tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg July 13, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
david: good morning. it is almost 10:00 a.m. welcome to bloomberg markets: asia. rishaad: we have more aggressive fed tightening and ensuing economic downturn. inflation -- we're hearing that inflation has not yet peaked. plus, china decides to shift away from that control to support its locked down, rabbit -- lockdown-ravaged economy. we got this australian massive jobs beat.
more jobs created than expected. we also have this hold debt situation in china. at the moment, authorities readying more stimulus as communities prepared to emerge from lockdown. david: right now, when you look at things with high yields, for example, we will get to the story a bit later on, a lot more pressure on that side with credit markets in china. we are actually ok in the equity markets, at least for today. what is standing out as far as today is concerned, singapore, of course, which we will get to later. we are weaker in the commodity market. u.s. inflation -- i mean, it really does not matter how you slice and dice it. nine point percent.
this is the pricing right now in terms of what the market think the fed is going to do. add all of the numbers of, this takes you into about just over 200 basis points right now. rishaad: a lot of people are talking about 100 basis points as a move next, and this is something which is garnering a lot of attention. more people thinking we are going to get a full percentage point rather than 75 basis points. you can see that inversion on the left side of your screen. you can see another bout of inversion, but if you take the chart further back, you can also see it protecting what happened in the early 1990's where we had an eight-month-long recession in the u.s., too. markets turning sharply versus rapidly shifting focus with the process of inflation turning interest rate hikes, such
tightening might conflict. these are the rate decisions we have had in the past 24 hours. new zealand and korea were on the program yesterday discussing all that. david: chile was out with 75 earlier on. singapore off cycle move. the exchange rate mechanism effectively tightening policy, which is why we are seeing some strength coming through. also coming through, not so much central banks, but data that indicates what the rba might do. the unemployment rate in australia -- the median estimate was 3.8 percent. the lowest estimate was 3.7 percent. what we got was 3.5%, the lowest pretty much since records were kept. your three-year yield is now north of 3%, up about teen basis points. let's talk about all of this.
we were joking about this earlier on, that when u.s. inflation was at 5%, the fed told us it was transitory, and they were correct. >> exactly because it went so much higher. it is interesting, of course. 9.1%, a monthly gain of 1.3%, the highest in 17 years. when i spoke to the president of the cleveland fed, her characterizations, of course, uniformly bad. no good news business report. the rent payments people make, the equivalent rent when you turn your mortgage payment into cost-of-living -- she said that's going to keep moving up. it is just the way that number is constructed. the top line cpi was a concern,
they said there's not just a couple of things driving it, it is very broad based. when he was asked about 75 and then 100-point hike, he basically said everything is in play. there's a lot of work i feel we need to do with my team to understand the outlook has come in different than we expected. i think that is one of the most powerful points about the data today. people knew it would be high, but all of the different elements -- no good news inside. you hear daily from the san francisco fed, who said 100 basis point hike is in the realm of possibility. loretta mester, i push her as hard as i could about how about a 100 basis point hike. she said she would not go there. she did not say it would not happen, but she got on board clearly with a-point move -- 75-basis-point move. >> the report suggests there's no reason to say a smaller rate
increase than last time because nothing moved in that direction. rishaad: there are those who would argue against a full percentage point rate hike the meeting coming up because it takes time to feel the rate hikes we have already had. kathleen: may i say quickly -- look at the u.s. housing market. look at mortgage rates. look at how housing markets have dried up. it is because of this big, big jump, some of it having a very big impact right now. the kansas city fed last week did a whole essay warning about you may over scare here if you are going to speed up the pace of hikes so much, maybe you are going to cause damage and recession that you did not mean to do. signaling where you are going, sure, but you know we are going
to have a lot more later in your show. rishaad: people have been saying there's no good news in that report. give us a sense of where the u.s. economy is, what they see given we have such a strong jobs market, inflation creeping higher and higher and at the same time, consumer confidence at record lows. >> i think the inversion chart david put of earlier tells you all you need to know. they're concerned that whatever central banks do, especially the fed, it will trigger a big slowdown in the united states and possibly even a recession. that's why you have a massive inversion, a deepening one.
