tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg May 3, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
haidi: good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. we are at day two of the australia conference in sydney. shery: and from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn, counting down to asia's major market open. haidi: and these are your top stories this hour. a volatile day seen on wall street. u.s. stocks swinging as traders
look to bring down inflation without triggering a recession. and beijing goes to extreme lengths to contain the latest covid outbreak. we take a look at the outlook for china. and the protections of roe v. wade, does biden lack the votes to do it? we have china and japan for the continuation of the labor day holiday. this is shaping up when it comes to the start of the equity session. u.s. stocks ending higher. the aussie dollar with gains, leading in the g10. the dollar fell against just about every g10 currency in the overnight session. the worst month since march of 2020 for the aussie. take a look at new zealand's as well. it's possible we could she -- see a sharp decline in property prices. when it comes to aggressive
easing, we had just about every forecaster and trader in australia with a much more hawkish move from the rba then had been expected. we are seeing that follow continuing including the three the first time in eight years. shery: we actually saw treasury yields today under a little bit of pressure. they did fall towards the 2.9%, moving away from the 3% level as opposed to australia. we see u.s. futures muted at the opening with such a volatile session in new york today. who would blame them? we have the fed deciding tomorrow. but we saw gains wiped out through the afternoon session just to end up in the green. we did see the nasdaq 100 underperforming a little bit. a broader benchmark with the s&p 500 benchmark gaining .5%. wti under a little bit of pressure given the china lockdowns and concern over the amount of russian fuel.
india is getting a little bit of ground. but the key focus is in the after hours trading session as we had those earnings results. starbucks missed expectations and sales results in the u.s. outperformed. dale's across china did not. it plunged when it came to comparable numbers, more than 20% given the lockdown across china. we are seeing a little bit of a rebound in share prices after hours. we are seeing amd up more than 7%. they came in with very strong sales forecast. they are showing that they are doing pretty well, beating rival intel at one point as well. and we see young china, watching the company very closely. they met expectations with growth of 4%. they are saying that they are looking for those impacts coming from the covid lockdowns in china right now. all eyes right now have been on
what is happening with the fed, right? markets have already priced in 50 basis points hike for the wednesday meeting. a bloomberg columnist warning that the fed needs to do more than just hike rates. he is saying officials have shifted to increasingly hawkish narratives in order to catch up with market pricing. but the more markets have tilted pricing, it's not just increases but a bigger frontloading which is why we saw the 50 basis point hikes pricing for three meetings in june, july, and september. he says the fed desperately needs to regain control of policy narrative. haidi: and that regaining of control seems to be the narrative for policymakers everywhere. this idea that so many central banks have fallen behind the curve and the rba is one of them. economists said you have the likes of the fed and the rba
fr to try to tackle inflation. so why shouldn't the rba do the same given it has been patient for so long? it's interesting that we heard from governor logan saying that he was embarrassed by the fact that they were so wrong when it comes to forward guidance on rates. a member when they said that they would remain at a record low until 2024? that is a starkly different picture and messaging than what we got from the rba yesterday. take a look at cash rates. there are expectations to price in a move to june. it is well ahead of the rba's own forecast of about 1.5% to 1.75% for the cash rate. it does -- it is interesting to see how that falls as we get more data and more guidance from the rba in months to come. shery: the aussie dollar jumping , the greenback under pressure given the moves. and we get more analysis from
kathleen hays. let me start with you. not only a 50 basis point rate hike, but a 75 basis point rate hike. kathleen: the 50 basis point rate hike, every federal reserve official including jay powell has at least open the doors and endorsed a 50 basis point rate hike. it is starting by mid-may and that is expected. but i want to get to the 75 basis point argument, this view. the idea is shock and awe is what is needed. it's not expected to happen at this meeting, but could powell open the door? number one, there is no federal reserve official that has called for a 75 basis point hike. joe bullard from st. louis said yes, it could be an option if needed like alan greenspan said in 1994 but, "not his base
case." he's not expected to have to do it. lori mester wants methodical moves, she does not favor a shock move. charlie evans, the chicago fed president sees the need for 50 basis points but not more than 50 basis points. i think this market expectation has cooled off a bit as we hit the end of day one of the meeting. bloomberg economics says there is a decent chance of a 75 basis move because powell has said that there is a too hot labor market. and we see record wage increases last friday, a job opening up to 11.5 million. the u.s. another record. at the same time, was also important here is that we are going to watch the presser. he will talk about the need for 50 basis points, maybe 75. listen to what he says as he talks about methodical moves.
