rishaad: running up to 10:00 in hong kong, this is "bloomberg markets: asia." yvonne: our top story of the spines of the dollar dominates, holding onto its biggest jump in the month, underlying investor caution. the euro closing in on parity with the greenback. oil falling for a second session is a covid restaurant -- for surgeons and china. china's credit jumps more than expected, the highest on record for june on a rebound in lending and bond sales. rishaad: gains in these markets, we have weakness across the board. we did not see the conversation to engender many tailwinds. we're looking at oil prices, gold prices down. chaz gains have taken 10 year yields about 2.96%. bond yields rallying elsewhere.

that is what is going on, the usual fears of recession versus inflation or both. david: both are bad. the fed trying to hike rates to avoid one and hopefully avoid the other. equity markets, mostly lower across not just the cash markets, sector-wise, nine out of 11 are down. the big story the currency market, let's take a closer look at that. we've been on parity watch with the euro so we were very close to complements back. a couple other things in the dollar story, you're looking at the south korean won, all-time lows. the philippine peso entering closer now. this one near all-time lows. this is a partial list of the damage the strong dollar has left. the dominance of late. rishaad: let's look at what's going on with the dollar and go

into some historic perspective. the dollar index, heavyweight towards what has been happening in regards to the euro. much bigger weighing on this index. that is 2002, the price action, this is two months, 3.5% up. we look at what's been going on the last 20 years, the dollar index is virtually those levels we did in 2002. we've got near parity with the euro, energy concerns, risk of recession and also for europe. yvonne: you have cities going all in with the euro-dollar trade. you talk about that rampant dollars story, that is where you're going to see in the fx and g10 space. which would bring us back to this 2002 levels for the euro. one thing i think people are

waiting for, the ecb, what are they going to do to try to stop this trend from happening? maybe there isn't anything they can do given their is the energy crisis, this is when you have the nord stream pipeline from russia under maintenance. a lot of lingering questions about whether they're going to reopen that starting january 21. let's bring in our asia fx charge. let's look at the moves across dollar right now. is there a way that could change the direction of the dollar at this point? >> i think there's a lot going on for the dollar. an nominal short-term interest rate differentials have more significantly in favor of the dollar, particularly against currencies like euro and yen. the u.s., unlike the euro area and japan, is not getting

impacted as much by high energy costs from an ethics point of view. -- women fx point of view. we have some safe haven demand for the dollar. a lot going for the dollar at this point. he would not want to stand in the way that. for the euro, you have the opposite side of that trade. it is a low unit currency,? sober how much the ecb can hike at this point. that is putting investors, making them cautious on euro and euro area. there is not a big trigger which can turn around euro or dollar at this point. david: what about the drop in commodity prices? i know you oversee fx, commodity prices have been falling and spilled over into july. we are going to get a u.s. cpi for june. i'm wondering if the july number

might be lower for that and would you trade on the expectation that inflation is peaking or has peaked in the u.s.? >> that is a great point. essentially, i think what is going to happen the next couple of months is that growth concerns will dominate commodity prices, inflate -- correct inflation. at the same time, the markets will want information from the fed that they are going to pause and eventually cut rates. at this point, for 2023, euro-dollar futures expense again -- expecting 75 basis points of rate cuts. and they will look at growth going down, inflation is well above what we wanted to be. that will be an important point for markets. as long as the fed does not deliver on that pricing the

markets are expecting, you see another round of selloff in risky assets which will be supportive for the dollar. yvonne: rishaad: if we see the dollar stronger for longer, where the main victims in this part of the world? >> the first half of the year we were focusing on the commodity importers, the likes of india, thailand, philippines. for the second half, i think that theme is going to change. we are going to get more concerned about growth and exports. the currencies which will come under pressure are going to be the export sensitive, export reliant currencies in the region. north asia, korean won, southeast asia, commodity exporters are going to be under more pressure. yvonne: the repeat, i know you are still looking at long dollar rupee, is there anything the

central bank can do to stem these decline? >> the first line of defense has been the use of fx results. the born reserves from the last months, almost $14 billion. the price action will tell you the demand for dollar on short is under lending at this point, which points to the wide counter percent. i think we have a shift in the way the central bank is looking to manage fx, going from intervention, now we are seeing a greater reliance on performance measures. on gold import taxes, more measures announced, looking to attract inflows of foreign currency. that is also a signal to the market they cannot continue at the same pace of intervention they have been doing the last four or five months.

