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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  May 23, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> there is of pervasive fog of negative sentiment out there. >> when every single headline is negative, it's time to buy. >> i still think the dollar is
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going to be king in this sort of environment. >> the earnings are superpowerful and stocks are cheap at this point. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. from the world economic forum in davos, a very different davos this year in may, not in january. i have been stunned at the changes. i did not expect the difference in energy, the ballet of beautiful may morning. lisa: it's very different from tripping over the ice and dealing with snow and freezing. it's a very different moment in wall street. on the heels of the pandemic, a quieter davos one that is also more serious and focused. tom: you brought it up earlier. it's not a davos of catharsis out there or emotion.
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it's the slog in interest rates and the worries about recession. lisa: and a changed geopolitical landscape to highlight the fact that russia is not here and all that entails. what does it mean to be globalized in a world where people are trying to find how to get things quickly and reliably despite some of the disruptions? tom: -- was walking by the and he was deglobalized. we will take a quick look at markets. lisa: christine lagarde came out in a note and basically was saying that she sees getting to eroding the negative yielding policies by the end of september and actually really taking a more hawkish tone which is
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giving a bit of a lift. tom: 10 year yield, 2.3% as well. brent crude resilient. that gets my attention in global price. the food crisis is front and center. lisa: the food crisis as well as how we are dealing with climate change issues at a time where gas and oil has new prominence and people seem to be putting aside the eft. we are going to be speaking with john kerry. the u.s. special climate ongoing and former u.s. secretary of state also the senator from massachusetts. joseph stiglitz will be talking about globalized or deglobalize. columbia university professor and nobel laureate will be joining us in this hour. david rubenstein, carlyle group co-chair and co-founder and host
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of peer-to-peer conversations. right now the conversation really some up can we get a reprieve from the seventh straight week of decline? is what we are seeing this morning a head fake or the start of a by the dip? tom: it's the market coverage of equities bonds, currencies bonds. rebecca patterson has dealt in all those areas and culminated with bridgewater where she is chief investment strategist. our prince and daily on speaking terms? what's the latest meetings like in terms of the volatility we are seeing, the complexities and nuances? what is the tone in your meetings as you assess. >> there is so much changing now
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structurally as well as cyclically. there's a lot of people saying where we going. if we do deglobalize or regionalized, what does that look like as well as the short-term worries over can the fed tightening enough to get inflation back down to its target. a lot of uncertainty if i had to sum it up. lisa: how do you determine whether moves like what we are seeing is a head fake or not? >> we don't trade daily wiggles in the market. we take a step back and say what's discounted. a lot has changed since the beginning of the year. the biggest change has been discounted tightening and we have seen that flow through and we have seen the equity to -- equity decline. you haven't seen a major change in expected earnings growth. that is the thing we are
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watching. if the fed continues to tighten to try to reduce demand to get inflation under control i would expect to see that flow through into a discounted growth. lisa: for years people were saying that markets were in even if the economy was not. are we heading into the opposite where we see markets led the hind an economy that continues to be strong? >> that has been our view and continues to be our view. we are in a situation where the nominal economy is likely to outperform financial markets fairly substantially. that is mainly a function of the policy reaction we got during the pandemic. all the fiscal and monetary stimulus that left households wealthier than before the pandemic, corporate balance
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sheets stronger than before the pandemic. it gives them a cushion to withstand the tightening so it is going to feed through to markets. that starting strong point for the economy means financial assets could underperform. tom: you've got at bridgewater your fancy kitchen. they have the whole subzero thing. >> look who's talking. bloomberg, hello. tom: you have a great pressure cooker. the only reason they hired you is the steam coming out of the cattle is the currency market. to me the conundrum here and you beautifully described the fiscal impulse. what releases the pressure is dollar dynamics. what kind of pressures will we see? >> the most important thing to understand about the dollar right now is how quickly our external need for foreign capital is increasing. if you go on your bloomberg page
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, are timely estimate suggests that's closer to five or 6% of gdp. for the dollar to stay supported we need to continue getting enough capital to offset that. the dollar we think is vulnerable on a cyclical basis and a structural basis. tom: if we get a twin deficit, do you link those together mathematically or philosophically? are they separate events? >> they are mathematically linked. as you know well. you are being humble. tom: this is a pro surveillance tip. don't ask a question unless you know the answer. it's just like judge judy. continue. >> the balance of payments is
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what i'm focused on relatively more. that financing need -- if interest rates continue to be so much more attractive than maybe the u.s. does continue to hold up for the dollar. but it's a question mark. tom: where does the money go? >> japanese equities are outperforming u.s. equities. some emerging-market equities are outflowing. it is looking for opportunities where valuations are a lot less demanding. lisa: how high do treasury yields have to go to support the dollar?
