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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  June 13, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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>> this is "bloomberg daybreak europe. >> global stocks plunge. pressure on the fed to step up rate hikes. the yen syncs sinks to a 24 year low. covid contributes to marketing side after china begins re-imposing curbs after loosening restrictions in major cities. less brexit bruising. boris johnson prepares to reopen a fight with the eu. friday was a rude wake-up when it comes to inflation but it is continuing today. tom: 8.6 is the data we got on friday out of the u.s..
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the repricing across the bond market was more pronounced friday. it continues on monday. you have volatility across fx. let's check in cross assets. the yen in focus. we have a 24 year low. speculation the boj is going to be forced to act. the bond market is almost daring them to do that. japanese 10 year challenging the boj, the rate differential the federal reserve becomes ever more pronounced some market participants starting to anticipate the possibility of 75 basis points in june. when it comes to assets we are looking at, volatility across the fx space, when it comes to brent crude, it is off by 1.6%. you have additional restrictions put in place. china's covid zero policy.
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questioning whether that's going to hold up. there is a great piece on the bloomberg. there is an expectation of rising in the oil -- pricing in the oil market to continue. bitcoin at $25,000, part of the move we are seeing down almost 7%. we are looking and iron ore is well down almost 5%, also linked to additional restrictions put in place this monday in china. dani: taking the fed stuff for me, that is kind of view. nerdy feds speak is my love language. 21 basis points in two sessions after that red hot inflation. that is the biggest decline, the biggest tightening of this spread since march 2020. we are now at 1.3. that went ahead and inverted on friday. the 75 basis points, now 50-50
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odds. pricing in this market when it comes to july, the story of yields up, price down, that is having its impact on equity markets. let me just show you what the msci asia pacific indexes doing because that is following on some ugliness that was friday's session in the u.s., down 2.5%. euro stoxx picking up the mantle of the selloff down 1.5%. the s&p 500 on friday got remarkably close to a bear market, down about 19% from its peak. now futures are trading at their lowest since march 2021. nasdaq futures already hit a bear market but still continue down 2%. let's get our other top stories with our reporters from around the world. michelle is standing by in singapore. looking at the yield surgeon fed hike expectations, covering the covid situation in china. tom: covering the market
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situation in asia, and then lizzie burden joins us with the latest on the northern ireland protocol. the two-year rising to its highest level since 2007. that is as the u.s. inflation shock continues to rumble through the market. investors are rushing to price in more fed hikes to counter the hottest consumer prices in four decades. for more we are joined by our senior asia economy reporter. ken jerome powell and the fed afford to slow hawk this interest-rate process? how likely is 75 basis points now? >> it is getting harder by the day. it is significantly harder than it was before 8:30 a.m. friday with this report they got. we have the raging debate over whether it is peak inflation, plateau inflation, or perhaps something worse. it could go up to 9% as mohamed
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el-erian said. jerome powell has to face this head on. perhaps he has to lay out the case for how he's going to get a grip on price growth has gone out of control. he has to reassure consumers and businesses. he is not going to be strong around the r word but he will be addressing what their strategy is to not fall further behind. 75 basis points is on the table. i checked the bloomberg survey. only four of 99 analysts are looking at 75. but i think you are going to see that number fly higher in the coming days. dani: this is the global market and we have other central bank decisions, the bank of japan being one. 10 year yields above 25 basis points. the upper policy bound, the boj
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saying they're going to do an additional purchase of ¥500 billion on tuesday. what are we expecting this week with both the bank of england and japan of course alongside the fed? >> what i wild weekend what a dichotomy when you are facing the bank of japan's conundrum. if we take a look at the bank of england first, we heard this week they are in recession in all but name in the u.k.. pledging sentiment like the u.s. , high-end unsustainable inflation, and a housing market that is just flailing. the bank of england is looking to raise rates this week. it could be 25 basis point on the survey. but a small minority looking higher than that. that could rise based on the mood of the week. in japan we are going to get more news later today. kuroda addressing parliament
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after the yen hit that level this morning. there is sensitivity around the long-term deflationary atmosphere, but they do not like the inflation they are seeing right now and it is a sensitive time to be asking consumers and businesses to understand having to pay higher costs. very tricky conundrum the bank of japan is facing. dani: thank you so much, gearing us up for the fireworks that will be this week. michelle jamrisko. china is starting to reimpose curbs with concerns the country may employ strict lockdowns to control its covid outbreak. for more we are joined by michelle cortez. is that a fair way to view this, that this is a back step for china? >> it is absolutely a back step of what we are looking at right now. but it is not really a step into significantly higher curbs on covid.