rishaad: if we do get a recession, that is going to weigh on exports out of china, how will that affect the yuan? >> with you on, we are so constructive, both on china growth and the yuan. china has turned the corners of the second half will look much better. the p.m. nine numbers were strong, the lending data earlier in the week was robust. things are looking better on the growth front. we do look at the risk of exports slowing down sharply. if that were to happen, the fx policy might turn more negative for the yuan. overall, we still think it is going to be quite stable. by the end of the earth, we are looking at 6.6. yvonne: thank you so much. our asia fx strategist.

more covid news and. regarding the area of will gone, that is now going through a lockdown. there walking down the city on one covid case. this is the southern part of the hunan province. this might have implications for commodity markets there. this lockdown is supposed to last for three days. heading pretty fast when it comes to covid cases, lockdowns to -- rishaad: one covid case and population of 800 thousand people. let's look at what is happening first word news. let's look at atlanta fed president bostic repeating his support for 75 basis point hike. rates could go up about 3%

without risking a recession, aggressively to list thing interest rates. to detain the highest inflation for decades. bank customers in china protesting a billion-dollar scandal which will be repaid in advance. at least ¥50,000 -- hundreds of customers rallied of the weekend, demanding the return of up to tens of billions of yuan of bitcoins. china pending the u.s. of blueprint for the coexistence in the asia-pacific, the chinese prancer made the proposal during a meeting with his u.s. counterpart antony blinken, around upholding region -- current regional frameworks, and each other's interests. taiwan's vice president in tokyo visiting to pay respects to the

former vice -- former prime minister shinzo abe. his most senior taiwanese official to visit since 1972. the trip and cited angry response from china. abe was a popular figure in taiwan for support of the island. james webb space telescope reveals the highest resolution views of the distant universe ever captured. the 10 billion-dollar observatory watch last year to look deep into space and time. it shows that as it appeared 4 billion years ago. it uses infrared like to see further than any previous telescope. does your first word headlines. david: just ahead here on the show, where to get back to earth, some serious problems underground. events of the week on the

economic and political crisis in sri lanka. leaders stepping down midweek. we will talk about what that means for negotiations with the imf. there going to choose a new president. yvonne: china's credit jumps to record highs following an aggressive stimulus boost. we break it down for you next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yvonne: take a look at when comes to greater china, markets today, we are in the right when comes to hstech, regarding those fines on alibaba and tencent. will bank -- wugang to be locked down for three days.

the covid wrists still there, shanghai, csi 300, pretty sheltered from this risk off day. david: in some ways offset by the policy support that has come out, latest one was the june credit numbers. on the back of this two steps forward, one step back in the reopening. one example is m2, 11.4%, the biggest pace of increase going back to 2016. this is visualized against travel -- annual averages, the target, general guidance is m2 growth at the same rights as nominal growth. the other bids are coming up, it shows you the june in terms of aggregate financing, was the biggest june on record. the reason we have this up as local government bonds, a big part of why this number was so big, over $5 trillion.

goldman sachs says -- government bond issuance is concerned. rishaad: let's take it over to our bloomberg economist. eric, what you read into this credit, what does it signal to you? >> there are two main messages. the fiscal credit in june. local governments are completing issuance of special bonds by the end of june. we saw june issuance more than double from may. second, on the long side, there are signs the demand is starting to recover from a lockdown.

we see the consumer mortgage and loans increase. auto sales, home sales rebounded in june. also developing the credit number. question is, the recovery, we know june bond activity, related to some pent-up demand. it is unclear what we will see in the future. yvonne: not sure if it is sustained. we saw a more fiscal stimulus in the pipeline as well. what does that mean for recovery in the second half? >> on the investment side, there going to go into next year's

bonds in the second half of the year. the question is on the consumption, on the demand. covid zero is still active. the recovery should look ok, that there is not another major outbreak. nobody knows how -- [indiscernible] in the second half of the year. david: eric said there's a ton of data coming out this week's of what would you say among everything that is coming out is the most important year to year?

