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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  May 31, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EDT

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>> welcome to the european market open, a minute to go until the start of cash equity trading. i'm francine lacqua in london, and here are your top stories. eu leaders agreed to ban most russian oil, while brent jumps for the ninth straight day. china's economic contraction eases, signaling the worst of the lockdowns may be passed. the fed governor chris waller says he favors the basis point rate increases until inflation comes down. we had fluctuation, we started the day higher, and there is concern about ration, concern about brent, the euro stocks is down .5%, similar loss for the dax futures. the ftse futures down just .1%. there is more worries out there,
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this is a pattern we saw the last couple weeks, about how central banks will tackle inflation. technology did underpin stocks in china. treasury yields are jumping more than 10 basis points, joining a selloff in goons. german inflation is hitting an all-time high. today french inflation coming in pretty much in line with expectations. the commodities base is one we are watching out for. brent crude being supported, $123. the other thing we are watching for is this space, we focus a lot on the german 5, 10 and 30-year, but i would look at switzerland, a haven in the past. and the cac 40 with a bit of
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pressure, down .3%. let's have a look in more depth that what treasuries are doing. we did see the move in the u.s. 10-year yield at 2.8386, and the s&p futures down .2%. a reminder, we could see less volumes than in the past because yesterday was memorial day, and in the u.k. the platinum jubilee which means a lot of people will take the week off. let's get to our mliv editor, good morning, you are looking at the housing market? mark: housing data out of the u.s. the strength of the u.s. housing market will come out to help's -- how resilient the u.s. consumer will be, and a lot of that comes down to house prices.
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there is a lot of data, the index fell to the lowest reading since actually 1932. this chart goes back to 1999 actually. when it comes to house prices, consumers are not making a decision on whether they think house prices are going to go up or down, there is excess demand or supply, it is purely on affordability decision. this massive slump in the index is about the fact that mortgage rates have suddenly jumped up significantly, there has been this tightening of financial conditions, they are more worried about recession, and the cost of living squeeze, they are seeing savings in crypto and equities get destroyed a little bit. therefore, they are turning much more negative the market. you can ask what about the housing crisis in the mid to thousands? this is the slump here, it is kind of inversely correlated.
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but it is not the only thing you need to pay attention to. but in the housing market i think we are close to a peak in the u.s. i don't think we will have a collapse like the mid-2000's. manus: i think it is a good indicator to be looking at. let's get into key market drivers with our emea equity reporter, and karim chedid, strategist at blackrock investments. there is this worry that central banks because they are dealing with high inflation and oil prices, will put growth to one side. >> and with the latest news about the oil ban in the eu has passed, it may be a big political win against russian aggression but at the same time it is going to put more pressure on inflation, which beings bad news for risk assets, and
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equities specifically. because investors have been so threatened by this higher inflation and central banks frame to bite that. manus: and i guess they worry is even on a day when the markets are doing quite well, there is not much conviction out there that they can go higher. karim: when thinking about the inflation pressure that is building, we are seeing in the numbers in europe yesterday and today, and it has an impact on market pricing, looking at the rates market, on how fast the ecb is expected to tighten. although it is getting to a point where markets are a bit too hawkish relative to what we think would happen. >> does that mean you are expecting a correction? karim: actually, no. thinking about european rates markets and how much they are expecting the ecb to move, whilst the ecb is signaling and from negative rates pretty soon, once they exit we could be looking at a dovish pivot.
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a bit more volatility maybe in the near term, but as we go into q4, well into h2, we might see a better environment for risk. francine: here is what the federal bank governor christopher weller had to say on central bank normalization. >> i support tightening policy by another 50 basis points for several meetings, in particular, i am not taking 50 basis points hikes off the table until i see inflation coming down closer to our 2% target. francine: we were just hearing from the federal reserve governor there. are we going to be in this holding pattern of the markets worrying about inflation, looking at earnings, buying the dip until something happens, and what is that something? >> markets are always looking ahead.
