>> from the financial centers of the world, this is "bloomberg markets," with alix steel and guy johnson. alix: it's 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day and here are the top market stories we are following for you at this hour. questioning the rebound, struck -- stocks the bear markets. g7 leaders are set to announce an effort to cap prices on russian oil with a commitment to

support ukraine for as long as it takes and zelinski says he wants the war over by the end of the year. the quake over the supreme court overturning of roe v. wade continuing as a poll shows a majority of americans disapprove of the decision. we are awaiting more decisions from the court today. from new york, i'm kailey leinz with my cohost in london, dani burger. it's a new week and it doesn't look like the rally is going to last into it. dani: you and i were both questioning the staying power of this rally. as its inflation and not recession the becomes the worry again. that is the question. -- kailey: that is the question and we are getting some economic data at the moment with pending home sales crossing the wire and it does look like they sell --

fell 12% from the previous year. so you are seeing higher mortgage rates in a big way. dani: month over month a slight rise with the estimate down 4%. as we watched the rally that is struggling to hold on, turning to the question of the day it is can the rally continue into the second half of this year? we are of course getting to the end of that first quarter just a few days away. let's bring in abigail doolittle and romaine bostick to discuss. abigail i want to start with you because i have seen some commentary saying that the rally at the end of the week was technical and windowdressing, russell balancing, did you see signs of that? abigail: there are signs of a sustained rally technically, as it's priced. mike wilson at morgan stanley is

talking about it and had a great call on the bear market talking about the idea that we could see a multiweek balance and i believe that call is based on fibonacci levels, which i do less work around but when i do the chart using simplistic techniques it goes to the same levels with a gap to be filled towards that 200 day moving average. the interesting thing, though, i know that mike wilson and others are talking about a week or two weeks but there are some signs here that it could be much longer, one of these really tricky bear market rallies that goes on for weeks and weeks and weeks and maybe even a couple of months, sucker punching people into thinking that the bear market is over and i think there's a 20% chance for that but more likely there is more downside. dani: i can see romain overhear avidly nodding his head. romaine: a little bit of a nod, a little bit of a shake. kailey: head movement. romaine: head movement, yeah, on

those technical levels i think we are where we thought we would be as mike wilson talked about in the notes that he was referencing but when you start to look at fundamentals and on top of that you look at the moves we have been seeing in the yield space it makes sense as to why the rally is occurring but it is also suggesting and depending on what you are betting on, economic oath, moderation and inflation, stronger labor market? corporate fundamentals? those things are all entwined and depending on what you are focusing on the most, it could be a big determinant of whether you think the market is headed for a sustained rally or another downturn. dani: one head scratcher for me, if we focus on a recession, why would stocks rally? romaine: the general idea is that if the fed pulls back on the tightening, with economic conditions that

are not favorable enough that the fed doesn't think that the economy can stand on its own in the face of additional rate hikes, it takes them off the table and pushes down in theory treasury yields and if you are a fundamental investor the discount rate gets smaller in theory and then you have a higher valuation in the market. in theory, in theory a lot of things. but in practice sometimes it's something else. in practice looking at the market and we look at signs for capitulation and a real catharsis, what was noticeably absent and really absent was a lack of a spike in volatilities with things being relatively orderly and i wonder what you make of that. abigail: that's right, for true capitulation you need a selloff with nasdaq buying. last week solid but not the kind of buying i can remember other capitulation moments that come to mind. do your point we haven't had a

higher high on the vix for many months, telling you that the options investors are worried and romaine makes a great point with these two factors of inflation and recession where we might be looking at a time for the next couple of weeks, who knows how many, where they balance each other out and neither takes too much of the center stage so that investors can feel more confident. romaine: as some of you know, abigail appears on my highly rated afternoon program where we talk about the call ratio and whether investors are purchasing protection and why not. something bearish showing us that the market could go up? abigail: i don't thing we have many answers to that, is a bit of a mystery. looking at the sku index, the panic index outside the money put, it's outside a record low

that tends to lead the market and it has been at a record high prior to the selloff, so if it rebounds it could tell you that this smart early money they are starting to get, they are more worried with something coming to mind in the upcoming earnings season being a number of strategists who think it could be a bit of a disaster and i'm wondering if the expectations are too much in the basement for this earnings season. that because the expectations are so low that may be companies could do ok for this earnings season. but i think there are some signs right now that suggest the markets could have a little bit of space to climb in the relative near term. kailey: romaine offering a good market insight, always be plugging. abigail: shamelessly so. romaine: and i like this, it's up in a great show even without guy and alex and did you know that we might be hosting the boston pops together?

