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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  May 5, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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haidi: good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: the top stories this hour. wall street slumps with a trillion dollar stock selloff. recession concerns. the nasdaq plunged 5%. haidi:
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shery: the greenback surges as investors rushed to havens. the dollar spot index seizes largest jump since the start of the ukraine war. we're talking today about the s&p 500 losing 3.5%. this following the best fed day rally since 2011 for the s&p 500 , it was the best day in two years. what a sharp reversal. we haven't seen such u-turns in quite a while. there are very few historically speaking. the previous day we had gains of more than 3%. u.s. futures at the moment not doing much. this after following the huge move we saw with 95% of companies on the s&p 500 losing ground in today's session. we had the dollar index also gaining ground.
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this after the best day in a month. it was really about the selloff in the treasury space especially with the long and yields rallying. we're talking about the 10 year topping 3% with the 30 year at one point surpassing 3.2%. we haven't seen those level since 2018. the reason it matters is because borrowing costs for companies and homeowners to go up, mortgage rates now at the highest since 2009. what a reversal and repricing we are seeing since the fed meeting yesterday. haidi: that reversal in sentiment was at play going into yesterday. take a look at how we are setting up for this final friday session.
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we are seeing futures down 1.5%. that suggests a fall of a significant 1.7% at the start of cash trading today. we are looking out for the rba forecast. that will be key in terms of gauging what policy trajectory and what markets will be pricing from the federal back here. in new zealand, we are seeing steep losses of just over 1%. chicago nikkei futures looking uninspired. the dollar yen above 130. some of these risk currencies like the aussie, the kiwi even shery: there doesn't seem to be. a slowdown when it comes to central-bank action. we are getting a central-bank decision with the key rate of 8.2%.
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the expectation was for a full percentage rate hike but we are saying a bigger rise in the central bank key rate. we continue to see concerns about inflation playing out in the country as well. inflation rocketing towards 10% despite subdued consumer demand. the central bank coming out saying the recent trends were worse than expected and the key rate decision was also unanimous. this is interesting, because even last night we had the brazil central-bank rate decision, we were expecting them to and the world's most aggressive tightening cycle. they were signaling to perhaps a smaller rate hike and now, the she late central bank coming out worsening because of the global energy. given what we are seeing in the markets with the repricing and understanding of what the fed is doing, really the question is how long will this stockmarket
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reversal last? we continue to see financial conditions tightening. this is what the fed wanted. they cannot yesterday and it stock markets rally, that affected the state of financial conditions. a measure of stress the chair powell talked about being the channel through which monetary policy reaches a real economy. perhaps we are seeing the end of the buying the debt mentality. -- dip mentality. the global supply chain hitting the cpi is one reason why we are seeing a bigger than expected hike. haidi: the hope of an orchestrated soft landing for global central banks, particularly when you look at the bank of england. this was the most gloomy forecast we have had out of any major central bank so far in
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this cycle talking about racing for double-digit inflation. a long time of stagflation or recession. they pretty good 600,000 jobs in the u.k. to go. if they were to follow the market rates cap that has been suggested. governor bailey underscoring what the trade is to getting it under control and what policymakers are facing at the moment. we did seat the boost to interest rates to the highest since 2009. let's bring in our guest joins us out of new york. what's jumping out at you is all of these jobs and volatility.
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>> if you look at on wednesday we had the fed day, the biggest post fed day gain in the s&p 500 in over a decade. we saw the s&p 500 have its biggest rally in two years. today we see the s&p 500 fall as much as or .52%. the biggest intraday lost since june 2020. it's the same story for the tech heavy nasdaq index. as much as over 5%, the biggest close and declines since 2020. bitcoin also fell. it we are seeing the cross as that volatility off of the dollar. the dollar was spiking, yields were spiking, -- our bloggers reacting saying the concern is how long this lasts given that the base now perhaps forced liquidation.