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at this point with the selloff we have seen, with the s&p 500 learning with a bear market, i think at this point, the market has for the most part priced in the worst of the hawkish rhetoric. the next question is, what is going to come next? they are divided. morgan stanley saying there could be more downside, and the s&p 500 could drop 30%, because of the fed hawkish rhetoric continues and inflation is delhi. at the same time, you have citigroup saying there is opportunities dubai right now, but for the most part strategists are not so keen on u.s. markets because it is so much more expensive, so they are looking at is developing areas of the market and also europe, which is historically cheaper than the u.s.. francine: do you agree with that, because usually emerging markets in europe are cheaper for a reason. if the dollar rallies, you could
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be in trouble. karim: when you look at the overall equities complex, we have moderated our view. we were overweight, we are no neutral. i do agree, we are getting to this point where investors are asking have markets priced in enough? when we think about u.s. inflation, we may have passed the peak, in europe, it is not so clear, there may still be more volatility. francine: can i actually bring you to an inflation chart, we put this together looking at the price pressures coming from inflation across the board. in europe, if you break it down, that inflation surge, was also to do with airlines. there is two schools of thoughts, the ones that basically save we have almost
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reached peak inflation, but at what point is this inflation also put a lot of pressure on consumer spending? karim: that's a great point. we need to look at equity investing, when looking at equity sectors that we prefer, we need to think about the sectors where [indiscernible] his highest, where margins in consumer trends his highest, because it is going to start impacting consumers. we are going to start to see it come through. we have seen it in the warnings -- earnings guidance. sectors like health care and zoomers staples, which are more traditionally defensive, because this consumer theme is going to continue to be with us. francine: to the earnings point, i don't know whether that changes the direction of markets, but it could be a big wake-up call on the kinds of
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inflation and the impact it has on supply chains. >> what's been interesting is so far in earnings season, the first quarter numbers were surprisingly strong, especially in europe. in the u.s., they held up pretty well also. earnings have proven resilient to the economic slowdown fears. a big factor was that analysts cut their expectations quite early on in the year. we did have the invasion in late february, so they did have time to expectations. so far, companies have been able to be that, but let's see what the cost pressures and supply chain issues tell us, because second-quarter numbers might be much more negative. francine: what's surprising to me is we have just come back from davos, nobody could get the fact -- their head around the fact that there was no snow, but if you are a supply chain manufacturer, you have a problem because you don't
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know whether to pass on costs are not. the price elasticity, is this being underestimated in future expectation for earnings? karim: i think it is starting to get reflected in learning expectations, i agreed, we started to see those downgrades come through especially in europe. i have to go back to regional and sector selectivity, because we can't answer one answer for all, across-the-board. when you look at the u.s., for example, and you look at sectors like tech, some of the larger cap tech stocks are well-placed in terms of having cash, in terms of being able to christian some of that cost and not pass it to the consumer. when you look at more cyclical sectors, especially consumer cyclicals, they are going to have to pass it. francine: we will see what happens. unilever is up 7% as nelson
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peltz has been named executive director, it seems the traders like that. thanks to much to our emea equities editor, and karim chedid stays with us, we will talk about btp's next. chinese manufacturing still contracting, but at a slower pace. we will have more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. 14 minutes into the european trading day. the euro stoxx down .4%. treasury selling off, crude oil jumping, this is adding to how aggressive central banks need to be to deal with inflation, and their concern it will hurt growth. china's manufacturing pmi s hrank at a slower place in may, for more, we are joined by our chief asia economics correspondent enda, what's the key take away from the data today? >> there were some positive signs no doubt. new orders were stronger, new export orders were stronger, and employment in the manufacturing sector ticking up.
