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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  May 4, 2022 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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necessarily going to. >> central banks were not expecting this inflation. they have not seen inflation for a long time. >> i do not see how inflation comes down on a still accommodative setting. >> we hope they contain inflation without killing off businesses. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with john keenan, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.
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tom: we are all moving forward to the presumable economic shutdown. jonathan: what are the odds to that question? tom: what i am looking at is the data. front and center for me today is diesel. from the last meeting to this meeting is surging. that number was just published moments ago. diesel is 16% of america's energy consumption. it matters. jonathan: a lot has changed in the price of fuel, a lot has
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changed in this market. the s&p and the nasdaq, for that matters well. lisa: there has been a lot of adjustments ahead of this fed reason -- this fed meeting was raise a lot of questions for me. for june, are they going to raise rates 570 percent there? why don't they do something bold in this meeting? are they going to signal something in the balance sheets sooner than june? everybody is talking about dependency. john, you have pointed out again and again what data are they looking at because it is coming in hot. jonathan: how he answers that question in the news conference today will give people some signal about what they are going to do. not just in june but beyond june for the rest of this year. lisa: it will indicate how far they think they have to go. as close to the balance sheet also, yes it is 75 basis points in june.
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i want to know why they are waiting so long to start to -- the balance sheet. we are still hovering around that $9 trillion balance sheet. jonathan: why is the president schedule with an address at 2:00 p.m. eastern time? lisa: he is going to talk about economic growth, jobs and deficit reduction. this is his way trying to message ahead of the fed's press conference to take the decision and transform it. jonathan: what do you think of that, tom? to have a news conference with the president? an address by the president of the united states 30 minutes before the chairman speaks. and just a couple minutes after we get a decision. tom: a level of closeness. it mr. deeds need to get on and say why don't we delay it until 3:30. they have had an eventful 24 hours, particularly with the
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supreme court. jonathan: -- of 4% on the nasdaq and a third. 2.9 519 -- 106. the eu coming up with a plan for russian crude. >> we are seeing a reaction in crude. you are seeing that surge but you phrase it well. it is a plan. a much expected plan. do they go through with it? and how much will change things given that some of the dependencies and tightness in the oil market? today is a decision. the fed is deciding, we have
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been talking about the special we have been doing. all joining us ahead of that news conference at 2:30 p.m. i want to understand the balance sheet, how they gauge the reaction in market. it has a dueling effect in how they are planning to view that efficacy. today, aps employment change at 8:15 a.m., the trait deficit seems to be deepening, as well as service data at 2:00 and you -- at 10:00 a.m.. this means there is nearly two job openings for every unemployed american. how does the fed deal with that?
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president biden is going to compete with the fed and he is going to talk about girls of jobs, deficit reduction. it is a complete coincidence in terms of timing. the market faced with recessionary concerns and private -- tried to push. jonathan: you would have been better served to start getting on it in september -- the leadership of the fed is going to be. i find that line really interesting. a suggestion from a formal fed official -- a former fed official that they could have gotten on top of it in september and they would have done if they knew it leadership look like. maybe this is not about the cost index. tom: i am not going to go there john. jonathan: well, the former
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governor is. tom: from the days of alan greenspan, i can remember senator graham of texas going after alan greenspan. he wishes he did. i'm not going to talk about this, i am not going to talk about that and nowadays led by build ugly and mr. coral, everybody's talking. jonathan: i enjoy it because everybody is saying what they think. not far from peak fed fear, then later -- ben laidler, what makes you think that? ben: we are close to peak inflation. economic condition is already weakening. i'm not sure if we are entirely
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there yet. i do think markets -- and we are subject to a loosening. they have been driving down. lisa: do you think stocks have flown down an of to get inflation back to a reasonable point for the fed? ben: we are on our way. mortgage rates are over 5%. we have real yields for the first time in years. the economy is slowing, not just in the u.s. but what is going on in europe the whole world is clearly slowing. you put that together along with these expectations, it is
