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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  May 22, 2022 10:00pm-12:00am EDT

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10:00 a.m. here in hong kong and singapore. this is bloomberg markets. yvonne: our top stories, asian stocks see mixed trading on a softer dollar but investors cautious over whether the selloff has further room to run. have we reached the bottom? australia's new premised are heading to a quad meeting immediately after taking the job, putting his china strategy and focus. and biden in tokyo. beijing revives concerned the capital may face a lockdown. rishaad: let's take a look at the usual suspects as it were a. we have a hawkish fed. and a business cycle which has seemingly fallen apart. an mliv pulse survey of some 1009 respondents saying we have even further to go to the downside. we see this biggest policy
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tightening in decades. flirting with the bear market last week respondents suggesting we could see more pain. yvonne: at least 10% is what the survey suggests. coming at a time where we were seeing some optimism last week and it seems like we hit the skids on that again. david: a strong dollar will do that to you. certainly leading that reversal from last week is while the rest of the region and across a lot of your futures contracts are up right now, a reversal for csi 300, .5%, really bucking this trend higher across what you are seeing right now. but what is consistent and we will have to see how long this lasts, because this is really your window, when the sun and and clouds shield you from the harmful rays of the sun, is when the dollar comes out. as you can see, we are still weaker on that one. yvonne: you take a look at just what we saw at least for last week was that china was finally
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bucking the outperformance we saw the u.s. analysts had been calling all of late 2021, it's finally happening. the end of may. the etf flows we have been seeing. k web tracks the movement we are seeing, csi versus sp why. we saw some of the biggest weekly inflows since january for that etf. certainly there has been some, have all the bad news been priced in, today could be the exception. rishaad: of course underpinning this is the recent dollar strength we have been seeing. maybe that is just ebbing a bit. we had dollar weakness last week. but does that dollar weakness have legs? and to answer that, we have a chart. david: this is the drop we had. a little bit lower right now. when you look beneath the hood, we have crunched some numbers in terms of some of your momentum
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indicators, if you will. we were at very extreme levels on the long dollar trade. late april in some cases up until even the second week of may. you are starting to see that come up a little bit. one month highs on the 14 day rsi. you can see the dollar against their peers, we've pretty much come off. we are about neutral between the 30 and 70 level. it is almost like a reset. yvonne: let's bring in our next guest who expects the dollar to weaken of across the board over the next quarter. andrew, tell us more about the cooling of the dollar rally we have seen. is this something you think is a shifti -- shift in where the global sentiment is right now or is it profit-taking going on? andrew: i think there is a broad shift. there has been a lot of noise in the markets over the last few months with the invasion in ukraine and food prices rising
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whether anomaly is and also the ending of the covid pandemic and the continued issues related to supply and the workforce. and while these are not medium-term issues, they will subside and we will see the reserve banks perhaps not raise interest rates in the u.s. dollar will weaken as a result. david: but inflation is still around, andrew. andrew: without a doubt that is still around, but i think we are seeing an overreaction to what is happening in the world in reaction to where the market expects interest rates to go. while i expect the fed and the ecb and the rba the rbnz will raise rates in the next few months, they will not be going as high as we expect. rishaad: i guess ultimately, what we have are commodities being priced in dollars. so perhaps this does lessen the impact of inflation if we see sustained dollar weakness for emerging markets, as they can
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make more stuff with their dollars than they could before. andrew: exactly. and it is balancing and equilibrium in the markets that is naturally occurring. it is a positive sign for the markets overall and i think we will see that risk appetites across all markets will decrease over the next months. yvonne: so what is the best way to fate this dollar strength of this quarter? what is the best trade? andrew: oh, well i think the euro has been oversold. if you look at the currency exchange, we expect the ecb will raise rates, and fears around ukraine will subside. finland and sweden joining nato is a big deal, but it's really symbolic. i think the euro is well oversold. we are also very long gold and silver in the commodity space. david: just a little more on your call on the euro, because if you have a view on the yen if
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you can sure that too, it's indirectly of you on the dollar index. if you can put that to us in dollar index terms, how much of a drawdown the csr is a drawdown is concerned? andrew: the euro given its waiting in the fact the rise potentially between 5% to 10% over the next two months. we are looking for a big and very significant move in the euro versus the u.s. dollar. in terms of yen, we're flat with the dollar-yen. we don't have a view as strong as the euro, but certainly the euro will have a big impact on the dollar index. yvonne: and when it comes to the aussie dollar, i am guessing, is the election over the weekend in any way driving what is going on, or just focusing on the central bank over the next three to six months? andrew: i don't think the election had any impact, although we will focus on the reserve bank.
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but certainly there are some long-term issues with what has happened with the australian election over the weekend, and that might impact the australian dollar strength. we are seeing a shift towards a government that potentially is more focused on climate action, that we'll have an impact on the australian dollar long-term. i also think depending on whether or not the government is able to get a majority, which it looks like it will, traders on the market may price in increased volatility because of uncertainty around the new government's prudential, and whether or not -- credentials, and whether or not they can push their new policies through. david: final question on your softer dollar review. the biggest risk, sir, in your view to that call? andrew: the biggest risk is escalation of the russian ukraine crisis, and how putin reacts to what is happening in europe. hopefully he has a levelheaded. if he does not, i think we will see a rapid reversal, and we are
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ready to move on that if the u.s. dollar moves rapidly in relation to what is happening in europe. yvonne: andrew su joining us from sydney. taking a look at markets, if you're looking for some sort of continuation of what we are seeing in this rally in the region, it is probably what we are seeing in the futures market. s&p futures, dow jones futures, nasdaq futures all in the gr een. after what we have seen in the tech space amid this rising rate of environment, the nasdaq has seven weeks of declines, the longest streak since 2011. we're still 30% off of the peaks of february. still a lot of questions as to whether we have reached the bottom when it comes to u.s. stocks. rishaad: let's look at some first word news headlines now. china's foreign minister criticizing washington's indo pacific strategy as president biden visits the region to
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increase engagement with allies. he said the strategy is quote, doomed to fail, and meant to incite confrontation, and ultimately destroyed peace. biden is set to unveil the framework as part of his efforts to counter china's influence in asia. apac trade ministers meeting in bangkok failed to issue the customary joint statement after officials from washington and allies reportedly left after remarks by russia's's minister, while the russian delegation boycotted the u.s. instead they authorized the host thailand to make a statement. shanghai will start categorizing parts of the city by covid risk, as authorities take new steps to curb infections and end strict lockdowns that began in late march. starting next month, parts or shanghai will be designated as low, medium, or high risk areas. 14 days without community infection will be low risk,
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while people in medium or high risk areas will be restricted to their homes. india's cut taxes on fuel and boosted its subsidy for fertilizers and cooking gases as inflation hits household farmers. we also want to -- they soared in april to the highest in more than 30 years. fuel tax cuts will cost around $13 billion annually. pakistan's former prime minister imran khan asking supporters to march to islamabad on wednesday to press for new elections. the move is likely to fuel further political instability in the country already facing an economic crisis. he's held a series of rallies recently, drawing huge crowds aimed at channeling anger against the current government. and that is a look at the first word headlines. david: just ahead here, we're
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talking southeast asia with oxford economics, and whether the region and the economies can be among the big winners in a post-pandemic world. yvonne: australia has sworn in his 31st prime minister, who is now set to join joe biden in japan. we will have more details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: we are barely midmorning and we are losing quite a bit of momentum across the markets. strong start out of the gates, then hong kong opened, and since then not only have the benchmarks come down, but pulling down everything else, off highs of the day. we will see what happens. we are about to erase of the early games, only up about .1%.
