tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg May 8, 2022 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
>> good morning. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. >> i'm shery ahn in new york. welcome to daybreak asia. asian stocks are set for choppy trading with worries over high inflation and chinese trade data do later today. >> g7 leaders committed to banning oil imports from russia and reinforcing economic isolation.
china's premier warns covid lockdowns are creating a grave job situation as big cities are under restrictions. >> haslinda amin is reporting live from manila where voters are choosing the next president. president marcos junior seeking victory over vice president leni robredo. we will discuss it later with nobel prize-winning journalist maria ressa. >> it is said to be a mixed to lower start of trading in asia. this is the picture monday morning. sidney futures down by about .7%. it looks like we extended the losses we have seen over the last past months. this is suggesting an early to of about 1% when cash trading gets underway in the next hour. u.s. stocks falling. in the s&p 500 dropped to its lowest level in a year as of the recent jobs data released --
re-cemented expectations that higher rates will continue. the 10 year yield in australia at 3561 at the moment. -- 3.561 at the moment. the curve is steepening with the 10 year up about 10 basis points, just shy of nine, now coming down just a tad. new zealand a downside of .2%. we are watching dollar-yen at just above the 130 level with the dollar strength despite trading mixed within the g10 still seeing some of the impact when it comes to the yen. the yen giving back some of the strength we saw a little earlier on. we do have of course one i very much on the data coming out of china. chinese trade. given that we got the warning over the labor market from the premier saying it is complicated and grave. >> we already had labor market data in the u.s. on friday. payrolls coming in stronger than
expected. that is why we had first year yields dropping again with the 10 year yield treasuring -- trading around the 3% level. we will be watching the treasury space closely. we could see yields even higher at a time where we are seeing u.s. futures again extending declines we saw last week. the s&p 500 is losing ground for five consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak since 2011. not to mention, stocks are already near the one year low. continue to watch what is happening in the oil space. we saw gains in the early asian session. right now wti is moving farther from the one trying -- $110 level this as we have seen a saudi arabia cutting prices for buyers in asia given the demand outlook of china with its covid lockdowns. this of course as we see more from the european union on banning russian oil. let's discuss everything on the oil market headwind.
in more detail. of course we are talking about the g7 leaders committing to banning russian crude imports. we could see more volatility there not to mention the impact of chinese covid lockdowns. let's bring in su keenan and yvonne man with the latest. su, what are we expecting from these g7 efforts to bad russian oil? >> we are about to find out. this is the g7's first formal response to the invasion of ukraine. in addition to the ban on oil there is a measure to prohibit further services that will isolate russia across all sectors of its economy. on the call was the ukrainian president, on a video conference on sunday, the eve of may 9, which has historical significance for russia. after the call the g7 leaders pledged to impose a ban on oil imports. several g7 countries have already done something similar.
the u.s. and the u.k. have banned it. that germany is set to get rid of russian oil by the end of january. the g7 pledge is the furthest that japan's prime minister has gone in committing his country to halting russian oil purchases. that decision from the g7 comes as the eu has a struggle agree on its own ban. the statement coming out of the g7 is it that it will continue its actions against russian banks and russia's financial elite and their family members but now there is a plan to formally ban its oil. >> ivanka -- ivonne we heard from the premier over the weekend, grave and complicated is his outlook for the labor market. what is that policymakers need to do? >> they were basically instructed over the weekend, the department said regions, to start prioritizing these
measures to help businesses retain jobs and whether the current difficulties. in that, you saw the two most important banks -- cities in china beijing and shanghai ramp up a more dense measures over the weekend. this is further complicating what already looks to be contradictory goals of zero covid as well as around 5.5% growth. we saw over the weekend that when it comes to cases in china, 4384 new covid cases saturday. shanghai now down from that 4000 plus daily infections we have seen before. beijing has a 62 new cases. they are now requiring all residents in the eastern district of chaoyang to work from home. this is a desperate home to many embassies. also home to many multinational offices of apple, alibaba, and also, non-essential services like movie theaters and gyms. all of those in that district
have been forced to shut down. look at the unappointed picture. this shows now that supporting employment is a main priority for the economy now. we have seen the jobless rate time in march to 5.8%, the weakest we have seen since may 2020. so, certainly, this is now something policymakers are very much in focus for. >> it seems like the saudi's are also watching chinese economic uncertainty very closely. they have cut their oil prices for asia. >> this is the first time they have cut prices to age in four months. it very much has to do with the lockdown. saudi arabia since 60% of its oil to asia with china, japan, south korea, and india being the biggest buyers. for the next months, they are slashing shipments to asia for -- by almost five dollars per barrel. also in the northwest european region, almost all the
mediterranean, and not the u.s.. you know, the oil is little changed. as the week opened, we were thinking investors were still weighing the impact of the g7 pledge and the cut in prices but we are down silently -- slightly. wti closed just below 110 a barrel after reaching a six-week high on friday. >> yvonne we are getting a trade numbers. what are they expected to show us about the impact of the lockdowns? >> we will see the extent of the damage from the shanghai lockdown in april. we will really start to see it. as a manufacturer of the world you are starting to see when it comes to china these relentless lockdown measures are not just weighing on that best economy but globally at also adding risk to the inflation picture as well. exports are expected to only grow 2.7%, the weakest we have seen since june 2020. imports are expected to contract for a second month by 3%. that just goes to show you that
-- how weak consumer sentiment is at a time when shanghai residents, millions, are not spending and are locked down at home. the inflation picture is interesting. its focus for sure isn't the disruption we are seeing when it comes to shortages of food and how that is driving up cost as well. >> yvonne man and su keenan. investors were whiplash to buy the fed last week. that's more catalyst for volatility as well. andrea, bond markets are facing more event risk. >> that's right. this could be a very critical reek -- week for bond markets. u.s. treasury yields could crack the 2018 high. now, the two main things happening this week is we will
get the april u.s. cpi. interestingly, that might actually moderate from the march i, the high -- high, the highest since 1982. you are also getting one of the biggest months for supply in the u.s. happening against a background of deteriorating liquidity. we have prop s at volatility. we have increased correlations. that's not helping bond markets. we have investors historically with the least risk appetite according to a jp morgan survey. the auctions in the u.s. where you are likely to see the investors, especially at the long end, the 10 year, the 30 year, want to be compensated for this inflation worries. there are concerns that the fed cannot address this inflation problem. >> in equities we are seeing u.s. futures losing ground spy a lot given this time of the day
in asian trading. s&p many futures down .7%. that does not necessarily happen this early. what's going on. ? >> look, i think you are seeing an ongoing thrust being taken out of the market. it is interesting to note that a lot of what is happening now, perhaps, should not have come as such a surprise given the rallies we have seen over the last two years. and given that we have had concerns about a very rich valuations in the tech sectors. exuberant valuations in the meme stocks. what you are seeing is cautiousness because of the backdrop of high inflation, the prospect of stagflation. a lot of what people have been talking about over the last three years is now starting to play out.
