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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  May 9, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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the countdown to the close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: 30 minutes to the close. it does not look pretty in europe. european equities down hard. miners are down. you saw what happened overnight with copper and iron ore. luxury stocks down ready hard as well. lvmh, 52 week low on that stock. the euro at one point was bid, but is now back down. the dollar, strength to strength. what is interesting is in the bond market, the safety trade is
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into bunds. that's logical. it is not into btp's. the italian 10 year now 3.15. feels very similar to the number we are seeing in the united states, but you want to pay attention to how wide that spread gets. the ecb will be looking at that one very closely. but it is ugly and equities on both sides of the atlantic. alix: ugly here as well. nasdaq 100 now up by a full 3%. we want to get to bloomberg's kriti gupta with those moves. kriti: guy just stole all of my thunder, but that's ok. i'm going to start with the nasdaq, down 3.3%. this is really important when we are talking about what is getting hit the hardest. the stocks that took you to those record highs are the ones taking you to some pretty scary lows. take a look at what is actually performing well. similar to the conversation guy just had in terms of those bunds, treasuries get a bit of a bid, not enough to offset those major 16, 17 basis point moves
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we have seen. but still, four basis points lower on the 10 year yield. bloomberg's dollar index is really where all the action is. this was weighted very heavily towards the euro. when you start to see the dollar strength or euro weakness, here is where it shows up. 0.4%. remember, that feeds back into the stock story as you have a stronger dollar that really disincentivizes foreign investors from getting into the market. we are down on most 5%. for some context, how much crude was down during the trade war, same kind of margins. so you are seeing growth fears show up in that commodity. guy: plenty of thunder between us, i think. thank you very much, indeed. craig up to on what is happening with these kriti gupta on what is happening with these markets -- kriti gupta on what is happening with these markets. let's turn to geopolitics because that is still front and center. vladimir putin says russian
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troops in ukraine are fighting to ensure that there will not be a repeat of a global conflict but the second world war. meanwhile, the united states says it's sanctions have degraded the russian war effort. we spoke to the deputy treasury secretary a little earlier. >> today, because the actions the office has taken, the two top tank makers and russia are not functioning because they cannot get access to the goods and services they need to do the work they are doing. yesterday we sanctioned some of their top military companies as well. guy: let's get some analysis on all of this. where are we in this conflict? where are we going? in what condition a russian forces? joining us is sean bell, retired from the royal air force. he was an air vice marshal in the royal air force. he knows what he's talking about when it comes to these sort of
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stories. let's talk a little bit about what you saw in russia today. we did not get a declaration of war. we got a much more subdued than anticipated vladimir putin. what do you read into all of that? sean: the west was expecting a great deal from these elevations. putin himself, this was not an annual event for russia up until 2008, when he made it an annual event. he made it about russian pride and about putin. i think most of the west were expecting him to make some significant statement either expanding the war effort, expending the mobilization of his forces, but in fact, although he did not refer to the conflict, he said that military action in ukraine was forced by the actions of western policy, and he drew parallels with the second world war, with the russian offensive against the nazis and their success. but bluntly, i think most
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western analysts believe russia has got itself in a bit of a corner here. their regular army is gradually grinding to a halt. they've had some successes, but is meeting amazing resistance. of course, once that initial surge of russian effort grinds to a halt, the ukrainians will take a deep breath and they will be starting to push them out. that is where i think this whole war might take a new twist soon. alix: to that point, do you see any signs today of russian military capabilities that may have been different than you thought or may be different than the west had thought? sean: that's a great question. i think part of the challenge is that putin and a lot of the autocratic regimes have massive military parades showing off their hardware. it is a symbolism of their might. the trouble is the russian war machine has not actually work very well on the battlefield. they do have lots of very capable equipment, but what has been pretty evident is that not
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all of it is serviceable, and it has also shown the critical importance of having well-trained personnel. russia's army may be large, may be numerous, but having a conscript army that is not professional has not served russia well. it is written with corruption, -- it is riddled with corruption, which means they are resulting to second world war tactics of carpet bombing, leveling cities with apparent disregard for civilian lives in the infrastructure. i think that is in stark contrast with the way the west in recent times has prosecuted campaigns using precision strikes and adherence to the rule of law. guy: can i just come back to what you said in the first answer? are we now at the point where this war is turning? vladimir putin does not call it a war. he calls it a special operation. but i am sure the ukrainians
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call it a war. do you think there's the capability for the ukrainians to win? and what does winning look like? sean: well, let's take the second one last. the ukrainians i speak to on a regular basis, they believe that the russians lack morale, they lack leadership, they lack equipment, and they lack motivation, and they are losing an incredible amount of equipment and people on the battlefield. the ukrainians are fighting for their land, so they are particularly well motivated, incredibly courageous as we are seeing around mariupol. what we can't tell yet is how much deeper russia will dig into its reserves both in materiel, people, and equipment to keep plowing into this conflict. i think the question of how it ends is a fascinating one. it's of western analysts believe that sort of belt of land from russia down to crimea, crimea is really important for russia.
