tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg July 20, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT
europe. these are the stories that set your agenda. a sea of green. stock and futures climb after the s&p 500 has its best day in three weeks. netflix surges after the market does better than expected. d-day for draghi. the prime minister faces lawmakers with the future of the government and the balance. we are live from rome. energy maneuvers. gas exports resume from nord stream as the eu plans a voluntary 15% cut in demand. we are getting breaking news on earnings, starting with asml, the maker of chip equipment. third quarter net sales, the estimate has been downgraded or at least is lower than estimated. 5.1 billion euros at the low end to five point 4 billion at the
high-end, nearly one billion under the estimate. the estimate was 6.5 billion. the issue, gross margin estimate is off. the estimate was 53.5%, at the high end they see 50 percent. it is all about supply chain snarls and costs. other chipmakers like tsmc, micron morning about demand. -- warning about demand. part of the reason sales will look weaker for asml, they were able to beat net sales on the second quarter but the gross margin was a slight mist, 49 point five. the estimate, that was the estimate and the actual margin was 49.1. other earnings coming in, volvo cars, the second quarter revenue is amiss. the estimate was 74, 45 billion krona, came in at 71.
second-quarter retail sales declined 27%, operating income as well. that looks stronger. a pretty large be down there margin which is rare for companies struggling with costs. ebit margin, had been 70 -- 7.2% area they warned about their china sales so perhaps that is part of the reason for the myths. i know there is a lot here but this is the paint maker saying second-quarter results are impacted by lockdowns in china. they did have a miss for the second-quarter adjusted operating income. a lot of corporations, a lot of moving parts, overall costs are in focus. that is what i will be speaking about with executives from akzonobel and volvo cars. a lot to digest for this market. let's dive into it because we
are looking at stocks that have rallied again. i have a little volvo car preview. stock continuing to rally in futures, the biggest gain in s&p 500 stock cash market. a gain of 0.5%, u.s. 10 year yields unchanged. we got selling and treasuries moving away from havens, moving away from the dollar, above 3%. euro-dollar and sterling getting bids this morning, both central banks, people telling bloomberg ecb might go 50 basis points. that was out yesterday morning. the bark at -- the market is split on whether it will do that or stick with 25. u.k. inflation data comes later. i want to pause on yesterday's session in the u.s. because it was massive, 90 8% of stocks in
the s&p 500 rallied yesterday. we had the report from bank of america said we reached full capitulation. perhaps investors feel they missed the dip and they are rushing in. the gain in the s&p 500. twitter had a strong day, able to get the trial date set against elon musk for what they wanted. it will be a sped up trial. it will be more about the merger agreement itself versus fact-finding about bots, which is what elon musk wanted. twitter rally in the most 3%. ibm's biggest decline since october 2021. earnings hit hard by the dollar and the loss of sales in russia. those stories coming together to create a toxic mix. netflix post market, they lost subscribers but it wasn't as bad as expected, about half as bad as people assumed it would be. they talked about restoring growth, putting ads on the platform.
those shares, up nearly 8%. there is a look at european and u.s. markets. juliette saly is in singapore. she has an update on asian markets. >> we are writing on the back of optimism from wall street. the expectations, have we seen the worst of the equity route? we have been asking that to guests on asian programming and most say perhaps we have. that is driving regional stocks along with the weaker dollar. the ms ci having its best day in a month. the focus is on hang seng tech players after wall street journal's report that perhaps didi will be hit with a fine and that could wrap up the probe into the company and signal an end to the tech crackdown. netflix numbers, a lot of korean drama studios up by 5%. a stronger yen ahead of the boj decision tomorrow where they are
expected to hold pat. let's see what chinese banks did. we didn't see easing from the pboc this month and chinese lenders have kept their loan prime rates unchanged. we saw mortgage boycotts prompting a reduction in the five-year but both the left unchanged. there is an easing come -- coming through in the lockdowns, activity picking up in china. there is less lead -- need for easing. dani: juliette saly there in singapore. let's get to other top stories. we are focused on europe. francine is in rome come bearing -- covering the day for mario draghi. we are looking ahead to the ecb meeting. italian politics, a crucial day. the coalition government could collapse. last week marg yelled draghi's -- mario draghi's resignation was rejected.