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this will take time to shake out. how are strategists reacting to the selloff? >> a lot of strategist they were expecting we would have a reversal in the post fed day activity. it's not really that unusual to see stocks react one way after the fed decision than they have a reversal. it's about the magnitude of the loss. my team was talking to jim from the loophole group. he said i'm not used to seeing these massive declines. the story is the same, they are all focused on can the fed issue the soft landing? can they go forward with the path of a few 50 basis point rate hikes and bring down inflation while also not turning the u.s. economy into a recession was to mark parks >> what does that tell us about the wider markets? >> we are seeing a significant
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cross asset trade. across bonds, stocks, the dollar, and to some extent precious metals. the dollar rising or falling isn't just about interest rates. there's a significant correlation with u.s. equities and the dollar. as the selloff continues in stocks, so the dollar catches a bid and you've got the ukrainian issue, higher rates helping the dollar. now flush out of equities helping the dollar as well. it's hard to tell when this is going to stop. i think when -- you are going to see the dollar turned a bit. i thought that was going to happen a week ago. the trend still in the equity market is one day up one day down. the sellers take more out of the ark it the buyers put back in. we are still a definite downtrend in the equities. >> the downtrend in other
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currencies not the dollar. we saw the pound also falling despite the rate hike from the boe. what is the idea? >> sterling is putting the damper on everything today. coming out saying there's a potential for 10% inflation. it's highly unlikely that if the u.k. sees 10% inflation, here we have significant increases in inflation as well. that would suggest a much more aggressive tightening cycle by the fed and other central banks and that would lean on equities. the other thing being talked about is the fed is raising rates despite -- to fight inflation that it cannot fight. the inflation we are seeing is supply chain, energy, commodities and food. absolutely nothing that monetary policy changes is going to affect those things. the fed is potentially making the situation worse by raising rates as aggressively as they
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are suggesting. shery: great to have both of your insights with us today. let's turn to vonnie quinn. vonnie: opec and its allies are sticking with their standard small monthly production increases. international consumers are calling on saturday -- saudi arabia and its partners to fill in the gaps for a potential eu ban on oil. china's top leaders have warned against the covid zero strategy. the committee reaffirmed its commitment to the lockdown dependent approach. it also said authorities are making progress toward overcoming china's worst outbreak since the worst wave in wuhan two years ago. japan's prime minister says he will loosen the border controls next month along with other g-7
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nations in an effort to boost consumer spending. he credits the border restrictions for helping the country whether the pandemic. he said later, the border would be open in stages a's on the advice of experts. a millionaire is among investors agreeing to back elon musk takeover of twitter. others have given new financing commitments totaling $7.1 billion. a saudi prince has agreed to roll over his current investment in twitter. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. >> still ahead, a former fed president tells us how the labor market recovery still has room to run for the rest of the year. we will get his views on the fed rate hikes. before that, our next guest says investors are betting the fed
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won't be able to orchestrate a soft landing. we will find out more shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is not a good day, not a good year. >> we are pretty firmly in a bear market. >> the end of the day is about inflation. >> the market is trying to determine what is the most important factor going forward. for the fed, they are a single mandate fed right now. they are only focused on inflation. >> i believe the market is going to go at least 50% below the peak.