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for hundreds of years, it has been the one link to the prosperity that 90% of the world's trade goes through. they are not going to give up sebastopol in a hurry. but if they can get that, most western analysts believe putin could spin that as a success. the challenge is, if you were volodymyr zelenskyy, how on earth would you negotiate at that point? because putin has said regularly that he would not invade ukraine, yet twice in the last eight years, he has done so. therefore, even if he is stuck at the moment and negotiated a peaceful outcome and for some reason ukraine agreed to cede some territory, how would zielinski ever be confident that putin would not do exactly the same thing -- how would
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zelenskyy be confident that putin would not do exact with the same thing again? so they may start to turn the tide of this war and push russia back. guy: we are going to try to get an answer to that question. thank you very much, indeed, sean bell, advisor to universal defense and security solutions. a great pleasure. let's try and get an answer to that question. bloomberg's maria tadeo joins us now with ihor zhovkva, advisor to the ukrainian president. maria: we are joined by ihor zhovkva, the lead diplomat advisor to president zelenskyy. i know president zelenskyy has said this is not just russia's victory, that the ukrainians also fought very hard to defeat the nazis. but if you look at that speech from vladimir putin, he did not declare war in ukraine. there is no full mobilization. how do you interpret that?
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is it de-escalation, or just the fact that this war is not going well for russia, and they cannot declare full war because they are not able to do it on the ground? ihor: you're right to mention that ukraine also but is baited in world war ii, and this is also a ukrainian victory. ukrainians know how to fight their wars. you know, it is useless to probably analyze the war. that is why if you ask me whether this is de-escalation, no, because we see the intensive attacks in the donbass, intensive attacks in the south. we see bombing of ukrainian cities and towns. so it is far away from what you call de-escalation. maria: when i looked at that speech today, which of course,
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you say it is propaganda, and this is just for the russian domestic audience, when i look at what president volodymyr putin -- president vladimir putin said, he mentioned donbass but did not use the word ukraine at all. how do you read that? is it perhaps that this is just now about donbass? where does that take the peace talks between ukraine and russia? ihor: well, we also know that the war in ukraine has not been mentioned a single time, but that does not mean that president putin has forgot about ukraine. the existence of ukraine as an independent state is some thing which irritates him. but we remember the official statements in the second phase of the so-called special operation, where he repeated the
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words his generals were saying. it is hard to guess what was the deeper meaning. as far as the peace talks are concerned, nothing heard today from him, yes, but the position of ukraine, we did not exclude ourselves from peace negotiations. it is hard now to be in peace negotiations with officials from a country which make such atrocities in the war, but you heard my president several times, he said the need should be to have these negotiations, so my president is ready for these negotiations. unfortunately, we see no readiness from president putin himself to be part of these negotiations. maria: when vladimir putin says this was almost inevitable, and i've also heard repeatedly from a number of ukrainians that you almost feel this war was needed for the rebirth of ukraine as an independent nation, when you look at this, is the war at this
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stage not just military, but also an existential question at this point for you? ihor: no, we did not want war. we would never think of causing the war, like he said today was the plan. definitely, ukraine was never for war. there are many other instruments to help the rebirth of the nation. the war started in 2014 with the occupation of donbass and occupation of crimea. so that is why we are waging this war. it is a noble war which started on separate 24th this year. but we will fight this war. we will definitely win the war. and we will give additional ukrainian nation to ukrainian
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economy. guy: to your point, the u.s. is briefing right now. russia still making little progress on the ground in ukraine. we just spoke to a military specialist who feels that a turning point could be very close in this conflict. how close to that turning point are you where you start to push the russians out of ukraine? ihor: very close. right you are. they have stopped trying to make advances in the donbass, and some parts of southern ukraine, but those advances are very little. sometimes they make advances and immediately, the territories are taken back by ukrainian forces. the turning point is very close. what we need is weapons which would help us to win on the field, not only in donbass and seven ukraine, but the whole war. that is why those days and weeks
