tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg July 14, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
a.m. in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets asia, i'm david inglis with rishaad. rishaad: checking on the economy's been fearing amid the covid lockdown in a property market crisis. the problem is under scared -- underscored by home prices over the monthly decline slower than in may. stocks dropping in asia as the dollar holds its gains. australia has a decline in raw materials prices. we are looking at this deluge of data. we are looking at what gdp estimates your at 1.2 percent for second quarter. numbers are lower. we have industrial production and just waiting for the numbers to cross any second now. david: on top of that -- there we go. ok. let's start with gdp year on year, .4%, estimate was for 1.2
to date. practically no growth year on year which translates to a quarter number of almost a contraction of -3%. 2.5% year to date. first and second quarter, and 5.5% is the official target. rishaad: quarter on quarter we have two point 6%. industrial production site mist, 3.9 percent, reaching 4%. we are looking at the 3/10 of 1% with the upside year to date. that is actually retail sales, 3.1% is what we got. david: just to summarize everything, the backward looking gdp numbers were basically very disappointing. the monthly activity numbers, which might indicate the path of recovery and momentum, slightly better as far as sentiment goes
to 4%. he is onset here to help us parse through these numbers. what do you think, you have your terminal up and running? wax indeed. -- >> gdp growth is a big risk. there is marginal uncertainty amongst the number. of this year, 5% growth is out of water. 4% is challenging. you need a very strong recovery in the second half of this year. rishaad: could we get that because of pent-up demand? do you think it's feasible or you think -- or do you think the number kicks both targets out of the path? >> they are part of the zero covid situation, the housing. we mentioned the housing is this situation. if we don't have a strong recovery from here onwards, that's going to be a challenge. david: that seems to be out of
control, because there are things they can do, maybe they could take over some of these projects. but that's a very big exercise to undertake. what you make of this? >> that just highlights the housing was already in a very bad place. the developers already had a bigger cash flow problem and everything, the lockdown made it worse because it really hurt the household confidence. and that is something hard to control for the government. rishaad: we look to residential property sales of 1.8%. we are looking at property investment year to date, year on year. even worse than that, -5.4%. and that goes to what you are talking about. click so far they have a lot of money in the infrastructure. that's easy to come back.
that's a concern. but if you only have infrastructure, it's not enough. you need housing to turn the economy around. but housing is not something the government can fully control because there is the household confidence, which is really the entire situation. so basically we need more support from the government to improve the housing sector. david: in what form with that come? a few days ago the pboc held that first-half briefing and they said about liquidity and they look at interbank. how do we get that to where it's needed? global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- >> i think it's part of the long-term issue of too much debt. essentially, to get out of the situation, china needs this. of the sector, of the banking, so they need to clean up. if you have all these debt issues defaulting and lingering in the background, things cannot move ahead. rishaad: would anybody want to
buy a house at the moment if you've got a declining market? it's the same as deflation. you wait for it to go down further. that's the thing. there's so much noise in it so important because 25%, 27% of gdp. >> it's not just declined markets. you pay for something, you will get it. so, the concern here is, we've got a vicious circle. households, the confidence gets hit, they stop buying and cut down the buying of presale properties and that hurt developers even more. you could see how that goes. let's see, i think the government in real life, there's the gravity of the situation. david: let's look at the drivers of growth. the trade numbers, 100 billion is this surplus already year to date. what does it mean for the currency and what does it provide?