another plug. fourth of july here in the united states. [laughter] >> i only wish i had a cool project of my own to plug. alas, i do not. but let me give a plug here for kailey, who has her crypto show tomorrow. everyone look forward to that. looking at ripped oak, it's down 3% that it is not as chaotic as it has been. can we look to that market and say look, perhaps we got to that situation but not as volatile as it was in the last weekend? romaine: there is certainly a case to be made for that. a proverbial shaking out, certainly moving to the sidelines. at least in the minds of a lot of the crypto faithful, particularly the more legitimate folks out there they see it as a positive sign for them and who knows what the next leg is going to be. looking at the correlations across there with the crypto world and what you see in stocks and bonds, those correlations

are still relatively high based on historical averages and i would think you would want to see them lower before you get more comfortable that my general sense based on the people that we talk to on the markets close, they seem to think it's headed in the right direction. >> if there is any takeaway is that all the shows here on bloomberg television are great, stay tuned all day long. if you want to get back to that breaking data on pending home sales, on the year on year basis we are down 12% but interestingly for the month on month they had been higher by 7/10 of 1% and it was expected to be down by 4%. so interesting to think about the implications of that as consumer and would be home buyers are faced with higher rates. more on the question of the day with mark mccormick, the global head of exit -- fx strategy, joining us and whether or not there is room for the rally to

continue in equities. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the risks of a downturn are increasing and probably we are looking at the end of this year where the only silver lining we can point to is we don't yet see the scope for a deep or

prolonged downturn. >> it could be a significant slowdown. we are already seeing financial conditions tightening around the world, particularly in the u.s. and i'm very concerned. >> we have raised the estimate probability of a recession in the u.s. to be about a 50% chance, like a flip of a coin. i think that all of those factors will mean a clear downturn. >> the war between russia and ukraine could get worse and we don't know what's going to happen between israel and iran and in asia and on the issue of taiwan, there's a geopolitical risk that i'm worried about. >> risks that russia and ukraine , things could intensify after the risk and putting further upward pressure on prices and making the job of the fed more difficult. >> the big stretch with europe

on the periphery is not only the recession overall, but that are complicated further. kailey: those were our guests weighing in on their expectations for the second half of the year. russian of the day with a different focus, can the rally continue into the second half? we talked about it already with rallies, but what about the dollar? joining us now is mark mccormick. what's your answer? mark: great question and the one thing i would characterize is that it won't be smooth. we do think at the end of the year the dollar will be lower than now but it will have to get stronger again before we get to that point. what's very critical is what everyone is focusing on is the equity markets, rate, and commodities. the top and bloomberg commodity index has a pullback in oil prices that has been good for the weak dollar story and the peak of inflation for people

trying to feel it out where it has helped to support risk assets in general but in the next couple of months we will need higher rate with a stronger dollar and we probably have not seen the top and the confirmation on inflation that will start moving lower. i would again characterize it at the end of the year as being better than where we are currently but we still probably have one more peek through the next couple of months. dani: one thing that caught my eye was you talked about excessive fed tightening turning on the u.s. dollar. what do you mean by that? mark: i think it's important because the broad balance of payment in the current account is one of the only things that hasn't been discussed at. what we are trying to do is look at correlation on a real-time basis in how it impacts a flow over time but the current account deficit is above 4% again and that is a very important threshold not because of the level but because it

relies on the kindness of strangers, foreigners to come in and purchase u.s. assets and what's happening now with the market heavy risk is investors are essentially pulling out of equities without repatriating the capital loan, leaving it in dollars and cash and the fed has kind of broken the equity market and tightened financial conditions, one of the conditions that has kept the dollar overvalued. essentially the broad balance of payments has deteriorated worse than the eurozone, worse than japan. what the u.s. still needs is a dollar that's overvalued and for it to remain at these levels it's going to need more investment in the equity or corporate bond space and that is where i think the dollar gets weaker over the long term, the alternative to u.s. equities in the next six months to 12 months. kailey: you mentioned japan, the yen seems to have found a comfortable spot and i'm