the bank of canada have made it easier for the fed to go by 100 basis points last night, but of course, it could smell like a bit of panic if the fed is under one hundred basis points having just done 75, so i expect the fed do another 75 and signaled there is still plenty more to do should the need arise. whatever it is, the fed will keep up the message that they are working hard to beat inflation, there is still more work to do. what else can they do after the cpi report kathleen was describing? there was really going -- there was really no good news in that report and there's no immediate sign it is coming down, so the fed has to stay very aggressive. probably 75 basis points rather than 100. david: i'm glad you brought up the bank of canada. the rba i would imagine, look at what the fed might do or the bank of canada is doing, take
this employment report that came out around 40 minutes back. do you think that then opens up the prospect of bigger hikes? how will they interpret the data coming through? >> the rba have shown themselves to be a little more cautious than some of the other central banks. it took them a long time to talk themselves into 50 basis points, which they eventually did, and they have said that they could repeat that. but the market is starting the price in the chance of 75 basis points. again, the rba will probably defer. they do meet more often than most central banks. they don't have to wait too long before they take another look at it, but i specked they will go with a 50 basis point move. rishaad: surprise move out of the monetary authorities where you are.
>> the only surprise really was that they did it now. some people thought they would wait until the cpi report later in the month, but there was the gdp report today which probably was weaker than expected, but still reasonable. the tightening today was not as aggressive as april. today, the technicality of it was they adjusted the band upwards but did not change the slope. that means it is a tightening of policy but not the so-called double tightening. that was very aggressive. they are ahead of most asian central banks, so the singapore dollar would likely stay strong against these regional currencies, but against the u.s. dollar, they are competing with the federal reserve and there's not so much you can do when the federal reserve is being as aggressive as it is. the singapore dollar will
certainly do very well against most of the asian currencies. david: you can follow more on the story and all the day's trade on our markets live with mliv . let's take you to new york. vonnie quinn is there with first word news. bonnie: sri lanka's president has missed a deadline to announce his resignation. earlier, protesters stormed's office, leading authorities to remove the state of emergency. the prime minister has restated that parliament will choose a
new president next week. rishi sunak, his resignation triggered the fall of boris johnson has taken an early lead in the race to succeed him as prime minister. beating the trade minister and foreign secretary. the contest still remains wide open. the u.s. sec chair has cast doubt on a deal being reached in light of a chinese audit report. he says good faith negotiations are ongoing but there is a risk no agreement is reached. the 20 24 deadline is looming. president biden says the u.s. would use force to prevent iran from developing nuclear weapons. during his visit to israel, the president sought to calm fears.
his tour also takes into saudi arabia and he focused on removing ties limiting oil supplies. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. rishaad: still to come, the brookings institution telling us why access to the world wide web is a basic human need and the covid-19 pandemic is essentially compounded simple internet poverty. david: lingering fear, lockdowns in china, what does it mean for oil and energy markets? we look at the chart next. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: ok, most active on brent, u.s. crude, not gas -- not much happening, so i will leave it there for now. the u.s. president did open his first visit to the middle east as president by essentially declaring a deep bond between the u.s. and israel. we have this report from jerusalem. >> president biden just wrapped up his first day on his inaugural middle east tour as resident of the united states. he was in tel aviv and also here in the holy city of jerusalem. today, he will have a joint press conference and make statements next to the caretaker prime minister. he is a caretaker prime minister because right now israel does not have a government. they are looking ahead to elections in november, but the main moment will come friday evening where we now know president biden will sit down with saudi arabia's crown
prince. the first president to be traveling from israel to saudi arabia and this will be a difficult one for the president to draw the line at home. on the one hand, he needs the kingdom's help to put more barrels on the market to bring vaseline prices down, but at the same time, he has bowed and he was campaigning for the job to make saudi arabia a pariah. rishaad: president biden downplaying a report of rising inflation in june, calling it out of date because of the rising u.s. -- the decline in u.s. gasoline prices. thank you for joining us. we've got president biden going to saudi arabia. do you think he's got any chance of coming back with anything in his hands or will they be empty? >> my best guess is nothing really materializes, but the