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unprecedented. a double-barreled tightening on the balance sheet and the interest rate. i think enough has been done. i see the jaws of this device loosening a little bit. jonathan: down 28% in the premarket, it is about access to labor and the cost of labor. i imagine lyft has its own problems and uber shares them, but that speaks to the broader labor market. tom: the digital marvels -- digital models are not --. ben: it is the only anchor for this market. there is only two ways to make money and equity, stock goes up
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or earnings go up. hopefully they both go up. if the fed stays focused, they will continue to fall. it is all on earnings. the big silver lining to all this, corporate terrain in very good shape. despite headline numbers and high-profile misses, earnings are the excitation on both sides of the atlantic. private numbers near record highs. -- with the balance sheets and investing very aggressively. that is your closest leading indicator of what earnings are going to be in the future. jonathan:ben laidler, thanks freddie. looking forward to seeing what they have got to say later. lisa:lyft shares are down. a lot of people are talking
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about, is this a disproportionate response to the earnings. or they really that bad or is it any growth stock that has -- absolutely pummeled? jonathan: -- easy for these people to find companies to work for? that has changed in a big way. lisa: that completely changed the dynamic of the higher cost of capital and higher cost of labor, this is a question that underlines what ben laidler was saying. we have seen high pricing but is it enough? i don't have a clear answer. tom: you cannot get cars because there are no drivers, because they are not making a living. is there something i said that is not clear? lisa: [laughter] jonathan: futures down --.
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this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: aggressive action -- a rate hike in more than two decades. -- hungry and -- both were opposed to a quick cut off of russian oil.
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one republican has one primary for a senate seat. he defeated six other candidates. true endorsements will be tested in coming weeks with republican primaries in a number of states. shanghai and beijing sticking with their covid policies no matter what the economic cost is. the city is exhilarating and planned to ease social distancing rules -- and relaxed some restrictions on inbound flights. lyft stocks plunging. the company could use -- lose a quarter of its value. the company's largest rival uber also is falling. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is
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bloomberg. ♪
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>> today, a bloomberg exclusive. live from the jp morgan summit in london. >> today we will propose to ban all russian oil from europe. this will be see warm and --. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. on the nasdaq 100, of a third of 1%. basis points, 2.9519.
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the last time the fed met, february 18. -- 2.18. tom: the change is there but then there is a change that is not. holding up like a rock down 12% from march 16, apple. i was stunned to see apple was 150 nine dollars down and share march 16 and it is down $159 yesterday. this is a really historic day. jonathan: maybe another one and another one, and perhaps another one. tom: 10 rate hikes is unimaginable. all that is imaginable is in germany and emory in washington.
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amory, i must go to you. the president speaking today, getting in the way of the fed meeting. why? annmarie: this is a little of a preview here. deficit recovery is occurring because there is increase in revenue and the administration is winding down emergency spending. they go on to talk about the fact that the president will also speak to his commitment of reducing a deficit going forward and making critical investments for the american family. prescription drugs, etc.. parlaying that to the president's agenda which he only has a few months left to try to get past before the midterm elections. tom: lisa mentioned yesterday is josie. jonathan: i find this ridiculous
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the president scheduled a speech just before we hear from the fed chair. tom: what are they going to do, like sports where we show a game? lisa: it is clear there's tightness in the labor market. how can he point that and see some slack? you're seeing a backdrop of rising cause. oil and how it is going to fichter into the discussion, and what president biden talks about. jonathan: the oil situation and what the europeans are set to do, this is a plan. walk us through the plan. very all the words the way they dress it up, walk us through the plan, pace my plate -- pace by pace with the europeans plan to do. maria: this new sanction is about six to eight months transition.
