tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg August 25, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
guy: european equities are higher volume is lower. the main story out of europe, a power prices continuing to surge and surge. that's the story, the content of the close starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: a little bit of bullishness
in european equity. i don't how much of a price signal there really is there. let's talk about euro-dollar. 99.8 is where we are trading now. the -- toggle euro-dollar .998 is where we are trading right now. a lot of people arguing it's all about price and what's happening in the power markets. this is one year ahead power prices, a look at that number. we are 900, your eyes hurts just looking at this. 10 times where we were a year ago. europe is in real trouble. we are up a 14% today. basically saying it will not be able to put out as much powers of thought going into the winter. that's another big problem with europe. kailey: it is so striking data
to look at that $900 figure next equity markets gaining in europe on the day. we are also gaining on the day in the u.s.. so volume is lighter than usual. waiting for chairman powell speech at jackson hole. a real gain led by technology but the nasdaq 100 up. chinese tech edr as well, the dragon china indexes up after a report of dow jones of the u.s. and china getting closer to an agreement on auditing those firms in hong kong. i didn't bother including anything in the bond market. literally we are going nowhere, we're waiting for chairman powell. it's a weaker dollar on the day. guy: but only just and you do have to wonder what the reason for that is today. i'm not sure the market signals really are. the only signal that's really worth watching here in europe right now is what's happening in
the power market. their ongoing concerns about what the russians do with piping that gas into europe. it's reaching into the market in such a big way. the scale of this chart is i watering for you look at what's happening. power prices are stable. a bit of a spike and then we have solely go parabolic. 900 and people are talking about this going much higher. someone joked earlier on they will need a bigger screen to capture what's happening in europe power prices as they go ever higher. that could be something we all have to worry about, are we going to power those and keep the lights on. that's the biggest question. we talked earlier about this, a bloomberg opinion columnist. this is what he had to say about these prices. >> it's can it be a
cost-of-living crisis. we see it in the u.k. and you see the reaction in the u.k. much earlier than you are seeing in continental europe. and on top of that it's good to be massive demand instruction going on. so europe is looking at a tough six to nine months. guy: goldman sachs senior global economist joining us now. we had a survey out earlier on that was bleak. could have been worse i think. painting a very bleak picture for europe going into this winter, do you think your forecast or the forecast of the ecb fully capture what's happening here. >> we have been calling for a euro area recession starting in q3 several months ago. since then the news has been mixed. on the negative side they're driving even more than expected. therefore the shock is going to be larger than expected. but there are also some silver
lining, and so far we are not being able to detect damage to production in response to the energy prices -- so far. the big picture we are on a track for is forecasting starting in q3. kailey: we will talk about how monetary policymakers need to handle that but on the fiscal side what is an appropriate response to this? >> it's quite challenging. fiscal policy makers want to limit the rate to relink on. all of the same time not over incentivizing demand. it's precisely through higher prices that we will be able to make these energy savings that are required to survive. i think targeted support to the lower branch while accepting this is ultimate policy.
guy: do you think that's going to happen pretty a lot of conversations opening price caps around europe. how easy will be to get the price rise to achieve those that we talked about. the destruction without too much or too destructive consumer pain. >> different approaches. we see the gap in prices on the consumer side. is he the cpi data, and much elsewhere. that being said i think incentives to lower per gas and industrial demands per gas -- for gas. different countries follow different approaches. and so oil supply is a different effect across countries. kailey: obviously monetary policy can support -- solve the supply side issues prayed they
are just looking to reduce demand inflation rate how does the ecb or boe hike into this kind of weakness over just being able to power europe and the u.k.. >> it's a very difficult trade-off. on the one hand, a headline inflation into a lesser extent core inflation are significant at the same time, of these forecast recession euro area i think there's a risk towards a recession. i think central banks will be super focused on whether there's evidence for the second round effects. wage growth rising, and to the extent that we do see evidence for the second round effects, the hawkish seems to respond to inflation data could dominant. as most to the dovish response. -- as opposed to the dovish response. guy: the ecb believe half the
drop in the euro is accountable by the interest rate differential. do you agree with that or do you think something else is responsible in terms of trade prices? >> our fx research team has found rate differentials are a key driver with fx moves. on top of that i do think europe is going to a very negative interest rate shock that's probably also contributing to weakness in the currency we are seeing and then probably has some sort of -- in the coming months as europe enters recession. kailey: the ecb can hike enough even if their supersize hikes to stabilize the euro? >> central banks getting another 50 basis points at the meeting and than the forecast recession we have 25 basis points per
month. but the uncertainty here is quite large. market expectations of the terminal rate have swung pretty dramatically in europe over the last month. guy: back to understanding what your understanding of what's going on here. we have an energy crisis in europe, part of that is to the fact we have a very cheap currency. it's good to be hard to resolve that till the gas crisis is over. you can fix the supply-side on this front. when we see rates coming down as far as they are with the euro going up and you've got these charts here which are worth watching, they are not rescuing the euro right now. front-end rates are going higher. that shouldn't be what's happening, is there anything the ecb can do to control this environment. >> i think the ecb will remain
quite focused on the inflation outlook, and not necessarily targeting the levels for the euro. that being said, there is not a concern that the euro could beat the inflation overshoot. but i think one reason why the europe may be moving lower is the risks to the growth outlook on more suited, we have not really seen such an energy shock in modern times. and second it's possible growth in europe will be slower for several years to come because it may be a fairly persistent rise. until extra energy comes to the rescue. kailey: we have to leave it there but thank you so much, definitely difficult picture for europe. we turn to the picture in the u.s. and have the conversation about student loans.