>> bank of america is saying equity lows, yield highs have yet to be reached. bloomberg's cross asset asia editorandreea pacuc with insight into markets. >> john lee is hong kong's next chief executive. after his victory he vowed it to strengthen national security. he says his new job calls for accountability to both beijing and hong kong. the european union called on authorities to respect commitments to democracy. two candidates vying to become australia's next prime minister clashed in election debate. scott morrison and anthony albanese were grilled on housing issues, corruption, and rising inflation. the pair accused each other of being unsuitable to lead. australians had to the polls may
21. polling stations have opened under the philippines for election that could see the son of the dictator ferdinand marcos take the presidency more than three did -- decades after his father was ousted. his main of home and vice president -- main opponent vice president leni robredo has held some of the biggest pre-election rallies in decades. the u.s. has banned american accounting and consulting firms from working with russia and imposed sanctions on gazprom banks. also limits on russian television stations and additional visa restrictions. global news 24 hours a day on air and member quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. >> next we will have more on the philippines elections.
>> there catalyst for more market volatility. in russia it is victory day monday the anniversary of the german surrender in 1945. vladimir putin is expected to speak and potentially touch on the war in ukraine. in the u.s. inflation data is expected to show that price pressures are easing from the highest levels in four decades. fed speakers will be out to defend policy actions.
in asia investors face a grim warning from the chinese premier. he said over the weekend that the job situation in china is grave. we will get an update of the damage do -- the damage on trade data due monday. christina it's the senior economist at moody's analytics. we are expecting trade numbers for china to really show cracks in the economy from the lockdowns in shanghai. the port disruptions and all of the other ripple effects we continue to see with these covid restrictions. what is your read on how impacted we could see the numbers going forward and what more policymakers can do? >> that right we are expecting to see a very decent a celebration in china's export growth as a result of these extended and aggressive lockdowns. we are looking at export growth 4% year-over-year.
it shows the intense damage the zero covid policy is having on china's economy. it is disrupting ports. it is disrupting manufacturing. it is hurting china's economic recovery because and zoomers and businesses are basically forced back into hibernation in stark contrast to the rest of the world that has really embraced pandemic living, highlighting the economic pain of these policies. what policymakers can do if they stick with the zero covid policy is provide ongoing fiscal and monetary support targeted to households and businesses feeling particular pain, so that when they start to emerge from the lockdown there is some push on the demand environment that has happened. >> for the longest time there was this argument that china needs to hit a certain level of gdp to maintain stability in the labor market. that was the rationale we had for so many years, right?
is that correlation still holding true? if that is the case they will not meet 5.5 this year presumably. what they need to do to support the job market? >> they need to basically continue to incubate. we saw the best economic policies through the pandemic for other countries were those that reall targeted insulated households and businesses. they provided them ongoing fiscal support, income while they were forced to two, for example, be stuck in their homes so when they were allowed out they were able to, you know, get back to their jobs and provide job security. because, the moment job security and ongoing jobs creation is incredibly important for china not just from an economic growth point of view but from a social cohesion point of view. what is happening in china is that gdp growth expectations for this year continually are
getting downwardly revised. >> what does not seem to be getting downward relate -- downwardly revised are inflation numbers around the region. we have central bank numbers from malaysia. other emerging-market currencies given the strength of the dollar, will malaysian policymakers move this time around? >> we expected that malaysia will hold steady this month. but they have been quite vocal in terms of their resistance in wanting to keep accommodative monetary policy settings in place despite inflation taking higher. what will be interesting over the next couple weeks is if they are pushed off the sidelines and moved to try to stabilize the currency and anchor inflation expectations that are rising as a result of higher food prices. that's not just a malaysia issue. that the regional and global issue.
>> especially out of in the philippines as well as rising prices become a political issue. of course we have the philippine election. voters are turning out today. what are you expecting to be the biggest economic challenges for whoever takes the presidency? >> good question. our expectation would be inflation will really be a front and center issue in terms of near-term policymaking for the new government in utilities because we have seen inflation higher because -- higher and that is particularly hurting housel discretionary income. we know that as a result of the covid pandemic that hit the philippines particularly hard, there has been lasting scars. one of those has been rising income inequality. so, you have that double whammy, that unfortunate issue of higher income inequality as well as higher inflation hurting lower to middle income household. >> katrina ell senior economist at moody's analytics.
here is a check of the latest business headlines. rogers communication says canada's antitrust agency is opposing its takeover of rival shaw rising -- raising doubts that one of the nation's biggest ever deals will close. they are willing to sell assets to resolve the concern. the company is extending the deadline for the merger until the end of july. a group led by former guggenheim partners president and clearly capital agreed to by chelsea football club for $5.2 billion
ending russian billionaires roman obama fitch -- roman abramovich's tenure of the team. following a bidding war that went on for nearly two months. china oceanwide lost a property in new york to lenders after failing to make mortgage payments. the company planned to develop one of lower manhattan's tallest towers on the property. they defaulted on a $165 million loan on the project leading to receiver becoming the properties custodian. >> let's look at how we are shaping up when it comes to the start of trading in asia. we are seeing u.s. futures holding pretty steady but starting to add to last week's losses. it's a negative view we are seeing cast across the market open in asia this monday morning. the nasdaq 100 futures are up by about .7%.