>> i think across friday's data on the second-quarter gdp, will be closely watched. we saw june's activity, starting to reopen in this month. our expectation is that given the stronger bonds, there's a big shift -- on that liquidity side, piercing production, retail sales still in trouble. investments, real estate will probably recover. yvonne: eric shute, our

bloomberg economist on what to expect on that data coming up. if you look what comes to fx, that is going to be a big thing here. coming up, the u.s. commerce secretary, saying lawmakers are playing politics with national security, our interview straight ahead. here's how your fx markets are looking right now. the dollar euro purity, we are slightly off greatly now. we continue to see the dollar rally run rampant this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

rishaad: bloomberg markets, the u.s. secretary of commerce says she is expecting a decision on easing some chinese tariffs to

come very soon. she also called on u.s. lawmakers to pass a bill funding worship banking -- chip making calling and national security issue. >>, yes, it will happen. it is taking much too long. what is at stake is our national security. even beyond the economy. every piece of military equipment requires chips. if you talk to the heads of national defense contractors, as i have done, or senior ranking officials in the department of defense, they are very worried about the delay. it will get done. at this point in the negotiations, unfortunately, politicians look for leverage. while it isn't right to play politics with national security, that is what i think is happening. in the past two weeks, we made huge progress. we were closing out issues, funding compromise. i think everyone needs to come back today, get back to work and

commit themselves to getting it done in the next few weeks. >> let me ask what difference it makes whether it happens today or six months from today, what decisions are being made from companies that may not be reversible down the road? >> what you say is right. chip companies are making decisions now. because they need to meet demand their biggest customers in 2025, and beyond. which means we have to start getting on new facilities this fall. it made a choice to expand in about the united states. that is a loss. you mentioned didn't help, who saying perhaps they will slow down there expansion in favor of germany. the reason is these big companies are hearing from their

customers that they need confidence that the companies will be able to supply to them. 2025, 2020 6, 2027, chip demand will be through the roof. these suppliers need to police for their customers. they want to be in the u.s. -- you need to fulfill for their customers. they want to be in the u.s., if that choice is not filling customer demand or doing this in germany, japan, and we don't provide them subsidies, they are going to leave. members of congress, get back to d.c., do your job, don't let america it leaves out. >> should we be expecting an announcement from the president before he departs for the middle east this week on tariffs, on easing the tariffs currently applied to a number of chinese goods? that ahead of the cpi number

will be something a lot of people will look for. >> i'm not sure. i don't know the precise timing. his team are in active discussions with him. something we are talk about every day. he is doing his job, which is looking at all the different factors. you will see a decision, i think, very soon, whether it is before he takes off this week, i'm not sure. >> just to pursue the china issue for moments of the tariffs are one part of a much more complex mosaic. we talk about tariffs in terms of inflation, he said they will not have that big an effect, what about the larger -- is it possible it could be bilateral, that china could give something to the united states reformulate our trade relations? >> certainly that is possible. made an excellent point, which

is part of the discussion, which is to say we are willing to do this, what can they do on their side of the equation? while i cannot say for sure, certainly that is possible. if it doesn't happen immediately, it is something we will continue to pursue in the interest of fairness. if we are lifting tariffs, what are they going to do? david: that was the u.s. second -- sec. of commerce. a look at asian equity markets, most sectors are down, nine out of 11. a couple movers to tell you about, no protect down 20%. i call that the norah jones narrative, don't know w

>> seven death enhanced.

the evaluation of a. >> in many ways, everything we are dealing with today and still working through is within the structure and intellectual framework that he put out on the table. quick shinzo abe's contribution to the world is more limited. >> it is a tragedy for the japanese-american relationship, which is the linchpin of our whole approach of asia. >> the reform is that we would accept no change. >> more than three years without any election. this is a perfect timing to conduct structural reform. yvonne: the world still mourning the loss over the prime minister. taking a live look at of tokyo where a private funeral will be held today for shinzo abe. we have seen an outpouring from global leaders, antony blinken