>> time for the bloomberg business flash. citigroup is joining companies that have slowed operations in russia since the invasion of ukraine prayed the wind down consumer and commercial banking units. shares of coty are higher prayed the owner came out with the forecast, demand for beauty and personal care products is remain
resilient in the face of rising prices. >> the first half of 2022 we are seeing a single digit price increase. we are doing a second price increase this season mid single digits. there is a lot of work into the company to make sure we absorb all these increases in terms of custom goods. >> novartis plans to spin off its unit, the largest european generic company. it generated $7 billion last year, more than 18% of the parent company sales. they will now concentrate on developing --. that's her latest business flash. kailey: we are seeing a positive risk tone ahead of chairman powell speech at jackson hole tomorrow, the s&p 500 up about
7/10 of 1%. so volume is slightly lighter today than normal. down about two to three basis points on the 10 year. and then it is a weaker dollar story on this thursday before the all-important chairman powell speech on friday. we welcome our bloomberg tv and radio audiences worldwide. president biden announcing a plan to wipe out significant amounts of student loan debt for tens of millions of americans. here to sift through the details is the education secretary and david westin. mr. secretary, thank you so much for being here. i'm sure by now you are aware of some of the criticisms of the plan. the disk fuel inflation in the high cost of college tuition and that it's unfair. is this creating more economic problems than it is solving? >> absolutely not. this is a positive step forward for our country, for borrowers,
for education. the teachers i talked to yesterday said this is lifesaving -- game changing for her whose now can you use the money shall use for her loans to help her daughter go to college. changing her life in a positive way. the construction worker led to pay $170 a month in loan payments for a family member who now has to pay $37. it's making a big difference for americans who with this pandemic are struggling with this. and the intention is to help those making under $125,000 get back on their feet. 95% of the dollars will go to people making under $75,000. middle-class americans and those who are financially. kailey: is it addressing the root causes of this problem? people have to take out loans because it's extraordinarily expensive to receive a college education in america.
how do you address the affordability problem? sec. cardona: you are absolutely right. loan forgiveness on its own won't solve this problem heard we will be in the same position five years from now if we don't take this issue as a priority. we are increasing accountability at the college level. we are making sure the return on investment at colleges is greater. we are not afraid of blaming and shaming student -- institutions that are taking advantage of students. agencies are letting for-profit institutions take advantage of students and try to use predatory practices to get students to take out loans. we are really pushing colleges to make sure there's a better investment, a better return on investment, job opportunities for students when they graduate. we've increased this by improving our college scorecard. this committee kids to parents and students basically the value of the college. so many students are lured into
shiny pamphlets and great tours but at the end of the day when they get their degree they want have a great job. we are lifting up the college scorecard for parents to look at and students to look at. we are highlighting examples of colleges that are good value. we are calling out those doing a poor job and we will elevate our strategies. loan forgiveness alone will not fix the issue. guy: good morning. picking up on that point, do you think this will be a one-off or do you think this forgiveness will have to be repeated further down the road? sec. cardona: the pandemic affected all of us but it affected some more than others. we believe it's our responsibility to ensure borrowers and not worse off now than they were before the pandemic. this is the basis of the support. so the loan forgiveness is for that. the income driven repayment benefits or changes we are
making our long term. it's not only loan forgiveness it's also making sure loan payments are reasonable. we can ask people to pay off more than they can afford monthly so we are making those changes. we don't have the issues we have before. we improve this to make sure loan forgiveness that was passed by congress happens in the system was broken before and we are fixing it. i believe this is a one time score but the policies we are introducing will of long-term impact and help generations to come. david: i want to follow up, we have a problem obviously. we certainly don't want to impose burdens on people get afford them. at the same time he can fix it unless you know what caused it. i'm not sure, hurting your answers why we got in the situation, why we have these tuitions outstripping inflation. sec. cardona: you've all seen
the line charts were college tuition is far out seated increases prayed it's gotten out of control. and unfortunately no one is calling out the lack of return on investment. people are graduating with $70,000 in debt with a degree that doesn't land you a job, and is calling that out. we are going to address that. predatory loan practices have also been called out. we've shut down places that have done that. we are going to increase accountability on higher education, we will go after those taking advantage of students that are leading to college debt that's extremely high. so we are increasing that end of it. so i think that's really important that listeners hear loan forgiveness is a part of what we are doing, income driven repayment is another part. increasing accountability in the higher education institutions is another part.
