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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  June 16, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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you your wire return. more all well go you know you know >> good morning.
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welcome to daybreak australia. >> we are counting down to asia's major market open. >>i'm shery ahn. the s&p 500 hitting a december 2020 low as inflation fears grow. some currency traders are betting the central bank locates to tightening pressure. >> u.s. officials are trying to arrange a call between president biden and xi jinping as tensions remain high. >> u.s. futures are gaining ground after we saw the s&p 500 losing ground in today's session.
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we now have a j.p. morgan strategist saying the s&p 500 implies an 85% chance of arrest session. there are fears we could see i policy ever after the biggest hike since 1994. the nasdaq 100 moving more than 2% and the two year yield around the 3% level. tenure about the 3.2% level. the asian session is under a little pressure after a rally. no matter the risk off sentiment we saw, supply concerns are still moving the market. we also have the dollar plunging by the most since march 2020. this is to do with what is happening in europe. look at these currencies in europe. we are seeing a little move in the asian session after a huge jump against the u.s. dollar. the swiss franc father biggest rally since january 2015 with the swiss bank removes to a
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currency cap at a time when inflation is high. we saw the first swiss rate hike in years. that really made a big difference, the first rate hike in 15 years. after that, there were bets the ecb would move. the president came out and talked about not wanting irregular moves -- in the market. we also had the boe thinking rights this consecutive eat -- meeting. annabelle, it's about the marcus moves -- market moves and hawkish in us around the world. after that sharp decision from the s&p, there is a growing divide between what people are expecting in japan and those outside. the expectation is the doj will stay on hold today. outside, the expectation is growing that did be oj will --
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boj will adjust its program or abandonment. the yen expanding, the dollar dropping. japanese bonds looking a little weaker. nick a futures close to percent lower. equities, the start of the day in asia are risk off at the end of the week. new zealand 1.5% to the downside. haidi, australia is looking to a 2% selloff. >> it is all about theboj given we have other central banks out of the way. even the swiss national bank. it is creating this confluence effect when it comes to the boj. widening pressure when it comes to the yield differential and
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the stark difference when it comes to ratesetting. take a look at dollar/yen. we sought relief earlier across just about every other asset. when it comes to dollar/yen trading, still superhigh. shery, we talked earlier about the time where governor corrado was known for trademark policy decisions at this. there is still a possibility the governor could surprise us. >> remember you that have -- remember the halloween treat we covered years back. we are excited about this boj meeting. it feels different, especially when you see how the japanese yen has been moving. analysts say they will not do anything, it is too early, but you are seen currency options traders factoring in a whole different scenario. you saw the swiss national bank
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first rate hike in 15 years and the boe fifth consecutive move in rate hikes when inflation in the u.k. is at about 9%. they are seeing the peak around 11%. inflationary pressures around the world have really changed dynamics across the world. the central bank action is also fueling recession fears as stocks tumbled worldwide. we saw the u.k. contracting in the latest months of april. let's bring in strategist mark cranfield on the phone and our global policy analyst kathleen hayes. we saw a relief rally after the fed moved. it felt price in despite the fact it was a 55 basis point action. today feels different. what is going on. ? i think people have had the chance to reflect and decide that the initial interpretation
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that the fed was being dovish was not the right direction. a 75 basis point hike plus a promise of more to come with rates going up somewhere close to 4% by next year. that is certainly not a dovish situation, especially when you have data in the u.s. that shows signs of a slow already. that is a pretty nasty combination. we had equities down and bond yields slightly lower in the u.s., a sign you are either preparing for extended weakness in the equity markets, that will eventually lead to rate cuts in the future. so, the stagflation situation, traders are getting defensive. it sets up for a nasty third quarter because the pain in what he markets does not look like it will go away. bond traders do not expect too much relief because the central bank is still hiking.
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>> kathleen, so many central banks around the world are opting for jumbo rate hikes. the bank of england. why did they settle for a mere 25 basis points? >> a mere 25 basis points, even though it is the fifth time they have done it. they were the first major bank to start hiking rates coming out of the pandemic. now, they have kind of gotten behind in terms of how aggressive they feel they need or want to be. spit -- six members of the boe voted for the 25 basis point rate hike. three pushed for a 50 basis point move. andrew bailey the head of the boe said afterwards that the bank of england will, if necessarily, react forcefully to signs inflation is accelerating even further. they do expect it to accelerate. they raised their inflation forecast to 11%. inflation is already a 9%. you can see the big gap. what a move.
