tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg May 26, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> whatever the fed starts raising interest rates, the specter of inflation goes from the back burner to the front burner and people are talking about it. >> i think you will see social instability. >> you're seeing a repricing and rewriting of the equity market. >> i think recession talk is a little bit premature, too early. >> if you want to get inflation to do percent in six months or even a year, they are going to have to overdo it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: countdown to the latest read of the u.s. labor market in davos, switzerland. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on television come on radio. jon ferro is off. we are broadcasting live as people empty out.
the gloom is lifting and we are about to get a read on the labor market that is presenting a real conundrum for people looking for gloom. tom: you are dead on. there's been a lot of crosscurrents here. all of it comes back to the labor market and the weekly data of claims is critical. lisa: i think it is what people are looking at a time when they are trying to figure out if people are exuding the labor market, whether it still has a tightness that it once did, and we are getting a series of possibly brighter forecasts from retailers like macy's where people are still spending. how do you cross tale that into all of the negativity here in davos and beyond? tom: could you talk? my throat is gone because of the fondue last night. it was just too much. lisa: what was it again, val vita -- again, the lita -- again,velveeta? [laughter] we have a big crew helping us
make this happen and bring the interviews. this has been a really interesting davos with respect to how gloomy people are about europe. there's a different tone when it comes to the u.s.. the stamina of the labor market and the stamina of the consumer continuing to spend and the stimulus that a lot of people blame for the inflation is also giving a lot of savings a boost, which is giving people a lot of ability to spend. tom: i go back to joe stiglitz and the growth rate, and there's an embedded belief that the united states, whatever happens, will be better growth rate then so many other regions. lisa: we will get into that to talk about the disparate potential outcome for europe and the u.s.. right now we are seeing a bit of a lift to markets. i'm wondering whether we can actually eke out a weekly gain after the longest train of losses going back 2001, and what would actually drive that given that we are seeing some
stability in yields? people are thinking maybe we are starting to price in a little bit more of a slowdown and give the said more flexibility as s&p futures are giving a lift, up about 0.5 percent, getting really close to that 4000 mark. tom: thank you so much. when i was choking on is i read geoffrey yu's research report, and this is without question the most controversial conversation here in davos. geoffrey yu is brilliant with bny mellon, and you say they are wrong. all the people doubting dollar intervention are wrong. you mentioned giant frankel of harvard, and you say we need to start thinking about a plaza accord of 2023. why is the dollar to strong? geoffrey: the dollar is too strong in terms of valuations, but the u.s. needs to figure this out on its own accord. the dollar itself and the fed is not really going to matter in
terms of financial conditions. look at the four pillars of financial conditions. fx our rent -- are ranked last. europe are finally changing their tone. they need a stronger euro to bring down inflation, but they need to realize this strengthens consumers intimate as well as the purchasing power. this is very different compared to several decades ago. when you think about what each country needs for themselves, so that is the difference between now and three days ago. tom: let's find common ground with david landau and ian bremmer come out with his new book, and every nation for itself. how do you have coordination if you are not camped out in the lobby of the plaza in new york? geoffrey: right now you have enough communication over the
past 15 years or so, like the swap lines during the pandemic, but it is kinda backward looking. there's coordination when it comes to firefighting, responding to crises, but where is the coordination up ahead? in the era of deglobalization, that is the question we need to ask. if you are talking about deglobalization, isn't deglobalization by definition every central bank for itself? philosophically, where do governments stand? if not, we can forget about picking up the phone. lisa: if we don't get that harmonization and we stay where we are and perhaps a regionalization of partnerships, how do you see the euro reacting out a time when people are downgrading rough expectations for world growth and we are starting to see the euro get a little bit of a bounce from that ? geoffrey: the ecb is starting to
realize this, a strong currency need not be a bad thing. there are more things to an economy than a trade surplus. let's get away from the 17th, 18th century way of thinking. it is harder for asia and euro, but if you have stronger purchasing power, that can help offset some of the inflation losses up to real income as well. a stronger euro at this point, euro is still going to be undervalued even five big figures from here, so that is good for the euro zone households. it can lift their demand in real terms. that is good for the euro, so they need to cross that. they are finally starting to shift. i the euro will find a new higher range, but even with a higher range, it is still going to be very much undervalued. lisa: we are talking about fluctuations that are minuscule, at least for this week, but the elephant in the room at davos has really been china and how we deal with the fact that the slowdown we are seeing from shutdowns probably are not going to end anytime soon.
