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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  May 9, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> a very good morning, welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." we are counting down to asia's market -- major market open. the top stories this hour. >> u.s. stocks sank to a 13 month low on the concerns that the fed will struggle to balance the inflation and then session -- recession risks. >> there is no need for federal
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banks to move faster than the half-point hike, to ease price pressures. >> reporting live from, where they may be set for a deeper drop, a market poised for a landslide residential election victory. >> the picture across wall street reduce the u.s. futures bouncing back a little bit 0.3% after the s&p 500 alta the lowest level since march of 2021. we continue to see the uncertainty as we have a fed survey from the bank of new york coming out saying that the longer term inflation expectations were rising that complicates the outlook for the federal reserve. not surprising we have a lot of uncertainty out there. the index hiking to a two month high when treasuries rally the three year yield staying above that we percent level. with that -- 3% level.
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with a negative feedback loop we have the weakening pressure. and continues to weaken in the asian session, 0.3%. all of business being felt across assets, we talking about cryptocurrencies really the downside pressures. in the asian session is slightly higher and rebounding, you're talking about bitcoin being below that $31,000 level falling for six consecutive sessions already. either falling 11%, you can see solano right there plunging 21%. after that peak in november, what is this massive decline of more than 50% since the november peak? even michael coming out saying that things could get worse before they could better -- get better. >> things get worse in the asian session we are seeing a quite a lot of this -- risk of
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sentiment, taking a look at australian futures we see a big drop here, .4 percent, the lowest since march 8. we also saw that big drop when it comes to commodities and risk related currencies, the aussie dollars dropping to a 22 month low, 120%, the following -- 1.2%. the volatility is also rising when it comes to some of these dollar aussie painting -- pairings. kiwi shares are down 0.9%, the kiwi dollar also dropping to percent in the overnight session. dollar-yen also on drop. is 3% away from the weakest level we have seen this entry. -- century. >> you can see the sentiment
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excited he is palpable -- sentiment anxiety is palpable, the only risk acceptable is cash. blackrock's holding their cash with both hands because in a normal environment you have cap stocks and bonds shipping out of stocks into bonds and cash. right now you're getting all those funds out of stocks and bonds. that is leading to that huge spike in a demand for cash as well. >> what is looking to be very rate sensitive, similar optimistic it investors they had been hoping for, just a few months ago we were looking at the potential recovery when it comes to the likes of kathy woods flagship fund, bitcoins, cryptocurrencies, high-growth, high-risk, high reward names are continuing to be pummeled. these pandemic euro darlings, --
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you're a darlings are the new symbols. , these public companies that were potentially to outperform bitcoin prices falling along with the overall market sentiment. >> what a u-turn when it comes to the overall market narrative, without some of these stocks would be spared the selloff, let's get a analysis of the market moves. also our economics editor. we are seeing u.s. stocks close to bear market, down 17% since the december pretty? -- peak? bank of america saying that if we get there we could file for 3000 levels of the s&p 500, we could fall there for the s&p 500. is there anything that could turn this around? >> what we are seeing is a very broad selloff, it is not only u.s. equities, commodities,
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commodity producers, all of the risk assets, bitcoins, what it shows that investors are losing faith in the fed's ability to tame inflation, couple that with the supply chain disruptions of the content -- persisting because of the war in ukraine and the china lockdown. it is not only investors is also consumers, they are not convinced the fed can tame inflation a survey showing the prices in three years they see them higher than a month ago. they are starting to look and lean into these negative sentiments. they are looking at signs of a slowdown in earnings season, for example bank of america saying, weak demand measures have jumped this earnings season. they are looking at things like traffic to stores flagging or delayed orders normally see a slowdown. they see this negative sentiment
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out there. >> 50 basis points was almost a compromise, the goldilocks,, we spoke to a lot of people that said the fed should not have taken 75 off the table. >> he certainly is not, with an interview in uber television, at the financial stability -- bloomberg television at the financial stability conference, he thinks 50 basis points at a time is aggressive enough for right now. let's listen to exactly what the president of the atlanta fed said. >> 50 basis points, over the last 20 years, you know, is already pretty aggressive move. i do not think we need to be moving even more aggressively. i think we can stay at this pace , and see how the markets evolve. >> it is interesting, that later in the day, it was a big
