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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  May 6, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> these are three central banks. >> slightly different challenges. >> right now, we are going through a hangover world capital markets. >> the fundamentals of liquidity are continuing to drain. >> inflation, we need to move on rates. >> we are going to stay on the edge of our seats until we see that core inflation move down. below 3%. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowitz. jonathan: payroll is 90 minutes away. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio come alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz pre-i am jonathan ferro. some real damage done yesterday across the board. tom: it is really nuanced. in the last hour, the fx model improved a little bit. dollar weakness with haven scare
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coming in. there are some nuances, but i would look at the equity market. the vix 32.84, out 1.68 points. there is no bid in the equity market. jonathan: you have to lift the lid and look at the carnage beneath the surface. they are pointing out about half of the nasdaq is beef -- below 52 week highs. that is an issue. tom: that's always true. there is leadership in a bear market or a down market. we are not going to editorialize. we would never do that, but there is always a case of getting hammered. what is interesting to me, the index, the katie w index, confusing symbols, it is down 20%. i was surprised. j.p. morgan is down a little bit more than that on the index. that surprised me. >> i been talking about this for weeks. >> she choose me out all the time. jp morgan, year-to-date, down
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22%. gold is down 18. bank of america and down 15.6. it has been tough, even with higher yields. lisa: did you see that story yesterday on the terminal about bankers seeing a 40% decline in the bonuses? that is because of banking activity. there are not deals getting done at the same extent from previous years because of uncertainty, and the cost of financing, when you have average yields and junk bonds in excess of 7%, that is a different landscape to take on as speculative acquisitions. jonathan: someone messaged me earlier and say that you need to take a victory lap around the studio. is that going to happen? lisa: i will get my running shoes from the other room. is that a victory lap for carnage? jonathan: for destruction. lisa: i am not excited to see the carnage. what is interesting is the 10 year yield is climbing the most. this makes a lot of sense to me. it is the big question after the conference, which is if not
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frontloading more aggressively, what does it mean for how much control they have on inflation, and markets believe on how high the yield can go? jonathan: i'm glad you bring that up. i have a difficult time getting a read over what is happening over the last couple months. we have struggle with that, and a lot of people have tried to call top. bank of america, morgan stanley. the 10 year is close to 3.1%. tom: we have seen a huge movement, and there are any number of outcomes. it is fascinating. it is about the short-term and the belly of the curve. not the long-term as well. it is anybody's guess, and i will go shock. we are data-dependent. we look at yields. jonathan: we are playing data-dependent bingo. tom: it is good to hear lisa clicking here with her 42 miles she runs in here every day. my running shoes or the other room as well. jonathan: i've seen it. we both seen it. we have gone to breakfast and
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lisa runs past us. she doesn't run -- he doesn't waive. tom: i where chanel. jonathan: the nasdaq 100 is down .6%. lisa does not run in chanel. the yield is up 3%. ecb officials after ecb officials are talking up higher interest rates. the euro-dollar is short. lisa: giving some stability to market that is in flux but fragmented. how the euro breaks is how people are focused on. we have the april jobs report, and we are probably going to get unemployment rates that are at the lowest going back to the early 1960's. we of course have john speaking with u.s. labor secretary marty walsh at 9:00. i want to hear what he has to say about how wages are going up. what is needed to bring it down. how much unemployment rates have to go up in order to stave off