david: let's talk about the accountability part. naming and shaming is one thing, getting more data. why don't you have the money to do the talking. why don't you say we will not make loans for tuition to institutions that don't graduate a certain percentage of students within six years. because as a practical matter those college and universities are looking for the money into their coffers more than naming and shaming. sec. cardona: the strategy in the office of the undersecretary and the secondary education are working with universities to improve practices and policies. ensuring that funding education is there. but also making sure we cut off supports where institutions are not meeting their end of the deal. we are in the process of doing that. we do believe that there is a role for higher education. david: would you cut off loans to certain education institutions? sec. cardona: i can get back to
you on what in -- strategies we've done. off the top of my head of knocking to start naming strategies i want to make sure i provide accurate information. i am proud of the work we are doing to increase accountability and the work we are doing with institutions to help them evolve to make sure they are meeting needs with good opportunities. david: people under $125,000. for the loan forgiveness, i think you said 90% were under $75,000. there's a lot of people who make less who never went to college. they get no benefit from this. when the money be better spent to address the fundamental question of people who don't have enough resources rather than just the ones went to college. sec. cardona: for that argument i feel like some of those folks are helping pay their child's tuition. i've talked to folks who said i paid my college loan off but if
my neighbor goes into default it's going to hurt my local economy and what were anticipating is the number of defaults would be a lot higher if we didn't provide support. it is unfortunate that the pandemic happened but it put some people in a worse position than others and we are in a position to help those who need help, much like we did with small businesses. when the pandemic affected them wanted to make sure they weren't closing their doors. we are doing the same, reinvesting to get on their feet. david: can you guarantee us right now that won't be extended further? this is the third extension. sec. cardona: we know that coupling the repayment restart of the loan forgiveness was something that was critical. we have folks who are going to need a new balance based on the loan relief that was announced yesterday. the goal is to make sure we have
that information before any loan repayment starts. this will be the last extension. we will restart it in january. two years of not paying loans is helped borrowers as well. we also noted that getting folks back and paying their loans will help with inflation and offset some of the costs of this. we do anticipate now that folks under 120 $5,000 get the loan relief that they need we will have people restart the loan and have a lower level of defaults. david: with helping inflation will encourage inflation. sec. cardona: as a result of folks making more than 120 $5,000 restarting their loans it will help to lower inflation. david: i know you went to
college in connecticut, did you take out student loans and pay them all back was to mark sec. cardona: i was fortunate to get a lot of scholarships. at take out loans and paid them back. i'm a parent also and i recognize the cost of college and how high they are. i talked to people all the time who were struggling to buy a house, get married, move on in life because they are saddled down with debt. david: do you have some some of the crew people said i pay down my loans and it's not quite fair. sec. cardona: we had a pandemic and we are helping people who are most impacted by the pandemic. so as someone who does not have loans and i paid for my degrees, i was fortunate to be in a position where i could pay for them. if something happened where my neighbor needs help to get back on their feet, me feeling they shouldn't get help, that's un-american. we want to help people when they're down, get them back up and provide a sustainable path. that's what we're doing for the
american people now. while some people chose not to go to college or said they couldn't afford to go to college so they're not going. everybody knows somebody who struggling with debt. it might be a family member who gets help. it's the right thing to do after a pandemic just like it was the right thing to do to help small businesses. that's what this president is doing and are proud to be a part of it and a proud we can survive -- provide millions some relief so they can move on with their life. david: all of us in the united states know someone who struggling with student loans. thank you for explaining this to us. sec. cardona: my pleasure. take care. guy: thank you very much indeed. i wonder what congress makes of all of this. let's take a look at the european markets are. the volume numbers, basic resources are up.
guy: european equities, drifting sideways on very light volumes. energy is having a very good day. commodities on the front foot. a double edge sword for europe, prices going higher and higher. and we are going to be talking about that. at the moment, the dax is up. that kind of the picture. not just pre-much going forward here.