he will tell the senate whether he is prepared to stay in office. let's get to francine. is today the day we find out if draghi resigns? >> it is the day were the ecb is saying will he or will he not resign? we expect two speeches in both houses. it is unclear how much support he has to stay in power. many in the government, many allies begged him to stay. many european leaders want him to stay because that makes the job of the ecb easier, but you have the five-star movement, not all of them but mr. contact asking for certain content -- concessions. mario draghi said he would resign so it is unclear if today we will find out but we hope to know more. we know his speech, what it is on. whether they vote, and whether he is willing to stay on. dani: thank you so much.
we will be back with fran shortly. we are covering the latest and italy. central bankers globally are grappling with rate decisions to stem rising inflation. historic hikes are increasingly on the cards. boe governments had the bank is weighing a half went hike. some are predicting a steeper 50 basis point rise from the ecb. we are joined by a reporter. what does pricing look like? what do economists say on the chances we get the half-point hike, ecb decision day tomorrow. >> the markets are pricing a little more than 25 basis points, not 50. that gives you some idea that there is uncertainty as to what the ecb is doing. some economists have brought
forward, or have raised their expectations for what is happening tomorrow to 50 basis points after reports from numerous people that the 50 basis point hike is on the table. will it happen? we don't know but there is a lot of evidence that they will move because of inflation, which is running at 8.6% in the euro zone and heading higher, towards 10%. forecasts show it is not reaching all the way back to 2% until 2024. that is one reason for that ecb to consider a bigger move. it was specific. changing their mind at the last minute is going to raise questions. dani: it might raise the
prospect of spreads with italy and germany widening further. what does it mean for the new anti-fragmentation tooled the ecb is unlikely to unveil or likely to unveil tomorrow? >> if this is a real option, what they are looking for, the pressure to get the tool ready and show it to investors is that much higher. we heard them redoubling efforts , getting something ready to present after tomorrow's meeting. there are lots of sticking points that people are still talking about what the tool should look like, what conditionality to attach, how to make sure it doesn't interfere with the ecb's monetary policy.
what to buy, when to buy. they have made progress since the last meeting but there are still loose ends that need to be tied up and they are starting the meeting today, and they surely have a full agenda. dani: we have the news also that the nord stream pipeline likely to open, likely to flow gas into europe. perhaps that will change things. there are questions as to what that will be. i want to recap what we learn from asml because this is a pretty significant beat coming from the chipmaker, third quarter net sales at the hyatt -- the high end of the range. 5.4 billion euros, the estimate was 6.4 billion. that is more than one billion euros off what they thought. for full-year sales it will be half my a 10% growth. they had seen 20%.
why are things ugly? they talk about customers, demand slowing, some indication of that and consumer driven market segments. they know that because of shipment issues, some of their revenue will be delayed to 2023, hence why there is a big bite out of their outlook for the full year. that is the earnings picture. let's look at other key things we will be watching today. 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, canada's reading after the 100 basis point hike from the boc. 3:00 p.m., u.s. existing home sales figures and results of a consumer confidence survey for the euro area followed by 3:30 p.m., the crude oil inventory report and later, 10: 30 pm, ev maker tesla posts second-quarter earnings. we will dive into the markets with an investment technology cio and founder. that interview, coming up.
dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: asia europe. stocks are extending their rally in the futures session after the cash markets biggest jump since june. that bounce came as bank of america's monthly fund manager survey said global growth optimism is at an all-time low. they flagged its capitulation, exposure to risk assets is lower than the global financial crisis. how do we distinguish whether this week is another bear market rally, or the end of the bear market? let's dig into it with the chief
investment -- great to have you on. you have been positioned defensively for some time. how do you interpret whether the bear market is over? once we know it is over it is -- is it too late to jump back in? >> it won't be too late to jump in at that point. traditionally, when big events like this happen you have time. you can do as many do like yesterday, jump in with a little bit and try to capture the bottom, or you can do like we do, wait on -- a little longer until fundamentals are in place. then we move from 20, 30, 40% equities until 70, 80, 90. when you look at jumping in in april or may or june in 2020, it didn't prove to be too late. i don't think there is a rush to
get in, but it is true, things are improving. primarily central banks appear to have inflation expectations up. that is positive. that probably helps. there is able market mentality. dani: if the central bank is finally able to do that, it has been a difficult past two years for once reliable strategies, whether they think 60-40 or stock selection strategies. what does that mean for the environment going forward and the viability of a lot of funds that have been hit by a u.s. bear market and the worst year on record for bonds? >> it is the worst for bonds and also the third year in a row when safe bonds are going down. we have opened the third year where and bonds are giving negative returns. in real terms it is a bear
market for many bonds, government bonds. that means the future is much brighter for a 60-40. doesn't matter if it is 60 bonds or the other way around, and for systematic strategies like ours because the idea is that bonds should give you a return. if the ecb over times in the fed over times, if the economy rolls over, you would be able to capture a decent return in bonds now. the u.s. 10 year gives 3%. it is easier to do that then when it gives 1%. the old-school investment, the modern works better now. from a balance point of view, the world is in a better situation. it is a better time to be a balanced or dynamic investor. it hasn't been a pleasant last six months.
>> some of these human risks are still present, still a threat. i wonder how you think about things like the possibility of severely reduced flows from nord stream, italian politics volatility, how you look at those things and factor them into a systematic strategy. >> they get factored in automatically in a strategy like ours. the european bond market reacts and we see the reaction. when companies stop making money, you had a chipmaker that didn't see the flow they helped -- they hoped and the orders, it goes into the capture of the global news flow and the factual data. of course, the situation in europe, one reason we are defensively positioned and we might change that, but one reason is that ecb has a balance where for them it is more important to get inflation down
then to get a balance. they have humiliated themselves. dani: just jumping in, i know you have scaled back on your overweight dollar this week. we have seen the euro yesterday rally versus the greenback. at what point is it not just scaling back, overweight's becoming bearish? >> if the ecb does 52 times we get a huge recession in europe and there is no reason to be positive. if the danger is that the central bank gets carried away because it is going ok, remember last time when the fed got to 200 half -- two and a half? the whole thing rolled over. the risk is that the central banks think they need to tighten more than they need and they put us into a recession. dani: mads peterson, founder at human edge investment technology. coming, second-quarter earnings. this is bloomberg.
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dani: tell you reported second-quarter net sales that matched estimates. the telecom company says it is expecting services revenue and adjusted to grow by low single digits. joining us is the ceo. thanks for joining us. you see the same 22 -- 2022 outlook. talk about the product mix. where is the growth engine going to be coming from? >> we are seeing good solid broad-based growth across the footprint, particularly in our core business, growing 2.5%. mobile is growing 4.5% and we are seeing growth in all our markets for the first time in a long time.
it's a really solid mobile growth. also seeing very solid growth in our advertising business. we have mtv and tv four in sweden and finland. they had its best quarter and all-time records. strong advertising and a real demand for some of these more advanced security services. dani: are folks willing to pay up for that? are you seeing any pressure on the inflationary costs from it? >> we definitely see inflation and pressure in our own cost space and energy inflation impacted by 100 million kroner in the quarter. we are not seeing an impact from our customers. our services are very good value for money. broadband connection is only two cappuccinos per week.
as people increasingly work from home, the cost of a broadband connection is similar to what it is to cost you to drive to work two days a week and take lunch outside. great value for money and it is households and enterprises that increasingly need to be connected with the most trusted, reliable services. our investment into 5g and private networks, advanced analytical solutions, are helping some of our larger customers pivot with the sustainable digitalization. what we saw in the quarter is real interest in our private networks, our enterprise networks. dani: i love this because i measure money in the form of cappuccinos and food and lunches. i do wonder, you mentioned the cost pressures you are facing.
where are those cost pressures in terms of inflation the most acute for you? where are you feeling the most pain? >> energy inflation. dani: are you hedged? what is your strategy combating that? >> we are hedged for the rest of the year. we are generally hedging 70% that we hedged during the year and 12 months out. we are also investing in new ways to reduce the energy burden going forward. we entered into two ppis, one in denmark to build a solar park and in estonia, we are investing in wind farms. dani: about 30 seconds here. i'm going to jump in. do you see more consolidation coming from the nordics?