how do you map that outed to a currency call at a time when it seems as though that is going to remain the policy at least for the remainder of the year? geoffrey: if we look at our high flow customer data, our customers are starting to buy see and why, starting to buy china to -- starting to buy cny, starting to buy chinese equities, and gentle buying and bonds as well. they are so underweight that they are not taking a growth view. maybe they are just starting to find some value on a total return basis with chinese equities, bonds, and the currency where it is. but to translate that from a rereading, from a growth view, i want to go overweight china again. the window is narrowing, so we need more stimulus, more government driven stimulus and demand lift right now. yesterday, per merely that premier -- premier li said
local governments need to fend for themselves. tom: if china ends on lockdown, what happens to the greater pacific rim? one day it is going to be over. then what? geoffrey: then we are going to have not only in asia, but probably a global context, a number of stimulus is, not just lockdowns ending, but look at how thailand, indonesia, malaysia are dependent on chinese tourists. go to the watch shops in davos. are they complaining about a lack of chinese tourists? when they return, that $200 billion services deficit china runs is going to be such a big stimulus. lisa: people bake in an
appropriate slowdown. i do think there's more to come to be priced into risk assets, and frankly even to yields. geoffrey: i think we need to differentiate what is a slowdown versus basically a hard versus soft landing. i think people are still picking and a soft landing. if the fed turns restrictive, they now hard landing, that i think the market is probably taking a bit too lightly right now. so we are not saying it is over yet by any stretch. the marketer appreciating a growth slowdown. i think that is one for the is needed. we are seeing a bit of a risk bounce, but i think the fed will have to on the word on that. tom: geoff yu with bny mellon on this. lisa: a lot of people looking
for some coordination. it is hard to see how you get some sort of synchronized move at a time when people are looking at idiosyncratic economies. tom: i'm going to tear up. you do this eight hours for five days, i lost it there. you saved the show. the team here, i did not know this, i hope i am pronouncing this right, rishi kirsch, we say thank you. lisa: that's great, tom. thank you for that. i'm sure when you say i hope i am pronouncing this right, for everybody that probably is not
right. you keep practicing that. coming up, we are talking about real estate. i know we are just having two different conversations right now, but in addition to the jobless claims we get in 20 minutes here, we are also going to be getting housing data at a time when interest rates are climbing. i am fascinated to hear what he has to say. i think we will ask jonathan miller. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. it is one of the biggest technology deals of all time. broadcom agreed to buy vmware for about 61 billion dollars. the transition represents about a 41% premium to vmware's valuation before may 20. that was the last trading day for bloomberg reported a potential takeover talk. the u.k. will impose a so-called windfall tax on the profits of
oil and gas. the money will be used to help fund at least $6.3 billion support for that's facing a cost-of-living crisis. the chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak said the 25% tax would be temporary. senior ministers in the british government have not opposed a special levity -- a special levy on energy firms because a veritable heard investment. the chinese premier warned of dire consequences if they don't prevent the economy from getting worse. he told thousands of local officials a contraction in the second quarter must be avoided. his comments were more candid than the official readout published by government media. the massacre at a texas school has revived discussions of so-called red flag laws as one potential compromise between democrats and republicans. those laws allow police were family members to ask a court to temporarily remove firearms or prevent their purchase by someone considered a danger. still there are divisions between the two parties over the specifics. apple is taking a conservative
