tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg June 3, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT
dani: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm dani burger in london, alongside manus cranny in dubai. the stories that set your agenda. manus: the fed's lael brainard says there is no case for positing rate hikes in september. stops climbed on today's key u.s. jobs report. saudi arabia and opec+ agreed to increasing oil production, but goldman saiz is it is not enough.
european leaders approve a sixth round of sanctions, as fighting in eastern ukraine rages on. dani, larry fink throws his fists into the function, and if you think it is about asset allocation, it is going to change more dramatically than we all anchor. -- think. dani: larry fink says hold onto your hats. we had miserable edp data out yesterday, and we are back in the environment where bad news is good news yet again. strong jobs data head us pricing in fed hikes. let me take you into today's equity market when it comes to futures, it seems that anything that keeps the fed from being less aggressive is greeted with even arms by equities. we saw a rally in u.s. equities, a little follow-through in europe .7%.
we are reminding everybody a lot of equity markets are closed, china, hong kong as well as the u.k. with another day of the queen's jubilee. closed under 25% yesterday, the first time in six weeks. typically, we get some systematic buying coming into the picture. so we could see some buyers coming with volatility dropping yesterday. manus: i'm so glad that you show the volatility. the correct way rather than my folly. if anybody thinks we are in for a bumpy ride at negative selling volatility into this. an american and an irishman talking about the jubilee, there you go. let's talk about the oil markets. suddenly the market seems to have paused, the 600,000 extra
barrels was not a silver bullet, it was a minnow versus a big headline. 10's rights this morning. lael brainard chuck's cold water on the idea that you are going to have a pause on the -- from the fed. the dollar rises as the market price is the probability of a 50 basis point height in july from the ecb. those naughty swaps traders getting ahead of the curve and ecb. gold defies me, three weeks of gains and then it turns into the red. these markets will not behave themselves when i to this report. john has the latest on the jobs data, and here in the middle east, our energy reporter to talk oil. manus: we also have our senior editor for asia finance on the losses that tiger global, and
juliette saly has more on speculation about further bank tightening in asia. it is jobs day in the u.s., data for the month of may will show the smallest gain in employment since 2021, after yesterday's miserable edp figures. lael brainard says 50 basis points for next month are reasonable. how did those comments a this current conversation around that policy? >> happy jobs day to both of you. this seems to be coming almost daily now. it seems like just yesterday we were talking about bullard's 75 basis point height rumor, and the thought that that may be on the table for the summer months. we are now cementing a realistic expectation of those 50 basis point hikes that lael brainard
talked about in her remarks. this whole idea about what to do from september is the new twist, the next level we are taking this conversation to now. the thought that they are going to move forward and carry this momentum into the hall and beyond perhaps, is adding a touch of hawkishness to the debate this week. we have rafael bostic in the minority still, saying a pause in september might make sense. there is a lot of nuance, they want to keep their options open. but he seems to be in that minority where most of the fed wants to maintain momentum and shout they are bona fide fighting inflation. this comes in a week we have seen janet yellen talk about regrets and not seeing ukraine and supply chain risks coming, and inflation hitting faster than anyone expected. all this is kind of pushing
forward, making the fed want to see more reliable. manus: this all plows into the jobs data, and we are expecting a slowdown in the headline jobs. it's a crazy jobs market, it is so hot, so tight. if we get a big slowdown in this headline number, what is that do? >> just to your point, it seems silly to think of 325,000 as a small number, but that is the tightness of the labor market. we did see the adp data showing businesses slowing down. for that that, it might give them some breathing room. this is what they are expecting to see, some slowdown in the labor market. they don't want to see it too fast, but they are trying to achieve that soft landing and it is tricky right now. just a couple things for this jobs report, we do want to look at sectors that should be slow in the months ahead.
housing market, construction jobs are likely to take a hit with higher borrowing costs, hopefully those don't slow down too much read tech is under fire from the investment side. and we have got goods producing sectors all across the board that are suffering from the shift to consumers spending on services rather than goods. lots to watch on top of the wage growth, we did not get to the good inflation everyone hopes to see but perhaps they will not be enough in this report. manus: we will listen to larry fink, it will be with us for a long time. to the oil market, heading for a sixth weekly gain in the united states of america, as be closely watched opec meeting only delivered a major increase in output. according to the head of commodities research at goldman sachs, this height does not really change anything.