>> i think most of our markets are great markets with good competition. i think we are more focused on how we roll out next-generation networks and give the broadest wave of digital service to help our customers in the journey ahead towards sustainable digitalization. i'm not focused on consolidation apart from the danish market. but the rest of our footprint is strong. dani: great to catch up with you this morning. ceo of telia. the eu, targeting a reduction psst. girl. you can do better. ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too. at least with your big name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile, you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill, over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. wow. i can do better.
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europe. i'm dani burger in london and these are the stories that set your agenda. stocks and futures climb after the s&p 500 has its best day in weeks. netflix surges aftermarket on better-than-expected subscriber numbers. the italian prime minister faces lawmakers today with the future of his government and the balance. we are live in rome. plus, energy maneuvers. the eu plans a voluntary 15% cut in demand. hopes that nord stream will resume flow, all of that plus a report from bank of america saying we hit full capitulation certainly has the market in the mood for taking a bit of risk yesterday. 98 percent of equities rallied yesterday for the best day in s&p 500 since june. so that also was lifted by
netflix post-market having better earnings. that also meant some of the demand for the havens like the u.s. 10 year was diminished. it is selling again. we are still above 3%. we also sell -- saw selling of the greenback. that was supported by reports that the ecb is considering 50 basis points come tomorrow. that is a big change. they have been saying 25 for some time now. perhaps the parity with the dollar caught some attention. finally, sterling is also higher this morning. we had andrew bailey talking about the possibility of 50 basis points. all of that means the dollar declining. back to the gas story, the eu is set to propose a voluntary 15% cut in natural gas used by member states. the continent will face many
challenges. gazprom will restart gas exports to europe thursday, but at reduced capacity. joining us now is the deputy director at the berlin office of the german marshall fund of the united states. thank you so much for joining us. i want to start with the latest coming out of russia. putin saying the pipeline will resume, however there is one question about a turbine part coming from canada. whether that is used as a pretext for slowing flows down. how do you interpret that and the likelihood that nord stream will come back on line? >> yes, berlin has really been in suspense for the last 10 days because nord stream 2 in was due for maintenance work and there was a question about whether the gas would be turned back on after the maintenance work, which is scheduled to finish this thursday, but at the end of
the day, the germans have decided to wean themselves off natural gas. last year before the war started , 55% of natural gas came from russia and that raised a red flag for germany. allies had called germany out on it for many years, but germany continued to call nord stream 2 and nord stream one commercial projects. nord stream one never came online after the war started and the germans are now ready to dissociate themselves from russia when it comes to energy dependency. dani: we saw the eu budget commissioner talk about that they are preparing for the scenario where gaskets cut off. the estimates or something like 1.5% of german gdp taking a hit because of that. how should policymakers be responding to such a scenario to ensure that there is not too much pain in the short term? >> i think really germany was
caught flat-footed when it came to the energy dependency with russia. they were in the midst of doing an energy transformation. the come -- country wants to get to clean energy. they were ok with using natural gas as it urging technology, but now that that is off the table, even the energy minister is looking to put coal plants back online to stabilize energy prices. consumers are looking at a tripling in terms of energy bills this winter and domestic energy costs are up by 70% already this year. dani: talk to me about the political upheaval that that causes. we see political upheaval also in italy. what happens when consumers are facing these kinds of costs? how does that translate into leadership? >> right now the coalition
against russia, sanctions against russia are standing. but disinformation from russia, other political actors to so mistrust within the electorate so that the politicians begin to perhaps water down actions against russia in terms of heavy weaponry delivery, stronger sanctions, this could all reduce the cohesion and we all seem to think this could be a protracted fight into the winter with the war against ukraine. ukraine does not have a lot of time and needs all the support it can get right now. dani: what would that protracted fight look like in terms of the attention of the world to it if it drags on? what happens in that scenario? >> i think on both sides of the atlantic, you are looking at unstable democracies in europe.