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ahead will be very critical. we hope the support of our western allies in providing us the weapons which we need, every ally knows the concrete needs of ukraine, so that is why we will be very close to a turning point. guy: one final quick question from here in london. we were listening to the deputy treasury secretary speaking a little bit earlier in the united states, and he was talking about this idea that the u.s. has a twin objective here. it wants to provide weapons so that the ukrainians can force the russians out, but it also wants to degrade russian military gave ability to the point at which russia kindle longer pose a threat to others. do you worry that ukraine is being used for that second purpose? ihor: well, we are defending our territory. this is the utmost goal for ukraine. we cannot act in a the -- in any
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other possible weight we have to defend our territory. the countries can help us by supplying the weapons, by introducing sanctions, and that is probably what you are also talking about because introducing sanctions and depriving the russian economy and military industry complex from their assets, from their ability to provide more weapons, more ballistic missiles, more fighter jets, to fight against ukraine is not just against ukraine because it will not to stop them in ukraine. once again, ukraine is ready to take this burden because we are in the forefront of this aggressor. but we will definitely win together. guy: ihor zhovkva, thank you for updating us. we appreciate your time once again. ihor zhovkva, advisor to ukraine
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president zelenskyy, and our thanks to maria tadeo for bringing us that interview. thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the consensus for the growth this year and next year was quite high, and when i am discounting the impact of the war in ukraine, i have still positive figures on the year this year and next year. that is the reason why i have a baseline scenario which is not a recessionary scenario. guy: that was the former ecb president john claude trichet
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speaking to us late last week. the latest mliv survey here at bloomberg asked market but does bins which risk they are more concerned about, recession, stagflation, and it ended with a 40% tie on each. silvia dall'angelo, senior economist at federated hermes, joining us now. how high is the risk of a recession, of stagflation? how should you thing about investing in this space? silvia: first of all, stagflation is a bit of a vague concept of low growth and high inflation. but from a technical point of view, what are the thresholds for growth reflation and how long such a period is to last that can be defined as stagflationary. i would say they do not
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necessarily rule each other out. in coming quarters, we might see something that was a most a stagflationary episode with lower growth rates and inflation at limited levels. but likewise, that might evolve eventually in a more negative picture for growth, given all of for the consumer, but also external stress with external develop ensign the war in ukraine. alix: it seems like the path of least resistance is a hike from the ecb. the over not swaps market is looking at about 90 basis point of tightening this year. what breaks when that happens? silvia: at the moment, the ecb monetary setting is a credibly -- is incredibly commodity of -- is incredibly accommodative. the depot rate is still deep into negative territory, which
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is probably counterproductive given that in the current context of high commodity prices like a weak currency, it is a worse picture for ukraine and for growth down the line. so while the ecb will clearly move to first steps to normalize its monetary policy, recently also most governing council numbers have suggested july for lift off, and then they expect the depot rate to be in slightly positive territory by the end of this year. so i think that is the easy big -- the ecb baseline scenario. but of course, things can go wrong around the baseline scenario, and outsides to growth could come from the war in ukraine. guy: what happens later this year as we go into next year?
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we are going to be effectively at the ecb hiking into weakness. how far do they need to go? where do you think neutral is in europe? do they need to go that far? give us a sense of the extent of the tightening we are likely to see. do you just get back to zero and stop there? what do you think the parameters look like? silvia: that is a million-dollar dollar question, given there's higher certainties around the underlying parameters of the economy as we exit the pandemic. i say the euro zone economy is probably in better shape structurally compared to the pre-pandemic scenario, given that there has been a significant amount of stimulus, but more structural fiscal stimulus and spread out over time should improve the potential of the economy over time. of course, implementation is key.