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rishaad: geopolitics front and center, top of the to do this for us to do list for australia's new prime minister anthony albanese, who was sworn in just a few hours ago. tuesday he will join president biden in japan for a quad meeting with china set to be in focus. yvonne: let's bring in stephen engle and paul allen in sydney. paul, what role do you think australia is going to have in this quad meeting when the prime minister does meet in japan? paul: yes. anthony albanese was handed a victory very early on saturday night. he wanted him to be sworn in so australia could be represented with some certainty on the global stage. anthony albanese's rhetoric around china will be watched very closely at the meeting. before the election he was attacked by the outgoing prime minister scott morrison as being
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the chinese palm it -- chinese communist party's pick, so albanese toughened his language. he gave a press conference a short time ago. let's listen to what he had to say. >> the relationship with china will remain a difficult one. i said that before the election. that has not changed. it is china that has changed, not australian, and australia should always stand up for our values, and we will in the government that i lead. paul: before the election, anthony albanese also declined to say whether or not he would accept a call from chinese premier xi jinping. there are some moderates in his cabinet however that favor working with china on issues such as climate change. rishaad: all right. steve, we've got quite a robust response here from china, calling this whole policy the
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u.s. has in asia as quote, doomed to fail. stephen: we have heard this from them before. in the early days of russia's invasion of ukraine, instead of condemning that invasion, you heard him condemn america's pursuit of a nato-like bloc for the asia-pacific, and that is what we will have tomorrow. in china's estimation, the meeting of the quad. that is japan, the u.s., india, and australia. there are a lot of issues that they need to be discussing, not to mention of course the war in ukraine but also north korea's sabre-rattling, and against the backdrop of china's more assertiveness in eastern asia. and all the issues there. china did condemn, or did
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criticize the efforts by biden with this indo pacific economic framework. it's sort of a watered down trade agreement, if you will tpp-lite, as being doomed to fail. we will have to see what happens of the bilateral between japan and mr. biden at of the quad tomorrow. david: paul, on the angle of climate change, and certainly the vote was indirectly get pushback on the lack of action for climate change. might that be the common ground we might see with the new prime minister and the chinese? paul: haidi: potential -- paul: potentially. the results on saturday night in australia was very interesting. the primary vote for both the maybury -- both the major parties fell back, and it was picked up in large part by clement-focus groups. the green party -- part by
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climate-focused groups. the entire ring around sydney harbour has now turned teal, being held by so-called teal independents who have a liberal ideology but a green tinge to them. a number of liberal seats that have been liberal seats for decades have fallen to the so-called teal independents. at the moment labor does not have an outright majority. it looks like it will probably get one, but if it does not, they will rely on these green-focused candidates. yvonne: we were talking to a previous guest about how this quad alliance has lost a bit of effectiveness in the past few years. what is needed to restore that credibility? it seems there are still members within this quad that are wary about provoking china. stephen: absolutely. you want to stand firm but not provoke. and you have essentially three fairly new leaders.
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mr. albanese, very new. then of course you have mr. kishida and biden. this is biden's first visit to asia after 16 months from the inauguration. so he's pretty much laying out his asia-pacific strategy, geopolitically and economically, but also having interpersonal relationship building, especially with mr. albanese. and in india, mr. modi is the wildcard, who also has had military ties and procuring of military hardware from russia. so it is going to be a very interesting day tomorrow for the quad as relationship building is going on but also what japan might pitch. we're hearing from the nikkei newspaper that japan's kishida wants to increase military spending. that is a very sensitive issue japan, with its pacifist constitution. it spends about 1% of gdp on defense right now.
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it could potentially go higher because nato members have a goal of 2% of their gdp to be spent on defense. will japan do that? rishaad: stephen engle in hong kong, paul allen in sydney, as markets doing a turnaround. full details on that, coming up ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: you are seeing some of this risk appetite sapping out this monday morning here, after what was pretty optimistic at the get-go on the back of perhaps china emerging out of lockdowns in shanghai. but seems to be reversing right now, and hong kong and shanghai are leading the losses lower. we are pretty much flat on the apac index.