let's say 3.5% above target. >> the trade has been super helpful so far. and the fact that we've got another month of extra growth, it shows there is almost no lasting disruption to the global supply chain from china. but that also highlights the challenge of the second half because it means to growth relies on the external demand, but we all know external demand, the consensus now is that it will slow down significantly because of all the energy issue and the other issues in monetary policy tightening. so that means it will manage to step even more. there is a gap here. and we have some positive signs, but that is not enough. back to the point that the government needs to provide more support. rishaad: we saw what they were doing one week ago when they were trying to borrow money in order to shore up these municipal authorities because of
the property market, they can't tell language is one of their main revenue generators. how bad is the debt situation. we take everything into consideration? >> it's not good. it's definitely not good. we have known this problem for a long time. housing is leveraged to high, local infrastructure, leveraged to high. before the pandemic hit the government was almost on a good path to start addressing this issue. the pandemic disrupted the whole thing. and now they have to use leverage again to support the economy. so, as i mentioned earlier, i think at this point, debt restructuring, bank recapitalization may be as important as stimulus to the economy. david: when do they get the funding for the aggregate financing numbers that we got just for june, we had a very big bump in government funds. does that continue? will that be
apart from the special governments? >> that helps, but to our mind, we think what's needed even more here is for the central government to step out. they need to leverage a central government balance sheet. it's only 20%. it's actually pretty low. they have scope here. per the point about a local government, they have their fiscal position that we can so much out of zero covid lockdown. so they need to chip in. things like issuing special -- or expending the deficit, we think it could be quite likely in the second half given the pressure of the growth. david: have we seen from midyear up until the end of the year, have we seen them change the attack on what the budget deficit target will be? i can't seem to remember the last time they've changed the target in march. >> i don't think there was a
case before. that shows there is a lot of ingrained fisk -- ingrained fiscal conservatism from the government side. they need to overcome their hesitation. with pressure on the economy yielding up that, it's probably now. they had a research and cheaper can't -- and chief economist. just to wrap the data that came through here, interestingly enough on the jobs number, 16 to 24-year-old old the jobless rate. 19% for june. here is the data for you, monthly activity numbers better than estimates. 2q gdp numbers more backwards looking in april and may, we have to take it into consideration. bigness as far as that's concerned. rishaad: i have to talk more
about what was mentioned. this is part of our first word headlines. chinese authorities have held emergency meetings with the banks about the growing numbers of homebuyers refusing to pay their mortgages on store projects. government officials are concerned more buyers may follow suit on mortgage boycotts. regulators have asked the watchdogs to report the financial impact. five of the biggest investment banks of the u.s. will be hit with $1 billion over stock instant messaging apps. regulators have been pricing down whatsapp and personal emails to limit the risk of the conduct. expecting to pay $200 million fine with citigroup's goldman sachs and bank of america believed to be discussions on the similar figure. the federal reserve governor is giving his support for his 75 basis point interest rate hike this month. that's after the inflation report. he could go even bigger if economic data was in his and it could depend on upcoming sales and housing data ahead of the next policy meeting. >> just based on the labor market, i just don't see how
it's inconceivable to have a recession. another great at 3.6%. rishaad: looking at sri lanka, the prime minister handing his resignation to the parliament speaker. arriving in singapore on thursday, having had months of antigovernment protest that left a power vacuum in sri lanka. still occupying government. residents continue to push for new leadership. i should say the president, not the prime minister. that's a look at first word headlines. david: our exclusive interview with the philippine central bank governor. you want to sit -- you want to pay attention to this. we will deliver the off cycle of 75 basis point monster by this time yesterday. just ahead, investment authority, ceo joins us live from the g20 finance ministers central bank session taking place in bali. that's ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: beijing has the national statistics out, fairly depressing numbers coming out of china. we had a big mess when he came to gdp for the second quarter. we had a figure of 4% which was a period of the 1.2% growth we were expecting here. retail sales on the other hand did beat, but every other one was weaker. we've got the national bureau of statistics with cyclical problems. shrinking demand and supply -- the foundation of an economic recovery -- they would say that i would imagine.
also talking about the global economy and stagflation, and risk their are rising. david: that's understandable. growth forecast is falling in akita inflation is nowhere in sight. 9.1 with the u.s., and that she is getting started. what they said about the level, china is moving up a little bit, certainly on food prices there. nothing seems to indicate here anything that talks about that housing markets still, which are being discussed and it's the big if. it's the problem in the economy. mostly, i guess just to recap some of the numbers coming through, the gdp numbers are pointing out that was a big miss because that captures april and may, which april was bad and may was slightly better. but then june was a recovery
with monthly indicators better than estimates. 16 to 24 your -- rishaad: it's crazy. david: they have said employment is a priority, stabilizing employment as a priority. rishaad: not much on the currency front. shanghai compass it recovering and had a drop when this data did come out. let's get over to markets coanchor, hostile in the almond. she is in bali having a look at the g20 and has another important guest with her. house linda: -- haslinda: the g20 finance minister and governors meeting has kicked off against the backdrop of surging inflation. let's get perspective from the indonesian investment authority who joins us here in bali. good savvy with us.
