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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  August 4, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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guy: thursday, the fourth of august. european stocks being moved by travel stocks. the real focus on what we got today for the bank of england. the countdown to the close starts right now. announcer: the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: 30 minutes to the close.
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this is what the picture looks like here in europe this thursday. travel stocks having a fairly good day. the real story is elsewhere. take a look at what is happening with the see yesterday. fascinating considering what we have had from the bank of england. we will hear from the governor, andrew bailey, and just a moment. kaylee, down by 3.2%. pi is even lower. kailey: we are off of session lows. the nasdaq down 10.1% today. this is coming off of a monster rally yesterday. we have been seeing some monster moves in the u.s. treasury market as well. yields coming in today for basis point on the 10 year. to basis point --. as you alluded, the first time since the invasion in ukraine --. guy: is it maybe being impacted
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by what is happening here in u.k.? the picture here in europe is universally grim. today the bank of england just added to that. raising interest rates by the most since 1995. delivered by 1.5%. it is now warning the u.k. for more than a year of recession is going to start in the fourth quarter and continue all the way through next year. bloomberg's -- lachlan spoke to the governor, andrew bailey. >> we have had very big shocks. when we talked in lessons, reports in may, our shock mainly comes from russia. the shock on gas prices has been a huge impact.
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there are risks both internationally and domestically. we have seen very big things happen. many other commodity prices coming down. >> it seems like it is in a spiral. given where we are now, could it get much worse? could fiscal prices help with the mark good -- with the market? andrew: the government, we condition our view on the last budget. the last budget, the election was going on. i am looking forward to working with the new prime minister. we will take fiscal policy when it is announced. that is the right way to do that. >> how ugly is this recession going to be? andrew: the real ugliness, to use your words, the combination of high inflation and recession
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forecast. the recession that we forecast today, by historical standards is not one of the deeper ones. but it comes with high inflation. that is a very difficult combination. >> given the outcome, how are rates neutral? andrew: we don't find the neutral framework, at the moment, particularly a useful tool. because of the nature of the shocks we are experiencing. the way i would look at it is this, a long run of neutral rather than a short-term run of neutral is different. they have to fit together. they can go in different directions. the idea of a single sense of what the neutral rate is, i don't think is actually helpful. at the moment, it is a particular configuration of the
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short-term concept of neutral, given the shocks that we are experiencing. >> so we are not neutral now? andrew: we are talking about longer run structural. that is not a safe way to look at it. we need to take those actions today to give us a very strong message about the risk of the systems and we will come back next time with more evidence and reassess it. >> interest rates will peak at 3%. do you show that, too? andrew: we don't have a number. we have moved away from what the central policy, the predicted forward guidance. because of the very high level of uncertainty in the world. it is a very hard thing to do. we have to set the framework. that is what our language is doing.
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flexibility meeting to meaning in terms of how we react to it. >> at what point does this become a crisis? andrew: this is not a crisis. we take rates into account when we set neutral policy. recently it has been more of a story of -- a string. when you look across currencies, it is not a particularly sterling story. i don't count sterling as being in crisis at all. i want to push back very hard against any suggestion of that. >> is there a point where it is so weak that it becomes a crisis? andrew: we always have to understand the context in which we are moving. understanding the context in which the exchange rate is moving.
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it is a relative price. the price between us and the rest of the world. >> going back to inflation. because it is so difficult to predict, do you think your models are perfect? andrew: this situation and for sizes why -- central bank is so important. in the 25 years of the mpc, this is, our framework is most put to test. we will get information -- we will get inflation back to target. that is monday message to people. of course it is very hard. this is very hard for people on low incomes in this country. as concentrated as it is in energy in particular. but if we don't get it under control, it will get worse and we will have to raise interest rates more. guy: that was the governor of
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the bank of england andrew bailey speaking earlier with francine lachlan. let's analyze what we have heard today from the bank. bloomberg markets economists joining us here on set. liz, the bank has painted a grim picture. >> it is a long-term -- a long time since we have seen a forecast like this. saying, we have got inflation and a recession in this picture, we are not going to be able to protect the economy from one or the other. in fact, it is both. there are always rifts in both directions. we hope it won't turn out quite as bad. it speaks to the seriousness of the current situation. kailey: how online are your forecasts we what the bank of england is saying? is 3% inflation realistic? liz: the bank of england has put
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in a big increase for energy prices in october. we don't know yet what prices will do. it is possible we get another increase on top of that now in january. in which case, as the bank of england alluded to, inflation could go even higher than that 13% which is i watering and a much higher cost than what was forecasted six months ago. our forecast, we have got to peak at --. the risk is very high here. guy: given the nature of that inflation, is -- going to do anything when tightened and more broadly with what is happening with commodities? liz: this is the question we have been wrestling with. if you have inflation which is so much driven i energy, food, the boe cannot get gas through the pipelines. you cannot get delivery drivers to deliver things around the u.k..
