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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  May 3, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is european markets the with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: 30 minutes until the close this tuesday. let's talk about the price action. european stocks are up. london is playing some catch-up but still flatlining. the stoxx 600 is up. 445. the german bund at 1% at one point. since then, bonds have been catching a bid. even the euro is catching a bit today. 1.0539. we are up by 0.3%. maybe a bit of prefab meeting
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jitters peeping into this. kailey: we are expecting the fed to hike 50 basis points tomorrow, but the market looking like it doesn't know what to do ahead of that. some fluctuations in the equity market. the s&p 500 is up .2%. in the bond market, a break up percent on the 10-year yield for the first time since 2018. down six basis points on the 10-year right now. we are not just paying attention to the nominal yield but the real yield as well, in positive territory, although less so than 24 hours ago. five basis points in positive territory on the real yield. the dollar has been materially stronger for some time, but on the libido weakness coming through today. the bloomberg dollar index trading down a little bit. guy: here in europe, we are
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focusing on whether we will get a russian energy ban. the eu working on an agreement to embargo russian oil imports. significant pushback coming from a number of eastern nations, particularly hungary. a number of these nations are very dependent on russian energy. for more, let's bring in kevin whitelaw. how close are we to getting this done? >> we expect to get a formal proposal to the offer maybe as early as tomorrow as we try to make sense of what exactly the block will be able to agree on. we expect a gradual oil than as a part of this but what additional flexibility or later deadlines for that phase out will receive our countries like hungary and slovakia who are saying they cannot handle getting off a russian oil by the end of the year? kailey: is what we are more
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likely to see is a country bike country basis rather than a coordinated move? kevin: i think it will be largely europe with a couple of exemptions, additional bits of flexibility. exactly how it will work out, we are waiting to see what they are trying to do. that may take a day or two for various member countries process. they do need unanimity on it, so they have to balance the countries that have reservations about the ban, as well as those that are demanding that they go ahead and ban russian gas. that is something that a number of european countries are not prepared for. guy: mario draghi talking about maybe we need to rethink foreign policy and unanimity. feels like a long way away. let's talk about the calculation around the economic impact of all of this. do we have an idea of what economic impact banning russian
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oil will have on europe? kevin: everyone understands it will be a hit. it will come both in the price and in potential shortages. i think the calculation is that, for the most part, a russian oil ban will be painful but manageable. it is the gas cutoff that has european capitals much more concerned. we are watching that play out over the sum of the current cutoffs as europe grapples with this demand for the russians to pay for their gas in rubles. kailey: a pretty complicated and still evolving story, thank you. ukraine's war is having an impact, something that the cfo of bnp paribas is watching. we spoke to them on the back of their earnings. >> the situation on the eastern borders of europe, we believe it
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may lead to some slowing down in the economy which is temporary, which should pick up again. that should be similar in the markets. kailey: joining us now is david herro, chief investment officer for international equity at harris associates. thank you so much for being with us. talking of the war and its economic implications for europe, where do you put the of a recession on the continent this year? david: i still think recession in europe is still relatively low. you have the crosscurrents, the negatives of the more, but also the positives, the reopening of the global economy, in fits and starts, but certainly in europe in particular. this will provide some support given what is happening with the war. keep in mind, consumer spending
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is a major determinant of economic growth. the european consumer, american consumer are very strong, high employment, high savings, lots of pent-up demand. i believe that this will be able to keep the west, europe, the united states come out of the discussion. guy: if we get a gas embargo, does all of that get thrown out of the window? is that a stagflationary environment? if so, how would you invest around the? david: a gas embargo is different from an oil embargo. oil is much more transferable, fungible. russia provides about 7% of the treated oil, but gas is different. it has to come via pipelines. europe has made itself dependent
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in many instances, 40%, on russian gas. any disruption will not be able to be corrected easily in the short-term. in the medium and long-term you can find supply. but in the short term, what you have to watch are those industrial businesses which are dependent on gas. every country is different, every business is a little bit different. you have to look at it company by company and make adjustments where warranted. kailey: if you are the ecb, you have to look at europe as a whole. while you have growth slowdowns on the one side, you have inflation fears on the other side exacerbated by these issues. what is your presumption about what the ecb will do this year because that will feed through the thesis on european banks. david: monetary policy has been lower for longer, relaxed since the global financial crisis.