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conference he spoke to reuters, when he is pushed he is not taking 75 basis points off the table, he wanted to do two or three 50 basis point hikes, see what it does, a lot of people are confident it will start peeking and coming back down. it is interesting, one of our chartmiesters put together in london earlier today, the s&p 500 -- the white line -- it is the redline come easy to trading days in a row where the rate hike expectations came back in, as much as a 19 basis point reduction in the amount of reduction -- points this year. is having a low bit of an impact, not enough that the fed will do as -- not enough that people are convinced that the fed will do what it takes, cpi
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wednesday will make people wonder, is pretty tough. >> no wonder we are seeing the flight to safety with the dollar strength continuing. what is the outlook? >> that is right, what we are seeing is a collapsing risk off move. where do the investors go? the safest place, the dollar. some things do not change, that is the strength of the dollar during the times of market turbulence. investors are saying it will likely to continue, kathleen mentioned inflation, we see that peak, that could tip it over and turn the dollar around. i think it is too early to say. for the time being and looks that investors are flocking to the safest asset and that is the dollar. what we are seeing, as we are seeing weakness in the commodity currencies like the australian dollar because of the lockdowns
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in china as well as emergency -- emerging currencies. >> so much pressure when it comes to emerging currencies, what do we see as a strategy with the rbis? the reserve bank of into the -- india despite the surprise hike, the rupee getting hit, today they are coming in intervening in the foreign exchange market they have pretty reserve -- pretty big reserves at this moment. in fact a person familiar said they are ready to do more after they saw the currency drop as much as 0.8% against the dollar in a single trading session that is an unprecedented mood -- move. it is a very high level for the currency. it is clearly, people are saying we have a strong economy, strong exports, this not reflecting fundamentals. as you may recall a lot of
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exports -- experts have been warning about the potential impact of an aggressive federal reserve tightening on emerging markets. two weeks ago they put out their outlooks, one of the biggest dangers with an aggressive central bank tightening, happens to emerging markets? a lot of money is gone because they can get that a returns. you see capital flagging and bond yields revising. this is something india's taking early steps now to make sure it does not get out of hand, but who knows. >> who knows, i think that is the key phrase at the moment. . . thank you. let's get you over the vonnie quinn with the first were look -- with the first look at like. >> boys for a landslide victory the philippines -- poised for a landslide victory in the philippines election, according
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to the official results, he leads with over 50% of the total votes cast, doubled of tally for his closest opponent. sri lanka has prime minister has resigned in the wake of protests over the plunging economy. they have been demanding that him and his brother quit, price of everything from gasoline to medicine have been soaring. president vladimir putin has invoked russia's fight against nazi germany when talking about the invasion of ukraine, marking the german defeat in 1945, he made no major announcements in his speech despite speculation that he would warmly declare war, saying confrontation between the u.s. and nato is inevitable. >> they will not listen to us, in fact what happened, will have
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to look at different plans and be openly prepared, the operation in donbas and the invasion of historical lands including crimea. >> president volodymyr zelenskyy rejected the attempt to justify the invasion by invoking world war ii, he vows to drive the occupiers out of our land, his aide, spoke with bloomberg television earlier, saying that a turning point in the war is close it but there is a critical need for more weapons from the west. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. caroline: still ahead we will have more on prunes address, why the leader could be -- putin's address why he is signaling that the war could continue for a
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long time. these current -- a long-term opportunity for investors, more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> stagflation is toxic for traditional assets. >> equities by themselvesplace
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-- by themselves is not a safe space. >> there is no safe haven in this marketplace. >> is a big struggle for investors. >> liquidity is afraid the edges. >> is hard to get a handle on exactly what is going on. >> investors are looking for diversification. >> we are on the cusp of that. >> people want to play defense right here. >> people are negative. >> the reality is there is very low risk appetite. >> some of the earlier guest on bloomberg tv, let's bring in our next guest that said the market is getting oversold. ceo and cio, always good to have you with us, you are calling this a longer-term as a gathering market, what are you at -- gathering?