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but i think the near-term rate is probably about higher, but nowhere near the levels of the past, so we are probably looking around for percent. -- looking at something around 4%. guy: that is interesting. thank you very much, indeed. a bit of breaking news on goldman sachs. it is effectively pulling out of most spac's over the threat of liability. the sec put new rules in which significantly increase for sponsors the risk there. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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guy: it is going to be an ugly close in europe. we will break it down. the close is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: a tough way to start the week for european equities --
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all equities. u.s. equities are not having the greatest day. this is the picture in europe. bright red across the markets. the ftse down 2.2%. we are near session lows. let me show you that session. this is what the stoxx 600 looks like. it goes from this side to this side and the line is down. usually during the day we get periods where european markets are going sideways. other assets, at one point we had a positive euro against the dollar. that is no longer the case. we are down .2%. people are talking about 103. what is interesting is the money flowing into bunds. the spread widening. we are at 204 in terms of basis points. 3.13% on an italian 10 year.
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and then we come to the metals. it was ugly. you saw what happened in asia out of iron ore. copper not immune to this, down 2.6%. timing is everything. we'll have more the middle story in just a moment. -- more on the metal story in just a moment. u.k., travel and leisure is down aggressively. in the heavyweight areas, technology is down. the real heavyweight areas are the metals and the energy space. energy down for percent. basic resources down 3.9%. that is where the ugliness sits. let me take you inside some of those numbers. china is the big story.
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lvmh hitting two we close. -- hitting two week lows. down 3.22%. right move is an outlier. a change of management today. keep an eye on the u.k. housing market after the warning late last week from the governor of the bank of england. then back to the commodity space. rio tinto down 4%, we have moved on. down circa 4.5%. metals under pressure. alix: the whole commodity complex under pressure. i want to welcome bloomberg's eddie van der walt. what you think is leading commodities lower? there's lots to pick from. eddie: i want to welcome you back but i know you did that at the top of the show. alix: i will take it.
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eddie: excited you are back. copper and iron or will be weighed on by the bad news out of china. i think the global growth story is as much of a problem for the metals at the moment. people are getting nervous. we did a survey on markets live where we asked people what are they worried about in europe? respondents said recession or stagflation. people are worried about growth in europe and across the board. guy: are commodities leading the rates market and are the rates market leading the equities market? eddie: if commodity prices are in charge we are in for an easy ride. that makes the policymakers jobs easier. if inflation is being driven by the jobs market than it is a lot harder because they would have to take the sting out of the
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jobs market. break the economy in order to bring inflation back down. if it is about commodities i think we are past that point in time. alix: everything is always about commodities, let's be clear. bold -- gold down 1%. the conversation of is gold an inflation hedge, is it a safety trade has not gone away. what is your call on that? eddie: i am quite bearish on gold. gold struggles in a rising yield environment. it does not pay you any yields. you pay people money to keep it. as yields go up it becomes more attractive to put your money in yielding assets. i think that is where people are going. as long as yields keep rising gold will be under pressure. it is about the real yield.
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guy: let's talk about bitcoin. 32,190. very key levels. a potential breakdown. if we break down 330 200 you can see quite a few gaps opening up below that. eddie: we have learned something this year, that bitcoin is not a haven, it is not an inflation hedge, it is not virtual gold. what it is is a leveraged play on the nasdaq. i think a lot will depend on what the nasdaq does from here that depends on rates. guy: the nasdaq is having a pretty ugly day. alix: keep -- guy: keep watching to see whether the s&p is breaking 4000. we are getting close. we are nearly through the auction in the u.k..
