guy: the bear market rally seems to have faded rather quickly. technology stocks leading europe lower. miners having a fairly good day. the countdown to the close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close" with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: 30 minutes until the close. this is what the price action looks like.

european stocks fading. some markets are down more than that. technology leading the losses. london outperforming the miners despite the poor data overnight. euro-dollar 104.03. -- 1.0403. apparently the u.k. will not take as much natural gas as we thought. the message is we do not need all the cargo and that has sent prices higher because the messages do not come here. natural cows up 18.22%. -- natural gas up 18.22%. now that we have finland and sweden looking to join nato, will we see a russian gas response? alix: in the u.s. we are seeing a rollover in the equity market. nasdaq 100 off 1.5%. we want to get deeper into the

data with bloomberg's kriti gupta. kriti: that is how the decline in the s&p 500. this is not declining as much as it was last week. there is some hope among the bulls this is a little bit of a plateau when it comes to the conviction selling you have been seeing over the last couple of weeks. a good indication is what you are seeing with the vix. 30 has been the postwar norm when it comes to the volatility picture. if it comes below 30, a sigh of relief some of the bulls saying maybe the selling will turn around. the yields are lower, but only six basis points. on a normal day i would say that is a lot. given the context of 10 or 12 basis moves in one day -- you are seeing a calmer tone when it comes to the market. food prices are higher.

wheat pushes the prices higher off the india export band, given the idea of food inflation could get worse. guy: we had just been hearing about that from the governor of the bank of england. the european economy being impacted significantly by the long shadow being passed over it by ukrainian conflict. another dramatic change in europe security architecture triggered over the weekend as a result of that russian invasion of ukraine. finland and sweden have now announced plans to join the nato. the alliances secretary-general spoke to reporters in berlin. >> this would be an historic moment. there membership in nato would increase our shared security.

demonstrate that nato's door is open and that aggression does not pay. alix: joining -- guy: joining us as the vice president and german marshall funds. no one would have expected this even a few months ago. it is now looking like a certainty that these countries will join. ian, what are the implications of this. should we expect a russian response? ian: russia has been talking about this for mons, faced with the possibility and the prospect. i think a lot of this is rhetorical. there has been talk about tactical nuclear weapons near the border. the truth is russia already has tactical nuclear weapons capable of reaching finland and sweden. there is not a lot they can do. they can threaten, they can posture. i think finland and sweden would

expect utmost solidarity. alix: can they cut off gas and what they? ian: we have already seen some things happen. electricity cut off to finland. there are things they can do but they're also easy ways for sweden and finland to adjust. both countries are highly integrated into the european electrical grid and the energy system. there are workarounds. what does it -- guy: what does it mean for turkey and is the turkish resistance real? ian: the turkish discomfort with this is real. turkey has a complaint about finish and swedish support for groups they view as insurgent groups and terrorists. this is a long-standing issue and i think turkey sees this as

a moment to complain about it. there are already indications turkey is not willing this -- to push this to the point of both countries coming into the alliance. alix: back to your gas point, you mentioned there were power flow shutoffs between russia and finland. there is also the case of an oil embargo i feel we are slowly coming down to. at what point do we see a bigger push against banning russian gas exports from russia? that is the big thing they can wield. ian: in a way it is a race between russia and the european union to see who is willing to pay the cost of sanctions first. europe has a plan to reduce its reliance on natural gas from russia. there is certainly going to be a plan to reduce or stop oil and refined products from russia.

russia may try to accelerate that as a matter of political response, but i cannot see the russians having too much of an incentive to push this beyond russia may do something in the meantime that will accelerate it but we are headed in the same direction at the end of the day. guy: why does finland need to join nato when it is already in eu member? this is a tongue-in-cheek question. is there any chance the eu will provide security guarantees? is this confirmation that is unlikely to happen? ian: for both country, the eu provides a lot. there is a security -- guarantee is maybe the wrong term, but a security solidarity clause in the eu treaty. that is not meaningless but not the same as having membership in the alliance which is a military and security organization. for all the benefits both

countries get out of membership in the eu, they are not going to get that kind of guarantee. that is pre-well understood. nato is a different proposition. alix: last question. how would finnish and swedish membership affect russian naval routes, if any? ian: there are routes of international passage through the baltic, but they are constrained in many areas. there is no question that in a more confrontational situation these questions will be more important. i do not think finland or sweden or nato is looking to restrict international passage, but they are looking to increase maritime security in the baltics. that is something finnish and swedish membership brings. it is very important. alix: ian lesser, vice president

of the german marshall fund, thank you. coming up, quick focus on the u.s.. the senate is trying to get to pass the $40 billion ukraine a belt. we will discuss with the second we will discuss with the second most