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didi shareholders are connected to vote in favor of delisting in the york during a special meeting monday. it will end 11 months of turmoil after its u.s. debut sparked a string of regulatory crackdowns by beijing, wiping $60 billion. it would clear the way for a possible share float in hong kong. tesla may hire a large number of people in research and development in shanghai. state media reports most of the recruits would be based in the city district where tesla's factory and other carmakers are located. the number of workers is not known but positions are said to pertain to vehicle software and hardware design engineering. sources tell bloomberg that broadcom is in talks to buy vmware. the chipmaker has been searching for a big acquisition. the ceo has embarked on a series of purchases as he looks to expand the business into one of the largest and most diverse in the industry. vmware has a market around $40
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billion. airbus's corporate jet division is more optimistic about this year, even as the war in ukraine and china's covid lockdowns weigh on sales. they had a slow couple of years for orders of its newest business jet model, with almost all travel curtailed. but sales are now trending upwards, with five orders so far this year. david: let's have a look under the hood of this engine that is sputtering. looking at a benchmark. barely off a fraction of a point. about .1%. as you can see, some of the big chinese tech names are pulling this one down. alibaba is down about 3%. tencent, 2%. by the way, there's a big shareholder meeting today from didi. just watch out for that. in terms of the bad options in front of this company, what those options look like. that is want to watch. let's look at the momentum
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coming into this week. a couple of things here. last week we did manage to snap six weeks of losses on the benchmark. it is going to take a lot more of that and a lot more time of that to turn ship around. the decline line is still moving down in price. advanced decline line is looking at a similar slope, which indicates this downtrend, that seems quite solid. let me end with what a bull market looks like. it is quite obvious compared to what you have in 2017. in terms of the signaling coming through, yes, you got the cost over here, but a stronger one might be moving back into positive terrain. we did bounce off about two year lows so we will see what happens with this. rishaad: and again, yield curve, the flattening of light, falling, long-term yields in particular. the question of the day is how much recession risk have assets
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priced in? what we have is the s&p 500 of course near the bear market levels. of course we have a recession now getting stronger. don't forget the dollar spot index also retreating. two-year highs earlier this month. how much of a shift is needed, particularly among risk assets, before a recession in the u.s. is pricing in? that is the just of the question of the day. yvonne: the focus is recession risk. but according to garfield reynolds, the inflation story is still there. if you still see inflation at 6%, 7%, that is not going to cut it for the bulls, to really put more risk on the table. it is still pretty jittery, that is the safe thing to say. but it really is the hong kong and china story that is dragging much of the region lower. the beijing record cases we are seeing in covid, raising concerns about lockdowns.
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how quickly can china emerge out of this covid zero strategy is still the lingering question you are seeing when it comes to chinese assets. rishaad: also the overlay. we seem to forget there is a war going on in eastern europe. that has lifted up the whole commodities complex, getting jolted as a consequence. and the ensuing supply-chain bottlenecks are back as well. so, certainly there is a lot going on here as well, which at the moment, is just taking its roll -- toll on investors. is it investor fatigue? do they run for the hills? plenty more ahead. david: well, yes. they have, and
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yvonne: 11:29 a.m. in tokyo, we have president i didn't -- but
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did meeting with the prime minister. we have the newly sworn in prime minister of australia also headed that way with his delegation as these quad meetings are underway. markets, not a whole lot of news driving things right now. david: no, and might as well get that lunch break, right? this market was up substantially more than current levels earlier. dollar-yen is continuing to come up. we will talk more about the dollar that seems to be divergent -- divorcing itself from an equity market that is losing its fame. we are getting both today. 10 year bonds in japan are higher. we will see if we can continue these gains. but it seems we are losing momentum quite quickly here.
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rishaad: time to look at the first word news headlines. anthony albanese has been sworn in as australia's new prime minister, his party promising swift action on climate change and wage growth. he will fly to tokyo to join a meeting of the quad security mission. bangkok voters backing an independent in the governor race for the first time in a decade. he will tackle age-old problems like pollution and flooding. general elections are due early next year. president biden warning about the monkeypox outbreak after two cases were confirmed in the u.s. the rare and potentially deadly
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cousin of smallpox is traditionally confined to africa, but infections have been rising in europe and north america. his advisers are working on a response. new york city police are searching for a man who shot and killed a subway commuter in an unprovoked attack. witnesses told media the gunman fired one shot as a q train pulled into the canal street station. the mayor made reducing violent crime a central plank of his election campaign. infant formula will arrive in u.s. stores as early as this week. they will deliver 32 million tons from europe. the biggest manufacturer abbott laboratories issued a voluntary recall and closed plants after four infants fell ill. that is the first word news. yvonne: president joe biden is
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meeting with the prime minister in japan. a lot to talk about here as they continue launching this indo pacific trade pact. a lot of people in the region asking what are we signing for? the details are vague, so hopefully, we will hear more countries are signing onto this framework that will be announced later today. you are seeing kishida. we heard lines from the chief cabinet secretary in tokyo saying they want to strengthen the alliance between the u.s. and japan during this visit. they then move onto these quad happenings meeting happening therefore -- before biden wraps up his asian trip on tuesday. seeing smiles from the president this morning. mliv is going to be tracking this meeting and getting commentary and analysis
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from our expert better -- editors at bloomberg. and we are looking at u.s. stocks and asking guests, when are we going to hit that bottom when it comes to the s&p 500? we have flirted with a bear market, but quietly avoided that on friday. here is what the street is saying so far. >> it only in you. -- in you. -- i knew. >> i think we are getting close to it, actually. >> when you look at the trend, it is still pointing downward. >> we still have further to fall. >> i think we're going to end the year slightly higher than we are year to date. >> once we get a signal from the fed, the market will ease up. >> you need more than that to stop this fall. >> over the summer the s&p could touch down to 3600. >> if somebody has the bottom indicator, my phone number --
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[laughter] david: it is a simple yes or no question, are stocks going to go up or down? it is a 50-50, if you had the answer, you would golden -- be golden. and let's face it, no one really knows where stocks are going to go. briefly entered a bear market, and as yvonne pointed out, we backed off from that level. a little bit on the findings of this poll. let's change the graphic and have a look. from current levels at 3920, about 10% further is our finding, give or take. check that out for our bloomberg clients. rishaad: let's get to our mliv strategist, you came up with the question of the day, which is how much recession risk is in christ in two assets -- priced in two assets? there is certainly different parts to this, give us a sense
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of what the response has been and what you're thinking is? marc: that mliv pulls survey, we had over a thousand response to that. as david was saying, the majority still see the s&p falling farther this year. some of the big clouds on the horizon have to do with fed policy, china covid zero policy, and the risk from oil markets as well. a lot of people want to see the fed changing direction before they would become bullish on the u.s. equity market. others think that is not likely to happen in the near term, the fed has a lot of work to do on raising interest rates. that is a vector we will have to wait longer for. china's covid policy appears to be using in some areas, but with the news from beijing, it's a long way from completely turning the corner.