the dow is also to the downside by over .5 percent. treasury contracts are holding steady but certainly we are seeing the selloff in bond markets resume as well as in bitcoin. so a great deal of volatility across many asset classes wherever you look including over in fx. we are seeing the dollar trade pretty mixed versus the g10 space in the early part of the sydney trade, though, we are seeing a little pullback when it comes to the yen strength we saw earlier. the aussie dollar is holding about 70 u.s. sends though there is a little bearish momentum building there. we are watching government bonds in australia and new zealand falling along with treasury futures on the prospect tied to global monetary policy. we saw that bid steepening when it comes to the australian euro debt yield curve up about 10 basis points in the early parts of the trade. china we had the premier staff warning, grave and complicated times for the job situation in china.
we see sustained lockdowns and restrictions continuing across parts of china. >> to your point on the global bonds a selloff look at what is happening now with the 10 year australia. it is already at the highest since 2014. remember, we had government bonds falling after the rva said it would need to raise rates last week further. unemployment is forecasted to drop to the lowest levels since 1974. kiwi 10 year yields are at the highest since 2015 as we continue to watch the latest labor developments in the u.s.. rising by 428,000 on the data came out friday. hourly earnings growing less than expected so it's a mixed picture when it comes to inflation. but we are watching the treasury space. we already have the 10 year yield, the 30 year yield, jumping on across the board. we are talking about 2018 highs.
but, that could be topped this week depending on what happens with the u.s. cpi numbers not to mention big dead seals coming up. also coming up, journalist and nobel peace prize winner are maria -- winner xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. switch to xfinity mobile for half the price of verizon. new and existing customers get amazing value with our everyday pricing. switch today. xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets.
>> we have breaking labor cash earnings out of japan right now. getting 1.2 percent for march, a higher acceleration of than expected. it is also coming in at the same level of growth as in the previous month. in mid-march we saw easing of restrictions across japan. year on year there is still a contraction of .2% but a much lower contraction than what was expected.
and it is still going into negative territory from the previous month. year on year, labor cash earnings coming in at 1.2% growth. we will continue to watch japan because we have boj minutes later today and household spending data later in the week that will give clear insight into what is happening in japanese households as we continue to see a weaker yen eroding with the strength of japanese households. let's get to vonnie quinn with the headlines. >> g7 leaders have tried to ban the import of russian lawyers -- russian oil over the war in ukraine. the decision came on the people of russian's day, which celebrates the defeat of nazi germany. lot downs in china are weighing on japan.
saudi aramco dropped out at four dollars a barrel after nine dollars in may and lowered rates for western europe. chinese premier league warns about a grave situation for jobs amid conveyed restrictions in shanghai. the morning came out as the job rate climbs to the highest since may of 2020. south korea says pyongyang appears to have fired a ballistic missile from a submarine three days after the north lodged what might have been a medium-range ballistic missile. tension is ratcheting up before the south korean president elect takes office tuesday. joe biden is expected to make his first presidential visit to seoul.
global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: polling stations have opened in the philippines for the election that could see the only son of the late dictator take that presidency more than three decades after his father was ousted. let's go to manila where haslinda is standing by with our next guest. >> 65 million voters. a lot is at stake. the future of democracy, the future of governance. joining us as the cofounder and ceo awarded the nobel peace prize. this election has been defined by disinformation and it has been systematically done over the years by marcos june.
how does this play out, how is it possible? >> what you are seeing in the philippines is emblematic of every election globally this year. 32, i believe. what this shows you is how systematic information operations can impact and change reality in plain sight. a lot of time was spent looking at the evidence and we saw as early as 2014, not coincidentally the same time information warfare began in crimea, right before the annexation. that was when the disinformation networks began and shifted reality and history in front of our eyes. and he did not win the vice presidency in 2016 but then they double down. it is almost brilliant if you think about it. if you are in a car skidding on ice, you are told to press the
gas and turn into the skid. that is what he did. he admitted on the network online, you are told they have the money and many believe now that if he wins, he will give the money back to the people. reporter: who is responsible for it? should technology companies be made accountable for what is happening now? >> absolutely. social media, the world's largest delivery platform of news is facebook and yet the algorithms that determine what you get on your feed literally splinter us apart and rhino colitis us. in the business model the goal is to keep you scrolling, not to give you information. it is to hook you emotionally. they do that, this is a study from m.i.t. that shows that lies
laced with anger and hate spread faster than facts. even during the pandemic, the numbers of the companies increased in order to continue the model they have. they essentially take our private data and own it. these things need to be laid out . laws have to be put in place and governments have also abdicated responsibility for our protection. this is what you get. marcos jr., 36 years later, set to become president. reporter: we talk about algorithms and it is playing out in surveys. surveys suggest he is leading by double digits but if you go to google, it shows his opponent is ahead. >> i think google trends is grasping at straws. there are things to be inspired
about in her campaign. she sparked inspiration at the same time as zelenskyy did. he has inspired the free world to take action quickly. in her case, google trend is a coincidence. it measures searches. just because you searched for a name doesn't mean you will vote for them. he just happened in the last five global election -- elections globally, the search led to a win. but what we can see is this outpouring of volunteerism, something we never see in the philippines. starting in march, her campaign began to inspire filipinos. the fear washed out on a certainty of marcos winning galvanized. people power was a metro manila phenomenon but the question is,
people are inspired, but will they go out and vote? reporter: i also wonder how much education and the role of education plays into critical reading of the news and into understanding where you are getting your sources. with all of this misinformation, what can be done? >> education remains a constant problem and it is a problem for our next generation of labor. but the game changer here is technology. essentially, this gives you the information that bypasses irrational thinking. facebook, youtube, you don't actually think when you were on them. the goal is to trigger your emotion and moral outrage.