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it is not just the oil, the commodities, everything around it. insurance, brokerage, a lot of the eu transportation of this oil, all of this will be banned at the end of the year. there are a number of caveats here. this is not going to happen overnight. it is not clear if this is going to lead to an end of this war. the other issue happening here, are we going to see price go up? that would be detrimental to what the european union is looking to do. and the other big caveat here, there will be sanctions for become needs. they said we are not going to do it if this is detrimental to our country. essentially the eu is going to value that until 2023. lisa: i can see oil prices are rising a bit, but not that much as people talk about our possible surge to $150 a barrel. in response to such a ban, i look at german two-year yields,
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they are the highest since 2013. is this causing more harm than it is actually penalizing russia? is that the view in your pan -- in european population? maria: it depends who you ask. we have seen a factor reduction. if you look at a country like germany, 30% oil, now it is gone down to 12%. if you look at russia, there is going to be a response. sanctions for every unfriendly measure that is taken here. the european oil will be easier over the short term. the big issue still has to deal with gas. the germans have been speaking behind me. this is a big conversation. how do you unblock and undo this policy of 50 years of appeasement when it comes to russia? jonathan: maria, thank you in germany. along with annmarie and washington, d.c..
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-- from the federal reserve and right before the chairman speaks, tom, how do we get to this weird situation where he speaks a little bit too close to the chairman kicking off his news conference? tom: it is just clumsy. jonathan: silly. tom: team surveillance is a vast team. jon ferro fell off his chair over the weekend. there was a small football match of manchester united. one of our team members and their offspring featured on nbc. well-behaved children, scarred for life by the support of manchester united. it is just harmful. jonathan: i cannot believe joe has made his kids manchester united fans. tom: they converse daily with --
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o'neill. bring the photo up again. all you need to know, as usual, the younger offspring is more trouble. jonathan: joel has been a floor manager for some time. tom: these kids are caa called. they are destined. jonathan: thanks for that, tom. tom: good to see that. jonathan: very good to see. tom: john, i am going to look at this historic day and apple says it all. there are so many different stories across the market coverage to make one blanket simply sick statement about the markets and where we are with the central bank is off the mark. jonathan: the federal reserve has to come through with a massive move. they are set to do qt as well. we have vanishing reduction lead
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running potentially at twice the pace in 2017, 2019. that is a big time around -- that is a big change. lisa: a lot of people are trying to grapple with that. jonathan: a big conversation coming up. jamie dimon, the ceo of chase. she will do that in route 7 minutes time. features down by 4%. used to saying down over the last couple of months.
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jonathan: live from new york city this morning. good morning on tv and radio for our audience worldwide. this is "bloomberg surveillance" . on the nasdaq, about 2/10 of 1%. the last time the fed met on march 16, since then we are down four and 6% on the nasdaq. equities have gapped lower since the fed met. you will remember on the day, equities were not lower. they were higher after that meeting. we were all scratching our heads as to why. >> it goes to show the reaction
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to the fed and the markets is -- fed chair jay powell told what he is going to do and people are surprised. jonathan: this move from the bottom market started to bite in big way. compared to where we were on march 16, 2.78. the u.s. 10 year yield back then to .95. it has been absolutely massive. tom: on the banking move as well. -- leon's wonderful work. jp morgan now down to 123 after the fed meeting. jonathan: we can now catch up
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with jamie dimon oh jp morgan sitting down with cash. >> as london, we cannot be more pleased. today we are expecting 50 basis points. what happens to rate hikes? is this your biggest concern? >> very strong u.s. economy. jobs are plentiful, wages are going up but those are good news. the fed is going to have to raise rates and reverse qe. we were at the summer they moved
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the better. the candidate -- yes they can engineer a mild landing. -- a soft landing. everything slows down and it is six or nine months. there is a chance against much higher than that. in the face of all that, you claim, huge global issue. francine: do you fear the fed or policy to the fed? jamie: i am not afraid of the fed. america needs very good domestic policy to improve the growth economy, which makes the fed job easier. that is about regulation, rules,
