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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  May 27, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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anna: stocks higher across the globe. the countdown to the closing europe starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪
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anna: welcome to the european close here on bloomberg television. half an hour to go until the close for this friday. guy johnson is off today. i'm here with alix steel. let's check out the markets. half an hour until the close of the european session. it is been quite a .1. we started up a little flat in europe. managed to eke out some gains come up by one and a quarter percent. what has been driving sentiment. we have learned a bit about the fed and people reading the right things into the fed or too much ended the minutes. a good overall appetite for risk it seems toward the end of the week. 600 utilities. i put that sector in there because it has not been a good time for the utilities, certainly in the u.k. and we will dissect this, down 1%. that is one in negative
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territory. anything facing the consumer seems to be rebounding. more broadly across the european stock market. utilities and area of weakness and the euro is up. we will talk about where the ecb goes from here because we heard from christine lagarde and then we heard from the hawks and the doves and plenty of opinions on where the ecb goes next. we get inflation data from the ecb or eurozone i should say next week. alix: part of what helps european equities is u.s. equities, trading a little off the highs of the session but despite finding a little softer, and we go to of ago doolittle. ewa coco the nasdaq up -- abigail: the nasdaq is up. tesla is higher at five point 6%. that could have something to do with the fact some twitter shareholders suing the ceo of tesla elon musk for supposedly,
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allegedly manipulating the twitter stock price. the idea is maybe that bid for twitter won't go through. more energy for tesla, tesla up. not slowing, bitcoin down below the $29,000 curve. not at the recent low, still hanging in there. kiwi, new zealand dollar versus the u.s. dollar, up .8%. not so long ago it was up or than 1%. strong retail sales in australia. going to new zealand as well. overall, a risk on day. anna: thank you. that risk on session we're closing the week with. u.k. inflation sits at a four decade high of 9% as the bank anticipates a sharp contraction in growth. u.k. prime minister johnson is confident the country can dodge a recession you nothing cost-of-living squeeze
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residence. johnson talks about the challenges ahead and it is exclusive conversation with kitty donelson. he is on a train, should point out, on route to the north of england. >> to tackle inflation in the medium-term, gifted you with supply-side issues -- you have to deal with supply-side issues. we need the energy companies to be putting more into hydrocarbons, but we also need the whole country to be investing in more low carbon energy. >> announcement acts as an incentive to buy gas and oil or produce gas and oil? >> i think we are going to need some -- i don't think we can turn our backs entirely on hydrocarbons. u.k. has a flourishing sector in the northeast of scotland. it is very important. we have to keep that going. i think one of the lessons of the current spike is we can't
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afford to be totally dependent on putin's hydrocarbon but at the same time we have to accelerate our drive for low carbon energy. the british energy security strategy, 50 gigawatts of wind by 2030, 25 gigawatts of nuclear by 2050. these are big, big increases in a low carbon energy. what they offer is a big platform for investment from overseas. found in the last few weeks is a real appetite from international investors for money in long-term infrastructure projects in the u.k., and integrate energy sector. >> can ask about how spending? do you risk getting the public -- quickly, what happens if the war in ukraine continues and this time there are still high energy prices? >> i think the package we have set out in it the last couple of
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days, the package ritchie said outcome as i say, it is meat and potatoes. it is very considerable commitment to help the british people to do what we did in the pandemic, put our arms around people, get them through the surge in energy prices. we think it will last until prices start to abate. i am confident they will. the supply will start to improve and the humanities always fertile in expedience and immensely resourceful and coming up with solutions. we will find new ways of getting energy, not of least in this country but in the meantime, we are going to have a difficult period. we have to be clear with people, it is going to be difficult. the government cannot solve every problem. we can't cover everybody's extra cost.
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but what we can do is make sure we deal with the underlying causes of inflation, but also keep our economy strong and open to investment. anna: prime minister joyce -- boris johnson talking about the u.k. economy saying it will avoid a recession but cautioning that will be difficult times ahead. during the conversation, he also small military support for ukraine. said at no point try to negotiate with russia's president vladimir putin. >> happening go the crocodile when it is in the new look left leg? what isn't the negotiation? that is what putin is doing. he will try to freeze the conflict. he will try to call for a cease-fire. anna: joining us now, mark champion who can help us understand the geopolitics involved in that conversation and where we are on the ukraine war. good to have you with us.