and that becomes a rule. you do not think history. you do not think rationally on the platforms, by design. that is how they make more money . so all of the old world problems remain, but the game changer technology, the best description of the problem we face came from a biologist who said the greatest crisis we face is our emotion, medieval institution, and godlike technology. reporter: in this age of godlike technology, what is the role for news platforms? particularly looking at situations where some are unable to work with the commission on elections. does that worry you about disinformation, the ability to fact-check? >> you are cutting in and out but from what i heard, what is
the role of news organizations like us. bloomberg you are isolated because you have your tv and a built-in audience of business. but for us, we lost gatekeeping powers, journalists did, in 2014. we still create holding power to account but distribution is out of our hands. that is what is being used to manipulate every person in democracy. and you are talking about at a mass scale. what do we do? we are defenseless against the attacks against our credibility and personal attacks. it is the same tactic no matter where you are talking about, you suppress, pounded into silence, you get attacked, you take that narrative out. that is the first step.
second, replace. that is what marcos jr. has done . he does not need traditional journalists asking him pesky questions about the past. he has his own influencers who are given extra access to him and it makes it impossible to tell the difference between news and propaganda. reporter: he has evaded debate and one-on-one conversations. and a lot is at stake for the country but also for you. whoever wins the presidency will have huge implications for you. >> i think for journalism, for filipinos, for human rights. for me, i joke and sometimes it is a joke and sometimes it is not. i could go to jail for the rest of my life. we have successfully fought.
but who knows what will happen? the next 24 hours will be very critical for the philippines. if we fall, it will not be the philippines alone. this is a global information ecosystem and if the philippines fall, like in 2016, we were the first domino to fall followed by brexit, trump, and here you go again. brazil has elections in october. the u.s. has elections in november. if we fall, it is coming for you. we have to do something about this globally, not just in the philippines. reporter: thank you for being here today. heidy, back to you. haidi: thank you, we really appreciate your time. coming up next, softbank operators have [indiscernible] as we see japan looking to
when i come to the close on wall street. japanese equities rose in the previous section as the government plans to loosen border controls. we saw the lift from the yen weakening but it is starting to fall back a little is yell -- as well. nikkei futures traded in singapore off by 1.5%. we are watching the yield differential. it is widening with the u.s. as we get the jobs report from the wall street session suggesting forcing ahead when it comes to fed tightening. the yen seeing weakness in the past few sessions on the widening different she -- differential underpinning the dollar. australia and new zealand are lower as we see the resumption of the global bond selloff.
let's look at other stories we are watching. march labor cash earnings rising to 1.2% year on year, beating estimates. boj will release minutes from their latest amending test meeting. and pmi data is on the calendar. shery: japan said to open borders to small groups of vaccinated foreign tourists and a potential lifeline for their travel industry. the prime minister says he plans to relax in line with g7 peers in june. softbank hotel operative might be a beneficiary after refreshing their late -- their brand last month. they operate 7000 rooms and
maintains an average occupancy rate of 40% during the pandemic. joining us from tokyo is the ceo. good to have you with us. how much do you expect border opening to help this year? >> thank you for having me. last week was the golden week and it had been three years since we enjoyed it without covid. we have achieved [indiscernible] but we finally are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. during covid there was less
occupancy but now we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. the prime minister announced he will open some barriers and that will impact positively on inbound travelers. shery: why did you rebrand during the pandemic? can you explain your structure now? who are your biggest stakeholders? tell us a little bit about the changes. >> thank you for your question. the stakeholders do not change. they are still softbank and oil. recently we raised the money from japan investment corporation and we will leverage
into investing technologies to help small and medium enterprises in japan. the reason why we changed our name is because recently japanese travelers changed their designations. pre-covid and during covid, japanese travelers wanted to travel out of japan and experience new exotic things. they wanted to leave japan because they were afraid of infection. so they wanted to know more about local cuisine and local things and that is why we want to change our brand to focus more on local content and that is why we changed our brand
name. haidi: how soon do backers expect the company to make a profit, and have you given any thought to a potential ipo in japan? >> definitely. next year we will -- regulated to travel and recently globally we will face inflation so we have to make a profit over growth this year. after the pandemic disappears we will achieve and next year we will make annual level profitability definitely. haidi: what is a change japan needs most right now? >> i think there is an opportunity for japanese tourism industry.
80% of hotel operators in japan operate by small and medium-sized hotels. they are struggling with low occupancy, 30%, even before covid. so that is why we are considering technology platforms for them to increase productivity. that is the more important thing for us to grapple with. haidi: it was a pleasure to have you with us. we appreciate your time. you can get more from this interview on tv and also
tune in on japan ahead every week to hear from the prominent business names across the japanese business at economy on monday mornings tokyo time. we have the boj releasing minutes from their march meeting, saying they will not hesitate to add easing if needed and we are watching for any indication of any thoughts of essentially indications of tightening as we see the boj is one of the few major central banks veering in the opposite direction to what we see from the fed on global central banks in the start of it. we see a quick pace of inflation in japan and have heard from the bank of japan really looking at the type of inflation taking a fact and saying a lot of it is transitory due to energy and volatile food costs.
but the fastest tokyo inflation in decades and that complicates the messaging we see from boj. we are just getting those minutes crossing the bloomberg now. shery: and we are getting shanghai covid numbers. 3947 new local cases on friday, adding 11 covid deaths, according to cctv news. and covid case numbers are easing in shanghai but restrictions continue to be in place. they are warning of a complicated and grave employment situation. there is plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: japanese earnings kicking off in the coming week. this as the topix is below the 10 year average. take a look at earnings estimates. the topics expected to see near double digits eps growth this year with positive momentum expected for the nikkei. estimates near all-time highs amid slowing growth. haidi: we are getting more from
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reporter: i am reporting live from the philippines as they are about to choose their next president. marcos jr is set to win. shery: so much for markets to factor into the session. japanese equity market -- markets are under pressure with the nikkei followed more than 1% is the japanese when continues getting weaker against the u.s. dollar after nonconsecutive weeks of losses against the great black, the longest -- greenback, the largest since 2013. jgb yield holding in the limited of tolerance. boj march policy meeting just came out and they are emphasizing that will not hesitate to add to easing if needed. if you by -- a few policy makers
say inflation in japan is different than that in the u.s. or u.k. despite the fact that we continue to see price pressures. the growth of 1.2% year on year, beating expectations. south korea, we've already seen sessions of loss for the kospi which is losing 4/10 of 1%. the korean won holding steady after falling already to the march 2020 low against the u.s. dollar. we continue to watch developments around currency as weakness continues in south korea. haidi: and we are seeing weakness continuing at the start of the trading session in sydney. the asx extending deep declines we saw on friday, the biggest drop we had since february 24 as risk sentiment takes a turn.