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policy, improving projects and things like that. you have two increase the supply side opposed to the demand side. the fed job will be easier if we had economic policy. francine: what could go wrong? we talked about strong economic growth, we talked about storm clouds. what is the worst case scenario? jamie: this fiscal and monetary induced unbelievable growth in the u.s., which is true around the world, it is going down in europe, that is abnormal. we have never had that before. we have never had qt before. when you look at qe, that is one of the greatest experiments ever done was 50 years on it. we have to reverse it. that is a huge change of flow of funds over the year. then you have got ukraine. when you look at ukraine, wishful thinking, you have a fed
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that works, the world is fine, ukraine resolves. there's a chances goes on for years and you completely radel week markets, -- commodity markets. we need to take every action to repair that could be really bad tomorrow. francine: how do you handle that? what is your plan being? jamie: we will deal with it. that is life. francine: how? jamie: the most important thing is american growth and, i call this martial fear of strategy, that we do everything we can. this doesn't violate climate change, it doesn't change any long-term objectives, but you do everything to get oil and gas into the hands of europeans so they don't freeze in the winter. i am not saying that is going to happen you have a couple problems out there, national energy, global energy is precarious. if the oil goes to 195, that is
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a huge problem for people. we should do everything we can today to pump more oil and gas question mark -- to pump more oil and gas. if you want transition, we should improve over the green stuff. the green stuff takes five to 10 years to approve in the united states. america needs to get its act together and they should have a war room, get everyone involved, say what we need to do. we need to get more gas to lg terminals. we cannot do that without a gas pipeline. we are not rationally thinking. we have misconceived notions. we are trying. francine: what is a role in europe in this? could europe see a recession because of energy prices? jamie: absolutely. it has slowed down to 2% or something. we are looking at a static analysis that if things stay the way they are very you and i know
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that things don't stay the way they are. my view is there is a very high chance oil will go higher. it only takes $2 million of market a day that can drive oil up $30. we should prepare for that today. i think it is great the western world has gotten together. who would have thought we would get sweden, finland, germany, switzerland, all of us? that working together part, we need to make permanent for global security. francine: how quickly could we see a recession and how deep could it be? jamie: i do not know. i hate to guess the future. no one can guess the future, no one ever does it well. if you have ukrainians first, i would assume we go into a recession. francine: -- to deter russia from the war in ukraine or to try to put the russian economy --? jamie: having tanks are
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airplanes, they are working to the extent the ge drives by 2% with the current sanctions. the sanctions of a quarter control. in the next round, if you stop oil being delivered, russia can get another 10%. it is not definitive. what is definitive is text. the sanctions are a pretty powerful tool. francine: you said years? jamie: i don't expect it. i should -- i said we should be prepared for two. francine: if you were president of the u.s., come -- if you are president of the u.s., president of the fed commission, what do you do? jamie: it is a mistake to guess which one it will be. it should be all three of them. based on the cold war's back, we
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always knew that national security is the always most important thing. now it is the most one thing. it should be the most important thing for the rest of our lives so maybe we all learn that it's a permanent state of affairs. the cold war is back. neutrality is have to -- but not just for military purposes but global, economic, investment purposes so we have a safe world. if we don't do that, ukraine, you will see that all around the world. forms of chaos. francine: would you go around the trading for intel kids, i have never dealt with inflation? jamie: of course. things change. you could easily see 5% bonds. bonds reacting dramatically. hopefully they will not go up a lot. i don't think it is a disaster. i don't think i slow down, i feel for the people that get hurt in that.
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but it is not a disaster for the world economy. the potential outcomes in ukraine are. you have to separate the two. if you took out war, you know how bad -- we did not know how bad vietnam was going to get, -- you go war after war, they were not predictable. we didn't know world war i was going to be like that. we didn't know world war ii was going to start in september of 1939. predict the, you have to be careful. why are markets relaxed? francine: why are markets relaxed? jamie: i don't know. as a rule of thumb, we are always prepared for bad outcomes. i need to taser should -- i need to say to the shareholder, jp morgan will be safe and sound and help your country and your people if things get bad. that is our job.
