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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  July 6, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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dani: this is bloomberg daybreak
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here. i'm dani burger in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: embattled u.k. prime minister names a new chancellor. parity watch, the euro hits its lowest level in 20 years with gas shortages and oil threatening economic activity on the continent. plus the white house is said to be pressuring chip equipment maker smr to cut sales to china. president biden reportedly sees pushback on the potential lifting of terraced beijing. good morning danny. an island that would call a stage of -- in the united kingdom. in britain, they called a crisis. this is the prime minister -- the weight, is it done?
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dani: they have asked space was already under immense stress -- the affects space was already under immense stress. it is only the second time both euro and oil have fallen by more than 1.5%. a lot of focus on the energy crisis in europe. let me take you into the equity market. yesterday, european stocks fell to the lowest since january 2021. it exemplifies this reluctance to best in the global deterioration of the market. the u.s. was able to eke out a slight game. a strong bounce back from europe stocks. we are struggling to continue to have a sort of gains when it comes to asia or s&p 500 futures, down about .2%. i did want to fight the euro. yesterday falling to its lowest in 20 years. this is a nonlinear movement. the type of moves normally
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expect when the ecb make some decision. it really was this risk off this bid for the dollar driving the euro. manus: i think it is the differential between the bed and the ecb continues to hunker that euro toward the parity level. these markets could offer genuine value. we could debate that in a moment. i've got a 19 basics .2 into your bonds yesterday. it was with saw -- 19 basis point hike. the bonds are beginning to mitigate risk. began to behave the way they're supposed to be. all advances back from a near 8% implosion. you've overshot it is premature to succumb to concerns about a global recession.
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over sought by this drop of a percent yesterday. will be -- will there be more ministerial resignation? popper is that a 19 month low. you are looking -- copper is that a 19 month low. getting crushed in. dani: let's get to our other top stories. we are going to start off with lindsay, standing by at number 10, which just had its most dramatic night of internal politics in recent memory. manus: we talked to the energy market in the energy. dani: let's start with the brink. as u.k. prime minister fights for his political survival. government rocked by the reservations -- resignations of
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the health secretary, quitting over elevation -- revelations that johnson lied. >> it was a mistake. i apologize for it. in hindsight, it was the wrong thing to do. it's been badly affected by it. i want to make clear that there was no place in this government for anybody who is predatory or abuses their position of power. dani: let's get to downing street where lizzie barton is standing by. a very dramatic day, resignations, new appointments, walk us through all of it. >> you can feel the quiet coming out downing street this morning. johnson is on the brink. is on the front page of the national newspapers this morning. that is after last night he lost
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two of his most senior team. the health secretary shortly followed by the chancellor. in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis in the u.k.. i could not be a worse time to lose your number two in government. the language was about integrity, it was about them not being able to defend in public anymore what they knew or didn't know about the mp and his sexual misconduct coming into question. johnson has come back
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with an reshuffle last night. the former education secretary, now the chancellor. in the former chief of staff now taking the health job. this pressure has finished off boris johnson's predecessors in the past. as the daily mail refers to his nickname, the grease piglet, it doesn't look like boris johnson is going to resign even after this. manus: grease piglet, it takes a lot to get them out. here it is. it is a question, he won the challenge to his leadership a few weeks ago with 59% of the book and the party. technically he can't be challenged again, unless they change the rules. what is the risk, the 1922 committee changes the rules? >> this committee is having its elections next week. there is a chance it will be dominated by mps who favor changing the rules, which means there could be another vote sooner. there is the argument that if the rules don't -- a vote of no-confidence could happen more often than once a year, future prime ministers will constantly be on the brink. johnson will be pointing to his
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majority in 2019, claiming even if he were replaced as leader, the new person would have even less of a mandate that he has. so far, other cabinet ministers, trust the foreign secretary, princi patel have all come out defending boris johnson. manus: let's see if there are more injurious resignations walking up the street today. thank you very much. we will see throughout programming later in the show. there's a new program in shanghai, it may be a boom for the oil market. does the latest market asia moose. with got equities under pressure, bond markets, we get to juliette saly in singapore. >> as you note, more likely to
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pick up our cases. the concern is what are we going to see in china, could be potential for the lockdowns? that is weighing, the same time goldman sachs sing the demands rebound in the oil market is hussein beijing is restrictions in last month or so, they are sitting outside demand in the second half. stocks very much on recessionary fears. you're looking at that weakness in the metals space. they are back at december levels. in the market coming under pressure, csi 300 down by 1.5%. other stories we are following is this potential news about the u.s. pushing for asml to be banned from checking -- selling chipmaker technology to china. this is going to galvanize more support for the state backed names. thanks so much.