good news is it changes the market psychology, right? we know there's some falling out regarding politicians in the greendale and maybe even the iranian deal, so there potentially could be some fundamental supply stories that help us out the problem we have been dealing with in the last several months. david: general direction, though, against the backdrop of fundamentally a world where we don't have a lot of spare capacity. reconcile those two almost conflicting realities for us. >> the thing about commodities is -- and his it's easy to get wrapped up in the headlines in the stories -- trust me, i read them every day as well -- supplies are tight. fundamentals are bullish for crude. everyone agrees with that, but i point out that commodities are tricky. literally right at the time you cannot imagine a commodity stalling off, it does. we have seen this in the last couple of months with wheat. the world was running out of
wheat a few weeks ago and we went from $13 to eight dollars, so you can never underestimate the ability of the commodity market to correct, and i think it is just a matter of time for crude oil. that said, oil has dropped a good $30 in the last couple of weeks, and i think we are coming up against some support. if you look at a monthly chart, we basically were trading at a comfortable range prior to the war breaking out, and prices are currently approaching support that was previously resistant. in other words, it was a trendline on their way up and i will be support on the way down. if we break low, that, by the way, is around the $90 mark. there is some give and take, but somewhere around $90, maybe 91, maybe 89, somewhere in that ballpark, we should see some buyers come back in because the fundamental story is still there. that said, i don't think we are
anywhere in the same environment we were a few months ago. the rallies will probably be smaller and it will probably be short-lived. believe it or not, crude oil is probably more comfortable in the 50 dollars to $75 range and i think we will see those prices at some point in the next year or so. i want to be careful being a complacent bull here. commodities can drop fast and do it without warning. david: most everyone would be a lot more comfortable with oil at $50, $60. any specific levels you are tracking? >> if we break $90, natural progression would be about $85. $85 is probably pretty significant support. if we break that, we start to get to a point where the market just fleshes out, fundamentals no longer matter. in the short run, speculators getting onto and out of markets and really deviate prices.
we will break 85, i think we will get a pretty good slide into the mid-70's. in the short run, i think we go higher. long run, i think we are topping those levels. as scary as it is to look at crude prices now, we have to remember if we are in the same boat in 2007, and at that time, the world just -- literally, everybody assumed we were running out of oil and crude oil would never go down. rishaad: a huge amount of the cpi basket is energy. with the dollar where it is, you have to feel sorry for countries who have weak currencies. i have to point to the euro because that's going to be a huge contributor to euros on inflation where it is near parity right now. the thing is the euro has all sorts of seasonal characteristics. >> the seasonal pattern of the
euro is to find some sort of low in july and it generally finds a way to rally through october. this happens most years, not every year. also when we look at a monthly chart, we see non-trendline support. i cannot rule out under one dollar, maybe .98 in the short run, but in the long run, this is just a overcrowded trade. i read an article that the overcrowded trades are long dollar. that would help commodities in the short run for some of the support levels we're approaching. rishaad: thank you so much. will be look at -- we will be
david: breaking news out of manila -- the philippines following singapore with the central bank basically saying that they have raised interest rates by -- get this -- 75 basis points. that takes the benchmark to 3.20 5%. that's an unexpected move. the stock market slightly off levels right before the rate took place. my producer will probably check us in a moment, this is the
biggest hike -- in what? go ahead. rishaad: this is what i guess they are really targeting here. look at what's going on with bond yields. of course, an exchange-rate which has been under pressure. the dollar falling back .6%. looking at that big move -- there we go. david: stronger there, and it looks like easy work. we touched all-time lows there against the greenback. further policy tightening is warranted. at their scheduled meeting, they in between would deliver
something like this. we talk about singapore banks. >> tightening taking place. we have that surprise tighter policy. we will certainly be watching that. let's have a look at the markets overall. it is a bit of a mixed bag. we have the nikkei higher, and looking elsewhere at singapore, just getting some information, but this is a big interest rate hike in the philippines. david: yeah, shout out to our producer.