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i think this paradigm is coming to an end, no matter what happens, and with the war and energy prices. you have too much money chasing too few goods. now that you have a european financial system that is fully capitalized -- keep in mind, post global financial crisis, the capital on banks balance sheets was probably one third where it is today. over the last 10 years, these banks and financial institutions have rebuilt their capital. now, the money that it earned in the course of business can be used to grow their business and reward owners. this is a hugely different paradigm we are facing the next 10 years versus what we had the last 10 years. guy: what is the relationship between european banks and the european economy? it still looks pretty tight. i appreciate that they are fully capitalized, but nevertheless,
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european banks have always been the play on the economy. david: they have been this play since 2009,2010. people used a basket of european banks as a kind of trading toy. at some point, you'll see some separation, especially when you see these banks with 14% tier one capital. as a result of this economic uncertainty, you may have some elevation of deteriorating credit quality, but it is still at a very low level. in the meantime, the higher interest rate should provide plenty of additional earnings and income to make up for the additional deterioration in credit conditions. kailey: that is european banks as a whole.
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let's talk about one that has had a rough go of it, credit suisse. how long will it take to fix the bank? is the ceo still the right man for the job? david: clearly, this is a company that has needed a reformation that it is currently undergoing, meaning they have had a collection of managers that were not up to the job. starting with the old chairman who presided over a lot of the issues that we have seen today. he left a year ago. but we have seen in the last 18 months is a complete change in terms of the key managers, certain board members. this is all positive. but what has to happen at the bank now is, all of these little potholes that it keeps driving in, this has to stop.
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luckily, but we have seen in step one has to be to make sure that the company has the ability and the skills to run the bank in a more error-less way. stop unforced errors. number two, the bank has made great progress in this. then you have to start growing the business again. they have a very strong private bank. they have certain franchises in the investment bank. first, they need to make sure they have the systems, people, structures in place to build a base which they can grow from. guy: there is some talk of breaking up hsbc, putting its asian operations in asia, listing in hong kong, putting the rest in london. a, what do you think of that argument? b, could you apply that argument to credit suisse?
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what do you think the breakup value of credit suisse would be? david: i'm not a shareholder of hsbc, have not been for some time. i have been following the news stories. in many instances, you can make arguments in companies that the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. we own a stock, other businesses, where if you broke them up, they could be worth more. credit suisse definitely has valuable assets. they have a swiss universal bank. at this stage, instead of credit suisse worrying about breaking itself up or selling assets, step one is to make sure you have people and processes in place of which to proceed forward. proceeding forward is growing your business and doing a thorough analysis of the businesses in which you are in, whether they make sense in your
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hands or whether they make sense in someone else's hands. step one for credit suisse is stabilization, get out of the news, fill the gaps in human resources where it is needed. step two, look for places to grow, optimal business structure. we are getting through phase one, by the way. the old chairman who left, not the one who left last spring, but this spring, actually put steps of putting in talented, able people in. but this takes time. meanwhile, you have a financial institution treating well under one half of its tangible book value. about 4.5 times normal earnings. there is the case if they can get through the banana peels and potholes, there is substantial upside here. guy: stick around.
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i would like to carry on the conversation if we can. we need to talk about what is happening stateside. we would love to get your thoughts on that. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: we are just getting some headlines from the supreme court with -- which i'm worth bringing to you. justice roberts has directed the marshal of the courts to launch a probe into the document that was leaked. the supreme court is now confirming that that document that was leaked yesterday is authentic. we were wondering about that. that has been confirmed. justice roberts is saying he is directing the marshal of the court to launch a probe.