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at the same time, there are signs of recession. a small contraction in the economy and the second quarter could contract as well. the swiss national bank was one of the craziest things of all. no one was looking for any rate hike of any kind. 50 basis points, it's the first time they have done any kind of rate hike in 15 years. the swiss franc just took off. the swiss national bank mentioned rising inflation around the world and they also talked about the currency. the swiss franc was trying to approach parity with the euro. this was don't wanted to fall below that level. they talked about when they would buy swiss francs and when they would sell them. it is a sign that like other central banks, the currency is having an impact too. >> no wonder we are now seeing traders betting that the boj will move. >> certainly, traders are upping their bets.
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we can see how the fed number was at a 50 basis point rate hike and then, boom, 75 basis points. the thing is in japan the week yen and rising inflation are very unpopular. a survey asking about the bank of japan's governor. 59% said they do not think he is fit. they said he is unfit. 77% said his recent reversal on price hikes where he thought japanese people were being more tolerant of price increases were inappropriate. he has apologized for that at least twice in parliament already. that is putting pressure on him. traders are betting that if the fed moves the divergence between boj and fed policy will only continue to get wider. in a survey that bloomberg economic did, that was a big
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deal. one more thing. what you are just saying. all of these market bets on the doj tweaking policy that they will be forced to two as all of these economies do not expect anything done yet. as recently as monday, governor corona said he -- governor coroda said he doesn't sees the need for stimulus. back in 2018 the doj was defending the yield curve. as they were finalizing plans to widen the range, kuroda has not surprised yet, but there are a lot of reasons he could.
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>> implied volatility of the yen is at the highest since 2020. it seems like we will get more turbulence regardless of which way governor kuroda moves. >> foreigners are sensing a transfer for something to happen. what we could get today is a change in policy with the official statement. but, kuroda's press conference could be more interesting. the next meeting in july is usually when the bank of japan would issue a new forecast. if they change the policy at the same time they change the forecasts. they could get some hints from kuroda today that yield curve return will at least be adjusted in the near future. look at the way the market is so tough. the main contract in the jgb futures has a long way to run. the september contract has just started. there is plenty of time for
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people to position and not worry about the market for now. they have time on their hands. the bank of japan probably knows this. that is why they have been addressing certain bonds in the market to try to put off foreigners from attacking the bond market. this will be a head-to-head battle for a few weeks and the yen will be collateral damage in this. if foreigners get their way and start to push the japanese bond market, this will indirectly strengthen the yen as well. we are in for an exciting couple of weeks. the japanese yen is back on the market finally for macro traders. >> making japan exciting again. let's get to vonnie quinn with first word headlines. >> bloomberg learned u.s. officials are working to arrange a call between president biden and china's xi jinping as soon as july. no details have yet been revealed on what washington wants to focus on in the dialogue.
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the war in ukraine, taiwan, and human rights are among the sore points of the u.s./china relations. the leaders last smoke in -- spoke in march via video call. jake sullivan says that the u.s. will launch a global infrastructure initiative to counter china's international ambitions, particularly, in the indo pacific. the announcement is set for next week's g7 summit in germany. the initiative will cover both physical infrastructure. the european commission plans to recommend ukraine and moldova be granted candidate status to join the european union. the move would be a symbolic step forward in a lengthy process to join the box. eu leaders are set to discuss the move next week in brussels. olaf scholz, emmanuel macron, and mario draghi endorsed the move. same sex partnership systems
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throughout the japanese capital will make it easier for access but does not grant the same rights as full legal marriage. japan is the only g-7 country that does not give same-sex couples the right to marriage or civil union. number quick take powered by more than 2700 journalist and animus in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> it is been a massive week for central banks. national australia bank tells us if he expects any kuroda surprise. markets are inching towards a self-fulfilling prophecy of possible recession. the conversation is ahead. this is bloomberg.