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we will have to wait on that score before china's economy is really open. and then you have the oil economy which is partly influenced by the war in ukraine, so oil prices are much higher than is comfortable for the global economy. there is a piece out today saying about the energy shock which could cause outages around the world this year. particularly when the heat in the northern hemisphere rises. there is a lot of major factors coming on stream which make it look as though any rallies in equity markets for the time are probably still within the context of a bigger bar market. -- bear market. david: that that has told us as clearly as it can that it plans to battle inflation. if it needs to take rates beyond troll and -- neutral and wait there for inflation to cool down, do we get to a point where the fed does not get to neutral,
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and the economy forces it to change tack? mark: definitely, that is a possibility. when he think about the oil story, if you get a situation, when you think about the supply constraints, the war and slowdown in china, if you get a situation where there are blackouts in major economies. during the summertime where people cannot run air conditioners and companies cannot run factories, if we see that, that is a significant shock which is not fully priced in and the fed would have to take it very seriously. that is a situation where they would have to recalibrate and say maybe we don't need neutral rates, we can shut up our hiking cycle a little earlier. for all the hawkish talk the fed is putting out there, they will be watching various indicators to say, have we got this wrong, are we pushing rates too far, is
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there a need to step back? that's not the case yet, but they will be watching very closely to see how the global economy develops. yvonne: there is still a lot of angst when it comes to chinese markets, given what we are seeing with china and hong kong bucking the trend, whether it is the concerns of beijing going to a lockdown, but even writing about the support for the property sector, how supportive is the action we have seen? mark: it certainly is a positive step. the fact that you have a major chinese property companies that are now able to raise funds, particularly onshore, which helps them a lot. there are a lot of u.s. dollar bonds maturing this year and asked year. -- next year. major chinese companies are huge borrowers and have a lot of refinancing to. -- to do.
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the fact that they are able to access the domestic markets is very helpful. there are still plenty of other headwinds in china. a lot of people are uncertain about the tech sector as well. but gradually, china appears to be moving in the right direction and getting some kind of bottom in place for the property sector would be helpful in pushing china ahead. we're still kind of in this one step forward, one step backward situation. or on a valuation basis as well, chinese stocks are taking a battering. so any incremental good news helps them perform slightly better than some other regional mark -- markets. rishaad: our mliv strategist mark cranfield there for us. we are looking at asean, in our next protest, whether southeast
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asia can be among the winners in the post-pandemic world. that's up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: welcome back. you're watching "bloomberg markets: asia", before we talk about southeast asia, we want to like this move on in the kiwi dollar. we are up 1% as far as the kiwi is concerned, 64. 61. let's look at southeast asia, and speaking of this divergence between what is happening in currency and equity markets, caution and a mixed bag across southeast asia. we this in singapore and other markets in the region. yvonne: southeast asia, is that going to be the offset amidst all the risk we are seeing right now? when it comes to growth, in the last two weeks, some interesting figures here. malaysia first quarter growth estimates beat by a lot.
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philippines as well. thailand, those three with a sizable beats here. perhaps it is time for analyst and economists to adjust to this ketchup story we are seeing. rishaad: we have growth prospects in focus with priyanka kishore, head of southeast asia economics at oxford economics. as a southeast asia opens up after those lockdowns, the reopening's, and the bounce in tourism as well perhaps contributing, but how long does that last and when does the party perhaps come to an end? or does it? priyanka kishore great question, you have put it well enough. there are external headwinds and which one dominates eventually. just going by these spectacular
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q1 outcomes, it is inevitable that you have to upgrade philippines. malaysia probably will be close to 7% this year. from a growth momentum perspective, we have seen a lot of that ketchup demand play out in q1 itself. economies have proved resilient to the omicron outbreaks, more than anticipated. as you go to q2, the external headwinds have strengthened significantly. you will probably see some slowdown in growth momentum. i would not say the party is ending, but it is going to turn less loud. yvonne: less loud, is inflation going to turn less loud? we have food prices picking up in a big way as well, can inflation stay manageable? priyanka: growth inflation has
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surprised on the upside. indonesia is a big example, inflation jumped by 8%. you could very well be heading there this quarter. philippines inflation skyrocketing. inflation problems have come hand in hand. we are seeing a global stagflationary shock play out. but food prices are something quite domestic to asia as well. this is not going to go away anytime soon. i think the term manageable really is the key. even if inflation is three or 4%, it is worse in other parts of the world, leading to bigger hikes by central banks, here we can probably control inflation
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with price control subsidies, and more neutral rate hiking, maybe 75 basis point or so, that will keep the recovery chugging along and economies can level this level of them wanted -- whether this level of monetary tightening. rishaad: do you look at energy security, or whether they have a surplus or deficit, who does better than others? priyanka: clearly, singapore which saw. good growth performance last year, is the only major asean economy where growth will take a much bigger hit. the mas has been much more proactive in tightening, and trade is such a big part of the system. trade really matters in deciding who are the winners or the
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losers. for example, indonesia benefiting from very high commodity prices. there was that temporary ban on palm oil exports which has not been reversed. a strong forecast for 5.7 indonesia growth out there, which was above consensus. similarly, malaysia benefiting from hard commodity prices. on the other hand, philippines not doing that great. that will be a driver growth. -- drag for growth. i am only talking about goods trade so far. thailand, a big beneficiary from services rebound with tourism coming back. david: david here, i'm just going to bring the u.s. part of the equation in here. how does some hybrid of stagflation or recession next
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year in the u.s. show up in eastern or southeast asia? priyanka: that is a growing risk. it's just not the u.s. you are talking about the probability of a recession is higher there, but they have raised rapidly in europe as well with the war in ukraine. and closer to home, china itself , prospects are for a hard landing in a scenario of extended lockdowns which could see beijing or other major cities go through lockdowns. china's growth pitfall to close to 1% in a downside scenario. that is going to have to knock on effects on the rest of the region. you might not see a technical recession in every part of southeast asia, but it will feel recession-like because one of the main factors propping up growth is real incomes are still
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positive in southeast asia, with minimum wage hikes expected to come through. if that does not play out, you will see a much bigger growth hit. yvonne: we saw the philippines and malaysia kick off their hiking cycle, can you walk us through what you think this cycle will look like for southeast asia, and are there rare exceptions that will not follow the fed? priyanka: malaysia was a clear surprise. inflation is the lowest in the region in malaysia. inflationary pressures are not so evident because they are really piling on those subsidies and buffering the economy. they have said that because growth was recovering so quickly, they chose to move fast. probably will see another 25 to 50 basis points hike there. that is one of the countries that has been proactive and is in a comfortable place. on the other spectrum is