i think that is one of the key things. is the inflation outlook going to peak? will he worry expectations are becoming entrenched? how high do they have to go? what are the odds of recession if you get so aggressive? a couple more things. alan greenspan, when the fed did that 75 basis point rate hike, it had done to 50 basis point hikes in august and july, and in september, it had to pause. after the election, that is when they did the 75 basis point hike. it's the only other time they did it. and by the middle of july, they had to start cutting rates. it seems that this is still a potentially likely thing. and bottom line, just how aggressive is the fed going to be? that could be what ends up being the market moving at the end of
the meeting. haidi: given the twists and turns of the overnight session, we are setting up for quite a bit of volatility. andreea: we certainly are. some analysts are coming out and saying the market selloff is overdone. perhaps it has gone too far. and perhaps they are right. jp morgan seeing a rebound maybe on the horizon. expect global growth to rebound in the second half. and sentiment indicates the labels last seen during the peak
lockdown of the pandemic in 2020. and technical indicators, we could have the fear that we are seeing from investors in the market that may have gone too far. the china slow down lockdown. -- and lockdown. this view is not shared by everyone. morgan stanley is quite bearish on equity. expecting the s&p 500 to fall about 16%. and also saying that the worst of the selloff in bonds may be over. as kathleen said, the fed will be speaking at the press conference tomorrow. haidi: our asset editor, andreea
and kathleen hayes speaking. in the commodity space, we will be talking about evolution mining. and a global biotech leader will be joining us later. and another interview with anz, what it means for the bank after it was reported this morning that there was a better-than-expected first half profit. let's get you to vonnie quinn for first word headlines from new york. vonnie: china's capital is avoiding for lockdown as it attempt to control an outbreak that saw 53 new cases on tuesday. beijing is restricting movement in districts deemed medium to high risk with authorities locking down some apartment blocks. they ordered three rounds of mass testing. students are suspending in-person classes for a week. china's growth forecast over covid lockdowns, the agency trimmed the 2022 gdp estimate to
4.3% from 4.8%. with economic activity contracting sharply asked month due to virus restrictions. the agency cited systems risk due to china's coveted zero policy. russia has avoided its first foreign default in a century with dollar payments onto bonds -- on two bonds. they have received and processed some payments due for the euro bonds in 2022 at 2042. the transfer of $650 million had become tangled up in wide-ranging sanctions imposed after the invasion of ukraine. president biden has urged the election of lawmakers who support abortion rights and will seek to enshrine protections into u.s. law. the supreme court is poised to overturn the landmark roe v. wade ruling. democrats currently lacked the votes to pass legislation even by a simple majority.
an attempt to codify roe was blocked by the senate in february. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn this is bloomberg. haidi: global recovery -- shery: global recovery is continuing despite risks posed by the ukraine war and voluntary policy. -- monetary policy. we have more with a cio next. this is bloomberg . ♪
>> could we get to three point 2543.5? yes. -- 3.25 or 3.5? yes. >> enough to begin slowing growth and raising concerns about recession. >> the market is pressing 200 basis points over the next four meetings. >> it looks like anticipation of the fed tightening is tightening financial commissions a lot. >> if the u.s. yield continue to go higher, the fed should deliver some shock and awe. >> if the fed does what it needs
to do, stabilizes things, that will go a long way toward solving some of this. >> limited market reaction will probably be seen as a win for chairman powell. haidi: let's bring in our next guest who says the only way to stop inflation may be a recession. cio of d-squared. your view is that the fed has been behind the curve and they actually do deliver these outside move. -- moves. what does that mean for the risk of policy era and how markets react? victoria: has the fed ever gotten the situation right? the answer to that is no. they are late and they know it. the best case is a soft landing and i sincerely doubt we have that considering how fast the markets are moving. the 10 year and the five-year
this year, it has been very violent. we are sitting 94. and we will set a new bar this year. i do think you will get 50 and 50, maybe a 75. we have to see what the inflation numbers due when they come in on the 11th. and don't forget they have the balance sheet runoff. 95 billion and how quickly they do that. they have two levers they can pull. i think they know they are late. inflation is extremely high and definitely persistent. the labor market is so tight it is starting to hamper business. the only way this has ever slowed down is a condition like this. we are seeing a recession on the horizon. i know things have not quite become recession indicators yet but look at the ism number and look at where the markets are heading. you think that the labor market can go much lower? once that starts to bottom out, you have cycles.