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we will get more headlines on them. as we get them, we will bring them to you. we will go back out to anne-marie a little bit later in the program. still what this is david herro. this may be a field question, but let me ask you anyway. do you worry america is so divided politically it will have an impact on its future economically, the way that you invest in it? this is clearly a huge story for america. getting more details now. the roe draft is authentic but is not the final opinion. how do you think about the political divide in america? david: in every democracy you have differences of opinion. i have read a number of essays on this issue. 70% of americans basically have
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consistent views on some of the major issues. there are fringes on either side. we must not overestimate the fringes. by the way, i would assert that these fringes that amplify it as a result of social media, the trickery that goes on with algorithms, all of the stuff, but i think our country is in fact less divided than one would expect. kailey: but on that point, being more consensus than is reflected in politicians, the vast majority of the american population also supports abortion rights. i wonder as someone who has donated to republicans in the past how you view the news out in the last 24 hours, whether it gives you pause? david: i don't think it is for me to weigh in on this issue, there is just no reason to. but look at the polling on the issue.
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it is not as vast majority as you think. there are people on both sides of this issue. what we need to do, being good participants in a democracy, is listen to both sides, listen to arguments. this is what i fear, i believe it's a result of what is happening in social media. we have lost the public discourse. guy: i was going to talk about the fed, but what then do you think about elon musk buying twitter? david: in a capitalistic society, people can buy and sell what he wants. if mr. musk wants to use his money to buy twitter, so be it. it was an and privately run organization before him. maybe he will make it better. clearly, the news sources that
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we get today are owned by entrepreneurs -- bezos owns the washington post, the new york times. this is nothing new. everyone makes this big deal of elon musk buying twitter. if you don't want him to buy it, come up with a group and outbid him. kailey: let's move away from politics back to monetary policy. we have a federal reserve decision tomorrow. is hiking in 50 basis point increments enough to get the job done? david: i think eventually what has to happen is a return to normalcy. that means that the quantitative easing, which probably should have been stopped last year, the raises which stood have started earlier, this funny money that was around for so long, even into a growing economy that we saw last spring already starting
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to grow as a result of reopening. whether 50, 25 -- you can quantify? i think the direction is correct. i think the direction is correct, albeit late. who knows what will be enough? you do a little bit at a time and see what happens. i don't think they need to be overly aggressive all at once. on the other hand, they have to show determination, bring us into monetary realism. guy: as we started this process, we have seen a significant correction in asset prices. the nasdaq is down already 20%. down about 30% on the s&p. bond yields, the 10-year trading at 3%. talk about how you see this correction involving, how you see prices evolving from here, where you see the opportunity within this correction? david: here is my caveat.
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as many people know, i am a value investor. i invest in businesses where i can buy a good, high quality cash flow stream at a low price. for more than a decade, we've been dinosaurs, because people have been willing to pay high prices for companies with very low or no cash flow streams. they were able to do this because there was a belief that this current low rate of interest was permanent, or for the medium or long-term. now, as we are beginning to see a little flip-flop, the price of money is not free anymore, and therefore, companies with cash flow streams, especially if you can invest those cash flow streams, buy them at low prices i believe will be the market beneficiaries over this market adjustment period. we have seen a rotation out of
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what i would call the high price low cash flow stream businesses, starting to see a movement into those businesses. probably this movement was interrupted by, a, that fits and starts of a virus, variants, and, b, the russian invasion of ukraine. over the new term, this will be the new paradigm. investors should be looking for cash flow streams that they can pay low multiples for. it will mark the beginning of a turn back to value investing. people should be more cautious about companies trading at very high valuations that have very low cash flow streams. forget about long-duration fixed income as we go through this adjustment period. kailey: to that point, david, we have seen a selloff in major
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growth stocks in particular that enjoy richer multiples. but we have seen valley rotation before. what gives you the sense that this time is different especially in the face of a federal reserve that the market thinks was going to be aggressive, conversation about the real possibility of recession in the next 24 months? david: i think it will be different this time because the monetary paradigm is changing, we are at an inflection point, from what i would call the modern monetary theory basis, which dominated for about 10 years, to what i would call a monetary realism basis. we have been in this fantasyland that you could just print money forever. as the theory goes, we have inflation, we will just raise taxes. this is just fantasy, not how the world works.