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>> we try to understand all the different players in every market. when we look at u.s. bond market today, the fed slipping from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening is obviously very significant. the big player that we think suggests more upside for bond yields are banks. so i year ago you had a ton of deposits coming in and banks are putting that into bonds. the curve is flatter. there is less banks buying bonds to hold down the yield. when we look at who is going to buy those bonds, we still see a supply demand and balance. i don't know what the magic number is, but we still have further to go on the upside. tom: this is within the perfect
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how do you affect an interest rate parity strategy, a sophisticated hedge if you will even rates we've never seen before? >> what's so interesting to me about all of this is when we think about how most investors in the world are positioned for the last one or two decades, they have been biased towards rising growth and fallen inflation. it worked great until now. and the world has gone upside down. so now we have fallen growth and rising inflation.
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we have seen the portfolio hit. the balance for growth and inflation. even if bond yields are going up, you have balance in other parts of the portfolio. namely commodities and other inflation sensitive assets. so they tend to hold a that are through the cycles. tom: if they let me come back to new york, will you come back and finish this discussion? rebecca patterson, just brilliant. lisa: maybe we won't go back to new york. we could work remote. tom: we have much more coming up including a conversation with former secretary of state. john kerry, special presidential envoy for climate for president biden. on radio and television, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> news from around the world. i'm ready could cooped up. the white house is walking back president bidens comments on
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taiwan. that appeared to break the long-standing u.s. policy of so-called strategic ambiguity. the president said it simply meant provide equipment to taiwan, not send troops. a dozen indo pacific countries will join the u.s. in a sweeping economic initiative. the goal is to counter china's influence in the region. the new framework doesn't include any tariff reductions. the labor parties premised are defeated scott morrison in an election held on saturday. he's promising a reduction of climate change, greater gender equality and improved wage growth. pfizer and biontech say there vaccine was highly effective and prompted a strong immune response in children under five.
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that's likely to pave the way for toddlers and infants to get immunized. s3 does regimen was 80% effective in children aged six months to four years old. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ready could this is bloomberg. -- i'm rich to could grouped up. -- ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> there is no doubt we face serious global challenges right now. inflation first and foremost among them. but there's also no doubt that the united states is in a better position than any other major country around the world to address inflation without giving up all the economic gains that we've had and that's because of the strength of our recovery.
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tom: national economic council director on the themes of the moment. we welcome all of you on radio and television. lisa abramowicz and myself. jon ferro is on assignment. right now, we've got a lot of things to speak of in a one hour conversation. john kerry, your special climate envoy and former u.s. secretary of state and whatever your politics, he is someone who has honed our political debate of this nation for decades. you were up at st. paul's in concord, new hampshire a few years back. debate and discussion was eaten into you, wasn't it? >> we had a terrific tradition of back-and-forth, socratic. tom: it was a really important tradition back then. what happened to america where we walked away from the niceties of debate?
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>> the united states senate used to be the greatest deliberative body in the world. and obviously a lot of people are anxious about where the deliberation is today. it has changed. it's really changed. in the 1990's our politics change. it became far angrier, far more intense, far more personal. you remember the discussions of politics of personal destruction. now we have a lot of angry people who are appropriately angry on either side of the aisle. right, left. and they just don't feel the government is delivering to them and we have to change that. lisa: how does the u.s. lead with such disunity at home? >> i think president biden is showing how you lead right now. he's in asia. he has been leading on global climate change around the world. he put america -- the united
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states back into the paris agreement. helped make glasgow a success. i think people understand that we had four difficult years. the country decided that was an aberration and elected president biden. now we are in the busy building back process. i think we have made a lot of progress in the last year. tom: the helicopter flying over says gop on the side of it. senator kerry, i want to talk to you about climate. i was blown away a number of years ago with the bank of america people. you are not another face talking climate. you are not another celeb talking climate. you have actually leaned over the desk in boston and set of got to learn the math. -- said i've got to learn the math.