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>> we believe things are overdone. you have gotten rid of the excesses and the underlying fundamentals are still relatively good. >> some of that earlier on the market volatility. our next guest says the markets are having a tough time pricing and economic regime change. great to have you. to get your views on such a hectic market date. i want to put up this chart lends itself to the idea that markets are facing unprecedented level of risk into volatility. it's a rare year that you would see both bonds and stocks falling by this magnitude. when you have rising rates automatically putting so much pressure on returns, valuations, multiples, how do you change the way you look at how you invest in this market? >> a piece of it is to
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understand whether you are on -- whether you own individual bonds, you can hold them to maturity even when the yield might be the lowest in the market. you will still be paid off assuming no credit risk full at maturity. it is a difficult market and i suspect there are a lot of people who got the 401(k) statements in the middle part of april and they were shocked at what happened because fixed income is traditionally a place people go for safe havens. you have the abnormally low rates that we have had for such a long time, the only place for those rates to go is up. that's pushing the prices down and it's a difficult market to figure out where to hide. you have seen a lot of that going on especially with the volatility. it is very endemic of as we try to shift from rapid growth pay anything for that growth kind of
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regime to a more moderate growth , more normalized inflation and what are we going to pay for those and how will they look on our portfolios. >> we're hearing that sentiment from a lot of ces and investors sitting on more cash being comfortable with staying on the sidelines more but also try to look for inflation hedging opportunities. what does that look like to you? >> we want to make sure we are diversified across a variety of asset classes. there's a lot of things that have been thrown out with the bathwater. people are assuming we won't have any sort of growth or technology spend. that is patently false because there's a lot of fiscal policy and the system already headed into infrastructure and spending and things like that. there are different segments of the economy that are definitely going to play. one of the other things we are doing is clients who had sold businesses toward the end of last year sitting in cash
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waiting for the fed to start increasing. we think those short ends of the treasury market and the fixed income markets may have over discounted already what the fed will ultimately end up doing some moving cash into short-term bonds makes sense. >> we have growing concerns about a recession. we have growing concerns about whether the fed a fallen behind the curve as inflation continues to rise. as our colleague earlier was telling us, the fed is trying to control inflation when it comes from places that it cannot control whether it's oil prices or food prices rising. should we be concerned about stagflation and what are some of the trades that could benefit from this? >> we are not buying off on the stakes camp yet. your colleague was spot on saying that the fed is attacking and central banks along the globe are attacking things that aren't what is pushing the
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inflation up right now. basically, it is the war on pandemic. the interesting thing is stepping back, we as a globe have spec did central banks to bail us out a lot over the last couple of decades and putting that much pressure on the fed to fix everything when there's a lot of other fixes, i think it's important to remember that the fed wouldn't be moving as aggressively as they are if they didn't think the economy was strong enough to withstand. even the economic numbers coming through our evidence of how strong economy is. we are overpaying for workers or not. where overpaying for houses and underpaying for workers. we are seeing airports, full train stations, highways. there's a lot of strength in the economy. >> is the infrastructure something we should bet on given that we know the fiscal support will trickle through eventually anyway? ask infrastructure industrial spending anything that's going to participate in the building
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out of roads, bridges, rebuilding factories, bringing -- reassuring a lot of that activity here. text spending is going to play in that as far as international -- artificial intelligence. a lot of those stocks are on sale right now. haidi: always great to have you with us. taking a look at earnings coming through, net income for $.71 billion. -- 4.71 billion dollars. they continue to maintain a cautious stance. return on equity coming in at 18.7%. saying they are well-positioned for superior performance in the medium-term. the final dividend per share of
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three dollars 50 aussie. expectations were to see a big beat when it comes to commodities revenue. looking in those details later on when it comes to their expectations for energy oil and gas business as well as what they are looking at in fiscal 2023. you can get a roundup of the market action and the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. subscribers can go to the terminal. this is bloomberg.
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>> looking at crypto assets. bitcoin is coming off of its worst day since january. either at one point slumping. the brazil central bank the chili central bank and others around the world hiking rates. we continue to see that perhaps the tightening cycle is in full place. take a look at currencies trading because even though the boe did hike rates, we saw the pound losing ground. right now, still under a little bit of pressure. gilt yields also declining because investors are turning their focus to the forecast of a potential recession in 2023 with governor bailey saying the u.k. economy is already slowing because of the squeeze on
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consumer spending. aussie dollar right now unchanged. it just saw its largest decline since march 2020. we also had the best day in 11 years, but we had some disappointing pmi numbers. we are watching the japanese yen as well as the equity markets come back online. >> look at the day ahead for australia and new zealand. watching australia's market reaction after the selloff. set to release a quarterly update of its economic forecast. we will see if we get more volatility in the aussie dollar. a few moments ago, macquarie group for your earnings -- four-year earnings -- full-year earnings still a cautious stance. >> a retail portion of the life insurance corporation of india
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share sale has been fully taken up days before the day closes. 60% is set aside for institutional investors still unsold. the u.s. has reportedly opened an investigation into sony's proposed purchase of a videogame maker. the federal trade commission is undertaking an in-depth review of the $3.6 billion deal that was announced in january. the report said the sec may not be able to block the takeover, the investigation is the latest example of increased scrutiny of mergers. up next markets gyrate, the former atlanta fed president joins us to discuss this and how the hot u.s. jobs market could complicate the central banks inflation fight. this is bloomberg.