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what we need is a monetary adjustment, and we are seeing this. this impacts asset prices. this makes assets that don't produce cash flow streams less attractive. assets that have good cash flow yield more attractive. you are right, there have been had fixed, but now we are seeing this change in monetary theory, monetary policy, which will ultimately be one of -- not the only -- but one of the triggers to the return of value investing. don't forget, the better part of 2007, seven and a half years, value investing was where the money was flowing. there is no reason why we cannot have another period like this. kailey: david herro, cio of harris associates, thank you for giving us so much of your time. helping us react to the headlines we were getting from the supreme court which said yesterday's leaked report is
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authentic but does not represent the final position of members. chief justice john roberts has directed the marshal of the court to launch a probe. we are seeing president biden speaking at joint base andrews right now. he says he hopes they are not enough votes to overturn roe. let's listen to a low bit of what he has to say. president biden: far beyond the concern of whether or not it is the right to choose. it goes to other basic rights, the right to marriage, the right to determine a whole range of things. one of the issues that this court, many members of the court, a number of the members of the court, have not acknowledged that there is a right to privacy in our constitution. i strongly agree with that.
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if this decision holds, it is really quite a radical decision. again, the underlying premise -- and again, i have not had a chance to thoroughly go into the report. but it basically sa as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ so many people are overweight now
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and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to and see how golo can change your life. that's human being is a question. is it at the moment of conception, six months, six weeks? is it quickening like aquinas argued? the idea that we are going to make a judgment that is going to say that no one can make the judgment to choose to abort a child based on a decision by the supreme court, i think goes way overboard. >> what does this mean for the
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democrats argument in the midterms? president biden: i have a thought about that yet. >> do changes need to be made at the court if this decision holds? president biden: one of the reasons why i voted against a number of the members of the court, they refused to acknowledge that there is a ninth amendment, refused to acknowledge a right to privacy. there are so many fundamental rights that are affected by that. i left not. to leave that to the whims of the public at the moment. in local areas. thank you so much. kailey: we have been listening to president biden speaking to reporters at joint base andrews after the confirmation from the supreme court that the document showing a draft ruling overturning roe v. wade was indeed authentic but does not represent the final view of the president biden saying
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overturning roe "concerns me a great deal" and that if the decision holds "it is a radical thing." he would look to potentially codify congress to protect the abortion rights of american women. should indeed this be the decision, the court reaches -- though no decision has been made, this was just a draft and confirmed by the supreme court. >> let's return to the markets and track the latest developments on that story and bring them to you. right now, european markets wrapping up the day. this is what has been happening. the situation largely positive. ftse 200 playing catch-up. we have to factor in the negativity from friday but elsewhere we see a pause of session. european stocks up, bonds up,
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even the euro trading higher. quick look at how the session has developed and how we have been working our way throughout the day. not a lot of volatility in terms of the session so far. relatively tight range. 243, 245 right now. how does it work? let me show you. we are continuing with corporate numbers. certainly one of the stories at the top bp energy story, up over 4%. i will show you the figures in just a second. bottom end of the markets we have real estate, luxury stocks, resources stocks tracking lower. continuing to focus on what is happening in china. let's work through the corporate numbers. i bring you whiz and bp.
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what is the common thread that links these companies? trading, i would argue. really strong trading numbers. that stock up 5%. french bank doing very well. whiz air bouncing back strongly. even stronger than anticipated, up 8/10 of 1%. bp, the trading numbers very, very strong. that stock up 5.2%. kailey: let's continue the conversation on bp. the ceo describes the results as exceptional. he spoke with anna edwards about his outlook for the future as more oil sanctions loom. bernard: we have stocks around the world, lowish spare capacity and a lot of uncertainty. whether it is with iran, libya, the global economy, whether it is with zero covid in china.
