tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg August 4, 2022 10:00am-11:00am EDT
announcer: from the financial centers of the world, this is bloomberg markets with alex steele and guy johnson. ♪ alyx: 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day thursday august 4. at the top market stories we're following for you at this hour. hikes and yikes, w.o.e. hikes 50 basis points for the first time since 1995 as it warns inflation could peak at 13.3% and the u.k. is headed for more than a year
of recession. how long can it last? after nasdaq 100 hit the highest in early may goldstein is warning it could fizzle out and they're watching earnings downgrades. what's there to whine about, how they are squeezing it into the industry. in new york, i'm kailey johnson in with guy johnson. guy, d.o.e. thursday. guy: we might drink up after the news from england. the wine story might be appropriate in our rundown today. kailey, honesty is probably the best description from the bank of england and was brutalry honest and should have been delivered with a i don't recollect hire -- yorkshire accent but for the initiated. it was the biggest rate hike we've seen in 27 years. but that wasn't the story. the story was the economic
outlook the bank of england painted a picture which is unambiguously grim, a horrible, horrible picture the u.k. is predicting if we believe the forecast. the governor andrew bailey addressing the many issues that we have to deal with as a result of today's decision in the news conference. andrew: b.p.i. inflation is not expected to peak at 13.4% in q-46 this year and remain at the elevated levels in 2023. the bulk of the further increase reflects higher wholesale prices feeding through to retailer prices with a further large rise in the offgen price gap in october and i forecast the projections taken into account the new method announced this morning. guy: i don't know what to say but a very grim picture painted
by the bank of england. look what is happening in france and germany right now. the struggles happening with energy there are going to deliver probably a similar economic outlook than the one we're seeing in l.a. this is kailey lyons question of the day, is europe host? it's a fair one. there were others, let me assure you that were more dramatic kicked around in the meeting this morning. let's bring in the national correspondent mike mckee to address the issue of toast and markets ashworth. after what we heard today, is europe toast? >> well, supposed to pick up on the bank of england. the forecasts they pulled out are utter rubbish because they have no facility to factor in what government policy is going
to be which all of a sudden is very symmetry and don't think there will be any recession in the k. and certainly not this year and all the forecasts they're putting out there are basically useless. which is about inflation. and i actually think the chances of gas and oil prices are more likely to the downside we're seeing. europe has been a real problem, however, which they can't get out of and it's incredibly poor news there and last time we spoke on the radio, we asked our economist if there was any good news at all and she said there aren't any fires. then five minutes later you hear of the volcano in iceland? i don't see much help economywise. kailey: you listed fiscal policy and the lead for the race might want to cut taxes and the b.o.e.
will have to be more aggressive even if you don't think a recent session a imminent now, could they hike enough it's a foregone conclusion? andrew: they forecast 0.8 inflation in three years' time. so if they really are expecting recession which i don't think they are, they know the fiscal policy will change dramatically in october. some of those tax rates cuts may be inflationary but the big one, for instance, doesn't exist. the forward tax hikes and they take them away and can't be by the value of inflation. what will be the inflationary rate, i don't think it will be that bad and the inflation will come down anyway as the bank of england is itself predicting very strongly will be back below the target at 2% fairly straightforward and fairly quickly and does expect inflation to be around 9% this
time next year. that is very scary. i don't believe that's going to be the case but if they believe that, that's why they are understandably headaching rates correctly by 50 basis points but only in line what the e.t. v. has done and in light of what market fed has done. guy: mike, can we bring you in the conversation, can you imagine the fed being this honest and b is what's happening in europe going to happen in the united states? does the economic gap close or remain as wise as it feels it is at the moment? mike: i don't think the fed would ever do anything quite as sparkling as governor bailey did today, the markets would overreact way too much for that. there are people who would like them to be honest what they can and cannot control. they can't do anything with energy prices. but i do thinking the situation is different than european
economics and the u.k. economics because the u.s. is much more of a self-contained economy and is not suffering from as many of the same problems as they are especially with energy because we produce so much of it. the interesting thing, put it in terms of toast, i was thinking you put toast in the toaster without looking where you set the dial. that's where the u.k. is because the bank of england had three forecasts on what could happen depending on energy prices and marcus pointed out they didn't factor in fiscal help and the e.u. is pretty much burnt toast, they don't have control of what's going on and they have murphy's law and affecting the role and energy will only get worse from all the forecasts for them and they'll go into the winter. they have a food problem because even with ukraine coming back online they're having a drought