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some of the momentum. some of the froth, i would say. a lot of people have been observing that in the labor market, including jay powell. we have a slew of fed speaking, including that minneapolis president, atlanta, jim bullard of the st. louis fed, mary daly of the san francisco fed. how do they respond? what is the markets response to jay powell easing financial conditions. could it be followed by a reversal in decline? at 4:15 p.m., this might be the most interview of the date, to me. michael mckee is speaking with the former fed governor randy quarles. you've picked up on certain things that have been said in the recent past, but i want to hear his comments on basically whether fed chair jay powell has not messed up, but didn't go aggressively enough, or aired in laying out a path for interest rates at a time when the risk right now is to the upside with inflation and how comes out. jonathan: earlier this week, it
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was said the fed delayed getting on top of inflation because they do not have clarification on leadership in the fed at the white house. in any other week, with the carnage and market mess, that federal reserve decision, this would have been talked about so much more than it has been. so much more. tom: it has been exhausting folks with the news flow. it is extraordinary. i take your point. this would have been much more visible at other times. jonathan: let's get to the bond market conversation. with the head of the global rate strategy market. with the fed struggling to get through 3%, the long and real rates have started to rise, that is tightening financial conditions. walk us through how damaging you think it will be, and why you question the resiliency of this economy for the rest of the year? priya: thank you for having me. what i think is happening in the rates market just in the last month, really, has been the wrong end moving and the wrong
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and real rates moving. that is the tightening financial conditions, and impact sensitive components of the economy. we have dealt with every recession in the market. there is a lot of leverage in the system. i think when these long and real rates start to rise, it starts to put pressure on the consumer and the corporate sector. i would say the consumer, much more. savings can be a buffer, but at what point does the consumer sort of look vulnerable because real rages -- wages are ongoing, and interest rates are rising. you have a wealth channel working as well. we are not there yet, under the five-year real rate. it was 1%, but a lot of that move has happened closer to 70 basis points. if you basis points higher in tenure rates. i think we get there. financial conditions start to impact it. tom: i want to take your full faith and credit work with a giant that joined us 10 years ago. you are on the same page. there is no way to put it. rates will move up, and dominic
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says it will be necessary and sufficient for the markets to calm down, and for flow to solve problems. at the heart, the distinction of the argument is that foreigners will step in with a vengeance and put a bid to our bills and notes and bonds, pricing up, and yield stabilizing or yield lower. you agree? priya: i agree long-term. i struggle with the near term. monetary policy impacts the economy with a big lag. the impact financial condition sooner. but i financial conditions impact the economy with a lag as well. i think investors need to step in. treasury provide safe haven. but when the economy starts to show signs of de-acceleration, we are not there yet. i think we are in for a volatile time. the fed reaction function is beyond neutral. if we are going to have a significantly higher the
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neutral, along with the qt, that is when you do see that demand coming because then in the recession, they are trying to tease an impossible goal. to get inflation to 2% and a soft landing. they don't actually have a lot of control over inflation. i think we do need clarity from the fed to bring those flows in. we need to see the economy slowed down. i am not sure we are there in either case over the next few months. it will be very choppy for the next few months and broader financial conditions as well as interest rates. lisa: why is it not been choppy or in the corporate debt market, given the benchmark rates and the fact they are higher. growth concerns are becoming more central. priya: i think the corporate bond market is just starting to price the same because the move at the first quarter was really the front end. long and rates look relatively stable. now, when rates start to rise, there was a supply mix up. one of the reason they were resilient is that there were not a lot of supplies.