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i wide-ranging conversation with johnson but honing in on what he had to say about ukraine and how things are more broadly going, he was painting a picture there of ukraine that still needs more weapons -- which is something we have heard in the past -- and calling for more weaponry. where are we on that story about the amount ukraine is calling for and what is being sent by the west? >> right now we have had about a week or so in which the russians have started to make fairly consistent if limited gains in the east. ukraine calls for heavy weaponry. this is longer-range weaponry, has become more acute. the reason is the russians have started to change their strategy quite dramatically and there focusing very, very much on the more cautious strategy which is also more brittle one which is to use their massive advantage and quantities of artillery to basically pound the enemy to dusk and then move in. this is happening one town after
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another at the moment. it is not a fast process, but it is happening. what the cranes are saying, we cannot really compete with this until we get the longer-range equipment that will allow us to threaten the russian artillery behind the lines, threaten the supply lines and so on. asking for multiple launch rocket systems that have a range of around 70 to 80 kilometers. they need it to stop now and to be able to have -- ever consider taken the territory back. alix: boris johnson has been one of the most vocal leaders aside from president biden against russia's incursion into ukraine. is he at the forefront of this? does he have more of a leading voice within europe right now considering geopolitically it
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was quite fracture before because of brexit? >> he definitely has been at the forefront, as you say, support for ukraine, calling for support. and more than the rhetorical side, the brits were quite early in sending out sophisticated antitank weapons and then moving to heavy weaponry and so on. that doesn't necessarily mean britain is suddenly leading europe. that is not happening. britain left with exit and those wounds are there and problems remaining between the eu and britain. but definitely, the u.k. has moved out in front of little bit more than most would have thought. anna:'s description of vladimir putin as a crocodile. he was saying that because he was being asked whether europe is all on one page here in the question was put in that other leaders may be more tempted to
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try negotiate or encourage ukraine to try negotiate with russia more. boris johnson clearly thinks that is a bad idea and you should not negotiate with putin. >> it is a really good question and probably the most important at the moment on this side of the battlefield, on the non-battlefield. really what we have here is a number of leaders who were starting to mumble about at some point we're going to need to get into negotiation. there has to be a cease-fire at some point. the sooner the better, less people will die, etc. even henry kissinger saying something along those lines in davos. the ukrainian responses, look, we cannot start talking until we have taken this territory back because we have been there before. this happened in 2014. we were encouraged by france and germany to come to a cease-fire. we did and here we are eight years later.
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crocodile analogy, whatever that is worth, there is something to it in the tenacity and fear in ukraine that they can sign a cease-fire, but it simply won't be over. alix: something that has come up recently, creating trade, particularly grain trade. disruption of getting grain out of ukraine. where is the latest on that? is it realistic to think about that when we can barely get you mentoring channels open? >> it is going to be incredibly difficult. you have several issues. the first is the ports were mined by ukrainians to make sure the russians would not be able to execute an amphibious landing most of so soon as the russian side, look, you need to open up the ports and de-mine them, they ukrainians i we're not going to just do that based on your word.
