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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  August 9, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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dani: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. these are the stories that set your agenda. manus:. on mar-a-lago.
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the fbi searches the florida residents of donald trump as part of an investigation to whether he took classified documents from the white house. gas prices fall and expectations for u.s. inflation declined sharply. citi says it would not be surprised by a 100 basis point hike in core inflation is stronger-than-expected. kenya votes. africa's largest economy heads to the polls to elect its next president. we are live in nairobi. it is a moving story about mar-a-lago. we will have all of that in just a moment. i am more a lit up by the risk of a 100 basis point hike in september, takes me back. dani: there is a lot of talk of that. you have goldman talking about disinflation to come. you will take a look at gasoline. let me show you what equities are doing.
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it does seem that this rally we saw last month is taking a bit of a pause as we await the cpi data. yes, we are higher and s&p 500 futures are up .2%, nasdaq peters up as well., kalanovich says it is time to trim equities and perhaps move over to commodities because he is still positive on the overall growth environment. european stocks are catching up to the downdraft of yesterday's nvidia move. let me show you what nvidia did that write-down the entire equity -- dragged down the entire equity market. that chipmaker missing revenue by over $1 billion, injecting fear that electrical component demand is weakening. manus:, on a bench talking about
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the performance gap, a bit like the midyear review. hopefully you don't have a performance cap on this show. i haven't -- let's talk about gas. from the sizzle to fizzle. down for eight weeks in a row. gas in the u.s. for dollars and six cents, that is all about white house cares about. gas stations might be selling 9% less gas and this time last year. seeing the words out of his mouth where gas was down for 50 days in a row. novogratz on the tape yesterday. mike trying to tighten it up. we are at $23,000 at the moment close to $24,000. and oil up, iran talks set to
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end without a deal, what will that do to supply dynamics? and yields, citi saying simply you could be looking at a 100 basis point hike in september. what scale outscore -- of core cpi do you need to see for a 100 basis point move? my last guest said it would be a panic and a monster move. dani: bruce einhorn will be covering the fbi raid on donald trump's home. jennifer zabasajja is in nairobi for the kenyan election. and annabelle droulers will take you through markets. the fbi has rated the florida residents of donald trump as part of an investigation into whether he took classified documents from the white house when he left office. a development that could possibly overshadow his run for presidency in 2024. bruce, bring us up to speed.
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bruce: dani, we know that the raid started i the morning and lasted until 6:00 p.m. the agents were looking for potentially classified material related to the investigation of documents that went from the white house to mar-a-lago, according to a person familiar. in january, the national archives retrieved 15 boxes of documents. the investigation is looking potentially into this. it is worth pointing out that the fbi does not just get to raid by itself. they have to have search warrant's, so this was signed off by a judge. former president trump has denounced this as an overreach by the department of justice. other republicans have denounced it. the department of justice has
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not commented. the white house would only say they did not know in advance of this, and referred other questions to doj. the january 6 committee also not commenting. this is ongoing. we will probably get more details in the coming days. manus: trump put his statement out on save america, it is prosecution all misconduct and weaponization of the justice system. let's see how this story develops, this attentional -- bruce einhorn on the latest. staying with the u.s., one year inflation expectations dropped the lowest in february according to the latest new york fed survey. wall street positioning for a bigger fed hike. citi putting 100 basis points the table for september on a stronger-than-expected core inflation. let's bring in enda curran. it's good to get frisky two way
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action in the rates market, citi, lumped me up with 100 basis points, but does that stack up with the fed in new york rolling over? enda: the ny fed indicates the peak inflation debate is back in play. on a one-year horizon, consumers now looking at 6%, three years just over 3%. this is a survey of 1300 on households read the reason expectations for price hikes are coming down is because of unexpected fall back on an prices forecast, rent and food. this new york survey suggests that the peak inflation might be close. we will get inflation data officially tonight with the market saying it may have accelerated by 8.7 percent, down from 9.1%. it almost suggests that the u.s. has had peak inflation. to your point about citigroup
