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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  June 10, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EDT

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i'm francine lacqua in london with tom mackenzie. tom: the hawks sees control. christine lagarde lays the groundwork for the ecb's first rate hike in over a decade. italian yields jumped but the euro tumbles. china inflation moderates as commodity prices and consumer prices weekend, leaving room for government stimulus. u.s. cpi's forecast to top 8% again. mohamed el-erian says there is still worse to come. francine: this is what we are looking up for the futures. pressure on the ftse 100, down .6%. the dax really doing the same. it's all about the china outlook, and a lot of questions on the u.s. cpi data what that means for fed tightening. traders not convinced by what the ecb said yesterday. tom: goldman sachs saying the ecb could be looking at 50 basis points in september.
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madame lagarde leaving the door open for 50 basis in september that was part of the hawkish tilt you are seeing from the governing members of that european central bank. the central -- spanish ibex is lower by .5%, the ftse 100 down 26 points. we have that cpi data later today and it will form a more concrete view on where the fomc goes in its rate path. there is real pain being felt at the petrol pump in the u.s., the cac 40 down by .7%. the german decks as well lower by 86 points. let's see how things are playing out across asset. francine mentioned china, the software inflation giving space for policymakers to step up easing but you have additional lockdowns in shanghai, a reminder of the constraints around covid zero.
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after a sell of on wall street, futures pointing to gains of around .3%. euro-dollar in focus given the volatility yesterday on the back of that statement, and the press conference from madame lagarde, 1.06 up a 10th of a percent. italian 10 year firmly in focus, a marked jump of around 20 basis points yesterday, a six basis point move today, building on that 3.66, and the spread between the btp's and bunds in focus amid concerns about deep fragmentation. brent currently down .4%, some demand expectation around china starting to ease. francine: ven ram is our bond expert and he alerted me to espressos, speaking up fragmentation, so we are getting him on the program later on. looking at the sectors, there is not one sector in the green. you see a little bit of green
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because you have some companies that are slightly higher, but out of the 19 groups that make up the stoxx 600 retail is losing less, but still down .2%. financial services, real estate and technology down between .8% and 1%, the biggest losers in today's trading session. tom: credit suisse we have had the stock on the board every single day it seems, all venues flow around this bank and the reports that state street came out yesterday at the goldman sachs conference and came out and said that is a ridiculous question. putting out a firm denial around reporting that they were looking at credit suisse, that stock is currently down 3.4%. and ferrari with news out yesterday that they are expanding in northern italy to build out their electric vehicle proposition.
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they have an expected meeting next week where they are expected to lay out their plans for ev's and the long-term strategy for harare over the next four years. -- rre over the next four years. the ecb bringing down the curtain on years of easy federal -- easy monetary policy. the forecast showed a faster pace ahead for prices than earlier thought. president lagarde defended policymakers who got it wrong on nation. -- inflation. >> all international institutions, all forecasters of repute, have actually made the same mistake of underestimating or not anticipating some of the developments such as the war, such as the energy crisis. tom: apart from larry summers, of course. for more we are joined by our reporter in frankfurt. we learned a lot more on the ecb's policy path, take us
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through what the governing council decided yesterday. >> yes, good morning. what we learned is that asset purchases will end as of july 1, which was not a surprise. the surprise was that the ecb committed to a 25 basis point rate increase in july, a 50 basis point increase in september and said interest rates would rise on a sustained path, so they would rise also in the fourth quarter and into next year. that is significant, the ecb hasn't raised rates for more than a decade, and committing that far into the future shows you how nervous they are about inflation. the updated projections show price pressures to percent above their target, also in 2024, that convinced even the most dovish
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policymaker yesterday that the time for action has come. francine: happy friday, so is this a win for the hawks? >> you could see it that way because the hawks have been talking about the need of a 50 basis point hike at some point early in cycle. but what it really is, is everybody giving in a little bit. the hawks agreed that a 50 basis point hike would only be in september, the doves would have wanted to see a more cautious stance after the third quarter, and they had to give in on that sustained increase in interest rates after that. so there is a compromise, everybody had to make some concessions. overall what it tells you is they are really concerned about asian taking off -- inflation taking off and second round effects materializing.