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what is your strategy to sustain our focus on climate change given the to mold is measured by the price of coal? >> president biden has determined that we are going to get ready for the next meeting by trying to raise ambition around the world we are very busy right now working with specific countries. indonesia, vietnam, south africa, india. to bring the finance and the technology to help them be able to deploy to meet the goals of the glasgow paris agreement. but in addition to that, we have to work to get the trillions of dollars deployed. this is going to cost literally trillions of dollars. in order to affect the transition. in the way that we can do that is by bringing various players to the table. philanthropy.
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so you have people taking first risk. people who are de-risking the investment. there are a lot of folks doing that. we have companies that are now signing up. on wednesday we will be making a major announcement with bill gates and marc benioff of salesforce. ceos who are directing their companies to become first movers. they are creating demand in the marketplace. volvo is going to be green steel. cement. the largest cement dealer in the world is producing green cement. there's just a whole range of things in carbon removal. lisa: senator, we only have a couple minutes left. i want to get your cents on gas. you have talked about central to
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a greener future. you're hoping to transition away from that. how do you dovetail the now into the future? >> i think it's critical that lending institutions that have a vast amount of capital involved begin to demand more from that industry. it is appropriate i think to have a gas transition for some period of time while you bring technology to scale that is going to change altogether what we are doing. enormous amount of research right now. frankly there's about a trillion dollars of venture capital already moving toward these new technologies. green hydrogen, longer battery storage. there are things that are going to just change the way as this is due business and that's going to be part of this revolution. i think we are looking at the
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largest economic opportunity and transformation since the industrial revolution and this will be bigger because every nation in the world is going to have to move to a clean new energy economy and future. tom: i want to center back to the future of the democratic party. what we have seen is the centrist joe biden and you as a centrist john kerry overrun by a rigid progressive or liberal wing of the democratic party. what is your counsel as they may be lose the house, maybe lose the senate. who knows with the white house. but what is the council you have to liberals who will not bend as you have spent a career bending? >> i like to think i haven't always been. i find a compromise where you can and you need to. but you have to be reasonable obviously. the old saying in washington,
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don't let the perfect become the enemy of the good. you have to find the compromise. that's the nature of legislating. if you decide you want to be a legislator, do that. but i'm not in the politics of the back-and-forth now. i'm trying to bring people together to understand that this crisis is existential, doesn't have a political label, it's universal. it's not a bilateral issue between china and the united states. it is existential for everybody on the planet and we need to be smarter about coming to solutions. the best way you get there is through earning an election but then also compromising to find a path forward. tom: u.s. special presidential envoy for climate. we have much more coming up including a conversation. stay with us.