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what the boe is looking at and seeing what they can deal with, the labor market and the supply demand prices there, that is what they are worried about. we are worried we will see that number, 13% inflation get worried. it makes expectations drive and becomes, lasts longer than it needs to. to use their words, in the hopes that they will not have to do so much later on. kailey: what do you think they have to do? how high should they go and will they be able to go in the state of growth? liz: recession, if it does happen is not like previous recessions. normally in recessions we have been able to cut rates to support the roof -- to support the economy. they simply will not be able to do that. the forecasting about doing another 50 basis points in
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september. and stocks there to 75. they have this parallel universe forecast. what would happen if rates stayed where they are. on that basis, they say, where we have inflation, we would have inflation near three years old. maybe we don't need that much more at all. guy: the other thing the central bank is doing the others are not doing yet is actively ending qt. we are going to be seeing yield sales, bond sales more broadly. it looks like that price is fairly on rails in terms of how it is actually going to work. do we understand the impact that is going to have? is that going to amend the -- you are pointing to? liz: i don't think anyone can say they understand how it is going to work. it has not been done. we have seen bonds maturing and
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not being reinvested, but we haven't been seeing banks going out into the market like they are saying they are going to do in september and selling out to the market. it is interesting to see the impact that will have. we expected to have a tightening impact. but the more important determinant of bond yield is what the market thinks. that will be very interesting to see what the impact will be. kailey: what about fiscal policy? on the one hand it can be supported on the growth side. on the other, it could come in the form of tax cuts on certain things. that could be ace -- that could be a further inflationary force. how do you balance that? liz: when you look at what the boe did with this last fiscal count -- this last fiscal package, -- if you were to see a massive package of cuts for example, that means stronger growth, higher inflation, potentially higher interest rates. that is a realistic risk. guy: what i am really struggling
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with here is the way that things are changing and the bank seems to be scrambling to catch up. what is the degree of certainty at the moment about what the economic outlook is question mark people are saying the european economy is nothing in the bad shape bank is painting it to be. what is your degree of certainty around economic forecast right now? given the fact we do not understand some of the inputs that are affecting it? liz: economists would agree with the bank of england. you are right to say they are on the demand side. it is a split picture. at a certain income level, demand is holding up very well. people are still enjoying going back on holiday. the holidays we were not able to go on during the pandemic. if you look out and about at bars and restaurants, it still seems to be pretty packed. and yet, we have this consumer -- that says we are more depressed than any other time. at the very low end of the
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income spectrum, really are seeing very tough times indeed. it is a complicated picture. on the inflation side, you see other commodities. you mention before this, are coming down. there are plenty of risks in both directions. guy: the volatility on the energy front. is this the plan we need from the central bank? liz: we do need -- from central bank. they emphasize that in your interview and the press conference as well. she talked about the great virtue of the system we have here in the u.k.. we have a target and that is reiterated every year by the chancellor. kailey: liz martins of hsbc. we have seen the biggest rate hike from the boe since 1995.
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coming up, -- dealing with an energy crisis and water levels along the -- river could exacerbate that problem. it is a vital channel for delivery of oil, gas and coal. this could make the energy crisis worse. a russian court has found u.s. basketball star brittney griner guilty on charges of drug smuggling. greiner pleaded guilty to those charges last monday. she has been detained in russia for 24 weeks. executors earlier asked the judge for a nine and have your sentence if in fact they did find hearst -- find her guilty which the russian court has done. the u.s. has been engaging in ongoing conversations of a prisoner swap of greiner and a russian prisoner. wba star brittney griner has been found guilty of drug
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smuggling charges in russia. this is bloomberg.
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>> in case of a gas shortage, i would say we are prepared.
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the biggest exposure is europe, and especially germany. we can switch from gas to a mix of electricity and oil. everything up to a 50% gas shortage can be relatively easily compensated. also, i would say at a small additional cost. guy: he makes it sound so simple. that was mark ceo -- merck cfo speaking with bloomberg earlier on. we will talk about whether or not those sources are going to be available. today, unipart out making another warning of two key coal power plants in germany struggling to get coal along because of the low water levels. we have seen in the last hour the german oil refinery -- german oil refinery on the
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experiencing a run on heating oil and diesel. what i'm hearing is well, there are not enough trunks to deliver this oil and there are not an of generators to compensate for the loss of the gas. rachel morrison, bloomberg's head of european energy coverage also increasingly -- and she spent a lot of time talking to us about this developing crisis. there seems to be this idea we are facing multiple challenges with our gas prices. we thought we were going to be shifting to coal but that may not -- but that may no longer be available. diesel and heating oil, this is just stretching out to all energy systems that germany and others are all trying to use. >> some of these options government has laid out to get russian gas, whether to rely -- we are not getting it.