it can get to 3.5. but between now and then, the fed is going to put as much assistance between zero as humanly possible. they have tools in their tool chest. haidi: higher inflation, higher borrowing costs, supply chain shortages are still playing out. are there any companies that you can find best handle that? victoria: sure. results in commodities have done well. the energy sector is something we are more bullish on right now. we benefit from an inflationary environment. they are just printing cash. you are not seeing them reinvest. they don't see a huge increase in capex. much to the chagrin of all of us at the gas station, you're not seeing u.s. shale open the pipes anymore.
but you are seeing a lot of profits coming from energy companies because they are benefiting from a higher commodity market. historically, commodities are a good place to be in an inflationary environment. i know financials have taken it on the chin this year and they haven't done as well as they would've thought. you just want to play defense. don't be reaching on risk. look at strong blue chips, things with good, sustainable cash flow. it is not facing too much risk. look what happened at the 10-year when it hit three. use the opportunities to come in and start putting cash to work. shery: the reason you are being more defensive, is it because the spike in oil gives you more of an indication of where the broader economy is headed? haidi: yeah, we have never had this height without a recession. there were different causes in
the 90's and in 2008. one was the war and the other was in the great recession. the u.s. economy lives and dies on the consumer. the u.s. consumer is being asked to absorb so much pressure right now. and we had a better balance sheets coming out of the pandemic and a much lower debt. the u.s. consumer was relatively healthy. the inflationary pressures hitting us like the housing market is getting tighter and more expensive. and at the grocery store, the consumer at some point is going to roll over and they can't keep absorbing all of these body blows. shery: when you talk about the housing market, how much does that complicate the situation given the fed is trying a soft landing at a time when even if you get higher mortgage rates, it may not necessarily cool the market? there is just lack of inventory. victoria: and how do you cool a market when you have an inventory problem? a supply problem?
yes, the housing market was underdeveloped coming out of 2008. we are playing catch-up at the worst time when we are seeing materials and labor cost so much more. and at some point, this will slip into a housing crisis. i feel like the consumer has nowhere to hide right now. where will the consumer get released? where can people improve the cost of living situation? i think it is a big hole for us to dig out of. and so many of these forces, the fed can't control. the mortgage rate will slow down the housing market, but when you have short supply, you have people with balance sheets right now paying whatever they want to pay. haidi: always good to have your perspective. g squared private wealth. coming up, we will have the latest on the historic draft opinion overturning roe v. wade.
shery: president biden says he will seek to enshrine the protections of the landmark 1973 roe v. wade ruling that made the choice to seek most abortions a constitutional right for women into u.s. law. president biden: it goes far beyond, in my view. if it becomes a law and if it is written. it goes far beyond the concern of whether or not there is a right to choose. shery: let's find out more from jodi schneider. talk us through the response from not only the white house but also from democrats? jodi: president biden call it
quite a wrathful decision, this draft opinion that can still be edited and changed. but the court did say that it was authentic, this draft opinion. president biden says he is really encouraging the house and senate to pass legislation that would codify roe v. wade into law so that it didn't matter what the supreme court decided. that will be very difficult because there just aren't the votes for it at this point. we have senator smith and minnesota -- in minnesota that says it is a galvanizing decision and we have seen that today. what we have heard from both democrats and republicans. democrats are criticizing it roundly, showing that they need to pass legislation and they need to get more pro-choice lawmakers elected.
