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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  June 16, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> a big change from the fed. >> i think the fed's forecasts are optimistic. >> fed rate hikes take a long time to impact the economy. >> the unemployment rate fantasy plan -- fantasyland. tom: good morning. a moment in history for economics, finance and investment. we see it on the bloomberg screen. so many central banks acting in what i see massively on this screen as certainty -- uncertainty. jonathan: yields are heading up. bond yields higher, 10 year
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treasury pushing a350. the hike at 75 basis points, 25 and the bank of england. more to come. tom: we are not discussing stories of import that are pushed off the radar by the central bank derby. that ecb story from jenna rando out an hour ago from the single, oddest, desperate bond story i have ever seen. ecb, lagarde in search of an anti-crisis tool. jonathan: they want to somehow contain italian bond yields and increase interest rates, tightening financial conditions. it is going to be really tough. tom: you mentioned the shocks, the gas, the food, tanisha with elements of a revolution. tunisia shut down this morning. lisa: you had that fire at the export facility from the united
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states, the exported gas to europe which caused a spike in natural gas. all of these highlighting the real worry in yesterday's meeting with jay powell, where he was talking about chasing gas prices, chasing oil prices. even though this is not within their control, it is in the headline number. headline number creates expectations, they have to fight that. tom: even in boone england, i mean this with huge wage growth, corporations are adjusting. out moments ago, kroger, the u.s. grocery store chain, raises their view from a 375 up to 385. the oddity here of measuring our gloom against what is coming out of corporations mounts is hassan aiding. jonathan: compared to how consumers feel, consumer sentiment is deeply negative. that's prices are very high. he price of everything in the last 12 months has gone up.
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central bankers right now, they are looking at the labor market. they see strong labor markets. how high do rates need to go to contain inflation? the element of inflation they can control. that debate is wide open. others think we may already be there. tom: go batch and watch the bill dudley interview, john, our data check. euro, 103.94. jonathan: equities, down 2% on the s&p. yields higher by 16 basis points. recent hi, close to 350. up 16 basis points, 344.85. euro-dollar, 103.
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negative .5%. tom: sterling off bank of england, 121,36, andrew sheetz, analyst at morgan stanley. we asked of what the whole view is. the summary is simple. morgan stanley, growth matters. tell me why growth matters. andrew: thanks. it is great to be here. i think this is a backdrop where the fed has shown it is going to be -- have to be data-dependent over data that doesn't have control over. the actions it is taking now are not necessarily going to do anything about gasoline prices, airfares over the next three months that are driving these inflation surprises that chair
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powell mentioned. you have a situation where the fed is captive to the incoming inflation data, the growth outlook is very uncertain. i think the fed acknowledged that uncertainty. i think we see it in our own forecast, where there is a lot of different data points, different trajectories to the economy where we come out of all of that to be relatively defensive, to try and keep positioning right as we have a number of crosscurrents going on. jonathan: we talk about the prospect of a recession, and we have hardly talked about downgrading earnings. deutsche bank, equity -- and equity strategist who was cutting expectations. what do you make of that, we haven't had the warnings from corporations? andrew: i think that is right in
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terms of the next thing to focus on. when we think of the u.s. equity market, my colleague, mike wilson thinks -- has generally adjusted to the rate rise we have seen. what it has not adjusted to is earnings downgrades, which you usually get when you have this reduction of natural conditions, which we have had those risks of growth, declines in pmi's that we think are likely. that is where the rubber meets the road, there is a scenario more positive than ours where the companies are able to continue their earned profits and hit those consensus numbers. in that case, the market could stabilize around current levels. if they cut earnings as we expect, we think there is downside risk. it is too early to try and enter the market. lisa: which is the reason you are looking elsewhere. i was surprised to see where
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else you are looking. japan, why? based on the fact you have seen the yen depreciate, a lot of people expect the bank of japan will have to follow. andrew: that is a fair question. it is apparent that every major global equity market in the world had -- has its own challenges. europe has active ecb hiking, it has the war in ukraine. china has the challenge of 80 covid policy. -- zero covid policy. japan has a banking policy that is disconnected from the hawkish policy elsewhere. that is one of the better challenges to have. we think the japanese market is not priced for the yen depreciation we have seen. if the yen were to stay around 135 or move higher or weaker, that would result in earnings upgrades at a time where other regions would continue to see