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it is really sort of awaiting stage. we are in a plateau trying to figure out how hard china is going to go to get back down to zero cases. what we have seen at this point is once you get anyone out in the community that had an active infection, especially with one of these nor variant -- newer variants, you are going to spark additional infections and that is what china is trying to get around. they are still a zero tolerance and they do not want to be having to deal with it at all. the problem is it takes relator cohen and measures to eliminate it entirely. china has not been able to do that since october. the question is how hard are they willing to go in a place like beijing which has managed to avoid the lockdowns we saw in shanghai where everyone was locked inside their homes for two months. that is the question. we are seeing in the area of beijing where they are having this outbreak, 63 cases on saturday all tied to a bar.
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everyone who has been at that bar is in quarantine. everyone who has been a close contact who lives in the same kind of housing complex with anyone who was infected at that bar, everyone is in lockdown, in quarantine. the question is how much further is china willing to go to get back to zero? >> now china's covid curbs and inflation are contribute into the worst day for asian stocks in three months. let's get to juliette saly in singapore. i want to put a laser eye on the end -- on the yen. >> fast-moving markets and let's bring up the jgb 10 years. we are seeing more intervention to try to defend that 0.25% level. the bank of japan announcing they will be buying an additional $500 billion into the market tomorrow. we are awaiting those comments from governor kuroda as well as
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we continue to see this divergence way into japanese equities. at one point we have seen the nikkei drop around 3%. ugly monday, unlucky monday 13th for asian equities. we are seeing growth stocks hit hard. china's market is actually faring a lot better than others in the region. that is also on its policy diversions and what we see as more easing coming through from the pboc later this week. it is about a bond yields bike, i mentioned the japanese bond market, also new zealand with the 10 year yield at a 2014 high. let's have a look at what we are seeing in the end. about an hour ago it hit the 1998 low. it is down 15% against the greenback so far this year, the worst-performing major currency which had these reiterations from top government officials about the concern. a 24 year low against the yen. bloomberg economic saying this is an overshoot, the yen at 130, a more reasonable level.
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it will be interesting to see where to pair trades. as we see governor kuroda speaking in parliament. dani: now from asia to the u.k. were the government is expected to move ahead with legislation that could allow it to override parts of the brexit deal relating to the northern ireland protocol it reached with the eu. for more we are joined by bloomberg's lizzie burden. >> the idea is this will fast-track goods from britain to northern ireland and into the eu. that raises questions in brussels about the integrity of the eu single market. today you can expect more focus on why rather than the how. it was meant to be presented last week but there was concern about reaching -- breaching international law. yesterday, the u.k. secretary of state for another nylund -- for northern ireland said it does
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not breach international law and the public needs to understand why it is necessary given the northern ireland protocol. bear in mind boris johnson signed that protocol and the goal is to get it through the house of commons for the end of july. they are likely to face opposition from boris johnson's mp's from brussels, and from the u.s.. but it shows how much pro brexit mp's influence boris johnson after the no-confidence vote last week. tom: thank you for getting us up to speed on the process around the northern ireland protocol. let's take a look at the other key things we are watching on this monday morning. today the ecb participates in a meeting organized by the arab monetary fund. tomorrow we are due to get german cpi along with the ze
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governance survey. a test of sentiment around the german economy. dani: the fomc is due to release its latest rate decision. if that is not enough for you, thursday it is the bank of england's turn to give its decision on rates and then friday it is the bank of japan revealing its policy moves. the latest out of them claiming to have purchased an additional ¥500 billion in jgb's tuesday. tom: coming up, markets are repricing the fed tightening. after that cpi printout of the u.s.. more pressure on jerome powell. market insight next. dani: plus, the official chinese summoning the biggest names in wall street pay for a dressing down when it comes to bankers renumeration, and raising further concerns on the future of the global finance industry
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in the country. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> unfortunately, the balance of risk is tilted in a negative way right now. we have a strong labor market and that is what is keeping us from a recession right now. that is why recession is a risk scenario, not a baseline. >> forecasts have tended to be too optimistic. i hope they will recognize the gravity of the problem. when inflation is as high as it is right now and unemployment is as low as it is right now, it is almost always followed within two years by inflation. by recession. dani: bloomberg columnist
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mohamed el-erian and former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers speaking. we should check these lines coming from kuroda speaking to parliament in japan. of course talking about the yen which is that a 24 year low saying it is important for fx to effect economic fundamentals -- reflect economic fundamentals. recent rapid weakening of the yen is negative for the economy. tom: there is tension. the boj governor saying the need is there to continue with easing persistently so it is not a change in language. he will continue to push that line that easing is necessary. they try to buy out more jgb's. the boj balance sheet continuing to expand. the market is challenging them on this, hitting 25 basis points today. so that throwdown, they do not want to see a weaker yen.