and so there's a lot of problems there and with that drought comes shipping problems, transit problems throughout europe. the europeans have a real problem, the european central bank can't get out of it and might be more useful to ask if christine regard would be as honest as andrew bailey rather than jay powell. kailey: it's fair to say the runway for jay powell looks clearer or less narrow because in theory the economic data to this point is backing the fed up that there is room for the economy to withstand these higher rates. mike: there is a narrow path and when we get the jobs report we'll see and as long as people have jobs they're willing to spend money and the u.s. is not facing the same kind of problems. of course the u.k. still has a very strong labor market. the question is how long does that last in the face of innation and all the things that are going to go wrong. i would step back and say none
of the central bankers in any of these places know what is going to happen and the frustration for the market is they want some sort of certainty and the banks are all saying, you know, we just have to take this as it comes. i also would mention, kailey, your definition of europe and toast is a little broad because do we include the u.k. in europe as toast or are they a english breakfast? marcus: we like toast here. we're a big fan of toast. guy: it's best served with marmalade and various other things on it. let's talk a little bit more of this later in the program. we'll wrap it up there and thank you. michael mckee and marcus will join me on the radio if you want further analysis of what's happening, tune in to the cable a little later on. kailey: i can't get enough of this question of the day so we'll talk more about it when we
come back. is europe toast? kim forest, founder of boca capital partners will be joining us with her thoughts on what her preferred breakfast is. plus as we head to break, we weigh in on the debate over the fed and bank of england and take a listen to this. >> being the most honest of the central banks and predicts a recession that will last for five quarters so a prolonged recession and yet they feel the need to hike 50 basis points with more to come. that's the reality facing the central banks and the fed is like we can avoid recession, it will be a slow down but no recession. come on. we're going into recession, major economies will go into recession.
♪ >> this rise in energy prices has exacerbated the fall in real incomes and led to another significant relyization for the outlook for u.k. and the rest of europe. g.d.p. growth in the u.s. slowed and the economy is forecast to enter a recession later this year. >> the likelihood is this forecast is overly optimistic and the chances are the unemployment rate will rise by much more. output probably may not last six quarters but output probably is
going to be weaker and we're probably going to see the bank having to do a u turn pretty fast. >> they've done huge terms in trade loss, vis-a-vis the largest trading partner is europe because of brexit and vis-a-vis their ability to purchase energy and food because of recent developments. kailey: that was the b.o.e. governor andrew bailey and danny and adam posen on the challenges faced by the u.k. after hiking 50 basis points with 13.3% inflation and a recession that lasts for more than a year. that brings us to our question of the day, put the u.k. together with the rest of the euro zone facing an energy crisis and is europe toast? joining us to discuss is kim forrest, boca capital partners founder and c.i.o. kim? kim: the eight ball says science points to yes, europe is toast.
but we don't know for how long. things don't look great. and i think a lesson that we should have learned living in america here, or north america here for the last six months is food and energy prices really do matter. and i think we're facing another winter where europe and the u.k. are going to be challenged with respect to energy prices and hopefully not energy availability. but those two items matter. and i think if you're looking for stocks in europe to go up in this next six months, it's going to be a tough, tough proposition to hold on to. guy: is europe investable, kim? kim: it depends on your time line. i'm a growth at a reasonable price investor. if you're looking at 3-5 years, the answer is maybe and it depends on which industry you
would select. kailey: fair enough. let's talk about growth at home then because there's been somewhat of a renaissance in growth stocks, the nasdaq 100 is up 19% from the lows in mid june, kim. do you buy that rally or is it almost over? kim: well, again, is growth at a reasonable price, a the love the growth stocks with infinite p.e.'s or very close to infinite p.e.'s, i probably stay away just on principle because they're so unknowable. when is that cash flow going to start coming where it would fall into my world? so i would say no but i do thinking we're trying to figure out where the 10-year is going to be and is anything investable, right? once we figure out where the fed is going to land, and every day we get closer to that with loss of good economic data.