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a lot of uncertainty but if you step back and say, all of these things lead to a lot of volatility and we can expect that volatility to continue. kailey: here with the latest is laura hearst who covers oil, gas and coal for bloomberg. putting aside the $25.5 billion hit from having to write down, trading coming to save the day. what color can you give us around that? laura: unfortunately, not a huge amount because bp, like many of its peers, they don't actually break down how much money they are trading. they just use these words like good, exceptional. this was a very strong one indeed. if you look at the figures that bp is refining and trading, they made about $2 billion.
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you can make sure that while refining was better a big chunk of that will be coming from trading. guy: how sustainable is this trading number? we seem to beginning into a world where there is uncertainty around the energy complex. is this something we are going to have to learn to live with? and if it is, can we expect bp to churn out these kinds of numbers? laura: one thing bernard looney said was it is the volatility that allowed the trading unit to thrive. it does not a matter if oil is up or down. he is saying they are expecting volatility to continue, at least this year. if that is the case and traders get on the right side of the market, it is quite possible that we could continue seeing the strong results from that unit. kailey: laura, i want to take a u.s. perspective as well because
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the cfo says there is no capacity to ramp up his business. this is a conversation we are having in the u.s. as president biden looks toward the shale patch saying, please pump more. if bp does not have the capacity, does anyone? laura: absolutely. one of the reasons the cfo said they cannot increase shale production is because they do not want to do it at the expense of the environment and methane emissions. they are building these two gathering facilities in the permian which should be done at the end of the year. once those are completed, if prices are right, then they said, yes, we are going to go ahead and we will have the capacity to increase production. the other caveat is cost inflation in the permian is high. the cfo said if coming in around 10% in the permian, he also said
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it is much higher than the rest of the world. that is another thing that might slow things down for them. guy: laura, great stuff. brilliant story from bp. laura hearst. let's check with european stocks. bp the bright spot for the london market, spiking higher toward session highs. up around 2/10 of 1%. even the ftse, despite factoring in friday's negativity, producing a positive session. those are the final numbers. ftse up to tenths of 1%. -- 2/10 of 1%. i will be joined tonight by eddie and we will talk about the chelsea football club. you will find us in the london area and on bloomberg devices.
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podcast available on spotify and itunes. kailey: coming up, at a time of raising interest rates and market volatility what is the outlook for private equity? we ask the comanaging partner at bain capital, john connaughton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is the european close. i am ritika gupta. we will be joined later by some special guests. this is bloomberg. kailey: private equity firms may have to adjust their timetables due to volatility. how declines in the stock market affected the pace of their deals and exits. john connaughton from bain capital joins us now. they are one of the largest alternative asset managers with $136 billion in asset
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management. great to see you. we are having this conversation the day before the federal reserve hikes interest rates 50 basis points. and that is the start of what could be serious, aggressive tightening the next couple of months. how does that change your world? john: thanks for having me and certainly, our world is very changing and volatile and challenging at the moment. but i think the cycles we have been through as an industry over 40 years have all had dislocation and mostly that for us is an opportunity. the values we saw in 2021 were hyperinflated. certainly, the stimulus that got dropped on our country, the u.s. at least, led to asset inflation and demand that created the inflation we talked about. our view is it will persist for some time. the news tomorrow, whether it is 50 or 75 basis points, it is not good to be the end of the story.