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the repricing of the entire secondary market, that is something the fed will be looking up, -- looking at, because credit becomes tight. i am really nervous about the corporate bond market. i think the equity market has done some work, and corporate bonds might be the next one is supply starts to pick up. jonathan: awesome to get your feeling print you know that. from td securities. just wonderful. we want to do this three times. tom: have her on real this afternoon. jonathan: we've always got space. i'm not sure she is time for us, sometimes. tom: i've noticed some of the inflation out there, and this is net gas from moments ago. three decimal points touching nine dollars per unit. i sent it to folks because i never understand bt use thermal units. is a british thing. paul sankey yesterday, with a shocking statement when the chinese come off lockdown. john, two dollars in august of
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2020. nine dollars, essentially, moments ago. e-models out $20 out there somewhere. stunning. jonathan: it is been a big week. lisa: u.s. natural gas is headed to its biggest weekly gain since 2020. it speaks to the exit that has not faded. jonathan: as the cartage is fading, we are down 7/10 of 1% on the nasdaq 100 i think we can call it semi carnage, relative to the monster week on wednesday. the nasdaq is down 5%. tom: very angst ridden. it reminds me of crystals and pyramids and the pendulum of angst. jonathan: they will be data-dependent. look at the dow. look at the data. 8:30 a.m. eastern. payrolls. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keep you up-to-date with
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the news from around the world, with first word. there is concern that the jobs report will show that the federal reserve needs to be more aggressive with rate hikes to contain inflation. the on employment rate has dropped to 3.5% while wages rose 5% over the last year. that is a report that is at 8:30 a.m.. the eu has proposed a revision to its oil band for seven countries -- for several countries have more time to comply. slovakia will get an extra year, and the czech republic would get an exemption till june of 2020 four. it would phase out russian imports by the end of this year elsewhere. government agencies in china and -- are getting ready for may companies. it is one of the most aggressive efforts yet to eradicate overseas technology. it involves 50 million foreign pcs being dumped. a fitness company, peloton, is looking to sell a stake of its
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20% as part of a turnaround push. they want to find a big name corporation or a private equity firm. it calls for high price spikes in treadmills since peloton is a high flyer during the pandemic. a group led by a former guggenheim president is close to agreement to buy english football club chelsea. it is one of the most successful of the past two decades. prices the highest ever paid for an english club. a russian billionaire put the team up for sale just before he was sanctioned by the british government. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, powered by more than 2400 journalists in more than 120 companies. this is bloomberg.
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>> i think we are going to hold at 110 to 115. we have fallen below 110, but we are back in the range that i anticipated. jonathan: he is one of the best. paul sankey, the founder and lead analyst. from new york city, good morning. jonathan ferro, tom keene lisa abramowicz. we are down another 8/10 of 1%. look out below. yields are coming up about five basis points. 3.0908. just to get you ready for the day ahead, the number comes out
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in about an hour and 12 minutes. next week, may 11, the estimate so far, very few estimates coming in, what our survey is slowly coming together here. the median is 8.1 percent revenue, down from 8.5%. then you have to work out what is happening at the corporate we are stripping out food and energy. i don't use this for a lot of your home, but that is what central bankers do. 6.1% down from 6.5. we are slowly coming together. tom: moving targets coming together, and it is staggering what the ecb will do off of the bank of england. this is a jobs day, an important job stay, the news lowest -- news flow is externally. we spoke to emily in washington about intelligence and the sinking i should say of a very large and important russian ship. and maria is in salzburg.
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the wonderful kimberly martin of barnard and the herring institute of her expertise, which is the 800 mile border of finland with russia. finland has a navy. is there navy at risk because of these reports out of nbc news brought on by the new york times and the washington post of u.s. intelligence and the sinking of a russian asset? maria: what we know is that finland will apply for nato membership read this is not official, but i wasn't helsinki three weeks ago, and to me, it was crystal clear that every mpi spoke to behind the scenes. they told me we are applying to nato. it could happen by mid may. a few days time. this is a complete change from the foreign policy that they have had for 60 years with russians they always pledged to be neutral, and of course, they said that is the best way to guarantee the safety of the country, and the big border.