>> i think the key message here, as you distribute potential russians apply across other members of opec, they can't even hit their court all right now. they already significantly constrained in their ability to increase, with the exception of saudi arabia and uae. when we think about how does this change the fundamental picture, when we go to september or october, it does not do anything, and that is why the market is really. manus: let's bring in our middle east energy markets reporter, interesting isn't it, headline 57% increase in july and august. bobby was with me 30 minutes ago, he said it was an elegant writing of the needle. >> they are saying it is a small increase, not enough of the market. what we are talking about going into this meeting is the
expectation was opec was just going to hold the line and go ahead with this 432,000 barrel a day increase in monthly production, and that was going to hold through july, august and september. they have moved forward those increases from september, and they are adding 200,000 or so barrels. that is the additional bit, and that is tiny. also, opec+ has not been producing what it was supposed to produce under the quotas anyway. a lot of people are saying, they're going to come up with about half that number, maybe 300,000 barrels that the market. that 200,000 was already underwhelming, we saw that in prices. if they bring only half that, that will be only more underwhelming. manus: anthony to paolo, our middle east energy markets reporter. one big name that is feeling the brunt of the market volatility, tiger global where losses have reached 52% this year, prompting
the firm to create separate redemption accounts for some illiquid securities. we are joined by our senior editor for asia finance, david, this is another tech heavy fund that continues to suffer this year. what does it need that they are making such exceptions allowing investors to redeem, and what are the market implications? i think we might be having a little issue with david's audio. we will try to get back to him shortly. this is interesting, you have them putting their vc investments in a separate bucket, allowing people to redeem illiquid funds. as we go to the next few months, are we going to see capitulation as hedge fund start to redeem into this market? manus: this place to the point that valerie, our queen of
charges making this morning, you have seen no major reallocation of assets thus far, even in a 20% drawdown on the essen the, -- s&p, and a 30% drawdown on nasdaq. let's get to expectations for further tightening, it is going to affect sentiment in asia. jules is wrapping it all in terms of the fed commentary with the release from captivity this week in china. >> we are looking ahead to central-bank action in asia. you mentioned these swaps traders earlier, the swaps between the three and 10 year in australia are at the widest since 2016. back in march, it was just four basis points as we look ahead to a potentially more hawkish rba next week, market suggesting a rate hike from 25 to 50 basis points.
a little weakness in the aussie today, it has been getting a boost from the china reopening theme. that is supporting the offshore yuan which has jumped to a one-month high against the greenback, trading at 6.63 as we see upward momentum for this currency. let's look at what else we are looking for in terms of central-bank action in the region. we had a hot inflation rate out of south korea, 5.4% for may versus 5.1% expected, this is the fastest pace we have seen since august 2008, adding to the likelihood of more rate from the bank of korea. they have hiked five times since august. we have heard governor rhee saying they are trying to get ahead of inflation, similar to central bankers around the globe. manus: dani: heart -- hard to
find a cpi chart that does not look like that when these days. let's take a look at some key events we will be following today. our markets, it is the 100th day of war in ukraine, the humanitarian crisis and economic toll continued to build. we have seen higher food prices and supply constraints. the u.n. release its monthly food price index today. manus: u.s. data hits the tape, guess what it is, jobs day. jobs day, how does that impact the fed? we are going on holiday rather than buying things, amid early signs the consumer shift is on the way. we mentioned it is jobs day, adp data showing u.s. companies at the fewest jobs last month since the pandemic recovery began. we will get our first conversation on the markets
>> i don't believe the federal reserve has the policy or the tools to do much with it right now. and i'm not blaming the federal reserve for where we are right now. but i believe most of the problems we are living with today are more policy generated, then supply generated. dani: the blackrock ceo weighing in on the inflation story. and manus, it is not just friday, it is not just the queens jubilee, it is also nonfarm payrolls day. how we are pricing in that that tightness is so important when it comes to jobs. the adp figures showing the fewest jobs added in the month of may since the pandemic
recovery began. manus: echoing jamie dimon's comments, -- has warned on the outlook, saying this is among the most complex environments i have seen in my career. fighting talk coming from goldman sachs, tatjana puhan, is the deputy chief investment officer at tobam. goldman sachs says it is the tapas markets they have seen in their lives. clearly, this selloff has the potential to grow much further. you are not convinced we have seen the worst, is that a jumping off point for this conversation? tatjana: what we have been warning during the last few years of a huge increase in risk concentrations in the markets. you can see a small relaxation,