did make a short trip to tokyo, they made a rare trip there as well. so, it continues to be such a sad day in japan for the next few days, of course we are watching the markets very closely given the dollar strength, but we continue to wait for these larger memorial services for the prime minister. david: today is the private one and it certainly as far as policy is concerned, for many of our guests, about friday, the most impactful prime minister's policies concerned in this sentiment is, a lot of these reforms have been put in place with enough momentum to continue, and most of these things are considered really just net positive for the economy for japan and obviously for the markets, so we will keep you guys updated, the private funeral of former shinzo abe. rishaad: we have their current

japanese prime minister saying he will continue to work on the legacy of shinzo abe and bring many of his ideas to fruition. let's have a look at first word news we have at the moment. china and oil party government with the president and the prime minister agreeing to resign. the parliamentary speaker saying that they will step down wednesday and parliament will vote to elect a new president. whereabouts are unknown after he escaped before he entered his official home. u.s. commerce secretary says president biden will announce a decision on the terrace very soon and the m initiation is still in discussion on the issue. he also says u.s. lawmakers are playing politics with national security by delaying legislation, boosting funding with domestic chipmakers to compete with china. >> if we are going to do this, then what can they do? so while i cannot say for sure, certainly that it's possible,

and by the way, if it doesn't happen immediately, it's something we will pursue, just in the interest of, as you say, fairness, if we are lifting tariffs, what are they going to do. >> the australian prime minister will have a new era of climate action in his speech to the sydney energy forum, he will repeat his promise for legislation, including a target of 43% emission covered by 2030, and net zero by 2050, green party lawmakers say that target doesn't go far enough, calling for a 60 cent cut by 2030. the liquidators of bankrupt crypto hedge fund has said the funds founders have not -- have not been cooperating. representatives traveled to the three areas opposite of singapore to locate them but found them dormant webmail mail piling up at the door, they previously said the pair did intend to cooperate, that's a look at the first word headlines.

david: let's have a look at energy markets in the active contracts year for brandt, west texas and other iterations of energy policies, mostly down as far as rent is concerned, looking at 105, 89, which should be putting up consolidating lightly to the upside so i could describe it that way along the 100 j moving average head about 105, 44. yvonne: we had those line saying that the energy crisis could continue enduring, as they say, a lot of lingering questions about russia, nor tree pipeline, at least for now, is down due to maintenance, but what are they going to do? will he restart that, can he cut that pipeline and that energy completely and let's bring in our energy reporter joining us for more, stephen, it seems like there's a lot of lingering questions on what russia is going to do. there has been a lot of lobbying

that has been going on when it comes to these western nations trying to get asia to subscribe to this price cap. do thing india and japan are actually going to endorse it? wax you have the u.s. energy secretary saying it's their goal. they will push for japan and india to join. the thing is, when you look at japan and india, they've had two pretty different strategies. japan is often sided with what the g7 and what western allies are doing to punish russia. they implemented a cold band, they are taking other measures, including a number of different sanctions against russia and russian officials. meanwhile, india, not so much and has increased imports of russian oil because it was cheaper. they bought more liquefied natural gas from russia as the market sort of stayed away, so the biggest difficulty was creating a price cap and getting all of these countries on board

in this very intricate complicated system, india, china as well might be boats that aren't too willing to join the system if they want to buy more. of course a price cap could mean lower systems, but if they want to carry as much fuel as possible, they might end up not agreeing to such terms being proposed by the united states. rishaad: we are looking at the iea's sake about perhaps the worst is yet to calm -- perhaps the worst is yet to come in is not uplifting. but when you do -- >> when you look at the situation in the natural gas market, you mentioned we got this key pipeline in europe that just for 10 days for maintenance, if it doesn't turn back on, it will be very challenging to rebuild natural gas inventories for winter. enter is the peak demand season for natural gas, its use for heating for powerplant fuel and if europe doesn't have enough natural gas in europe when

demand peaks, they run the risk of actually having to ration supplies. that is a much worse situation than we are right now, so the role is saying, rightfully so, that winter is in focus and it could be a lot worse this winter in the market needs to prepare, government needs to prepare and suppliers need to be with ready for that possibility. david: is an almost not a realistic expectation that between now and the time we have to stockpile up for winter that those stockpiles and inventories will stay? just give us a general state of inventory, whether in the oil market or in the gas market. >> let's take a look at gas, gas inventories are at a normal level for this time of year. natural gas that is. they were at a pretty steady clip, despite late february because russia was still sending gas to europe and they were refilling.