stance that comes to iphones this year. the company is asking suppliers to assemble roughly 220 million of the devices in 2022, about the same as last year. the mobile phone industry has got off to a difficult start to the year and production estimates are down across the board. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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china is very determined and seems very convinced that they will be able to meet their growth target, and they are accelerating their infrastructure investment, and it is good for demand. tom: he's the chief executive officer of rio tinto, was a view from sydney to perth. sydney is on the east coast. perth is how they say it. lisa: we will get people from australia writing and, saying please, never ever say perth again. tom: rio tinto with a step forward. that would be broken heel properties, from sydney to perth as well. i looked at newcastle cold. i mentioned australia and cold today. it's by cups so much you can't even do a standard deviation study. welcome to davos, world of comic forum. these emerging markets which are hugely represented in these
meetings, damian sassower joins us in new york. i want to talk about what rio tinto is looking at, which is the moonshot of coal. is your world adjusting to a permanent higher commodity price , or do you look at newcastle cold from sydney -- at newcastle coal from sydney to perth? damian: ace metals have really fallen off. you see that in a lot of the emerging market currencies such as the real and the south african rand in the peso. the big story in emerging markets is going to be you got president xi and his commitment to covid zero, and premier li who talked about increased lending to household and commercials. if you're running a bank, it is like deciding which picture to pull out of the red sox bullpen.
there's a low probability of getting a win out of this. [laughter] lisa: this is important. i'm so glad you brought this up because frankly, the dichotomy between these two behemoths in china really highlights how people are wondering about the leadership in the direction of a nation absolutely hammered by their zero covid policy. what do you take away from this and the possibility that xi jinping does not have the clutch over the nation he was expected to have? damian: my take away is there is a distinct political agenda ahead of the party congress, and it is getting very difficult for presidency to hide behind that. i think that is his priority more so than the health of the economy in this state. you would be handing out cash. you would not be trying to extend credit to people when there is no demand for it. you would be handing out cash,
giving direct financial aid to households and companies who very badly need it that is what is missing here in the 33 point plan. lisa: the fact that such a high level official would come out publicly and so directly give a different tone then she's, who is by all accounts going to be the leader indefinitely, what does that tell you about where the economy is, and frankly, what happens after the party congress is held? damian: the premier is not going to deliver that address without a full signoff by the president, so it is two sides of the same coin. it is more ambiguity that is really driving the decision tree at the c-suite and most of the boot -- in most of the major corporate banks. how do you lead small and medium-size businesses if their business plans don't work? it is going back to the 1990's,
they're going to be building towns to nowhere, bridges to nowhere. i think something needs to be done to prevent that, quite frankly. tom: you just brought back david tomlinson and mary poppins, a magical moment with dick van dyke. i met with the minister of finance of malaysia today, and every time we talked -- plus, he's a liverpool fan, and he circled back to their commodity mix. let's go to the heart of it. it is 443,000 miles from sydney to perth. tell me about the commodity variable for china as they come out of lockdown. how do you analyze that? damian: it is getting increasingly difficult. what china has been doing, p7 provides real-time tracking data
out of china. they have band that data from going out to the masses. what you're seeing in china is a lot of high-frequency data, so we don't have a lot more to go on. it just shows how bad things are on the ground, how the slowdown is hitting. for me it is how do you provide transparency in a country is basically holding it back? how do you justify to your fiduciaries making an investment where they are not giving you all the answers? that is going to be a concern for emerging-market practitioners here. tom: thank you so much. an important conversation on e.m. which i would say in the market is out of the picture except for davos, it was front and center. lisa: very much as people try to understand where the marginal growth is going to come from. literally that entire segment you were coming up with ways to keep saying perth. , wrong?