go ahead. guy: on that point, lbc was saying ditch stocks by cash given the rally we've seen thus far s that a step too far? kim: i think. it always is. cash, unless you actually need it for the next, whatever, 36 months, cash is not something you should be in. there are bad surprises and good surprises and they happen all the time. the 19% rise in growth stocks just shows you that you couldn't have forecast that back in june, so you need to stay invested with the money that needs to be invested. i sound like i'm talking doublespeak or simple speak but that's just the truth. no one actually knows what's going to happen, so that money needs to be invested and cash earns nothing, nothing. kailey: you say no one knows what's going to happen but we can estimate what we think will happen on the earnings side. you're starting to see revisions coming down but there's a core of strategists saying they
simply haven't come down enough and most of the downgrades will be coming in the latter portion of this year, what are your expectations for earnings, kim? kim: they're pretty much in line. yeah, they're coming down a bit. i would have thought that in this quarter that they would have come down much more given what everybody thought of the economy. but companies are saying their availability for the next six months is whatever and they're maintaining -- more or less maintaining their estimate. so i think that speaks well. these companies know their business. they know they can't set the bar too high for themselves so it's probably kind of low. i'm going with consensus. consensus is drifting down but not by much. i think it is investable especially if you buy half position, right? today might be a good idea to buy something if it falls more in the fall, you buy more of it and you have a full position.
right? if it goes up you say it's a good company, i want to have a full position. so your dollar cost is averaging is essentially what i'm saying to do. guy: in terms of what happens next, how do you think the rest of this year is going to play out? how bumpy is the ride going to be. you talk about dollar cost averaging in. how big is the amplitude of the moves going to be? kim: i think they'll be really big in the fall. i think we'll drift on through august because it's not a great news month and get a little bit of jackson hole type news after the jobs report and nothing will happen the next couple weeks but we've got an election and that's going to drive some momentum. and then we have the whole third quarter craziness especially in b to b companies and were people on vacation and did they sign the deal? that's the big question for
every company that does business with another company in the third quarter. those are big questions. people always get twitchy and nervous around october so i'm banking we'll have some really great roller coaster sort of days. guy: sounds like it will be relaxing rest of the year. and bumpy from them. great to catch up. thanks very much, indeed. kim forrest from capital partners. what will we do next? we'll talk tesla, they're holding the annual meeting and they're at the top of the agenda a proposal that could lead to a stock split. more on that story next on bloomberg. ♪
the proposal comes up of course as today's annual general meeting taking place at the company's new factory in texas. joining us now to discuss this and what else is going on is greg. and i'm assuming from the stock split it's a done deal. greg: it's a done deal. the company is going to authorize having more shares and you wouldn't expect they'd have any issue with that especially with what we saw with what the stock did in august of last year and went nuts after they split the shares. and they also went higher back in march when they announced they were going to seek this authorization and that should be a pretty straightforward business today. kailey: what are the other orders of business, what issues are on the table, craig? craig: there's interestingly, a management proposal for a change in how long the directors will serve in terms of terms on the board. so up to this point, you've had
three-year terms, last year interestingly, huh a shareholder proposal to go to one year that got majority support and i say it's a bit after surprise because this is a company that generally you've seen the shareholders go along with what management wants and there has been criticism over the years of tesla's governance and whether or not they do enough to sort of keep musk in line and to see that get majority support was interesting. this year we have a proposal actually from management to go from three years to two years and kind of a half step and a question of whether or not that's far enough for some of those critics of the company's governance. guy: this is another example of governance issues that continue to swirl around this company. why are they struggling to put issues like this kind of behind them? craig: it's really hard to take a stand maybe for the board when you have such a strong
personality in musk who is sort of waging these rhetoric wars against e.s.g. and whatnot. you've actually seen as well some other proposals that are going to be voted on today that, you know, it's really a packed agenda. a lot of shareholder proposals asking for more disclosure and more measures on diversity because there's been a lot of controversies around those issues as well. kailey: how much could the packed agenda be derailed around the confusion of his legal battle with twitter? craig: always with these annual meetings, the sort of main event actually ends up being the q&a and i think absolutely that is likely to come up. you know, there's very likely the concern on part of shareholders whether or not musk would sell any more stock in tesla to fund that deal and you know, perhaps a bit of misgivings on the part of shareholders about him doing