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now we are dealing with a half bunch of different things. we are prepared. we have extraordinary capability in capital. francine: where is china right now? jamie: my view is that china cannot possibly like this. if you look at them, they are playing a very neutral role. the congress, not just a president can come in and put in the secondary sanctions. they do 3.5 trillion dollars of trade with the west. imports, exports. they do a hundred 50 billion with russia. sanctions against them may be bad for the western world but even worse for them. they don't need that. they want to grow their country, they want to expand. i just don't believe that is true. they are caught between a rock and a hard place as a so-called ally who has put them in a difficult place. francine: the covert zero policy and the shot coming from that policy continuing? jamie: you have got to put china
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a perspective. it has done a very good job developing itself over 30, 40 years. it doesn't have all the strength of the western world. it doesn't have more food, water, energy, innovation, rule of law. the competition of ideas. -- huge negatives, they do not have more food, their neighbors are very complex. pakistan, philippines, korea. it is hard for them to expand. we should be worried about them and the west should negotiate how we are going to deal with trade, unfair competition and sit down with them. work it through with them. we should not be afraid of them. we should be afraid of -- not the chinese. if the western world sticks together, they will cherry pick and you will end up what we had
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with germany in nord stream 2. francine: are you committed to china? if we are seeing a split, could you see big banks being split into because of this east, west tension? jamie: no. a business you run for 30 or 40 years, we made a big investment in china, the greater china including hong kong, 40% of the global market one day, they would be a fully developed nation in 20 or 30 years. is there a chance of a very bad outcome? there is a chance that will be bad for j.p. morgan, but we will survive. there is a much bigger chance the blocks will negotiate strategic arrangement. we .5 trillion. the timeline will change. it will take time. we will change anything to do with national security. ai, penicillin -- those supply
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chains will be friendly source. it is going to be an ally. all nations are going to do that. china already does that. this is a unilateral thing. the rest of the trade will be fine. fundamentally fine. that will happen over time. it has surprised me how much the western world relied on china. not for trade, sneakers and shirts and stuff, but for rare earth. francine: but we don't. jamie: we do. national security, if i was in the white house, the only thing i will be doing now is white house -- is national security. i would be making a decision every day about how we secure or energy, rare earth, commodities, wheat. not against china, but to protect the western world. all this needs to be done.
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america needs to have an industrial policy. you have some kind of subsidies. i do not want to subsidize a company, i just think some of these things need to be brought back to the united states. francine: is crypto ahead or against inflation right now? jamie: the higher rates go -- national security is number one. i would not do something because inflation is a national security. -- inflation isn't national security. they are completely different. america had to take leadership that this is national security. if everything turns out fine in ukraine, we could say, we overreacted. i would rather that than to say, my god we were not compared -- prepared. francine: talking about roe v.
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wade velasco will days, what does that mean for j.p. morgan? jamie: i'm not going to get into that. there are 100 things in all these laws. hundred. when people say support this, support that, all you are doing is supporting something you shouldn't. when you look at the voting laws, i agree with some that they say, i don't agree with some they say. i'm not going to get sucked into saying i support your law. francine: do see for the u.s., a big bank having to shift because of policies in the u.s.? jamie: i don't sit here and feared that. whatever it is, we will deal with it and we will take care of our people like we always have. francine: jamie dimon, jpmorgan chase chairman and ceo, we will learn more from london throughout the day. jonathan: jamie dimon, jpmorgan chase chairman and ceo.
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your comments on the state of the economy? at a time when the eu is come up with a plan to wind down its use of russian crude. tom: at he was commenting on europe and oil, the 100 pages they just wrote on the demand mystery of oil, they really can't say trying to lock down what happens when china unlocked down. what does that do to diesel? what does that do to a gallon of gasoline? jonathan: let's reset and go through the try section four. look ahead to potentially, most people think we will get one. a 50 bases rate hike the federal reserve. -- up 4% from this. they could see a credit and yield. this has been the problem. credit kit has been tough. the bond side, yields have been
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much high on two and $.10 the fed last met march 16. lisa: the month of april, how nothing worked, i was looking at our financial condition index put out by bloomberg and how that has tightened substantially. have they tightened enough to actually slow some of the demand and slow inflation? we are not back to some sort of serious contraction in those conditions. jonathan: the fed met on that day, we close at 11045. tom: we are going to be doing that throughout the day. compare and contrast. i can imagine what it is going to look like march 16 after that meeting that follows on may 4. i cannot imagine -- deborah cunningham, we are thrilled she could join. what does this fed meeting mean for the trust market, the very
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short term paper market? deborah: it should have gone up if not close to but by 50 basis points. short-term returns on money market funds, short-term refunds -- short-term funds should be on the increase. equity markets have had a hard run of it in the month of march and now april. certainly longer-term bonds have. the -- market is returning positive returns and those are going up at this point. tom: are the instabilities out there? they get conflated, people flop over the new ounces of sovereign c. give us an update. i assume sovereignty is fine. you want to tell me it is not, i am listening. tell me about the liquidity dynamic. the oil in the engine.