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are looking more difficult than we originally thought. coal, the plan is to get off coal in the long term. but this winter, a lot of european countries are relying on coal. we are seeing the impact of that hot weather across europe. particularly in dance and germany. that is how those coal stations along the stations get the fuel. they are really quite large stations that are going to have to run those stocks of coal. they may limit output so that they can save those colds for peak times when they need it. this is the summer. at the end of the summer, we are going to be in the position of we don't know what with coal stocks that we are supposed to be using to keep the lights on in the winter. kailey: there is an irony to me that we are talking about a river running low due to a change in climate exasperated -- exacerbated by climate change but they are running low because
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of fuel. when we talk about enough coal power, where can they turn to get the energy that they need? they are running out of options here. andrew: this -- rachel: this is going to be a scenario where europe is relying on strong winds. demand is not as high in some areas as in the winter so it is not such a problem. but that is not a situation that many countries want to be in. crossing their fingers hoping that it wouldn't be. we can still have solar in the summer and a lot of governments are talking about reducing demand because if you cannot increase supply, you have to cut demand. guy: let's talk a little bit about what is happening in the u.k.. basically having to make changes with the way it deals with the price cap which used to be twice a year. it is now having to do that more often. it is essentially to protect the
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industry to prevent more failures from energy companies. it is saying you can change the prices more often, but that means consumers are going to be facing multiple hits. rachel: this news has not been received well by energy public -- energy group. for consumers this means another big bill arise in january when they are losing a lot of energy. kailey: rachel morrison, thank you for always staying on top of this energy story for us. i am sure we will -- i'm sure we would -- i am sure we will be talking with her a lot more in the coming months. this is bloomberg. ♪
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kriti: time for the bloomberg flash to look at some of the
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biggest stories in the world right now. thanks to soaring coal prices, -- an additional $4.5 billion to sharepoint -- to shareholders and dividend points. when core has been one of the biggest winners from the global energy crunch. as much as 22 billion dollars by selling alibaba deliver to -- derivative. that allows the japanese company to raise cash immediately while keeping open the possibility of holding on to the --. kailey: kailey: i want to pick it up with some breaking news. a court in russia has given the u.s. women's basketball player brittney griner nine year sentence for the drug she was found guilty of smuggling. the nine-year sentence is what greiner has received. going to easily continue those
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discussions on a prisoner swap. guy: what is happening with the markets right now. europe going sideways today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: you opinion equities feel -- finishing the day higher. the dax is of higher 1% today. some single stock names we are focusing on. that is a picture we are watching. generally positive. this is how the session is developing. let me show you how the economy is looking like throughout the day then we will talk about what is happening in europe.
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seeing more of a fade over in the united states. it seems to be stabilizing a little right now. that is largely because of the influence --. high rates for equity over the last few days after that strong july. some of the u.k. assets, we want to give you an idea what is going on with that bleak outlook. 1/10 of 1%. regardless of the outlook we saw today, 50 basin -- 50 basis points was not a huge -- the u.k. to year yield today beginning to turn around. it has gone from positive to negative. nevertheless, given 50 basis points, you would have thought pride -- likely the kaman -- the economic outlook.
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5250 better indicator of what is happening in the u.k.. more positive than the 51 of 2/10 of 7% --. retail construction -- energy unsurprising we have seen energy today and the crude price over on both sides today. cost cuts. what we have on the board behind me today, a company caught aggressively. that cuts through the numbers very clearly today. up about 14%. bloomberg looking at aggressive cost cuts.
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the question is can you cut. wrapping up on credit agricole. beating on a number of lines today when it comes to the numbers and on capital, which is quite significant as well. kailey: let's talk more about both of those banks you were just discussing and first-order -- and first start with credit agricole. bloomberg spoke with -- bloomberg spoke with the ceo earlier today. take a look. [video clip] >> our customers need financing for their activities. we are here. we are ready to land. this is the main driver of our activities. i am not saying we will have the same level of revenue and reserve in the next quarter, but the trend on which we are stable.