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all i know now and your ex if
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they are serious about inflation, they will have to crack the u.s. economy hard.
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then, the recovery before you see a bottom. so, that's a long process. in the end, that we think that the fed will blink and choose to sustain asset prices lower than today. >> the one thing that the people are not prepared for is interest rates resetting meaningfully higher. we have gotten so used to feasting on ultralow interest rates. i do not think that people realize, you know, where equities will trade in a resetting market where risk-free rates are 4% or 5%. >> concerns about a potential recession have really pulled the u.s. market down in this session. the s&p 500 losing more than 3%. futures were abounding in the asian session. it is still early in today, but we will see if we can maintain the gains. the percentage of s&p 500 members that are trading above
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the 50 day moving average sinking below 5% this week, the lowest number since covid-19. we continue to see all of this uncertainty about where the fed is headed, not to mention, of course, a potential recession coming here to the u.s.. let's bring in our next guest that says we are moving towards a self-fulfilling prophecy of declining growth and perhaps recession. with us is mariann montagne. always great to have you. how much does recession risk as truly -- actually color the assets you are choosing to invest in now? >>, well, we have become a more defensive. we have moved away from tech because of rising rates. with the exception of some tech names that have high growth and are selling at low teams multiples. but we have moved from tech in
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general towards more defensive retail names like target and walmart. also, parts stores, advanced auto and o'reilly. >> are those more removed from the consumer discretionary parts of the economy? are you focusing more on cheaper stores? >> yes. they are cheaper. o'reilly sells for 11 times forward earnings while the market multiple is in dickstein now -- in 16 now. or stable consumer discretionary names, if there is such a thing. so, the everyday items you need. cars are getting older as we are unable to purchase new cars for lack of materials. the average age of the car is at a record high, over 12 years old. that's the average age of a used
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car and you will need parts to fix that car. >> mariann, so much of what you say is a self fulfilling prophecy. does that have to do with the embedded inflation expectation and is that a worry with perhaps the fed being behind the curb, and now these big jumbo hikes are further cementing inflation fears in society? >> well, the consumer expectations of high cost, high inflation will cause them to pull back. i mean, they weakly go to the gas station and see that there is may be a $15 gain against their disposable income. there are higher energy costs that hurt the people at the lowest end of the income spectrum the most. they will cut back on discretionary spending in the face of rising inflation. inflation is almost 100% energy.
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it is a combination of the current administration regulations on energy production and also the sanctions against russia and the demands for energy across the globe that is there that may be accelerating because of china opening. this is not under the control of the federal reserve. so, we need more production. we need energy out there. we don't need to be talking about eight years down the road how we need less energy. we need more energy now. we are getting closer to the 90 days before the congressional election with the economy really matters to voters. it is the economy that full
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drive voters to decision-making. if they are anticipating higher expenses and cutting back on spending as a result, that will influence how they vote for congress. you may have a real change in the makeup of congress as a result. >> what are your recession inflation hedges? i know you house gold. are you keeping cash? are you looking at energy and commodity exposure? >> yes, we are still about 100% invested. that is our mandate. we need to be 100% invested. we need to preserve capital investing in ets that curve for test cover mergers and acquisitions covering calls. this is in our etf portfolio. we also offer a portfolio that
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addresses palladium, seltzer gold. >> always great to have you with us mariann montagne gradient investments senior per folio manager. yet updates on today's edition of daybreak. get settings customized so you get news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. i will call you on my mind are
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your buyer are like her you are you are way >> late a paycheck
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of the latest business/headlines . elon musk held his first meeting with twitter staff since agreeing to buy the company for $44 billion in mid april. musk said people should be able to tweak pretty outrageous things.
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musk spoke of options like a subscription model. less than a day after revlon filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy citigroup's now famous payment ever to lenders has been raised as an issue. the balance of a $900 million loan. they failed to get most of it back. papers now show the banks blunder. bridgewater -- ray dalia of bridgewater associates is the biggest storyteller of european stocks waging almost against him including a $1 billion position against the chipmaker and a position worth about $750 million. we have plenty more to come on daybreak australia. this is bl another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business.
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have >> new zealand tmi coming here. a more optimistic future when it comes to the tmi number rising to 63.9. rising from 51.2 in april according to the bank of new zealand. that is far above expansion territory. some indexes are above 50. orders are moderating a little bit from over 5553. excess demand alleviated during the month of may. we will see court inflation pressure play out. there is still shortages of both labor and materials after we saw the sharp contraction for the new zealand economy in the first quarter. we saw the impact of omicron spreading on the economy, just half the pace economists had
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been predicting. with the reopening of economic activity, it sets up economic activity for new zealand going into the second quarter to really change the nature of what we expect from what was a very hawkish start. the key we is pretty steady at this point -- kiwi dollar is pretty steady at this point. >> why it is too far or too fast. at a meeting in luxembourg, a new mechanism intended to prevent economic pressures from market movements. the ecb is set to embark on its first interest rate hike in more than a decade. the swiss franc saves its biggest rally in years against the euro and u.s. dollar after this was national bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 basis points.
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the euro is off by the most against the frankincense brexit -- the was frankincense brexit in 2016. the bank of england raised interest rates for its fist straight meeting -- fifth straight meeting, the highest since 2009. 1.25 percent. the boe send the sharpest signal yet it is preparing for larger move this needed to tame prices. it raised forecasts for peak inflation this year to slightly above 11% and expect the economy to contract in the current quarter. one central bank raised benchmark interest rates by 12.5 basis points and reduced liquidity. seeking to rein in inflation without hurting the economy, most economists surveyed by burke expected a 25 point basis move.
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global news 24 hours a day on air powered by more than 27 hundred journalists and analysts from more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. >> u.s. officials are working to arrange another call this summer between joe biden and xi jinping as tensions between the two countries remain high over ukraine and taiwan in particular. that spring in our chief north asian correspondent stephen ingle in hong kong. isn't this call happening and when? >> it could happen as early as july according to sources that have been working close to the u.s. officials trying to get this whole call to happen. it could happen in august. it is very unlikely to think they will have a face-to-face meeting. the party congress in autumn will be either in october or november. that is when xi jinping will likely secure his third straight term in all current -- office. in november in the asia-pacific we have the apec
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gatherings in bangkok and the g 10 in bali the same weekend. but we are getting ahead of ourselves. the u.s. wants a phone call with china. these two gentlemen have not spoken since march 18. it was constructive, but on some contentious issues, you mentioned taiwan, and particularly ukraine, it got a little frosty. biden warned xi jinping there would be consequences if the dutch china supplied it -- if china supplied support form vladimir putin in ukraine. biden was in and asia-pacific meeting with allies in south korea and japan hosting a quad meeting, participating in a quad meeting. more recently, u.s. officials say they are increasingly alarmed at chinese rhetoric, increasingly in private conversations. the chinese have been saying that the taiwan strait is not international waters. so, there is a lot to discuss
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since the last call on march 18. this is what nicholas byrne said, the u.s. ambassador to china. he says, we want stability in the relationship with china and that takes connection. he goes on to say that intense diplomacy is underway to make a xi jinping/biden call happen and under call would follow what has transpired this week, national security advisor jake sullivan and china's top diplomat meeting this week in luxembourg. that is perhaps a precursor to the big xi jinping/biden phone call. >> stephen engle our chief patient correspondent. china will get fresh insight into how it's covid zero policy is affecting consumers when the midyear shopping festival opens for business saturday. the nation's number two online retailer expects the recovery to take months, even after lockdowns are lifted.
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the ceo spoke to bloomberg. >> we believe that the 16 team shopping festival -- 618 shopping festival this year will surpass last year but the chinese economy has been under pressure as a result of waves of covid outbreaks that cost so much uncertainty to the economy. in the second quarter particularly, the central government and companies including j.d. ourselves were under pressure. it has massively hit overall consumption. from the second quarter, we have not seen a full recovery in consumption yet. >> the impact of the virus, the virus prevention measures has been very large. has there been a difference geographically? >> the impact of covid on cities is obviously larger. we are seeing no rapid recovery at the end of this wave and that is very worrying to us. we are happy to see growth in
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some cities is higher than tier one cities. >> in a city like shanghai, even though the lockdown is lifted you have not seen a rapid recovery in consumption. >> there has been a recovery in shanghai. we have sold a lot of refrigerators. people have lingering fears and hope to stock up on living necessities. but this is compensation consumption instead of revenge consumption. >> do you think this is temporary? or, do you think it will last for some time? >> it could last longer. the outbreak this year has truly impacted the economy and people's incomes. that's different from the impact of the outbreak in 2020. the outbreak this year completely cut off supply chains, both international and domestic. this has indeed impacted people's incomes. it will probably take longer to recover.