a little upside coming through on energy but that is still tempered. quite a bit of risk when it comes to the macro picture. we are watching for chinese trade data that could show us the extent of the damaged supply chain given the impact of the covid lockdowns and restrictions. 10 year yields, presumptions of sellings in the bond space. kiwi and australia bonds are being sold off and that is that steepening of the yield curve continuing as well. he was stocks are up .5%. weakness in the kiwi and aussie dollars, weakening for the start of asian trading amid inflationary concerns and economic damage from covid lockdowns in china. the aussie dollar falling almost half a percent headed for a third day of losses. suggesting a test could occur
later this week. treasuries are holding steady but we continue to see weakness across sovereign bonds, concerns over global growth and whether a policy mistake could set the global economy on track for recessionary conditions. we are seeing weakness with brent crude, 7/10 of 1% lower as we see the processing of the g7 ban on russian crude. a number of nations have already placed their own commitment but for japan this will be the furthest they have gone to commit to eliminating demand for russian crude. so we will continue to watch this market as opec plus is seeking to their output increases. shery: our next guest says volatility needs to be traded.
max, good to have you with us. what strategy are you looking at that you would get the exposure and protection you want, and how much of those -- of this strategy would involve cash? >> from an asset allocation perspective, definitely cash increase in the last week, since the beginning of the year but depending on risk we could be sitting on up to 50%. but volatility at these levels needs to be traded. [indiscernible] at a certain point you want to start getting exposure to the market and you can trade that volatility by financing with [indiscernible] lower and that is something we have been doing. it potentially gives you
opportunities to enter at a better spot. currently we have a more defensive stance. from a geographical point of view we like switzerland, singapore. in terms of industry, nasdaq is more on the technical side. growth will remain under pressure. we look at more stable companies. utilities, dividends. knowing that if the market corrects, everything will. this is about sentiment and flow rather than valuation. haidi: how fully invested do you stay in this environment? >> liquidity depends on your
risk should be 20% to 50% and you will probably get opportunities to use of a better level so you will see potentially better entry level but liquidity allows you to be more aggressive in terms of optionality strategies. if you are lighter, you can take advantage of volatility with a lighter mind. haidi: if you want to trade the volatility, there are many opportunities available when it comes to chinese stocks at the moment. his it is -- is this still a falling knife situation with covid situation and regulatory and structural adjustments on crackdowns? >> valuations of chinese assets are extremely cheap but
short-term they could get cheaper. so there is little visibility. so china remains an attractive market. some of the chinese companies trade with the good margin and have good growth and have showed consistency. but in the short-term they could fall more. when you talk about china you have to look at the long-term strategy and think of it that way. you can trade outright or sell options or equivalent of that on some names that have high villa utility -- that have high volatility. haidi: the last time we spoke to you, one of the major things was semi conductors. with the numbers we have seen on the earnings season, has that changed? >> not at all.
in terms of structural growth in industry, semi conductors continue to be one we really like against cyber security in the future of pharma. semi conductors, some of the numbers have been quite good. you will get cyclicality. semi conductors will be impacted , they are not isolated. but they will be critical for the growing demand and market going forward. haidi: max, great to have you with us, as always. let's get to vonnie quinn in new york. >> john lee has been named hong kong's chief executive on sunday.
he vows to strengthen national security and accelerate integration with mainland china. he says his new job calls for accountability to beijing and hong kong. the you called on authorities to respect his commitment to democracy. that two candidates vying to become australia's next prime minister have clashed in a debate. they were grilled on cost-of-living issues and rising inflation. the conversation often deteriorated into a yelling match, accusing each other of being unsuitable to lead. australians vote may 21. the philippines have an election that could see the son of the late dictator take presidency three decades after his father was ousted. marcos jr lead opinion surveys by double digits. his main opponent has held some of the biggest pre-election rallies in decades as she looks
to pollen upset. dr. biden has made an unannounced visit to ukraine to meet with the wife of vladimir zelenskyy and some children. she traveled to a public school that is being used as temporary housing. irish rock band u2 also have visited kyiv as a support for the people. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, more on hong kong's chief executive. we will discuss his election with a member of the cabinet. and china's premier warns covid lockdowns are creating a grave job situation. more of that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: china's premier has warned of a potentially grave employment situation due to the covid outbreak. this is a political and social pressure point for beijing. how do they maintain support for the job market knowing that the gdp target probably will not be met this year? >> premier league this weekend called it a grave and complin, and it is. all the data we have shown -- we have gotten shows a tremendous slowing.
the premier is calling for banks and financial institutions to extend more loans to small and medium sized enterprises and there's been talk of given a mortgage holiday for those who have taken loans to buy homes. there are things the government can do. more fiscal spending. but the question is as long as these lockdowns continue, how much can we do to shore up the economy. shery: we have important eco-data and numbers from the pboc and perhaps they are moving on their lending facility. what are you watching? >> i think the government will be doing all its can. i think the numbers when it comes to the economy is watching how many infections we have in shanghai and in the community that has been stubbornly low but
has not yet reached zero. until that area remains zero, shanghai will essentially be a lockdown. if the number goes up we could see restrictions go up in other areas. starting today, we are being asked to work from home. as that number climbs, more restrictions could be in place. so infections will probably be more definitive for the economy than anything else. shery: the covid zero policy. we are also watching crude oil pulled back slightly as leaders of the g7 pledged to ban the import of russian oil over the ukraine were. su keenan has more. let's start with the g7. are we expecting an effect when it comes to oil prices? >> it should because it comes as
the eu is still struggling to impose this oil pan, which is the key response. it was a video conference call with ukraine's president on the people of russia's victory day and after the call they pledged to ban oil imports from russia. several g7 companies already pledged to diversify away from russian supplies. germany has backed a plan for the eu to ease out of russian oil by january. g7 pledged is the furthest japan's prime minister has gone to halting russian oil purchases and the g7 statement includes pledges to continue actions against russian banks and the financial elite and family members. they also plan to prohibit key services and this is all
designed to reinforce russia's isolation across all sectors of its economy. haidi: an interesting dynamic because traders are also trying to weigh in the price cuts from saudi arabia. >> it looks like they have offset any impact you would have from that g7 move. saudi arabia is the world's biggest oil producer. they send more than 60% of their oil to asia. chinese lockdowns have clearly reduced demand and that is of concern to saudi arabia. they have cut prices for asia by about five dollars for the key arab light crude for the next shipment. you are looking at oil prices down as asian trading has opened.
