tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg August 2, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
rishaad: almost 10:00 a.m. in hong kong and beijing and nearly 3:00 a.m. right here in london. this is bloomberg markets. yvonne: our top stories, u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi becomes the highest ranking u.s. politician to visit taiwan in 25 years. she is set to meet their president shirley this hour. china ramping up the trip with its most provocative action in decades. beijing is planning military drills while halting trade with taipei. fed officials push back against the notion they could pivot away from tightening, saying the battle against inflation is far from over. david: it is probably the underlying force that is driving a big part of the market. really when you look at the fx markets and where we have come from these last few hours on that massive route in treasury
yields, reversing somewhat, but that fourth column, asia-pacific is playing a lot of catch-up. the second column is still very strong with the exception of a few equity markets are stable. it takes us into the taiwan story. we are down a third straight day. a lot is happening this hour. yvonne: expect -- we are expecting that talk. it will be one to watch. that presser will be happening closer to 11:00 taipei time. a lot could happen but when it comes to markets, not much fanfare or fireworks leading up to this trip because it seems at this point we have not seen any big moves from china. yes we have seen some military exercises but i think we avoided the worst case scenario. rishaad: absolutely. we talk about the fed pivot, trying to change the narrative. fed officials fighting the market.
geopolitics the alpha once more. nancy pelosi shaking the tree with that visit. china encircling the island, setting the stage for arguably some of its most provocative actions in decades. that is the position for some assets we have. chinese dollar below the 2020 level. we have the treasury market and focus. talking about that with fed officials fighting investors. helping to trigger a surge in yields, reminding traders they are in for the long haul in the fight against inflation, and don't think they are going to reverse course early next year. david: absolutely. mr. bullard was the latest to chime in and say to your point, we will be here for at least some time. and that narrative that the fed was about to turn, to your point, the bottom of your screen, 18 basis points in the
10 year yield. that has only happened six times in the last 10 years or so. yvonne: this was something the market kind of created, this fed pivot. yes, they took the words from jay powell saying maybe the hikes would be less aggressive and it could slow down later this year, then they went to the races with. this wishful thinking, you have the likes of mary daly, jim bullard, really pouring cold water on it, hence the massive volatility we are seeing across the bond markets. rishaad: stephen engle in hong kong with you guys. what's the mood there like, what has the reaction been like? betty: so, the planned drills by china is by far the most serious military action for the past two decades. this warning, taiwan's defense
military put out a statement condemning china's action, saying that these drills will put a serious threat to taiwan sports and urban areas. an taiwan's ruling party right now also stated that no matter how hard china wants to put military actions on taiwan, taiwan will be determined to push for its democracy and sovereignty among the international society. so i think the sentiment here is definitely rising a little bit. i think this whole story was not be top story for taiwan over the weekend but it has raised more attention and is on the top of the radar right now for people in taiwan. yvonne: in terms of the chinese response, what is your take? stephen: kind of expected. essentially the vice foreign minister put out a statement saying the u.s. must pay for
mistakes. they put out a lengthy statement saying, and i will read it, china will take all necessary measures to resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, among other things that they had said. obviously they had been preparing for this visit, as you see last night in her pink power suit, nancy pelosi arriving at the airport in the middle of taipei. and we are awaiting her meeting within this hour with the president. they are going to have lunch. she might also have a meeting with tsmc, a very strategic dialogue. china's response has been announcing six different exclusion zones which will be put into place as of tomorrow and run through sunday at least. there will be military drills within those six exclusion zones. one of the more recent times back in 1995 in response to the
first number chronically elected president going to the united states, china also have these exclusion zones which did disrupt shipping lanes and air travel, so that could put more pressure on supply chains. again, the analysts we have spoken to say that china short of any kind of direct military attack would be more likely to employ these gray zone tactics to further isolate taiwan, further isolate taiwan diplomatically and economically. so you can see a number of different measures they have taken to ban exports of natural soil, or sand. which is used in manufacturing. then they will stop buying citrus fruits as well as some fishing products. david: i mean, this map that they put out on where -- i am supposed to look at the camera.