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>> i heard some of the intro points and it sounds doom and gloom. if you look at the market and you see these unpredictable swings. what is interesting is that we have had a couple of days now where more than 90% of the market has been down. we have had a couple of days where feels like there has been indiscriminate selling across-the-board. i think what you start to see signs like this, the fear and panic of investors, no one coming in and buying, with the backdrop of 70% of corporate earnings looking positive, strong consumer balance sheets, companies positioned well to perform and grow in deliver. earnings growth in a normal environment, the backdrop of still there. it is so hard to see the bottom, that i do think the dollar cost averaging in and nibbling on some of these quality names here
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is something that we look back on as an opportunity. >> what are some of those names? you look at some of the tech giants in the valuation seem to be an issue. >> absolutely, the frost has been taken out the top of these tech names, i will give you a few that i like. amazon google, microsoft, i like semi conductors, md and nvidia. -- amd and nvidia. these are at the cross-section of every technology, electric vehicles, eating to optimize factories for lack of workers, artificial intelligence, 5g, machine learning, cloud computing, these are real, tangible propositions that these companies are taking place. you look at names like amazon, consumers remain strong, though catch some wins find their sale -- winds behind their sales.
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investors will miss out on opportunities on these names. >> taking a look at just how much yield is higher at the moment, we have a situation where the dollar is so strong, the real rate is screaming so much higher, you are getting the liquidity effect. i am wondering how much stronger earnings is going to have to overcompensate to overcome the fear, the changing conditions will create further obstruction for this market. >> a great question also a great point. when you think about inflation getting about that hikes, the market has gotten a little bit ahead of it in terms of pricing in rate hikes. that there is a chance that they could be a surprise and upside. in terms of inflation it we will see what happens on wednesday. if we do not see that pullback or peak on wednesday's number of may we see it the next time, i
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think that some of these factors will help neutralize some of the volatility in the market. the drastic pullback of the market and allow the fed to take stock of everything happening and thing about, after those two or three 50 basis point hikes, if the need to go further. it will depend on the data. the top mega cap companies were talking about, allow the top s&p 500 names have struck -- such strong balance sheets, the real rate of where they are, it will not impact them. they will have slower a earnings growth, but it will not be an earnings growth halt. i do not think you will be a recession either. there are too many good factors in the market. a slowdown for sure, but i do not think we are recession bound yet. >> alternative asset classes like cryptocurrencies going to heat when it comes to what we see as a pullback in risk and
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the sentiment, you are still pretty positive on the underlying technology. is our way to get exposure to blockchain and start step some the volatility? >> there are a few ways investors can get access to the asset class. i think it is a long-term prospect. is getting beat up alongside tech, worse than tech, almost a leverage product or derivative. the leverage is can look at it, blockchain ecosystem, crypto related stocks, you can buy coin directly through coinbase. some of the products out there, grayscale and bitwise have some trust funds that can be invested in. there is a way to have a professional manager money through those after mentioned funds or you can do it for yourself in a digital wallet. >> always great to have you with us, and for your investment
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ideas, ceo and cio of defiance etf. you can get more stories in today's edition of daybreak, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> taking a look at the day ahead for new zealand now, expecting -- expecting to conclude a trade deal with new zealand, and chile by the end of 22 into after they have installed -- end of 2022. australia's quarterly retail sales are also do. . >> let's get a quick check of the latest business flash
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headlines, goldman sachs is pulling out of working with spac's. they will begin ending their involvement, bank of america has also scaled back with some spac following guidelines of the sec that would expose underwriters to greater liability risk. grindr the dating app for the lgbtq plus committee has agreed to go public with a link check deal -- blank check. the predominantly male dating app, the -- is not offering any investment or public equity in the deal. the $2.7 billion ipo of life insurance corporation, and the country's largest share field, -- a portion that bloomberg described as nearly three times
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with the end of betting. -- bidding. >> this take a look at u.s. futures out what was a -- after what was a terrible session. this is the setup going into the start of trading, s&p futures sitting up 3% -- 0.3% up. falling to the lowest in months, the s&p 500 down, all these concerns over the fed's ability to navigate inflation without causing a recession, the prolonged war in ukraine, the lockdown in the china economy. nasdaq futures of 0.3%, we have talked about how the pandemic arotech darlings -- you're a tech -- era tech darlings were hit i falling rate. dow futures are also up three tens also we see the headwind
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being caused by the strength of the rest all three tens of them but hasn't -- 0.3% higher. much more to come on "daybreak: australia ranall: --"daybreak: australia."