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i think the persistence of inflation is something we believe will exist. guy: good morning. guy in london. what does that mean for the alternative universe? what we have seen the last few months is a breakdown in the portfolio. people do not know how they produce a balanced portfolio and the answer when i asked the question is, you need more alternatives in your portfolio. does what we are seeing now in public markets accelerate the move to private markets? john: well, i do think the benefits of our private market portfolio, particularly if you have a strategy like our own where we can take our own resources and generate returns through generating value through consolidation or transforming companies or industries, the value is not just about asset selection. it is really looking outside 6, 7 years and what are the unique themes we are investing behind that looks through the volatility, look through the valuation cycle, and take
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advantage of the resources we have to build companies and change the trajectory of this companies independent of the momentum of the moment? which i think we saw last year and we are seeing now go the other way. kailey: where are you finding those opportunities? john: one of the big trends we have seen is digitization broadly speaking. whether it be in health care -- health care is part of my investment career and track record. it has been an area accelerated by virtue of covid. the ability to monitor patient population, to take automation of things otherwise done manually. that is true across many industries where the ability to invest behind technology to enable not just the technology business software's but industrials, consumer businesses, financial services businesses, it is one of the trends i think our industry can invest behind and see value from in the companies we buy. guy: argue seeing better entry
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points? what do you think of the entry points in front of you right now? do you think those will get better? john: it is a great question. i do think we get confused sometimes when we look at entry points and compare them to 12 months ago. as we looked at 2017 through 2019 those were heavy valuations. after the stimulus and lower rate environment we saw a real interest rates go negative and that asset inflation took off in 2021. it was off the charts in a discontinuous way. when we see them settling into where they are today that is really not to levels i think are normalized. we believe, particularly if you have a point of view it will be on the terminal rate, which we do, we think there is going to be more dislocation in multiples relative to the rate environment. kailey: we are talking about policy getting tighter in the u.s. places like china, we are
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talking about policy getting easier because of a slow and regulatory crackdown amid the chinese technology sector. bain was involved in some investments in china and i am wondering how your thesis around that country is changing and how you're navigating it and especially given the regulatory environment? john: i think you have to be in any geography hyperaware of sovereign policy. even in the u.s. policies change and create paradigms that shift quickly. when we look at china, we are looking at businesses that are on the right side of the policy, directions the china country is taking. that could be in areas like health care where china promotes their research and drug development pipelines. it could be in financial services, tech services. they are largely domestically based policies aligned with
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things that are in line with the policies of government. guy: are you refocusing at bain refocusing on the united states or looking globally? what is happening in europe right now -- curious to get your take -- are they shifting quickly to an investment point of view? john: we still believe particularly in europe and japan there is tremendous amount of opportunity in unlocking value from companies that are sitting inside larger corporations. we have done a lot of carveouts in europe. we have done a terrific number of carveouts in japan. part of the value of our platform is we can take our insights into the longer-term vision of rationalizing the portfolio, trying to invest in technology or r&d that allows us to take a corporate orphan and drive value. itp aerospace is a good example. rolls-royce is investing. we have the opportunity to
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support that and unlock the value of his long-term trajectory. that is just one example. hitachi metals is another. i think markets in japan and europe, we have opportunity to use resources even if valuations come down. kailey: finally, as we talk about where you see opportunities where you finding in the decentralized spaces? crypto particularly? john: being a venture investor we are one of few firms of scale in the venture business and we have been in that business since the mid-1980's. the wave of blockchain and distributed finance and infrastructure generally speaking in software we have heavily invested. we think it is a new platform. a new platform that has a lot of applications and all the hype and controversy around currency is one thing. but the idea of it being a truly important infrastructure to build upon a new wave of technology and innovation, i