down slightly after closing at a six week high on friday so we are coming off of high levels but investors are still digesting. aramco's decision comes days after opec-plus agreed to continue uproot. -- continued output. there have been reports that for months they have had trouble meeting that hikes so there are still a lot of constraints on oil. the ban on russian oil offset by the saudi price cut at this hour. haidi: let's check in on how futures in europe are opening given as how we have uncertainty when it comes to oil and the meeting of g7 leaders over the weekends. we see further downside.
european stocks extended losses going into the friday session. at one point hitting the lowest level in almost two months. a brute -- a bleak economic outlook. governor bailey last week not adding much positive sentiment. rising bond yields keeping a lock on sentiment as well. stoxx 600 index fell 2% at the close in london and european broad equity benchmark hitting a two month low. we saw a fade from the initial euphoria. you can get a round up of the stories you need. subscribe to tv on the terminal. they are also on the bloomberg anywhere app.
>> i think the fed's actions were reasonable through the summer of 2021. by september it was becoming clear this was not primarily a supply chain disruption because of disruption, it is because of overstimulated demands during inflation and at that point, in hindsight i think it would have served the fed well to move in september. very difficult to determine that at that point, but i think in hindsight that is when they should have moved. >> it is absolutely essential
that the fed regain credibility. it will not do so until it does with the ecb did, tell us why the forecast was so wrong for so wrong and how to improve the methodology. unless it does that and becomes honest, it will not be able to restore credibility. it will find more and more people close to the fed stepping away. haidi: some earlier gas on the fed credibility issue as monetary policy continues to tighten. this is being factored into the global bond selloff that continues today about the 10-year yield in australia now surpassing the 2.5% level. we continue to seek government bonds in australia falling after the rba said they will need to raise interest rates further as unemployment is forecast to drop to the lowest level since 1974 and this is we already have the payroll numbers in the u.s. on friday which was pretty strong and said yields jumping.
the two year yield at the 20 high. if it breaks that level we are talking about a 2008 height, a level we have not seen since the financial crisis. the 10 remaining above the 3% and yields rising in the asian session. if it tops the 3.25 percent that was the highest in 2018, we could go back to levels we have not seen since 2011. haidi: let's get a quick check of the headlines. a group led by the former guggenheim partners are president says clear lake capital has agreed to by the football club. this ends russian billionaires 19 year tenure at the london team. the price is one of the highest ever after a bidding war that went on for two months. topping analysts ends --
estimates as kospi continues to decline. the bank will pay dividends of 61 australian cents per share, higher than expectations. peter king says london's economic outlook is positive despite higher inflation. shery: we are following the latest on hsbc after the bloomberg report mentioned they are under attack from the top shouldered that it might want to break up the band and this is interesting because for the longest time we have seen a cozy relationship between them. so when we heard the news that pinyon was backing breaking up the bank it rippled through the market and this comes at a time when we are talking about regulatory wins in china changing. so perhaps this is just pinyon understanding but these could be
huge. hsbc headquartered in london but operating across 64 countries, including hong kong, singapore, india, malaysia, with half their employees in asia. a breakup would cost billions of dollars. haidi: it is quite a turn. this is a long-term support of shareholder we are talking about. lots of questions about why this is happening now. is it because of pinyon's own stock plunge? what would hsbc bowing to political tensions look like and how would they work? analysts say the chances of a breakup at this point remain remote for now but a fascinating story to watch. you can read more about it on the bloomberg charitable -- terminal or on bloomberg.com. up next, hong kong formally
announcing john lee as their next leader. we will speak with a member of his cabinet, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to golo.com to get yours.
shery: breaking pmi numbers out of japan. we are getting new services number. the final reading for the month of april coming in at 50.7 which is slightly higher than the advanced estimate of 50.5. when it comes to the composite number we are talking about staying in expansionary territory. also coming in slightly higher at the advanced number at 51.1. the march numbers of course were around the contraction territory, so we are talking about really entering expansionary territory for the first time in four months.
this is how markets are trading right now with the japanese yen continuing to weaken against the u.s. dollar at the 130 level. this after nine weeks of losses against the u.s. dollar, the longest run since 2013. you look at the nikkei and the topix, they are losing ground with the nikkei down more than 1.5%. consumer discretionary and communication stocks leading the declines. utilities slightly higher as we continue to see more haven-like sectors gaining ground. let's now get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: g7 leaders have pledged to ban the import of russian oil over the war in ukraine. the root said it is committed to phasing out russian energy in a timely and orderly fashion to provide time for the world's other supplies. it came on the eve of russia's victory day commemorating russia's defeat of nazi germany in world war ii. saudi arabia has cut oil prices
for asian buyers from record highs as covid lockdowns in china weigh on demand. state owned saudi aramco dropped to around four dollars a barrel down from around nine dollars in may. it also lowered all rates for northwest euro although prices for u.s. has remained the same. the u.s. has banned consultant firms from working with russia as part of a new package targeted at moscow. the latest penalties include new export controls on industrial goods, limits on three of russia's top state-controlled television stations, and divisional visa restrictions. chinese premier league is warning of a complicated and grave situation for jobs as beijing and shanghai titan covid restrictions. he emphasized the need to stabilize employment in a late saturday statement. it came after the nation's jobless rate was the highest and's may have 2020 -- highest since may of 2020.