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you saw this massive -- it was quite a surprise. >> eventually the fed might have to hike more. >> they do need to slow the economy in order to deal with inflation pressures. >> they need to move in a way that does not cause a recession. >> you can't have the cake and eat it >>.
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it's prudent to take it one step at a time. >> don't rule anything out. >> so many takes from guests talking about the challenges and the path ahead for the fed. let's bring in kathleen hays who was standing by with more news. >> lots of questions. with us now is the previous president of the federal reserve bank of atlanta. look at what the fed did now, given what the markets did, it seems more pressing somehow. one guest said the fed is going to have to get the key rate far above neutral. it is he right, is the fed behind the curve do they need to raise rates more aggressively? >> they are a little bit behind the curve.
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last year, the calculation was that inflation would abate and they were covert concerns at the same time. they may judgments in real time and they missed it a little bit. they are now catching up. having said that, i think we just have to watch how this economy evolves. we are already seeing some signs of the labor market slowing a bit. that could take some of the edge off of wage increases. that would have an official effect on the inflation numbers. it's a wait-and-see situation as far as i'm concerned. >> was it a mistake for chair powell to so explicitly and definitively to say 75 basis point rate hikes are not even under consideration? >> the word panic, emergency,
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those words apply to using a 75 basis point move. on its fundamentals, and i think chair powell emphasized this yesterday, the economy is pretty strong. the one negative is inflation, but employment is strong. consumer activity is strong. consumer balance sheets are strong. it's not a situation that calls for an emergency type of move. i think he very clearly took 75 basis points off the table. >> yet our colleague was telling us that the fed may be targeting to bring down inflation when inflation is something you don't have that much control over because it's coming from other factors like oil, food prices, the war in ukraine. what happens when you have a very strong labor market and strong wage growth?
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>> the fed, the committee is walking a very narrow path trying to avoid a true recession . a severe kind of downturn. at the same time, trying to engineer a slowdown that does not put a big dent in employment. that is a very challenging path to engineer. we will see if they are able to do it. the underlying employment situation remains strong. the ratio of openings to the unemployed is at an unprecedented ratio. almost two to one. that was emphasized strongly by jay powell in the press conference yesterday. they have a lot of positives to work off of to bring inflation down. >> is today more of the reaction
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that the fed had been hoping for? the knee-jerk reaction yesterday to know 75 was worrying. >> i'm not sure that chair powell or any memos of the committee hope for an outcome in the equity markets other than they watch equity markets for impact on the real economy, the broad main street economy if you will. otherwise, there is an attitude that markets are going to do whatever markets do. there's not much the fed can do about that. i have heard the view and i think there is some legitimacy in the view that some of the downturn in the market is like a reverse wealth effect. in that sense, it may help whole
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process of tamping down inflation, slowing the economy, but not creating a recession. >> one of our charts of the day is looking at the spread between the fed funds rate and the consumer price index. it is the widest it has ever been. leaving people to say how can two and a half percent on neutral? i know he said he would go beyond. enough to start slowing inflation. when you have this very big gap, this very negative not very tightening impact from the fed funds rate on see potentially push it higher. >> i don't think there's any question that there is a long way to go before you see the interest rate fight in the sense of actually being above whatever
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is the estimate of neutral. it's almost a theoretical concept, there are a lot of different economists with different views of what constitutes neutral and neutral at the same time is a moving target. it could very well be the fed funds rate has to get to 3.5% before it is at or above neutral. we just don't know. also, the spread, there are many measures of inflation. there are some encouraging signs if you look at core inflation, exploring the impact of energy and food. it has been flat for the last couple of months. there is of you out there that inflation is speaking. i always viewed inflation as not one number or one spread.