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earnings downgrades. japan is the greatest, it is not the most expensive, versus some of the other markets. we think the bank of japan will stay patient a while longer, the inflationary pressures in japan not only are not as severe right now, they have been so much lower for so much longer than the u.s. lisa: when you talk about creating a balance to the portfolio, i understand the fed on japan to some degree. there has got to be some bigger pool of securities that have come from united states or europe. if you do not like stocks right now because of that earnings uncertainty, how much conviction could you have around the long bond at a time where the fed is going really aggressive? andrew: i think that is one of the challenges. this is an environment where overall growth exposures, investors should try and keep those lower and stay more liquid. if we has -- as we have seen over the last 24 hour, price action can be volatile. it can be hard to manage those
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risks. there is a large amount of uncertainty. keeping lower exposure makes a lot of sense. i think it is trying to look for relative value and directional strategies at the moment. i think we are seeing a number of instances were relative value is working, despite the volatile environment. it would be something like oil, and asset we like, you have an inflation hedge that is pacing quite well to hold it, given how backward that curve is. jonathan: 3400 still the number for you on the s&p? andrew: that is where we think the risk reward still looks to come. jonathan: andrew sheetz, morgan stanley -- downside still to come. the equity market looks like this, we take back yesterday's rally down 1.9%. nasdaq 100 down point -- down by
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2.2%. 16 points ash up 16 points on the 10 year treasury. 10 year bond, 22. japan, 25 basis points, going nowhere. this bond market start out in japan. the bank of japan is sitting on it, how sustainable is that going to be? tom: no one thinks it is sustainable. at some point, that experiment and cultural experiment, behavioral experiment will end. how it ends, it is not my job to pontificate on that. i will say, this screen is original. i do not want to be gloomy, it doesn't harken back to 2008 or 2007, but it is majorly flighty. what i would watch, euro-dollar,
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103.94 with kid -- mid-may weakness. jonathan: ecb hasn't made a move, either on interest rates. lisa: although they are coming out effectively with that. jonathan: euro-dollar, 103.94. equities down. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the house committee investigating the january 6 2021 insurrection of the u.s. capitol will focus today on the pressure of then-president donald trump put on vice president pence to block congressional certification of president biden's presidential win.
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the hearing may include testimony from trump aids, when trump learned writers were invading the capital, he responded by saying pence, " deserved it." a new german model in defense planning. germany has identifying new units to be deployed at short notice. -- last week to hawaii. big win as the u.s. looks to confiscate russian assets to push oligarchs for their country's invasion of ukraine. it is now sailing under an american flag and managed by a new crew.
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-- said today, atomic power. the country will maintain the target maintained by the previous administration. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is a big change from the fed in going from magical thinking in terms of their earlier projections to more
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realism. the challenge lies ahead. jonathan: magical thinking. looking at the feds or cast. jeff rosenberg of lack rock, portfolio manager. good morning. futures down by -- on the s&p. nasdaq 100 down by 2.25. yields higher, up 15 basis points on a 10 year. not just the u.s., it is germany where yields are higher. 18 basis on a 10 year, do you remember when it was negative two minutes ago? euro, -17. tom: swiss national bank, 101. off our radar has been ukraine. so much news flow in economics
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and investment -- advancement, i have underreported it. odessa, through the black sea, past istanbul, down to tunisia is 42% of the wheat tunisia brings in. they are not doing that with ukraine. the price of wheat has gone from a to 70 level to a 400 level. the wheat and food remic -- ramifications of a tunisian shut down this morning is here and now. >> it is. many people have been forecasting this a long time. the political pressure, it comes from those who are supporting ukraine. the impact, some of the greatest impacts are coming from a different part of the world, africa, people who are relying on food that are suffering from rising food prices. that mobilization isn't ending channeled through our government.