global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: we are getting some further elaboration from the japanese prime minister, really talking about the decision japan has taken to join in on the g7 commitment to eliminate imports of russian oil. they will phase out russian oil in steps although the details are not yet set. saying it was a difficult decision but japan will ban russian oil, elaborating on the fact that it is a difficult decision for any country that imports most of its energy. but this is a time when g7 unity is more important than anything. japan had previously announced plans to phase out imports of russian coal, also without giving a deadline. the country gets about 3.6% of its crude oil from russia as of 2021. but this coming after a call
with other g7 leaders and ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy over the weekend where the commitment had been made to ban imports of oil from russia. as we saw several g7 countries already independently pledging to diversify away from russian supplies including a call for the u.s. on u.k. banning russian imports and germany backing a proposal for the eu to get rid of it by january. that pledge is now becoming the furthest japan has gone in committing its country to halting russian oil purchases. let's turn to hong kong. it is formally can's -- confirmed genre lead as -- let's look at the next leader on what challenges john lee will need to address. >> hong kong has its next chief executive. but there is no surprise factor here. john lee was the sole candidate
to win beijing's backing. he began his career in the police force before rising to the ranks of local government. as security minister and then chief secretary, he was instrumental in enforcing national security law imposed by beijing following mass protests that disrupted the city in 2019. he also secured mainland support for building isolation facilities during the worst of the city's omicron outbreak. as hong kong's leader, lee says he will focus on restoring business confidence to safeguard the status as asia's financial hub, and he says that goes hand-in-hand with a clear covid-19 strategy. with its border effectively closed for the past two years, hong kong has seen an exodus of residents at ex-pats. john lee's challenge will be winning back the international business community's trust, while still showing little to -- showing loyalty to beijing and its covid-19 zero policy.
haidi: let's get you straight to hong kong where stephen engle is standing by with our next guest. stephen: thanks a lot. let's get right to our conversation now with bernard chan, convene or of the hong kong executive council, which of course is carrie lam's cabinet. the is also the chairman of asia financial holdings. so he is a businessman, also very much involved in politics, and has helped advise john lee. thank you so much for joining us. john lee has talked about this being a new chapter of stability for hong kong. how is it going to be different when, let's talk frankly here. he will be getting his marching orders from beijing as carrie lam did as well. how is the style, execution, and messaging going to be different? bernard: to start, john has served over 35 years in the police force in the last 10 years in the administration.
he clearly understands the working of the government. as you rightly point out we have unprecedented challenges. we need to connect to the mainland. we also need to connect to the world which right now -- i will not say shut. it is very challenging. but he will need to continue to do both. we have two major stakeholders and they have a different set of standards right now towards covid. and we need to make sure that we can achieve both at the same time. that is always the challenge for the chief executive under the so-called one country to systems. stephen: we will get to the security issues because he is going to be pushing forward with article 23, hong kong's own national security legislation which has been stalled since the protests in 2003. but i want to get to hong kong's competitiveness and openness.
by all accounts the border with mainland china is not going to be opening anytime soon. china has entrenched its zero covid policy. so is there a case to be made to open up more international travel? and there has been more momentum for home quarantine for arrivals. is that possible now given that top scientific advisors have told carrie lam's government that it is feasible? bernard: first of all, especially for international audience, when we hear china's so-called zero policy, from my understanding, they are not talking about absolute zero. it is really much about the methodology. we are still very much aligned with the mainland to curve -- curb the spread of the disease. i don't think anyone in hong kong is any hope to achieve zero. we did have zero for many months last year. but at this moment based on comments my medical experts, it
is not likely we're ever going to reach zero. it is not the zero we are trying to achieve but the methodology. let's go back to your question. as you rightly put it, after the fifth wave, i think before the fifth wave people might still think that we can try to align as much as we can with the mainland, or open up the border or relax it. but after the fifth wave, i think easily 20% to 25% of hong kong people have been infected with this virus. and they all recovered. and we are now better prepared to cope with any future surge of the virus again. that is why we see over the last couple months we have relaxed the measures we have been using over the last two years. i am not so sure we can further relax that.
we might still go onto the seven day for a while. regarding your question about home quarantine, we did try home quarantine early on two years ago but there were abuses and outcries from the community about those abuses. so until we can have a better way to make sure if we are going to shift to home quarantine, how can we be sure that people complied to the law. i am not so sure we can relax that so soon. but we are about to announce -- use the rapid test upon arrival rather than using pcr. we will still use pcr but we will let you wait in the hotel rather than waiting at the airport takes three to four hours. a little here and there we are going to improve to make it more reasonable, i would say. but those control measures are likely to remain for a little while. stephen: sounds like you are
pouring cold water on the momentum we have seen in talking about home quarantine. i just came back from the united states and i was tested 13 times, pcr tests and reffitt antigen test over the course of seven days. i think i was pretty much covered. as a businessman, what do you want to see? by all accounts hong kong is losing out to singapore and other regional financial centers. even japan is talking about loosening border patrols. the rest of the world is moving on. how concerned are you that hong kong has lost its competitiveness and will be hard-pressed to win that back? bernard: indeed. i have been on your show a few times and that is a question that keeps coming up again. we have seen these companies
moving their staff away from hong kong. because other countries have opened up so they could not afford to have executives stranded in hong kong. we saw that happening for the last couple of months. that is why i think the incoming chief executive is well aware of it. in his campaign in the last seven to eight weeks, many in the business community have already made that concern to him. he is completely aware of it. so he will be in that situation right now to try and negotiate with his mainland counterparts and how best we can achieve both the opening to the mainland as well as opening to the world. because we cannot afford to be locked out for too long. shery: as we watch what is happening in hong kong and john lee's background in law enforcement and what he has done so far, we cannot help but wonder as you mentioned how focused he is on reviving hong kong as a financial center and
also given his background, how much more force he will put into place in the city in order to reign in protests. bernard: well, obviously yes, he has a disciplinary forces background. but he is well aware that hong kong is a business city and the likelihood for the people is obviously top priority. so he is aware that he has not just access to the world but access to the mainland viewed many of the businesses in hong kong rely on the factories in china or the tourists from china. so he has a very daunting task to address both constituencies. even with his police background, he is aware that the future of hong kong as much about business. also of course the livelihood of the people. he has to also address the housing issues, the housing
shortages. in retaining talent is also a concern for him as well. shery: bernard chan, really good to have your thoughts. do join us again soon. coming up next, we are live in manila as voting for a new president gets underway in the philippines. analysts bracing for more uncertainty in the face of a possible marco's presidency. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: voting is underway in the philippines for an election that could to the only son of a late dictator ferdinand marcos take the presidency more than three decades after his father was ousted. let's bring in david ingles. what could the outcome of the vote today mean for markets? david: that is an interesting question. let me just rephrase that a little bit. what could elections mean for markets more so than the outcome itself? and obviously there are many other factors that are involved in markets. these past elections, only in 1998, and you're looking at nominal returns by the way -- has the benchmark actually underperformed. that was in and about the asian financial crisis.