>> i see still a big headache for the whole industry. and right now, we are still struggling with several key -- the overall situation is better than the end of last year. david: meanwhile, in the rest of asia, auto is up 2% or more against the backdrop of markets that are i guess on the fence if you will depending on where you look, because we have had surprises today out of singapore. we will get to that but the broader story 6/10 of 1%, japan going into its lunch break. a couple seconds left to be precise. in taiwan, we are entering
earnings season and we are going to get the big one, the biggest one in the asian-pacific next couple of hours. rishaad: japan is going to lunch break in five seconds and you got chief cabinet secretary talking about covid. raising the warning flag to the highest red level according to the fuji news network. and the cabinet secretary talking about the fx move with a heightened sense of urgency. as david was saying, we've got tsmc up, second earnings, 60 4% jump in profits thanks to resilient demands. alert for guidance on spending plans. david: let's bring in debbie wu who covers the region for us at bloomberg. , so we gave away the estimate 64%. rake that down for us. what is driving such a big push in net income? debby: so far, we have seen demand for apple's devices
holding strong, but i think investors and analysts will be keen to look out for what tsmc is going to revise on its guidance for for your growth and a spending plan for this year. previously, ts mce said they expected sales to go up 30% in u.s. dollar terms. and it is planning to spend 40 billion or 42 billion u.s. dollars to increase capacity this year. and it revised its guidance. that means that this is going to be a major warning for electronics. but on the other hand, for tsmc, i hope that the guidance means that it might not be as great as some had feared. if rishaad: capex plans are going to be very important. we are looking at a weaker
smartphone market into the fourth quarter or should i say this week, as chip demand may not kick in until the fourth quarter. but let's focus in on the impact of a strong dollar on all of this. debby: the strong dollar does play into this, but it is not going to be a key factor affecting the global chip industry. you've got u.s. chipmakers like micron giving the warning for its current outlook for the current quarter, because so far, we think demand for pcs and smartphones does not help chipmakers much. tsmc is not sort of seemed like much impact from the strong dollar. it is still demand and high inflation that is going to
affect chipmakers around the world. rishaad: just looking at the slowdown that we have seen in of course pc demand, this is a curious one here, debbie, but you know, a year or two ago, there is a massive proportion of sales going to bitcoin minors. how is that part of the business doing and does it in anyway kind of re-act to the slowdown, the price fall that we have seen in crib does -- in crypto? debby: the demand for chips from companies like nvidia, in this case,, even before the pandemic, because there was once sort of a mini clashing event for cryptocurrency -- a mini crashing event. they did say at one point they are not expanding capacity
specifically, so tsmc has managed crypto related risks fairly well. rishaad: well, thank you very much debbie. asia tech reporter debbie wu. you can turn to bloomberg for more on those earnings. go to tliv . let's have a look at first word news as we head to new york to join vonnie quinn. vonnie: the biden administration moving forward a a bill. lloyd austin says the chip act is the only way to reduce reliance on foreign made semi conductors. the bill has bipartisan support. the senate minority leader mitch mcconnell is blocking it while democrats negotiate a spending package. singapore's central bank is unexpectedly tightening policy as it seeks to: inflation. they use the foreign exchange as
a policy tool. it said in a statement it is re-centering its policy along the currency to appreciate further against peers, that should help imported cost pressures. bank of canada is surprising us with a basis point, the biggest since 1998. it pushes the policy rate to 2.5%. economists were expecting a 75 basis point increase. two years sovereign bond yields jumped. governor ted has warned more hikes are on the way. >> frontloading interest rate increases, trying to avoid the need for higher interest rates down the road. frontloading tightening cycles tend to be followed by softer landings. this argues for getting our policy rate to the top and/or slightly above the neutral range. vonnie: once the ims board
approved. they can cover less than two months of endpoints right now. inflation is at a high. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. david? david: it's 10:30 in the morning in hong kong. we have all the big headlines for you i do. today is about headline risk and i cannot think of any day in the past few months where that is really front and center. from about 6 a.m. everything, you have singapore coming out, re-centering the midpoint. that surprised tightening. you have the aussie jobs number jump. and just a couple minutes ago, the last one here, another off cycle move on top of singapore. the philippines raising their policy rate 75 basis points. we were waiting a couple of weeks, but they came before the meeting. let's flip the boards and have a look at our global macro movers and see those headlines play out.