we talk about inflation of 9.1% in the u.s. prompting expectations of 100 basis point hike. have you seen the highest sprint of inflation, do you think? >> i don't think so. i think we are in for maybe much more of volatile times. one is because it was somewhat unexpected. nobody expected a war. as a result, it's a knee-jerk reaction from regulators, from central bank, and consequently from the market as well. did i see the final inflation picture, no. haslinda: central bank may be raising rates by 150 points. is that your own expectation? >> yes, the market is expecting to be a lot higher interest rate
level. that's the reaction that the central bank has been quite cautious right now because the inflation outlook isn't looking very good. house linda: are there things out there you are looking at -- haslinda: are there things out there you are looking at? >> specifically -- specifically for indonesian investment authorities, one is infrastructure, including basic infrastructure and water infrastructure in airports, the second is digital infrastructure, the third thing is health care and energy efficient. we don't actually see much changes on that different focus. we will be quite cautious on the pricing that we pay on what we put together in the instances we are having, but not changes because we are in for a very long time.
haslinda: how are you assessing valuations? are they low enough in what is looking attractive? what might you buy? >> we always look at risk-adjusted returns. obviously right now, risks are inching up. it might have to adjust accordingly as well. what exactly it is, the devil is in the detail. we are looking and relook at every single investment we are making in making sure we adjust according to the situation. haslinda: the target is for $200 billion for a um, for ina, we know recently china has joined the ina. how much more funds is there now given their participation? >> we invested $5 billion to begin with on our own injection
from the government. first quarter, i think we reported 6.7 billion a um. we have signed a commitment about 20 billion right now. the beauty of it is that if we are successful, we will scale up quite quickly and the government will give us more money. so i'm not particularly worried about this. i would like to make it much bigger than this. singapore, a small country like singapore, they have two sovereign wealth fund and 400 billion 500 billion. why is it a country like indonesia aspire to have 200 billion? haslinda: what would you like to see, how much, how big? >> i don't want to put a target. 200 billion from 5 billion has a lot.
but i'm not worried about 200, i'm worried about my 9 billion, my 10 billion. i want to take and make sure that every single thing we do is built on an extremely good government and strong fundamental. haslinda: target for the year and target for next year? surely you could come up with a number. >> probably 10 billion, double and hopeful -- hopefully -- again next year. haslinda: carew to has been in focus and there are talks of emirates taking a stake through ime, could you give clarification or confirmation? >> we don't comment on any deals we have. a lot of deals we have are action related. they are going through scheduling led by the industry.
and we are looking at many other things. but as a single investment, there is extreme confidence in nothing that i could say one way or the other. >> we know that you have been very busy at this meeting. indonesian investment authorities. >> coming from you live from bali. it's not just all work. david: hopefully, in fact, why don't you take the rest of the day off. please, don't give us more work. there is plenty more ahead on the show. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: we are back and having a look at the latest business flash headlines. david: hello. rishaad: ali baba shares dropping back after report the company faces a inquiry over data case. authorities in shanghai summoned executives from ali baba's cloud decision -- division. the private security research included a hacked police database posted on the cloud platform. the company had interest as torstar coming back to asian travel hubs. its u.s. rival mgm resorts recently approached the shareholder, which is the billionaire family on a possible deal. while the discussions did not lead to an agreement, other futures have also been studying the firm, the owner of france retails are expecting for your profit to hit the record over the weaker yen and stronger
sales. they have raised therefore your forecast of ¥290 billion from earlier after 270 billion. all that according to the company statement. david: for retailing and clothing, let's have a look at property right now. chinese property to be exact. difficulties in this sector, and the latest angle is what's happening with mortgage and the boycott and what the banks are saying is no problem as of now, markets are not listening. that's as they continue to get pummeled in the trading. trading below $.80 on the dollar. we are also looking at some of these big semiconductor plays. byob along those lines here. perhaps less with cap x and investments moving. cutting about one third of its plans for next year. they said it will probably spend
towards a little end of the guidance for the end of this year. we end on ali baba five day look and dropping today. rishaad: we are talking about the possibility that the data of one billion chinese residents could've actually been linked. either that something that has been talked of or perpetrator, offering 200,000 u.s. dollars if they wanted to have access to it. david: do the math. the optics don't look good. let's put it that way. if you get called in by the police, it's not good in any jurisdiction. rishaad: we will be having a look at markets and more. this is bloomberg. ♪ psst. girl. you can do better. ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too. at least with your big name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile, you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill, over t-mobile, at&t and verizon.