wondering, we talked so much about the odds of a policy turn from the bank of japan. if they can withstand it this week. what about the alternate route to yen strength? mark: that will come from two mechanisms, with treasuries and oil prices lower. data surprises missing, that's the stronger yen along with the dollar for the alternative safe haven. dollar-yen trading at 132 right now, it's a short-term barometer on where to think these correlations lineup and the other side is really the doj where you kind of, as you talked about in the prior segment, if we are going to avoid global recession the yen will be week from the external side and what matters is that as the global economy is holding on there and things are ok you will see

inflation is continuing to rise in japan. worse on policy. probably not happening this summer, more likely in the fall. >> curve controlled in terms of policy? >> it's basically a shift towards normalization around yield curve control. it is allowing gdp yields to reconnect with higher yields in the rest of the world, that would be the most important policy implication yet. >> what would be the global in -- global implication of that abandonment? mark: kind of like what we see in other countries, yields are rising and pulling things higher over the worst of the year, the doj essentially allowing global rates to rise as well, that would be the immediate implication for bonds having a broader impact on global markets. that would be the broader impact. kailey: and of course we like to

pick on the bank of japan, last man standing, only it's not, in china the pboc is actively easing and i wonder how you view their role into fx more broadly. mark: yet and it's a great point because i think japan is focused on having a wider output gap with an implementation around perspectives on the output gap. but it doesn't mean that they are not going to move. it just means they aren't moving as fast as the market would like where we are inevitably going to see a ticket from the doj, it's just a matter of timing. quite interesting around the world, it there are still little pockets of reflation that are hard to discover but you have got to look through the looking glass a little bit. if you look at it there's a little bit of reflation with a lot of stagflation and something that looks like deflation with growth weakening and that's where china is at where the

thing that's interesting is 2023. the atlanta fed and gdp are basically at zero where we are expecting the euro zone in the second half of this year. predications are easing. the credit impulse is rising in china and if you are looking at one of the last three months, there's a surplus with, and this is interesting in the global recession, there are some offsets here, meaning the global economy should not go into a recession next year and i think that china is one of the important driving factors. asian linked currencies can outperform relative to the dollar index. dani: mark mccormick, walking us

everything from dollar to yen. ahead of the invasion, live next, ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪

kailey: g7 leaders discussing the viability of a price cap on russian oil. there has been a debate over potential oil caps with prices in the constituents for the g7 and how is that feeding into the debates that you are hearing over there? >> they are really

trying to balance the issues by making sure they keep the pressure on russia and continue to support ukraine while protecting their own economies from some of these inflationary pressures, like higher oil and higher gas that home. we know it is a huge issue in the united states but it is also up asher issue across europe, canada, japan as well. that's almost where the idea of the oil rice cap on russian oil stems from but we should be clear, i have focused on a number of individuals talking about this from a number of countries in what we are hearing is that basically there isn't going to be a deal on an oil price cap today, but what they will announce is that they are in agreement to keep the idea alive and keep the discussions happening. there has never been a price cap like this before. this would be very different and

it involves a ton of logistics between suppliers, insurance companies, shipping. the bottom line is that what they would like to do is make sure they can keep the crude on the market and make sure that russia is not benefiting from the sky high prices that we have right now. dani: a deal to talk about a potential deal down the road. meanwhile we know that volodymyr zelenskyy address leaders today. what was his ask? >> to just continue support and we have already seen that language in the statement from the g7. they said that as long as it's needed, basically whatever it takes, indefinitely we will be by your side. this means humanitarian, financial, diplomatic and defense. the biden administration will be announcing antimissile defense systems. now it is a very sensitive moment when these meter -- leaders met yesterday as there

had been a number of missile strikes yesterday on apartment block and a lot of the fighting, around the east and south of ukraine. prior to going to kyiv we heard from the mayor there who said there was just more of that campaign to threaten that community. more of it placed upon russia, bans on gold, -- cole that's critically important for the export of russia. and happening physically in the market. dani: yeah classified as a symbolic move. thank you so much. coming up we shift the forecasts from foreign affairs back to politics. and the implications of last week's overturning of roe v. wade by the supreme court.

the chief u.s. investment strategy policy analyst will discuss it with us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation.