those flows have been ratcheting down over the last few weeks. with nord stream one potentially being off-line and starting with the maintenance, it will be very challenging to hit that 80% full, 90% full before the winter starts. you need to have all of the inventories refilled, only about 50% or 60% capacity right now, and it will be very challenging to that 80%, 90% number if we don't get that russian gas into europe. that means you are buying more liquefied natural gas. essentially, the emerging world is being priced out because there is so much competition for gas between pakistan, bangladesh, india, even china won't be able to afford or won't want to buy expensive liquefied natural gas and that could cause more shortage not just in europe, but around the world.

rishaad: we are looking at gas prices and oil as well. wti 102. we are looking at a country that has gotten a lot of fuel. we are talking sri lanka, we will look at how its debt talks with the irs is going, and this struggle with rising food as well as energy prices and talking to the center for policy alternatives, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

kwuex the government had a function according to the law. i'm here to protect the constitution, and through it, fulfill the people's demand. what we need is an all party government and we will take steps to establish that. >> is a need to a smooth transition to a legitimate government that can continue dialogue with international stakeholders to support sri lanka. >> they are negotiating with her counterpart at the imf, the negotiations at the technical level will proceed the way they were before. yvonne: sri lanka officials on

the prime minister speaking on the situation happening in the country, political chaos that continues here as these crisis talks go on as well, how does it impact those discussions with the imf. good question. rishaad: let's get some perspective from the senior research for the policy of alternative research. this is a political crisis, it's a huge economic crisis as sri lanka needs to have, i suppose, and united front and that's what's in the offing, at least. but the needs for right now, which needs to be done, can the imf help or can another country, perhaps even china, get involved? >> we are seeing unprecedented development for the political and economic, but most urgently ensuring the political stability. what happened over the weekend is quite remarkable, and now we have a president saying they're

going to resign. but they haven't yet resigned, they have just said they are going to resign. the next question is what's in term for the political front. in terms of the system and a threatening economic crisis, extremely boring, and we need all the assistance we can get from the imf to bilateral, so we cannot be choosy, we need to look at all options. but all options also need to be looked at in terms of how we benefit from sri lanka. a lot of work ahead in terms of getting the system, but ensuring face they will lies in the country. david: are there any specific names that come to mind that might be able to bring some semblance? because i imagine the ims -- the imf and the bodies we are looking out for funding perhaps won't cut the check and lesser someone to cut the check to.

>> and that's the big issue with who is able to bring instability, but also show that they have the concert -- confidence of the people. sri lanka is in such a situation that the question has been asked. the opposition leader has come forward yesterday and said he is willing to run in terms of the process of the constitution, which will be next week. >> i don't think one individual alone is able to carry sri lanka through in the next couple of weeks and months, it's such a situation that you need a team in place, you need a team of experts, but also political leaders who give confidence that they are able to take sri lanka through the very bumpy road ahead, but also keeping in mind, we need to look to elections as soon this situation can because we need a mandate from the people in terms of the crisis.

so no one individual, it will have to be a team that is able to work together and have a plan and work with the international community to ensure that urgent relief is needed, but also stability and economic recovery. yvonne: you also are a part of what could be a humanitarian crisis that is unfolding before your eyes, can you just walk us through what you are seeing where you are in colombo right now, and what reforms are still needed on that front? >> it is extremely worrying in terms of the humanitarian. in terms of looking at the crisis, it the political, economic and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, we are seeing people having to stay for three or four days sometimes to get well, they start with

centralized medicine so the people aren't directly affected in different ways, and we are headed towards a situation where they report now that many would face starvation and humanitarian assistance not being received in the coming weeks. it's extremely worrying and scary situation at the time were many are already seeing this. we see not something that is going to be the future, it's happening as we speak, and in that, even with the imf dale out, if that packet comes, when part -- one particular component is the social security. how do you address the most vulnerable community, how do you ensure they receive assistance in that situation is not further deteriorated. one needs to recognize its