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delivery times are getting shorter per manufacturers which is crucial. the pmi is still below the key 50 level which means it is still in contractionary territory, so it does suggest that sector has hit the bottom, as the shanghai reopening gets underway. and it looks like beijing has dodged a lockdown, it also speaks to help our a still has to go. there is still a lot of headwinds both domestically linked to the aggressive covid zero strategy, and externally now with global trade slowing down as well. definitely a hint that the bottom may have come, but i think there is a way to go yet. francine: and we have that sharp looking at chinese pmi's. there is another story looking at chinese banks overflowing with cash nobody wants because of confidence being crushed, how
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do we know when the economy is over the worst? >> this is an interesting thing, francine. the authorities have put more money into the pockets of the banks through other channels. official data shows there is not a huge appetite for borrowing right now. authorities are taking steps around maybe tax rebates for smaller companies, or taking measures to support property prices, or encourage car buying, for example. but all this, hinges on confidence returning, and confidence cannot return until there is a clear sense that china is pulling clear of the virus, or is going to tweak its covid zero approach. cases have collapsed, beijing has escaped a lockdown, but we can't be confident that there won't be ongoing restrictions
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throughout the months ahead given how transmissible be omicron variant is. signs that there is a bottom, but a lot of uncertainty as to how covid zero strategy of china plays out from here. francine: karim chedid, investment strategist at black rock, how do you play china? karim: thinking about china across equities and bonds, we are neutral on both areas. on china bonds, we are seeing investors still think of it as a source of income, especially when you look at the government bonds. the 10 year yield is no longer trading at a discount to u.s. 10 year yields, as it was before, so that did impact some positioning from investors. but we are still seeing investors look at it as a source of portfolio correlation, given
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the low correlation to both em and dm bonds. francine: does china have to be a longer-term play? karim: those diversification plays do come through more strongly in portfolios. in the near term, there is still some uncertainty about the zero covid strategy. there is also uncertainty about the fiscal impulse, and just how much will be delivered, and whether it is enough. francine: talk to me a little bit about etp's, you really go through the nitty-gritty, like the outflows and what it gives us for market sentiment. karim: there is so much to talk about in flow land at the moment. [laughter] francine: flor land. karim: w have not see a dash for cash, and that is
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important. we have seen a slowdown in equity buying, although u.s. equities are coming back in may, having a strong month so far. when we dig down of the sector level, we are seeing more defensive tilts, but definitely not a dash for cash. francine: is that because they have conviction in markets, or because they have nowhere else to put their money? karim: one thing i love you look at is the money market fund flows chart. if you look at the start of the year, money market fund flows were already stubbornly high. so, if you start the year with high cash positions, why would you put even more in cash when it is all about market timing? if it you exit, it is hard to time the reentry.
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francine: if you are to be in cash, what currency do you use, given the volatility of those he we saw from the dollar rally -- that we saw from the dollar rally? karim: there is the interest rate differentials, the dollar could continue to be well bid, although we are starting to see some investors move into em fx, em local debt is coming back into the below picture. francine: karim with an eagle eye view of the markets, and a view of flow land, from blackrock. telecom italia is seeking $21 million for its landline network.
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that's coming up next and this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. 23 minutes into the european trading day, seeing pressure on the european stoxx 600, inflation going up, the price of oil going up because of the embargo on russian oil, and that
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is putting traders on the back foot of saying if central banks move too fast to curb inflation, will they heard world growth? this is the big picture per world movers, there is quite a lot of m&a activity. dsm purchasing the swiss firm, gaining almost 10%. unilever with the story of an activist investor nelson peltz who is known for shaping up retail, named as a non-executive director, investors liking that. credit suisse with pressure, stock down 2.8%. now for the bloomberg business flash. laura: telecom italia is said to be seeking evaluation of $20 billion for the landline network it plans to sell to a state lender and international funds. it would allow the monopoly to
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cut its debt pile. on sunday, it announced its plan to sell off the debt network, shifting control to italian states. pimco has a meeting to decide whether russian swap credit defaults will pay out. the income fund it sold more than $100 million of the securities to banks, including barclays and jp morgan in the first quarter. u.s. investor todd boaley has completed his $5.4 billion takeover of chelsea football club, after 20 years of ownership under russian billionaire roman abramovich, who is forced to sell over sanctions. the deal means that for the first time more than half of the teams in the english premier league are now backed by american money. hon hai iphone maker expects
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supply chain backups to ease. he told new shareholders the company is more upbeat about the 20 sales outlook. they are apple's biggest assembly partner. francine: laura wright in london. eu leaders agreed to pursue a partial ban on russian oil, we will look ahead to their meeting today, and discuss inflation. our maria tadeo is on the ground. markets putting a lot of pressure, trying to work through higher inflation and the higher cost of oil, for how aggressive central banks will need to be to rein in inflation. the euro stoxx 600 to down .4%, technology stocks underpinning some gains in europe, but worries about inflation underpinning everything else. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. we are 30 minutes into the european trading day and hear your top stories. eu leaders agreed to ban most russian oil, paving the way for sanctions on putin. brent jumped for the ninth straight day. china's economic contraction eases, signaling the worst of the lockdowns may be passed, mainland of stoxx climb. waller says he favors 50 basis point rate hikes until inflation comes down. let's take a look at sectors on the move. the pressure not only in technology, where we saw the most moving, now i have energy and consumer goods on the higher side, but real estate, travel, technology, financial services and construction all on the way down between one and 1.2%.