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dani: let's continue with this commodity story. trading at $100 per barrel. goldman sachs sing at his more than 80% has been overdone. our energy reporter joins us from singapore. stephen's of these recessionary fears filtering throughout markets, not just oil is about energy as well. you have bowman saying it is -- goldman saying it is overdone, saying it could go to hundred and 10 barrels -- dollars next year? >> it is bank versus bank when they are looking at two timelines for oil. that the bears looking at the fact there is a recession potentially on the way later this year. that will curb demand for oil across many markets and bring prices lower. at the same time, as goldman sachs notes, the situation right now is tight. the market isn't fixed. there's not a lot of supply there.
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demand is growing as countries continue to consume. those are the two factors. in the middle is china, which is potentially opening back up from covid restrictions. at the same time, there is a back-and-forth there. a lot of uncertainty in the market. a lot of analysts are split. manus: they sure are. the oil market leaned into the recession narrative yesterday. more pressure. thank you. let's take a quick marker on some of the issues for markets today. and just under an hour is that we are going to get the german factory orders. a lot of pressure from the energy complex on the manufacturing sector. it :00 london time, asia's rate decision, set to raise its policy rate at least 25 basis points. dani: then we go to your home
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country, ireland's unemployment rate to 11:00 u.k. time. we are going to have a number of u.s. data points that will include mortgage applications, job openings and later in the days of the fc one minutes from june. manus: we're going to debate that recession risk. coming up on the show, politics, the huge resignations in the united kingdom, we discussed the silver linings in the markets. where are they? right here on bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it's "bloomberg markets: .
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they don't, we've got tough markets. we are going to look at g20. you've got copper trading by two standard deviations. 19 month low. aluminum under pressure. down over 6%. metals and commodities all fervently in the -- in the belief there we are already in a recession. dani: may i add that is the biggest form of flattery, plagiarism there. i do think that will filter through and what we saw in fx yesterday, the europe tumbling to its lowest in 20 years. the second time, goal, oil and metal fell by 1.5%. all going into this recessionary fear. manus: let's bring in our guest.
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macro strategist at brown shipley. thank you for being with us. looking at the map this morning, copper, aluminum, steel, are the commodity markets now decided we are in a recession, it is just a question of debating the depth? daniele: yes. important question. we have seen a generalized loss of momentum in economic activity across the western world. china is different. in the commodity markets are reflecting this. we've seen this for some time. we've seen also in oil, falling to 100 dollars. it is certainly an increase in the recession fears around the world. commodity markets -- i believe
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in the second half so we will see more divergence in economic trajectories. within the west, the u.s., and europe and china eventually rebounding. dani: what we saw in the euro, the interest-rate differential punishing it, a 20 year low. it feels like a non-linear move. we didn't have a ecb headlines. i would just a no man's land until parity at this moment? daniele: yes, i think we could be approaching parity. even though we didn't have potential catalyst yesterday, europe compared to the u.s. are very different. this is because the potential trigger for recession in the u.s. is much more visible to control. it could be russian imports stopping gas supplies, they are running low. just the limited scope to
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question that kind of shop. in the u.s., the loss of momentum, even though it is not that different, if you look at high-frequency data, the loss of momentum is the tightening and financial conditions. so the fed, after inflation is more under control can slow the tightening. can even -- markets are beginning to rise at some point next year. manus: the market is pulling forward, not just the terminal rate, but when that might be. it is interesting to see european equity futures this morning, you see this catastrophe taking place in the commodity complex. aluminum down nearly 4%, copper down nearly 5.5%. shanghai might close down again. the commodity complex is dropping.