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guy: 11 minutes past the hour. this is bloomberg markets, the european close. let's go to david westin who is with senate majority whip dick durbin. david: thank you so much. ray to be with you. thank you for your time today. let's start with what we have been talking about, the issue in ukraine and the prospect of sweden and finland applying to join nato. if that goes forward, how quickly can you and the senate take that up and approve it? can you do it before the recess? sen. durbin: i would call for the most accelerated schedule possible. this is the decision which is good for nato and a powerful message to vladimir putin that every single day he considers --

he continues this insidious invasion he will pay a heavy price. ukraine was supposed to be a pushover, not so. nato was supposed to crumble. it did not happen. russia was supposed to be a greater nation after it is all over. look where russia is today. even mcdonald's is pulling out. vladimir putin has to get the message this was an awful decision. david: a terribly awful situation in ukraine. in the united states we are focused on the question of inflation. my question is, is there anything congress can do in the short and medium-term to make a difference? the competitiveness act is imminent and yet you cannot quite get it done. if you cannot get that done, is there anything congress can do on the subject of inflation. sen. durbin: we are engaged in one of the largest conference committees in recent memory to

get the competitive act done. we will presented to the president and we will be better for it. it will not bring immediately relief to families. look what the president is doing releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. he is doing everything within his power to move this inflation away from american families. it is a tough challenge. david: what about other things the president might be able to do such as relieve the tariffs on china. that would take down the cost of goods quickly. sen. durbin: i am in favor of doing that to help families. there is a larger picture in terms of our relationship with china. i would like to see it more normal. sadly china has been leaning towards vladimir putin in this ukrainian conflict. we cannot have that. we have to have him join the family of civilized nation. david: timing is of the essence, whether it is ukraine or inflation.

we also have midterms. that started to complicate your business? sen. durbin: it will the closer we get to november. events are unfolding. the leaked opinion from supreme court justice alito is now the center priest of conversation from candidates across the united states, right next to inflation, which is our major concern, bringing down pasta to the families. in addition to that, our support for ukraine is bipartisan. we had one senator stop us from putting together any package last week. we hope we can get it done this week. david: you expect to get it done this week? sen. durbin: it was our intention last week. i do not know if the senator rand paul will find new ways to slow us down. we should not waste a minute. david: the nation was horrified with the shooting in buffalo, which was by someone who claimed to be a white supremacist specifically targeting black citizens. it was not the only shooting

over the weekend. five years ago, you proposed the domestic terrorism prevention act. why couldn't you get that done and how might that help the situation? sen. durbin: the senate is divided 50-50 so it is difficult to take anything associated with controversy and bring it before us. the fbi identified before our committee that homegrown terrorism was the greatest threat to our security in this country and the identified white supremacist groups and white nationalist groups come in this case it appears to be a lone wolf in buffalo, but he still was motivated by some of this racist rhetoric that has even found its way into tupper carlsen -- tucker carlson's show on fox with regularity. with that sort of thing we have to be more careful with. to think an 18-year-old killed

10 innocent people and three were seriously wounded, that is a horrible thing and was motivated by hate. david: what would your act do to help with the situation? sen. durbin: we want to report the crimes as they occur. this notion of walking around the problem, the director of the fbi made it clear they want to go after it and collect the data. we have to break down these groups. they are recruiting young people into their ranks. david: we have heard from the president and others we badly need more funding to fight covid. there may be another wave this fall and it has not made it through yet despite the urgency behind it. in part because republicans are saying we want to take care of that title 42 provision that excludes because of covid. are you going to have to get in