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as the japanese investors, or i should say market parties that have gone up on a break for an hour so. japan topic members have been boozing the combined forecast, due to the yen weakness, the exports we will see the amount of money they garner outside of the country in yen terms is increasing. yes some news about what is going on in southeast asia. >> we are looking at palm oil to be exact, the lines out of indonesia. june imports up 22%, versus 20%, we should be getting that in a broader context here, the equity market is not doing well, we entered a bear market this week there is some weakness we are seeing today, you would hear from the central bank governor in a bit. in the philippines, on top of the 75 basis points yesterday they signaled they are still prepared to hike rates up
further in their meeting in august. they did no way for that, it is what it is right now. >> is what we're talking out the moment, the yen took an absolute beating overnight, you're talking approaching that psychologically, 140 against the greenback, let's look at the bloomberg dollar index. it hit a record high and the anticipation of the fed next week, the chief asia fx rate strategist, let's take a look at first of all the fed policy here. the broader outlook. >> basically the fed has no way back, given the inflation they have to deliver what -- and leave without further, we are talking about 3.5% height break by the end of the year. that means that there is no way outcome of the stronger dollar against everything, we talk about asia, asia is hiking, philippine surprised yesterday.
no one will hike as fast as the fed. that is going to --. >> against everything there are standouts a senior analysis -- based on your analysis? >> ironically is a safe haven. when hong kong interest rates or to rise faster than the threat -- that -- fed. >> give us your currency pix, not every currency will be hit equally from what is going on. the yen, you have to talk about that. they have had a horrible time of it, it could be eight blessing, valuation -- could be a blessing, valuations help, if that rationale then they would have the stars accompany the world. >> the problem is that it hurts,
imports, japan is a major oil importer. basically talk about the dollar yen is purely about the product if rental. -- differential. two years in japan you get a widening of three-headed 20 basis points -- 320 basis points. where will the dollar-yen go next? it is all about differential. it is the fed, because the fed is versed it as long as they continue to hike, the dolly and will continue to be supported and head towards -- the dollar yen will to continue to be supported. >> 138 on dollar yen. the parity, does not make sense in my head, the absolute numbers of the same. chinese currency, that rate differential, is it trade flows?