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>> i spoke to another official today who i did not ask if i could quote. the argument was made that the balance sheet runoff isn't getting a lot of attention right now, but in three months, it's going to be a nearly $100 billion per month. this is going to move liquidity much more quickly. risk premiums, this is going to make a big difference. you have had jobs where you were in banking, you have advised small and medium-sized businesses. this is potentially going to be a big hit to the economy -- markets. the fed is saying it's such a secondary tool. maybe it's more primary than the fed is thinking. >> it could be. jay powell is emphasizing that the primary tool of monetary policy is interest rates. they very much want to put the reduction in the balance sheet
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in the background. more or less on autopilot. having said that, a $9 trillion balance sheet provides liquidity far in excess of many needs in the market. they will go along long way in reducing the balance sheet before liquidity is going to feel tight to the market. this may be overreacting a bit to the balance sheet reduction. if are going to be in a situation of high liquidity, considerable liquidity for quite some time. >> is there a sense that the fed is now looking at labor market indicators as standalone indicators as opposed to looking at how they feed into indicators of inflation? >> there is always a focus on employment per se because that
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is half of the mandate of the fed. the situation now is the employment situation is feeding inflation so they are linked in a negative way. they are watching employment because they have to try to deliver full or maximum unemployment. at the same time, recognizing that rising wages are a potential fuel for continuing inflation. >> always great to have you with us. the bank of england issued the gloomiest outlook of any major central bank this year as it raised its key rate. it is warning britain to brace for double-digit inflation, a prolonged time of stagflation and even a recession.
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>> i would agree that our cure is higher inflation. i want to go one step further. a lot of the work is going to be done by the fact that we are experiencing historically large shock to real incomes. coming from outside the country. it's a trade shock in that sense. that is predominantly energy, food, and some core goods. that high inflation feels high inflation. no, it doesn't in the sense of a standard man shock where both activity and inflation are going up. what we have is inflation going up and a push down on real incomes. it's the real income push that is the thing that we think will do a lot of work. to lower inflation.
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but, here is the complication. there are risks other way. one of the big risks is the labor market. have a tight labor market in this country. there's a good story in many ways because we have come through covid, a lot of predictions including some efforts sometimes that were going to have a big rise in unemployment. in the end, it didn't happen. >> why are you convinced that wages are not going to rise? i hear your concern about the cost of living crisis, but nevertheless there is a risk that we see wages going higher. you talked about this in the press conference. there seems to be a gap between the bank into business. what banks tell me is they are really struggling to hire. as a result having to raise wages to compensate for that. as a result of which while at the moment wages are below where inflation is, inflation is going to come down but the labor
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market may stay tight. we might end up with a situation where that spiral starts to bite. >> that's why we think there are risks on the upside to inflation. we also think the core story is a big real income shock to the country. that will push down on household income and company corporate margins as well. that we think is going to slow the economy down. we are probably already seeing some signs of that. the gap between consumer confidence and business confidence is large at the moment. we haven't advocated on one number, but we had a week retail sales number a couple of weeks ago. we are seeing some signs of things beginning to happen. unfortunately, the check has to come through. it can't go anywhere else unfortunately. you're right, i go around the
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country a lot. at the moment this backs up the confidence story. my problem is i can't hire enough people. >> that was the bank of england governor after the pessimistic forecast following the rate hike. let's look at what we are seeing in the start of trading across australian bond markets. following the losses that we saw in treasury markets resuming those declines. 10 year yield jumping and australia to 3.51 by 12 basis points. look at the yield it fell below 3% after jumping through it for the first time in eight years. now it is past 3% again. we see this escalating selloff continuing pushing treasury yields overnight to multiple year highs on thursday. that benchmark 10 year rate above 3%. traders failing -- favoring the steeper curve.