on that? sen. durbin: shame on us if we are not prepared for the next variant of covid-19. we went through the early stages of covid where the president was arguing that it was a hoax it was going to go away on its own. we saw a million americans lose their lives. shame on us if we cannot get together on a bipartisan basis and pass the measures we need to pass to pastor promote vaccines and therapeutics and that whatever comes next we are ready. david: in the meantime we have another crisis. that is about baby formula. it is a real problem for a lot of mothers across the country. is there anything congress can do to free up more baby formula in the short term? sen. durbin: we are addressing that this week and i think we should to see if there is more we can do. part of the problem is the food and drug administration found

one major producer to have a contaminated mixture that was out on the market and a danger to the children. they suspended the operations until they could clean up the plant. that has showed down the supply. let me tell you this. what we are finding is price gouging on manufacturers and producers. i cannot think of anything more insidious that a company believing they can make a buck of kids who need basic formula so they can thrive. david: you and i have gone through a number of important issues that are very pressing. we have midterm elections coming up. is there when you think is important and doable before midterm elections. sen. durbin: we have to keep the pressure on to bring the prices down so families can afford the basics. that is the highest priority. this decision from the supreme court is going to be a challenge across america as to whether or not we will give up a basic

freedom, women can have the ability to make their own reproductive choices. i think that'll be a motivating factor for many. david: always appreciate your time. that is senator dick durbin of illinois. guy, thanks for letting me come. guy: it has been a great pleasure. fascinating conversation. dick durbin and david westin. both of you, thank you very much. i want to take you from capitol hill to london in westminster, the center of the u.k. government. there the governor of the bank of england is still taking questions from the treasury select committee. they are talking about the inflation narrative. it is not just about in her. we also have michael saunders, range of the senior policymakers at the bank of england taking questions. michael saunders talking about the fact brexit will not keep u.k. inflation persistently high but brexit may make u.k.

inflation worse in the near term, which is what we are seeing right now. governor bailey head in hands a little bit. i am not sure i am fully representing that. we'll continue to monitor what is happening. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> bear in mind the u.s. had a different approach to fiscal policy. the u.s. handed out money to keep people's jobs in existence. guy: the governor explaining the difference between the approaches taken on either side of the atlantic to deal with the covid crisis.

he is giving testimony and answering questions from the treasury select committee. marcus ashworth, bloomberg opinion columnist has been listening in. the view over the weekend was the governor was going to be facing a grilling today, particularly from conservative mps as to why the bank had been so slow to act in dealing with the inflation we see. is that what we are getting in reality? marcus: it all seems very pleasant so far. everyone has been respectful. i think both governor bailey and his colleagues are working carefully to make sure they are not saying anything inflammatory. businesses around the country and how their particular practices of hiring are different from income shortfalls and cost-of-living crisis is. mostly it has been a wonderful

explanation of how it is not their fault at all. alix: if it is not their fault, how can they fix it? marcus: they cannot. they say they can only mop up the aftermath. by hiking now it can being -- it can bring inf back down. there was nothing they could do about it. the fact -- is apparently not relevant. guy: let's talk about brexit and its relationship with inflation. michael saunders saying brexit may have made u.k. inflation worse, but will not have a long-term impact. if brexit has had an impact near-term on higher inflation, has caused tire inflation, i am assuming a trade war with the eu will make it worse? marcus: i am fed up of listening

to all of that rubbish in these type of excuses. there is something in it but not much. he is not prepared to explain it in any further detail. i do not see a difference between what is going on in europe and what is going on in the u.k. substantially. the after effects -- we do need to move on from blaming brexit for everything. i think it does have a marginal impact but i do not think reaching for this as an excuse is going to wash as far as i'm concerned. david: marcus -- guy: marcus is going to continue this conversation. he will be joining alix and i on the cable show. let's take a quick look at what is happening with the markets. we are about to close down. the ftse 100 is outperforming. the miners is having a good day.