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the russian invasion that happened in the second world war, it was through that point. i think they were worried about this. they feel that in the interim, they are not protected by nato. we know what happens when you are not protected by nato. look at ukraine. for the finish, the next few weeks will be delicate. they are warning about this. they say they need help from nato allies or something would happen. is a tricky few weeks before the membership is applied and hopefully accepted by the rest of the nato countries. tom: with all of your work, and i mean hard work, do you assume that today all of these different countries greek u.s. intelligence? they want u.s. intelligence? maria: they wanted. they definitely do, tom. i would say, by the way, it was just debated off the record about 50 minutes ago, they still said or told me, and i think it
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is remarkable, the u.s. has proven to be the bullies of the world. we talked about a year of leadig big foreign affairs. today, i heard from an official telling me that the intelligence was on point, it was perfect, they got it right. the timing was right. we spoke to ukrainians who say it is not just the weapons. it is the intel that the u.s. shares with us. it allows the ukraine to stay very competitive. in principle, the ukrainian should have lost weeks ago. this was an army that was almost outnumbered 10 to one. >> this is the international scene. on the domestic scene, we are an hour towards the labor market report that is expected to come in with another strong print how is the united states going to spin this when there are these constraints pushing up inflation, and you see the wage inflation on top of it. emily: we are going to see joe biden continue the message of looking at unemployment, and we are expecting to see the end of
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limit rate take down to 3.5%. that is something the democrats can tout as an example they've been able to bring the u.s. economy back from where it was to a pre-pandemic level. you are actually right. wage growth, we are expecting to see that in this report, it is not keeping up with inflation. that will be a major issue for democrats, come november. thirdly, something that republicans have hit, cuts on again and again and again. to a certain extent, the american voters find a good that people are back in jobs, but there is concern about the cost of grocery stores, the cost of the pond. that is something the biden administration is focused on trying to find ways to address. we see lawmakers discuss that with potential legislation that could address supply chains and other bottlenecks. to a certain extent, this is out of the white house's hand, it is a global issue. they are looking to the fed to see what they can do as far as bringing interest rates down. jonathan: thank you as always.
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secretary walsh is coming up illiterate later -- a little later. this is not on the radar, but the unions representing the port workers in l.a., there is around of loki -- negotiations coming up. secretary walsh may be involved in that. we need to talk about the terms of those negotiations, and at what point we leverage the power you have as an employee while holding the economy hostage? that is a difficult line to tread in the coming weeks as negotiations continue. tom: the los angeles time has done great work on this. these are exceptional matters as you allude to. the macro piece for secretary walsh is every study of shanghai and all of their lockdown issues. every study of freight dynamics is this problem is not going away. jonathan: we have perspective for an hour ago after the number drops. lisa: that is the bank of
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england position yesterday. they want wages to offset the real cost of living which is actually skyrocketing. real wages have been plunging. how does the united states deal with that when wage momentum upward is going to be a negative in terms of the longer-term outlook for inflation in the united states? it is a hard needle to thread. jonathan: governor bailey, yesterday, he was awkward. the chairman this week started a news conference by directly addressing the american people. lisa: they cannot seem tone deaf because people are feeling this. it is not an echo -- esoteric macro picture. tom: it's not their mandate. there sensitive, and all that, but this is new territory. the wokeness of central banks is new territory. jonathan: you have to go back to the year of inflation targeting central-bank independence. they were meant to be not accounted for by the electorate
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because they are meant to make hard decisions to keep inflation low. in the minds of some people, they are totally failing. that is why they are back under the spotlight. in a massive way. tom: i can feel the mail coming in. jonathan: futures are down .6%. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.
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johnson: two numbers popout off the paid for me this morning from the team at bank of america. 49 and 77. 49% of the nasdaq trading 50% below 52-week highs. 77% of the index already in a bear market. that is the destruction beneath the overall surface of the index. futures right now down .6% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 down .8%. yesterday was ugly, but ultimately on the week, coming into friday, only down by 0.03%. that has not felt that way, i know. futures down another .9% now. tom: this is important at 7:30 in the morning. the tape has not adjusted yet.
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we have not said that enough. johnson: we are -- jon: we are breaking down again. that is the equity story. yields keep breaking out and they did that again yesterday. they are doing it again this morning by five basis points on the 10 year. let's rounded up and call it 3.1. that is the surprising thing over the last couple of months. we talked about the fed pricing up for frontloading from the federal reserve, and a and yield, tens and 30's cap grinding higher. tom: the spread is not back to the steepness of yesterday but we made headway from 3:00 a.m. getting some curve steepening along with that yield move this morning. jon: we will catch up with mohamed el-erian later on this morning. he has picked up on this point, others have, too, we are seeing
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10 basis point moves without an immediate catalyst. that is the bond market. here is foreign-exchange. sterling, after a big move yesterday. cable, 1.2359. rates are going up, growth is going to slow. that is hurting the bank of england. does the ecb have to grapple with the same dilemma when they meet this month? that is a big topic of conversation coming up. tom: what did you say? jon: the penny has finally dropped. tom: lost in translation. like a british penny? do you remember schilling's and all of that charles dickens stuff? jon: a little bit before my time. tom: i was always lost by that. jon: i am lost by it now.