republicans are saying that this shows that the court is after president trump's successful nominees to the court. that elections have consequences. and if it's overturned, it's because a majority of justices see it as the right thing to do. shery: and we are seeing that reaction playing out in the streets already. what we are seeing live in new york right now. congressional action would be necessary when it comes to changing abortion rights. a lot of talk about filibusters today. what is the discussion and what are we hearing? jodi: what we are hearing, is that there are a number of lawmakers on the democratic side that want to see this codified. the problem is, in the senate, there has not been movement on changing the filibuster rules that requires 60 votes for such legislation to pass. there is talk of changing that
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haidi: the asian development bank is expecting a strong recovery for asia this year with gdp growth of 5.2%. the risks remain. we are talking about covid, not to mention a potential aggressive fed tightening. joining us now is a chief economist at the asian development bank. albert, great to have you with us. there are so many things right now, so many uncertainties around the world and i haven't even mentioned the ongoing war in ukraine. what is top of mind for you for the asian economy for 2022? albert: it's a very uncertain
environment. as you mentioned, the russia war in ukraine is creating a lot of uncertainty, especially about commodity prices. and of course, we have the fed tightening policy which could depress demand from the u.s. if it reduces growth. and it also leads to financial tightening and less liquid situations. and possibly more financial volatility in the region. and finally, we have the downgrading of growth in china because of the zero covid policy and the risk there which will emanate throughout the region. haidi: let's focus on one of those risks, which is the fed tightening. we are expecting that rate decision on wednesday in the u.s. this chart showing how capital outflows have been exacerbated from china as well.
it hit a record back in march. if we see this aggressive tightening in the u.s. from other parts of the world as well, who are the most vulnerable across asia? albert: our forecast of 5.2% for developing asia was before the last fed meeting on march 16. based on the data before that. with the tightening policy which is continuing with this week's meeting, we expect growth to be about 2%, .2 percentage points less. if you account for the slow down in china, it would take us below 5%. but relative to the rest of the world, asia is quite robust. in terms of which countries are most at risk from the fed tightening, obviously, it creates a kind of tension that countries need to either respond to fed tightening by raising their own interest rates, to protect against financial outflows, but they also are trying to recover their
economies because they don't want to have higher interest rates choke off growth domestically. the alternative is to allow their currencies to depreciate which could increase deflationary risks. we have seen japanese yen depreciating. each country is going to have to manage this challenge differently depending on its own conditions. haidi: you know, every time we are around a tightening, we talk about the need for structural and fiscal reforms. is emerging asia a better place this time around? and what sort of reforms do you say need to happen to be able to achieve sustainable growth going forward? albert: i think many countries learned their lesson from previous crises. as a whole, many countries have had very sound acro economic management. another benefit is that --
macroeconomic management. there is less risk of outflow. that said, countries that have struggled -- windows relock it is having a payments crisis. -- we know sri lanka is having a payments crisis. they will probably have to get some assistance and really think about ways to tighten up both the fiscal policy and think of diversifying their economies to generate the foreign reserves they need to meet their payment issues. haidi: as you mentioned with sri lanka and pakistan, outside of asia as well, issues arising with the cost of economic management leading to political instability as well. is the political risk and economic consequences something that is high on the radar this year? albert: yeah, i mean when
countries have to face so many different challenges -- we had the u.s. china trade war put pressure. covid. now the russia war and the recessionary risk in the u.s. it puts pressure on some economies. but most economies in the region are in a pretty sound position to manage these risks. it may slow down growth and create some headwind, but broadly speaking, we're still pretty bullish on developing asia in terms of their ability to continue recovery from the pandemic. haidi: we know they are talking to many multilateral organizations. what role is the development bank playing here? shery: the adb -- albert: the adb has been a supporter of promoting developments, be more resilient. in terms of addressing payments crisis, we need to coordinate
with other international organizations, especially the imf. and based on that assessment, we try to be as supportive as possible to help countries get to these difficult times. -- through these difficult times. haidi: how much more will the uncertainty around the world and all the challenges we talk about exacerbate inequality already rampant in the region? albert: that is a very difficult challenge. i think the pandemic in particular, certainly much harder on vulnerable groups. informal workers which comprise a very large share of the labor force in many asian countries. also, educated workers, women, young people, they all bore a much bigger brunt. many governments in the region try to respond and provide support just as in the west.