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tom: statements from the ecb and the press conference from madame lagarde amid that important pivot. china's inflation has moderated as commodity prices were called and consumer prices weakened, leaving room for the government to shore up on economy that remains under pressure francine: let's bring in our chief asia economics correspondent, what were the key takeaways from china's inflation numbers? >> it 's such a different story in china. there is an uptick in fresh fruit and vegetable prices. we know that consumers are under so much sure around china -- pressure around china because of covered restrictions. the inflation story of 2.1% is still a pretty subdued picture.
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china was said to be a source of global inflation last year, that is slowing down, 6.4% reflecting a cooling in commodity prices that will take pressure off factories, and some economists are saying china might become a source of distant asian -- disinflation. china is subdued and that has clear the way for authorities to put money into the economy to support demand. francine: thank you, are bloomberg chief asia economics correspondent in hong kong. tom: joining us now is kiran ganesh, global head of investment communications at ubs, what you make of this pivot from the ecb and the hawkish stance from bankers leaving the door open to 50 basis points in september? kiran: it was a hawker surprise from the ecb, expecting 25 basis points in july followed by september. we are thinking another 225
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basis point hikes later in the year. in terms of the read across to asset markets, it was interesting to see the euro depreciated yesterday despite that surprise. we think what it will take to get the euro going is to see inflation starting to come down. if the ecb was increasing interest rates, you would see the euro appreciating but that is not the case today. francine: espresso has gone up 40%. when does inflation start to go down? kiran: we think by the fourth quarter we should see it starting to fall in the euro zone. the big problem is energy prices which is the most unpredictable because of the situation in russia, we think it should come down in the third or fourth quarter, but for the moment we are expecting it to stay range bound against the dollar.
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i think the idea that it stays elevated and declines to levels which are still highish but manageable is what is getting price today. in an environment where energy prices keep rising, that headline number stays high, or an environment in which wage growth stimulates more inflation, that's not priced and is probably the downside scenario. our base case is it stays elevated over the next one to two years above target, but is moving in the right direction. francine: something that surprised us this morning, when you look at what boris johnson is saying, one way of dealing with inflation is to cut some tarriffs when we import goods. i don't know whether that will change, a lot of countries are becoming less global, could that change because of inflation? kiran: we've heard similar comments from the u.s. and discussions about whether cuts
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in china tarriffs might take hold, but that picture of countries looking more inward is the convenient excuse in a time of inflation, we are seeing export bands also put in place which makes supply chains more complicated. if we see the world going in a global direction that should help bring inflation down. tom: consumer prices out of the u.s. later today, is there a number you are looking for two big in 50 basis in september, what is the range of monetary policy reaction to that cpi print? kiran: we are looking forward to come in above eight again, i think september is likely again unless we see a real negative surprise. we are looking for a number above eight, but the key is going to be not so much the headline because of energy, the core number, what's happening
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when we exclude energy and food prices is what we are going to be focusing on. we expect that to continue to move in the right direction but a hawkish fed is still most likely. francine: can it be too aggressive, this is the question markets need to ask themselves, is there a danger they forget about her? -- growth? kiran: in the u.s. we have a strong labor market and we think that high interest rates can be withstood. it's interesting to see volatility in bond markets declined when the fed got more aggressive, so from a market perspective, central banks getting on top of inflation is probably the main concern. francine: kiran ganesh staying with us, we will get more of your calls after the break, as we look ahead to the cpi out of the u.s.. druckenmiller the famed
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investors saying recession is likely to strike next year, we get the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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was going to say angst and anxious at the same time. happy friday, everyone. markets looking out for u.s. cpi later on, it didn't seem that what the ecb was trying to say landed as well as they wanted to in terms of currency. stanley druckenmiller has a warning for wall street, the decline in the stock market is not over yet. he said his best guess is we are six months into a bear market. the nasdaq composite has dropped more than 20 percent from its previous peak. joining us now is kiran ganesh, global head of communications at ubs. if you look at the market strangeness, is that also a cfi level five work, where you find opportunities? kiran: we are focusing on value essentially. that's not done quite well, but we think the back trend is going to continue.