look at italy. mario draghi is fighting for his life there. germany right now is also trying to placate very worried voters about high energy costs and inflation above 8% and then there are the u.s. midterm elections. we don't know how that will go. 18 house republicans voted against the nato a session of finland and sweden. western cohesion has been very strong thus far, but with electorates worried about inflation costs at the gazprom, we don't know how long the support can be sustained and it is key to give ukraine the support it needs right now because in the long run, russia has a stronger military resources and they have time on its hands though ukraine has done so well in of the battleground thus far and needs the heavy weaponry so that it
can push back russian advances in the east. dani: i know this is more of a long-term story, but we have seen this remarkable change in the german posture toward spending another military. more commitments there. talk to us about how big of a seachange this is for german policy. >> after the war started at the end of the february, chancellor olaf scholz gave a speech and the bundestag for a so-called turning point in germany and people were surprised that germany decided right away to commit to the 2% goal of nato spending on defense, to cut trade ties with the current russia, and to go on this energy revolution of independence. so it was a very strong speech but the question is -- it has taken longer for germany to perhaps advance its military so that it can send supplies to russia.
the fear is perhaps still there in the german government about moving too fast because the country perhaps wasn't ready to make these changes. the war in ukraine has accelerated a lot of changes, but this is a country that is used to the status quo and not use to speed. i think that is why it is proving harder to make these changes that all of schulz called for at the end of february. dani: and i've seen suggestions that one way to curb gas demand is putting a speed limit on the autobahn. maybe not even that is safe. thank you for joining us. let's get to our top stories with the first word news with juliette saly in singapore. >> the european central bank may go big one it raises interest rates thursday for the first time in more than a decade. bloomberg has learned policymakers may boost rates by
double the quarter-point they outlined last month. eurozone inflation has surged to an all-time high. money markets see an almost 50% chance of a half-point hike. the chinese premier has signaled some flexibility in chinese growth targets. the priority would be to keep employment and prices stable. economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter due to covid lockdowns. many economists suggest china will miss its growth target this year. some suppliers to chinese real estate developers are refusing to repay bank loans because of unpaid bills owed to them, the latest sign that the loan boycott that started with homebuyers is starting to spread. hundreds of contractors complained they can no longer afford to pay their own bills because developers including china evergrande owed them
money. conservative members of parliament will decide which two candidates face-off in the battle to replace boris johnson as uk prime minister. the foreign secretary is the favorite to join rishi sunak on the final ballot. billionaire investor says the recent turbulence in the cryptocurrency sector is a full-fledged credit crisis. speaking at the bloombergquint summit, he acknowledged he was wrong about the magnitude of leverage in the system while also calling out regulators for not doing enough to protect investors. he said the worst is over and he expects bitcoin to surge. >> what i don't think people expected was the magnitude of losses that would show up and
professional institutions' balance sheet and that caused the chain of effects. it turned into a full-fledged credit crisis with complete liquidation and huge damage to confidence in the space and to the infrastructure of the space. >> global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: juliette saly in singapore. coming up, all eyes earned to rome -- turned to rome. a crucial address by mario draghi later this morning. will his government survive? here in the italian capital with francine lacqua next. this is number. ♪
dani: welcome back. i'm dani burger in london. prime minister mario draghi is due to address lawmakers later this morning. francine lacqua is standing by in an idyllic scene in rome closely following the developments. [laughter] francine: yes, idyllic, but very, very hot. dani: don't talk to me about hot, francine. [laughter] francine: yes, i know every we do have air conditioning at
times. i'm delighted to be joined by the democratic already mp who simplifies things so everyone can understand politically what is going on. thank you so much for joining us. there is a lot going on today. does mario draghi resign or not resign and doesn't put italy in an economic crisis if he does? >> we will have a confidence vote today and i think he will have the majority, even if it might be that it is not the same majority as before, but a smaller majority. why i think it is important to keep supporting mario draghi because italy needs to do two important things by the end of the year to complete the milestone for the national recovery plan for money coming from europe and also for the budget flow. we need to give a sign of attention. inflation and rising cost of living.