the amount of stimulus and fiscal resources available are still much more limited than in the u.s. and europe. after two or three years of this, we are seeing additional shocks applying pressure on fiscal systems. the adb is trying to increase allocations of funds to provide 's of funding to get through -- new lines of funding to get through. and economies will have to help themselves by thinking about ways to raise tax revenue and be a bit smarter about how they target benefits to the really vulnerable groups given the limited fiscal space that has materialized after several years of deficit spending. haidi: in addition to the elements that sherry just mentioned, we know the climate transition and climate change
impacts these vulnerable groups more so than other groups. albert: that is absolutely right. climate change is absolutely at the top of the agenda in asia. asia accounts for the lion's carbon emissions. it needs to continue playing a leading role in addressing the challenges. and of course, it is difficult when there is so much pressure on governments to manage resources widely. the higher oil prices, one possible benefit of oil prices really encourage governments to switch away from more expensive fossil fuels and switch more quickly into renewables. and adb is really trying to support those efforts by governments. haidi: albert park, chief economist at the asian development bank. we appreciate your time with us today. we have yet another downgrade in china's year for economic
growth. china's gdp growth was 4.3% due to the ongoing covid lockdowns. let's bring in our chief asian correspondent from hong kong. a lot of people are worried around this 5.5% growth target now. stephen: it goes along the lines of what albert was just talking about, the shock that could come from a slower chinese growth outlook for this year. and the spill-on effects it is causing. the supply chain crunch and shutting down factories because of the lockdowns. fitch ratings is the latest in the string of economists ratcheting down expectations because of this april slowdown we have seen. of course, the first quarter was better than expected or pretty much in line with expectations. april's economic activity has fallen off a cliff. barclays is 4.3%.
barclays expects disruptions will be prolonged. bloomberg economics is an even more dire expectation of 3.6%. ubs says in light of intensifying downward pressure on the economy, there could potentially be more downgrades coming. people's movements are being curved. supply chains are being snarled. keep in mind that there will likely be more policy support as we get a slew of announcements next week. but how much can they do? especially on interest rate cuts and rrr cuts given the interest rate differentials and the potential for capital outflows. haidi: any movement on the virus at the lockdowns? stephen: that is an interesting one. most of the cases have moderated. we have had four straight days below 10,000. it was below 6000 for monday.
shanghai is getting a better outlook. about the lockdowns have not necessarily been eased much. beijing in a tougher situation. but people are encouraged not to make unnecessary travel. public transport and public places, you need to have covid tests. and another round of testing yesterday. they are trying to repeat what has happened in shanghai where they have been in lockdown for more than five weeks. beijing the capital more politically sensitive. they are taking a very aggressive and cautious approach, authorities are, to the outbreak. shery: our chief north asian correspondent with the latest on china. let's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: sources tell bloomberg that russia is planning referendums and some occupied areas of ukraine to pave the way for full annexation. 10 weeks into the war, the kremlin is focused on cementing
political control in overseas territory. french president macron held a call with vladimir putin asking him to allow evacuations to continue from the besieged steel plant in mariupol. the biden administration is taking the first step for tariffs on 300 billion dollars on chinese imports. industries have been notified that the tariffs are set to expire in july but a request can be made for them to stay in place. u.s. trade representative's also need to examine the tariffs effects. former fed vice chair says the u.s. -- the central bank combats decades high inflation. he spoke on upon caste where he said it is unlikely the fed will be managed given how high on a plummet levels are. he said the fed should've started tightening back -- how high unemployment levels are.
haidi: the rbs surprised hawkish is well set up with secure long-term funding. the managing director and ceo spoke exclusively here at the australia conference. >> we locked and a lot of long-term funding, eight-year to 12 year funding with sustainably linked bonds last year. that has sure the balance sheet up will end given us a strong balance sheet through which to invest in a number of initiatives that we have across the group. haidi: what about the demand when it comes to households? >> we're seeing inflation fairly widespread that has been there for some time. in the latest announcement today, we have interest rates going up. certainly no surprise that we are seeing interest rates go up all over the world.