but it is not a complete reversion and there is still a long way to go for it. what markets underestimated is the risk that inflation is going to persist, that supply disruptions will become worse. the ukraine conflict, a lot has been priced in, but asset allocations have not adjusted yet. dani: we've seen the nasdaq fall into a bear market, down 21%. the s&p has been flirting with the bear market. if we are not been seeing the worst, where does that actually show up? tatjana: first of all, the large cap segment of the market is the biggest, 10 or 15% of stocks and have a huge excess of valuation because their earnings expectations are still priced in that might potentially be
reverted when investors realize future growth is going to be very dependent on what i expected. what i see is the biggest potential for reversal, and the biggest market correction so far, rather than the smaller growth stocks. in the large-cap segment there is a lot more reversion potential. manus: well done on attending the central bank conference, but my gosh, you are for the jugular. you are saying the ecb has done a terrible job and the people of europe will pay a terrible price. the swaps traders are getting punchy, this is the direction of travel, the market has managed to price itself into a frenzy -- the probability of a 50 basis point hike in europe, do we need it, should we do it, and how much more should they do if they are doing such a terrible job?
tatjana: definitely, the earlier they start hiking, the better. as we can see, inflation rates are high in europe and we are not at the end yet. it is not transitory, it is something that is going to persist. 50 basis points in july and at the end of the year, from my point of view, this is the minimum they can do and probably they should go further. obviously, the question is what is the economy going to do, and will they have the courage to keep going, but when the pepp continues hiking rates, the situation from the ecb will get more difficult. if you see the hawks and the doves in the ecb, it is clear how much the opinions are diverging. dani: on that note, you might
see 50 basis points coming at the end of the year. you've seen jumbo hikes from other central banks, we have this chart, the bank of canada and the rbz, and jumbo is not the word of the day but it is the word of the year, for manus. have we really grasped what it means to have policy tightening for 5% across major economies? we know how this will actually show up in growth and earnings? tatjana: today nobody has a concrete idea of this. it is super complex to estimate, it depends on too many other variables around. it depends on supply, how c
ommodity prices will react, and ukraine, on environment were so many pieces are moving, so it is hard to estimate what will be the actual impact. you need to remember we still have so much excess liquidity in the system that central banks need to get this under control if they don't want inflation to get completely out of control. dani: i know you went to the central-bank conference, but it sounds like he might have also been talking with larry fink. great to have you on the program, tatjana puhan, managing director and deputy chief investment officer at tobam. the ceo of the world's largest asset manager says he expects inflation to remain more elevated for years. we will bring that interview with blackrock's larry fink. ♪
we witnessed a change of policy in the federal reserve. we raised short rates, so we saw a recalibration across stocks, and yet the indexes are masking some of the problems because there are energy commodities that are up quite a bit. so if you look at the volatility and the spread between winners and losers, it is pretty broad this year. we have taken out a lot of the gains that we saw during the covid years, the two years when we were changing our lives and emphasizing different companies. now we are seeing the reverse impact of that. but now, there is greater reckoned mission -- recognition that inflation is probably with us for a number of years. and it is the type of inflation that i don't believe the federal reserve has the policy or the tools to do much with it right now. i'm personally not blaming them for where we are right now, but i believe most of the problems
we are living with today are more policy and supply generated. demand right now in our economy is equivalent to the demand we saw pre-covid, so we are witnessing early supply shocks and that is creating price increases, so it is more supply driven. it has been aggravated by covid and lockdowns in different parts of the world where we are manufacturing goods, and further aggravated by the ukraine russian war, but i have this fundamental view that much of the inflation has been generated by some very large policy shifts in the united states. >> just before that, we have jamie dimon talking about a hurricane potentially. what's the chance of recession, not so much in this year but in 2023 or beyond? >> he said one outcome may be a
hurricane, i know that is so perfect for the media, i can see scenarios where it can be quite bad. another downward trap of significance, and that is going to be dependent on earnings going forward. but i can also see a scenario where we are going to be muddling along for the next year or two right around this level, may be up 5%, down 10%, but we will be in this range bound area until we have better information. what i can say with total certainty is that we are going to be living with more uncertainty. we are going to have bouts of fear and confidence. we have not witnessed huge asset allocation changes by our investors. dani: larry fink warning of bouts of fear to come.