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when inflation is elevated value starts to outperform. tom: how does that trade -- kiran: we look at financials and things like energy which are sensitive to growth, energy is supported by oil prices. financials are going to do well out of this rising rate environment. tom: financials have not performed well year-to-date. kiran: when we look at the difference between financials performance and where rates are today, there is a historic gap starting to open up. when we look across the value sectors that is looking cheapest at the moment, maybe more confidence needed that we are going to avoid recession but we think that sector is looking relatively cheap today. francine: is there any commodities we should be buying right now, and is there a commodity where there is still room to gain? kiran: oil has done so well at the moment, but the longer end
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of the curve in oil is where we think the opportunity is. the short-term contracts are pricing in this tight supply environment, when we look at what markets are pricing for december, we think that is too low. we think oil is ending the year ending the year at $150 in a still tied environment. tom: there's been conversation about fragmentation in the euro zone. the two year vdp is up three basis points, our chart expert pointing out this is flattening across the yield curve in italy. what is the read across to the credit space, is there anything attractive in fixed income? kiran: the breakup risk in europe is very low. we have all these programs in place, during the euro zone crisis and the pandemic, so the risk of break is low.
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where we are seeing opportunities in fixed income is select names which are likely to be defensive in a slow growth environment. the bond space will be volatile around the rates picture, high yield is going to be sensitive around growth expectation, spreads are not that wide. in the investment grade space with the increase in yields we are seeing interesting opportunities emerging there. francine: currencies are so volatile, i don't know whether it is like trying to catch a falling knife. kiran: we had been positive on the dollar, but from a valuation perspective it probably can't go much further. the euro does not have a lot of positive drivers. the yen is looking a little cheap, but that is the falling knife today. unless we see a shift in stance from the bank of japan, more political pressure about rising prices for on improvement in growth as a result of more inbound tourism the yen is not
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likely to rebound either. we are looking more at the commodity currencies following that oil theme, things like the canadian dollar, norwegian krone and new zealand dollar. francine: tom: kiran ganesh thank you very much, the opportunities around investment grade credit and the value trade still has legs. francine: following the credits we story, state street said his is not pursuing a takeover -- credit suisse story, state street said it is not pursuing a takeover. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it started with a more hawkish outcome, the more i listen to president lagarde, the more i realized she was signaling a consequential change in policy regime. this is a big deal in europe, and i think the market reaction is indicative the market is starting to understand we have exited from one regime and entered another. francine: mohamed el-erian reacting to yesterday's press
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conference by the ecb president christine lagarde. tom: the latest when it comes to the banking sector. state street said it is not pursuing any acquisition with credit suisse. the denial comes after a report on a possible bid. state street says there is no basis for the rumors. the credit suisse ceo described a question about a takeover as quote stupid. joining us is a reporter who has been following this story, are you convinced by these denials? >> what a week for credit suisse. it's pretty absolute from state street, that was the statement we would have maybe expected yesterday, when they remained muted. they came out as strong as they can, and it will be interesting to see how credit suisse prices react. whether they have further to fall, and whether the saiga is going to be boxed off or do
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people realize credit suisse is a target and perhaps more serious bidders come out. francine: first of all, why did they wait 24 hours to come out with this? >> i suspect being cautious and prudent, and across a big bank, checking there is no one having those conversations. but it is interesting the lag, but it is not as easy as it should be for a bank to say something. it is worse to say something definitive and then have to retract. i'm sure they were looking at their share price which fell on the news and figuring we better. tom: six swissie currently down almost 3.74%. this whole saga around credit suisse and state street does it open up that interest for those looking at the asset management
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part of the business, are some who have suggested maybe that is the attractive component in this bank? >> that is the most likely thing. there are loads of attractive parts of the business. perhaps that is what people are considered. the messaging from credit suisse's we are not looking to do a deal, we are focused internally. any news like this, it sort of resides everything and who knows what will happen. francine: hedge funds and tiger cubs? >> the starts of the hedge fund world, all the tiger cubs are basically down. maverick capital and loan in both down 30% this year. add onto that chaise, and down more than 50%. they are largely tech focused, tracking nasdaq, but a fascinating around from the hottest hedge fund to get into
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to a downturn. tom: cathie wood suggesting inventor he is going to be short-lived, and you can imagine hedge funds will be betting on that as well. thank you for breaking down credit suisse. a redline from the boj, concerned about recent rapid yen decline. that is a redhead across the terminal, that rate differential pressure on the japanese currency, ridley trading at 133. we had jim o'neill suggesting if the yen gets to 150 it could spark another financial crisis in asia. plenty more coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone.