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>> we are an hour into the u.s. trading session on this monday. the new we, not starting off on a great note. abigail doolittle is tracking the move. we have lost quite a lot of steam. >> there is some softness on the morning data. s&p down 3/10 of 1%. nasdaq down 8/10 of 1%. volume is way down, down 10% below the 20 day moving average. this could have something to do with the rebalancing. in the premarket, we were both lower and higher. now, we are lower on the open. let's see if that can turn. bitcoin, down 3.4%.

it seems like there is a capitulation bottom happening. if it does not take place soon, it will be interesting to see what takes shape with bitcoin. the bloomberg dollar index down ever so slightly. if we flip the boards, we will see that the vix is interesting. over the last year, you have a series of higher lows. that tells you volatility is rising as you can see. what makes this so interesting, especially giving the -- given the stock trade we have had, the bear market with the s&p 500, a set of lower highs. that tells you we haven't seen the kinds of capitulation folks wanted to see in volatility. it does seem like the vix is more likely to go back below 20 and stay in that range and make a super spike later this year. let's see. as for the last week of the month for the quarter, let's take a look at what is happening, going back. when we have had terrible quarters, it is so interesting.

in the fourth quarter of two thousand eight, the s&p 500, down 23%. the last week, up 4%. we see a similar pattern with the first quarter of 2020. down 20%, up 5.6%. we are, toward the end of the second quarter of 2020 two. not a great quarter. down about 14%. up 3.1% last week, the full last week. i'm not sure how that is calculated. it does not match exactly. the point is we are on a strong ending for a pretty difficult second quarter. dani: a great illustration there of potential bear market rallies. thanks so much, bloomberg's abigail doolittle. from stocks to the supreme court, the decision on friday to overturn roe v. wade could have major implications in the upcoming midterms. joining us is greg valliere. greg, we are coming off a weekend of a lot of protests, a lot of outspoken policymakers who care about this issue. as you know, perhaps not as much

from conservative lawmakers. what does this mean for the midterms? greg: i think it could mean a lot. first of all, i talked to republicans on friday. in public, they were euphoric about the ruling. in private, it was a different story entirely. i think they had been hoping for a landslide on november 3. i think it is a little less likely. the publicans will get five seats in the house. they might get 15 or even 20. but not 30 or 40, which they were hoping for in the last few days. the big story is the senate. which is tied 50-50. there is a chance certain states may not go to the republicans. wisconsin, pennsylvania, new hampshire. if that is true, there is a chance the democrats could win the senate by a seat. and the supreme court ruling will be a big factor, i think. dani: of course, greg, when we think about the supreme court

rulings, roe v. wade was the one we had all been waiting for. that was not the only noteworthy decision out of the court. you had the decision surrounding second minute rights and the right to concealed carry in new york state, where i am. i am wondering more broadly, this is clearly a conservative tilting court. the third branch of government, not one that is elected. is there a conversation happening in washington about reforms to the court, changes to the court? greg: there is talk about it but i can't see them going from nine judges to 11. i can't see them making it through congress unless you change the senate filibuster rule, and that looks quite unlikely. i thought the most chilling thing, example of how the court has changed came from clarence thomas, who said we made next look at gay-rights, contraceptives, we might look at abortion pills. there is now a chilling list of other things that they may propose over the next couple of

months. most republicans seeking office in november would prefer not to go there. dani: to that point, greg, is there a sense this court has taken things a bridge too far? could we see more pushback on the hill, even from those who lean in the more conservative action? greg: yes and that is the democrats great hope. they did not have a lot to brag about, high urban crime and illegal immigration. the democrats were desperate for an issue and this is an issue that can drive turnout in places like wisconsin and pennsylvania and maybe be a game changer. dani: greg, you just described a scenario where there was not a lot of room for course correction in terms of expanding the quarter. anything like that. is there not a sense among democratic voters who have been told election after election that roe v. wade was on the ballot and they did show up and nothing happened? is there not this feeling that

might in turn suppress voters because nothing seems like it is able to change this? greg: yeah, i do think the democrats base now has a reason, clearly, to be motivated. and that is what's next? what next comes from the supreme court? we might get an environmental ruling in the next few days that would be viewed very harshly by the green community. there are a lot of issues here. at the end of the day, why i can't expect the house to flip, at the end of the day, the main issue continues to be gasoline and food. as long as the prices stay elevated, republicans can take the house. i think the senate is now in play. dani: as we talk about whether this changes any minds or galvanizes groups of voters, it strikes me that those who will likely be most affected are minority committees, community's of color, groups that traditionally also have not been entirely left out of the