sorry. why not, we are on tv. this map they put out really shows you the encirclement where the military drills are supposed to take place. i think they put out advice that if aircraft and ships basically avoid the areas for safety. can you talk more about, in case our viewers missed it, what has been announced as far as economic measures? stephen: china will halt natural sand exports to taiwan from today. used for semi conductor manufacturing, for construction projects and the like. they did that as well into thousand seven when there were diplomatic issues and then taiwan turned to the philippines to buy natural sand. there also banning citrus fruits from taiwan, also some fish. this comes after a couple years ago china banned the import of taiwanese pineapples. but again, taiwan turned to the
philippines for the pineapple market to sell pineapples. so they are going to take these economic measures. what is interesting going forward the next few days is going to be how intense will be these live fire military exercises and also as cctv has reported that as of last night, they have already started joint air force and navy exercises around taiwan, were in the taiwan straight. so there will be these kind of moves by the chinese pla. but bring up the other map that we have where we saw nancy pelosi's flight to taiwan last night. it avoided those hotspots. it avoided any miscalculation or any potential live fire exercises impacted -- impacting nancy pelosi's plan. it did not fly through the nine dash line or the south china sea that china claims, or the taiwan straight. it went the long way around over
borneo and east of the philippines, straight into taiwan. rishaad: so much so that actually caused a flight radar to collapse, 300,000 people looking at the route. let's get back to the streets of taipei. what can we really expect from nancy pelosi's meeting? is it purely the optics more than anything else? and where else is she going? betty: that is a really good question. in terms of policies meeting, nobody knows exactly what they are going to discuss. it is a closed meeting with only a very brief briefing afterwards, leading only very few media to access. after the meeting, policy is scheduled to leave -- meet with human rights activists in the afternoon. she is also reported to meet with the tsmc chairman before
she leaves taiwan and heads for seoul for her next schedule in asia. david: betty hou there. and here with us in our studio, stephen engle. you can keep on top of the story on your terminals. tliv , commentary, analysis, and lots of big events that are set to take place and we will cover them for you. yvonne: fed officials want to see strong evidence inflation is on a sustainable downward path before declaring victory. the san francisco fed president, loretta mester, and charlie evans all hinted the fed still has a way to go on reaching price stability. with consumer prices rising 9.1% in june, mr. says slower growth may be necessary to control inflation. >> we don't talk about recession per se. it is, are we growing below or above trend.
and my forecast for this year is we will be going -- growing low trend that is necessary in order to get price increases, inflation, under control. yvonne: the u.s. is moving ahead with a plan that could slash the time traders have to report bond transactions to one minute from 15. two key financial regulators are jointly asking for comments on the proposal, in an initial step that also includes the securities exchange commission. gary gensler said the reduction could bring more transparency to the market. a study in israel shows hospital workers who got a fourth dose of pfizer's vaccine were far less likely to get covid. health-care workers who got the fourth shot in january showed a 7% rate of breakthrough infections compared with 20% of those with three doses. the findings of the latest to confirm the benefits of a second booster against breakthrough omicron cases. president biden has chosen an
official to lead u.s. monkeypox response efforts. robert fenton, a regional administration for fema, will be the white house's monkeypox response coordinator. rising case numbers have prompted california and illinois to join new york to declare the outbreak an emergency. total infections across the u.s. rose to a global high of over 5800 on monday. and those are your first word headlines. rishaad: all right. still to come, sebastian discussing how geopolitical tensions slowed and are all taken their tool on taiwan's semi conductor industry. next, we looking at china's path to recovery amid a host of issues. we are going to be joined by iris paying. on top of that, the latest on nancy pelosi's visit to taipei. we have her confirmed as visiting and talking with their
iris pang had a forecast of 53.5. she joins us to talk about this. we have the complete pmi numbers now. manufacturing losing momentum, services picking up. do those two trends continue. iris: for services, i think especially for caixin services, the survey respondents are smaller shops, smaller catering businesses. we returned to business after lockdowns, so this is kind of an expected recovery. but for manufacturing, it is a different story. because it involves a lot of exports and domestic and the manufacturing of the goods may be a high ticket item, for example, like smart devices. those are not really rebounding in terms of demand because of
weaker purchasing power in the domestic market in mainland china. yvonne: and i have to wonder how meaningfully the economy can rebound if we continue to see housing and contracted sales on the decline. when can we actually call bottom on the chinese real estate market? iris: i think we don't need to over-worry, because now we are almost sure that the local governments and a pboc are finding a solution to continue the construction work of uncompleted homes. so they will be completed. actually this is out of my expectation six months ago because i believe that those will be completed only very, very slowly. now they are going to complete it quite quickly. so in fact add gdp in terms of construction activity in the fourth quarter. so it is not really a bad thing.