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30 minutes into the european trading day and here are your top stories. christine lagarde lays the groundwork for the ecb's first rate hike in a decade. italian yields jump but the euro topples. china inflation moderates as consumer demand weakens, leaving room for government stimulus. next up is u.s. cpi which is forecast to top 8% again. mohamed el-erian says there is still worse to come. inflation always dominating the narrative. tom: it is indeed. we are looking ahead to that cpi print out of the united states. and opening the door at the ecb to 50 basis points in september. it certainly seems like fragmentation and no new tools or structure was announced by the ecb to address the potential blowout in yields. we are seeing a tick up particularly in btp's at the front end building on the
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selloff yesterday of italian dent. the benchmark 600 down currently 1.3%. the news out of china mixed in terms of software inflation which allows policymakers to step up stimulus and support, but at the same time lockdowns for around 50 million people, in shanghai amid concerns, a reminder of the impacts on the demand picture. . iron ore softer. the ftse 100 in the u.k. lower by .9%. let's see how things are playing out across the sectors. every sector in the red this friday morning, 30 minutes into your trading day. top of the list is health care, .8% lower, something of a defensive play. bottom of the list, basic
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resources, iron ore is lower amid the demand picture out of china. real estate also off as his construction, every sector in the red. almost 2% down for the bottom sectors. >> u.s. lawmakers investigating last year's riot at the capital on january 6 have accused been president donald trump of inciting his supporters. the panel open public hearings with a primetime tv presentation. then attorney general william barr said some of the claims trump pursued were nonsense. >> trump claimed the election was stolen and he was the rightful president. he summoned the mob and let the flame of this attack. >> ukraine's economy shrank 15.1% from a year earlier in the
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first quarter of the year. moscow now occupies a fifth of ukrainian territory as severe battles continue in the eastern provinces. in an interview with bloomberg radio, ukraine's finance minister gave an estimate for the full year drop in gdp. >> i believe it will be around 30-35%. but again, the war is going on, there is no clarity when we will finish this war. this is why the estimate is preliminary and depends on how basin area of war and invasion by russia will devastate our economy. >> shanghai is to lock eight districts of the city this weekend to mass test as cases
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continue to emerge. the restrictions will affect some 15 million residents accounting for 16% of shanghai's population. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. francine: thank you so much, alice atkins with the first word news. global food imports are expected to total $1.8 trillion this year, surpassing last year's all-time. that's according to a report from the united nations food and agricultural organization, joining us now is boubaker ben-belhassen, director at bun food -- the u.n. food and after growth troll organization market entry division. how much worse can this get?