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the chairman saying if they get to 150, we are looking at a major financial crisis. at the same time they are trying to keep yield curve control than place. dani: it is so fascinating because you get kuroda talking about the weekend -- you have the boj saying we are going to buy more jgb's to support it. but the yen has barely moved. it is down 0.3% versus the dollar, that is not too much of a difference from before he started speaking, so does the market trust they can do this? joining us now is david savon, ceo at socgen private wealth management. it is a very volatile day. you have the yen at a 24 year low. bonds continued there were selloff on record. -- bonds continued their worst selloff on record.
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how much reallocation are we undergoing? >> we need to keep a significant margin of safety in the system. we need to look to safe havens. gold is something we like, but other things as well make sense in this environment. tom: we definitely want to get your thoughts on the yen but where are we in pricing in disinflation shock we are seeing in the u.s. now? 75 basis points according to barclays and jeffries june. what is the impact if you get that level of hike? 50 basis points used to be the new 25. now 75 is the new 50. >> it is an ongoing process. my view is that probably yield
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setting is not enough. the fed should probably also rethink the rate at which it reduces its balance sheet to sort of reduce excess liquidity in the market. for 75 basis points, that seems to be the new 50 basis for now. dani: to this point, i want to get to what tom mentioned on barclays and jeffries. barclays saying the fed needs to shock markets, therefore they are raising their expectation for a hike for this coming meeting on wednesday, to 75 basis points. david, what will happen to markets if this is what happens? if the fed does hike 75 basis points with the shock and awe approach?
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>> it is most likely the fed will open the door for this hike. when you look at the futures, the market is already expecting for the next three months -- sorry. something above 50 basis points. the pressure will continue mounting. tom: where do you find shelter in this environment? >> where do we find what? tom: where do you find shelter? where are the safe havens? >> obviously the yen has been safe, the yuan. for some of the reasons you highlighted. gold make sense. it has not been performing but -- the export quotient with a
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little more cash than usual. also there is quite a lot of volatility in the fixed income market. as investors, that is when you look to the shorter maturity. you get an abatement of the yield spikes meaning after three years you already have a decent yield to be offered and a significant buffer. some strategies on shortened maturities are starting to make sense. dani: so the yields are attractive enough? there have been plenty of people who have come on the show and said yes, it is time to jump back into the bond market, yields look good. but that call has done very poorly this year. are you not afraid you are just catching a falling knife? >> don't you mean the short end of the curve? that is where you get volatility
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. the yield curve is flat between two and 10 years. you get all the benefits of being short duration but you don't get the volatility. it is a bit worsened, but on recommended allocation, we are still significantly underweight fixed income and we prefer cash and inflation hedges in the form of as we said gold, but also metals we think are attractive. tom: those industrial metals, possibly gold. maybe some opportunities at the front end of the yield curve. david seban-jeantet of socgen private wealth management, thank you for joining us this monday.