of course the news is a bad thing for those who bought those homes. the thing is that where the money comes from to continue building those homes, those money will become debts of maybe banks, making local governments, and those debts will be matured in five to 10 years time. and what will become the end story of those debts? so it is actually pushing off of the timeline from now to five and 10 years on words and we will see another debt crisis. rishaad: iris, i mean, this is 25% to 28% the whole of gdp in china we're talking about, the developers and the housing market. now we have mortgage boycotts gathering steam. perhaps have hit their summit. but that is putting a lot of
strain on banks. how do you see the banking system holding up? iris: as i have said, i think this is pushing the debt issue to five to 10 years later. for banks, i think only the big banks can really help because they have some capital ratio. so the first thing is we expect banks to raise more capital. and that means the debt ratio will also increase. but for now only the big banks have this capacity, so there is actually no choice for the government. so what will be a burden on the banks as well as a burden on local governments. i believe that local governments have to share some burden because they actually get revenue from those sales for the uncompleted homes. yvonne: i have to ask about the ongoing taiwan tensions.
we have already seen some halts of chinese exports of natural sand. they are banning imports in taiwan of fish and citrus fruits, the like. how do you see these tensions disrupting further the supply chain issues and how inflationary is it? iris: i think it is more regional because taiwan's food exports is more to the asian region. it is not really to many parts of the world. it is more asian inflation issue. but for mainland china, the inflation is actually very moderate nowadays. two-point-something percent within range. for other asian regions, it means that if taiwan cannot export fruit and fishes to mainland china, they have to cut prices of exports to other locations like, for example,
hong kong. so we will enjoy pretty good for from taiwan with lower prices, just like the pineapples last year. david: i remember them being quite sweet. iris, since we are talking about trade, you cover hong kong too. i mean, gdp contracted because of the weak export numbers we got. that is hong kong. looking ahead, you have upgraded your forecast of the mainland economy because of retail sales. what is your outlook for external demand and external trade, because that seems to be coming in weaker and weaker recently. iris: you are right. i am actually quite worried about this. when china has the lockdown, it actually makes the u.s. and europe suffer because of logistics and also other things. but when the u.s. and europe is having slower growth, it also
affects the rest of the world and china will also suffer. so i believe that for the manufacturing, that is why i believe it is very difficult to recover fully to the pre-covered level. actually, we have already seen some manufacturing companies, factories, that are going to have some redundancy and maybe closer business. rishaad: iris pang there. as we have been checking in with what has been going on but taiwan, we expect nancy pelosi to meet the taiwanese president in a short while, about eight minutes away. slight movement to the downside. the biggest loser there is a commercial finance company. looking at the taiwan dollar,
rishaad: upswing for asian equities. we are also looking at what is happening business flash was. b chinese supplier of electric vehicle that are he delaying a north american plant due to tensions raised by u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi's trip to taiwan. it was meant to supply batteries for tesla and ford.
the announcement will be pushed back until september or october. caterpillar saying its bottom line has been hit by slowing sales in china. the company missed. they blame unfavorable manufacturing costs as it grapples with headwinds including surging power costs in europe and covid-related shutdowns in china. amd giving a lukewarm sales forecast for the third quarter, sing revenue will be about $6.7 billion compared to estimates of $6.8 billion, indicating its market share gains against intel will not make up for a decline in pc sales. shares fell more than 5% in extended trading following the announcement. david: let's have a look at markets. let's start things off with the currency markets, just keep in mind be that job is a -- keep in mind the backdrop.