>> it a trade surplus. the work concentration was better a month or two months ago, now there's no talk -- another talking about another lockdown. the market is repaired for that, even if they do not look particularly shiny right now eventually will outperform the rest of asia. before the latest number of $100 billion a month, that is crazy given the backdrop of today. over the last 12 months, they have a trade deficit of 800 billion dollars, that is a record high that is crazy. we are -- with that in mind i think the yuan will be relatively stable against rest of asia. >> let's take a look at every single currency is down, the yen is can ultimately the worst one. toggle about the ruby, -- talk
about the rupee. and not sure if it technical, is certainly psychological, was the thinking out there? >> it has surpassed 80 already, meaning -- will go beyond that a record high for the dollar, i know. there is a trade deficit that has been widening. you so i record trade deficit, is hurting india, like japan. the second thing, india, from the look of it has a very high nominal yield. inflation is really low in asia and that will hurt. with the assets will keep in play unless the fed reverses it. >> 80. >> yeah. >> sounds like my grades in
school. >> asia fx rate strategist for bloomberg, taking. -- thank you. >> the central bank governor we talked about earlier -- >> it was this time yesterday absolute came out of left field. i had to read it three or four times because i thought it was a mistake, but it was not. >> it shows that these are times where you cannot wait a couple of weeks. we just talked to him about that, what really went into their thinking and delivering the surprise send five basis point increase -- 75 basis point increase. we had a chat earlier. >> even internally it was not on the table. so you right, what made us do it? of course the they sick reason
-- the basic reason is a spillover effects of other countries. it turns out you are right, canada did 100, right? the u.s. will do 75 or at least 100. that was the overshooting in the 4x market. which will not like to add further to inflation due to the supply shocks. together with our forecast that inflation, if you do nothing inflation could have a range of 4.2. although sing together we had to act -- things together we had to act. >> was part of a decision to move off schedule, the expected weakness of perching -- approaching the fed meeting at
the end of the month. >> yes, yes. we were acting on the basis of what is already happening and what we expect to happen. our view is the fed will raise i at least 75 basis points. july 27th or 28 when they meet. >> understood, i want to understand, the last time we spoke you said august that was a guaranteed rate hike. because it moves yesterday, where's august now? we still hike rates? >> i will not rollout another hike. the need to do is much much less now. >> based on the current scenario , it could change their a lot of factors, based on the information you have now, how high do you think you'll be able to take rates by the end of the year? >> ok.
the thing that gave us comfort, we look at the gdp numbers, demand is very strong. first quarter can strum -- consumption growth was 10%. that was, we think the economy can easily withstand the hike. our current rate is still lower than the forecast inflation rate next year. with that said, the rate is still quite low. we thought we had room to raise it. i still think we have room to raise it depending on the inflation picture. the key to us is increasing the chances that we will have below 4% inflation a year. we cannot guarantee that because
a supply shocks. we are trying to make that is likely is possible. with the recession and advanced countries that will cause the price of commodities to fall we will be able to hit the 4% target next year. >> the philippine central bank governor philippe a talking to david, let's get to the first word news present biden saying the united states will not wait for around to agree to new rules on the nuclear program. biden says tehran nose with the u.s. is going to accept and that he repeated that the u.s. would never let them have a nuclear weapon, -- former president donald trump is returning to washington 18 months of living office to attend a american first summit. it comes as a house committee is
meeting to investigate his role in the capital insurrection. polls suggest that trump's grip on the republican party is loosening ahead of the midterms. there is a national oil encz mark next year to restrict -- national oil benchmark -- the central bank seeking to launch all trading on a national platform, there is also the move to china they have been told chinese officials are proposing an end to a near two-year ban on this trillion coal imports. going about supplies when russian led to on russian energy -- roosting -- boosting fuel supplies to avoid a repeat of last year's powered disruptions. the japanese prime minister announced as many as nine nuclear reactors to be online
this winter after the shutting down during the fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. they are required to go through a rigorous regulatory tests. that is a look at the first word headlines. >> coming up on the show, covid lockdowns, live tv, mortgage payments rattling not just the camera, but the property market, we would discuss with that means for the chinese economy. but it means for markets and homebuyers, that is next this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> welcome back, it is friday, good time to wrap it is been a tumultuous week with this property saga we are starting things off with a recap, and a lot of ways spending data -- spending data out of china and property investments. >> the figures indicating the depths of the problem's we are seeing right now it with regards to property. >> there is nowhere near what we are used to seeing. the decline is one part of the
story. the other one is recently the mortgage boycotts and many of the cities because the reality on the ground, and many of cities see a lot of projects that are experiencing -- because of supply chain forecast low. >> homebuyers stopping home payments at least 100 projects in at least 50 cities this is as of wednesday, it does of course spur off more concerns and deep worries about the quality of home loans and how that is in rapid decline, if you take a mortgage right now it will probably not be constructed. going to some of these banks, the organs risks are controllable. that is an odd stick -- the mortgage risks are controllable it is an odd statement to come out with. >> that came out with a flurry of statements to the stock exchange you understand why, the bonds have been declining of
late and the most recent developed here, the perceived safest developers that are yellow lining on the screen, is $.80 on the dollar. is a broadly -- broader orchids story -- market story. >> tell me a little bit about the financial index. it is having a terrible time with a 11 day losing streak. >> 11 is gold, metals and plus if you want the olympic term if you will, 7.5% on an 8% drop. >> you could argue the property market is olympic leave that as well. earlier we caught up with bill who says there is a range of stressors in the chinese property industry and that the worst may be over with.