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now, we have been slow to respond. there are many people saying, we have got to have some sort of effort to try and get the grain out of ukraine and russia to create some sort of exception for that, to ameliorate which could be devastating. tom: i saw a bond chart of u.s. cash commitment to ukraine versus others of the allies, i was thunderstruck at the size of the u.s. commitment. in the next six months, do the allies get their act together about the war and ammunition, but also about the food prices, which for tunisia, is here and now? leslie: there are a lot of things in that. the first thing, there is a concerted effort. the u.s. is going to spend more. there is a lot of division across europe with this. the u.k. is strongly aligned with the united states. germany is more torrent. even scandinavia, those numbers are lower. on the food question, there is
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a, how do you get those rain exports out of russia and ukraine? that is got to be an international effort. that is a complicated set of mechanisms that many people are working on. controversial, very important. a great risk for food insecurity, many people across the lobo south facing dire situations. also, the political impacts of that. lisa: you talk about the u.s. leading, there have been some question about the u.s. leading with a president largely thought to be a one term president, increasingly low popularity ratings. the expectation is, increasing for a recession, who leads the party forward? who is going to be the main compass of leadership over the remaining two years and beyond, in terms of the democratic party? leslie: you could argue that a one term president, if that is
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what president biden faces, is very far from certain. two years is a long time in u.s. politics. a one term president has the ability to take rave and old measures, probably not through congress -- brave and bold measures. we are watching january 6 hearings, watching how americans will respond to inflation. whether they will attribute the price rises they are feeling to the war in ukraine is a big question. i think there is a lot of division on that. these are mostly political questions. lisa: from a deeply political perspective, is it in the democrats best interest to make a conclusion? you said it is unclear whether he is a one term president. popularity ratings we have not seen in a long time in terms of how low they are. inflation at eight 40 year high. you think there is a feasible path for him getting reelected, and if not, do you think it is
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right to get the other person up and running? leslie: a lot will depend on who the republican party put forward, if they take the house, the senate after the midterm elections, what measures do they take, how the american public would respond to a democratic president impacted by a republican congress. to your broader question, of course president widen to have a -- president widen needs to have a -- president biden needs to have a strong administration. this is a president who is facing a difficult, domestic situation coming out of covid, coming out of an extended war that has gone on for many months, hitting and driving for inflation that is driving forward, potentially an economic recession here and across the
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world. u.s. policy that is deeply policies -- wallace eyes, a lot of that -- polarized. there is a lot to play, difficult to predict into what will turn out. the key thing is responding to this war, responding to the problem of inflation, responding to the multiple domestic concerns that are dominant domestically in the u.s. doing it and partnership with europe, but trying to build on questions, build that partnership. that is one of the biggest challenges. how does this present work with, not only with america's traditional partners, but to expand the international support for measures that will turn the needle for many who are facing dire circumstances on a daily basis.
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jonathan: leslie vinjamuri of chatham house. things changed the last few months, there is a feeling things could get worse before they get better, particularly going into the midterms later this year. tom: brent crude down to 117. i would suggest for the president, domestic politics is about a gallon of gas. as you heard from french hill, they drive in arkansas. jonathan: wages are not keeping up. lisa: that is going to be one of the main, driving issues as people head to the polls. jonathan: futures down 1.8% on the s&p 500. opening dow, four minutes away. ♪ hold for peyton. they'd huddle....
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jonathan: equities down 1.9% on the s&p. nasdaq down 2.2%. waiting for economic data out of the united states, jobless
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claims coming moments from now. loss for words. >> back in a situation where every data point counts. bad news is bad news whether we try to figure out whether the fed rate does 75 at the next meetings. we've got some numbers that will be interesting to the fed, do not look like they are going to make a lot of difference. jobless claims numbers come in surprisingly unchanged from last week. they are to 29, initially reported as 229 last week. actually was 231, you end up with a decline in jobless claims. the fed was looking to see if that is a harbinger of softness in the they were forts. apparently, not yet. housing starts, building permits jay powell said yesterday, the fed's rate increases are having an impact on housing. boy, down 14.4% last month.