electoral process but have found more barriers to that. and there has been legislation in certain states in which it makes voting potentially more difficult for those groups. i'm wondering how that affects your thinking. >> it does affect my thinking. that is why i think the house will flip. we will have to watch the next three to four months. are there going to be restrictions on traveling across the state borders for abortion? will there be tough restrictions on the abortion pill? will we talk about curving gay-rights? if some of these things materialize, that i think will get people motivated. dani: i guess if i could rephrase my question, are these marginalized groups not those who are also finding it more difficult to vote and does that impact how much it actually changes the calculus? greg: i do. i think there are obstacles to getting a clear majority. i would say that things have changed in the last two to three

days. dani: so, you know, one of these things in terms of changing, you're talking about justice thomas perhaps overplaying his hand when he talks about things like gay-rights and contraceptive access as well. do you think that is a standalone opinion? how seriously should we be taking that, given that it was a con current opinion and not in the majority? greg: i think they can get five votes for anything so, no, it is something to be concerned about. one thing i found intriguing is that a lot of democrats are disappointed in joe biden, thinking he has not been aggressive on this issue. admittedly, his plate is really full right now. but i think there is a feeling biden should have been more aggressive on things like the filibuster. dani: yeah, and whether or not he would make it so that you didn't need 60 votes in the senate to get certain measures through. finally, greg, you talk about how the present -- president has his plate full. you talk about issues, including

inflation, which affects every american, not just women or marginalized communities. how much do these issues affect what is happening in the ballot box more so than -- which has kept the presidents numbers down for so long? greg: history would show you will see a big backlash against this administration. could prices come down? it is possible by late summer and early fall. i think attitudes have hardened. the economic issue will be a major negative for this administration. >> greg valliere, thank you so much for joining us. great to get your thoughts. he thinks the senate could stay democratic even this decision on roe v. wade being overturned. coming up, something else greg mentioned is food security. nearly 90% of u.s. food production is thanks to small and midsized family farms, the

rising input costs are putting immense pressure on it. we will discuss what needs to be done with don -- jon voight jr., president of the national black farmers association, next. this is bloomberg. -- john boyd jr., president of the national black farmers association, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg markets. i am a two. -- medical group to -- our group >> keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, i am rit ika gupta. -- it is the same system the u.s. uses to protect airspace. ukraine can knock down only a fraction of the missiles that russia launches. it is the first ever criminal

conviction of a swiss bank. credit suisse is convicted of failing to prevent money laundering by a bulgarian cocaine trafficker. switzerland's top criminal court find them $2.1 million. committees hit headwinds after dominating supply. bloomberg's index -- in a new note, goldman-s ls say they are going down but not falling. global news 24 hours a day, on the air, on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rich could group to -- our ritika gupta. greg: we are joined -- kailey: we are joined by jon voight jr.. -- john boyd jr.

he is joining, from virginia where danny and i are from. fuel costs, labor shortages, what challenge is greatest in your mind? john: all of the challenges our greatest right now. we have the high cost of diesel fuel. i have been farming for 35 years and i never experienced paying six dollars for a gallon of diesel fuel. last year, i was paying $200 for a ton of trouble 17 fertilizer. this year, i am paying $1200 a ton for the same amount of fertilizer. all of these are upfront costs. truckers are hurting as well. $1200 to fill up a tractor-trailer in this country. we are facing inflation. consumers, the american people

will feel the pinch. the three major commodities, corn, wheat and soybeans, all most everything you pick up has one of those three commodities in it. farmers have reached to the biden administration to provide emergency loans. >> what has the response been? did the biden administration seem responsive to that? john: it has not been a good response. the president met in -- was supposed to be in july, that meeting has not happened. i need a farm operating loan. we need emergency funding right now and we need stronger markets in place. we are paying for all of these upfront costs. when am i going -- what am i going to sell my commodity for

in october? corn, wheat and soybeans are all commodity driven props. we need more help from the biden administration. and we understand that he is busy with the war and all these other issues. but, america's farmers are hurting. and we need help and we need it right now. john: john, if that help doesn't come, it won't just be the farmers that are hurting but the nation, broadly, if there is a food shortage. how bad could that food shortage be? john: you saw the issue with the baby formula and all these other things. when we go to the grocery store, you will see more empty food shells. in the commodities that we have been so welcome to in this country won't be available like a has-been been for the past 50 years in the united states. we take food for granted in this country. we raise food so the american consumer, the everyday mom and