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we continue to see the fears of inflation rattling the bond market. >> that didn't last long. given that the 10-year treasury yield top 3%. the 30 year yield also top 3.2% at one point. look at morning calls ahead of the trading day because it is all to do with central-bank action. the european central bank saying it will discuss a rate hike in june and likely act on it. that is according to the governing council member. the austrian central-bank chief saying that rates will rise this year. how may times that happens will be intensively discussed in june. the official is seen as the most hawkish member of the council and has repeatedly called for normalizing policy. in this environment, ubs asset management says global stocks look less attractive and bonds and credits given all of this uncertainty.
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strategists say equities are too expensive compared with bonds and at current prices investors aren't being fairly rewarded for what could be unexpected risks and growth or inflation. we will have more on those risks with plenty more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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you are watching daybreak australia.
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germany says it is really to help eastern european nations wean themselves off of energy sources. it is pushing ahead to substitute russian oil to build up infrastructure to import lng. all shells made the pledge. japan's prime minister says he will loosen the virus related border controls month. in a bid to boost consumer spending. he credits the border restrictions for helping the country whether the covid pandemic. he said later the border would be opened in stages based on the advice of experts. the covid-19 death toll climbed to 15 million in the first two years. that is according to a new report from the who says one in every 500 people globally died. the figure is far higher than
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the official numbers and includes deaths and directly caused by pandemic disruptions. data from governments put the number at just over 6.2 million. over 6.2 million. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: china's top government warning against criticizing xi jinping over the zero covid policy. stephen engle is in hong kong. zero-tolerance for the questioning of zero covid. >> they are trying to stem the undermining of their policy. he seeks the third term this august at the conference. it's perhaps make or break on the zero covid policy and they
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are sticking to it arise -- amid rising criticism. shanghai is into its sixth week of a shut down. they had 34 cases of intercommunity transmission of covid. the requirements for a neighborhood to relax its lockdown is zero community transmission for three consecutive days. there is mounting criticism and frustration. beijing is in limbo. they're not and technical lockdown, but the restrictions are severely moved. we have all seen where the pmi and both figures and consumption tracking numbers, we can see that the economy is taking a hit. the standing committee, that's the all-powerful body of the government chaired by xi jinping put out a statement thursday night essentially saying that -- calling on the nation to fight against any speech that distorts questions or rejects the covid control policies.
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it says china has made progress toward overcoming the worst outbreak since the first wave hit wuhan two years ago. he said the policy can stand the test of history and our measures are scientific and effective. this comes against the backdrop of rising criticism at home and abroad. anthony fauci criticized china's long-term approach of lockdown saying it is ineffective. more importantly than dr. fauci's criticism is the criticism of the former editor-in-chief of global times. he put out a post yesterday on wechat that is subsequently been deleted saying it's make or break time for covid zero. it is only manageable if it is not damaging china's status abroad and china's economy. again, that post has been deleted. haidi: stephen engle with the latest.
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we have more ahead on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: peloton is reported to be exploring a sale of a minority
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stake to shore up business as the company's stock continues to state -- sink. palatines value has fallen from a $50 billion high during the pandemic to just over $5.5 billion. macquarie group reported today. a jump of the 56% on year and comfortably ahead of analyst estimates. the group says it will continue to keep a cautious stance with a conservative approach to capital funding and liquidity. >> we continue to talk about how inflation is affecting everyone around the world especially when it comes to the markets. we are seeing real compensation get hit. especially when it comes to wall street dealmakers. their bonuses could be cut by up
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to 40%. underwriting is under pressure given that we are seeing rates rising, borrowing costs rising. ipo's under pressure. we are seeing equity underwriting under pressure. all of that could hamper bonuses and wall street. interestingly, not so much for traders. >> what we have also seen is that feeding into the big war for talent. incentives, big bonuses and sign offs -- sign on incentives. big wall street firms struggle to retain people and attract people and it leads to the great resignation phenomenon. a lot of what industry analysts are saying is going to slow as firms clamp down on costs. you should try to make that window if you're going to get
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one of those deals. daybreak asia is next. we will see if the roller coaster -- if we are set for the roller coaster of volatility. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: the top stories this hour, a turbulent fraud ahead risk assets after a one point $3 trillion u.s. stock selloff.


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