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kailey: credit squeeze is looking to cut thousands of jobs. what are the numbers we are talking and what divisions and in what time frames? >> these are pretty aggressive. they are looking at cutting thousands of jobs. about 50,000 people. it sounds like to 50,000 perhaps. they are looking at that office, middle office and trouble to the investment bank as well. guy: what are people saying about how effective cost cuts could be? tom: it is a really interesting thing. the reason it worked in areas of compliance, risk, it was very difficult to cut back. part of the criticism is it is very tilted to things like --
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that emerge out of those cuts. they cut back in other areas and became slightly lopsided. and now they are not benefiting at all. they just don't have many people there. kailey: it struck me that this story comes days after bloomberg was running a story that credit suisse was handing out a million dollars a month to retain talent. they want to keep people there in light of the scandal. i have to imagine if you have to pay more from -- pay more for each person, --. is that what is going on here? tom: what credit suisse has come out and said is we want to turn to a n model. that is what they happen to do right now. there is so much bad news around credit suisse investment bank. they are in a tough spot. they are looking to cut costs and retain their most valuable ploy ease.
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that is a difficult dance to do. guy: is this a business that can continue to standalone queers -- that can continue to stand alone? would you wait until some of these cost cuts have come through put on a more even keel? i am wondering what the strategy is as the industry watches what is happening at credit suisse. it feels like a specific issue rather than an industry issue. tom: anyone who has been looking at credit suisse over the years are certainly looking again now. look at the economic backdrop, it is just that calculation. you want to find that moment where credit suisse is in such a tough spot that they will actually sell. any sort of banker does not want to sell their own bank. a real resistance to jet -- a real resistance to that just the ego alone.
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whatever credit suisse buys, it is difficult to see someone coming out a white night. kailey: is what you are saying either it is going to be the white night or he is not question mark is it that black and white? tom: he is known as being a very good cost-conscious operator. if you can push these costs through, maybe that is how the bank gets back to being stable with slimline operations. maybe they will start to see that reflected in the share price. guy: bloomberg's tom metcalf on credit suisse. the s&p 100 has basically finished flat today.
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the dax and the -- are up. up by around .6%. in europe right now, the bank of england front and center. we will be keeping the ties on that cable show 5:00 p.m. on london side. 5:00 p.m. on radio. kailey: coming up, we are going to take a look at travel., kayak and opentable are following this right -- despite a strong earning report. ceo and president glenn vogel joins us next. and sticking with travel as we head to the break, airbnb ceo tells bloomberg television he doesn't seem consumers pulling back from that travel spending. >> whatever happens to the economy, people are still going
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>> you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keep you up-to-date with news around the world. i am ritika gupta. china has never planned an attack over taiwan itself. military exercises around speaker pelosi's visit to
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taiwan. president biden calls the sentence unacceptable. there have been talks between the u.s. and russia about a prisoner swap. the justice department says for police officers in louisville, kentucky face civil join charges for the death of breonna taylor. they opened fire after his boyfriend fired his gun. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. kailey: travel has been making a strongest comeback since the pandemic. >> we are having an incredible summer. >> the industry continues to
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benefit from two years work of pent demand. >> really hungry for any type of experience. >> i have never seen such a greater force with people who travel. kailey: the picture is an all too rosy looking forward. from canceled flights to -- have contributed to some doubt for the rest of the year. bookings in the second quarter -- a slowdown in july and a forecast in july putting a damper on market expectations for the remainder of the year. the stock is down about 2.7% right now. glenn vogel ceo and president joins us right now. talk about that moderation in demand. to what degree are you seeing? glenn: we are very happy. we came in with the second-quarter last night. great numbers, very positive.
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we talked about how what we have on our books right now for the third quarter is ahead of where we were in 2019. we said we are about 15% ahead of where we would be in 2019 at this point. on the euro basis, dollars. the fact is we still are strong demand. travelers are continuing to recover. july was work in the second quarter. but the entire recovery has had some volatility. it has not been linear. at some months have been better than other months. absolutely more travel coming. guy: this slowdown is not a trend? that is the point you're making here? glenn: one month does not make a trend, certainly. we have seen throughout the two and a half years of this terrible pandemic, there have
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been ups and downs and there have been points where travelers rush back to get to travel. what we saw in may was very impressive. when things started to open up again, we suddenly had 22% higher room nights than we did in the same month we did in 2019. that was huge. some people say, maybe that -- the bookings we will see in july. i am looking for the long-term. the long-term is more travel. kailey: how to set breakup regionally? we have spent a lot of time on this program today talking about how europe is toast and it is facing a serious inflation crisis with the growth outlook deteriorating. that is a lot of where your sales come from. most are overseas, not in the u.s.. what are you seeing on a regional basis? glenn: there is no doubt there is more impact happening in europe than the u.s.. we see the other side to though.