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although, the prior month was in april revised from a 5.5% gain. maybe we are 9% difference. eldon permits, fall 7% after a 3% decline. pulling permits are falling. it does look like builders are starting to pull back. we did see that in the builders survey yesterday. we've got the philly fed number, people watching these regional feds to see how business is going around the country. not so good in philly, down 3.3. i am a bundle of joy. down from 2.6 the month before. problem for the fed in the philly fed, manufacturing lightening up, housing starts affected. still, jobless claims numbers. and i data that companies are starting to announce layoffs.
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at this point, we are not seeing a lot of people who are looking for work, out of a job. let me quickly look here, number of employees in the philadelphia fed survey. go figure. jonathan: loss and equities stick, down .1 .9%. the gain in the treasury yield, up 12 basis points to 340. those housing stats, that is uppity. that is the start of more to come in that part of the economy. lisa: one of the fastest moving markets i have ever seen. when you look at the all in cost and how unaffordable housing is, how much do we revert back to bad news being good news for the market? it signals you are getting that weakness which could potentially -- prompt the fed. housing market is key, specially
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given mortgage rates and run-up in prices. jonathan: the fed backing away because the economy is going to go for inflation. lisa: not necessarily backing away, but not raising rates as quickly as some people are to rejecting -- try ejecting -- projecting. what is the wager if the fed is going to 4% by next year? jonathan: the whole debate about september, i hate the idea that bad news is good news. you have got to think about why the fed would have to back way. inflation is coming down, if you have got to back away because the income data is dreadful and they have to tolerate much higher inflation for unger, that is a problem. tom: michael mckee with a huge -- yesterday. the chairman stumbled over
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nominal, how the economy should go about this. in tepid real gdp, you overlay substantial inflation. is that factoring in analysis right now? michael: the fed us supposed to target headline, headline numbers keep getting pushed up. the fed would like to look at the core rate of inflation. tom: it can't. michael: in terms of what policy, they do. the problem becomes, what do they say to the average person who is filling up their tank and paying $80, their confidence level goes down and they stop spending money? michael: mickey was ignored by chairman powell. jonathan: such a good question. you asked him whether a key chase in inflation would be
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fueled by crude, you were blunt about it. are we going to chase the oil market? michael: he said, we do not want to, but we may have to because that is what consumers respond to. the overhang of the news conference was, the fed is thinking it is going to have a tough time bringing down inflation. so much of it, they cannot control. that answer fed into it. tom: you know us better than anyone in the business. were you shocked by the dissent? michael: we were all surprised. there was a question, i wonder if anyone dissented. it was like, of all people. it probably came about because she didn't one to upset the forward guidance they had put in place before the meeting. i don't think she seriously thought there was not an inflation problem. jonathan: the wall street journal asking a question about,
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he should have turned in the towel on this guy. tom: fed whisperer's. jonathan: looking forward to jackson hill at the end of august. tom: it is a counter. you can hook your tony lama boots. right now, chief u.s. economist at rgb capital markets. tom, i want to go to your wheelhouse, wage dynamics. eci, wages and benefits. i adjust it for joe biden's crushing inflation. it is a chart i have never seen. how bad is our adjusted inflation, less wages? tom: can i say that mike mckee was brilliant yesterday. i loved those questions.