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tom: from the meetings of the world economic forum in davos,
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switzerland, we welcome all of you. just a glorious first day here. would you hike 20 miles? lisa: not today, but yesterday i had a good time. tom: jon ferro on assignment, as they say. he's in capri again. we wish him well. right now a quick that a check of markets doing better than expected. that in your yield up five basis points to 2.83%. brent crude with a $113 trading range, but a more constructive market. for jon ferro we do the dow jones industrial average. joining me is romaine bostick in new york. romaine: keep an eye on the market. you talk about constructive right now we are seeing here in the premarket. we do have a pretty decent rally. volume is relatively light in the premarket, but it's a broad-based rally provided some
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potential upside. keep a mind jp morgan has released a presentation on its website that shows the company increasing its outlook for net interest income. the shares up about 1.5% on the day. even some of the tech companies are getting on the action today. not by much, but you have apple, or soft, all of that. elsewhere, keep an eye on what is happening in the software space. according to people familiar with the matter that bloomberg news has spoken to, broadcom is said to be making a bid for vmware. this is a big deal, he chipmaker buying a software company. broadcom has dabbled in this space before with the purchase of symantec's enterprise business. broadcom shares down about 5% on the day and vmware up about 22%
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in the premarket. siga technologies also moving. these companies that make antiviral drugs, a lot of talk right now. those shares up about 26%. tom: thank you so much. "the close" this afternoon as well, a more constructive market. this is an important conversation. each and every year at davos, there is someone who owns the valley. usually it is some rockstar that shows up by helicopter or maybe some famous model that i don't know their name. you know, someone like that. this year's rockstar is joseph stiglitz, the nobel winner for the mysteries of information. someone at columbia who has talked and written about our discontents. d with the challenges of globalization and others, truly
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joe stiglitz is the attendee this year at davos. if you wrote globalization and its discontents today, what would be different? joseph: i think i was mostly focused on discontent in the south, and needs of upland countries -- the developing countries and emerging markets. since then we have had globalization of global discontent. i think part of the reason is that we have seen that globalization has left us in the united states unprepared for covid-19. we were not able to produce even simple things like face masks, protective gear, complicated things, and now this broader discontent of globalization that i talk about with emerging markets in developing countries
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is showing up in a peculiar way in the lack of support for the west, for the united states and europe and other democracies in our position against russia's invasion of ukraine. lisa: before we get to that, is the inflation we are seeing now a symptom of these crises, whether it is russia and the war in ukraine or the lockdowns in china? or is it just exasperation of a deglobalization or re-globalization in a new form that people have not fully understood yet? joseph: the disturbances are to a large extent the same kind of shortsightedness, failure of markets to attend to risk adequately that we saw in the 2008 crisis. i wrote my book "making globalization work" that it was extraordinarily risky for
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germany to become dependent on russian gas. it was so clear back then that russia was not a reliable trade partner. why would you put all of your money, all of your eggs in that basket? and yet germany did, europe did, and part of what we are seeing now, because we did not respond to climate change, senator kerry a few minutes ago talking about this which should have moved to renewable energy, your realizing it was more reliable than political dictators. lisa: fast-forward today, and the policies we are implementing to curb russia and hamper them in their advance in ukraine, or whether it comes to tariffs in china, what are we getting wrong? joseph: i think we are not getting enough solidarity. we are asking a few countries that may have made mistakes in
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the past, but now we have to have solidarity. we are fighting a war right now. it is a global war. it is a war to preserve the international rule of law, and yet we are asking some of the poorest countries to bear a lot of the price in terms of higher food prices. they may starve. we are not doing anything about the debt crisis. in terms of managing a global alliance, we are failing. tom: you came out of gary, indiana or get it is flat on its back like no other city in the country. you talk about the initiatives forward where the fancy people may be ought to pay attention to the middle class. how in this new america do we get the elites to join with the middle class like they did when you and i grew up? joseph: i think we all need to be aware our democracy is at
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risk, and our economic system is at risk. so if we don't get that kind of solidarity, who knows where things will go? you talked a little bit before about inflation. it is really hurting the people at the bottom and the middle enormously. there are oil companies making billions of dollars. tom: -- fought this battle in 1976. the bottom line is the elites have forgotten the middle class across the entire political persuasion. how do we reengage and build a trust with the middle class in america given the present shocks here in happy valley? joseph: i think that we have to remind them, as i did in the
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article i wrote 11 years ago of the 1% for the 1% and by the 1%, part of the message of that article in "vanity fair" was to say that it is in your own self-interest to show more solidarity because if you don't come of this whole system is going to fray apart. tom: this is important, really important given the years that you and rogoff were here on stage. they haven't gotten along for years. it is like the kardashians. here's the heart of the matter. we have compensation structures in america where the middle class was attached to the elites, and then we change that to where the elites are making more money than god and the middle class is left behind. to me, that was a tipping point. lisa: this has been a tipping point, and here we are with a new tipping point of inflation. do you think it is more important to get inflation under control at this moment then to worry about or avoid some sort of downturn, which seems to be
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the fed's conundrum? joseph: raising interest rates is not going to solve the problem of inflation. it is not going to create more food. it is going to make it more difficult because you aren't going to be able to make the investment. what you do is you have supply-side interventions. one of the things president biden tried to do is to have more care for children, and that would mean more women in the labor force. that releases one of the constraints, labor supply. we used to have surpluses of food in the united states. we can get those back. lisa: how do you get this in a sensitive way? joseph: i think we can do a lot more than we are doing. raising interest rates is not going to be the solution in any time, so at least try to do everything we can globally to increase the supply.