-- am i wrong? tom: what i don't understand, there's just this conceit, like in america, from new york to san francisco, they say from sydney to perth. that is how they say it. lisa: i don't think they at like that. tom: did you ever do a road trip across australia? lisa: i think we have to do that. honestly, we are about five minutes away from u.s. data and i do want to focus on the is will be telling. more importantly, jobless claims. tom: if you do a road trip in australia, you listen to grandpa ferro the whole way across america. what you do in australia? lisa: abba? tom: abba? that's swedish. lisa: can we get to the jobless
claims we are going to see in about five minutes time? are you back to normal, or do you start to see swings that are more significant as we see a number of companies start to lay off staff? you are seeing that on the peripheries. tom: you are saying statistically we are seeing that. lisa: i would say anecdotally, certain companies that hired substantially some of the warehouse staff and other personnel that are having to cut back. tom: what is the claims number where we go omg, it is over? lisa: it is just the pace of how much it increases. do we move off of the incredibly low levels quickly? tom: that is english major level calculus you just did. michael feroli. stay with us from davos. this is bloomberg on radio and on television. good morning. ♪
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switzerland. it is a perfect day and supposedly a perfect american labor economy. our michael mckee, the weekly's job at -- the weekly jobless claims number. michael: not just the weekly jobless claims number but we are getting the second read on gdp. at this point the jobless claims numbers are coming in at 210,000, which is down from 218,000 last week. that is going to be good news. there were some who went as far as speculating the labor market was rolling over but clearly that is not the case. gdp -1.5%. that is .1% lower than the 1.4 percent originally recorded by the government for the first quarter. personal consumption rises. we spent more money.
3.1% increase over the fourth quarter compared to 2.7% increase. it does look like the economy is still in decent shape as well -- or it was coming out of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter. the question is what is happening in the current quarter? tom: the market stay the same. futures up 15. we will see what the bond market does. geoffrey yu with an important note on the plaza accord sites harvard university. as you know, frankel of harvard has been definitive on trying to figure out the definition of a recession. with all that you read, do you ascribe two negative quarters of gdp is a recession? michael: that is not the nbr. that is a technical definition
that appears in some textbooks. the nbr looks at consumer spending and business spending and it has to be a generalized decline in economic activity over a time to declare a recession. this is why they wait a long time to say we are in one or not because they need to get all the revised figures together to find out if we have had that kind of decline. there is no way we are in one right now. there's no reason to think we could not go into one. we are not likely to according to the latest numbers we are getting. right now we are not anticipating this quarter will be a negative quarter, either. lisa: this is a positive downside surprised. you want fewer jobless claims. or perhaps not. have we gotten back to good news being bad news? i am looking at some of the futures off the highs and you see yields near session lows.
what is your interpretation as people expect the fed to be more patient than a couple weeks ago? michael: everybody is expecting the fed to be more patient. it came up yesterday in the minutes. the fed is going to raise rates 50 basis points over the next two meetings. it may be early to make a call on that in terms of what is going on with economic data, although new-home sales and existing home sales started to roll over. we had troubles with the stock market. as long as the jobless rate is the slope and we will see next friday what happens with employment, it is not likely we will see the fed pause. inflationary pressures will still be there. they did warn a lot about the impacts from china and the ukraine war. that is what they will be watching for.
clear and convincing evidence inflation is going down. the numbers we got today are not saying that. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. claims a bit positive but the gdp revised a little bit challenged to say the least. michael feroli chief economic at jp morgan, is note friday comes out at about 7:00 p.m. you talk about the headline analysis. algebraic functions friday night at 8:00 is a highlight of my friday evening. what dear algebraic functions say about the american housing market? units are grim, price has not moved. michael: housing is suffering a little bit from higher mortgage rates. we saw that in the new home sales might just mentioned as well as every point we got last
week. we would expect that to continue the next several months given the lag between when mortgage rates go up and when new home sales go down. we are coming off white-hot levels, getting a little bit back into balance. it is likely to be the case that inventories, even with home sales coming off inventories will remain lean and we will see home prices declining. hopefully get more into balance. cooling-off, but not 2006 by any means. lisa: this question pains me to ask but are people getting too gloomy as they start to price in some sort of slowdown? michael: the fed will continue moving. obviously we'll get the june/july 50 basis point moves, and the point discussed earlier, chair powell is an outcome based guy, and he wants to see inflation activities slow down.