pop, the single mother who is struggling, will go into supermarkets and she will feel the pinch of the high cost of food. because we are not helping farmers and two, we have a region of the country in this world which is at war, russia and ukraine, where fertilizing comes from. they need help. we provided them with $50 billion in aid but we did not do anything to provide infrastructure for america's farmers. the top 10 banks did not help us and the top 10 corporations such as cargill and john deere, instead of price gouging, they need to circle back and invest in america's farmers. dani: yes, absolutely. the troubles in europe and ukraine, absolutely adding to higher prices as that source of wheat comes off the map. we have a viewer writing in saying do you think it is worth the cost increase to protect ukraine? what are your feelings on that? john: yes, but you also have to

take care of home. take care of the american people. in this case, black farmers, we have been waiting for $5 billion in debt relief that we did not get. and the usda is reporting these farmers as delinquent. they could not get farm operating loans. these are things the biden administration can help me fix. right now, i haven't been able to provide the real answers to black farmers. and it's going to lead to more land loss. that is something that is problematic for black and other farmers of color. there are things this administration can do right now. my message is to the biden administration, don't ignore your base. take care of home and take care of the people. especially those who worked hard to help elect you. don't ignore them in their time of need but do what you are saying you are going to do. he said he would have a meeting with myself and the national

black farmers association and that meeting has not happen. i am calling on the president to come to the table right now in our greatest time of need. john: if and when that meeting does happen, we would love to get you back on to discuss that. -- kailey: if and when that meeting does happen, we would love to get you back on to discuss that. as we talk about different communities, i wonder how you view the supreme court decision on friday, the overturning of roe v. wade and how that might affect black amenity and -- black community? john: i think it is awful. we continue to go back in time in this country on voting rights and abortion. they will be black women who will take the chance and have a high risk abortion. these are things that are going to affect the black community. i think it was the wrong decision by the supreme court. these are elderly men who are making decisions on what women can do with their body.

it was the wrong thing at the wrong time in history to do. we have to find a way to address it in this country. i know it goes back to the states. to me, it was just an awful, awful decision. that is why people have to come out to vote. it is important to vote so we can put the right people have the right voice and the right interests for america and help put them on the supreme court, so that these decisions will happen in the future. we have to vote, we have to organize and we have to get the message out that this is not what the american people want. dani: thank you so much for joining us. john boyd jr., national black farmers association president. thank you for joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> -- is one of a handful of

ceos in the u.s. she will soon be joining greystone as ceo. she spoke with scarlet fu about the biggest risk she will need to manage when she takes on this role in september. take a listen. >> for institutions as well as retail investors, it is important to focus on cash flow, strong financial position, liquidity is not the same a solvency. we know that from past history. when we look at the real estate, it is a cyclical business. there are a lot of great tailwinds at the same time. there have been supply constraints, millennials being first time homebuyers and gen z right behind. an extremely tight labor market, still. and we are seeing a much healthier household balance sheet. when there is uncertain times and volatility in the markets like there is right now in the real estate market, a lot of the

competent competitors go hot or cold. this is a great time for a financial organization like greystone, in a strong financial position, to stay warm in the market. and to be able to serve our clients in good times and bad times. that leads to grabbing market shares. the real estate market is presenting a great opportunity right now. dani: the greystone ceo, speaking with bloomberg's scarlet fu. 30 minutes to go until the close of european trading. we are looking at your stock 60 -- euro stock 60, at a high. i will take you over here. you are looking at german 10 year yields. those are up nearly 10 basis points. we get a handful of flash

inflationary readings. it is set to culminate at the end of the week where we get an 8.5% reading on inflation for the euros. it is hard to see how equities can continue to rally if not only are you worried about inflation but we know this toxic mixture of recession has come in as well. one thing that has been able to sustain this rally is the euro. the euro versus the dollar, above 1.05, nearly at 1.06. of 4/10 of 1%. it goes back to the inflationary story. canada dashcam the ecb afford to pause -- can the ecb afford to pause rate hiking? we have sentra, madame lagarde will speak. coming up on the european close, we will return to our question of the day and look ahead to the second half of the year. that is with estee dweck, flow bank cio. that is next.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is monday, the 27th of june, yields and oil prices move higher. the countdown to the close starts right now. announcer: the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets, european close. with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ dani: dani burger here in london, kailey leinz in new york, filling in for a guy and alix steel. the close in europe about 30