top, singapore, philippines. top, singapore, philippines. yields pushing higher. this is a market that investors and traders are banking on the next headline that drops. and it is precisely that. rishaad: inflation moving higher of course as well as we got the cpi print where the fed was saying that the hot inflation report suggests that interest rate hikes of at least 75 basis points may well be needed later this month. they spoke exclusively to bloomberg. prices have not peeked despite the shock and report. >> it was uniformly bad. there was no good news in that report at all. inflation remains unacceptably high. we at the fed have to be very deliberate and intentional about continuing on this path and raising our interest rate until we get and see convincing evidence that inflation is turning a corner, is on a
downward path, and is sustainably on a downward path. and we just have more work to do. kathleen: if we had asked you about 100 basis points two or three months ago, i do not think we would have thought to ask you. is that something that you could see being discussed? would you discuss it? is it something that is quote unquote on the table, that maybe has to be under consideration, because the fed has to figure out just how aggressive you have to be? loretta: we're going to have the meeting and were going to talk about what the appropriate path of policy is. and again, we do not have to make a decision today. were going to take into account all of the data. but we are having this conversation, markets are having the conversation and putting their money where their mouth is, in terms of where market expectations are. so were going to be talking about the appropriate path of policy. and i have not seen any convincing evidence that inflation has turned the corner.
we have not seen anything in that new cpi report that suggests inflation is turning down. we do know energy prices, right, how fallen compared to prior months. so you know, we have some expectation that the next report, we might see that number going down, but on the other hand, we got shelter prices going up. again, i think it is much more -- the focus i think is on the fact that we are going to have to keep moving interest rates up , being deliberate and intentional about it. you know, if we are moving toward a two and a half percent below what the neutral rate is, my belief is we will have to go beyond that and well beyond that, because, right, inflation and expectations are higher than 2% now so we're going to have to keep moving. in the pace at which we do that is going to be driven by are we seeing demand getting into
better balance with constrained supply, which remains constrained, in order to see that inflation get on that sustainable downward trajectory. and we have not seen that. kathleen: given what you've seen, given today's report, are -- will you consider, are you in a position to -- again, you got a couple weeks, two and a half weeks basically or so, to figure it out. but 75 basis for example, is that something that you are leaning more now to say that is something i may use supporting at the july meeting? loretta: certainly, the inflation report suggests that there is no reason to say a smaller race increase in we did last time. because nothing moved in that direction. there are very, very early signs and some of the reports of an easing of demand. but again, not enough that you actually saw price pressures being alleviated. we had our board of directors
meeting tomorrow, i am particularly interested in what they are seeing in the economy. we have the data reports i mentioned. they are going to be significant. but right now job one for us is to get inflation under control. and i say that knowing that the risk of recession has gone up. but that's, you know, part of what we are trying to do is normalized or moderate demand, because if we do not do this, right, we are going to have many more problems in the economy going forward. rishaad: there you go, cleveland fed president loretta speaking exclusively with us. we've got bill from square capital management coming up and saying he is expected the fed to push the united states into recession by the year end. this does reflect what is a common narrative now. do not forget jp morgan's jamie dimon talking about a hurricane on the way possibly. we've got the banks in focus, we've got morgan stanley, jp
morgan, they are due before the opening bell in new york. we've got really a very crucial set of numbers coming from -- citigroup is doing it on friday, because it should tell us whether there are cracks forming in the economy ultimately here as well. and they tell us whether u.s. consumers are holding up, i guess. david: look, i guess it depends on which bank is exposed to what, in terms of trading, for example. rishaad: citigroup is more retail oriented. david: deals have in a lot of ways dried up because of the uncertainty over the environment. there was a lot of issuance leading into this and that will reflect part of that. so we will see of course, this all comes to fruition today. jp morgan. morgan stanley. wells fargo of course as we wrap up this week. rishaad: the two morgan's today and city group tomorrow. all right, let's have a look at what we got coming up. we are looking at how the covid pandemic compounded internet poverty. you will be hearing from the
david: markets mixed as you can see. we will talk about that later. in the meantime, let's talk about the concept of poverty. when he think about that concept, it's about people going hungry, lack of material if you will. unable to go to school for example. access to health care. our next guest sees internet poverty, that is a fairly interesting concept, impact the 18% of the global population. rishaad: we have had of course covid, the war in ukraine, and political instability that we have been witnessing that could make things worse. let's bring in senior fellow at the brookings institution in washington. what is internet poverty exactly and is it a first world problem and why should we care? homi: i think internet poverty is the inability of people to afford a basic package of internet services. a world without internet is something that is almost unthinkable. and as the internet society foundation says, every day