technology is under pressure. the close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

guy: we are wrapping up the monday session in europe. about to close down the regular session. where are we? a fairly mixed picture out of europe. depends on where your market has the heaviest waiting. london outperforming, up around .5%. names like glencore, the miners having a good day. we are seeing the metals market gaining traction. the cac 40 and the dax are negative. areas like technology under pressure. let me so you -- let me show you how we work our ways through the date. a bit of a cap lower. most of the day in a fairly

tight range. a little bit of a pickup before the close and we are finishing flat on the stoxx 600, basically where we started. we'll see what the auction brings. in terms of the sector breakdown , the miners have had a good day. utilities, energy, real estate all rising. quite a mix in terms of what we are seeing. the more value-oriented end of the story, and a similar thing in terms of the picture vis-a-vis energy stocks. technology down, cars down, construction is down. that is why we are seeing the dax under such significant pressure. that is why once you back that out you're getting the performance you are seeing today. that is not real because shareholders are not losing that much money because they are getting a huge amount of cash

being returned to them. we will see that being settled out. tomorrow aviva down but the cash return to shareholders. glencore is up 3.3%. you've seen it across the board when it comes to the main miners. glencore rising nicely. ryanair fairly flat. europe's largest low-cost carrier saying we will see a stellar summer but the winter, he is not so sure about. you are hearing this from various carriers. people have been relieved. they want to go on a summer holiday but after that the clouds appear to be darkening and ryanair, just a little bit of a drip lower as we come through the close in europe. the interesting michael o'leary said was about bowing, he is a huge boeing customer. they have maxes in the fleet and

he is talking about a huge change required from the management point of view to put that aerospace company back on track. alix: over the last couple of hours we've been talking about growth scares weather in europe or the u.s. as well as china. let's give more attention to europe. the european commission warning that if there are serious disruptions in natural gas from russia, the recovery would almost grind to a fault in the eu came out with those revised forecasts today. >> growth is lower and inflation is higher. uncertainly to the outlook has cleared and risk is to the downside. that predominantly these risks related to the duration of the war. alix: joining us is blackrock head of investment strategy. where is the recessionary impulse for europe in a base case scenario? how bad could things get in europe? >> when we look at europe, the

recessionary risks are little bit higher compared to the u.s.. given the higher stagflation reports coming from the inflationary stocks we are seeing in the more supply chain shops we are seeing but also at the energy level, the base case probably still slow down. the peak in growth numbers is clear and we are seeing a slowdown of activity data but not an outright recession. although when thinking about investor positioning a lot of investors are considering how to position for more risk. guy: let's talk about that in more detail. our base case we were see a recession. it is the base case we will see the gas cut off. they are not negligible risks. as an investor, how should i think about how i hedge that risk? karim: as an investor this is

something we need to be considering how to position for these risks and portfolios. we are seeing this come through at a couple of levels. from the european government bond perspective, we have upgraded it to neutral. this is a move in the extent -- we are taking the view those duration moves have gone too far. on the credit level, some interesting opportunities starting to show up in credit as well. also at the level of investment based. still end up in quality view. and then european equities, we have moderated the view, but it is still positive. positive relative to bonds from across asset basis. it is more moderation tilted towards credit and government bonds as opposed to an outright shift. alix: nevertheless, if you take

a look at the spread between bunds and btp's and that is where we will look to measure the stress of the european economy. what is that telling you and does it create any opportunities? karim: when we look at some of the peripheral threats, there are some opportunities thinking about peripheral italian government bonds or spanish, a slight focus given the context the ecb is looking at, potentially starting to pull out from accommodations, a lot of accommodations we have seen throughout the pandemic. perhaps expectations from markets are too high. also when thinking about flows we are seeing in the european space we start to see some pickup in european fixed income flows, both at the government

bond and the corporate bond level. guy: buddy think the market is overpricing the ecb? karim: when thinking about the ecb moves, we are starting to shift the dialogue towards rates moving as soon as july. i'm not saying that is not on the table. when thinking about markets pricing, we are looking at a quite tight market pricing of rate hikes from the ecb, which when constrained some of the growth shocks and the growth downside risks that are specific to europe, it is hard to see how the ecb will move that far. guy: the inflationary risk could be there as well. you could end up with a stagflationary environment. inflation remains very elevated. you end with second-round effects many people are so worried about. karim: absolutely. i do not think we can discount inflationary risks.