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you say a rebound will come in china, recession risk will diminish and china, that will support chinese equities. yesterday our guest told us, i can live without china equities, there's too much risk. why are you more eight emboldened toward china? -- why are you more emboldened toward china? daniele: this is very imperfect -- important. we diverge, the probability is much higher in europe. in the u.s., although it remains lower than in europe. then you have china, i would argue it is most probably hired during the lockdown. the data is not out yet. gdp was maybe negative in china. we have already seen the beta flow getting better, the gym eyes bouncing back -- gmi
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bouncing back. the reopening, pent up demand gets released. china is lowering rates a little bit. china's increasing stimulus. dani: i also think this leads to the confusion, the complexity of trying to understand this commodity market of this oil market. take what you see in china is expected rebound, filter it through your outlook in this commodity complex, specifically oil. daniele: at the moment, we are under our forecast. the move over the last 48 hours was significant to the downside. if you look at our forecast the next 12 to 24 months, we do see a moderation in prices. it looks as if that downward
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move is more pronounced than expected. and china demand -- the risk there is the stop and go reopen which depends on their -- manus: i think we are going to get that stop and go coming through. yesterday at comments like i wouldn't trust from a political perspective, it's only a matter of time before boris goes, do you think sterling is an asset you would touch or do you need to see political change at the top for you to step into by sterling and sterling assets? daniele: based on political risk premium in the you kate, yes it is related with this political uncertainty. sterling has been one of the
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weakest currencies in the g10 the past few months, since the start of the year. we don't have positions right now in the u.k.. we are watching this. it is happening at a moment where growth is meant to be slowing sharply, there exposed to russia ukraine as much is your. dani: thanks for joining us. coming up, we continue with u.k. conversation, prime minister horst johnson fighting for his political survival. his scandal plagued government rocked by resignations of to cabinet members. one that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg
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daybreak: europe." let's get her top stories with first word news with juliette saly in singapore. >> the u.s. said to be pushing the netherlands to ban asml from selling essential chipmaking gear to china. it's an expansion of washington's campaign to curb china's rise in chip production. the proposed restriction would widen an existing moratorium on the sale of advanced chipmaking gear to china. the dutch firm is a leading maker of equipment for producing chips. boris johnson is digging in. despite the resignation of two senior cabinet ministers. he has publicly apologized for promoting a government official while knowing the mp face misconduct allegations. saying we cannot continue like this. the health secretary also resigned on tuesday. johnson has appointed a new
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chancellor. the u.s. says it rejects to return to the 2015 record. u.s. state partner spokesman described arends drew man's as extraneous. they want to remove the islamic revolutionary guard from their list of terrorist groups. donald trump's -- donald trump exited the deal in 2018. shanghai is delaying the reopening of karaoke bars. the chinese city carrying out mass covid testing following an uptick in cases. the rise in infections once again throws the covid zero policy in the spotlight. police have charged a man with seven counts of murder over the mass shooting at an independence day parade in suburban chicago. officers say the 21-year-old legally bought five weapons, including two high-powered rifles, despite authorities being called to his home twice for threats of violence and
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suicide. along with the seven killed, 30 other people were wounded in the attack. the suit brought against it by a woman in it new york subway should and should be dismissed under a federal law issuing gun makers from liability. they plan to does -- moved to dismiss the case. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus. manus: thank you very much. enjoy the karaoke. now, has political risk in the. this is the set of play. we are recasting the dark side.