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this is something we have been talking about for a while. this idea that chasing energy, the thing you have limited ability to control, if any, is a tricky thing. i think this idea that inflations -- inflation expectations are rising, the idea that last friday. i think the five to 10 year -- is more important than the cpi. it needs to get to a point where it is fair to add at some point, what is driving inflation expectations higher. today, you make a case that it is pretty much everything. everything is rising. we are getting to the point where it is food and energy doing all the driving, those are the things the fed has limited ability, if any to control. i am sympathetic, but i think it
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is -- i think the fed needs an exit ramp from this. if they are going to push their wagon to energy prices, bonds are going to be higher, we push ourselves into a sharper slowing then we need to have. to your question, i -- wages are going to slow down. they are already slowing down. that is not a guess, that is what is happening. if we are right, the labor backup continues to soften, i think that will trigger what the fate of wages is. lisa: there is a school of thought that the fed got it wrong with their transitory thought, they cannot continue to give faith-based policy with respect to how quickly inflation will come down. second, if they do some sort of slow down now, it will be a shallow work slowdown, a shallower recession. why do you disagree? michael: i don't disagree --
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tom: i don't disagree. this could look like i 1994, 1995 scenario, that classic slowdown where you have a couple sectors in recession, you have some job losses, but things don't get so bad that you call it a recession. i think, if the fed can find this off ramp and not have to get too aggressive, i think a scenario like that could play out. if you have a couple of sectors that are slipping, consumer gets --, you have job losses. if this is chasing energy story, i do not know what the offramp on that is. i do not know -- no one knows how to forecast energy prices. you are chasing energy, i think you're going to put it in a
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place where you do not necessarily need to go. jonathan: tom porcelli, rbc capital. tom: this is an ancient conundrum. we are living in a nominal world. the fact is, we are nominal, living with inflation. in the fed's defense, there is a lot of research to eliminate out selected things. take out airfare, let me know. one oddity right now. jonathan: it is getting stickier, it has gotten broader the last few months. lisa: do we have to focus on the inflation expectation or have a special one that comes out? the key issue for me is that broader aspect.
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how much and how quickly do rents come down, how much does the cost of health care come down, how much do other costs around services based on how much wages go up go down, that might determine the trajectory of what the fed has to do. jonathan: housing stats down more than 14%. how much more are we going to see? kathy jones coming up, looking forward to that in the next hour on bloomberg tv. ♪ ritika: the leaders of germany -- and italy are in kyiv today. they traveled together by overnight train. in a show of salade it -- solidarity, the trip comes as a recommendation from the european commission that ukraine be granted candidacy to join the
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you. russia and china giving differing account in president gigi ping's with putin. they discussed trade and military types. china says there president called for peace and stability, mentioned no military ties. in the u.k., the spotlight is on boris johnson's scandal. it was suggested he had breached at ministerial code -- code. monkeypox is spreading in africa. the world health organization is raising concerns after cases were found in at least eight countries, the agency says it is not recommending mask -- mass
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vaccination. the who will hold an emergency meeting to assess whether the current spread of monkeypox constitutes a health emergency. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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today's challenges require real insights, to get to tomorrow's opportunities. ( ♪♪ ) what can we expect in the coming year? this has been a record- shattering year for m&a. five trillion dollars in deal value. and we're still very bullish on the deal market for 2022.
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in this kind of climate, what are you advising clients to focus on? we really think companies need to elevate their risk management processes and also scenario planning. what's your outlook, kim, for the 2022 labor market? organizations really do need to take a pivot on their lens of their people and talent from a cost center to make that a value creation center. for key insights into what matters today and what lies ahead for business, this is real time business with ey.
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close the fed caught up with market pricing on rate hikes the next couple of years. thought it would be more gradual. they said they would move expeditiously. tom: head of u.s. rates strategy, thanks to all of our guests yesterday who made for spirited conversation, we barely mentioned bitcoin.