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why are we talking about this? i have a treat. some single names, moving this morning. bramo will run you through it. lisa: i knew you were going to do this, that is why i was laughing. i'm not going to give recommendations considering my bearish tilt. i'm really happy to do this because doordash -- this speaks to tom keene's household and how he orders mcdonald's. orders doordash and then they deliver it to the household. earnings are up in the premarket more than 6%. it was not horrendous. doordash shares are down 50% year to date heading into the session because of the reopening trade and how much it has gotten beaten up. zillow is a perfect example of a slowdown in the housing market. shares down 14% after reporting the lookahead really speaks to a lack of sales, actual
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transactions. the supply isn't there and people are getting nervous with mortgage rates at the highest levels since 2009. draftkings, everyone wants to bet on sports. tom: did you bet last night on draftkings on the met coming back against the phillies? lisa: they are doing pretty well. he is a big mets fan. so is mohamed el-erian. if you take a look at what is actually winning amid all of this carnage, it really is the energy sector. i find this amazing after the gains we have seen of more than 50% of the likes of even exxon. shares up even in the premarket. $91.05. occidental trillium got a boost after reporting good earnings, boosting put -- the dividend almost twice. marathon oil, up 1.3% after
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already having a blockbuster year. occidental petroleum still getting a next boost. tom: what do you think, john, never again? jonathan: i don't mind the bearish tilt. lisa: it was not bearish. an aspect of bearishness. jonathan: we alternate between bram out and tom doing this. tom: i would just do dow stocks. jonathan: they will be data-dependent. tom: very importantly, we have two big figures on the vix. equities deteriorate. jonathan: we are down on the nasdaq, not getting a bounce. tom: we have been short here on the jobs report this morning. we will adjust that right now with a phenomenal said to committee analysis. bloomberg economics. if the participation rate moves, things happen.
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if the participation rate covers about half to the pre-pandemic high, it would only take employment growth to 350,000 per month to get to a 3.0% unemployment this year. that is a stunning piece of what-if research. julia coronado is expert with this with macro policy perspectives. what is the level of fully employed? julia: the level in terms of numbers of jobs that we have left to fill? tom: helpfully employed r.o.e.? julia: we are not quite fully employed. the participation rate, as the research suggests, has been recovered rapidly. prime h labor force participation, that recovery has been accelerated steadily since january. 0.1, 0.3 in march.
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it looks like with a strong job market, rising inflation, fiscal support, people are coming back to the job market. we hear that in earnings reports. companies are actually reporting that they are having an easier time filling jobs. you also see that in the nfib. it doesn't quite show up in the data but we are hearing a lot about information and seeing it in surveys that there is some balancing of supply and demand that chair powell talked about. we will look at the report today, but i expect another gain in labor force participation, expect a cooling in labor demand. we see that in the ism surveys. people are nearing their staffing goals and now they are nervous about the outlook. we should see numbers. 350 is an extremely strong number. we are at 340 today but i would fully expect numbers closer to the 200,000. lisa: do you think the fed can
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be data-dependent when fed chair jay powell basically locked in the progression of rate hikes at 50 basis points over the next three sessions? julia: i think what chair powell expressed is enough confidence that the job market is strong enough, labor demand is strong enough that we can get two more 50 basis point rate they need to even consider slowing down or taking a look around. that just speaks to how incredibly strong the job market is. to tom's earlier reference to dickens, it is the best of times and the worst of times. in the labor market, it is the best of times for workers. we do see that balancing coming back into view after an extreme imbalance last year. tom: i am stunned by the charles dickens,. -- comments. julia: i was ready for you, tom.
