others bit we brought down the dependency down to 12%, a great job of the government has been doing and it means we will not be blackmailed by russia.
we are making further progress gaining independence on gas. that is more difficult because we need lng terminals and we haven't got those yet. we are in probably four and embargo against russian oil that will take its toll on the european economy and could contribute to further weakening of the euro, but would be insufficient to drive europe into a full-blown recession. if we were to get an embargo on gas, that would change things a lot and we would have to curtail industrial use of gas, shut down plants, and it could have a severe impact on economic activity. dani: i asked for your yen call, let me get your euro call. how ugly could things get for euro-dollar? christian: there is a chance we are headed toward parity. let's see what we get later today. we have a broad weakening of the world economy. we had terrible pmi numbers out of china, they dropped 2.1%,
both the national survey and another survey. it is recession territory for the chinese economy. europe is very much dependent on trade with china, export to china is really coming down. there is a chance we could go toward parity in euro-dollar. dani: christian, always great to have you on. thank you for joining us. let's get to the first word news with alice atkins. alice: u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi met with ukrainian president zelenskyy on saturday. she said it sent a message to the world that america stands firmly with ukraine. she is the highest u.s. leader to travel to ukraine since the invasion. >> we are visiting to say thank you for your fight for freedom.
you're on the frontier of freedom and your fight is a fight for everyone. our commitment is to be there for you until the fight is done. alice: china's economic activity contracted sharply in april as covid-19 restrictions hit hard. factory output hit the lowest level in more than two years with the official manufacturing pmi falling to 47.4. it was the first set of data to impact covid lockdowns. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: alice, thank you. coming up, german chancellor olaf scholz planning to woo the indian prime minister with a special invitation to the g7
dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." german chancellor olaf scholz plans to invite india's prime minister as a special guest to a group of seven leaders summit held in germany next month. it is a bid to sway germany -- sway india into joining the alliance. we are joined by our government reporter. is the g7 invite, how significant is this in terms of a gesture to india? >> i think it is a strong gesture basically to invite
india to the g7 meeting. but it is behind the backdrop of russia, and the growing fear, especially here in berlin, that after russia, the world is getting more divided into two separate blocks. obviously everybody is watching very closely what india is currently doing and they are remaining neutral but not applying the sanctions and not condemning russia. there has been a debate of how to basically treat russia and india in this context. at the beginning, germany was considering not inviting india and somewhat punishing india. but i think olaf scholz has turned around, given the strong independence of germany on international trade, on asia and india, that he does want to
reach out and send a clear signal that the west still seeks close ties with india. dani: all right, thank you very much for that update. european capitals also reassessing relations with china in the wake of russia's war in ukraine. same time, china's attempts to rein in covid are having global repercussions on supply chains and inflation. joining us is the president of the eu chamber of commerce in china. you take polls of european corporate attitudes about china. what is the future of european investment in china looking like? >> we have our big survey coming out on thursday and the data set is very grim. one thing is clear, we are not leaving china, but we are putting additional investment in
china on pause because geopolitical uncertainty drives the question. we have also the problem that top executives cannot come into china. they can fly to jakarta, manila or singapore. this not exchange of top executives does not entice when you can't visit investor locations. basically dispersing it where they can get. dani: you described it as a pause. will there are wonder -- will they are or won't there be permanent scarring? joerg: nobody can walk away from china. china cannot be replaced. if you want to replace those clusters, you can go to other countries and pay more than halve logistical difficulties. at the same time, the quality china is driving, the
unpredictability is out of the window. that is driving decisions to be hold. that will show in one or two years, these investment decisions. when it comes to orders and buying from china, we see members re-shifting to source from other countries because they don't know if there is going to be another lockdown. when it comes to china, people are reconsidering what to do in many cases. dani: it is fascinating because the made in china story had been a huge engine of growth when it came to the country and the unprecedented growth they had seen. if there is any alteration to that story, can china continue to prosper without the participation of the west? joerg: they can, but on a much lower level.