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[no audio] francine: we can't hear you. boubaker: thank you very much. thank you for the invitation and good morning. we predict that the food import bill, the cost for imports paid by countries will exceed 1.8 trillion u.s. dollars, and this is mostly due to prices. the increase compared to 2021 is $51 billion. prices have been increasing since the middle of 2021, actually 2020, since june 2020 we have been on an increasing path for food prices and commodities which is posing
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challenges especially for low income food importing countries and households who spend as much as 60-70% of their expenditures on food. tom: which factor is the most important, when it comes to price rises, is a transport, shipping, fertilizer costs, which is the factor that stands out or is it a mix of all of those things. boubaker: it's a mix as you said. when you look back to mid-2020, there was a number of weather events that affected production in a number of major exporting countries. then transportation costs with energy prices increasing, we have had those increasing, that means higher prices for fertilizer, for inputs. when you put everything
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together, and we don't forget, this has been replaced by a strong demand, so we continue to see strong demand from the import side. putting this together with constraints on the supply side, and demand, prices have been increasing. now that we have reached a high price level for our fao food price index, it has reached a high level in february 2022 prior to the war, after the war? these two countries are very important players in global markets, with the uncertainty that created and lack of availability with exports, prices have went up even further in march 2022. francine: but sir. we have been talking about that almost day in and day out because this could exhaust
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developing countries that have a large population. if you look at animal foods and cereals, is there an easy on certain parts of food that will get better before the others? boubaker: it will depend on a number of factors. as long as this is our -- as energy prices continue to increase, we are afraid prices will stay elevated, they may go up or down a little bit, they will stay elevated. in terms of the different commodities, cereals are going up. with what is happening in ukraine, these are major exporting countries for wheat, they account for 30% of global exports.
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for sunflower oil. there is a lot of pressure there. we are hoping with the new crops coming in, that prices might ease, but i am seeing a lot of factors from the energy markets with spillover effects on the agricultural markets through higher cost of production, higher wages for the labor, so there is a lot of pressure still on prices. tom: here on in the developed world, the problem is the cost at the supermarket on household budgets. in the less-developed part of the world, lives are arguably at risk. what is the appropriate policy response, how do governments need to react to ease prices and ensure they have the imports they need to address those concerns? boubaker: yes, as we said before, those that will be the
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most affected are the low income food importing countries. unfortunately, with the rising prices, the rising cost of imports, that's what we are seeing, the bulk of the majority of the increase is due to higher cost. we need a lot of support and that is why in fao we have the food importing financing facility, we need to support the balance of payment of these countries for them to finance their imports because otherwise we may see social unrest or political instability, and consequences that can have even more severe impacts on food security. we need really to assist these countries in securing their imports through this financing facility. francine: is it through money, or planting crops, is there
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something else apart from giving money that we could do? boubaker: what we can do, of course. we are hoping the market signals, there are a number of countries, the problem is a problem of access to food. it's not a problem of availability at the global level, but distribution is the issue. we hope that there will be relief, some countries may have stock, that they may release to move that food where it is most needed. in the short run that is what we need to do. next year that is our concern with the increasing food prices, we can move from an access crisis this year, to probably unavailability prices next year. with the increasing production costs and lack of availability of fertilizer, higher prices of fertilizer, there will be less
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application of fertilizer, yields might drop and we can actually face a problem of availability rather than access. so we really -- francine: sir. boubaker: there is the issue of -- francine: thank you so much for joining us, boubaker ben-belhassen, director of bun food and agricultural organization markets and trade division with a really important conversation. we will dive deeper into the world of cybercrime. that's coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: locum back to the open, everyone. 45 minutes into the european trading day. european stocks extending losses that we saw out there. bracing for inflation data from the fed to help them decide what to do next. tom: consumer price index print above 8% is the expectation. from inflation switching focus to cybersecurity, it has become an increasingly important priority for governments and businesses. covid lockdowns helped propel digitization, and with it came an increase in high-profile
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cybercrimes from pegasus spyware, and now researchers have uncovered the lazarus group, a shadowy cabal of hackers thought to be working on behalf of the north korean state. joining us now is author and investigative journalist geoff white who digs deep into this with his new book, "the lazarus heist." thank you very much for joining us. there is a number of amazing anecdotes throughout this book when you follow the travails of the lazarus group as they go from heist to heist across the world, this is a global enterprise allegedly coordinated out of north korea. something that struck me was the coordination in india of a number of men and women who, and
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pull money out of atm's -- come and pull money out of atm's, the sophistication of this approach, talk to us about how we got to that point. geoff: a bank was hacked in 2018. and the coordination of that campaign was astonishing. not only did hackers managed to navigate their way to the atm approval system, but they managed to coordinate money mules in 29 countries around the world to withdraw money from cash points. the hackers are controlling the cash point software, and they can make the cash point spew out money. what's next on a shing about that is you have -- astonishing about that is you have 29 countries where this is taking place. in two hours they managed to clean out $11 million.