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european leaders have come together to ban most russian oil, it paves the way for sanctions to punish russia and putin for the invasion of ukraine. we heard from the european commission president on the measures. >> this is an important step forward. the remaining 10%, we will soon return the to the issue. we are joined by our european economics reporter in frankfurt. maria, how significant is this agreement? maria: it is significant, and i would argue it is more significant than what we were expecting yesterday. there is a lot of negativity around this package being approved.
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today we have a deal which the european's will immediately reduce seabourne imports by two thirds, and it germany stops pipeline oil, it will be 90%. it is more meaningful than what we were briefed on yesterday. i just spoke with the belgian prime minister who told me when you look at this package overall, oil has a very significant impact on russia. it is necessary to take a moment to breathe and then talk about further sanctions on the road. francine: so, what else is dominating the discussion? there is a lot of work on inflation, and the read across to what that means for the ecb? maria: and francine, it will be about the food crisis. a lot of leaders suggesting today that this is a real concern.
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you talk about the inflationary pressure, and the pressure on the european consumer, this is also about avoiding a full-blown crisis in agriculture by the end of the year. they say there is right now 22 tons of grain that have been blocked by the russians, and they have called on the europeans to help unblock the flow of this grain to avoid this food crisis that has a lot of people worried not just on the economic impact, but potentially social unrest. francine: thank you so much, mario today out live from the european commission, and she just got up with the belgian prime minister. he was saying that member states need to coordinate their defense. let's now cross over to our european economics reporter, j ana, if you are the ecb looking at this, looking at the inflation number from france, and you are getting more pressure on your monetary policy?
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jana: we saw inflation being stronger than expected in spain yesterday, and germany as well, now germany looking at an inflation rate of nearly 9%. that is definitely significant. the ecb president lagarde and her colleagues have said their response will be data dependent. if you take that at face value, then certainly, they will have a tough discussion ahead. the president has said they will use their june meeting to decide on ending asset purchases very early in july, and that a july with dolph later than in the month is in the cards, with negative rates ending in september. and some policymakers are pushing for faster action, and the data that we have seen over the past days will give them ammunition to argue their case. francine: so, what exactly are we expecting from the ecb?