this in the first place because, you know, it has been a bit of an overhang on the stock and we've seen it come back quite a bit in the last few weeks but if the ruling in the delaware court doesn't go musk's way it could be a risk for tesla shareholders. guy: with larry leaving, is that significant? craig: he was brought on the board ostencibly as part of the independent director for the f.c.c. settlement in the funding of the tweets and they're quite close and used the word "ostencibly" there and he didn't last long and wasn't necessarily it be required he stay on as part of that settlement but i think what the s.e.c. had in mind in terms of independent voices coming on the board as a check to musk never panned out. guy: no kidding. craig, thanks, indeed, craig trudell, ahead of what is
>> we are an hour into the u.s. trading session. bloomberg abigail doolittle is trapping -- is tracking the news for us. abigail: take a look at the numbers. impressive when the nasdaq had an up 3%. it had been close to being up 20% from the bottom. i believe bloomberg opinion column is john arthur was posing the question could that constitute a four market when
you put it in the downtrend. very impressive today's action higher. a little bit of a mixed bag. up about 27% in july, it's best month since i believe 2009. they are going forward with a four-part bond. yesterday up 5% and today's decline is very small. where we are seeing big declines and a significant cut of the report, oil back below $90 per barrel. at $89 71. down 3.4%. well below that today moving average. you can really see it move to the downside as the battle
between -- appears to be going to the sellers. stay tuned. the opposite side of oil, the ev space, take a look at shares. down 9.5%. the luxury maker, they/their outlook per car manufacturing output. originally it was for 20,000. now it is 6000 vehicles. b, that track is up 6%. >> abigail, thank you very much. let's get back to the earnings season story. a sale of its large commercial
is a non-regulator. widespread among utilities sell off. second point earnings -- i spoke with -- in an exclusive interview. >> juke is 95 percent regulated. we operate regulating gas throughout the southeast. developing our expertise, wind, solar or battery sores has been an important part of the company. as we look ahead and we see the growth potential of regulating utilities, as we pursue the largest clean energy in the u.s., we look at investors around our grid, resiliency,
reliability and battery and other technologies, we believe this is the right moment to look at our renewables and really evaluate who is the best strategic owner at this moment. there's going to be competition from capital and we want that commercial business to grow to what it is capable of while we are also focused on regulating renewables business and regulated utilities in general. in this moment we have extraordinary drug -- extraordinary growth potential and we believe the strategic review gives us an opportunity to review this. guy: you say the strengthening your numbers today it seems to reflect that by a warrant -- beating that by a wide margin. is there a signal by how you see the mix going forward in terms of the energy you are going to focus on russian mark you clearly have to replace coal, you're doing that. you're making a big step forward in the way you are going to do that. but is there a signal in this
decision about how you are ultimately going to replace that coal generating capacity? lynn: no, guy, no signal. deciding how do we position and strengthen ourselves for the future. that clean energy transition that we have been talking about in strong carbon reduction, 50% by 2030, net zero by 2050 is really pertinent to those regulated utilities we are offering. there will be a strong investment in renewable. a strong investment and battery sores. we will be retiring coal. inspecting to be out of coal by 2025. that replacement decision, that investment decision by the clean energy has always been regulated and will continue to be. this renew for -- is looking at the potential growth and investment over the next decade to say how do investments do to pursue that road in the regulated business but also put
the commercial renewables in the hands of a strategic owner who has the potential to grow it as well? these are choices we have to make as we move forward. we have done a number of them over the years, we will do a thorough and timely review. we are very proud of that and believe it will attract a very attractive value in the market. guy: consumers are facing a significant rise in the bills that they are going to have to pay. at some point are you anticipating you will get pushback? at some point are you anticipating the people simply will not pay? where do you see the tradition three and terms of facility builds? are they going to continue to rise at their current rate? lynn: affordability is top in line at duke because we believe in order to be for -- in order to be successful, we have to pursue clean energy. but we also have to maintain reliability and affordability.