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we need a substantial interest rate -- forced to make sure we do not have an and for bs landing. the second problem is the russians are attaching this to sanctions release. as i live these sanctions and we will allow grain exports. it is up to you. the responses, no, we're not going to attach -- link sanctions to that. this is to be done in water to help africa, places in the middle east where there is going to be real hunger as a result of these blockades. alix: we appreciate your analysis. mark champion joining us. coming up, we will stay with the inflation name and take a look at the market concern. silvia dall'angelo will be joining us next. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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>> inflation is trending higher. higher than our inflation rates throughout the year. >> the cost is a concern. we had a kinda perfect storm. >> we're going to have more conflict. you're going to have more inflation. inflation causes domestic political conflict. >> raising interest rates is not going to solve the problem for inflation. it is not going to create more food. it is going to make it more difficult because you aren't going to be able -- >> critical thing for us is not to see second round of effects happening, not to see too much broadening of the things increasing in prices, and importantly, to make sure the median term expectations remain anchored. anna: just some of the voices speaking to bloomberg at davos
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this past week. inflation was atop conversation. let's get back to the question of the day come has inflation peaked or paused? bringing into the conversation, silvia dall'angelo. great to have you with this. we ask this question because we had the pc numbers from the united states today, favored measure of inflation that the fed likes to look at. that raises the question whether we have paused. another global conversation is a little different but on the u.s., do you think we have peaked? >> that is a great question. it might have peaked in terms of u.s. inflation. however, going forward, i think inflation will remain quite sticky for the next few months at least. there is still a lot of pressure in terms of wage inflation
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recently, but also core -- sorry, food and energy. in the coming months, inflation will remain quite sticky and not come down as quickly as policymakers would like to see. alix: if we put that lens on the u.k. and europe, how far are we from peak inflation there? particularly in u.s., it has to be super sticky overseas. >> in europe, we have an additional layer of outward pressure from energy prices given the war in ukraine and oil supply constraints around gas in particular and energy more broadly. i think we see the peak inflation in the next quarter in the euro zone, but again, inflation will largely remain quite innovated at about 8%,
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basically, for the balance of the year. the picture is quite similar in the u.k. where we see the peak of it later in the year, october, when basically the next increase in the utility cap -- that is another 40% increase that will happen in october. after that, inflation should climb and next year actually it will decline quite click -- quickly across the board. anna: let me ask you more about the ecb. eurozone inflation expected to peak ask quarter and we have not seen the ecb start hiking rates yet. there are different considerations in the eurozone compared to the u.k. and u.s., but inflation is still high only expect numbers about 8% maybe can't be ruled out entirely for next week. if we have that high level of
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inflation in the euro zone, how many hikes do you think the ecb will be able to do? >> what the ecb has provided fairly clear plan for the next few months and over the balance of the year, really, as -- largely positive territory. i think exiting negative territory is fair to say, low hanging fruit for the ecb given at the moment probably like a source of additional problems, downward pressure on the
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currency at a time when commodity prices are really quite high. but then i think the ecb will face some issues and that is because of fermentation problem but also recession risks that fits around the situation with the war in ukraine. alix: continuing the global snapshot, let's end on the bank of england. the government and l measures doubt support paying energy bills. in theory, that means they don't have to run down there savings are going to debt to pay those energy bills so they have a little extra money. i'm wondering if you look at the target of measures the government underwent, does that make the boe's job easier or harder to control inflation? >> well, i would say the measurements announced yesterday will provide some relief to
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households, especially the most vulnerable households. that is who the package actually targets, low income households. however, the drive from high inflation would remain there. significant squeeze to real incomes and consumption, even after the measures that the government announced yesterday. the big picture is not really change for the u.k. economy. the thing on balance, additional fiscal spending will make the job a bit easier in coming months, meaning the most dovish members will probably have more confidence in targeting rates basically focusing more on the inflation issue. alix: a little more wiggle room is what the government gave them. silvia dall'angelo, thank you very much. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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>> a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. global equity funds biggest influx in weeks led by u.s. stocks, cheaper valuations for steve cella and recession bids. investors added about $20 billion to global stocks in the week that ended wednesday. the war in ukraine, russian still makers were the most confident in industry now being forced to sell at heavy discounts. heavy woods -- facing to men's to sell it discounts as much as 40%. russia central bank cracking down and italy come and post around of to very restrictions affecting italian companies.