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it is going to do more on dealing with the problem. tom: your heated rhetoric melted all the snow in the valley. let's go scoop jackson on you, the giant from washington state. can you as a raging democrat supporting fiscal rebuilding of our defense and of our navy to push against china and the shock of putin and russia? joseph: i think we can have support defense. clearly putin has shown we need defense. much of what we spend is weapons that don't work against enemies that don't exist, so if we take our current spending on defense and re-examine it, we are so much back in the 20th century, the latter half of the 20th century. we are in a world of cyber warfare, of all kinds of new forms of workfare. we need to adapt our military
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expenditure. i think if we did that, we don't have to spend or on more and more. we have to spend smarter and smarter. tom: we are out of time. , professor from columbia university. a reading of "globalization and its discontent" is a good place to start on a study of economics. that is where you can get started with stiglitz 101. coming up, the television star david rubenstein. stay with us from the world economic forum in davos. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden's has he will review trump era tariffs imposed on china. that red to a -- that led to a rally in the offshore yuan.
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the president has come under pressure from some lawmakers and economists and the u.s. chamber of commerce to reduce or eliminate them. president biden is seeking to reassure americans about the current monkeypox out. at a news conference in tokyo, the president said it was unlikely to cause a pandemic on the scale of the coronavirus. he said the u.s. has enough smallpox vaccine stockpiled to deal with the outbreak. ukraine's president said russia's economy should be shut off from the world and invited global investors to shift their resources into ukraine to help rebuild the country. in a video address to the rota, forum, dusty world economic forum, -- the world economic forum. police are searching for a man who shot and killed a goldman sachs employee on a subway train. daniel in recast is 48 and -- daniel henrik as -- daniel henriquez was 48 and worked for goldman sachs.
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hsbc has reportedly suspended an executive after he criticized the finance industry for worrying too much about climate change. the bank is conducting an internal investigation into stuart kirk's remarks, the head of responsible investment for hsbc's asset management unit. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is very clear that people are in risk off mode, but our view is that there will not be a recession this year, no next year. there will be a slowdown. our house view for global gdp is 2.9% for next year. tom: the chief executive officer
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of a bank in switzerland, credit suisse. thomas gottstein is not any risk off mode. looking at his bank and looking at a financial system beleaguered right now. jon ferro is in capri, which is a beautiful thing. what have we learned so far? i think it has been a strong start. lisa: i think the churn of uncertainty. trying to solve problems at a moment when we just saw the longest streak of lock -- of losses in the market going back to 2001. how do we pivot in a time of rising inflation? tom: let's dive into conversation with someone who has real world leadership and quality conversations. david rubenstein, you know him of bloomberg television. he's on the board of the world economic forum, and i think owns three cantons in switzerland. wonderful to have you today. is it better in the summer the winter? david: it is a lot easier to get around in the summertime, and
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you don't have to worry about falling down. i know you had a little slip, but you are ok, right? tom: doing fine. let us talk about what underpins every transaction at carlisle, every transaction for president biden, and that is a financial system where it is priced down, yield up. if i take the lehman index, the bloomberg total return aggregate index, essentially we have never seen this. how does the financial system adapt to such losses in bonds? david: the financial system will adapt. it always does. markets correct and the markets will correct now. i think we had a time of enormous italy and's -- enormous bullion's -- enormous ebulience in the markets. i would say interest rates are going to come up probably put us
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into what someone in the carter administration used to call a banana. he did not want to use the word recession, so carter said use some other word, and the inflation advisor said we might be in a banana. so i don't want to say we are in a recession. i don't know if we are in a banana, but it is something close between a recession and a banana. lisa: so biden should have said banana because you think that is the more realistic outcome. david: there are many different definitions of recession, so i don't want to be quoted saying we are in a recession. nobody really knows for sure. but clearly the economy is not as robust as the last couple of years, in part because of covid, and part because of the war in ukraine, in part because interest rates are going up again. so it is not a great economic environment. on the other hand, prices have come down to the point where there are some beleaguered bargains now, and i think a lot of people that buy at the bottom are looking pretty happy now. lisa: do using this is a bottoming out that you see? from the conversations you are having, is it more optimism