without the internet is a day of lost opportunity and so, me and my colleagues at the world data lab have, you know, tried to find what we mean by internet poverty and come up with some numbers about how many people are affected by internet poverty and we concluded it is something like 1.4 billion people around the world facing internet poverty. david: i would imagine indirectly what we are seeing is the cost and access to internet is high, not so much of the company level, but it seems to be down to the list of these countries, the income level of these countries for one. lack of infrastructure also goes into this, doesn't it? homi: yes. it is a fairly simple concept, so there are two issues. if you are very poor, you do not have the money to afford access to the internet. on the other hand, what we see
is that even countries which have been very successful in cutting poverty, a country like china, for example, which proudly declared that they had eradicated extreme poverty. we find that china probably still has a very large number of internet or people, people who civilly cannot afford a basic package of internet services in china because the price of internet services is a high so there are maybe 100 million chinese who are internet poor by our definition. rishaad: so, what we are really arguing is that internet poverty is a massive -- perhaps a register of economic growth at the end of the day? homi: certainly for individuals it is. you cannot participate in the modern economy if you do not have access to the internet we're not talking about broadband, streaming, gaming, things like that. we are talking about the ability to communicate with your community, with your friends, to access some necessary government
services and things like that. and to be aware and you an active aware citizen. david: and the number -- i want to be more specific as it pertains to asia, because a caveat to because there are big economies here, which i guess sort of inflates the overall absolute number. you mention china, india from one also. what would you say are the commonalities as far as problems are concerned across these geographies and what with the solutions b, where would you start? homi: the easiest solution is to work on price. one of the really interesting things is if you take a country like india, india is actually quite a poor economy. it has been growing quite rapidly, but it still has quite a few people in extreme poverty. in quite a few people with internet poverty. it has very low prices.
now, if everywhere in asia, you had the same price structure for internet, adjusted for policy, as you do in india, we could cut internet poverty in asia roughly speaking by half so there are countries like pakistan, like the philippines, like indonesia, where internet poverty in asia is much higher than it needs to be, because of the price phenomenon, rather than because of the incomes of the poorest people. rishaad: homi, do initiatives like project starling from jeff bezos and elon musk move the dial in any way? homi: they certainly can if they affect competition for internet services, market competition obviously will drive down prices. regulators have to play their role. one of the things that i has been interesting to us is that governments used to think about everything digital as being
rather a luxury item and therefore, they liked to tax it. and now, they are starting to understand that actually, this is not a luxury, it's a basic input to a productive citizen. should be made as cheap as possible. in those countries where governments take that approach, internet poverty can come down very rapidly. david: a pleasure to have you on the show. homi out of the brookings institute come alive out of washington. there's plenty more ahead. we will get you a summary of the manic market, moves to scene, a of headlines in the last 60 minutes or so, so stay tuned. you're watching bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: all right, we've got a look at the business flash headlines. got china vanke looking to kick off a hong kong ipo, it's property management norm in september. sources say development unit in the world space tech service plans to range billions of dollars, the biggest ipo in hong kong this year. lithium yesterday. netflix introducing microsoft
word tech and sales partner for its new ad supported streaming service set to launch in the fourth quarter per the absence of ads has been a long time selling point for netflix but slowing growth has forced the streaming giant to look for new ways to reignite revenue growth. they generated $10 million in advertising sales last year. second quarter earnings, delta airlines missing expectations and saying hi operating costs will persist for the rest of your. u.s. carriers are trying to return to consistent tones after the pandemic hammered travel. it still expects meaningful full year of profits ultimately. and of course oil is the biggest one but they got their own refinery. david: yeah, where you don't have refiners are countries like the philippines which are big importers. not so much they did not have it but they do not have the supply that goes into the stuff which takes us into the inflation story, which takes us into this action announced 40 minutes or so ago.
thanks and child taking action looking to anchor inflation expectations and tamper counting risks to the inflation outlook, session lows, third straight days of losses on the philippine composite. flip the boards, please. also surprises out of singapore show you on the chart this is when they basically came out and surprised us with that. an hour before the cash markets opened in singapore. adjusting i think it is the midpoint that they adjusted this time and not so much the range. very confusing of course how they conduct it, but it is what it is. tighter policy, end of the day. and aussie bonds up and it is certainly clear with the data came out. rishaad: absolutely, having a look at overall markets and this is one of the biggest stories is this inversion of the yield curve, the biggest difference between it to send tens now, since the year 2000. 22 years and alarm bells ringing on a possible recession ahead and of course, all of this