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he wouldn't touch sterling at the moment on fundamental policy and political perspective. this is about when we retest the brexit. we retested the covid lois, went to the brexit lows come in? dani: exactly. saying we could plunge further, makes the past harder for the boe. traders won't know what to do with brexit negotiations and how the u.k. is going to drag itself out of this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.
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manus: this is "bloomberg
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daybreak: europe." dani: the embattled u.k. prime minister names a new chancellor and health secretary. we are live at number 10 downing street. the euro hits its lowest level in 20 years with gas shortages and oil volatility threatening economic activity on the continent. plus the white house is said to be pressuring asml to cut shares to china -- sales to china as biden sees put back -- pushback over tariffs with beijing. the commodities complex taken a back this morning. manus: some gains and bounceback's, but can they endure? we are going to go to a global market map. i will have the standard deviations if it is the last thing i do on this show. we are going to start with the cross asset map.
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bonds are beginning to behave the way they should according to mohamed el-erian. there is more sustainable value to be restored. brent manages to bounceback. wti dropped by over 8% yesterday. citigroup calling $65. cable retesting lows. you are back at pandemic lows of two years ago as the market begins to understand political risk in the pound and copper is trading at a 19 month low. dani: i do not have the standard deviations for you either, i am so sorry. your beautiful gmm screen, highly recommend you look at it. we are looking at european stocks attempting the rebound. up 1.5% in the future session.
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it did fall to its lowest point since 2021 yesterday but asia continued to deteriorate down 1%. s&p futures not doing too well, down 0.2%. the energy crisis in europe makes this really difficult. u.k. politics not making the job any easier. manus: that commodity complex, i think it is the atlanta fed data. the market has decided we are there. and negative reading the second quarter gdp. there is one major global political story. boris johnson is on the brink. the u.k. prime minister fights for political survival this morning and the government has been rocked by resignations of rishi sunak and the health secretary javid over accusations
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boris johnson lied about misconduct allegations facing a newly appointed cabin and ally. >> i apologize -- in hindsight it was the wrong thing to do. i apologize to everybody who has been badly affected by it. i want to make absolutely clear there is no place in this government for anybody who is predatory or abuses their position of power. manus: for more let's get to downing street. lizzie burden is at number 10. it has been described as the biggest they of drama in westminster since the fall apart with thatcher. talk us through what happened last night. is there a risk this prime minister heads a jaguar with a tear in his eye at the end of the day? >> there is that risk and we are all waiting for it in case. the other newspapers say boris
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johnson's nickname is the greased piglet. most people do not think he is likely to resign even after this. the night began with a stern public apology over the chris pincher affair and it was followed by the resignation of his health secretary, who do not forget was the former chancellor. that was followed by the resignation of the last chancellor, rishi sunak, in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis. there was venomous language in both of their resignation letters. it was all about integrity. neither of them felt they could publicly defend johnson's line which was constantly changing of what he knew about chris pincher. it was followed by an immediate emergency reshuffle by boris johnson to get back on the right foot. he replaced rishi sunak as chancellor.
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it is a tenuous moment for boris johnson. anna: -- dani: he might not resign but what about the likelihood of a rule change that allows for another no-confidence vote in boris johnson? >> boris johnson is meant to be shielded for another year from another confidence vote, having won the last one recently. but the rules could change and that comes down to the 1922 committee of conservative backbenchers which have elections next week. the argument will be that if the rules are change the votes can happen more often than once a year, it would make government unstable for future prime minister's. boris johnson will be arguing he has this landslide majority from 2019 and any replacement would have less of a mandate than him to rule. but lots of members of his cabinet will be questioning whether they want to walk through that door today.