>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai, dani burger in london. dani: no time for a breather, the fed's lael brainard says there is no case for pausing rate hikes in september. saudi arabia and opec+ agreed to increase oil production, but goldman says it is not enough. 100 days of war. european leaders approve a sixth round of sanctions as fighting in eastern europe rain rages on. happy friday and happy jobs day, we are back in the environment where bad news is good news, the
week adp they tear allowed some corners of the market to rally, but perhaps equities got a little ahead of themselves. manus: jumbo, i love that word, it is tom keene with a martini in hand just screaming jumbo at the screen. certainly, opec delivered a little bit of oil, but it was not a jumbo change in the supply. let's get a quick snapshot of markets, oil did rob hire even though you added over 600,000 barrels of oil, how much will make it to market? lael brainard there is water over the idea of a september pause, the euro-dollar rises, 1.0 754 a long way from parity, and gold is up for the third week in a row. dani: i love the idea that we are describing everything as to whether it is jumbo or not. but let me say, moves in
equities are not jumbo today. the euro stoxx usurers playing a little catch up, up .8%. the u.k. and china are closed. mastec futures are higher than 30 minutes ago, still just drifting waiting for jobs data. will it show that the vet tightening is having an impact on the labor market, or will it add fuel to the fire. vix below 25 for the first time in six weeks, that often puts buyers into the market. the other important pricing note, yesterday we got a historic pricing within the ecb, 50 basis points, jumbo, coming in december. manus: we got bit on the gtv life. we just had the conversation with tatjana puhan, she says the 50 basis points or just be a given in july, and another 50 by
the end of the year. i was taken aback, but she went to a central bank conference so maybe she is just in trauma therapy. this is the short end of the market, and it is telling you overnight rates are ratcheting higher rate this comes into the jumbo world, doesn't it? canada, rnbz, the fed, all of them being carried into 50s, how far behind with the ecb be? dani: that's an important point, because tightening is hardly a u.s. phenomenon. this is a global one. as we were talking to tatjana puhan about, she says we don't have a grasp on what that will actually mean for the economy, for earnings and corporate's as well. manus: and how much far ahead are the emerging markets in that hiking cycle relative to the fed, relative to the ecb? holtzman made it clear, the ecb
should hike by 50 basis to show our resolve. larry fink saying it is not all in the back of the central bank to get this under control, it is a supply-side event, don't you know? but speaking of which, the oil markets are up for the sixth week in a row. europe is only up with that third week in a row. nymex crude up 14% in the past 30 days. closely watching opec+, the meeting delivering a major increase in output, according to goldman sachs, the oil market is going to get much tighter over the summer. >> china is coming out of lockdowns right now, and they are stimulating. then we throw on top of that a very strong travel season, people have not gone out in two and a half years, you see that in plane bookings.