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since the invasion of ukraine, russia central bank has taken a series of us going measures to limit foreign companies operations. that is the latest business flash. alix: we understand russia is going to actually default on its debt or not. some investors are supposed to get about $100 million of interest on russian foreign debt by the end of business today. putin has said they have transfer that money but the question is, can it actually be accessed and does it count as being paid? anna: absolutely. we are in untested waters when it comes to exactly what to find a fault. it will be fascinating to get the views of credit agencies because, yes, the russian said they paid, and then it is in the hands of another body, that is what the russians argue come and of course this is the first payment due since the treasury closed the loophole that allowed
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the u.s. financial system to send the money to the end recipients their previous time around. even if we see this money get through, we will ask the same questions next time and keep returning back to but something we are keeping a close eye on as well as the evolving sanction situation. let's take a quick look at the european markets, closing pretty strongly. four minutes until the end of the european session. we will talk about the equity market shortly and also talk about energy and taxing energy profits here in europe. run throughout the natural world. and can now be found in the automotive one. the world's most aerodynamic production vehicle. the eqs sedan.
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♪ >> welcome back to the european close on bloomberg tv. this is the picture we have for you on the european map. we are seeing some buoyancy and risk appetite across urine and
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-- european equity markets, and we see consumer facing business is doing pretty well and themes of the week playing out on the map in front of us here. over performance in london and underperformance in eastern europe, the same. let's take a broader shot of what we've got going on here, this is the last five days. this is starting out in quite modest form, really accelerating toward the end of the day. the u.s. charts are similar as well. the risk appetite being recovered by a combination, also those fed minutes -- did we rightly or wrongly read dovish messaging in the fed minutes? managing to break the run of the negative week we have seen on european stocks, the global stocks, and in the u.s. as well. this is the sector breakdown, over five days, so these are the
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we have seen enthusiasm for retail, which is an interesting one when you think about the pressures of inflation and what we are enjoying the good times once they come. that sets a positive tone and we see retail performing pretty well. we also scratch our heads a little bit on the consumer facing story in the inflation pressures. down at the bottom, a couple of interesting stories. that's another dimension to it that we pick up on the individual stocks. this is a bit of a read across the map, we got one tech name, one social media name, alphabet, their numbers have such an impact globally, and it had to do with the appetite that
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rippled through, and in europe, the media names like wt p in the u.k. and france reacting to what the macro environment means for revenue, how robust and brilliant can they be at this point? let's show you what's going on in the individual movers, i was going to talk about utilities and here's where i will do that. bp down another 9% today, often following what is going on with the oil price, but there is also the taxation of --. the profits they make in the north sea, the u.k. based profits now going to be taxed in extra time if you like. there is also attack exemption -- a tax exemption for --. these are companies that generate electricity and in a world where you are trying to
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transition away from oil and gas and more towards electric, you might think, why would you want to put taxes on this kind of industry? that's something the treasury is still reckoning with. these businesses have been making good profit as a result of higher prices of energy, but what does that mean and what do we do about that if you want to get your hands on some of those profits? it raises a lot of interesting questions about where the tax state comes from, alex. alix: we mentioned some of the names that got downgraded because of the impact. we are joined by the wood mackenzie senior vice president, who joins us now. this year, what kind of profits are these big oil majors like bp looking at? what are your estimates showing? >> for the north sea production, which is where we have been looking particularly, the profits of the sector should be in the region of about 40
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billion pounds. anna: 40 billion pounds. that's something that has no doubt got the treasury's attention, we know it has, and as we sit here with the windfall tax, what do you expect it to do to investments in the north sea? yes, it's a windfall tax on those profits, but you can offset that, reduce that tax burden if you promise to invest. graham: well that's correct. as you mentioned, bp said they are going to take some time to work out exactly what this means for the investments they were looking at. the point i suppose, really, for companies that were looking at investing this year compared to last year, the question really is, are those investments looking better at today's hi
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gher oil price, even then when there were last year when the tax rate was lower. these are the sort of things that are probably going to be different from company to company, because they all have different tax profiles. and from investment to investment, different assets of different files. of course, one feature of the new tax is that it is going to last for only 3.5 years, according to the government guidelines. so there is a window there where taxes are going to be higher on your profits. but as you mentioned, there is this investment allowance that mean the level of tax relief will actually be very high on those new investments for that three and a half year period. so for example, if you have a relatively small one, which is
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not normal for the north sea now, but you can develop over that period, you will receive high tax relief for the investment costs. but when the field comes on stream, because it would take a few years to develop facilities and bring on the stream, but the tax rate will come down again. the profits will be taxed at a lower rate than the tax on the investment. so there is an incentive there to bring on some new investments. alix: i'm curious, 40 billion pounds is a huge amount of this oil price. i wonder if you have an idea of the oil price these guys have to maintain in order to want to invest and be able to invest? they will make the profits, deliver the tax to the government, and deliver the dividends shareholders demand? graham: well, if you are talking about the breakeven price
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required for investments to make a certain rate of return, that critically depends not only on the tax system in place, but also the cost of developing those new investments. we are already seeing that inflation in the sector is beginning to rise and we would only expect that to continue, as we are seeing gaps, supply gaps, there are a lot of gaps in the supply sector. when the product price rises, the cost inflation, the new taxes, the prices and where the prices are going to be, they could fall quite significantly if market dynamics changed dramatically, especially as they have done in the past two years.