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and others calling for more jumbo hikes, if we get inflation close to expectations or higher, the fed will have more work to do especially after the jobs report that was so strong suggesting they have a long way to go until inflation is back under control. if it is a downside surprise, tomorrow will be about peak inflation in the u.s. it is upside, more people will talk about a hundred basis points. dani: also interesting to see bets of a rate cut by mid next year, enda curran in hong kong. now to politics. kenya is heading to the polls today. it is east africa's biggest economy and has been expanding rapidly. developing countries like kenya have been pummeled by inflation, food shortages and increasing debt gardens. let's bring in jennifer zabasajja in nairobi, what are
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going to be the main issues that come from this election today? jennifer: inflation is the central issue here. it is different all around the world but in emerging economies like kenya it hits differently. it was up for a fit straight month, eight point three percent. people are paying more for a lot of essential items. what we have seen from this outgoing government is that they have been able to provide some subsidies. the question going forward is how to handle this. because the country is dealing with a mounting debt pile, they have had to pay a significant portion of their funds straight to debt. it's unlikely the next president will be able to ignore this
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issue. it is creating debt distress for this economy and they will need to handle it going forward. manus: enjoy the day there. i knew you have some guests coming up. let's see how the day plays out politically. jennifer zabasajja on the ground in nairobi. let's check on how markets are faring. annabelle droulers is in hong kong, what are the risks? annabelle: pretty subdued. not much driving the direction in general. volumes are just below the 20 day moving average. major catalysts are earnings. we're still focused on that. in terms of softbank, down the most since april now, off sharply in tokyo because it reported its biggest quarterly loss on record. and nvidia earnings also playing into the chipmaker outlook for asia. tokyo electron just slumping, we
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did see that company posting a miss. alibaba did sharply decline but has recovered earlier losses. at has laid off about 10,000 workers in the space of three months. keep an eye this morning on hong kong property stocks because the government could be waiving double stamp duties for chinese buyers of property stocks which is supported for the sector here. dani: annabelle, thank you very much. coming up with manus and me, the ark investment ceo says the u.s. is already in recession but predict we will be out of it by next year. more on that story next. manus: plus, one decade's hottest bond market is imploding, china. we bring you the big take. ♪
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>> we believe we're in a recession. two consecutive quarters of real gdp declines is the beginning of that definition. three consecutive months of declines in leading indicators which we have now would suggest the same. dani: ark investment ceo cathie wood on the state of the economy. we have been concentrating on one element of the state of the economy, yesterday's ny fed survey. manus: and you have got a lot of it's thinking it is time to trim new york stocks and buy commodities, one of these staunchest bulls saying it is time to close that gap. ahead of course evi, there is the debate literally across the board. this is the gtv live, inflation expectations for 1 and 3-year
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inflation expectations rolling over. let's bring in the mashreq head of fixed income at mashreq mashreq capital, a hundred basis points could be in play if we get a hot core cpi tomorrow. my question is, what is the risk of a much more aggressive core cpi and what would it take to really put a hundred in play? oliver: i would say it is possible. especially as they do keeps coming in hot. we are looking at the same data as the fed. we will know in september what the hike will become whether it is 75, 100 or even 50. i think the market will reprice in the run-up to the fed meeting as well. we personally don't think it will be 100. nfp as a lagging indicator of unemployment is usually the last to rollover.
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the inflation expectations he have put up are leading indicators it is slowing down some 100 is not necessary. dani: oliver, good morning, do you think things are slowing down enough that it is time to switch to the recession trade? what does the recession trade look like, if so? oliver: it looks like investment grade bonds particularly at the long end of the curve. i think if the fed continues to hike which it will, every time the fed hikes, it will jack up the two year yield. you have seen that recently with 2's increasing much more than 10's and 30's which are inverting. that inversion recession trade has further to play out. we've been buying long-duration bonds a few weeks now, we have had a good set of returns and expect that to continue as inflation finally falls. manus: is at the last hurrah for
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stocks, july was just like a mysticalo cote d'azur dance? oliver: i like the way you put it. i was pleasantly surprised by cathie wood, she is usually optimistic but even she thinks there is more pain ahead. tech stocks will base the brunt of rate rises. -- face the brunt of rate rises. manus: a citi analysts saying at the moment, the sell side is the most animalisti -- optimistic. they reached people is just after equities have, could we see that dramatic stock market plunge? oliver: it has already hit bear market. the stock market has had a bear market bounce. i don't think it will plunge is the as in covid or the gsa.