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tom: you really nailed it. we can continue now. julia, we have a small issue with the hoover institution. michael mckee will speak to mr. quarles about the fed, and the fed action of the last 90 days where maybe they didn't act because they were trying to figure out the nomination policy -- process, i should say. does this have traction? julia: i am very disappointed in former vice chair quarrels suggesting this type of dynamic. he is just doing a disservice to the institution. i don't really want to dignify that. i think i have a lot of faith that chair powell does his level best to act in the best interest of the median term stability of the economy. i will not do monday morning quarterbacking of what they did last year. i think there were reasons that
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they were expecting inflation to moderate. we have been hit by shock aftershock, and now they are moving quickly. you have to give them credit for pivoting as quickly as they have. and they can pivot again if the data demands it. i think this is a data-dependent fed. there has been extreme noise. this has been one of the most incredible shocks the economy has ever experienced. the biggest change in what consumers by since world war ii. we have to give the economy some time to get its legs underneath it and adjust to this composition. meanwhile, the fed is trying to look through all of those adjustments and figure out what the medium-term looks like. i really don't want to go there actually. jonathan: you did go there in a way, because you said it doesn't matter, and i will tell you why i think we should spend more time on it.
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essentially a former fed official is questioning the credibility, timing of this pivot. that has implications on whether this is a credible pivot or not and whether chair powell is looking for a second term. why is the voice of the former governor not a credible one? julia: we have seen this a lot before. when kevin left the fed, he had some nasty things to say as he was positioning his post-career. what good is it going to do us to examine this? if you look at the value of the dollar, the yield curve, you have got some votes of confidence from the market that it will be a volatile time but the fed will manage to price stability in some way, shape, or form. it may take less or more pain but they will get us there. that is ultimately what we have the fed there to do, to do the hard work.
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so far, it is not always pretty, and you can certainly do this political second-guessing. i think the people that are in those seats right now are people that are trying to do the right thing, trying to do their job. jonathan: we appreciate your perspective as always. julia coronado of macro policy perspectives. on this payrolls friday, good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, let's get to first word news. i'm ritika gupta. the united nations says global food prices continue to hover near an all-time high. the krupp trait has been disrupted by the war in ukraine. the country has been one of the world's largest shippers of wheat and vegetable oil. high prices and drought have added to the problem. the u.s. is morning russian billionaires there is no hiding place for their yachts. this after they seized a super yacht in the u.s.
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the u.s. worked with officials in fiji to seize the vessel. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson's local elections lot control and three london strongholds. but he seemed to have eluded the sort of disaster that may have triggered another attempt by members of his party to replace him. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the u.s. being this strongest house in the neighborhood is leading to a lot of dollar
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strength which is only tightening u.s. financial conditions further. it is not just the u.s. economy is facing a more hawkish fed, it is also facing a much stronger dollar and those fed interest rate increases and dollar strength are both doubling up sloan the economy down. jonathan: the chief cross at that at morgan stanley. from new york, good morning. payrolls, 8:30 eastern time. futures negative -1% after an ugly close yesterday on the nasdaq down almost 5%. nasdaq futures down almost .7%. a little look at 1.22 earlier. on cable, going back to 20 20, pretty ugly out there. tom: the news flow is extraordinary. i was out doing my thousand steps yesterday. jonathan: just a thousand? tom: we have a job support
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coming up in 40 minutes. i'm sorry, it's important. jonathan: you know it is 10x? you are supposed to be doing 10,000 steps. tom: it cannot be 1000 steps? jonathan: i know. i can hear you puffing away when we speak. let's jack that up right now. tom: kriti gupta on volatility. >> you heard about the ugly close that john mentioned earlier. i want to put that into the context of volatility but not just equity market, volatility of the vix index. that brings me to my chart of the day. when you see an ugly close like that, you would expect volatility to go up and down. instead we see a muted volatility picture. the reason is who is behind the selling. driven more by etf rebounds, than institutional sellers hopping out.