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i guess german inflation was a shock. but given we have the breakdown of countries, it will just be higher-than-expected. jana: inflation is likely to be higher-than-expected. we're getting data in just over than 90 minutes, and then we will see. what's probably more important for the ecb in this decision are the june projections which will show how inflation will develop through 2024. i've spoken to a few governing council members over the past days and they said it is likely the rate will be above 2%, which is the ecb's medium-term target also, in 2024. and that gives them a good reason to really start normalizing policy and at least get to the neutral rate. francine: if you look at money markets, they are wagering 113
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basis points rate increases by year end, that's up ally last friday. will this just bumped what money markets are expecting? jana: the ecb has been very definite on this policy going until the end of the third quarter. what's slightly uncertain is how that will continue toward the end of the year. there the economic outlook will decide. and there is just so much uncertainty, we've seen a revision to french economic performance at the start of the year, they have posted a small contraction now. if that continues, if the russian war, if supply chain problems continue to persist, that will have an impact, and we will have to see. but for now, four hikes, is what some policymakers would call perfectly appropriate. francine: jana randow, our
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european economics reporter in frankfurt. she always has huge breaking news. we are getting some breaking news out of china also. china cutting its purchase tax for some passenger vehicles by half. we will have plenty more of course, on china. some carmakers, vw now in the green, mercedes in the green, this has to do with the energy transition and the price of oil building up. it was very interesting speaking to our markets live editor mark at the 7:00 hour together, and he was saying even if markets are on the rise, it is not with much conviction. that would be the name of the game, i think, for the next couple of weeks. now let's cross over to maria with a great interview. she spoke to the latvian prime minister, maria, take it away. maria: he is joining us right
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here, the latvian prime minister. thank you for joining us, and for your country, you have been incredibly outspoken on this russian war, where you said we have to go very top and a will not serve any purpose. when you look at the package that was agreed yesterday on this oil embargo, is this a step in the right direction, how much damage will it inflict? p.m. karins: it's absolutely a step in the right direction. this is the sixth sanctions package. we are tightening the screws on russia's economy. this will cut about two thirds of russian oil experts to the eu oil and gas are the biggest revenues for the state funding the war, so this is a big step in the right direction. the good news is, three-month at the start of the war, notwithstanding the economic
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pressures that we deal, we are still united, we can still without great difficulty decide on the next sanction around, and we are putting ever more pressure on britain's economy. maria: germans and poland also agreed to cut down on russian oil exports. i wonder about viktor orban and the hungarians who see this as a victory, there is confusion about the exemptions, how do you go about this? p.m. karins: everyone is spinning this may be a little bit differently for their own home auditorium. but at the end of the day, each country has different infrastructure. and there is a challenge for countries that are landlocked. we have numerous ports and options to import products from all over the world. other countries that are fixed into a pipeline network or landlocked, it's easy to say we should just get rid of that today. but in reality, sometimes it takes a little bit of time.
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it's a small exemption that is on a timeline basis with poland and germany already saying they are going to stop by the end of the year, that's about six months from now. that will be about 90%, as you say. so, we are moving absolutely in the right direction. also, hungary has agreed to move in this direction, they argue because they are landlocked, it actually does make sense to give them more time to get the infrastructure in place. maria: help me understand the mood behind closed doors. the public criticism has been that hungary facilitates the russian narrative. viktor orban told me that this is fake news. what was the mood behind closed doors, do you fear that this is going to become a problem? p.m. karins: no, actually the mood is very constructive from everyone. we did not have an argument, we
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had a rather technical debate on how we could do it. it was not whether or should we do it, it was how we can best do it, and everyone is in this together. there are no big arguments. the media likes to pick out and sometimes some of us say things that give food for the media but at the end of the day we are united in europe, and this is a big step in the right direction. maria: constructive on viktor orban. i want to ask, you kept on coal and oil, the obvious question is now gas. the impact of oil will be huge before we move into anything else, i understand that some baltic countries are already pushing for what is next, where we going to tackle gas? p.m. karins: we've said from february 24 it should be a full energy embargo, oil coal and gas.