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i think there is further weakness when you have a high cost of capital for corporate's and higher cost of interest for consumers, but will hit equity earnings eventually. q2 earnings have been decent but probably q3 earnings take a leg. powell himself said that at the press conference. we are looking at data points, the trough, i.e. the bottom, and for the fed to turn properly dovish. manus: you've still got hot jobs numbers. that was a pretty dramatic drop so maybe the edifice is beginning to crack. hyatt altogether because you had already -- tie it altogether because you had said we will see continue dollar strength. oliver: usually they go hand in
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hand but i think commodities have had such a strong run and if you have a slowdown in growth data you will see commodities cool off as well. we have seen that the last few weeks and expect them to continue to cool down. manus: off 15% from the highest, much further to go? oliver: further to go. don't pressure me to put an exact figure. [laughter] but there is further weakness in commodities for sure. manus: dani, jump in. dani: ok, if we are about to see some weakness. if we are about to see the recession trade, how does the dollar stand up in this environment? is it not a recession that finally puts gravity back to divorce when it comes to the greenback? oliver: you mean further dollar strength? dani: in terms of continued dollar strength, can we see it if we finally see the u.s. enter a clear recession? oliver: definitely, yeah it is
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time to hunker down. in recession you go to your traditional safe haven asset classes and the dollar is one of them. we are dollar-based investors but we have exposure in europe in equities and we have hedge that back to the dollar all year. our ftse exposure has been the only positive returning asset class we have had all year. we are keeping that hedge on because we think there is further weakness for european currencies. manus: when you look at allocation of high-yield relative to investment grade, are they outright positions or are they treated against one another, how do you look at that position? oliver: we look at it in the sense that we prefer ig. over hy. that means risk off, you want to go away from equities and high-yield and be in investment grade bonds.
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we still have some high-yield and equities but not much. manus: which high-yield is most under risk, just before we close? oliver: i would say the high-yield corporate's because they are likely to move in line with equities. the spread is too much, 450 basis points, i think they will blowback above the 600 basis points we saw a couple weeks ago, more pain for high-yield. dani: oliver kettlewell, head of fixed income and global portfolios at mashreq capital. coming up, it is all about inflation as the cost of living continues to dominate the debate. the latest on the u.k.'s leadership contest. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to bloomberg
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daybreak: europe. i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. let's focus on the u.k. and the two candidates in the race to become the next prime minister have repeatedly sparred over the best way to protect consumers from inflation and how to avoid recession. let's get more with lizzy burden. we have gdp numbers out on friday. how is this going to play into the race itself? lizzy: we're expecting a point 2 percent drop. that has to do with the bank holiday to celebrate between's -- the queen's jubilee. inflation is expected to hit not just double digits but to go above 13%, an urgent call to address that.