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instead they are using options. i used several of my sources asking what is going on? ferro is not my source, although i wish he was. what they are saying is 4270 was the line in the sand, now they are barreling toward 4000, and that is where you could see moves. the move yesterday was etf driven. tom: kriti gupta, thank you. deutsche bank on the same page with the guy leading the charge on pound sterling. wonderful to talk about these analysts and as they agree to disagree. we share jordan rochester's pessimism on the u.k. but not the gap between global confidence and business confidence. the gap is massive and has never been bigger, a key driver of markets in coming months. joining us now is jordan rochester. 1.23 handle this morning. we affirm your call on week
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sterling. jordan: looking for 1.2250. we are probably going to be heading toward 1.20 at the right cable is going. there is not much stopping it from falling. the bank of england hiking yesterday, the pound lower after. essentially, real yields are weighing on the u.k. no matter what the bank of england does, if they don't entertain 50 basis point hikes, if they don't follow through with that, the front and prices will be disappointing. as a result of all of that, it is why we are happy to be short the pound come along the dollar. of the two central banks, the bank of england is much more worried about growth slowing down than the federal reserve right now. jonathan: what does positioning look like on some of those trades? jordan: the easier one is euro. for example, you put up deutsche
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bank's view on the pound. the positioning in sterling is not that short. i am concerned from a speculative positioning story for that trade. but the payments for the u.k. are such a mess, i still think sterling has lower. euro, very different. the market is slightly net long euro. leverage funds are net short, but not in a big way. you look at real money, insurance funds, pension funds, they are net long the euro. they have been wearing that trade all the way from 1.09 two where we are today. they are feeling the losses but they are yet to get rid of them. they are still net long euro. that is why i'm happy to be short euro from a positioning point. lisa: do you see parity as a breaking point? for the euro? i am not talking about cable.
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euro versus the dollar. jordan: indeed. things have been getting spicier with the ecb this morning, several speakers coming out, some suggesting even the idea of a rate hike in june is possible. i think that is a bit too spicy. on the curry chart, that is the vindaloo. comments coming out saying july is possible. jonathan: here we go. tom: are we in trouble? jonathan: jordan, thank you. jordan rochester. tom: you guys are nuts, could you translate for we mere mortals? jonathan: when you have had a long night, you get some, say, indian food. a really spicy dish is a vindaloo. curry. spicy dish.
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tom: what is this, little britain? jonathan: are we done? futures, negative have a percent on the s&p. tom: i'm just going to get the value meal and coffee. jonathan: that is not what you do in the u.k. tom: i go to dunkin' donuts and get a cup of coffee. jonathan: maybe you want a meal. lisa: you could walk an extra thousand steps. tom: rochester was out of control there. jonathan: you were out of control, too. tom: wearing a trade? jonathan: we had a lot of people, the show and talk about the move to 1.20. they said rates would go back to zero, but what we have experienced in the u.k., rates go up, but growth expectations come lower. currency has been hammered. tom: i will tell you this, john, i am wearing a triple leveraged
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cash trade. jonathan: cannot take you anywhere. really cannot. tom: you don't know who cindy is. jonathan: no idea. tom: it is like ted lasso. a third of the time when he doesn't have a beverage of his choice in him, i have no clue what ferro is saying. jonathan: generations removed. tom: that austrian bond i looked at this morning. jonathan: that is ugly. that austrian century bond is ugly. lisa: can i put on the record that you went to bond yields when you realize all is lost? jonathan: we spent five years together looking at the performance of the century bond. tom: can i get some more tang? jonathan: you have had more than enough. tom: can i get some doordash? jonathan: get the blankey and the rest. half of 1% on the s&p.
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the nasdaq, down about .6%. 8:30 eastern time, 30 minutes away. the payroll report. the median estimate is 380,000. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are still in the zone in terms of rate hikes. we are not on the open highway. >> already priced in a 1994 style hiking cycle in the u.s. >> it's fair to say soft landings are difficult. >> absolutely fundamental for the fed to get a slower labor market. >> inflation is the number one risk for markets. >> it's very hard to say inflation will just proceed. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and we. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day in america n


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