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therefore the war we are were 90% russian gas dependent, we are no longer buying any gas from russia. we are sourcing differently through lng. we have a physically means to do this. for other countries, there are infrastructural issues. but i think we should talk about the next step, and that in my view is obviously, gas. it will be somewhat more difficult because gas is more restricted in the way you can transport it. you can put oil in lori's and move it around easily, to move guys around, you need specialized equipment, you need coolants to liquefy it, and this is expensive. maria: the fundamental question is, the war in ukraine and what viktor looks like, they have to win, but what does victory
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actually mean? what is victory in your eyes? p.m. karins: that is followed a mere zelenskyy -- that is followed a mere -- volodomyr zelenskyy saying it. the war will be long as long as russia continues to invade. the day that russia decides it is too expensive, they cannot win, the war will end quickly. so, our mission must be to support ukraine. support it militarily and financially, and they're putting all these economic sanctions on russia, to diminish their ability to wage war in ukraine. maria: chancellor schultz was here, macron was here, there
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has been criticism that the phone calls should stop, was there tension about let's stop it with the phone calls? p.m. karins: there was discussion about this as well. i also don't see the point of talking with someone who is committing genocide in a neighboring country. putin will talk when he feels that he is losing. so, that should be our goal. of course, the perception in various countries around europe, from the citizens, is different. in the baltics, we have one perception. perhaps in germany or italy or portugal there is a somewhat different perception, and all leaders are in the end speaking to their electorate. the important thing is regardless of some things we say to the outside, we are all firmly united in our goal of supporting ukraine and making sure russia loses this war. maria: and the baltics have said
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maybe if the west listened a little bit more, some of these issues could have been avoided. always good seeing you, thank you so much. francine: maria: that was latvia's prime minister joining us on bloomberg. you can see some of the cracks on what potentially happens next, it gas is an issue and it needs to be talked about. francine: but also very touching to say who are we to say, when actually it is up to president zelenskyy to decide that. maria tadeo in brussels with the latvian prime minister. european stocks stand to benefit after global regulators agreed to treat the area as one market when it comes to capital lending requirements. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. 48 minutes into the european trading day. just thought was a holding strong, .2% higher. the european stocks down .4%. the european commission looks to pass a rule change that would treat the mainlanders as one market, that could facilitate cross-border consolidation in the sector. according to document seen by headquarters, with external
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european risks as external ones, big european banks rose on the news. let's get to our finance reporter out of zurich, exactly what is the significance of this basel ruling? >> european union banks have long complained that they compete on unfair playing ground with u.s. banks because of this higher capital surcharge. two banks in europe stand to benefit, that is bnp party bus -- paribas and deutsche bank. as you rightly said, this good maybe help foster dialogue around consolidation in europe, and potentially help europe create a big enough bank that could really compete with u.s. banks globally. francine: there have also been some reports that credit suisse was planning to raise capital,
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so what is next for the bank? >> this is a tough year for credit suisse. the markets are not great right now for raising capital, if they are looking at that, hopefully it is later this year, when markets turn around. generally speaking, there capital provisions are fine right now. that could start to look tricky by the end of next year if the trend of their performance continues on this risky losses trend. francine: marion with some great reporting for us on the ground looking at all be swiss and european banks. coming up, the miracle green fuel that may actually make climate change worse. we talk hydrogen next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. 53 minutes into the european trading day, pressure on the european stocks, down half a percent. the dax accelerating losses, down .7%. the extra sanctions the eu will put on russia is pushing oil higher and giving investors concerned that inflation will go up, and that could be a policy mistake from central banks.
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it has been hailed as a miracle fuel that can power ships, factories and planes without pumping carbon dioxide into the air, but scientists are now warning that hydrogen carries many risks, including climate change. that is the subject of today's bloomberg big take. is this a real concern, the fact that this fuel that we thought was a fuel of the future now could not be as green as initially thought? >> so, the problem with gases in general, is that they could become greenhouse gases. they trap heat if they leak into the atmosphere. we note that methane which is a major component of natural gas, when it enters the atmosphere, it captures 80 times they heat that carbon dioxide does. what scientists are now warning is that hydrogen, which is a green fuel, you are right, it
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has a huge potential to be setting that climate change,. also have -- could also be extending the life of methane in the atmosphere and could be actually 30 times worse than carbon dioxide. it is a warning to investors that if you are going to build hydrogen infrastructure, which there is tens of billions of dollars being put towards, make sure it does not leak. francine: is there anything that can be done in the next quarters to mitigate the problems with hydrogen? >> fortunately, we are not facing the problem right now. the point of this article is that as investors built this infrastructure, they ensure that there are no leaks. we know from oil and gas infrastructure, there is a lot of methane that has been leaking and causing havoc, so we should
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try and avoid that with hydrogen. that is the main point. francine: leaks are the worst, and we saw it with methane, is that actually true? >> with every technology, it tends to be a double-edged sword. it can do good if used in the proper way, and can cause problems if not. hydrogen's warning right now is exactly that, if in the building of this infrastructure, hydrogen boilers, if we don't ensure that it does not leak, then we could be making the problem worse, not better. francine: bloomberg green joining us on this wonderful big take. surveillance early edition is up next. for the moment, european stocks are down half a percent. this is bloomberg. ♪
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