while housing may be a leading indicator for the economy, i think jay powell will want to do things slow before he pulls off the rate hikes. i think maybe we are thinking the fed will be too gentle with the economy but they have their work cut out and i do not see them pausing after july. lisa: what are you looking for as a side we are seeing some sort of slow down with respect to inflation at a time where we are hearing from everyone here the consumer is still very strong? michael: i think you want to see the labor markets often more materially than we have seen. we do not want to see a lot of unemployment, but the jobless claims numbers we just mentioned , though suggest we are still a hot labor market. you would like to see not only job growth slow but vacancies come down. we would like to see that happen in ace move fashion -- in a
smooth fashion. generally that is not the case but that would be the ideal scenario. tom: one of the key sentences i have heard is central banks do not have reaction functions right now are making it up as they go. as you and your team piece together tomorrow's note, do you have a mathematical structure or a geometric structure of where we are heading, or are you as blind as the central bank? michael: it is clear the fed is not operating and has not been operating but anything close to a formulaic reaction function. that makes gauging central banks a little bit tricky. that has been the case for a couple of years. it does not look anything like what the fed has been doing. tom: what is the fact we are living with? is it as lisa mentioned to just
watch the consumer? michael: the consumer matters but i think the consumer will follow where the labor market goes. we can talk about excess savings and all of that, but it is labor income driving consumer spending. tom: that is jamie dimon online three, pick up the phone and say hi for us. michael feroli at jp morgan. i cannot say enough about the research effort they do. we are such nerds. honest to god. friday night you were sitting there with the beverage of your choice, doing whatever you're doing, and it is 7:00 p.m., is michael feroli out yet? how about the red sox? is for rowley -- is michael feroli out yet? lisa: we are supposed to not seem like that is our friday nights but that is our friday
night and everyone knows it. i think it is time for us to interview someone who has been a dominant personality at davos and has been an incredible host of several different panels and has a birds eye view into the crosscurrents of many different countries. that is one tom keene. what was the biggest take away from the panels you did? tom: did my agent sign off on that? my number one take away, lisa drives me nuts, we could be talking liverpool, and she says why aren't we talking about china? guess what, we are talking about china. when the lockdown ends, what? lisa: the lack of visibility into that, especially because the china delegation is not here because of zero covid. they are not here to give some sort of intel into what is going on. how you position going forward when that could be the potential
swing option in terms of the economy. tom: a wonderful conversation with brian moynihan. he was like banker nerd, wasn't he? lisa: you walk him into that. you do not care about fed speak, do you? i guess not. tom: to take brian moynihan at bank of america, very visible, and jamie dimon in his 44 page note where they are talking about hard work, and the other thing i think is underestimated is every single company is going to adjust and adapt to the data michael feroli -- i am just not as negative as others because they will adapt and adjust as we move forward. lisa: one conversation i had with the money manager who oversees a lot of assets said to me the most bullish thing i heard was all the pessimism. the uniform gloom may be incredibly optimistic because
frankly it seems like a tight flood in. you hear from other people saying perhaps not. tom: jonathan miller, i think he has 42 restaurants by the wind of manhattan, he owns three homes north of manhattan. john miller knows real estate and he is living large with these prices. he will come back and tell you when real estate breaks. lisa: racket lake. [laughter] please don't remind me. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. one of the largest technologically deals of all time will turn a chipmaker into a bigger force in software. broadcom has agreed to buy a cloud computing company. it represents a 44% premium to vmware valuation before may 20.