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about investing than pessimism about the recession or banana? david: it depends. if you owned a lot of these assets and they have gone down, you are not so optimistic. but if you don't on those assets and you now have fresh capital to invest, it is better than it was a while ago. if you own assets, the ones you own may not be worth as much come but you don't have to sell at these prices. but people are going to make money buying at these prices because prices are pretty low relative to where they have been. tom: but to another time and place, are we going to see the elites do a national roll up of our assets while with inflation, the middle class is flat on their back? to be specific, blackstone taking the heat, but private equity, private money is going after residential housing as a sound investment. there is a raging debate about that. is this a shell game of the elites, where the middle class beleaguered does not get to put us debate?
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david: first of all, blackstone and carlyle and other firms basically resent pension funds, which are teachers, firemen, policemen, so it is not exactly the elites buying it for themselves. they are buying it for pension funds. secondly, the economy is much different than andrew mellon's time, so it is a much bigger economy and it is a global economy. it was not andrew mellon was secretary of treasury. lisa: meanwhile, i do wonder whether you think that davos still has the same relevancy that winsted. david: devil's i think -- davos i think is relevant because people are still coming. when you can go in one place and see the ceos and heads of state of semi-different places, it is a good thing. it is very convenient. if i want to see some of the people here, i would have to spend six months going around in meeting all of these people. now i can meet the medical of days. are we going to solve all the problems in the world? probably not. but i don't see anyone who comes here and says i wish i was
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somewhere else. people think it is a good chance to meet other people, and because we have been in the covid environment for so long, some of these people have not been seen by others for three or four years in person. david: robert torments -- tom: robert hormats a couple of days ago was heated about the rebuild of the pacific rim. what can private capital do to assist our government in projecting a new american vision there? i think of the philippines and other large pools of capital. don't we assist our nation by projecting and advancing capital to the bits vickram? -- to the pacific rim? david: we do, and we are. corporations are investing enormous amount of money in asia. it is an incredibly different world. we are not pulling back dramatically. i think investment in china is pulling back a bit because of some of their regulatory concerns, and the economic concerns and covid, but money is
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flowing into other countries. india is a good example, japan is a good example. so i don't think we are pulling out from the pacific rim, and i think i did -- i think biden is talking about american capital coming in, and a thick american capital is coming in. tom: thank you so much for joining. thank you for your conversation on bloomberg. my favorite of all time is jeff bezos. david: he was the best. tom: i don't know if he was the best, but it was great. david: thank you very much. tom: thank you again. i think what is so important here is this davos is so different from thousand nine. people are not shocked i the system. they are shocked by the war. it is a fundamental difference right now. lisa: and this feeling of constant shocks. we came from a pandemic, that crisis. now we are dealing with the crisis of ukraine, dealing with shutdowns in china, prolonging
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supply chain disruptions. how do you deal with crisis upon crisis overlaid with inflation we have not seen since the 1970's? that angst is underpinning all discussions. tom: my theme of davos this year, stealing it from george will into thousand one from robert gates come our defense secretary, and played up recently, the holiday from history is over. lisa: i thought you were just going to sing for us. he goes into the alps. tom: let's do a data check here. it is a different feeling than the crisis we have seen over the last number of days, and all in all, a better bond market as well showing the little bit of confidence within the system, to .82% on the tenure. brent crude, $113 as well. coming up on the markets, matt brill will join us, head of u.s. investment grade at invesco. from davos, stay with us. this is bloomberg.
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