that is continuing against the yen. g10 against the kiwi dollar. broadly speaking, a rebound of suits. looney, danish corona. also looking at big moves. yvonne: you're getting that relief, relatively restrained response from beijing when it comes to nancy pelosi in taiwan. we're seeing an upside of 3% for alibaba. tencent up 2%, so is jd.com. certainly a good day for risk assets. the fed story is interesting on why we are not seeing negative reaction from tech, given we are have picked up substantially in the last few hours. take a look at what it comes to live pictures out of taiwan. we are minutes millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network,
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rishaad: nancy pelosi expected to meet with the president. taiwanese dollar holding its own above the 30 level after slipping below the psychological point. all of this as she becomes the highest ranking american politician to visit taiwan in 25 years. newt gingrich was there in 1997. at the moment we have china announcing economic retaliation as well against the territory and on top of that we have military drills likely as well. looking at taiwanese assets, not that much pressure on us what we saw on monday, over 200 million dollars of foreign outflows in the latest quarter over 650 million dollars u.s. being taken out of the taiwan. semis moving to the upside because of nancy pelosi possibly meeting with the head of that company. david, how does this all figure
in the grand scheme of things for the wider region? david: that's interesting point, because there is also the fed -- there's a lot more news out of taiwan, a lot more material news when it comes to the markets and the fed because of the move up in the dollar. the reminder that we are going to be in this pickle, this tightening cycle for longer. we are doing good as far as asia goes but we are coming off three straight days of steep losses in some of these markets. we have erased all the gains on the csi 300. >> eurasia group was interesting. they put out the odds now. given what we have seen, when it comes to the near term of a major taiwan security crisis, it has gone from 25% to 30%.
there is a rising of confrontation but then relatively speaking we have seen beijing a bit more restrained and how they are tackling this whole issue. the market impact has been erased. jim bullard doubles down on that message. their top priority is bringing down inflation. kathleen, it seems like the fed officials were trying to deal with this. >> if you don't listen to what they say you will get yourself in and a fixation where they are wrong. if it looks like the economy is going down, it will be a recession surely they will have
to call back. the fed has to get more restrictive. he also thinks that they can pull off a soft landing because they have more credibility then when he came in. he was untested but such a different position now. let's listen to something he said. >> i would like to see the policy rate get to 3.75 or 4% this year. i think inflation has come in hotter than what i would have expected during the second quarter. now that that has happened, i think we will have to go a little bit higher than what i was saying before. >> he went on to say that we would be more data-dependent. he raised rates a lot. he thinks this will have to go
at the end of the year. somewhere in the middle between the markets and the fed saying we are not done fighting inflation yet, i think he is trying to show there is this ground where they have frontloaded and they can keep in question expectations down. get a little lucky on supply chains loosening up and then maybe they can pull this off and this will cause high rate without pushing inflation up to really get this thing under control. >> let's try and figure out how wide this middleground is for investors to stand on. what is needed in this inflation slide? the fed officials we have heard from these past couple of hours. >> they are saying that -- we don't talk about recession, we
talk about growth above or below trend. it will probably be below trend but she is saying that is probably what you need to get inflation down. i have to see inflation sustainably coming down on month by month numbers. we are not there yet. we are nowhere near ending this inflation fight. mary davis saying that we are resolute and completely united on achieving price stability. it means to something closer to 2%. a long way to go. charlie evans said in september things we could see a 50 or 75 basis point rate hike. but what he said in the past, for the last two meetings of the year, he thinks the fed can crank it down a bit to 25 basis point rate hikes. he things it is possible we will need a couple more of those this
year. in answer to your question, maybe that is what people have to start seeing. they're watching the data. if the inflation starts to behave, it is not that they will stop hiking rates right away, even if the economy slows down, they know that will probably begin to happen but they will move to this less aggressive path and watch with the numbers due. if i put it altogether for you, i don't know how much that helps uncertain investors but i think that is the message now. >> kathleen hays, our global policy editor. that is one of the major themes that the markets are looking at. nancy polizzi -- nancy pelosi should be meeting with the taiwanese president. that is, the what is happening there. she is such a hold joint briefing as well. she has also come out and said that she had come in peace to
the region as well. maybe that was to suasion some of the more hawkish tone coming out of beijing. it is certainly happening as we speak here as well. she is also saying that this service and know it contradicts the long-standing u.s. policy concerning taiwan and the unilateral effort is such a change the status quo so there we go. we have china condemning this visit. including the banning of sand exports to taiwan and it is holding some fish and fruit imports as well. let's have a look at that and leave those images there. let's get it over to you guys in hong kong. >> absolutely. this will also give our viewers a little bit more clarity on what is coming in these next
couple of minutes. this meeting is imminent. we should be getting at some point, based on the initial agenda a press conference that will follow from the house speaker. some of the other things one hour or so back that she already touched on, things like solutions to semiconductors, that it is coming at an opportune time given what has been happening there as far as the legislation and the ships act. live pictures coming through in case you're joining us right now. this meeting between the house speaker and the taiwanese president. >> some for sponsor being exchanged across the delegation of the u.s.. nancy pelosi did talk a little bit more about how this trip was supported by bipartisan support in congress.