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think that is why we are in it. we have been in it for a long time. we started our own crypto fund but had been in it before that. kailey: we will leave it on that note. john connaughton, thank you for joining me in new york. we will continue the conversation on crypto today. bloomberg crypto 1:00 p.m. new york time i will host with kriti gupta. we will hear from the ceo of black stream and the quantum sin tech group. shameless plug. guy: absolutely. what have we got coming up? the supreme court says the leak ruling that threatens to overturn roe v. wade is now being confirmed. however, it was not a final document. we go back to the supreme court next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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kailey: u.s. stocks pushing higher. kriti gupta is tracking the move. kriti: i want to start with a 10 year yield because you are seeing movement. recalibrating about what we can expect an tomorrow's price action. today you are actually seeing yields lower and that is reflected in the dollar. i want to get to the stock market because as we see the bond market recalibrating -- totally natural -- the stock market is catching my eye. you are seeing more green on the screen and traditionally, at least the last year, the stock market has been expecting hawkish moves. the trend has really been more risk off. today you are seeing these moves in the financial space rally in quite a bit. that conviction in the bond market, that 50 basis point move, reflecting strongly in the financials. they are not the only ones moving and i want to get to some of the other earnings stories. estee lauder coming out and was
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down as much as 10%. they are cutting their full your outlook. a lot of this has to do with growth around the world. when you hear that messaging from a company like estee lauder it also lands nike and starbucks with major presence in china. guy: thank you very much. let's get back to one of the main stories of the day. the supreme court confirming that the roe v. wade document is authentic but not a final opinion. here is david westin. david, what do you make of the latest news? david: it is interesting what chief justice roberts has done. he decried the fact there was a leak but confirmed it is authentic. underscoring the fact this is not the decision of anyone, even justice alito. they can change their minds during the deliberation process and often do. kailey: david, there are two
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issues at play. one is the fact the leak happened. the other is what indicates which is an overturning of roe v. wade. how does this have implications for the midterm elections and the presidential election of 2024? david: that is a big issue. it is not just a legal question it is a question of the politics and whether it will have an effect. the initial reaction from some experts is it will generate a lot more enthusiasm from both extremes, the right and the left. democrats will feel they have to turn out to vote. for example, we have primaries today for the senate in ohio and indiana. on the other hand, the republicans might turn out because this is what they wanted. on your point, i don't think we should be shocked if it ends up going away. that is what the republicans have been campaigning for for years. guy: what are the prospects of if this goes the way the democrats don't want?
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ultimately they force this through congress and codified into law? david: we will talk about a democrat from minnesota. if it goes the way this opinion indicates, congress could come back and enact a version of roe v. wade by statute federally. that will be difficult, particularly in the senate, because of the filibuster. we already have one senator saying we should suspend the filibuster specifically to address this statutorily. kailey: we heard president biden when he was speaking at joint base andrews ask about what he would like to do in response. if this means something on the supreme court needs to change. he answered with a similar codifying it through laws passed in congress. but when he came into office there was conversation about
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potentially stacking the about potentially stacking the court. is that obsolete? david: i think people moved away from that. court packing was attempted in the 1930's with fdr and it did not go well. it is seen as a political hot potato. people are concerned that could go both ways. if the democrats increase membership when they want, republicans can do the same. i do not know if it is moot, but i think people have moved away from that as a practical matter. guy: david, thank you. as he suggests there will be more in the next hour. "balance of power" coming up. looking forward to the analysis around this hot button issue that is massively surged onto the agenda. we will here also from dr. steven corwin during that conversation. while we have been speaking to david we have seen breaking news come from apple. it hired a 31-year-old -- 31 year veteran to ramp up its car projects. not a 31-year-old, we should make that clear.
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served as ford's safety engineering director and is going to be interesting to see what he ultimately does at apple. apple has been hemorrhaging recently. people that were involved in the car project so now it is saying apple might turnaround. may be refocusing the business back on what is happening with the move, potentially producing an apple car. "balance of power" coming up. kailey and i are wrapping up. i'm going to bloomberg radio, 12:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the world of politics, to the world of business, this is balance of power with david weston.
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[bell ringing] david: phone bloomberg court headquarters to our audience worldwide, welcome to balance of power. the big news in washington is the leaked draft majority opinion from samuel alito's, associate justice of the supreme court, which on its terms, if adopted ultimately would completely overturn roe v. wade. you have full-court coverage today so to speak in washington from both correspondence. anne-marie horton is at the courthouse. what is the latest from the supreme court? >> we did get a response from the supreme court and justice roberts about what this means. we should note this was a massive, dramatic turning point last night and this morning. you saw


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