that is what we need to do. that is what i believe the prime minister will tell us in parliament today. francine: is it going to be a coalition of the right? >> well, we have elections next spring. we cannot keep postponing it, but it is important for the government to finish its agenda which was agreed to years ago. there will be a coalition of the right. we think it is very diverse and very fragmented because one part is outside the government, the other part is supporting draghi. we wonder how they will keep together and having a different view on what needs to be done now. dani: and what will that --francine: and what will the relationship he like with the eurozone? >> i think half of it is understood that you cannot govern a country against europe.
that is the main lesson from the first government of this legislature. they tried to have italy go against europe, but they did not succeed. why maloney has an alliance with all of the parties and governments, we wonder how they will manage to govern having a different idea of europe. francine: is there a danger that mario draghi leaves today even if he has the majority to stay as prime minister and what does that danger mean for markets? >> i think all of us including mario draghi have been really surprised by the incredible support he got, 2000 mayors signed the position -- petition for him to stay.
the solidarity movement, enterprises. europe said that he needs to stay in government until the end of the legislature. i think it is difficult for him to say that he has to go in to play a part that is not his part. he is the responsible one and everyone is asking him to stay. francine: it is up to him, right? >> he has been very honest. he called for a unity government and possibly the unity is not there any longer. so he said, i think my job is done. the country is asking him to stay, europe is asking him to stay, so i think he will stay. francine: how difficult or how we can will mario draghi be even if he stays in power today? >> i think he will make clear what he wants to do. any crisis moment is important
so you reset your priorities. i think today will be a day when we reset i already's and focus on things that need to be done, including budget flow and the reforms that need to unblock the next tranche for the recovery plans. francine: and will he manage? >> i think so. if today parliament is dismantled and we go to elections, the low will not pass. otherwise before summer break, we will pass the law and we will get a short of the next tranche. francine: thank you so much for joining us read with that, back to you in london. plenty more from very sunny rome throughout the day. dani: thank you so much. francine lacqua from rome. we will get back to her throughout later programming. 50 basis point still on the table ahead of another painful
>> the 50 basis point increase. it will be among the choices on the table when we next meet. but it is not locked in. dani: the bank of england governor making clear a jumbo hike is still on the table next month. we also have inflation data due and it could see rice hikes gain . daily hit back against attacks from conservative politicians, saying the central bank upon sin dependence is more important than ever. let's get more from lizzy burden. we got the data soon.
what is that all going to mean for the boe? >> the bank of england will be watching how much inflation spread not just in food and fuel, but into services as well. if it is broad and strong, it will buttress the case for the 50 basis point rate hike. you heard andrew bailey say that 50 is on the table. it is not locked in, but perhaps he doth protest too much. inflation has not peaked yet in the u.k. it is heading toward double digits when energy bills are set to rise in the fall. what andrew bailey said last night is that inflation will fall rapid next year below target in 2023 and it will hit the target in 2023 and then below target eon that. dani: alongside bailey was the chancellor. what was his message?
>> unlike some of his conservative colleagues, he was much more conciliatory and tone about the bank of england and he had an opportunity to clash with the boe on financial services regulation, but he did not take it. the government wants these call in powers where it can veto financial services regulations that are independently set, which would bolster post-brexit powers, but the government is not taking that at the moment. instead, it is going to wait until there is an prime minister and chancellor, although rishi sunak, who is running to be the next pm, is said to be in favor of these. dani: we've got to have you on talking about the current race for the next tory party leader. what are we expect in? >> it is a race to be who goes against rishi sunak in the final
two. it comes down to how the votes get reallocated. expect her votes to go to lose trust. the centrist went out. not all of his votes went to rishi sunak. it raises the question about how much tactical voting is going on. historically in these leadership contests that is what has meant that people like michael haseltine have lost out to lesser-known figures. interestingly even if it is rishi sunak or one of the two, sooner -- rishi sunak has shown he won't win, so he has six hard weeks of campaigning to end up as pm. dani: that is bloomberg's lizzy burden. we are looking at equity markets
that continue to rally. have we finally seen folk capitulation? that is what the latest bank of america investor survey says. this could be a very good. it is that contrarian signal that finally the bearishness has been washed out. 98% of stocks rally, but is that just another bear market rally? is it only a tactical rally? that is it for bloomberg markets era. i'm sticking around and mark cudmore will join for markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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