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so you've got to factor all of those things in and companies have to attach risk factors to all of that in order to come up with what they believe are robust investment decisions that will survive all of those different market changes. anna: a lot of companies that we used to refer to as big oil, they are now big energy. the energy transition they are trying to bring about, do you think it would be made by these announcements yesterday? if they are looking at the incentives in front of them to invest more oil and gas in the north sea, by wind farms in the north sea -- what difference has the announcement yesterday made? graham: well, the most obvious thing is the value of the investments in the north sea is lower than it was on tuesday. that's the first thing.
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a bit lower than it was this time last year. that would be a case-by-case basis. those are regarded as separate businesses. one thing we have been suggesting by government is to think more holistically about energy processes. that means you can expand the tax system for the oil and gas production to include renewable energy projects. that something that would be interesting to look at. then you might have those projects, albeit tax later at a higher rate. you get the tax rates that are now in place for the oil and gas sector. that could act as a stimulus for more renewable energy projects. alix: absolutely.
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i'm wondering if that's something to be considered, to also bring in other sectors into a possible windfall tax. if you make these carveouts, is it ok to tax a power generator differently? graham: you mentioned that in your introduction, the possibility of the windfall tax being expanded to certain electricity generators. that's because the electricity that's being supplied in the market is at market price. now, that market price has been rising very significantly because of the rise in the natural gas price, which still contributes a very, very high percentage of the uk's power. but we do have a number of renewable energy, and by extension, the renewable energy sector is generating a lot of the uk's power. some of that is at market price and some of it is not. some of it is under a fixed rate
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for the government. but that portion of renewable energy that is getting the higher market price, driven by natural gas prices but without having to pay that natural gas as a fee for the electricity, there is a windfall effect have been -- happening for those generators. that's what we need to be in discussion with, to see if a windfall tax is justified there. but as with the oil and gas sector, any increase in oil and gas will be criticized as a dampening effect, and that's a sector the government is keen to grow as quickly as possible and substantially as possible. anna: thank you for joining us, graham kellas, senior vice
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president at wood mackenzie. thank you for your time. as we head towards the break, 12 minutes after the close of the european equity markets, underperformance on the london market, a lot of it to do with what we were just talking about, pressure on energy names, utilities, and a result of government policies. the dax and the cac making a good gain until the end of friday. alix? alix: stay tuned, joined his son dab digital radio in the london area and if you can't head up there, we are now a podcast on spotify and apple, so check us out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritka: this is bloomberg. ♪ keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, on reddit could gupta -- i am reddit could gupta -- the talks would focus on enhancing economic cooperation and supply chain resiliency. and for the first time in two years come profits at chinese industrial firms declined last month. industrial profits fell eight went 5% in april from a year ago. covid outbreaks and lockdowns disrupted factories and sales. and in shanghai, the extreme depths being taken to keep factories running during lockdown. workers and an apple supplier, quan co. computers, starting to revolt overseas after being
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locked down in their factories for almost two months with guards and isolation barriers. forcing workers to live and sleep on the factory floor. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. alix: those videos were really intense, to see the people at the factories trying to -- that's a staggering piece of video there. anna: it's not a good look for someone in your supply chain, a business and your supply chain is witnessing that kind of behavior. if you are a western company, consumers have a lot of pressure on you to secure supply chains, to vouch for it, and we're hearing a lot about these closed-loop solutions in china. that means to fight covid-19, they make sure that staff sleep