and you have russian production getting materially tighter. this market is going to get significantly tighter as we look out towards the summer months. manus: karma bull jeff currie. anthony dipaolo, karma bull of the middle east markets, is here with us. let's step back, we have this six under 35,000 barrels -- six in of 5000 barrels -- 635,000 barrels hitting the market, but is this symbolic between biden? >> you saw a lot of speculation about something big coming out of that meeting. the market was underwhelmed, but we see oil taking a little breather, but we are higher now
than we were going in. that shows you what we were expecting. this increase is not going to be enough to quell those price increases. and it's not going to be in up to quell the speculation about what could come in a bigger deal. there was a lot of talk about biden traveling to saudi arabia, to reach a deal on security and oil, revived that 70-year-old security agreement, and weapons for oil, basically. there will be speculation throughout the month to see if the saudis do more. and the big date is the midterm elections in november in the united states, and biden wants to see lower oil is is in the states -- prices in the states. dani: it is a type market if you look at the backwardation on brent. and europe just approved it
tighter bound russian oil. >> that's going to take barrels off the market. we have already seen some russian supply decreasing. they don't have the markets, so they have to shut that production at home. depriving rush of these outlets for their crude is what you make it harder to sell and produce, that will create tightness in the markets. russia is looking to china and india to sell those discounted barrels, and that is going to push some oil elsewhere. but still we are looking at barrels coming off, and that is going to make it even tighter, that will call on opec to come back into the market. once we are out of this opec+ deal after august, we don't know what will happen, the ministers don't seem to know, so it is going to be a push of whether they can bring more oil on, saudi, uae and iraq, those are the ones that have the spare capacity and are going to be the ones we have to look at. manus: when you go back and listen to bob mcnally, and i
encourage people to do later on, he said americans don't want saudi to go all in like they did in 2008. they want this elegant threading of the needle. where you sitting there thinking, he got that wrong? >> i don't think it matters, because we are only going to get about half of that come to the market. so we are only looking at about 3 -- manus: 648,000, sorry everybody, it is my mea culpa of the day. dani: i always assume you are correct. let's continue the oil conversation, joining us now is nadia, oil analyst at pareto. can opec hit those production
targets? >> we think they will increase production by 250,000 barrels per day, so it does to the balance in the third quarter. which would have been the steepest quarterly draw they have had this year. at one million barrels a day, it is not enough, but it does show that opec is willing to increase production now because trying to prevent $150 or $180 as a scenario. but it is gasoline and diesel prices that are the problem. this is where in our view at pareto we find $120 a barrel oil cheap. so that is where we don't see that demand destruction, and that's fair refining capacity really sits in china. it doesn't sit in your. -- europe. manus: ok, so -- welcome to the
show, it is your first outing on bloomberg. making calls, we like it. which call, so i would say it will be gas, where does demand destruction kick in? >> as an ex-trader, there is never a -- things can go where they need to go, or they can keep going higher. the gasoline price of five dollars a barrel or six dollars a barrel is uncertain, the market is still liquid, and people are still stuck at home, they are not going to cancel their holiday because of that price. so there is a lot of space for the oil price to go higher. the previous high we had was 180 plus dollars a barrel,
inflation-adjusted. so there is space. but the main concern is opec is going to get us through probably this summer and this year, but the start of next year is where we are in a very serious situation. when you look at 2014 which was a boom and bust year, and things looked even tighter because opec's spare capacity was 1.4 million barrels a day at best, and it was 1.8 million barrels a day in 2014. dani: what if china comes back online, how does that complicate the picture? nadia: it will make it scary in terms of overall global demand being higher. but in the fourth quarter refineries in china will alleviate things into year and once we have gone through summer. but next year we are starting in such a tight situation when the u.s. is just not ramping up
production. we are not going to start to see more u.s. oil in bulk coming before the second quarter of next year, so that is where we are concerned this is just not enough. we are super bullish as a result. manus: what happens if europe sanctions russian gas? nadia: that is the way we put the maximum political pressure on russia. i think we are already anticipating maximum switching in terms of gas to oil. gas supplies into europe will probably be around 13 to 15% lower than what our expected demand profile is, and that is a big deal. it is that central and eastern part the most, not so much germany, which has been the focus. but as we have seen with sanctions so far, and when
russia cut off gas supply to poland, we had that reverse supply going forward. that is something that will cause demand destruction here in the short-term. dani: i really love all the conviction behind your calls. that being said, i can't let you leave without putting some numbers to that conviction. you say you are super bullish, give us some levels were looking out for in terms of oil. nadia: hundred two 100 $35 a barrel for oil is a very comfortable trading range for oil. that is without these extreme scenarios, with everything coming back in china, easing continuing instead of this tightening cycle. that is where we see things looking quite comfortable. manus: nadia, welcome let's see where we get to over the summer. our guest on the oil markets,