that was last trading day bloomberg reported potential takeover talks. today antony blinken will deliver a long-awaited speech outlining u.s. strategy towards china but there is to be any bold new direction unveiled. antony blinken it explain existing policy -- russia has cut interest rates for the first time in a little over a month. the central bank is stemming a rally in the ruble -- 14% to 11%. the ruble has soared to the highest level since 2018. exports and capital controls have hit demand for foreign-exchange. alibaba reported a better-than-expected 9% rise in revenue in the march quarter. chinese consumers turn to basic leads during covid lockdown. alibaba is a barometer for consumer sentiment because of
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about the american economy. lisa: talking about the realities on the ground for people who are struggling with inflation. tom: i am looking over here to see if the goats are gone. the swiss army is helping us out. our last section in davos. we cannot afford anything in davos to buy or rent. lisa: or eat. tom: jonathan miller joins us to tell us when housing will crack in america. you would suggest we are starting to see an ebb. is that because people cannot afford the rent? they cannot afford the mortgages? jonathan: i think we are approaching a peak. i think rising mortgage rates are one of the best things that is happening to housing. in many ways low mortgage rates are making housing less affordable because it has
obliterated supply, whether in the rental market or the purchase market. i cover 40 different housing markets across the u.s. and the market share bidding wars right now is anywhere from 25 to 75% of all closed sales activity. that is not sustainable. we need more inventory. tom: tell us about the mortgage rate right now. are the people who have short-term urges -- short-term mortgages at lower rates in trouble now that we have higher rates? jonathan: could clearly puts more pressure on places given how much prices have gone up over the last year, depending on the metric around 20%. this next year, 2022, more like 9% to 10% and probably 3% to 4% the following year, even with the rate hikes.
all of this is because there is limited supply. there is an underpinning, this is not financial engineering exercise we had during the bubble. credit conditions are still tighter than historic norms. that is pushing some people into the rental market, which is making it less affordable. lisa:, is the story of private investors and investment firms buying up a lot of single-family homes and removing a lot of supply? jonathan: i think it is a factor. it becomes more apparent when you are already in a situation right now where inventory is about one third of what it should be for a normal market. i also think it is overhyped as a contributing factor.
i think the bottom line is rates have been too low for too long and you have to think of inventories a living and breathing organism that takes time to recover and it has not had the chance. that is causing price growth of the likes we have never seen. lisa: this is the distinction as people talk about five plus percent mortgage rates and the idea the actual number of sales is slowing, the prices are still going up. when we see prices peak and allied to mortgage rates go? jonathan: i think prices -- it is more about the rate of growth we are seeing. we have been seeing the last year a rocketship straight up. i think we will see a moderation. affordability has fallen by half since the end of the year. mortgage rates are up 2%.
that is a rapid change. that will slow down transactions. what is interesting is before the rate growth sales were already falling because inventory has collapsed and was restraining sales activity, now is a combination of both. tom: jonathan miller, too short of a visit. thank you so much for joining. as we go back to new york, we already ready housing point that is extraordinary. we have to close the loop on a number of items. first of all, on the goat farm there were serious people i was going triple leverage goat farm. i decided the legal fees alone were too much. lisa: you decided we should go to triple leverage sheep farm because they are sheep, not goats. they are sheep because they are chewing grass. tom: there they are. those look like sheep. lisa: let's hear your best
sheep. tom: i cannot do that as well. we have people here speaking english and i cannot understand a word they say. lisa has been helping us all week and i did not even know she was australian. on the break i got a lecture. it is not melbourne like we say. it -- lisa: mal-burn. tom: i cannot say it. lisa: this has been an interesting davos. i have been surprised at how serious people have been in getting things done. it is trying to roll up your sleeves. tom: all of us have maximum guilt about being away. you have to buy loot when you go home. thank you, structured credit dad emailed in and he agrees with
me. lisa: is that the reason you are mentioning this, to excuse why that will not be in the loop bag? what will it be? toblerone with davos? it is not any cheaper. tom: it is not at all. lisa: i've been impressed at how things have gone and then we will head back to new york city. tom: we are in london tomorrow, then with the balance of power in what joe mathieu is doing we go back to a sad story in america. lisa: a horrendous story that desensitizes people to what happens in schools. honestly, that schools prepare for this. tom: we need to say thank you to the hundreds in davos that have helped us. queen victoria helpdesk. did anastasia help us? lisa: thank you to all. tom: thank you to all.
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