she did talk a little bit more about security, the economy, a range of topics that we are talking about during the parliamentary session a few months ago but gently a lot to talk to when it comes to the president and we talk about the washington post with the tsmc here as well. watch this one as they cross this morning. coming up, how global issues affecting the taiwan civic conductor industry. we will break at dennis as we continue coverage of nancy pelosi's trip in taiwan. this is bloomberg. ♪
beijing is saying that it is not at odds with its long-standing u.s. policy on the territory. >> let's go to our viewers here out of the cabinet. the taiwan government will ensure the safety and the surrounding areas that the cabinet is also commenting on to ensure and monitor these markets closely. question some background on why beijing is angry about her being and taiwan. this is 1991, you bring it back to 30 years ago when she was in beijing and she did not hold that pro-democracy banner at tiananmen square. i think that is why she is such a china hog. maybe that is why we are seeing such tension when it comes to this meeting but here you are
seeing the president of taiwan speaking here and introducing the house speaker. what can we expect in this meeting? >> i think they will be talking in fairly broad brush strokes about the importance of supporting taiwan. based on the u.s. taiwan relations act that kind of upholds the cooperation obviously, in light of the saber rattling coming from beijing. they will speak in pleasantries and nancy pelosi, i am sure she is going to be making some statements about why she supports taiwan as you just alluded to, her visit -- prepositioning in the past has been a bit of a hawk toward beijing. she revealed that packard in tiananmen square. she is acting on behalf of what
she believes are the interests of her aging constituents. a lot of people said she probably would not go but in hindsight, not much of a surprise given that midterm elections could change her position as no longer being house speaker. >> the wider context here, the white house has pushed back. at the same time, you can't help but think that if they wanted to keep her from going, they could have done something else and prevented it. >> i think joe biden did stress to xi jinping and their phone call that the executive and legislative branches of the government are equal but separate parts of the government in addition to the judicial arm of the government and that he could not necessarily ordered her not to go. i think he was counseled by the pentagon that now would not be a good time for her to go given the geo political tensions and
the saber rattling's coming from the threat of possible military intervention. the pentagon thought it was not a good idea. we are hearing from sources inside the plosive camp that at the end of the day, nancy pelosi would have backed away from this trip had joe biden directly asked her not to go. sources as well as john kirby said biden never spoke directly to pelosi, telling her not to go. hence, she is there. >> steve will be monitoring these events. we also expect a visit to ta -- to the sector there. let's get to debbie who joins us now. what do we know about this and what were the -- what with the conversation entail? >> right now we know that pelosi
is reportedly expected to meet with the chairman today. although the spokeswoman has declined to come from the meeting. it shows that this is very important to the u.s. economy because it is the world possible large -- largest contract chipmaker. without the output or the import of ships to u.s. companies, the u.s. economy could come to a hold. it is a bit worrying what is going to happen when china is going to hold a drill encircling taiwan as nancy pelosi departs. >> thank you so much for your update and your impact on the
tech sector in taiwan. let's look at the outlook for taiwan. i was great to have you. how do you see this meeting and tensions over taiwan really impacting the supply chain issues revolving around semiconductors moving forward? >> good morning and thank you for having me again. i think the geo political tensions are going to increase. i think the supply chains have already been disrupted in the past two years but if taiwan is going to be locked down and surrounded by the beijing military and the coming later weeks, i think that is most likely to affect the chip export of taiwan.