you cannot get those three things out of balance and be successful in building infrastructure. fuel, one of our feedstocks for the production of electricity, has been increased several times from where we were a year ago. our customers are feeling the pressure of that. we are working actively to minimize that as much as we possibly can. spreading the recovery out over longer periods of time, taking advantage of the diverse set of suppliers and the resources we have. and working actively with our vulnerable customers. those who could be challenged even more so because of the impact of inflation. this is something we are working actively on every day. as we think about the future, we will always keep an eye on that affordability, reliability, clean balance, because we think that is the formula for success. guy: solid numbers. my conversation with lynn good, the ceo there. kaylee, i guess you would rather
be the ceo of a u.s. utility than a european utility. you have omp out of germany saying in the last minutes it has been a run on diesel. in the u.k., you have the regulator having the position where it is bringing forward effectively price rates. it is going to be absolutely a norm is. a really different picture over here than the one we are seeing in the united states. even the one in the united states is difficult. kailey: it is difficult everywhere. at that picture in europe, especially what is going on with you be -- you bf. germany relying on coal but needs to get some of those coal shipments up the river that are drying out. it speaks to the difficulty of this moment and why renewables in particular are in such demand. he comes back to the regulatory story here in the u.s. and the future of the reduction act. it is going to show up in clean infrastructure. guy: will that shift be
inflationary? the problem we are already facing now, is going to be a challenge. it is going to be a difficult one to manage. consumers certainly feeling very stressed. what happens over here will happen over there. come back to our question of the day, is europe toast? that is going to be something we are going to have to think about as well. not immune to that inflation we have been discussing. we are going to look at how winemakers are dealing with costs. we -- i think we all need a drink right now. the chairman and ceo -- joining us now. this is bloomberg. ♪
audience and radio listeners. joining us is the chairman and winemaker duncan. matt duncan, take it away. >> i'm sure when you started no one expected an american vendor to be so successful now you are partnering up with the golden state warriors. oprah and lebron drink your wine. what does it all feel like when you look back at the success you have had? >> thanks. we have been celebrating this milestone of 50 years. the big party is on saturday and we are looking forward to welcoming our guests and having a fantastic time. we have been very fortunate over a long. of time to do something that is hard to do in business these days. just ask our guns. we have a saying as light as a cabernet.
the alexandria cabernet and the napa valley cabernet. we are so fortunate people use and drink our wine for the most important moments in their life. matt: the changes you witnessed, i imagine, are stark. water prices in california hit an all-time high. i am sure getting labor is fairly difficult and expensive as well. but i guess, -- tell us what you do to conserve water. david: it is something my brother tim and i have been dedicated to since we were in grade school. we were very fortunate for all of our vineyards and wine facilities that we have adequate wells. what we have done in the last 15 or so years, we --
recertification and building recertification to work very hard in wineries to defer massive amounts of water. in the old days, it was hard to make wine. also in the vineyards, it is the application of technology that has changed that. in the old days, we go kick on the valve overnight and let it run all night, but today we do three or four hours at a time. we definitely apply that. we believe we changed our water use to about 30% of historic use today in our vineyards. it is a really dramatic difference. good morning, guy.