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>> in my lifetime, we just had equities and treasury. the biggest swing in today's ever. -- in two days ever. >> the best response here, we are only can a hike 250. they will make that claim until they see inflation expectations come down. we are a ways away from that. we are in for volatility and
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pain until placed -- inflation comes down. >> more volatility have the markets, the federal reserve bank of atlantis president saying 50 basis points is already a pretty aggressive move. speaking exclusively with bloomberg. >> the thing about our policy, the first thing that is on my inflation is too high. we need to act definitively and purposefully get that under control. if you look at what we have done, so far in the last two meetings, for me 50 basis points, over the last 20 years, you know this already, a pretty aggressive mood -- move. i do not think we need to be moving more aggressively. i think we can stay at this pace and cadence see how the markets evolve. my expectations and hope is that
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as we move closer to our neutral levels and fire away from our accommodative stance, we will see allow the tightness and tension in the economy moderate which will then give us options and choices with what we do after that point. >> how far do you go? where you think you will be at the end of the year and the and of 2023? >> that is a good question, i think we need to be getting somewhere into the neutral range, different people have different ideas about what that looks like. i am looking at somewhere between two and two and half percent as our neutral range. a lot of discussions about uncertainty, carpenter referenced he was good to be here and i was excited about that saying that there was a lot of volatility, a lot of stuff a play out, once we get to the neutral level it will be fine.
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in my view we will move a couple times, maybe two, maybe three times, see what happens, see how the economy responds, see if inflation continues to move close -- closer to the 2% target. then we will take a pause and look at how things are going. >> take a pause, does that mean move -- not move any meeting or do is this a rolling decision as you go along? >> for me all options are on the table every meeting. depending on how the economy is responding, could be the economy is responding well so we do not need to do anything. it could be that the economy is responding a little bit less strong so we are met with 25 basis points or we are at 50. i will keep my mind open, observe the economy, and then at dap my idea about what is appropriate -- adapt my idea of what appropriate policy looks like. >> many of your colleagues have
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said you will have to go beyond neutral to restrictive. if you have 4% inflation rate and a 3% funds rate you still have a negative yield -- real yield fed funds rate. why do you think you will not do that? >> my hope, a lot of the things that are out of control, like supply chain disruptions, will start to get to a better place. we will see how the labor market response. there was a story just last week about retirees coming back into the workplace. those are things that might relieve some of the tension and labor markets and allow producers to increase the supply of products that reduces the imbalance. all of this inflation is about an imbalance between high demand and low supply that is out there. if we see it moving up on the supply side, that means we'll push less on demand. that is a decision i'm hoping will come down, how fast?
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we will have to see. that will determine if we have to get into restrictive territory, if we do, how far. i am open to that, i will say, we have done surveys throughout the entire pandemic. each one has come with predictions that turned out not to be the case. i will try to be as humble as i can, be true and in the moment and not anticipate too far in advance because there is a lot of stuff that will happen. >> atlanta fed president raphael bostic geeking exclusively to bloomberg. we have the latest from marcus, the jp morgan strategist urging investors to lower their cash and also government debt exposure and by credit. markets have reached peak hawkish nist from central banks, the potential for more hawkish balls -- dovish policy suggest
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it is time to add risk. blackrock investment is abandoning its bullish view on chinese stocks, downgrading china from neutral. the says risks from the covid lockdown, the economy now outweigh any benefit from cheap valuations, paul's -- promises from policy intervention have still not fully materialized. >> the yuan being hit in the global -- for the dollar. this global dash is the supremacy of the dollar, does not seem to waning anytime soon. what are we seeing across the emerging-market complex? >> we think about the three global matcher -- global macro drivers, the war in ukraine and russia, the lockdown in china
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and inflation that is a global phenomena, mostly more acute in the u.s., if you think of which currency could take the burden, which country can take the burden of a strong currency, it is the u.s., because the -- europe is way down, china and asia in general have to struggle with covert inchoate policies. the -- with covid and covid policies. the fed is tight, it is an environment where you have to determine where rates in the federal reserve are. >> with the strong dollar, emerging target -- markets on their longest losing streak. what are the biggest losers in the situation? >> low interest rate currencies
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like japanese yen, and also external financing like the turkish lira, and some of the currencies that were previously overvalued and need to correct a low bit more. this is the case for the chinese yuan. the currency has been strengthening for two years, the recent correction wasn't little bit less public and cause crushed go further. >> you have a situation where there is already domestic uncertainty, and the dollar is just adding to those pressures. >> absolutely. what we see typically in emerging markets, currency -- currencies weakening heading into the election.