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we just went lower through the auction process. definitely session lows across europe. the ftse 100 down 2.15. nearly 3% for the cac 40 in paris. the s&p is at 4012. i think we got up to 4000 for a few minutes ago. we will continue our coverage later on the cable show taking to the air at 5:00 in london, 12:00 in new york. dab digital radio for all of your bloomberg devices and thanks to alix steel you can catch the podcast on spotify. alix: i will not leave you alone anymore. this is exciting. i left you for 15 weeks. coming up we will talk about commodities and take a shipping
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vessel approach. european union talks about a proposed band of -- we will talk about what does demand really look like, particular from china with the ceo of the antwerp port authority. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is the european close. you're lucky to live shot of the principal room. coming up terri spath, senior wealth manager at nci joining bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin invoking russia's fight against nazi germany as he defended his faltering invasion of ukraine. he said the russian military is defending "what our fathers, grandfathers, and great grandfathers fought for." the parade marks the german
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defeat in 1945. an advisor to president zelenskyy responded, saying the russian army is dying not defending their country but trying to occupy another. in the philippines the son of the late dictator ferdinand marcos is heading for victory in the election. he had won almost 60% of the vote. his closest rival got 20%. he grew on the support of voters comfortable the strongman rule of the outgoing president. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: the eu will drop a proposed band on vessels transporting russian oil to their countries. what remains is a plan to prohibit ensuring those shipments. how hard does this make it from moscow to shift oil overseas?
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clearly an outright ban is one thing. talk about what is still on the table. alex: the insurance side is on the table and that is something that has been used in the past to hobble nations. difficult to sell oil cargo without insurance for a ship because the risk is if you have an oil spill there'll be no cover to pay off the damage. that is why charter is going to book a ship without cover. insurance seems to be the biggest obstacle. the question is at what level this will take place to resolve delivery, whether russia has to get into delivery its hodgepodge of logistical issues. guy: you walk us through how these discussions are taking place? it seems it is two steps forward
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and one step back when it comes to sanctions. this is a very aggressive package and is being watered down. i understand why the greeks are concerned about this with their big tanker fleet. i'm not sure whether they have won anything significant. why push for a change in the rules regarding how companies can transport crude but leave on the table this insurance cap yacht which effectively -- this insurance caveat which essentially nullifies the whole thing? alex: -- sanctions mirror the political standing we have seen in the early stages of the war. a unified european front. once you get into the nitty-gritty, the greeks have a large tanker fleet. they are raising their objections. that is the back of objections last week from hungary,
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slovakia, the czech republic, all landlocked states with limited replacement capacity for russian crude. the pipeline flows from russia into those country with relatively small replacement pipeline from the adriatic. that was the catalyst for the pushback. we have seen the change over the weekend as greece has stated's its objections. what will become clear is when new paths for delivery come out, when new buyers emerge, then potentially logistic companies get clear or do not get involved. at the moment it is not clear who the buyers will be and therefore it is not known whether the ships will be required to take them to china, for example. guy: bloomberg's alex longley on
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the latest circumstances of where the sanctions will impact. sanctions just one of the issues facing the world's big ports, another is the covid lockdown in china. joining us in jacques vandermeiren, ceo of the antwerp port authority. the second largest port in europe. thank you for your time. how much clarity do you have in what you can and cannot do when it comes to russian goods, russian oil, dealing with ships that have come from russia. how hard are the rules to navigate? jacques: they are quite clear for the time being. the european commission is quite transparent in sanctions and when they will apply and where. we are not suffering from lack of clarity and for the time being it is quite reasonable what the impact, because it
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means energy goods like oil and gas are still not under a ban. what it has impacted for the time being is steel and that is for the port being the biggest steel of europe is an issue. the russian quota has been replaced immediately, overnight, by south korean steel. we do not see a switch in volumes. we see steel is coming in from another destination, and one that will impact other european -- that will apply in a few months. alix: if you can dust off a crystal ball, as contracts for oil and natural gas between russia and the west rolloff, how do you anticipate energy volumes being shifted around the world? jacques: that is a big concern.