with government intervention the state and local levels. >> there is real stress in the property sector, financial stress, new property sales are down very substantially. those financing property companies are feeling the financial pressure not just from the markets but from the customers. that said it looks like we may have bottomed out in some sectors and we are seeing some improvement in property sales and and home prices. we are beginning to hear some of the initiatives the government has been taking both at a local and national level to keep the property market afloat to not let it collapse in a calamitous way. while pressures are acute, we do not have very large exposure ourselves. is enough to feel, but not enough to hurt us. we are paying close attention, but we are seeing it. >> we have to talk about the
zero covid policy. have you seen the flow of talent from china to hong kong in particular to singapore? >> there is clearly been some movement, the people more inclined to move have been ex-pats both in china and in hong kong. over the last year or so we have had more ex-pats come into hong kong then leave. that is not to say has not been very tough for all colleagues in hong kong. ex-pats or locals. digs are loosening up and the government is very determined to make it easier to get in and out of the country the quarantines it -- the quarantine regulations have been drop significant. while onerous for travel, my colleagues are moving regularly now and that is not a significant normalization as we look forward to the rest of the year. china is a little bit further
behind as they battle with the dynamics zero covid code -- policy. the opportunities in china so great they will not bill to keep the ex-pats or local talent away. the opportunities to do some really good things and china are as great as ever. >> for our friends there that is your boss, speaking exclusively. >> the u.s. friday opening bell, we of course had morgan stanley and jp morgan as well yesterday. we have citigroup, wells fargo out. they're coming out as well. we mentioned the to morgan's they had a plunge in investment banking revenue particularly thinking revenue with morgan stanley -- banking revenue with morgan stanley. >> was get the details of this, any common themes, the big banks have reported so far? >> they are talking about
recession, that appears to be the theme coming jp morgan with buybacks to build up capital reserves, 428 billion reserves -- million reserves. banking fees more on the plus side, big upturn in trading revenue. everyone is focused on outlook. let's hear what ceo jamie dimon had to say. >> there is a range of potential outcomes. from a soft landing to a hard landing driven by how much rates go up, effective quantitative tightening, effective volatile markets, will not change how we run the company. we minister a recession before and we will manage through a recession again. >> he is the one that said there is hurricane clouds and storm clouds on the horizon, he is
telling everyone to get ready. >> give us a sense of morgan stanley, find $200 million for the misuse of devices, using messages -- messaging apps like whatsapp and emailing that is contrary to policy and is not apropos. >> they will pay 200 million we are also finding all the biggest five banks will be hit with a combined total $1 billion and finds -- find from this. the revenue drop grab the headlines, driven by a marked market loss. this is the credit spreads widened, the trading unit helped offset some of the decline in income trading in the investment trading decline. strong results in stock trading and bond income did offset some,
here that is up, some big misses as we are looking for 1.2% growth year, retail sales to compete. >> -- took a beat. >> indicative if you look at the latter half of the month activity numbers, june was the recovery, they had locked down, may was in between the set up momentum going to august. .4% is almost no growth it is almost -- it is quite a contraction on a quarter by quarter basis. >> chief china economist, crunching the numbers saying the gdp number was only 2.5%, to reach the government number of 5.5% need to have average a .5% growth in the second half -- 8.5 percent growth in the second half which is extremely unlikely. >> a big hole, probably when the
reasons you see pressure in the bond markets. onshore, on the mainland, ultimately to take note some of the contracts are getting the price dispersion. the trend has been down for many of these, the bloomberg commodity spot index is now on track for a seventh weekly decline that ties the longest losing streak 7, 7, 7 a couple of years ago. >> with statistics, trade is a bright spot after that quarterly data came out as well. we have stocks, we'll see what was going on here hang seng at the moment in the mix naturally. a decline of three quarters of 1%.