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and basically live at their workplace. when does that start to conflict with notions of human rights in the west? that is on the minds of executives globally, i'm sure. alix: that was already an issue when it came to the uighurs and human rights in china, but it also raises questions on that zero tolerance covid policy as well. we know it is not sustainable. the premier's speech this week talking about how we need to shore up the economy and focus on growth versus covid, that was pretty staggering. anna: absolutely. every time we get news that covid may have improved in the margin, how sustainable is it? we know, we all know how it is to control? alix: absolutely. coming up on the program, texas governor greg abbott has dropped plans to address the national
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rifle association's meeting today in texas. we will have the latest on what to watch out for. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: u.s. markets on the highs of the session, along memorial day weekend. the volume not as impressive as we might have expected, as we take a look at some of those moves. abigail: a nice rally for stocks here. the s&p 500 up on the week for more than 5%, its first up week after that longest weekly losing streak since 2001 and late march. dell technologies up 11.6%, a very strong quarter, helped out by demand for office -- and networking. same deal for ulta cosmetics, ulta beauty, up 9.8%. a huge beat, more than a 10%
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sales beat, a bigger beat on the bottom line for managing costs and they raise the outlook for business folks as they returned to the office. they want makeup, cosmetics, other personal care items. auto tech up 8.7% on the corner, but not so much for gap, down after having problems at old navy. apple having its best week on the year, it's really impressive. this year for apple on a weekly basis hasn't been great, but this week, up more than 7%. the stocks moving higher, we have been tracking apple relative to its 100 day moving average, so that is the or holding, suggesting the amounts we are seeing here could develop into something more. when stocks rallied, s&p 500 up more than 10%.
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finally, if we rounded out here, all sectors higher. we have all 11 s&p 500 sectors higher. discretionary, tech, financials, and at the bottom, communications. but on the year, only to sectors higher, energy and utilities. it might be the beginning of something good. alix: abigail, thanks a lot. we appreciate that. bloomberg's abigail doolittle. the nra's annual association meeting kicks off today, texas governor greg abbott and lieutenant governor dan patrick have now blocked out of the engagement -- dropped out of the engagement. the maker of the gun used in the shooting in texas is also pulling out of the convention -- what can you tell us? >> i am down in houston, the same area where they had the
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tragic shooting. it will be interesting to see who will be curtailing their language down there. a split decision among the republican senators, where ted cruz said i wouldn't miss it for the world, but john cornyn says he will not attend. the texas governor says he will not be there in person. he said he will submit something on tape, and the big headliner is drawn will -- donald trump. do they have to acknowledge that tragedy happened a couple days ago? anna: yeah, what they are there to talk about and that event will be interesting. david, situation such as these, you seem to do something. is there anything lawmakers will be able to do, given the political gridlock we have seen on this subject for so long? >> we have seen this before, whereafter sandy hook, people thought something would be done -- it didn't get done. senator john and says he wants
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to work on some sort of sensible gun safety legislation. mitch mcconnell said he is open to that, so they are at least talking about compromises and the possibility. at the same time, chuck schumer says he wants to move ahead, but he is doubt that they will get anything done. alix: we have been here before, david. david westin, thank you so much. he will have more on this topic in the next hour, so stick with him. he will be speaking with indiana's governor on bloomberg: balance of power. that does it for me and anna on television. i will be going to radio, 12:00 p.m. in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london. equities right around the highs of the session. led in part by technology stocks . pretty light, but we are at the end of may, so you notice the rebalancing going on as well. have a good weekend, everybody, see you on tuesday. this is bloomberg.
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this? this is supersonic wifi from xfinity. it's fast. like, ready-for- major-gig-speeds fast. like riding-a-cheetah fast. isn't that right, girl? whoa! it can connect hundreds of devices at once. [ in unison ] that's powerful. couldn't have said it better myself. and with three times the bandwidth, the gaming never has to end. slaying is our business. and business is good. unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything so you can do anything.
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>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power" with david westin. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radioie

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