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we do not know what the candidates policy will affect. after the election there is more certainty, the currency can recover. the philippines, on top of that we do have a global financial market. >> bloomberg markets reporter with us on the latest currencies right now, being affected by the strong dollar. let's talk a low bit more about what is happening in the philippines, voting continues in the national election. he looks poised for a landslide victory, going back to the presidential palace 36 years after his dictator father left the country. >> if we are fortunate, i will expect that your help will not wane, your trust will not wane, have a lot of things to do anytime had. >> chief international correspondent, is there for us,
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what is the latest when it comes to the vote count right now? >> talk about a revival of a family that was sent packing 36 years ago. boarding a plane to the u.s. with fine jewelry, they are finally back in the philippines, if you take a look at the vote count, over 90% of the vote count so far implement a counting, by the way, he is secured more than 30 million votes, that is more than what was secured by his closest rival , and also bear in mind, he has secured more votes than present dutere, when it the -- one of the most popular presidents of the country. is the biggest margin since the 1980's, sense the wind by -- win
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on the back of the ouster. it is a huge margin. the question really is, what policies will he adopt? during his campaign he was vague on what would be implement it -- implemented. he will continue to adopt the policies, to ensure recovery from the pandemic to invest in infrastructure. what we also know is he will shield the former president with any investigation that will be conducted by the international criminal court. it essentially means that the culture of impunity may processed -- processed in the philippines. >> when it comes to the market reaction, what do we expect?
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we already know there is existing downside pressure on the philippine currency. >> we have seen earlier that the downward pressure had to do with uncertainty, also to do the hiring environment and the pressure from the chinese yuan. investors waiting to see what you can now policies you will put in place, perhaps some clarity in the days ahead, the upside is that growth is picking up, the imf said that the estimate for the year is six and half percent, which would be higher in southeast asia, the downside as with most countries is inflation, expected to be amongst the highest in all of asia. this is some of the challenges, we spoke to some of the investors, they say they are pretty upbeat. when you take four out of five elections, six month after the
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elections are done we see an upside in terms of philippine stocks. we have to wait and see, there will be more clarity on paul -- clarity on policies and will pave the way. >> our chief international correspondent for southeast asia on the ground, as part of our ongoing coverage of the presidential election, will be speaking to the ceo of the philippine national bank and the president of the philippine stock exchange, big interviews coming but -- up. president putin does not declare war in ukraine in his victory day speech. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i am vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. the federal reserve has warned that increasing liquidity across key financial markets, with tiny inflation, and a key report the risk of a sudden liquidity deterioration is higher than normal after the fallout in the war in ukraine.
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bloomberg it has said that india central bank -- after a record low on monday, the rbis targeting speculators worth six on the billing is prepared to do more -- worth $600 billion and is prepared to do more. g7 foreign minister has raised grave concern around the electoral process, the appointment of the new chief executive, is called in it -- a result -- an assault on the fundamental freedom. he will replace the incumbent chief executive july 1. queen elizabeth will not be attending the opening of the u.k. parliament, meaning that the 96-year-old will miss -- her son and heir prince charles will take her place at the podium for the first time, she is ruled for 70 years.