it has been tough to watch the weather this year. we have been very fortunate. in the bay area, i call it good human area -- good human error. we have not had any 90 degrees -- any hundred degree days. we are always watching that. it is difficult to assess climate change over decades. and the future. it is definitely an impact and things have changed. we are fortunate these -- we are fortunate this year the weather patterns. guy: the other thing european producers are struggling with, you bring up the issue of labor. this applies to -- the supply chain shortage is a norm us. the shortage of glass, everything you need to make wine right now. what is it like to make wine for you right now? david: we are still bottling our
19 --. things were late getting here. we needed to get labels, glass and all those things you mentioned are either held up in shipping or production but i believe we are -- a little bit. with china coming out of the covid lockdown, hopefully things will loosen up a little bit and we get a little bit back to normal. this year definitely being impacted by the supply chain, it is no question. kailey: there are obviously a lot of inflationary problems on the demand side. are people willing to keep paying up for a nice bottle of wine? david: i cannot speak for the whole industry but i speak for silver oak, we are releasing our
2018 alexander value -- alexander valley cabernet on saturday. we have an early sales program that goes out by email and we are up tremendously over our plan for the entire year. especially right now, i know people are feeling the pinch at the pump, and the grocery store and other things. inflation is here. but i think they look for that moment to enjoy and they want to lean on something they trust. fortunately for years, silver oak has been there for those special moments. we have not seen an impact to our sales. it is actually the opposite. we are seeing incredible recession for the wine. kailey: it is kind of that revenge demand coming out of the pandemic. everyone wants to have their experiences and go out to restaurants. are you seeing it more on
restaurants outside the home or are people bottle -- are people buying bottles to drink on the couch? david: the lockdown, being in covid, people learned to take that moment, enjoy. they were locked down with their family. and now that they are able to go out again, people are looking for a little bit of a splurge. if they are going to pay $38 for a steak, buying a great bottle of wine just goes along with it. we see food and restaurant prices have changed dramatically. i was joking it is twice the price and half the food. but i think the quality is excellent and people are looking for those moments. we know especially for millennials and our younger customers, it is all our aches areas. that is what people are seeking and looking for today. a high-quality great bottle of wine adds to that moment for so
many of our customers. matt: david, i wanted to ask about your partnerships. we mentioned the warriors and the 49ers. i know that you have your own cooperage. you are only worth american winery that makes its own barrels. does that a lot -- does that allow you even more latitude in working with reducers of whiskey or beer for example? david: yeah. that is a great question, matt. we really enjoy those partnerships. the san francisco giants as well. people of having a glass of -- or san fernando valley at the ballpark. buying barrels -- we have been buying barrels since the 1970's and took full ownership a few years ago. that relationship is wonderful. partnership with -- tequila which is owned by my friend jose cuervo. they are high-end tequila. we have partnerships with whiskey makers and we made a special beer for the 50th anniversary that was finished in
silver oak barrels. i have not tasted that yet. i get my first taste tomorrow night and i am very excited about that. we have partnerships with the oak, it has been very fun for us. guy: it sounds like a cracking weekend. enjoy it. congratulations on the anniversary. thank you for your time today. we thank you for your time. david duncan, silver oak cellars ceo and chairman. and of course our friend. we have got some breaking news. this came through just a few moments ago. it appears that japan is now indicating that the chinese missile test we have been seeing conducted has had a trajectory where they sent some of those missiles over to taiwan. this is a significant escalation. it looked like they are stabilizing a little bit. but certainly in negative smp and the nasdaq down .2%.
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>> >> keeping >> you up-to-date with news from around the world. this is krita gupta. four american movie and be a star brittney griner. china has begun military drills around taiwan. one of the exercises involve missiles being fired into the sea. taiwan is downplaying the effect of the drills on shifting and airplane routes. there will be another return to save the landmark -- from ron and u.s. after meeting --.
four years ago we impose sanctions on the iranian economy. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: let's talk about what is happening in the market here. particularly from the bank of england. u.s. stocks rolling over a little bit. the british pound under pressure against the dollar and the euro. the positioning story as much as anything else. what is fascinating is what is happening with u.k. to year. the reaction we have been getting to the bank of england. there is this real belief that the bank is not going to be able to deliver that much more in terms of where we go with rates right now, you can see the market, prices up, yielded down.
that is a conflict of what we would -- the bases hike. there does seem to be this believe the pitch that has been painted here, it is not consistent with the idea the rates could go significantly higher. the bank is making it very clear that it does need to step on this great story and very aggressively and deal with this inflation that is being inflicted on the u.k. economy. how much control in reality central banks have? you can see an early policy move what we are seeing from the bank of england being delivered certainly by the bank of england today. which is slightly counterintuitive.
up next, we have the european close. we are counting you down for that. of five minutes away now. we are also talking about what is happening with the travel story. glenn vogel president and ceo is going to be joining us to caution in their numbers in favor today. we have that conversation a little later. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: thursday, the fourth of august. european stocks being moved by travel stocks. the real focus on what we got today for the bank of england. the countdown to the close starts right now. announcer: the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel.