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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  June 21, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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for us all. join stand up to cancer, count me in, and patients already participating at rigid in the process,i can onlya breaking point in a gradual process here. lisa: i would argue a lot of this depends on how much conviction the federal reserve has in terms of tightening. do they really have the appetite to spur a deep and long recession. that is really underscoring every analyst note. tom: dr. your denny made clear that he thinks the comparisons to the late 1970's come early 1980's are not there. i am hesitant to say yen plunges but we are getting close to the use of that word here at a 136 .32. lisa: how much are we looking at examining the contours of recession what has already been priced in in terms of the gloom of whether we will reach a breaking point, at a time when
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earnings are still solid, when >> right now, the market is you see lennar coming out with really oversold. >> market believes the fed will better-than-expected earnings after losing 44% this year? strangle inflation. >> we have seen markets over the is there a sign with analyst past six to nine months mark up recommendations note that you are reading that we have peaked in terms of pessimism? aggressively for the expected funds rate. kailey: the likes of jp morgan >> this is time for investors to take advantage of the carnage. >> we can see the peak in already calling for peak pessimism earlier, saying that yields. that should be support for the equity markets in the summer months. the second half looks better. >> this is bloomberg recession pricing has been overdone. surveillance with tom keene at the same time, you have peter jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. lisa: cracks deepening in the oppenheimer at goldman sachs saying only a moderator session is priced in. economy as exemplified by an ever weakening yen. this is bloomberg surveillance. the s&p needs to be lower by jonathan ferro is off, kailey another 15 to 20%. leinz is very much in. but the earnings question is a good one because if the market dollar-yen weakening to the weakest going back to 98 versus is this pessimistic, does that the dollar. leave room for upside surprises tom: it is not only weak yen but on earnings? could the earnings story the rate of change, and the reinforce all of that pessimism
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if we don't see margins holding? estimates of where this really lisa: you know that i love matters for our listeners and gloom. viewers. the pop in the market is nouriel roubini in doha this highlighting the fact that you could be looking in certain morning looks at 140, not too spots. far from a 136. yields up a little bit, priced lisa: how much is this pushing down in bonds, but nothing the bank of japan see how far they have to go, highlighting extraordinary other than the foreign-exchange channel. the strain transmitted through tom: brent crude 116 gives us a the fx channels as the bank of little bit of a lift. japan keeps its thumbs on its bond? tom: the institution of culture greg anderson, steven gallo at is stunning. bmo capital markets model out it is not dated, it is just so 138 yen and make clear it could go much weaker through 140 and even higher than that. speaking of great experience, megan horneman joins us now, director of portfolio strategy at verdence capital advisors. how have you reallocated? what is the nuance you have done in the last couple of days?
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megan: we are looking at areas of a market that you mentioned earlier had priced in that pessimism. we noted session's are rising, highly likely over the next 12 months, but what has the market priced in? when you look at the small and mid-cap space, developed international, these parts of the market have fallen in the u.s. between 30 and 40%. this is pricing and a lot of that pessimism. we think there is room to go in the high mega cap technology stocks. if you can look within the u.s. equity market and also internationally. lisa: you talk about buying into the downturn and avoid selling at the lows. how do you do that heading into this downturn? megan: coming into this downturn, we had dry powder. we knew the market was looking
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frothy. he didn't have anything to do from the economics standpoint. we saw a slow down the first half of the year but we knew the market was frothy. we have been gradually putting money to work in those areas i mentioned. you cannot look at this market on a day by day or week by week basis. if you look at history, their market happen, we are in one right now. if you are in one when you hit the 20% decline, when you look at the long-term, returns in the market are still favorable. you have to be patient, be comfortable with the volatility, have dry powder to put to work. lisa: how much of your optimism hinges on the idea that the fed will not go as far as people think, that there is not a vulgar on the federal reserve, will not cause the on appointment rate to rise to 5.8 45 years? megan: the way the recession both format will be a consumer led recession.
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we know manufacturing is still needed to clean up the supply chain. the labor market is still supportive. i think the fed will have to be aggressive. i think it will be front and loaded. we will see that in the summer and into the quarter but the consumer will pull back. if you look at historically at recessions, the consumer right now is ok from the household balance sheet perspective. savings have been dried up because of the rise in energy and food services -- prices, but that services are still low. there will be pullback in certain parts of spending. kailey: what about corporate balance sheets? megan: they have really enjoyed a decade of easy monetary policy. they have restructured balance sheets, they are in good position. it is the operating positions that are unclear right now. we will get more information once we get earnings season
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started in july, what they see going forward. the margin pressure is the biggest concern there. kailey: our market expectation still too high with three and a half weeks before jp morgan kicks things off? megan: i think certain pockets of the market, u.s. large-cap, technology, growth areas, still some room for margin contraction there. other heirs of the market have priced this in. tom: thank you so much, megan horneman, joining us with verdence capital advisors. i am sure you will see this through the day, but you will see it first here on bloomberg surveillance. dalio up in connecticut ways in. ray dalio with a piercing note this morning. reducing inflation will come at a great cost at the edge of stagflation. he has the language, painfully
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squeezed and reducing spending. lisa: this is the bear case. some are giving it will not get to that extreme. others saying that is what is required to bring inflation back to that 2% level, that the fed reconfirmed as their goal. the issue i have is, yes, we heard from jay powell, we will be hearing from him on capitol hill about their commitment to the 2% inflation rate, but when do we have to get back to it? 2035? or do they need to get back to it by the end of next year, because that will be an impossibility unless you get some of the pain that we heard from larry summers? tom: productivity as a solution, and the word linked to that is technology. maybe for the optimistic crew it is more about technology leading to productivity which gets us out of this quagmire. kailey: i wonder what that means
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longer term for the implement picture in the u.s. small businesses have positioned that they cannot pay the higher wages in order to entice those employees to come in. at what point do those jobs just get replaced by automation, technology? what does that mean structurally for the labor market, which already looks different during the pandemic? 5% unemployment? perhaps more over the coming years? how does that fit together? tom: what you do with foreign-exchange, you try to triangulate. stronger yen, weaker euro. i am looking, as well, at aussie-yen.
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we have not gone through to strong aussie, weaker yen. lisa: you are going to say it is much as possible. we are looking now at a very changed dynamic. what is the pressure point for the yen? nouriel roubini says 140. i don't think they will say, we give up. i'm not buying that right now. tom: we will give you the continued data check. futures up 52. we are watching the historic week yen. -- weak yen. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, let's get to the first word. i'm ritika gupta. elon musk sees recession in the u.s. in the near future. he spoke to john micklethwait. >> recession is inevitable at
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some point. as to whether there is recession in the near term, i think that is more likely than not. not a certainty, but it appears more likely than not. ritika: the interview was a part of the qatar economic forum. president biden says he could suspend the federal gas tax. the move would likely require congressional signoff and could not be taken by executive action. gas prices now average $4.98 a gallon, short of the record set last week. russia warns two americans captured fighting for ukraine could face the death penalty. a spokesperson for vladimir putin says they are not likely protected by the geneva convention as prisoners of war.
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moscow considers them soldiers of fortune and not a part of the ukrainian army. the biggest real strike in three decades is underway. some 40,000 workers are walking out today, thursday, and saturday, bringing commuter services to a halt, causing chaos in london. kellogg says it will split into three independent companies. the company says the move will give each business a better opportunity to grow. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.
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>> i don't see a paul volcker out there. he said, i have to bring inflation down. the only way that will happen if i let interest rates ago up to whatever level they need to go to to bring inflation down. u.s. history shows the most effective way to bring inflation down is to have a recession. tom: i have a conversation of the day on the economics you are living. and when you're dead he at yards any research. he was blistering on this compare and contrast foolishness to the era of paul volcker. some parts keeping as you look at markets. stephen gallo at bmo capital markets just reaffirmed weak euro to 102, which is remarkable when you combine begin, weak euro, i think that means strong
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dollar. lisa: how much conviction is there for the fed to keep on going? the long dollar call was their main hedge. does that keep working against the pressure that people feel it unemployment keep sticking up? tom: my tie is a mess. somebody help me. lisa: they are clamoring to help. tom: euro-yen is what the pros look at, 143.72 kansas near that 145 level. yen weakness. i would also mention the australian dollar. lisa: paul mcnamara who's been in the market for decades noted on twitter, for people younger than me, 1998, the last time we
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saw the yen at this level, it bounced back 22% in three months. that required policy intervention. do we end up with the same kind of policy intervention, what will it take to get there? tom: liz ann saunders with a great chart showing the price decreases in housing have sped up. at least price and decrease growth in housing. kevin book is with us, clearview energy partners. weaker yen and the import ramifications of japan and others. research over the weekend on what russia is doing with their hydrocarbons. they are moving it to india. maybe to japan, i will not speak to that, china, whatever. what part of the russian oil movement has your attention with
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clearview energy's global perspective? kevin: good morning. first of all, the amount that china is buying, that really shelters russia right now. second is that the products and not necessarily have the same home. those are big refining destinations, china and india. crude is fine, but they have some products of their own, so they don't need as much refined product. that disappears if they cannot find a market. lisa: i want to ask you all of these it is a good question but i just want to know how high gas prices can go in the united states, given the call by jp morgan and others for six dollars gasoline. kevin: did you think we would be at five now? we are one major hurricane or refinery outage on the way of a significant uptick on its own. crude is aiming higher.
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if you see real sanction go into force, i don't know how price caps will work just yet, skeptical how they will work in the end, but the sanctions that the eu put in place threatened to squeeze even more. six dollars is not unreasonable. lisa: what is the pressure reliever here, given we have heard about gas taxes, and if anything, that may actually cause prices to go higher because it will allow demand to keep on climbing. what do you see as a policy prescription to cap prices where they are and send them lower. kevin: i suppose nothing solves high prices like i prices, but also slower growth. the administration is looking at solutions that are on the dwindling end of the option set. they have already drawn from the spr. now they are looking at things like product export limitations,
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not outright bans but caps, keeping some products home. yes, it gasoline tax holiday. but as you suggest, that could preserve demand. that thing that could put immediate relief in price are outside of the administration's comfort zone. the things like waving air quality standard for vapor pressure. that is not something that they will do. kailey: this is an administration that came into office with a climate agenda that have been trying to lead a charge toward cleaner energy. if you are and oil company, why would you ramp up your capacity knowing, at the end of the day, people want to phase out fossil fuels? kevin: drill today, disappeared tomorrow is not an investment thesis. one last bender before america goes green and sober will not cause capital to loosen. it is something to talk about
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transition will also ramping at the same time. tom: are you predicting six dollars a gallon gas? kevin: we don't predict prices. we predict direction, and we see upside. lisa: that is his way of saying probably. tom: kevin, thank you so much. greatly appreciated. we will all be driving vw diesels in a few weeks. that is an important point. in the old days, it was a diesel. diesel is no more expensive than gas. lisa: part of it has to do with the inelastic demand. truck drivers have no choice, they have to use diesel in the united states. it is not that people will give up their diesel cars. they already have, and that is an issue.
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tom: stay with us through the next 30 minutes. we have pooja sriram from barclays, their u.s. economist. win thin will also join us from brown brothers harriman this historic day, the weakening of the japanese yen. that is a huge move. lisa: the pressure is building. the bank of japan is trying to resist it but the pressure is building. at what point does this become the bad inflation on steroids? tom: we will have to see, and many others writing in right now. pooja sriram will be with us, u.s. economist at barclays. looking forward to that on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio. dow futures up.
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nasdaq up 1.6%. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: bloomberg surveillance. man eventful tuesday all of a sudden. kailey, what time is crypto? kailey: 1:00 eastern time. tom: 21,000, a little bit off the game. nice recovery here from 17,000. leinz driving crypto done over the weekend. win thin will be joining us here from brown brothers harriman. lisa: how much of this exemplifies the stress? i'm curious what he has to say about this verse is policy divergence. does this highlight some of the concern in markets about a recession, inability for central bank to stop raising rates to the expectations of the markets? tom: we are going to talk to
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pooja sriram, u.s. economist from barclays. let's go from wea yen to strong dollar. how does a strong dollar changes the degrees of freedom that jerome powell has? pooja: thanks for having me. a strong dollar is definitely something that is favorable for import prices. it should help in the long term to try and relieve some pressure at least from imported inflation. tom: president trump would say we need to bring the dollar down to spur exports. we have not heard that from president biden so far. give me the export side of that equation. pooja: it is true that a stronger dollar would be slightly unfavorable foreign exports, but the focus now is on
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taming inflation pressure. from that point of view, the stronger dollar is -- absolutely. lisa: going to ed yardeni's point, they will not raise rates into recession. is that an accurate characterization of what you expect from the central bank? pooja: absolutely. no central bank wants to engineer a recession. what we saw in their summary of economic projections, what we heard from chair powell, they are acutely aware that there is likely to be some pain in the economy if they wish to bring price pressures under control. what they showed us through the 75 basis point rate hike in the june fomc, and what the dot plot shows us, they are willing to push the limits over here to try and get expeditiously to neutral. even if that comes at the cost of slightly lower growth, slightly more unemployment,
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that's a chance they are willing to take at this point. lisa: if you go to the projections, we also have to go to this place called fantasyland, this idea that rates remain on muted even with this hawkish tilt. what is the breaking point for policy makers more broadly in terms of the unemployment rate when you have the likes of larry summers projecting 5% unemployment for five years needed to bring inflation down? pooja: i think they are in a tough spot. the trade-off between achieving price stability and full employment is becoming increasingly challenging. i think we are in a tough inflation environment. i do agree to your point that their projection that they have laid out in their summary do seem a little optimistic. some may call it a rosy picture, aspirational even. but i think what the fed is likely to look at going forward
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is how the data evolves. that is a message that chair powell has given us multiple times. i think that will be there focus as of now. kailey: what data will they be looking at between now and july as they look at 50 or 75? pooja: top of the list would definitely be the june cpi inflation print. they will see signs whether inflation pressures continue to accelerate across core categories particularly. the university of michigan inflation print will be another important indicator that they will look at. then we have the employment report that comes at the beginning of the month. outside of that, they will also continue to look at some of the other data points in terms of how retail sales involve, -- people all of, what is happening with housing. we are getting the sense that
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housing is beginning to feel the pinch of tighter financial conditions. i think it will be a whole set of these data points that they will keep an eye on. that is what they will likely deliberate on before making their policy decision. kailey: focusing on the inflation expectations, powell cited that directly, saying we saw that university of michigan number, and that is why we went to 75, did not wait to do so. jim bullard talking about the risk of inflation expectations getting out of control. how large of a credibility problem does the federal reserve have right now, what is the likelihood that you put around something like that happening? pooja: credibility was probably an issue that they were concerned about going into the june fomc meeting, the reason why they did such a statement hike, hawkish shift to their dot plot. having done that, they have been
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successful in reinstating credibility around their price stability mandate. as of now, inflation expectations look reasonably well anchored. a move up in the university of michigan print was a cause of concern, but right now, it does not seem to be running away. tom: barclays says there is able elections to 75 bps back-to-back, putting you in a less hawkish camp. how close are they to their comfortable neutrality? not some statistical ballet. but if it is nonlinear, how close are they to the point that they are aware it is nonlinear, and there is a huge impact, is it fall, now coming next year? pooja: they are getting there. getting close to their estimate of the neutral rate. like you said, we are slightly below consensus, calling for a
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50 basis point hike in july. we think right now we are seeing signs that tighter financial conditions are likely weighing on economic activity already. we think these signs are likely to intensify as we get into the july meeting. maybe that is likely to conclude that policy is inching into restrictive territory already. tom: the bloomberg financial conditions index, which is really good, is one standard deviation down today. lisa: things are tightening, and you see that in mortgage rates. pooja, how much buying power does the consumer still have? one of the biggest questions has been the power of the consumer. we have heard about how they are so strong, balance sheets are so terrific. are they really that good right now? pooja: household balance sheets
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still look reasonably healthy. savings they accumulated over the course of the pandemic are still about $2.5 trillion, but we are seeing signs consumers are likely pulling back on spending. we have seen the momentum in spending is slowing. we see that in retail sales. we track high-frequency credit card data. we see signs that spending has slowed across goods and services. to your point, the savings rate has also dropped well below pre-pandemic levels. despite the fact that they have decent balance sheets to rely on, it looks like they are becoming a little bit hesitant about spending. eroding purchasing power is a key concern among consumers right now. tom: thanks for joining us, pooja sriram with barclays. the publications on yen are
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coming fast and furious. deutsche bank. seven days ago, it was absolutely stunning how the bank of japan -- and it is a cliche, but original territory. lisa: in order to keep the yield curve control they have committed themselves to, they have been buying an unprecedented amount of bonds. 2 trillion yen of debt at the last option. it is meaningless. he says the monthly run rate is double the rate at peak abe nomics. it is the gdp equivalent of the fed doing $750 billion of monthly quantitative easing in the united states. that is what is required to keep their commitment to ultralow rates. tom: bmo says right now tw a
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standard deviation moves. 137.96. lisa: at what point does this become the canary in the coal mine? at what point does the fed become concerned about the strength of the dollar? tom: i thought bit dog was a canary in the coal mine. lisa: what does that mean? tom: no idea. you are going to interview the canary in the coal mine. kailey: we are going to take a look at the technicals. this matters to this asset class in particular. supposed to be support broken over the weekend, rebound taking shape today. what are the charts telling us about whether that rebound will be sustainable, if this is an actual bottom formed in the cryptocurrency market? has enough deleveraging occurred
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that you will not see that forced selling pressure? all questions that we want answers to. 1:00 eastern. tom: i got some pushback on the dalio comments. pooja pushing against that, saying they will have to slow things down. lisa: i thought you were going to pushback from bit dog eating your canary. we will talk about that in the opening with kevin holt over at invesco. how much we have priced in, to me, is one of the key questions. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. president biden has reiterated that a u.s. recession is not am inevitable. he spoke to reporters after a
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conversation with larry summers. summers says this is a significant chance that you boulevard itself battling stagflation. in china, the coronavirus infection is spreading to the south coast. it has triggered testing and a lockdown of some neighborhoods. the european union's 27 members will formally grant ukraine candidacy status later this week, a highly symbolic step on the path to becoming an eu member. they will discuss the membership bid this week. guggenheim will formally merge with polstar on thursday. the transaction will raise at least $850 million in gross proceeds. elon musk says there are few unresolved matters regarding his acquisition of twitter. he told john micklethwait there
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is the question of whether the debt portion of the deal comes together, and then whether shareholders vote in favor. musk is still awaiting a resolution on the matter of how many bots are on the platform. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.
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become a problem for the boj and they will give up on the zero policy rate. if you go above 140, the boj will have to change policy, and the first thing will be the yield curve policy. tom: it is what we try to do each and every day on bloomberg surveillance. when news breaks, we can go worldwide to doha, qatar economic forum, nouriel roubini modeling out 140 weak yen. someone who has helped us out so much over the years. helping out with the visual, kriti gupta on weak yen. >> we are already at 136, the highest level for dollar-yen going back to 9098 when we had that coordinated currency intervention. the u.s., europe was in on it.