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a very volatile day. coming up, it is a gloomy start to the week. investor sentiment dampened. we take a deeper dive into the markets next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we were trying to come to grips with this very ugly day in markets. stocks are selling off, bonds are selling off, currencies are going haywire. one thing we are looking at is japan, the 10 year yield hitting above the upper bound of 25 basis points. the boj says they are going to step in, by more jgb's. this is the end of the day -- at the end of the day is a rate differential story. u.s. dollar japanese yen at a 24
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year high. the yen trading at a 24 year low. two year yields up as well, higher by eight basis points this morning. it feels like this existential angst over inflation that seems to not be able to draw one line under it. tom: in the u.s. we are seeing, in europe as well, we saw that blowout on friday. we will continue to watch btp's when they start trading. whether or not the ecb will be forced to step up with more concrete measures around that sovereign debt -- when it comes to europe, losses at 1.4 percent. bitcoin down to $25,600. iron ore suppressed. the s&p futures leading on -- building on losses we saw friday, down 1.42%. dani: we are going to get more next. this is bloomberg. ♪ psst. girl. you can do better. ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too.
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dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger alongside tom mackenzie in london. tom: global stocks plunge, and unrelenting inflation keeping pressure on the fed to step up rate hikes. the yen sings to a 24 year low. covid contributes to market anxiety after china begins the imposing curbs weeks after loosening restrictions in major cities. plus, brexit bruising. boris johnson prepares to present a bill that would reopen a fight with the eu. dani: the day continues to get uglier. on friday, a 40 year high on the inflationary print.
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it seems the market is trying to figure out how to absorb it. tom: 75 basis points arguably the new 50 basis points. we spoke to a business leader on friday afternoon who said need to see a recession. remarkable from a business leader, calling for recession. the unemployment rate up curtail inflation. dani: a scary prospect when you also have consumer sentiment hitting a record low on friday. that is feeding into the market action as well. we were saying the five 30's, that has inverted, the twos and tens, this is the biggest flattening march 2020. angst also showing an equity markets as well. msci asia, across the board in asia, drops of more than 2%. s&p down nearly 1.5%.
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the s&p 500 futures index is at a low. nasdaq futures taking a hit. it is all of this debate, is the fed going to have to shock the market in a way that something breaks? the markets are trading like something is going to break. tom: the boj saying they will continue with their easing policy. buying up further jgb. the market is really challenging their position. there are implications for the yen, 13481 now, still lower by 3/10 of a percent. we look at inflationary factors and within that, the centrality of oil. down 1.4%. bitcoin in the shakeup in the cryptocurrency markets continue, 25,500. part of this is golf mood.
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you have tightening liquidity, tending economic conditions. iron ore plunging 4.4% on the back of the news out of china around additional restrictions. a reminder that it will be choppy in china as it tries to wrestle with covid zero. dani: let's catch our breath from the red on the screen. take a break with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: china has issued one of his strongest warnings yet about the risk of war over taiwan. the defense minister repeatedly expressed nations will -- beijing's will. we've also learned chinese military officials are disputing washington's stance on the taiwan strait, telling counterparts in meetings it is not international waters. >> to us, the strategy is an attempt to build an exclusive
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small group in the name of an indo pacific to hijack countries in our region and target one specific country. it is a strategy to create conflict and confrontation, to contain and encircle others. juliette: the european commission president says the body's upcoming opinion on ukraine's push to join the eu will consider their strides. >> we have been working day and night on this assessment. the discussions today will help finalize our assessment next week. i just want to say we stand by
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your side. juliette: u.s. senators have reached a tentative deal on a new gun safety legislation package, including states the ability to have red flag laws, allowing courts to remove things from potentially dangerous owners, and more funding for school safety. the agreement is a significant breakthrough after years of little progress. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much, juliette saly. the pandemic fueled shortage of raw materials is poised to drive the largest surge and commodity prices in a decade, according to the latest in live -- mliv survey. >> demand is so strong. combined exports of crude oil
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and petroleum products in recent weeks have been a tenant a half million barrel range. that would make the u.s. the largest look provider in the world. bigger than saudi arabia. >> we think the longer end of the curve in oil is where it is. >> you look at 120, it doesn't seem that expensive. >> wheat is in short supply. >> also the geopolitical tensions with respect to ukraine. >> we are planning for inflation for the foreseeable future. >> the war and the supply and demand imbalances already in place before the war began, especially in energy, will really push up base metals, precious metals, and energy together. >> we are looking at nickel especially. these are commodities we think will do well this year. >> we expect industrial metals