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manus: what does the replacement for rishi sunak mean for the economy? do we know much of nadhim zahawi 's economic beliefs? what are his beliefs? >> well of course the economy was the main point in rishi sunak's resignation letter. it was not dated so perhaps he had it in the locker. rishi sunak had said he fundamentally disagreed with boris johnson on how to handle the post-covid recovery and difficult decisions that needed to be taken. it seems that nadhim zahawi would be more fiscally aligned with johnson. there is a speech planned next week on the economy where they may come out more in tune with each other and it is reported that nadhim zahawi would be in favor of reducing the planned
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corporation tax rise which is what markets and businesses care about. anna: -- dani: thank you very much. joining us now is broad to come, king's college london director of the center for british politics and government. i was looking at a survey, 69% of britain want boris johnson to survive. can he survive this? >> not just the majority of britain's, but conservative voters as well. this has been a process that has been going on some months now. a steady drip of scandal against boris johnson. let's not forget, he was in an extremely powerful position. he had a huge majority, landslide victory, only in 2019.
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now it really does look like he is going to struggle even in the immediate future. mark: good -- manus: good to have you with us. he survived a direct challenge to his leadership two weeks ago. so the debate if i'm not incorrect becomes the risk. he does not sound like he is -- the committee changed the rules. where'd you come down on the proper ability of him going voluntarily relative to a change in the rules to provoke a revote? >> in terms of voluntary, very unlikely. he has been clear about this from the outset. last night he was vociferous in declining to go. i do not think that is in the cards. what might push that is more cabinet resignations. that might be the one thing that pushes him to resign. dani: are you expecting more to come?
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>> it could happen. last night was dramatic. i think we will know by the end of the morning. manus: he is flesh wounded at the moment with the chancellor and the health secretary. what would be a fatal day? one of the heavyweights would need to go to change the narrative. >> it is interesting, he has already been losing people who have previously been supporters. rishi sunak was probably not enough for him. somebody who is very closely aligned with him. that would be huge news. any of the offices of state would be a major -- in terms of whether it would force him to resign, who can say? he has resisted up to this point
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but that would be huge. dani: boris johnson clearly at least for the moment not resigning, continuing to hang onto power. what policies might we expect from the prime minister in order to get politicians, to get the public back on his side? >> there is already a program in place aimed at reinforcing support in the public. away from the scandals he has had in recent weeks. it is possibly to lay flat. the 1922 committee is almost an inevitability. that might happen after the election next week. it might happen sooner. there is no reason to suggest current membership will not change the rules if it seems as though there has been a movement in the parliamentary party. manus: well done.
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we were just about to get you to finish off with the 1922 change you have done that with aplomb. rod dacombe. let's see how the politics play out at westminster. let's get your first word news. >> the hong kong exchange chief expects more countries to shift primary listings in the financial hub as they seek inclusion in trading links with mainland china. others may be forced to do so by market rules. alibaba is the most prominent dual listed company excluded from the china stock connect. s&p global ratings displaced unit for's credit rating after the german utility lost a big chunk of its natural gas supplies from russia.
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unit per, germany's top buyer of russian gas is being forced to pay $30 million a day to buy on the spot market after gazprom reduce deliveries. a rescue package is being discussed. a hedge fund gained 4% in june paring declines from the year. some of its biggest equity bets plunged and it was forced to mark down venture capital investments. june was the first month in 2022 it made money. freshwater associates is said to have posted a 32% return for its flagship hedge fund during the first half of 2022 benefiting from increased market volatility. sources say the ray dalio funded firm say it's fund climbed 4.8% in june rebounding after years of struggle. bridgewater has made money in
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65% of the markets in which it trades, we are told. sources say the deal for vmware will move forward after a rival bidder failed to emerge. vmware had 40 days for arrival offers. -- four rival offers. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much. manus: tiktok under pressure. data held on u.s. users. we spoke to the fcc commissioner pushing to get the app blocked from online stores. what did he say? right here on bloomberg. ♪
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>> this comes down to a matter of trust. when there has been misrepresentation about how much data is pulled, where it is going for years now, i do not have trust left in tiktok. dani: the fcc commissioner brendan carr, a member of the federal communications commission speaking after tiktok's admission that some china-based workers have access to data on u.s. users. the app owned by bytedance said certain china-based employees can access information from u.s. viewers. the information -- he denied the information goes to the chinese coming as party. -- communist party. manus: xml selling essential
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chipmaking gear into china. it is an expansion of washington's campaign to curb china's rise in chip production. the proposed restriction on asml would widen an existing moratorium on the sale of existing chipmaking gear to china. the dutch firm is a leading maker of equipment for producing the chips. joining us now is edwin chan in hong kong. what do we know about the scale of this threat? yesterday we were talking about rolling back tariffs. here we are with an escalation narrative. >> this is a significant development. you rightly point out there is a little bit of debate about how the white house should treat china or how it should handle its geopolitical rival. couple things, this shows that at least in semiconductors, a key technological area, it is willing to take a more hard-line stance.