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philippines expecting a hike. this does not -- real rates will still stay extremely negative. the joker in the pack, bi, we are expecting them to move later. india with this unscheduled rate hike tilted the balance of risk for the region as a whole. it is possible bi moves as well. rishaad: priyanka from oxford economics there. ♪
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david: ok. welcome back to the show. as you can see, there are three of us now. it's been a while. have a look at central bank decisions this week, there is more than three. the bank of korea, new zealand, etc. eco go on your terminal, most are expected to hike rates. this theme will continue throughout this week. i think we are going to get up and running. it is bank of indonesia which
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picks us up tomorrow. in 20 minutes, we should get the latest hibor, and the spread between hibor and libor. and they hong kong dollar will be updating in 20 minutes from now. rishaad: let's quickly look at hong kong. they are not joining in with the rally, that was expected given what we saw. the tech index dragging down a 2.6%. a lot of this negative sentiment is being engendered by what is happening in beijing which had a record number of covid cases during its current outbreak. nothing compared to what we saw in shanghai. the worry is they go into lockdowns to stamp out the community spread, that together with this unexpected no change
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in the one year lp, the five-year was unchanged. we were basking in that, but not really today. yvonne: it is beijing that is the concern now. shanghai seems to be slowly emerging out of this. but how they actually get out of covid zero is still unclear. hong kong is still pretty much the same story as well. continue to see the drag. david: you can walk out on the street but the shops were closed, what can you buy? yvonne: or tomorrow. david: there was plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: almost 11 a.m. in
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singapore, welcome to bloomberg markets: asia, i me yvonne man. rishaad: markets sinking further into the red as concerns of covid lockdowns outweigh recent signs of negative sentiment coming to an end. president biden arriving to tokyo in his first trip to the region as the u.s. leader. india stepping up its inflation fight with a $26 billion fiscal package including cuts to fuel taxes and import duties. yvonne: take a look at markets, not seeing big drivers today. we saw this rally at the get go, there was not any news driving that sentiment. you take a look at hong kong and china, you are seeing a clear story of risk appetite just evaporating after that one day of gains we saw on friday that sent markets heading higher after lpr.
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it is a beijing story, record cases there, angst that they may get a lockdown like shanghai. even though we see shanghai -- looking better. cases are nationally below 1000, now they have this plan about low risk and high risk areas. but still, it is very much that covid lockdowns story which is weighing on hsi. hstech is heading lower and dragging things. you are seeing a bloomberg dollar index in retreat. asia fx is looking better, we are watching 1% gains in the kiwi dollar. we have had resistance levels after this decline. maybe we're reaching those levels right now. the singapore, aussie dollar and the pound with games across the board. the long he is catching a bid, but short yen it is still selling off across markets today.
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we are expecting the rbc and bi to kick off this week. rishaad: the new governor of b angkok, they voted for their transport minister. the baht is up for a third day. at the same time, weaker dollar inflows improving prospects for tourism, essentially behind this move. the is down 2.6% against the greenback since the start of the year. then nifty contract in singapore is unchanged and the rupee remains under pressure ,77.54 as india steps up its fight against inflation, with cuts taking
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place from fuel taxes and other taxes, import duties, fiscal measures designed to fight inflation. yvonne: let's bring in our mliv contributor garfield reynolds, joining us from sydney, it's a quiet day news wise, what is top of mind for you? garfield: top of mind would be a couple of things. one of them is this balance of the aussie dollar against the u.s. dollar which is not seem to be happening on the back of any actual news, and underscores the lack of any real conviction in what is going on. it seems as if this is just a by the currencies that have come down the most, it is about
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positioning, ok, baby this is the best price we will get for a while. the lack of news, the lack of anything really saying this looks like a really that could sustain. i think that adds to the undercurrent of angst that is out there. rishaad: there is, certainly. and the same usual suspects as well. garfield, we have the same things around last week being prevalent, the question we have ultimately is what is actually being priced in, and in which asset class? garfield: depends on what you are talking about. one thing which has not been priced in adequately is the long-term destruction by russia's invasion of ukraine, and russia talking about essentially weaponizing food supplies, and the potential that
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is going to cause extreme suffering, elevated inflation around the world. a general unhappiness that is going to go on disrupting what some are already calling a post-globalization phase. i don't see signs of that being priced in by a lot of asset classes all. it's very interesting what is going on with pricing for the fed, and how for the central banks, there is a sense, both in equities and in rates traders, that the fed and other central banks have become as aggressive as they are going to get. and that this might be peek inflation, peak aggression i'd be concerned that that is a bit earlier especially as far as peak hawkishness because even if
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inflation comes down, but that is going to want to stick with rate hikes until it is sure that inflation is past us. yvonne: you mentioned positioning, how are people viewing treasury markets right now? is it time to go along, what is the street saying? garfield: this street has made it clear that it was the time to go along. we got up to 3%, each time we got just over or just under 3%, there were waves of buying that came in. i thought it was extraordinary last week, we had some pretty large selling operations going on in the futures market, and that did not seem to stop yields from going down at all. all on a long-term horizon, the treasury market is telling you 2.80 23% is as good as they see yields getting, which is
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extraordinary when you consider the likelihood the fed has quite a few rate hikes in them. and also the potential that some of those concerns about supply chain issues would tend to indicate that inflation might not be done here. buying and holding treasuries at 2.8 to 3%. rishaad: our chief rates correspondent, garfield reynolds. we have been asking when we might hit rock bottom on the s&p 500? >> i don't know. >> i don't have a crystal ball, mind is just dark right now. >> 20 look at the trend, it is still pointing downward. >> i think we are going to end
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slightly higher than we are today. >> you are going to need more than that to stop this fall. >> we think over the summer, the centipede could touch down to 3600. -- the s&p kick touchdown these 3600. >> david: yvonne: this is the survey we got last week from mliv pulse. more pain to, according to consensus after we surveyed about a thousand people, most expect the index to fall another 10% or more. 28% think we will hit 3401-3600 levels for the s&p. so, not seeing a bottom just yet. not for the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. >> china's ministers criticized
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washington's indo pacific strategy as president biden visits to engage with allies. wang says it is doomed to fail and create division. anthony albanese has been sworn in as australia's prime minister , promising swift action on climate change, gender equality and wage growth. he will fly to tokyo to join a meeting of the quad security partnership. it is unable -- unclear whether he will be able to hold -- form a majority government. india has cut taxes on fuel and boosted subsidies as inflation hits farmers, households and manufacturers. they have waived import taxes on coke and coal.