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former prime minister brown has called for a way to address that. but we have heard that there will not be radical fiscal policy until we get a new prime minister, which we will know september for. which is worrying for many that the economy is idle at this moment. in terms of how the two candidates will address the cost-of-living crisis, this is the fault line in the contest so far. liz truss says she wants to cut taxes from day one, rishi sunak says tax cuts won't help the people that needed most. he says to continue the support he started as chancellor and fund it by the efficiency savings throughout the government. manus: truss's number is 40 billion in terms of a fiscal pulse. what would truss due to the bank
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of england, is it about the mandate but leaving the independence integral and whole? lizzy: markets hope she would leave independence alone but we can't be sure if that will come into question during the mandate review. one of her allies has had the bank of england will look into whether they should have exclusive independence over interest rates. she has also talked about money supply and getting tougher over it. the telegraph reported she is looking at controlling nominal gdp instead of targeting inflation. we know nominal gdp is prone to revisions and there is a lag in the data, but the point is if you are going to touch the bank of england's target in the middle of an inflation crisis, that is worrying. bloomberg has had an inteview with the former
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chancellor and he says it would be a big air or to do that at this point. -- error to do that at this point. manus: we are waiting for the cbi to come up tomorrow in the u.s. we will see you later on in the show. it was sizzling, now it has fizzled. this is that gas chart, i love this. gas is down for 50 days in a row. dani: it is starting to creep into inflation expectations. we talked about the ny fed earlier in the show. goldman sachs saying not only are they expecting slowing inflation but disinflation because since that june peak gasoline prices have fallen 20%. but we have talked to executives as well who say the worst is over when it comes to some of the supply chain kinks. manus: may be that opens
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bandwidth in terms of where the yields go, in terms of disinflation and jobs data is a lag, we can debate that. the election is underway in kenya. we are live in nairobi with the team, jennifer along with all of driving the bus into the election in nairobi. this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was younger, i may have did some stupid things
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manus: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai with dani burger in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. dani: raid on mar-a-lago.
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the fbi searches the residents of donald trump trump as part of an investigation into whether he took documents from the white house. inflation expectations decline but citi says it would not be surprised by 100 basis points if inflation comes in stronger-than-expected. east africa's largest economy heads to the polls to elect its next president, we are live in nairobi. manus: we are indeed. heading to the polls, the country is east africa's largest economy, developing countries have been pummeled by rising inflation, rates, food shortages and swiftly increasing debt burdens. spring in -- let's bring in jennifer with a special guest. good day. jennifer: good day to you, too. we have kenyans queuing in the
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polls. we have the two candidates, the deputy prime minister. what is central to this election is inflation. it is happening all across the globe. when you think about emerging economies like kenya, it hits differently. 8.3% is what we saw for the fif th straight month in july. cost-of-living goes up, cost of essential commodities like fuel, maize, cooking oil that's going up and kenyans are frustrated by that. when he think about the population, the world bank assesses that 1 3rd avenue kenyans are living under property. government has had to subsidize some of these items. we will need the next leader to think about this especially when
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you think about mounting debt problems the country is facing. our next guest well get us into more of the economic troubles we're seeing here. your bond, thank you for joining us this morning. yvonne: thanks for having me. jennifer: let's talk about some of the issues the economy is facing. when we think about inflation and debt and unemployment, what is most detrimental to kenya's economy? yvonne: i think we're experiencing a fiscal challenge, in particular, the debt distress. unfortunately, with high inflation whereby the government is having to subsidize basic goods, which only as to the fiscal pressure at a time when they should be undergoing fiscal consolidation and trying to stop
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the escalation of debt. dani: let's dig into that a little more. how long do you see inflation actually getting worse? does it continue to get worse before it gets better? yvonne: we expect inflation to continue in the second half of the year. if you compare oil prices to a year ago, there is upside when it comes to energy prices and also food prices. we do think there is further upside risk in terms of inflation which as you are aware is outside of the target band of 2.5 percent, inflation is at 8.3%. so there is certainly risk on the upside there. jennifer: when we think about what the government can do to step in, we mentioned the subsidies we have seen over the past months. but that can't necessarily continue when you look at the
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debt outlook for kenya, so what is the next leader need to target when it comes to debt and recovering this economy into better shape? yvonne: we have to stick to the current fiscal consolidation program which is bringing down the budget deficit. we have seen progress in terms of gdp increasing in kenya, allowing the slowdown in terms of debt to gdp. the two candidates have different approaches in terms of the debt situation. kenya requires debt restructuring which means the company will be unable to meet its obligations. whereas ruto believes the country has to meet its obligation. odinga seems to be the more socialist leaning candidate,
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looking at social aid. he is looking at pledging $50 a month to households which of course, as to the budget expenses. and that is a bit concerning because it may undermine this fiscal consolidation trajectory the country is on. jennifer: can you do the same things at the same time as odinga has noted, can you put those things at the same time and still restructure the debt? yvonne: that is certainly the challenge because if you are seeking to restructure or not, the country should be on a fiscal consolidation path. if they seek to move to a more social aid type of budget, then it means they will have to cut spending in other areas. under the kenyatta presidency,
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there has been infrastructure spend, so maybe odinga will go toward social aid and cut down on infrastructure aid to accommodate the policies he is pledging. jennifer: yvonne mhango, thank you for joining us today. i'll send it back to you guys. dani: that was jennifer zabasajja there with yvonne mhango of renaissance capital. let's get to the first word news. laura: federal investigators have rated the former home of -- florida home of donald trump. he called the move prosecut orial misconduct. it was part of an investigation into whether trump took classified documents from the white house.