it is important to think about the drivers of those inflationary risks? are they supply driven or demand driven? a lot of the shocks we are seeing in europe, and i know it is well after the -- i know it is one after the next, are still supply driven shocks. could this become a self fulfilling prophecy? the risk is there. so for the shocks have been one after the next but a lot of them can be balanced. he did not want to risks tightening too quickly -- you do not want to risk tightening too quickly. alix: if the ecb may not be able to do as many hikes as the market is pricing in, what happens to euro-dollar trading at 1:04? i can count the notes i am seeing about parity. do we get there? karim: we have a couple of drivers. on the one hand you have fun flows. we have seen a significant sale of european equity funds,

including etf, sniff get outflows from european equities. -- significant outflows from european equities. when flows of euro to nominate assets come down, that is putting downward pressure. thinking about the safe haven bids keeping upwards pressure on the dollar, and then the interest rate differential as well between europe and the u.s. , and here's where the ecb and the fed comes into play. you could see euro-dollar remaining under pressure when you put this together. guy: below one? karim: i would not put my target below one. guy: a lot of people are talking about parity envelope. karim: i would say more downward pressure. guy: 1.04 at the moment. karim: it is not a million miles away, but calling it below one i think you need a big trigger and i'm not sure we have that

trigger around the corner. guy: we will leave it there. we will wait and see what happens. we will know the answer fairly soon. kareem should eat -- kareem chatted -- karim chedid, thank you very much indeed. we have seen a mixed market depending on which sectors you are strongest in. the miners have done well. on the continent the autos are down in the technology sector is down as well. the dax and the cac 40 under pressure but off the lows by considerable margin. let's tune in later for more analysis on bloomberg radio. we'll carry on the conversation around europe and the u.k.. we'll do that at 5:00 in london, 12:00 in new york. podcasts are available on spotify in itunes. alix: coming up, problems and the global supply chain have not gone away and you have a

slowdown in china. we will look at it from one of the biggest ports in the u.s., we will talk to the executive director director of the port of los angeles. he will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "the european close." you're looking live shot of the principal room. coming up, sherry moore from morgan stanley wealth joining bloomberg the close. this is bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. germany plans to quit importing russian oil on the end of the year even if the european union fails to agree on a ban. german officials say the government is confident it can solve logistical problems in the next six months. russia's share of german oil production has declined to 12%.

new york city could hit a high covid-19 transmission level that would have health officials reconsidering mask requirements in public places. about 8% of people tested for covid-19 in the last seven days have been -- shanghai is on the verge of beating the goal of zero covid transmission. official site that is what is required to start easing the harshest elements of the lockdowns. official say shopping malls and department stores and convenience stores will resume operations. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: let's talk about the lockdowns. in china they lead to delays in production. what about the supply chain? we are talking to gene seroka, executive director of the port of los angeles.

the over front proceeds whatever disruptions are happening. what are you seeing -- you have a front row seat whatever disruptions are happening? gene: we had our second best first quarter and second best april in the history of the port of los angeles and may arrivals look good as well. the number of ships leaving asia and central china after about where they have been. most of the manufacturing committee is west of shanghai and karger was finding its way to the deep seaports and if not is going down to a neighboring port which is up 25% over the past two months. we are watching day and night but so for the cargo flow seems to be consistent. guy: is the supply-side crisis starting to go away? are we moving on from it or is this going to be a problem for a while? gene: good afternoon. this will take some time. there is an episode every day

that impacts us on the supply train, whether it is on the ground, ukraine impacting energy and agriculture goods flow, the lockdowns and shanghai, 8.3%, producer prices up 11%. all of this is in the supply chain equation. one area that is looking good is our output from the port of los angeles into the domestic economy, 200,000 containers on a rolling 30 day basis. that is the highest it has been in since we've begun recording this important information. alix: what is your visibility without going forward? a lot of the reading is inflation is not a fed problem, inflation is a consumer problem. at some point demand disruption is inevitable. what is your visibility into that? gene: we see purchase orders going out to 90 to 120 days. the next several months look solid on the heels of that q2 replenishment strategy many

importers and home improvement stores have been executing. we see in earlier than normal peak season with landing starting at the port of los angeles at the end of june and early july. we will have to watch the consumer confidence index down, retail sales looking choppy. all indications for the retailers are strong in continued shipping volume as we look forward. guy: tomorrow we will get the retail sales number and get an update on what is happening this week. the question everybody is trying to figure out, and you have given us a little bit of a hint of that is the consumer going to crack? you get any sense judging by what you are seeing the u.s. consumer is slowing down? you see any hints in the numbers you are seeing this is an economy heading for a recession? gene: as most of this cargo is a leading indicator to the u.s. economy, nothing just yet. by definition with the first