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>> do you expect the problems to be reflected in second-quarter results? >> yes. it's actually already reflected. in april our warehouses were all shut down in some areas. >> there has been talk that j.d. and gaga are working together to deliver services. >> j.d. has increased investment in dada, a company held by j.d. because we are complement tree in certain areas. -- complementary in certain areas. we have considered and explored the core business other market competitors are doing. dada is strong in city delivery. we did thoroughly consider it. as to when we start doing that, it depends on our capacity.
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>> the regulatory environment in china has changed a great deal. what has been the biggest impact on your business? >> china is more sensitive to regulation, but our understanding of regulation might be different from the markets. people saw tighter regulation last year, but they did not see how relaxing the environment was for the internet industry in 2012 and 2013. it is easy to have a stark comparison between the two relaxed environments and a tighter environment. but i believe we will see a deterministic signal for the internet or technology industry. where the rule is, and where the redline is. >> j.d. retail ceo xin lijun there.
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another big monetary decision is coming up. the boj facing pressure to drawing -- joint global. . --join global peers. this is bloomberg.
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we will >> really, the big
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question is, can we change bank of japan policy in a significant way? that's a big debate. people have different views. i am personally concerned that global inflation will creep into japan. but, i am confident they will move on their own timeline and will not be bullied into the move. they have plenty of power -- firepower to prevent that. >> the bridgewater cio greg jensen weighing in there. let's get the views from the head of fx strategy in sydney. let's look at this chart.
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we saw a relief rally across most asset classes priced in and high volatility for the young state very high -- the yen stayed very high. you expect governor kuroda will deliver a surprise? >> i would be extremely surprised if the bank of japan moves today. i wholeheartedly endorse the view that policy is increasingly untenable where you have yields rising. what that policy is doing particularly to the yen and the volatility you talk about, if you go back 10 days to a speech governor kuroda gave he was so emphatic about the need to persist with existing policy until we see things like wage
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growth that will generate sustainably higher inflation around 2%. we are not there yet despite headline inflation. so, i think anything that does happen will be trying to create less volatility in the country. i don't think the levels are particularly troublesome here. we had consolidation given a high volatility environment. we have been saying since the beginning of the year we thought it would be the second half of the year. despite the last week or so, we have not changed that view. >> if they do brace themselves to write it out and hope it is on the supply side, what happens to the yen? >> 135 is a big level. we have touched that and recoiled from that. presumably the knee-jerk response is an action from the bank of japan. we will see that move down 135, 132.
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we still have negative risk sentiment. that is a factor for the yen treasury yield. that will fall from the high. i think between the low one 30's and back up to 135 we could see a lot of volatility but i don't think we will see a 140 on the back of the bank of japan announcement today. >> when we talk about potential yield curve control down the line, what are we talking about? what will that due to to the yen? >> well, i spoke to two options. three times since the advent of the 0% why cc -- ycc policy, it started at i think .1 and is currently .25. the most obvious tweak would be to raise the tolerance levels may be .5%.
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that would have some impact on the spread with u.s. treasuries that have been the principal driver of dollars/en strength. in the complete abandonment of that we would expect much higher yields. the implications for that on the physical side, as well as how much pain the bank of japan balance sheet would take, ultimately, the bank of japan might forgive a lot of japanese debt. but obviously, the financing cost from the government given their debt level is about 200 percent gdp, if interest rates go from 45 to 75 basis points, that's a possibility. i think a tweak to the policy is probably more likely in the second half of the year then a complete abandonment of the policy. obviously, that is where we will get, but i think only when the bank of japan is confident.