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tell us about that. deborah: it is ok at this point. when we went into the pandemic, the health of credit organizations from a solvency standpoint was very high. we did not deteriorate that. in most industries, mostly because of the stimulus. the stimulus from the fed itself is going to be withdrawn. it is still a stimulative situation with interest rates at 75 basis points. there is still something quite accommodative of a monetary policy standpoint. it really doesn't become prohibitive from a growth perspective or from a monetary health standpoint for institutions until you get to something that is above inflation.
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who knows where the long-term run of that is right now. it is certainly not at 2%, 3%, somewhere in that neighborhood. even with 3%, that is still a bit accommodative. there is lots of good ways to and from flow. the spread being low at this point between those bids in those markets. there is still substantial amount of -- coming to market. lisa: when i see short-term yields going up, i wonder when i can get to the bank and get a toaster gifted to me and get a return on cd. how far away are we from that point? deborah: banks on an increase rate environment tended to have a low response rate. generally speaking, lower rates -- they lower rates on cds quicker when interest rates are going down then when they
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increase them. there is something called a beta that is in the neighborhood of about 40 basis points. which means only about 40% of rate increases are captured in deposit products. there are specials being run but you have to be careful about what the withdrawal and the premiums or penalties might be if you don't meet the exact terms. in any instance, whether you're talking about a deposit product, you are looking at interest rates that will immediately, after the fed's meeting today, adjust upwards of some number of basis points or percentages. lisa: the reason i ask is because there is a question of what happens when cash is a true investment viable alternative in the way it hasn't been for so long. we are seeing all this retail engagement, investing in part because we are not getting
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anywhere else. how far away are we from that point? deborah: a terminal rate to look at right now, at least for the foreseeable future, is somewhere is somewhere in that 2.5 to 3% range. for the end of the year, the fed has not set us up appropriately yet for that being that quick. of an environment that gets us there by the end of the year. hopefully today, chair powell will enlighten must if that is over the next six or seven months or more like the next 12 months. then we get to a real rate that is meaningful. tom: that is the more long-term. deborah cunningham, in your space, do you have a terminal rate? is there a terminal rate in the short paper market? deborah: right now, for the current time being, you're
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looking at a terminal rate that is probably, over the next three months, somewhere around the 2% range. as we get more guidance from chair powell and the rest of the -- numbers, maybe you begin to see that curves a little bit and get closer to the longer-term. tom: in the short-term space, the jillions of dollars, you are telling me there is a bear market, yield up, price down the. even in the short-term price market. deborah: anything other than the stable market product, that is absolutely the case. maturities basically 60 days and under that are not in that bear market. tom: this is very important. it means -- it's got some cap there. deborah: they will leverage
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absolutely. jonathan: deborah cottingham, then q. a couple of things today. not just the federal reserve but some of these stories to. lyft, stocks in. uber was set after the close today, they brought that forward. in about five minutes time. lisa: they want to get ahead of all of the bad news of their shares. the clients ahead of the market. our people overpricing some of the risks for this particular field? you guys take lyft, you guys take uber. as people do more business travel, how much of a boom from the ongoing? jonathan: i am not necessarily business travel, but i take your point. tom: although her listeners and
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viewers, either directly or indirectly, it is a technical logical -- a technological invention they made. jonathan: 395 k -- people will struggle to find workers. this number is not going to be north 400 k. that is connected to the story in many ways. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> what the market needs to care about most are one of the oz --? -- what are the odds? >> central banks have not seen inflation for a long time. >> i don't see how the inflation comes down with --. >> we hope they contain inflation without killing off businesses. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloombeve


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