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clarity in the sanctions on oil and gas, what was the idea of the european commission is to have that decision today or this week on those energy products, but will most probably not happen in the short term. all of the lawyers are looking at the alternatives and it is not easy to find overnight those kinds of volumes. we host the biggest petrochemical cluster of europe and the second largest in the world after houston. we consume oil in the port, 30 million tons of oil every year. finding an alternative is not easy and will be more expensive than russian oil. the main question is will would
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be able to find those volumes in the short term. that is why the european commission is still a bit reluctant in confirming a complete balance. guy: q1 container traffic was down 11.6%. we continue to see the lockdowns in shanghai and beijing were enhanced over the weekend. sing of get restrictions in china. how long do you think this will last? is this something will have to live with for the rest of this year? jacques: most probably. unfortunately we experienced these kind of lockdowns last year due to a few lockdowns in shanghai but also other huge chinese ports. when like to date you have more than 500 ships that are waiting in front of the port of shanghai
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or blocked in the port, it will have consequences in the coming weeks, and probably until the end of the year, like it was the case last year. we will have seven or eight days or in the united states on the west coast, but also in europe for two or three days. for ports it is a nightmare because we went from a supply chain that is well organized and predictable and well-managed, and when something like that happens in the world, especially in the biggest port in the world, shanghai, you can expect lots of issues, an increase of prices come of containers, but also waiting times for goods in export and import. alix: really great and valuable
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perspective. i would love to get you back as this continues. shop vendor maren, antwerp -- shocks vendor maren, -- jacques vendermeiren, antwerp ports ceo. this is bloomberg's. ♪
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alix: markets bouncing off their lows but still a brutal day. kriti gupta is tracking the latest stocks. kriti: a risk update, little bit of a bounce back, but still down 3.2%. you are seeing volatility in the bond market. at 12 basis point move down in the two year yield. how much of the treasury yield is affecting stocks as opposed to a risk off mode? i also have to mention ny crude or nymex crude, down 5%. this is the margin it fell
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during the trade war. these growth concerns in china almost wavering the entire commodity market. guy: amazing to see what is happening. cross as at risk running through the markets. goldman sachs says it is pulling out of working with most acts. goldman was the second biggest underwriter of spac's last year. joining us to talk about the impact this move by goldman is having, let's bring in sonali basak. this is a reaction to the fec move last month. what does it mean in practical terms? sonali: this is the second bank to make such big moves. we heard citigroup saying they would pause these back issuance. sources telling goldman that goldman would only work with select spac's, finding a merger target so that spac can take the
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company into public markets easier. you also have this slew of spac's a lot of questions are surrounding. do you have is the good daesch and -- do you have this liquidation -- alix: blood banks are still in the business that can pickup slack? sonali: one question is around cantor fitzgerald. they were one of the biggest underwriters and hiring for spac's. this was supposed to be the new model of taking companies public. with the sec rules the worry is around forward guidance as well as conflict of interest. will the rules change? will there be repercussions around the disclosures? guy: what are the revenue implications? sonali: i just gotten back from milkin where spac sponsors were roaming free and looking for
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deals. you have had sponsors conceding they have lost money. you have costs associated with having lost the spac and not be able to fulfill that deal. there are a lot of investors who have been doing a lot of spac arbitrage. do investors get their money back quickly? there is some money to be made in the interim as the spac market starts to shake itself out. alix: desai from the spac market, i feel like this is all part of big banks de-risking in general. the moves, -- must be sky high. sonali: great question because the bar is up significantly. the other thing people are talking about is our people borrowing too much money and taking on too much risk? how much leverage is there two out of the system? we are hearing from a lot of big banks. the margin loans they are providing as well as the big asset management businesses, where can they take some risk
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off the table? guy: great stuff. thank you for jumping into update us. coming up, douglas holtz-eakin is going to be joining us in "balance of power," american action former president. he is joining david westin on the show coming up on bloomberg television and radio. alix and i have a fantastic cable show to go. will be joining you on bloomberg dab digital radio in the london area at the top of the hour. you can also find us on all of your bloomberg devices in the podcast will be available later. the s&p trading 4031. it is off the lows. where does it closed today? great to have alix back. hope you enjoy the show. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the world of politics -- >> this is good news for the american people. another strong jobs report.
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we have seen 8.3 million jobs added in the u.s. economy. >> to the world of business. >> secretary granholm told producers, please produce more oil, the rest of the world is looking for it. >> this is "balance of power" with david westin. david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." we start this week where we left off last week. that is concerned about inflation. we will have the cpi numbers on wednesday and president biden says he would like to talk to us about it on tuesday. to explain all of this we turn to joe mathieu, host of sound on weekdays on bloomberg radio. is it because the president thinks the numbers will be good anyone's credit or does he think they will be bad and he wants to explain them? joe:


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