growing and sri lanka because there has been several instances where we have seen violence in the last few weeks because that anger and frustration from the people is very real. all of these will need urgent attention from whoever is able to take office and take charge of a very worrying situation on the ground. rishaad: just very quickly here, they are do to resign wednesday, is that providing a bit of relief for the population because they have been calling for him to go? but if you replace them, you have to have a team, which you have just been mentioning, which you have confidence in, but it's a job nobody wants to do because they will be blamed for everything that has gone wrong. >> yes, at one level, people are happy in a way that the president has announced that he is to resign. and many are questioning why

that resignation has taken so long, he should've resigned over the weekend when a remarkable number of people came to protest, and he announced his resignation over the weekend, but he hasn't followed through, so it is likely to happen tomorrow, we will have to see if it actually happens, now, it is not going to solve all the problems, he is one step in the direction we should be moving. we also need to see the resignation of the prime minister, but who is going to be able to take charge? that's going to be the big question. and who will be able to stabilize the country, because it will be a mammoth charge. we will have to see who gets elected through the established process provided in the constitution next week. i just hope that there aren't

surprises that push sri lanka back. exit extremely important and very sensitive moment to keep the democratic property. so very legitimate time for sri lanka. yvonne: thank you so much for giving your perspective from the center for policy alternative. coming up, retail investors are dumping twitter shares with the $34 billion must deal drama. they will discuss what's next in the takeover saga. this is bloomberg. ♪

ivanka: twitter shales plot -- shares plunged after elon musk walked away from a deal to buy the company facing a disruptive legal battle. let's hear more from su keenan, i guess we were expecting a bit of a job given the blowup news we saw in friday, but this was quite a shop -- shock. >> a big drop down 11%, the biggest one-day drop in more than a year, and a lot in market value, the chaos is only just begun, legal experts say, and their experts saying that this stock could drop further, you can't just walk away from a 70 plus paid contract for $44

billion takeover, both wall street and legal experts say, that's what muska has done with this regulatory filing last friday, within minutes, twitter's chairman weeded out that they were going to hold must, force him to go through with the buyout of twitter, and now the games have begun, twitter has hired a very big law firm, it's expected according to people close to the matter that there will be a filing in the next few days, we do know it's going to be heard in the delaware court, and we also know that elon musk is talking about bots again, that there were a lot of bots and users that twitter didn't disclose this, and many legal experts say that is going to be a tough argument because the reports in delaware tend to favor the party that has the contract for takeover, and not the party that tries to walk away.

rishaad: tell me here, this is something that often doesn't get to court if we could have a settlement outside of court, also got that $1 billion walk away, but they tend when they get to court, people in delaware, at least, tend to side with the company's who were trying to be taken over. >> you're absolutely right, they tend to be pro-corporate, pro-merger, so what we have here is twitter likely going to be asking this to be fast-track, that there be a trial, a billion-dollar breakup fee if muska is able to get away with that, it's unlikely to happen, the likely scenario is what was mentioned, a settlement, something between a $5 billion to 10 billion-dollar breakup fee is agreed upon, and they both walk away for twitter to win and force the sale, they might

actually lose in the sense that has a reluctant owner of the company and an erratic reluctant owner, many say, back to you. david: su keenan on all the latest out of twitter, speaking of reluctant, the bulls are on the sideline today, even more so with some of the losses continuing to extend with the taiex index at 2.7%, now down 20 5% back to i believe 20/20 lows on that specific index, it's all about the dollar strength. by the way, that starting to, in a lot of ways, act up. what you have seen from friday, up till now. 8/10 of 1% monday into tuesday. and having a sort of domino -- domino effect and the effects. watch the closing dollar. very close to all-time lows. in fact, i will get you that in just a moment. a couple of specific benchmarks we are tracking. i talked about taiwan 2020 lows.

on this one we are back below the 50 day moving average and the hang seng index. i will leave you with a look at currency markets. the rest, talked about that, dollar index, 108. dollar one, highest since 2000. rishaad: if you look at some of these commodities, from -- for instance, soybeans are below the invasion prices, palm oil as well. wheat is down 35% from its may peak as well. so you know it's grinding lower. yvonne: you know that china city will shut down for three days. more fears there, plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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