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do we see that coordinated action again? you are looking at a $4 trillion daily turnover in markets. you are also looking at a race to a strong currency payment that brings me to my chart of the day. that is what is making traders extremely nervous. implied volatility for dollar-yen. it is a straight shot up when you look at the regression from the december low to where we are now. it is really the rate of change that matters. bond options seeing their worst auction for the five-years since march 2020. the fear is the jgb market will break. much further can the currency handle? tom: thank you so much. head of currency strategy at round brothers harriman,
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definitive international relations. win thin joins us now on what it means for tokyo. i am going to go back to a september 1992 where george sorrows made history with the breaking of the bank of england. who, right now, is trying to break the bank of japan? win: thanks for having me, always a pleasure. i do admit i like this 8:45 slot more than 6:45, by the way. call me anytime. it is interesting. the market is testing the bank of japan yield curve control, as opposed to currency. currency is a byproduct of this whole system, but we have been hearing reports by bloomberg and other financial quarters, that a lot of hedge funds are going
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short on the assumption that the bank of japan cannot hold yield curve control. to me, i think they can sustain this. my last appearance a week or so ago, if there are dislocations in the jgb market, speculators get dislocated, the bank of japan will accept that. right now they have been getting things that they have been trying to get, weak yen and higher inflation. they don't want to pull the plug early. any sort of reversal on this easy monetary policy, you can see the dollar-yen fall 20 figures. it is anyone's guess, but that is the fear from japanese policymakers, why they are maintaining current policy. kailey: if we don't see a policy shift from the bank of japan or other intervention, is there a path to a stronger yen in an alternate scenario? win: until and unless they
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change their monetary policy stance, it is a one-way bet. i keep on bringing this up, but robert's work in the 1960's on the exchange rate, he called it the impossible trinity. the company cannot have open capital flows, independent monetary policy, and target the exchange rate. as long as they run this monetary policy divergence, that is the major driver across most fx markets, particularly here in dollar-yen. they had a chance last friday to make a statement, step back, but they doubled down and went all in on this. they cannot be surprise that the yen is stronger here. this is a natural byproduct of their easy money policy. kailey: how is beijing likely to look at this weaker yen? win: it is interesting that you
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bring it up. monetary divergence is another story with bank of japan. they are actually in easing mode. the bank of japan is in easing mode but staying steady. to me that is another signal for dollar-yen to go higher, as well. natural byproduct, something that we will continue to see. tom: we are out of time but we need you back here to discuss this. looking for continued weakness in yen. dr. thin is with brown brothers harriman. i have an million things to about but i have to pitch to the crypto show. is matt miller going to be with you? kailey: 1:00 eastern time, we have a lot to discuss today. tom: do we know about it went down this weekend? it is not like kellogg that goes up or down because there was a press release.
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was there a press release that moved bit dog down? kailey: historically it's been so volatile, but a lot of the conversation was this was forced selling taking place. you saw what happened with the collapse of terra ust, celsius withdrawn holdings, money no longer being free. all of that because a lot of selling pressure. the question is, the rebound we are seeing over the last couple of days, will that stick around? tom: how are the people rationalizing this? those that are three weeks out of school and have made more money than any of us have made in their lifetime, their models are limit later this morning. kailey: the crypto billionaires --
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jay-z is on crypto as well. he and jack dorsey are bringing financial education about bitcoin to certain housing projects. that financial literacy conversation is something entirely different. to your point, a lot of evangelists buying in the space. they say to stay faithful. tom: tell me that ed sheeran is not in crypto. kailey: that i don't know, you should ask him about it. tom: this is a one hour program? kailey: only 30 minutes, but if you want to talk to management about it and extend it, i would be an advocate. tom: i watched the move to 17ish this weekend like i do lehman brothers or bear stearns. every tick was fascinating. bitdog -- i call it tulip coin.
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20084 on bitcoin. please stay with us. an eventful day. japanese yen weakness.
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lisa: we have an optimistic green town ahead of the oh and. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get started for the start of u.s.
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starting -- u.s. trading. this is the countdown to the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with recession calls gaining momentum. >>
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