let me summarize that the next six months, stocks in the philippines tend to outperform global peers after elections. there are many other factors involved in that. when it comes to economic policy, marcos junior is leading the polls, there is a lot of uncertainty around what he plans to do with the economy and as it pertains to that. there is very little from his campaign rallies that he has said specifically. what probably matters a little more right now is the inflation concern and what the central bank has said and signaled it might have to do against the backdrop of rising inflation. we might get some peso weakness on the back of the uncertainty but certainly with higher rates in the philippines could lead to support for the currency. shery: which is down about 3% this year. let's not cross over to manila where haslinda amin is standing
by with our next guest. haslinda: this election has been defined by disinformation. putting in question how democracy will look like after this election. let's put it to professor of political sociology at the university. good too happy you with us. the fact that there has been a lot of disinformation makes you realize that there has been no regulatory oversight. what does this mean for democracy in the country? guest: i think the world is watching. not just because they are curious to know what happens, when strongmen's children take power, but we want to know to what extent platforms like tiktok and youtube can change the landscape of elections. and so far regulation in the philippines has been very relaxed. that is why has been a labyrinth of disinformation tactics which can be imported to other parts of the world. haslinda: how do we begin to
understand the acceptance of marcos junior to the people here? the only son of a president who pretty much because a ruin to the country. nicole: it is easy to blame tiktok and the gen z's who watch tiktok because a lot of marcos junior voters are from the 18 to 24-year-old group. but if we look at this historically, they have been engaged in revisionism even since 1986. there are long seated myths about where the wealth is from. they say it is from gold, treasure, which basically tiles filipinos their loot -- their wealth is not from loot and plunder but from these myths. and that is hard to debunk because this is a line that has been told for decades. haidi: you called this the palatable face of authoritarianism. what is the most effective strategy to address that.
we have seen difficulties when it comes to fact checking and disinformation. the fact that they have not been able to work with the electoral commission, for example. there are a lot of challenges. nicole: there are definitely a lot of challenges. but we also see a lot of pushback. for people who are observing the campaign of vice president leni robredo, we are seeing a new generation of filipinos are also very clever in pushing back on the streets and in social media. so i think we can start monitoring these creative strategies as well of using tiktok and youtube to also counter this disinformation in a creative rather than objective ways that fact-checks offer. shery: we are hearing that the -- she's a very controversial figure, with the billions of dollars taken and stolen away from the philippines. what happens to those two dozen lawsuits ongoing if marcos
junior actually takes the presidency? nicole: one of the major concerns is what will happen to the presidential commission on good governance. the government agency tasked to recover gotten wealth. he will extend the mandate to go after all corrupt politicians, but what happens to the marcos wealth? that is up in the air. that is why we have to monitor this because it may signal impunity not only to the marcos family, but to all politicians who have cases of corruption and plunder languishing in courts. haslinda: we know that they undermined democracy and some say marcos junior will push it over the edge. nicole: the other component is dutere's daughter is running for vice president in tandem with marcos junior. we worry is you are not going to be worried about impunity when it comes to ill-gotten wealth. we are also worried about impunity associated with rodrigo
duterte himself because of his murderous war on drugs. the international criminal court already said there is reasonable basis to think there are crimes against humanity committed in relation to the drug war. but to what extent will the domain cooperate? that is up in the air. they might not cooperate because it involves the father of the potential vice president. haslinda: thank you very much for that reality check. we have a nation of 109 million people. 65 registered voters. one of the biggest democracies in asia after india. it has wide-ranging implications, what happens here. haidi: huge political, economic, and social ramifications. we have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
haidi: a check on the latest headlines. rogers communications says canada's antitrust agency is opposing it $16 billion takeover arrival, raising doubts that when the nation's biggest ever deals will close. sources say rogers wants to settle the issue out-of-court and is willing to sell assets to resolve the concerns. the companies are extending the deadline for a merger until the end of july.
a group led by a former guggenheim partners president has agreed to buy a chelsea football club for around $5.2 billion. this ends the russian billionaire's 19 year 10-year, and -- 19-year tenure. the price is one of the highest ever for a professional sports team, and follows a bidding war that went on for almost two months. shery: we continue to see the downside pressure on u.s. futures, down 1.3%, which is kind of rare for this time of day in early asian trading. this after the s&p 500 saw five weeks of losses, the longest losing streak since june of 2011. treasuries a little mixed at the moment. we had yields rising across maturities but at the moment you're seeing them a little mixed with the 10 year yield still trading above 3%. coming up, pepperstone group says china is to step up aussie support and have more transparent lockdown policies if
david: good monday morning from hong kong. welcome to the china open. yvonne: our top stories, johnny's premier league warning of a complicated and grave situation as beijing and shanghai titan covid-related restrictions. oil prices decline with investors weighing saudi price cuts against a g7 pledge to ban imports of russian oil. in a rubber