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global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> russian president vladimir putin has saw to cast military action as necessary to ward potential western aggression. it was victory day, when russia celebrates his defeat of nazi germany, he did not say where the current conflict in ukraine was added or declare a formal organism -- mobilization. what is interesting, about what putin did not say in the speech, i am curious, the invocation of nazi germany come of the scenes they -- themes that he touched on their, is that suggesting that they are digging their heels in and there is no pullback for russia on this? >> absolutely. it is such an important cultural touchstone in russia, the defeat of nazis and painting the
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craniums as being inheritors of nazi. putin made it clear that this was something he cannot and will not and the country of russia cannot back down from. he says that we will do whatever it takes to win. i do think by focusing on the donbas like he did is a much smaller set of objectives. and will no longer be regime change, the russians will stay there until they can reach their objectives and the donbas. it is impossible for them to back down now. >> if the strategy is to force a copper meister president zelenskyy, how likely is that -- a compromise from president celinda ski, how likely is that -- president zelenskyy, how likely is that? doesn't seem like there will be copper mines? -- compromise?
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>> the key is if we see widespread ukraine offensives in the donbas. it is a different thing mounting a widespread offensive versus defensive. if they have success, it is a real unknown, putin might find himself with his back against the world -- wall. it could be a bloody stalemate, will become a question of so linsky and his western backers, how long will -- president zelenskyy and his western backers for, how long do they want to keep it up? >> what about russia's capacity for another major offensive, short of full more -- mobilization, is it still a possibility? >> i do not think so, they have exhausted themselves time and time again, recently they have had very limited successes in
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the limited area of the donbas. i do not think there is a risk of a large additional offensive. they can, on the other hand sit on their haunches, reinforce the forces they have their, and see whatt kyiv comes up with. my suspicion is what putin is singling his own population that we will not leave this area and singling to kyiv, come to the negotiating table and give us more these areas. we will not be leaving unless you try to push us out. >> how does thisend? president macron talked about a warning of not humiliating russia at the end of this -- >> the reality is that the data field will have an effect, i
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think president macron was eluding to not getting to aggressive in trying to get areas like crimea and so on. sensibly put, there'll need to come a point where two sides, probably short ofhe complete liberation of ukraine or russia having complete control of the to hold onto. they will need to find an accord, as i was saying before, the support of the western powers will play a key role in this. if there is unlimited support ukraine, they can keep carrying on this bloody conflict, there is a lot of moral justification of that without the certainty of victory. people like macron it, and perhaps bite in the future may perhaps start -- biden in the future may start put pressure on kyiv to find a solution with moscow. >> good to have you back,
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consulting principle with the latest on ukraine. plenty more ahead on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a very volatile session for cryptocurrency with bitcoin and ether rebounding for the first
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time in succession after bitcoin saw losses of 10% in the new york session, we continue to see that way lower from the peak back in november 6, 9000 -- more than 20% at some point, we would be watching the crypto stocks, they trade very close to the proxy of bitcoin, already the loss of 25%, we will be watching the reaction in asia as well. >> taking a look at u.s. futures, they are setting up a little bit of a recovery, of course we have that bigger fall -- biggest fall in 13 months u.s. stocks in the s&p down. nasdaq 100 futures looking like we will see a bit more of a recovery as well. we are expecting to see asian tech stocks following their u.s. peers, impacted by the selloff
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across tech, some of these very growthy sections of the market in particular. take a look at we are seeing in the terms of the aussie bond market, the drop in yields continuing, the 10 year yield dropping seven basis points just shy of three and a half percent, we are seeing the three year yield falling 11 more, 10 basis points just shy of 2.93. in particular when it comes to the front end of the bell curve, the most out of the all of them, in fact that curve steepening that we could see in the australian session today, that wrap -- that gap between five and 30's heading its widest sense of march. coming up we be speaking to the hong kong deputy about incoming leader who has bowed to boelter national security and accelerate integration with mail and china
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-- mainland china. we get the indications for the market just ahead. that does it for "daybreak: australia", daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ haidi: good morning, i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i'm shery and in new york. our top stories, further losses and fears over the growth out look intensified. the dollar is at a 2020 hi. fed chief pushes back against the 75 basis point hike, calling


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