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>> bloomberg viewers can check out hypothetical stories about the yield curve rising, a $200 billion hit or so for the bank of japan. obviously, the weakness of the japanese yen is also to do with the strength of the u.s. dollar given yields rising. in today's session, the european central banks seem to be tightening at a faster pace which puts pressure on the dollar as well. where is that headed? >> it's interesting. coming in today, seeing how much risk selloff we had, i am very surprised to see the u.s. dollar weaker and not stronger. that is really bucking the trend where the dollar has really benefited either from rising u.s. yield door from -- yields or any risk sentiment. for the past weeks we have had both of those together and that is why the u.s. dollar has made news cycle highs. i think certainly that the
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recession concerns in the u.s. this week, plus, european central banks that look like they will be acting more aggressively, not necessarily dragging the chain relative to the fed. i think that has also contributed to a somewhat softer dollar. but i also think it is too soon to be running off the dollar and saying that this pullback means we have reached a high. a lot of analysts rush to do that. last month we had a pullback from above 1052103 in one of the main dollar indices. in this stage given that risk markets have fully priced in the risk of not just a u.s. but a global recession i think risk off markets equated to a u.s. dollar being stronger, or certainly stronger for longer. >> is that risk off for currencies like the aussie too? the minimum wage hike, is that meaningful at all?
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the fundamentals, exports, commodities, that's very strong. >> absolutely. you have these two tectonic plates. the fundamental fair value for currency should be meaningfully higher. you have this enduring correlation between risk sentiment and the aussie dollar. those two forces have been playing against each other. on the crosses in particular because of the sense of trade shock that australia is in doing -- enduring relative to japan and other commodity importers. >> the ozzie/en would be a success? >> probably still. >> always great to have you with us head of fx strategy ray attrill here in sydney. we are seeing bets growing that
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we may be in a tight spot today. >> yes. capital markets are not buying it this morning. the bank of japan needs to be able to justify any policy decision in the context of its domestic objectives. that's reaching a 2% inflation target. current forecasts show it still far away from that. let's look at forget -- speculation in money markets. this does show that amanda to hedge one day prior -- the demand to hedge one day price swings in the yen out to levels we have not seen since 2020. shery, options traders here are indicating we could see some surprise like we had from the smp. >> that is perhaps also acting as a safe haven despite recession fears. what is j.p. morgan saying? >> they are saying there is an
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85% chance of recession in u.s. stocks. what they are looking at is the 26 percent drop in u.s. stocks over the past 11 recessions. you can see we are in a bear market already for u.s. stocks. part of the risk, according to j.p. morgan, is that recession fears become self-perpetuating. all of this talk of a slowdown makes people change their consumption and investing behavior. stocks imply an 80 per euro stocks -- euro stocks imply an 80% chance of inflation. >> coming up, we look at how citigroup's infamous payment error is affecting revlon restructuring plans. the details ahead. this is bloomberg.
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citigroup's now infamous payment error to lenders has now come up in cosmetics bankruptcy. what is the latest on the legal battle? >> we are back to thinking about citigroup and is a nearly $1 billion mistake in payment they made. citigroup is waiting for a decision on an appeal about whether or not they can recoup
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this money. as a result, revlon is in bankruptcy. it's a little unclear if citigroup has creditors rights in this case. >> so, who has the rights now that we are saying revlon in bankruptcy? how do we determine what happens from here? >> the real answer is, we don't know yet. citigroup believes they have rights at this time, but, because their appeal has not yet been decided, it could also be the lenders in the case. so, the real winners here are the lawyers that will be arguing about this in court for a long time. >> how does this affect innovation efforts? >> it could potentially draw out the renovation. there are a lot of legal questions at play. >> bloomberg's claire boston there. coming up, recession could be coming in the u.s..
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we discussed that with the head of market strategy paul christopher. daybreak asia is next as we move towards the bank of japan decision really rounding out what has been a turbulent week for central-bank decisions. some parts of the market are expecting or hungry about the possibility of a surprise from governor kuroda. after a surprise move from the swiss national bank and five straight rate hikes from the bank of england as well. more to come. this is bloomberg.
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