the european union overcame hungarian objections to approve a sixth sanctions package against moscow, just as zelenskyy warns russia is now occupying 20% of ukrainian territory. let's get to our european correspondent, what are the details? maria: it's been approved finally, it has been a month since commissioners announced oil would be banned, now finally approved yesterday on the technical details. when it comes to oil, everything stays as it is, there will be seaborne oil and pipeline oil. seaborne oil will be banned from now until the end of the year, pipeline gets exceptions when it comes to countries like hungary. there was one issue that yesterday made this a problem, the hungarians also pushed for political concessions. one of them was about not sanctioning, the head of the
russian christian orthodox church. they said sanctioning a religious leader went against religious freedoms, so that was a stumbling block. overall when you look at this package, what is interesting is the european union choreographed the energy sanctions. first we do coal, then we do oil, and then we are going to move into energy. that opens the door potentially to gas talks. what another official told me is when you look at everything that has been happening in the european union over the past two months, it is clear that russia is saluting the -- losing the star status it had as an energy partners with the european union. manus: it is a progression from the unthinkable, to the thinkable, to the reality. we have just had a conversation with the energy analysts saying that is the real risk-free
europe, that they go to gas. maria, we are at this awful historical number, hundredth day of war. zelenskyy painting a grim picture of the bike in the east, what is the state of play in the east of the country? maria: it was very grim. yesterday president zelenskyy went through the latest data, 100 days now. they say russia now controls 20% of ukrainian territory. you heard it the nato secretary-general, saying ukrainian soldiers are paying a high price on the battlefield for defending their country. president zelenskyy said internally, there is about 12 million ukrainians that have been displaced, and about 5 million women and children that have left the country. for the ukrainians, there was that lead to get more weapons. they still believe that in when the war over the long-term if
they are able to repel this attack in the east. we are seeing the narrative has not changed in favor of the rain over the past week, and that russian troops are really exerting tangible pressure on the ukrainian army. manus: maria, thank you very much. great interview this week. our european correspondent with the very latest from brussels. 74%, that is the estimated annual inflation in turkey, with erdogan's approval ratings at historic lows, we bring the latest from this temple. -- istanbul.
we survived jobs day, but there is another story, inflation in turkey forecast to rise to 74%, leaving the lira vulnerable to say the least. this is said to be the highest reading since we saw triple digit gains in 1998. is that going to be enough to shift political leadership to increase rates? >> hi, manus. central bankers are staying on the sidelines despite global central banks raising rates to slow down inflation. maybe this is because the turkish president favors low rates. he wants to transform turkey's economy into an industrial powerhouse. he believes in an unorthodox view that high interest rates actually cause inflation, rather
than prevented. encouraged by erdogan, the turkish central bank has been cutting interest rates last year by a total of 500 basis points. and of course, the lira is under pressure as you said. year-to-date, it is down 20% against the dollar, the worst performer amongst emerging market currencies. investors are concerned with turkey's ultra loose monetary policy. and the war in russia also compounding the situation in turkey. dani: you are on the ground in istanbul, give us a sense of what it is like seeing these higher prices in daily life? >> we are seeing skyrocketing prices on the on almost weekly basis, everything from food, energy and housing. one example is, turks are
finding it difficult to find affordable housing for renting oor buying. house prices have surged by 100%. almost on a weekly basis, we are seeing across-the-board prices rise. this could prove to be a huge headache for president erdogan, especially a head an election next year. we're seeing his polling at historic lows, both himself and the ruling party, mainly due to these economic strains. manus: thanks so much. manus, there is a call out there from goldman sachs, we will have to put the lira aside because of its idiosyncratic issues, but goldman sachs saying it seems like we have reached a peak in the dollar, and if we have, we will have this catch up from em.
you and i were just talking about em has started that path of rate hikes much quicker than some of the g10 central banks. manus: if you look at wcrs, you have the lira which is the worst-performing currency this year. brazil have raised so aggressively, and this is the narrative. are some of the emerging hikes that you are seeing in the system way ahead of the fed, and we are going to see a shift in the regime, maybe emerging markets go into more of a pause mode relative to where we are on the hiking cycle across the g10. dani: of course, the other risk is sometimes on the dollar peaks, it also might be a recession which obviously would not be good for these nations. that's it for daybreak, markets