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trump issued a statement saying it is part of an attack aimed at keeping him from running for president in 2024. the u.s. is preparing $1 billion in aid to ukraine, the largest drawdown of inventor east since the start of the invasion. the package includes long-range ammunition, antitank weapons, medical vehicles and supplies. it will bring the total u.s. security assistance for ukraine to almost $10 million. hong kong is considering having the stamp duty for mainland chinese buyers to shore up the city's economy. the council made commitments in an interview with bloomberg television. foreign buyers of residential property need to pay a 30% levy on all purchases under moves introduced in the past decade to cull home prices. the waiving of the stamp duty may reduce that level to 15%.
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>> mainland professionals have been clamoring for the stamp duty to be waived for them. we have received a lot of requests in that direction. >> will you do that? >> all measures are under consideration. laura: grammy-winning singer songwriter and actress olivia newton-john has died after a 30 year battle with breast cancer. the australian singer had some of the biggest hits of the 1970's and 80's and is best remembered for her role in the movie grease. she passed away on her ranch in southern california. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. dani: laura wright here in
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london. and manus, a little breaking news in your part of the world on summer -- earnings? manus: one of the biggest chemical makers in the world, it has its hands in switzerland, this is sabic, one of the beasts of the tadawul, margins will continue to be under pressure in the second half. the profit for the second quarter came in ahead of estimates, $7.93 million, well ahead of a year ago. beating the consensus estimate. the estimate we had was $6.22 million, that gives you a sense of the scale of the beat. 1.7 billion riyal beat. sales were a beat. they are talking about margins under pressure. we will put in the request to
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the ceo. we have spoken to him a couple of times in terms of his readiness to talk to us. let's see. dani: coming up on the program, we will talk about one of the decade's hottest bond markets now imploding. that is of course in china. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai, dani burger in london. it is the end of an era, one of the hottest bond markets, the chinese property debt market. 203 billion dollar market that once yielded several deals a week and had portfolios across the world. on sure investors swallowing almost all of the losses. joining us now is rebecca choong wilkins with the big take. it was such a splendid idea but it has proved rather unpalatable, how does it unravel? >> it really started off with beijing deciding to start cleaning up its debt market, in
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particular developers. some of the riskiest borrowers out there for china. when you talk to market veterans, it was unfathomable that the crackdown on property would go as far as it did. it all fundamentally comes down to this principle of common prosperity and trying to close the gap between the rich and the poor in china. developers were seen as having involved in raising a lot of debt, creating a lot of risk, and ultimately potentially this sort of frothy property market that threatened to pop. dani: and perhaps people should have seen this coming. but why didn't anyone foresee this collapse? and what does it mean for this market's recovery? rebecca: although this was a jump on yields, returns of something like 10, 15% on these bonds.