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8000. lisa: people not seeing a place given the withdrawal of free money and real yields are real and yielding. tom: 21,000 on it coined right now. let's look at what matters to america, far more than the economics. the stock market, housing. four days across four fed meetings, 2022. look at the mortgage, fixed rate mortgage. the yield has gone up, 3.73 percent, 4.47%, jumping up to 5.5%, on debt 6%. kelsey barrow joins us now with jp morgan. the jp morgan world of bronze -- bonds, in the 30 year fixed mortgage. >> if you look at the fed fund
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rate, it has risen 150 basis point point -- points. we have seen the impact on the housing market from that move. we will continue to see the housing market decline. what is important to note about this move, this move in financial conditions, is it has been so severe. in any other scenario, the fed would have paused. the reason they haven't this time is that the inflation environment is not letting them. what spooked them last week is that university of michigan. yeah. absolutely. he mentioned the university of michigan sentiment taking a. what we know about the sentiment data and the university, it is correlated to gasoline prices. some of that increase in gasoline prices is out of their control. they are putting themselves in a
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difficult situation, one they are saying they are going to prioritize inflation overgrowth. tom: oil has gone to 118 on rent. we barely had a pullback on oil. lisa: it is not translating at a -- as a pullback at the pump. refined goods are not getting cheaper because they've a of refineries. how does this bleed into credit? investors were seeing the prospect of wider credit spreads, more credit losses being implied, despite the fact you do not see near-term maturities. do you agree it is the quality trade going to higher rated debt, or do you think there is value given the 8.5% yields and high yields? kelsey: the risk of recession is rising. if you look at current default rates, they are low. they need to normalize somewhat. corn -- corporate fundamentals are strong, companies have set
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them up for an environment where they are not concerned about credit losses. they have increased their cash, reduce leverage, and turned out that. if i look at the high yield market for --, less than 6% of the market is maturing in 2022 or 2023. there is not much that sensitivity in the high yields market, which has become much higher in quality than it has historically to these higher rates. i think there is going to be volatility. what we are focused on this summer is increasing the liquidity of our portfolios. the one thing that share port -- chair powell did not talk about was qt. qt is happening, we are seeing massive moves. we want to have the liquidity to sell it when it is expensive, rather than the need to buy it when there is a challenge. tom: is "increasing liquidity" the same as cash? lisa: how do you do that, is it with etf, cash or securities
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that are most traded? kelsey: it is dependent on the portfolio. at the baseline, we are thinking from going from off the runs to on the runs treasuries. things that are going to have less of a ability to be intermediated markets are quiet, when people are going out on summer vacations and things are more likely to trade more -- with more volatility. the bond market has gotten much bigger, -- balance sheets have not risen to accommodate that. we want to be prepared when people need liquidity to give it. lisa: this is shocking. a reversal of what we have seen for so long, when people were seeking out the liquidity. we are looking at the prospect of a fed driven volatility cycle we have not seen in a long time in credit. tom: i am looking, this has been a crusade of mine. we are in a bond air market,
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nobody is talking about it because nobody is used to it. if i look at the bloomberg, barclays, although return u.s. aggregate bond portfolio, these are double-digit losses. what is the plan? kelsey: absolutely. you have seen massive losses, particularly in long bonds. the moves in yields, the move over the week or month and compare them to the last five years are not just standard -- two standard deviation. we see seven deviation moves. on the other side, you have this new starting yield if you were to invest fresh capital now, that is more attractive. lisa mentioned, eight -- 8.5% on u.s. high yield is attractive and consistent with long-term returns on the equity markets. lisa: we round up the digits. tom: -13 on the u.s. aggregate portfolio.
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we cannot say enough about this, it is all brand-new. it is an ugly year for fixed income. lisa: it has been an ugly year for fixed income. 22 people get out and solidify losses. they get real yields. hold, buy, hold. coupon clipping they used to do. how much are people preparing for that volatility? for some kind of -- i do not want to see credit crisis. this gap up in the yields, price down, when we get withdrawal of the fed balance sheet. that is something i am hearing more of. tom: we have got a flighty take. the dollar has given away. the yen is having its first good day in ages, 132,75, . euro, 134. these are little moves. maybe we are overlooking that.
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lisa: that is the news. they are not massive declines or massive gains. people are trying to reset and looking for the next compass point. the fact jay powell could raise rates by 75 basis points, people didn't necessarily view this as the world falling. swiss national bank, not expected to move yet. tom: mexican peso across june, four standard deviations minus two of plus two is the move on weaker mexican peso. we continue through the day, and eventful thursday. historic as the swiss national bank acts, the bank of england, many surprises. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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>> features and down -- futures are down. the open starts now. >> everything you need to get started for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg deal been with jonathan ferro.


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