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asia has been waning. in the second quarter, asia has not been showing as many room nights as we did in 2019 and the second quarter. that is an opportunity. that is hopefully coming back. there are -- all over the world. our job is to provide a better service and therefore we get more share on what is a growing industry. guy: can you speak more specifically to what you see happening in europe and what you expect to happen going forward? the only silver lining i can find in the economic data in europe at the moment is that there is a strong tourism seen particularly happening in southern europe. i am assuming that is what you are seeing happening right now. how stable do you think that is? glenn: everybody has a crystal ball. we all make them really cloudy right now trying to figure out what is going to happen over the next couple of quarters, it is difficult. last year we had different predictions.
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my point is, i don't know what the short impact -- with the short-term impact is going to be. for my business, maintaining the best services, the best price as travel comes back so we are able to get more share of them. i cannot control inflation. i cannot control issues regarding wind -- natural gas in europe in the winter. what we can control is how good of a service can we provide the customers who are travelers and our customers who are suppliers. kailey: the outlook in europe has been a weaker euro. given your so dependent on those european sales, what are you expecting through the remainder of the year? glenn: it definitely impacts our results. the euros that translate into dollars look like a lower number. you also end up with american to
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travel to europe. it looks like europe is on sale right now for a lot of americans. that is the positive impact. we are very global. don't have fx changes throughout the world. guy: do you think there has been a long term change in the way that people travel, glenn? i hear this time and time again. i talked to a lot of airline ceos and they believe there has been a permanent shift. the pandemic has changed people's behavior over the long-term. you talked moments ago about how you have seen more travel down the road. -- how you see more travel down the road. are we more inclined for that happening? glenn: over the last 20 years, travel has consistently grown faster than gdp. some people are talking about what the pandemic did, it changed the nature of travel in some areas. in terms, first people using the non-hotel accommodations. in the second quarter, we did
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almost a third of our business in the non-hotel. a home, an apartment, a villa. people have tried that during the pandemic because they want to be away from people. now they put back into their considerations, going forward, what type of property do you want. the second thing is, people working from home more, people are now beginning to take longer weekend type trips. they work thursday through friday. they were work somewhere else friday afternoon and enjoy more travel. kailey: you talk about alternative accommodations. those were about 20% in the second quarter that you just recorded. how are you thinking of taking market shares? glenn: it is a strategic priority for us. we know in some parts of the world, we do not have the biggest share of that business that we should. primarily in the u.s.. we need to improve upon.
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one thing we brought out recently was a property insurance. a way that if somebody wants to put their property up on our platform, they will be covered in case something goes wrong if a host or something damages. there are also liability issues two. a lot of areas we need to improve upon so that we influence anybody else in the state in the u.s.. guy: glenn, great to catch up. thank you for your time. clint vogel booking holdings, ceo and president. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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>> u.s. stocks are going a whole lot of nowhere right now. bloomberg's abigail -- is tracking it for us. abigail: the nasdaq down --. we are looking at the first three week scheme since the last -- since the end of march into april. we have very solid gains. let's see what happens. there is a little bit of a cautionary tale here. you have this big losing stretch into july. the nasdaq 100 is impressively above. he was talking about how this could really be the bottom. in the nasdaq 100, also software and hardware, we are not seeing a break.
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crude oil now at 88. we were just talking before this segment, what is going on here is not really clear. a two day moving average, you just have tremendous selling pressure. the same is true for -- down 8%. they are planning on inflation in 2023 and 2024. sellers are in charge there. we will be digging into that more as we go on. petroleum, they beat -- halliburton, just to give you a sense of the pressure this is under. where we are not seeing pressure, we are seeing big gains. the housing sector, we have the dirty year mortgage rates here in the u.s. at 4.9%. the first time it has gone below 5% since april. take ethan allen interiors scoring up.
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guy: the next 24 hours are going to be busy. today, earnings less to deal with. doordash, yelp, expedia, tripadvisor. virgin galactic, warner bros., discovery, biden hosting a labor union's meeting on inflation reduction act. and of course we have the tesla agm. that is a prelude to the main event tomorrow. kailey: the jobs report for july here in the u.s. coming up tomorrow on friday. that is going to be the big one to watch. from revlon and wpp. it could have some major
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>> from the world of politics -- >> i think republicans are doomed. i think they relied on what joe manchin was saying, that he would not forward with anything anti-waited until three hours after the chip sack would pass. >> to the world of business. >> cpr inflation is expected over 13% since q4 this year. and to remain elevated levels for much of 2023. >> this is balance of power with david westin.


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