china is deftly going to underperform. -- definitely going to underperform. china has been a big winner of globalization. when politics takes preference over economics, the government is willing to take that kind of pain just to become a little more independent from western sources. there was the trump shock as well. the growth model they've seen the last 20 years will be a thing of the past. dani: that squares with the contraction in the april databook, manufacturing and services plunging to the worst level since february 2020 to at the start of the pandemic. is it possible to turn the picture around if zero covid is still in enforcement in china? joerg: not at this stage. we see no change in the zero covid policy and we are facing
2022 a little whack-a-mole. we have sanctions and lockdowns. many parts of china, omicron is known for spreading fast, and we might have a similar situation. will china vaccinate better and open up, will it change policies in order to join the world in opening up again? i don't see it that this strange -- this stage. they are trapped in zero-tolerance and are finding it difficult to get out of it. dani: people have said maybe china looks at a more flexible covid zero, you keep the name that perhaps how you enforce it is different. are you saying we are not likely to see that and they stick with a strict lockdown and enforcement we've seen the past for years? -- few years? joerg: i have sympathy for the government not opening because the level of protection for its
people is not as good as it hoped for. particularly those 60 and above. vaccinated with one shot or unvaccinated. they have to be better at vaccinating these people, and feeling more secure that people can deal with omicron. that might take six to nine months at least. at this time, i don't see that opening up is in the cards. when are you back in business? we want predictability. dani: i want to discuss russian sanctions and the impact on china. what are the risks the west imposes sanctions on china for their support hollande to russia -- support they lend the russia? joerg: energy costs went up and
their companies have largely disconnected from the russian market. to my knowledge, and i am married to a russian businesswoman that has a lot of insight, the chinese are actually following the sanctions to the dot. there is no reason at this stage to impose sanctions on china. but you never know, there is kind of rhetoric and the fence sitting of china, it might cause changing discussion back home. at this stage, i can only say no need for sanctions because china is doing it quite well. dani: if only i could be a fly on the wall at your dinner table, i am sure it is interesting. we appreciate your time. president of the eu chamber of commerce in china. coming up, bargain-hunting, warren buffett with his biggest shopping spree in at least a decade.
dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." on saturday, in omaha, nebraska, berkshire hathaway held their annual shareholder meeting, the first in person since 2019. laura, always a big deal. woodstock for capitalists. laura: this is the largest of buying spree since records began at berkshire hathaway. one of the primary reasons for this is warren buffett seized buybacks as less attractive than buying companies in the current
environment. he said that cash wealth is like oxygen and cash is just over $100 billion on the balance sheet, less than the $144 billion at the end of 2021, but so far above the threshold for warren buffett at $30 billion. warren buffett still vehemently against that coin, admitting he -- bitcoin, and many he likes productive assets. inflation, while it swindles every way -- everyone according to him, the portfolio at berkshire hathaway has allowed them to transcend supply chain woes and inflation. dani: the idea that ibex are not as attractive, during the pandemic, buffet put on hold buying companies. what have we learned about berkshire hathaway's stakes in the first quarter? laura: they increased their
stakes in also dental petroleum -- occidental petroleum. most notably chevron. activision blizzard, microsoft put a bid for the country at $69 billion, a classic deal arbitrage play for warren buffett. he has increased the stock to 9.5%. signaling his conviction that the deal will go through. dani: laura, thank you. rounding up that event in omaha. as we close out the hour, we continue to look at european futures moving lower, playing catch up with the u.s. story on friday, and ugly day, the worst day for the s&p 500 since 2020, the start of the pandemic. cross assets continue to be about king dollar.
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>> good morning, welcome to bloomberg markets europe. cash trade just less than an hour away. economic havoc. china stock send service activity plunge. and germany says it could reduce reliance on russian oil by late summer. hungary vows to veto any eu sanctions on the nation's energy. warren buffett underta
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