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a market itself had actually seen relatively few defaults. only one major property firm had ever defaulted before we saw this last big wave. so there really wasn't a lot of risk. there was a reason that the idf too big to fail was prominent in china. many of these pillars of strength of the chinese property market that have since seen default. it was hard to imagine that authorities would let them fail because they played such an important role in the economy, contributing about a fifth to g dp. and important in terms of palm buyers. manus: this is when people who issued the debt, sell it, market it, gorge themselves on fees. we have seen it before. we saw it in america in the housing crisis and
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mortgage-backed security prices. the only thing is the chinese have let it rip and fall apart which nobody ever thought would happen. but there is a by homebuyers, so this is a very unique deviation to that landscape we saw in '08, isn't it? rebecca: there is a fundamental difference. there is one thing and analyst commented is a thing of nightmares for authorities. we saw this real determination to clean up the market, it has always try to make sure homebuyers are protected. and it does fundamentally change the dynamic that we're seeing homebuyers that had bought projects and are paying mortgages on projects that have not been delivered now boycut otting mortgage payments as well. there is really mounting pressure on local governments to
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make sure that one, homes are ultimately delivered. but two, to quell of the social unrest element. dani: we got news not that long ago that china ordered a surprise audit of the trust industry which has had risky loans and developers. rebecca, thank you very much. joining us with the latest, that is our big take. you can read more of their excellent reporting, and i big take go is where you had on your terminal. let's head to one of our top stories. the fbi has rated the fl -- raided the florida residents of donald trump as part of an investigation into whether he declassified documents from the white house. joining us now is bloomberg's bruce einhorn. bruce, this is not something we see every day.
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quite the story here. a surprise raid, what do we know about what the fbi was looking for? bruce: this is unprecedented for there to be an fbi raid of a former president's residence. it started in the morning and last until 6:00 p.m. according to former president trump, they went into the safe. that safe itself was something not many people even knew where it was. the location of the safe itself was a secret. according to a person familiar with the matter, they were searching for documents related to investigation into potential mishandling of classified material. the national archives in january had retrieved 15 boxes of documents, some of them including classified information
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that had made their way to mar-a-lago after former president trump left the white house. the department of justice is not commenting on this. the white house has not commented other than to say they had no advance knowledge of this. the january 6 committee which has also been looking into trump's actions had no comment. former president trump himself denounced the raid, accused the justice department of weaponizing the justice system. republicans, some republicans have come out and criticized this. we will likely be hearing more from them today and tomorrow as the repercussions of this continue to unfold. manus: we just got the words of the former president there, prosecutional misconduct and
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weaponization of the justice system by democrats who desperately don't want me to run for president. of course, this is one of a number of investigations. how does this relate to the other investigations? i know the national archives got 15 boxes back from mar-a-lago in january and they were handed over only because of the threat of legal action. this is not in isolation so to speak. bruce: there are quite a few investigations underway. the department of justice has been speaking with former administration officials including vice president mike pence's chief of staff related to events around january 6. such as the potential appointment of fake electors.
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there is that investigation. there is another in fulton county, georgia related to former president trump's call to the secretary of state asking him to find votes for him to overturn joe biden's victory. there is an investigation in new york state regarding financial dealings of the trump organization. one important thing to keep in mind is when the fbi conducts a raid they don't do this on their own, they have to get sign off from a judge, there is a warrant procedure. this is something a lot of people had to sign off on. given the sensitivity of the matter, it's possible it went to the very top of the doj, the attorney general himself. dani: bruce, thank you very much. we will have more next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the fed increased money supply at a rate we have never seen before. and they are slowly withdrawing that. there is still a ton of money in the system. there was excess savings in retail getting worn down some. but there is monster cash because people got pretty nervous and we had a dramatic selloff in the last year. i don't think we will see money flowing and moving but i don't think it is armageddon yet either. will bitcoin get through $30,000 , we will see. i am doubtful. i think we will probably be on this range now. i would be happy if we're in a
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$22,000 or $30,000 range for a while with the next move breaking up. it is at the top of its range. now it's got a real story. but i don't see the mania we saw in 2021 or 2017 reigniting. dani: think galaxy digital ceo speaking there. markets all still waiting for tomorrow's cpi but when it comes to inflation, we have got to talk about gasoline. manus: this will embolden the view that maybe we are moving from peak inflation to a disinflationary environment. from sizzle to fizzle, $4.06 four a gallon of gas in the united states of america,
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down for eight weeks in a row. five month low, and that matters more at the ballot box and pump. dani: if it rhymes, then it is absolutely true. them's the rules in this market. sizzle to bezel. inflation expectations are coming down sharply. we awaits tomorrow's cpi number. more markets up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> welcome to "bloomberg markets europe." cash trade is less than 60 minutes away.


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