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the finance minister said the fuel tax cuts will cost around $30 billion annually. hsbc has suspended an executive after he downplayed the risks of climate change. he is responsible for heading the banks asset investment unit. he criticized hsbc for paying too much attention to climate and other environmental and social issues. the ceo says his remarks are inconsistent with he strategy and do not reflect the views of senior management. bangkok voters have backed an independent to become the first governor in a decade. he now faces the challenge to rebuild bangkok's status as a tourism hub. he will tackle age-old issues like pollution and flooding. those are your first word headlines. yvonne: india is one of the
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nations hit hardest by global supply chain struggles, we will speak with bnp paribas about how that has affected them. david: this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: we are trying to get something you can -- is it about the federal reserve, i've got members looking at perhaps frontloading with rates. people like bullard getting more aggressive, how does that play out and affect the dollar, which has consequences for the whole
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yemen of the region? -- gamut of the region? yvonne: we have got the minutes coming out later this week. sue trinh, from manulife investments joins us from singapore, we are seeing signs of risk appetite coming back in the region and beyond. do you think any of this lasts in any way? sue: i would say it is a pretty tentative return to risk appetite. what we're seeing more broadly is investors are shifting their concerns away from high inflation and now to weaker growth dynamics. with inflation likely to remain at sticky levels, that rings of stagflation, and historically, it is a challenging environment
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for asset environments. for allocation, the advice is to go to markets that offer some stagflation protection, or access defensive growth. within asia, some markets that stuck out, i would suggest philippines. singapore is another. rishaad: in those countries we mentioned, what is the transmission mechanism first stagflation, and is a recession or a deep slowdown more likely to be on the cards? sue: when we talk about stagflationary dynamics, specifically the ones emanating from the ukraine war, we are looking to seek shelter from that negative demand shock by focusing on economies that are net food and energy exporters and are less reliant on foreign capital. and that have the policy space
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to christian the downside. we are looking to seek shelter from the negative supply shock by seeking out those economies with relatively lower rates for food and energy in their cpi baskets, as well as a lower share of food and energy in their import baskets. when we put that together, we find that consistently looks like the likes of malaysia, singapore, and i would add indonesia, australia and new zealand as the ones that screamed well for those criteria. yvonne: the bigger factor remains the dollar, anytime we have dollar strength, everything sells off, vice versa as well. do you see that there are drivers that provide more upward risk for the dollar, or is it still overvalued at this point? sue: it's important to distinguish between the short and the long-term. some of these structural factors
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we highlighted in our note friday suggest upside risk to the u.s. dollar is likely to continue, that is of relevance to the likes of dollar-cnh. first, our broader measures of global annual liquidity growth which increases the wheels of risk appetite, as well as global growth, has flashed alarm bells since june 2021 which is consistent with an increased dollar funding shortage, id increased dollar demand. and that means even larger dollar funding strength going forward, especially to those entities that need u.s. dollars the most. some other macro factors and rate differentials are in the dollar's favor, too. rishaad: talking about the implications of weaponizing the
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dollar, how does the reduction of the fed balance sheet, $3 billion in the next three years, affect liquidity in those countries which need dollar funding? sue: it impacts the dollar liquidity immensely. the federal reserve is the only central bank that cannot print quote-unquote u.s. dollars, their mobile of that printing or liquidity, is very consequential. we see that with metrics going downtown. the messaging shows no proclivity to pivot dovishly as the market is hoping for. yvonne: i guess there are some silver linings in china, whether it is how did they emerge out of this lockdown in shanghai, with
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better encouragement when it comes to the tech sector as well, do you think we have reached the bottom in china? sue: our view with china is economic growth is likely to continue trending lower. we are not saying evidence of reaching a near-term inflection point with factors that will continue to weigh on chinese growth. it has continued exposure to supply shortage of those goods in short supply, currently food and energy. they continued costs of covid zero are continuing to stack up. we don't see any loosening up until at least the party congress in november. the property sector continues to show signs of deterioration, or a lack of inflection there. and global consumption patterns continue to normalize toward services, away from the goods
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that china produces and exports. rishaad: sue trinh therefrom manulife investment. india with a fiscal package, that and more. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: president biden now in japan after weekend talks with south korea's new president, with north korea and the russian war featuring high on the agenda. today he is meeting with the japanese prime minister. japan is ready to increase military spending. rishaad: that is a big deal. or reaction, our north asia correspondent is with us.
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geopolitics economic -- overshadowing biden's economic plans for the rregion. >> you can put economic and global -- geopolitical issues under the umbrella of security. the indo pacific framework which biden is unveiling to kishida and allies is his blueprint for greater economic engagement. but included in that is supply resilience and security. that was a large part of his weekend trip to south korea where they did talk about russia, japan, china, as well as north korea. he also went out to samsung, and that was not a coincidence. this is what joe biden had to say about securing chip supply chain's. >> the global semiconductor
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shortage has caused a shortfall in consumer goods, especially automobiles. and is contributing to higher prices around the world. now putin's unprovoked war has further spotlighted the need to secure our supply chains so our economy and national security are not dependent on countries that do not share our values. >> now the focus has shifted to japan, kishida and biden are meeting right now. yvonne: china is watching, they had harsh words to say about his trip. >> they are watching the australia election. with today anthony albanese becoming prime minister. he blew out immediately to the quad. state media has been putting out comments. the foreign minister of china
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essentially dismissed it as doomed to fail. the trump administration pulled the united states out of the tpp. some in the united states say this new iepf does not weight up to the same levels because it does not reduce tariffs. it could get into that area too because last week 50 u.s. senators signed on and said taiwan should be part of iepf. yvonne: broadcom is in talks to buy vmware, the chipmaker has been looking for a big acquisition. vmware has a market val
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ofu -- value of $40 billion. didi will be listed new york. -- dlist in new york. it will clear the way for a sheriff lott in hong kong. state media reports most of the recruits would be based in lin ggan where other workers are located. the number of workers will be pertaining to software engineering. rishaad: we've got shares of chinese health care companies into monkeypox tests surging today. we saw alarms around the world, which has been really affected by the last for years with covid.
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authorities in the u.s. saying smallpox vaccines and antivirals can be used to fight this virus. companies like beijing biologics on the way up. this is markets overall. yvonne: i am not ready for this again, another pandemic potentially. it really is hong kong into china dragging things lower. jakarta and singapore now falling into red territory. it really has come down to the beijing situation and the threat of a lockdown there. dollar seems to be on retreat, which is boating well -- boding we so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings,
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yvonne: outside of beijing right
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now, 99 cases on sunday, the highest we have seen in this outbreak in the capital. the csi 300 lower by 1% as we head into lunch break. rishaad: the city goes into lockdown, authorities trying to stamp out community spread. at the moment, tech is weak again. the csi 300 is 1% to the downside too as we had to the lunch break. cny in focus, 6.8 percent up at the moment against the dollar. and potentially negative sentiment with regards to that situation in beijing. let's talk about what's happening elsewhere, let's get the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. with more now on the chinese capital. >> a record number of covid
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cases reviving concern authorities may impose a lockdown. 99 due infections were announced sunday, up from 61 a day before. with the tally hovering around 50 cases each 24 hour period. the government says the situation is still severe and complicated, and the capital is in a critical time. apec trade ministers meeting in bangkok failed to issue a joint statement after tit-for-tat walkouts on the u.s. and russia. the russian delegation boycotted a presentation by a u.s. official. they authorize the host thailand to make a statement. president biden is warning about the growing monkeypox outbreak after two cases were confirmed in the u.s. the rare cousin of the smallpox is traditionally confined to regions in africa.
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the spread of the virus could be consequential, and his advisers are working on a response. infant formula will arrive in u.s. stores as early as this week. they delivered 32 ilion tons from europe as part of an emergency program. the supply chain shortage worsened when the biggest manufacturer abbott issued a voluntary recall after four infants llp. man city wins the sixth english premier league title in 11 seasons. city scored three goals in five minutes after trailing 2-0 at home. is the first time they have secured the title in front of their own fans. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg, yvonne? yvonne: some lines crossing the
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bloomberg from the bank of russia saying they are going to start buying the currency. we are around five-year high for the ruble right now. this is since the ukraine war, it actually has left the ruble 20% stronger than before. this is because exporters are heeding the call of what putin wants, to pay in rubles when it comes to buying energy. at this point, that is what is driving volumes so badly here. rishaad: even with that, and you don't get that, do you? let's move to elections and have a look at what happened over the weekend with australians voting for a new government and vowing to end decades of an action by one of the world's highest per capita emitters.
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we are joined by david, a remarkable defeat for the government, how did this come to pass, governments tend to lose elections rather than oppositions nago them, but how much has he won by, and will we have a majority in labor or will he be seeking the help of the greens? >> it will be a majority, a surprisingly narrow majority. elections are complicated in australia. i think labor can carry a majority, anthony has been sworn in as prime minister at this point. traditionally, an incoming government will tend to have 80 to 90 seats in the 150 c parliamentary house. he is likely to have less, at about the 70 or 78 level. which is surprisingly weak.
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the previous government with a catastrophic loss, they will likely have the lowest share of parliament is the 40's. it is the voters who have been the victors in many ways. yvonne: and this was seen as a victory for climate change, that was the number one issue of the campaign, do you see the politics of that changing australia as a result? david: i think that's absolutely right. it has been an issue suppressed by the major parties because they are cross pressured on this issue. they have mining wings who don't want any reduction in coal mining, and urban wings who want action on climate change as a lot of other similar developed countries around the world read so they have conspired to keep that issue fairly low in the public debate the victory is
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showing that electorates have had enough of that. it looks like these independence won't hold the balance of power in this parliament, possibly in a subsequent one they might. they won't have much formal power. getting that issue on the agenda and doing something is going to be a lot more challenging. rishaad: what about this quite a meeting yesterday, what does this mean in terms of policy? does it move the dial with regards to that because foreign policy was [indiscernible] given the growing rift with beijing. >> early on it looked like it was going to be a car key elet ction, the government was running lines treating albanese as a sort of manchurian candidate that had the backing of beijing.
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that did not seem to work as an election line. we have seen things like these increasing close ties between china and the solomon islands, which is causing concern for australia which regards that country as being in its backyard. both parties have a similar outlook, but we will probably see a slight turning down of the more strident anti-beijing rhetoric we soften from the current government. it does not change beijing's direction in this foreign policy relationship. i think it will remain a fairly uneasy relationship. yvonne: our bloomberg opinion columnist on the outcome of this australian election. he talked about climate change and the moves in the ruble, the energy market is looking interesting, global power grids are going to face quite a difficult test, when you have electricity generation strangling.