quarter gdp declined by 1.4%, you're halfway to an economic definition of recession. we have to continue to see this moving forward. right now with record levels of savings in u.s. consumer accounts, there is not a look that says consumer buying is going to slow down anytime soon. we have to watch the april numbers. this say slower period in time. alix: last week wage talks started between international long short and warehouse unions. can you give be insight into how they are going, when an agreement might be reached, and what you are looking at? gene: both sides have seasoned negotiators at the table. the contract expires at the end of june. most of us see negotiations going past that that has been fairly traditional. no need for worry right now at this point. the dockworkers are still going

out in record numbers and will continue to do so. we have talked to the leadership of the workforce as well as the employers association in recent days and weeks. they will make sure all of this cargo continues to move. they understand these 29 ports represent about 9% of the nation's gdp, and everyone is watching us. guy: high fuel prices -- our high fuel prices having an impact and if so where? gene: fuel is across-the-board in this transportation sector from trucking prices to the railroads at the high cost component of the shipping vessels. with the price per barrel over $110, everyone is watching this particular area as well. we have to be more efficient and it adds to the number of components with rising cost structures in the supply chain. very important to all of us. alix: i will pair that with the

wage conversations we have been talking about. wages have been rising but not at the same pace as inflation. how do you think the pendulum will swing? is it going to swing in terms of wages getting higher than inflation or will inflation start to eat away at everything? gene: this is the big question. we have about 11 point 7 million jobs open in the united states alone. hiring the marginal worker at the higher price creates a different wage structure. as we have said, our workers around six days a week on average since the pandemic began. we have to find ways to recruit and retain folks in the trucking and warehousing sectors. the rising cost of wages -- the family see at their dinner tables every night. guy: thank you so much for all of your time.

gene seroka, port of los angeles executive director joining us from d.c. thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: u.s. stocks jumping around. the dow in positive territory will abigail doolittle is tracking those moves. abigail: investors trying to find some footing on this monday. mainly down on the s&p and 500 but the dow up slightly. the s&p 500 earlier down 1% on the nasdaq earlier down more than 1%. now you see a small loss on the s&p 500. a solid loss for the nasdaq. yields in, in theory that should help tech stocks. that is not the case. maybe a little bit of coming back from friday's rally. speaking of rally, take a look

at natural gas, european natural gas of 15.5% over last six or seven days. this is the fifth or sixth double digit move. more volatility per certain markets around the world. as for movers on the day, let's take a look at what is happening. it has to do with a lot of the big tech numbers. microsoft down close to 2%. it seems as though the move in yields down may help a turnaround. on the other hand, expedia lower , and twitter down a seventh day in a row. down 20% as elon musk's bid is on hold. i would make the case that one day a trend does not make. we could see some kind of a trend, we may be looking at a near-term bottom for the s&p 500. the rsi coming off of the bottom suggesting that the -- that if the dip buyers reemerge from the

s&p 500 could try for 4500 or so. alix: that would be a bear market rally. guy: mike wilson talking about a bear market rally. great stuff. abigail doolittle what is happening on the markets. let's talk about the next 24 hours. later today president biden is meeting with the greek prime minister at the white house. will get filings from hedge funds. we will get some of those tonight. alix: tonight if you live in new york and go home you are looking at hale and potentially a tornado. i'm just putting that out there. in terms of data, u.s. retail sales will be front and center. also earnings and walmart. all of that interesting. you get verizon raising their prices for the first time in two years. how much money will you have to buy stuff? that is something we will discuss over the next 24 hours. that does it for guy and me on

television. coming up on balance of power with david westin, former ambassador john negroponte will be joining him. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the world of politics. >> as patriots, willing to compromise on committee. >> to the world of business. >> we will find out soon and not too soon, maybe by first quarter of next year if we will go well beyond neutral. >> this is balance of power westin. -- with david westin. david: from bloomberg world headquarters, to our audiences worldwide, welcome to balance of power. we begin with