the australian consumer is in pretty good shape. unemployment levels are low. household's are sitting on relatively high levels of savings. i think we need to make sure that as a consumer based business, we need to deliver good ideas to consumers because think the public will be more focused on value as they try to balance household budgets. haidi: are you seeing cost measures materialize? -- cost pressures materialize? rob: the cost pressures are pretty widespread. a lot of materials that go to general merchandise products. we are seeing inflation and we see increased costs of international shipping in fuel cost. we are trying to keep the cost down and flow through the minimum and possible.
we want to attract more value conscious customers. haidi: the continued lockdowns we are seeing across china, are you seeing the port congestion really starting to affect your business? does it worry you? >> they came out and are well aware of some of the volatility and they are prepared to carry additional stock levels. they are managing those disruptions and we will see a way to get back operational. we have more of the short-term challenges as we go and businesses are well-positioned to deal with them.
>> can you give us outlook. >> it is at the end of march. api will be the health division of west farmers. it is a health and well-being generally. it is a growth area and there are great opportunities within the api business. it will continue to innovate and a lot of improvements with retail delivery. providing a more compelling retail offer. and hopefully, we can be part of the solution. >> it is something that looks to be a huge part of this. rob: today i was really pleased to talk a lot about the chemical fertilizer that is certainly benefiting from strong demand
and some of the critical materials to support the mining industry and the agricultural sector. and also our new lithium business. we mentioned that the project is on track and it is going to be one of the largest integrated lithium hydroxide businesses in the world. haidi: for business leaders, there has just been this shortage. we see a return back to the pre-pandemic normal and growth is going pretty well. the recovery is pretty good for australia. rob: i think you are right, i think there is a real opportunity for more skills development. better equipping australians to create and provide these jobs. there is also a target of opportunity. australia is very much a frontier economy. there is so much opportunity. shery: -- haidi: that was rob
scott. and don't miss our other interviews from day two. plus, global buyers join us later. and a number of other business leaders have been talking about the skill shortage and labor shortage. take a look at the data when it comes to the market. holding steady at 3.2%. this is a historical low in the fourth quarter of 2021. this has really tightened the lack of international arrivals. one percent of the game -- coming in at two point 9%, a little bit lower than expectation. when it comes to wage growth, we are seeing a beat when it comes to average hourly earnings. we are expected to see wage growth. it will eventually slow.
we see that aggressive tightening cycle. shery: it's time now for morning calls ahead of the trading day. bigger than expected hikes, and the market reconsidering expectations for the tightening cycle and the chief economist, josh williamson with increases around 2022. a half-point jump in august to push the key rate up to 135 basis points. he is also boosting the 2023 forecast to 2.35%. investors are looking for more and more income. jp morgan strategists said the trade returns higher and yields and bonds are also getting downside protection. this strategy looks attractive. now yielding 4% on average compared with only about 1.5%. we have plenty more on the markets.
>> they managed to squeeze out this half and now are triumphing over worry is a lot of analysts had where there were a couple big things about growth for the business. there was mortgage lending among the tech startups and that really hurt the big four. the other key element was net interest margins which was the kind of balance, the ratio between the rate that they give to the positive counts at the rate that they offer mortgages. that is a pretty closely watched element of the profit margins. and they did pretty well. growth is strong. back to almost pre-pandemic pre-covid levels. and on top of that, they have shown some real traction in terms of the digital strategy and new growth. shery: what about the non-bank
holding company? what do we know? harry: they are kind of undergoing a bit of a digital transformation. it is something that they have been concentrating on. they have a new unit that is run by longtime consumer and retail executive. they have launched a new app and they are putting this holding company, some of the vc investments they have made into a single unit. they are focusing on things like personal finance and digital growth. they've even got mortgage lending at the touch of a button. that has been a big process they unveiled last month. we are waiting to see what they do now that it is separate. shery: interesting to hear from them as well. we will have a big interview coming up with the anz ceo shane elliott about those results. and we will be able to ask him all of those questions. australia road to recovery will be one of those key topics.
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