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the hackers who broke into the bank are in touch with people in 29 countries who have people on the street ready to go at a moments notice, absolutely astonishing. tom: this was coordinated out of the off grid hermit kingdom. i got there and they took us to a makeshift phonebook but they had internet. all of this, how is this chlorinated out of the country like north korea? geoff: the vast majority of citizens do not have any access to the internet. there is an intranet in north korea. you can find kim jong-il speeches and so on. a very small minority of north korean elite have access to the internet. the accusation is the government has used government hackers, most countries have them, the accusation is they have been getting cash in for the regime.
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north korea is subject to sanctions, the country is start for money, but government hackers are accused of topping up the government coffers using cyberattacks. francine: there are a number of operatives that are not west friendly trying to hackers every day. geoff: we have covered cyberattacks from other countries, notably russia. what's interesting about north korea is they are cash motivated, that has led to their hackers getting into bad with not just organized cybercrime, but street-level crime. you have a confluence between nationstate hackers and organized crime, that is a follow but i think other nation's hackers will start planning. tom: what's fascinating is they go from a relatively small bank in india, to taking on so many --over the release of that
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controversial film. this was a grudge match between north korea and sony pictures, that is remarkable. geoff: the interview some of you may have seen. the bumbling plot is about assassinating kim jong-un, it is impossible to overstate how offensive north korea would have found that. the kim family is treated like gold in that country. and they annihilated that company from within. so these employees were using paper and pen for a period of time. just to complete this, they then leapt thousands of deeply embarrassing emails, eventually leading to the resignation of amy pascal. francine: so, are we getting smarter at stopping these attacks? geoff: generally yes. there is more international collaboration. the problem with cybercrime is
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it runs across borders. going back to the cosmos bank example, india's police had to get assistance from 29 different countries, so whilst collaboration is getting better, the challenge for one country is still considerable. tom: this is absolutely fascinating, we could ask a million more questions, geoff white, the author of "the laz arus heist" on the exploits of this alleged group of hackers out of north korea. thank you very much indeed. francine: from one investigation to another. today big take under c -- uncovers a story of the massive soil contamination in belgium. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. we are 54 minutes into the european trading day. for the moment at the downside, looking at bonds, italian bond yields searching further. the big one today is u.s. cpi. an investigation in antwerp has revealed extraordinary levels of toxins in the water and soil and people near the company's factory. we look into the forever
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chemical crisis in europe, for more is stephanie baker. what exact we did you uncover? >> 3m has a plant in antwerp, one of its largest production sites, in europe's biggest chemical industry cluster. they have produced pfals, so-called forever chemicals, since the 70's. there was a plan to build a tunnel highway project, and it was supposed to pop up right next to 3m's plant. environmentalists worried about soil being displaced and uncovered last year the extent of the contamination which had really gone unnoticed and had been hidden in fact by the government doing a secret deal with 3m to dump the most toxic of the polluted soil on 3m's site.
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in the meantime they did testing on local residents and discovered the vast majority of them had above stated limits of one particular type of forever chemical in their bloodstream. and it has turned into a real political scandal in belgium with a parliamentary commission and various civil complaint against the company. francine: a great read, thanks so much, it is on our bloomberg terminal. just type ni bigtake on the terminal. tom: surveillance is up next. the markets in europe currently lower by 1.2%, italian yields blowing out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we expect to raise the key ecb interest rates again in se


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