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india focusing on power shortages, the heatwave there, and the like. rishaad: which is being blamed on climate change. sri lanka also with scorching temperatures. it is war, sanctions, all of that affecting the supply and demand dynamic. and extreme weather, also coming off of an economic rebound from covid, which has boosted power demand. a lot of factors working together and perhaps never happened before, but you get these, and i suppose it is a hard thing. six texas power plants bailing earlier this month as well. yvonne: just the global implications of all this. we're also tracking moves in india at the open. we are watching the india 10-year yield continue its rise, we are at 7.39%, this as you see bond traders [indiscernible]
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we will see how this all plays out. india is going to lose about a trillion rupees in revenues per year due to this cut aimed at lighting inflation -- fighting inflation as they tried to bring down pump prices. rishaad: just getting the knife as it were here as well. let's talk about how expensive it will be. we will be speaking to bnp part of about their outlook for indian equities. and we can anticipate earnings that will rattle investors' nerves, we have got that story with abhiram eleswarapu next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: that is india's capital, 32 celsius expected is the maximum. markets are looking flat right now, a lot of moving parts in india given the big announcement. yvonne: bond markets are selling
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off, announcing tax cuts on fuels and subsidies for crop nutrients to tackle mounting inflationary pressures. let's go to our south asia economy editor, walk us through what we learned saturday, and how effective are these measures in easing inflation? ruchi: the government hopes these measures will be helpful. when we do speak to economists, they say as far as inflation is concerned, we will see just a minor blip in the headline inflation numbers which have already surpassed the rbi's target reading up 6% for the last four months. that was one reason we saw the government announcing measures over the weekend. this is certainly not going to stop the rbis from raising rates. that is what economists are telling us. the measures that have been announced over the weekend which includes reducing the excise
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duties on both petrol and diesel will cost the central exchequer, is what economists are penciling in at the moment. this is going to expand the government's fiscal deficit as well. many are saying there is a good possibility we will see the fiscal deficit rise as much as 30 to 40 basis points, against the target of 6.4% set out by new delhi. rishaad: fiscal slippage, what is the budget deficit now? is that target in tatters? ruchi: that's what i was saying, rishaad. it looks like these government measures will cost them around 4 lakh rupees, if we look at the
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bounce in tax collections both on the indirect and direct tax front, that will offset some of these bending the government intends on doing. which leaves us with a gap of 2 lakh rupees, which means a slippage of close to 30 to 40 basis points. we have yet to hear from the finance ministry on the same, but it looks like the target that was set out in the indian budget of 6.4% is certainly in jeopardy. rishaad: that is our south asia economy editor. let's take a look at corporate india, more than half of the top 100 companies reportedly missing estimates. investors are concerned about easing liquidity going away. it is hard to be optimistic. abhiram eleswarapu, the bnp
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paribas head of indian equity, what is your take away from earnings not just missing, but forward guidance? abhiram: you are right, about 50% of companies have missed earnings. but they did pretty well to be clear. i do not think the entire impact of inflation was reported in this order. -- quarter. a lot of companies with their price increases towards the end of the quarter. next quarter is when you will see the full impact of cost inflation. beyond that, we think it will peak around the september timeframe. that is when you will probably not see any impact on demand. we have not seen any changes to consist earnings estimates. i. they could be a downside risk to those estimates because of the results we have seen so far. rishaad: in other parts of the
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region, we are seeing catch up demand, does india have that issue as well? perhaps looking into the second half of the year, we do see a bit of a slowdown, perhaps doing too much in terms of monetary policy could be counterproductive. abhiram: there is very little one can do in monetary policy. from the rbis perspective, they probably will have to follow what other central banks are doing, including the fed. all that is why the announcements over the weekend around fiscal stimulus are important. that is the way you provide the most stimulus to the consumer, allowing them to spend the subsidy of the weekend, would mean fuel costs will fall 7 to 8
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%. they could also be good for cement and other companies. it is important, and the government is doing what it can to cushion that impact. yvonne: is that the equity strategy move forward, we have the domestic side and earnings still held up well, does that look misplaced to you? abhiram: i think the whole narrative has changed. we started off the year aching about -- thinking about moderate inflation, and that would be good for earnings. but that has shifted to persistent inflation. i think earnings will fall from here. the consensus has not changed year to date, and because of that, i see an impact as we go along, maybe next couple months or so.
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the second bigger impact could be coming from central banks. interest rates are rising, the fed is increasing, that will have an impact on valuations. but qt in the second half is something no one is talking about as much. i think that will have a significant impact on earnings as well. indian valuations today are at about 10 or 15% above historic levels. india has outperformed year to date compared to the u.s. or other emerging markets. those are the two sources of risk for the next six months or so. yvonne: jp morgan saying zero return from the nifty this year, bank of america lowering their target as well. have you had to adjust where things are going to end up by year-end? abhiram: we have been to target. i think the risks are rising.
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it would be a good suggestion to investors to stay away from equities. institutional investors can only hold a certain amount of cash. one strategy is to look for cash-rich companies in india. you can find such companies amidst media, and even some government-owned companies. the second way to think of this is companies that can pass on costs. what comes to mind is health care. what surprises this quarter are the telecoms, which took price increases of 10 to 15%, and yet have not lost subscribers. that tells us that telecoms are doing more than consumer staples. these are two areas, and
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probably financials, because the sector sold off. rishaad: abhiram, what to entirely avoid, very quickly? abhiram: one thing to avoid for now is consumer discretionary, because costs are rising and prices will have to and reese. i expect some impacts toward the second half of the year. yvonne: thank you so much for joining us, abhiram eleswarapu, bnp paribas head of india equity. let's check in with markets that have just opened right now. we continue to see more downside. we are pretty flat on the sensex and nifty right now. watching steel dropping. we are also watching the on market selloff given the tax
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cuts. but the borrowing costs and concerns are roiling the bond market today. tata steel down 10% this morning. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: you are back with
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bloomberg markets as we have a look at the headlines. futures contracts are on the way up, lending support to regional equities in this part of the world, but not for the hang seng or shanghai composite. the hang seng down by nearly 2% now. teachers there in the green. is this flash headlines, -- airbus is optimistic even as the war and china covid lockdowns way down on sales. they had a slow couple of years for their newest jet model. almost all work travel was curtailed. they have five corporate jet orders so far in 2022. the saudi arabia wealth fund, wth alwalweed retaining a 17%
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share while the remaining shares will be listed on the bourse. siemens energy will offer $4.3 billion to shares in gamesa wind, all part of the efforts to turn around the spanish wind turbine maker. they are expecting the deal to be completed in the second half of this year. they already own 67% of gamesa. amazon is looking to sublet 10 million square feet of space and could and more leases with landlords, now that the pandemic shopping era has faded. yvonne: let's take a look at indian markets again. needed gains at the open up sens ex and nifty.
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we are watching the india 10-year yield. we are at 7.36, on the back of india doubling down on their inflation fight with this $26 billion package. the concerns about fiscal slippage and rising borrowing costs weighing on the equity market today. rishaad: the hang seng is down 1.9%. who is dragging it down? it's the usual names there. tech being hit today by didi, expected to secure a blessing to delist in new york, ending on 11 month ordeal that wiped billions off of its market value. this concern about delisting is affecting stocks which are already listed in new york. didi will be listing in hong
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kong. the overall market with hong kong at the top, csi is on lunch break, and the nikkei 225 putt ing on about .6%. usual suspects here, fed, supply chain bottlenecks. yvonne: with the hsi getting close to 2% losses. the smic were added to this revamp of the hsi as well. the dollar software here, that is helping the fx side, but the situation in beijing certainly one to watch. this is bloomberg. ♪ morning security briefing—make that two. share that link. send that contract. see what's trending. check the traffic on your network,
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