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to eventually have a bounceback toward the later half of 2022 as well, given we've seen the rebound in china. >> [indiscernible] >> the pressure will continue. we are not at the peak yet. dani: all of that jives with the responses on the survey. has the world reached peak oil demand? 75% saying no. is there peak inflation? that seems one-sided after friday's numbers, but the idea of oil demand is not just the survey, the markets also seeing high prices to come. tom: if you look at that the super contract for 2023, pointing to contracts pricing at about $100 a barrel. we are reminded that the tightness in the or market is
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likely to continue. you are looking at some metrics, an additional one million barrels on a daily basis. officials around the world are starting to factor in $150 a barrel and what that would mean for inflation. dani: i have bad news, it's not just oil that the markets and our survey is worried about. when we ask people what commodity has further to run, this pink stock -- chunk is wheat. it's not just oil and reopening, the war in ukraine is also exacerbating the food story. oil is over here, copper moving higher on demand, you have supply issues moving wheat viewed that -- wheat. the inflationary pressures and the weight on the economy continues to intensify. tom: thank you. let's return to our markets conversation. let's turn to mark cranfield.
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what is the main driver of the market angst today? was it just friday? mark: the yields, people are trying to get their head around the fact that we are above 3% and still rising in two-year treasuries and that is a major input in so many decisions that risk managers have to make. if you look at the msci asia pacific index, the yield expected this year is only 2.9%. you've already got treasury yields higher and -- higher than dividend yields and asia. that makes it tough for a fund manager to allocate too much to equities when you could just buy a two year treasury yields. dani: mark -- i just want to jump in, the fed being under pressure, picking up on that
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point. we are getting more calls of a 75 basis point hikes on wednesday, barclays and jeffries both saying that. is this a market gearing up for 75 basis points or what would the fallout to be should we get that shock and awe? mark: if you look at the derivatives market that has been trading since that data, it is positioning for a much more rest of stance. probably the best thing they can do even if they don't move by 75 it is to at least say it is on the table. they are considering it at a future meeting. if they dismiss it completely that would probably backfire. traders tend to be convinced the fed is behind and need to get more aggressive. they need to recognize 50 basis points might not be enough. dani: just teeing us up for more
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moves ahead. tom: coming up, chinese officials have summoned some of the biggest names in wall street for a dressing down on anchors pay, raising further concerns about the future of global finance in the country. more on that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." some of the biggest names in wall street were recently summoned one by one by banking regulators in shanghai and beijing. on the agenda, anchors pay. each was warned not to reward top people to lavishly. this is the latest of many potholes global banks have hit whitley on their long and -- have hit lately on their long
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and rocky road into china. we have our analyst. kathy, is it unusual to see foreign executives summoned in china and dressed down around anger pay? -- bankers pay? >> they are basically saying -- it is unprecedented. it is highly unusual. it is a regulatory intrusion into the banks's personnel pay. the level of scrutiny is expected to be higher. in february, we saw publicly criticized for their business model. [indiscernible] in the past these were made in
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private circumstances. dani: how worried are the global banks about this? cathy: they are definitely worried but not taking immediate action because it hasn't turned to official routes yet. they are trying to figure out how the global pay system works. they can't pay their bankers lower when others are getting more pay. there is a lot of dialogue right now. people are trying to lobby for more understanding about the situation. [indiscernible] it is hard to gauge -- dani: ok, thank you very much. let's get more on the story. joining us is our guest.
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a crazy day for markets. thanks of course from the fed. i want to pick up about where kathy left off. how much is a problem is the asia story for wall street and european banks? >> i think the major story is they are afraid of rising interest rates in the u.s. and europe and obviously there are concerns about china and the slow down. the markets have slowed down rapidly. the chinese central bank is lowering interest rates and trying to boost markets that way. in the west, we are looking at increasing interest rates. we are at different ends of the cycle. but it is not encouraging in either of those markets. tom: you advise banks on the
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regulatory front. what would your advice be to a banker or financial institution looking either to expand or build out their presence in the china market given the pressures they are under? octavio: i think what the chinese regulators have said is they are having a close look at banker pay. we've seen this in europe and the u.s. as well. regulators and politicians have come out, they are outrageous bonuses. usually they don't do anything about it, the u.k. regulators a few years ago were looking at banker pay quite closely. some thought they would move to geneva but very few did. the question is do they really implement pay freezes and cuts? i think they realize that those people just go offshore and disappear.