we don't know how long it will last but for a short time, we could expect the chips manufactured by the tsmc will have some problems as they are shipped out to the u.s. customers, including media md or even apple. not just the u.s. but global consumer electronics, they will potentially be affected if that lockdown persists for longer. >> while we do try to figure out what potential disruptions there might be, they may or may not happen, what is the underlying work right now within the sector as i talk about inventory. are we continuing to see a drawdown in inventories?
>> control has already started. if you look at the inventory data, this ratio has really shot up high. to them -- to some extent, even higher than the pre-dot com bubble level two decades ago. if you look at the number, it is kind of scary. right now, we have a macro slowdown. that means that the inventory correction is inevitable. we think if it were to last a few quarters, we think some of these other companies like the recent earnings, they talk about how this will persist for two or three quarters. so i think that is something we are going to go through until the first half of next year before it all clears out.
>> hold that thought for a second. we are getting more lines out of this meeting taking place between the president of taiwan and the house speaker, nancy pelosi. at the moment, saying they continue to work with united states here. and they would not back down here. we look at what is happening in the response that we just had from china. one of the things is the export ban on sand. how does that affect the semi-side of things? >> i think taiwan will be able to sources from the other regions.
i think the key thing is silicon. i think that will be -- so far we have not seen that as a key hurdle. >> we are expected to hear the house speaker, nancy pelosi at the podium to speak. let's listen in. >> it is your humility for that i accept this award. i accepted not for me only but for our members of congress who were so instrumental in all you said about the compass ms. together. democrats and republicans, houses and senate, both sides of the aisle united in our support
for taiwan. this time, i am so excited to receive this award on behalf of the united states congress. it is just unwavering, the response that we had was so positive from our colleagues. i look forward to displaying this award in the speaker's office. as a symbol of our treasured friendship. [speaking chinese]
been very proud to come to taiwan to make clear we will not abandon our commitment to taiwan and we are proud of their enduring friendship and may i mention, they are all cochairs of this delegation. the chairman -- the chair of the foreign affairs committee, the vice chair. the member of the intelligence committee, there are so many things in the congress. i say illinois, he says chicago. and again, one of our newest members of congress serving the state as a diplomat for coming, congressman andy kim. not only the services committed
by the foreign affairs committee. we are very proud of our delegation. thank you to our delegation and we are proud to be here with the vice president and other distinguished leaders that are here with you madam president. the story of taiwan is an inspiration to all freedom loving people in the united states and around the world. out of a crucible of challenge, you have forged a flourishing democracy. one of the freest in the world proud to be led by a woman president.
they have proven to the world that with hope, courage and determination, it is possible to build a peaceful and prosperous future. even in terms of the challenges you face, now, more than ever, america's solidarity with taiwan is crucial. that is the message we are bringing here. [speaking chinese] >> when we travel and leave the country as a congressional delegation, to protect our people as well as global security, economy to spread
prosperity throughout the whole country and others and govern every three principal pillars are of our travel. there are all three areas we have. i do want to mention congratulate taiwan for your governance of the covid issue. your model to the world in terms of the cooperation of the people and the success of your initiative, congratulations to the people of taiwan for following the lead and suggesting their own proposal. today, the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy. america's determination to preserve democracy here in taiwan and around the world remains ironclad. we are grateful to the partnership of the people of taiwan in this mission.
i am very grateful to receive this award. i am grateful to you, madam president and to the people for their enduring friendship. there are many taiwan americans that are very excited by our business and when i came before in 99, i came with them and we learned a lot. that is what we came to do, to participate in the asian-pacific initiative in a way that is appropriate for taiwan to be successful. and to do so in a way that opens many more possibilities. we came here to listen, learn and what do you know? i got this beautiful, beautiful, beautiful award. thank you, madam president.