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it also underscores that semiconductors themselves are becoming increasingly a point of conflict between these superpowers. anna: -- dani: i think manus nailed the political backdrop. we are having this debate with tariffs between the u.s. and china. where does all this fit in? >> with semiconductors it is slightly different. one thing we have learned over the past three years is that semiconductors are the heart of just about everything that is essential to life on this planet. global semiconductor shortage has brought these tiny components to the forefront and also highlights kind of the importance in the bigger picture. how they are essential to all
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future technology from ai to robotics to autonomous cars. flying taxis if you will. i think right now, they are realizing they have to take a stand or risk losing to geopolitical rivals. manus: what will the chinese do in terms of doubling down on their capex into this industry? that is the other side of this. thank you for being with us edwin with the latest on the asml story. coming up, the implications for the pound after a night of dramatic resignations in the u.k. government. who will walk up that street to that front door today? will there be more resignations? the pound down an eighth. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: from and london, it is " daybreak europe. the pound holding onto declines. the dollar soaring to the strongest level since 2020 but boris johnson losing two key cabinet members. so here we go, we are taking a tank. the question is do your retest brexit lows? is there enough political angst priced in the pound? >> i think there is more room for angst. political uncertainty is rarely good for currency but in the specific circumstance, it is very unlikely a national election will be called anytime soon. basically until the end of 2024
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it could be. given how much is in the polls, it is very unlikely an election will follow. the markets focus on more near-term factors. it would be the u.k. economy. with that in mind you have consumer confidence at a record low. business confidence at a 15 month low. amid recessionary fears, you think back to april, the economy declined. you see that again in may, it does not bode well for the u.k. economy and would not bode well for sterling. you could see brexit lows being breached at that time. dani: the greenback rallying yesterday. can we expect more the same? >> i think you can in the near
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term. you have the federal reserve that is obviously trying to control inflation, they continue to leave a 75 basis point hike on the table. they are hiking more aggressive than the central bank counterpart. this is a general risk off environment which is also positive for the dollar. yesterday they were down. the u.s. equities rebounded up a little bit. you could see declines in the coming days amid recessionary fears. manus: i'm going to interrupt you, we have breaking news we need to pause right now. breaking news. the secretary-general according to opec officials has died. of course he was the head of opec. he is a nigerian politician, has been the head of opec since 2016, and previously he had been the acting secretary-general in
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2006. so this is breaking news. he was coming to the end of his term and just yesterday i was in touch with officials at opec hoping to go meet him at the end of this month. we have lost our esteemed mohammad sanusi barkindo. he died at 11:00 p.m. yesterday. certainly a great loss to his immediate family, the country of nigeria, opec, and the global energy community. funeral arrangements will be announced shortly. dani: a huge loss here. secretary-general burkindo was 63 years old and the chief executive officer. you just mentioned the tweet saying they lost their esteemed colleague yesterday. that was july 5. just last night. manus: i can tell you just on
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reflections from covering opec, running towards secretary-general a number of occasions, i remember when the russians left the opec building before the pandemic and the saudi's walked out as well and at that moment, he turned around, took control of the situation. my colleagues at cnbc were beside me, cnn to the other side. he spoke to the world and urged calm. he will be greatly missed. dani: he was always generous with his time, certainly speaking to this program. we will continue the coverage coming up on further programs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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