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you cannot regulate them that way. i think the chinese regulators will come to their senses on that front. it is beyond their reach and i think that is frustrating for the chinese regulators who used to be able to control things. this is something you cannot do. dani: you mentioned the rate story being a big driver at this moment. in some ways, it feels like bizarre world, because things that normally help banks, banks in the u.s. have lost a fifth of their value to start this year. what can save the sector? octavio: i don't think much can right now. i think what we see is the fed and ecb have their banks against the wall in terms of trying to fight inflation. the fed has been very tepid about doing anything of any size on this front. you were talking about 50 or 75
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basis point increases. the last time we saw this level of inflation, the fed had to jack up the fed fund rates to 15% and we are at .88% right now. we are very early in the cycle. you would have to keep it at over 10% for three years to get inflation under control. i think they will have to increase interest rates at 100 basis points or more for several months to get it under control. they will have no choice in the coming months to do something like that. tom: that would be remarkable. it also would possibly guarantee the prospects of a recession. where is the resilience and banking sector to -- what is the resilience and the banking sector to a recession? octavio: i think it is limited. i think it european and u.s. banks have pretty good capital
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reserves and they have scrolled enough money away to have a good -- squirrelled enough money away to have a good cushion. i don't see a scenario where tanks start to collapse. -- banks start to collapse. regulators have built up capital reserves substantially. i don't think we need to lose sleep over that. on the training and investment banking side, things look grim indeed. as interest rates keep going up just as market volatility and a certain institutions are skilled at navigating that, but it is like calling -- catching a falling knife, not easy to do. dani: i'm still trying to wrap my head around the idea of a 100 basis point hike. i had only wrapped my head around the 75 basis points this morning.
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what should we be bracing for if we get a 100 basis point fed one meeting? octavio: it will set off a bonds declining substantially, markets will go down more than they have so far. but the fed has gotten it wrong at every turn in terms of inflation. first they said it doesn't exist, then they said it was transitory, and now it is the war in ukraine. i have difficulty banning -- blaming the war in ukraine for all of this be a -- all of this. we are seeing this on commodities that ukraine has nothing to do with. the inflation is systemic, not based on a single event or the war in ukraine. we need to get our heads around that. it is a reflection of the lack of liquidity.
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-- of the liquidity in the market. they have to do something dramatic. it looks like inflation is spinning out of control. despite the tepid increases from the fed. the idea that you raise 50 or 75 basis points and inflation goes away, i think the fed has proven that does not work. tom: ok, always excellent. the challenges facing the banking sector. coming up, crypto takes a beating as the latest data is out. we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." bitcoin has plunged to an 18 month low amid a broad selloff
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hitting the cryptocurrency. this may signal an ugly start to the week for all risk assets. the ultimate ramen are -- barometer. joanna, why is it so clear right now? joanna: the mood already was not great over the past week or so, we are in the seventh day of declines, but that hot inflation print on friday just did in the crypto compex overall. bitcoin struggled over the weekend and has accelerated its losses, below $25,000. a lot of people had warned if we got below about 28,000, we could see a quick drop and we are starting to see that. people are talking about 22,000. even down to 19,500 around the 2017-not looking good.
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tom: is there differentiating in the crypto space? is anything performing better? joanna: not much is performing better, it's more about what is performing worse if you are looking at ether, which is underperforming bitcoin. you have avalanche and some others, a lot are down sometimes 20% or 30% in the last seven days. you have a slightly riskier token, it is not looking good overall. tom: joanna also jerk, thank you for the breakdown. dani: we are looking at markets at the top of the hour. south korea saying it will take market stabilization steps if needed. the market drama continues. tom: we are watching french politics as well. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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