really hasn't been countered. we are up by around 3/10 of 1%. you could argue, the breakdown of the story. doing relatively well. tech exit having a very good day today. bottom into the market, retail is down. that's actually much more defensive group basket of stocks. something want to take away. anything can be really reduced there. that's -- let's talk about some of the individual assets. i'm not to do stocks today. today we get a big move lower. which was good. yields down, price up.
there's begin -- a bit of panic beginning to set in. we are a month away from the election. we seen significant positions. that's on than you want to watch out for. to deal with this fragmentation issue is going to be a massive challenge to work at through this winter. basically flat, a similar story as we work away into jackson hole. and then we get to nat gas. both are sharply higher. you've got german one year for electricity prices rallying sharply. we are 10 times where we were this time last year. what needs to be done is the key question. can europe keep it together?
kailey: let's try to get an answer as pressure is mounting on europe. to ease the pain of those record astounding energy prices which are surging to levels last seen at the beginning of russia's invasion of ukraine. we spoke to bridgewater co. cio greg jensen about how this affects his outlook for the continent. take a listen. greg: macroeconomic conditions for europe are a disaster but we see extremely difficult choices between inflation and growth. how the ecb deals with those trade-offs, we think the risks around the european macro situation are about his grave as they've been in the decade. kailey: joining us is the forum energy president is joining us from warsaw. we focused so much on the lack of supply available to europe, the only way to counter that is bring demand down. how do you do it?
>> we have to focus on demand reduction. countries were not prepared for this. we only spoke about subsidies and how to ease household and not necessarily about how to do this. there are several other measures which we can apply for example in creating demand reduction because we know -- we now focus entirely on households. many households will face a tremendous issue in the coming winter. however we must not forget households can deliver less for the entire supply energy security. so we have to focus on consumers
in the industry. guy: there's a lot of talk about price caps. wire price caps not a good idea? >> they are not a good idea. we really need the price signal for the markets and for the entire consumer so the need to see the prices increase, certainly not each consumer will make the problem so many consumers still have -- government, i think in many cases we've seen government is still responsible for the situation. but the situation which is now causing the entire constraint. in order not to make this again. we of course have to support
selective consumers but not every consumer. and we need to prepare for pricing in order to minimize demand for the next winter to come. it's not the one winter which will be difficult but the next two winters at least and we need to have investment and lower demand and certainly that's the most important thing we need to do. kailey: are we talking about households or businesses? >> in poland and in many countries in europe we focus now on households because the price increases are huge. many countries do not have proper energy property programs so they are spreading to all consumers. what's now happening in such countries in europe, industry
consumers are facing a problem. the bigger company has switched yesterday -- switch off yesterday production. they said the prices just -- price is just too high for them. they will not produce with this next year. this is exactly the one example. that's one of the biggest companies in europe. so we may land with another problem in agriculture. guy: if we don't get the price signal and consumers don't reduce consumption, is there going to be enough go round. are we going to need to see energy rationing in europe this
winter? >> we don't know where the bottom of the crisis is. it certainly not the end. we are before autumn. so we will certainly end up with energy rationing. it's not only the physical lack of fuel but also this challenge. once you have this, it's like you won't have it at all. which means energy rationing will be certain. we have rules on how to do it in households will be protected. but nevertheless we need to design and focus on the industry which is key to keep our economic security. this is something which is not designed yet. i think many countries are not prepared for this crisis and do
not know how to switch off industry and how to reduce demand. kailey: you were talking there about how transitioning away from fossil fuels is something europe has to do but something that takes time. the buildup of renewable forces of energy takes time. the sun doesn't always shine, the wind doesn't always blow. how long will it take europe to figure out the balance of what the energy mix looks like going forward. i imagine we are not talking near term. >> certainly renewables or the solution. it's not easy to scale it up quickly because of constraints. of course it's not only the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. certainly there will be no one who will set the price outside of europe which is the case now. so renewables are the solution.
together with energy efficiency. i don't see any other way how we can overcome this crisis. so we are more and more dependent on fewer supplies from other countries so once we will phase out russian fossil fuels we shouldn't really go to other countries and end up in two years with the same situation in which we are now. this is a complete new era for energy which we should be ready for. guy: thank indeed, appreciate the analysis. let's check with european markets. these are the final numbers. europe delivered on very light volume.
not sure the signal you can take. we await jay powell. we expect that speech on the cable this evening. kristine aquino and i will be taking crew on that show. you can find the podcast on spotify and itunes. kailey: we will continue this conversation on energy because it's so important as more than half of u.k. households risking the push into energy poverty. we will speak with the ceo of the uk's first and only specialist pay as you go next. this is bloomberg. ♪
keeping your up to date with news around the world. russian president vladimir putin has ordered the military to increase its armed forces by 137,000. the degree did not explain whether it would come with a draft. the kremlin has said only volunteer contract soldiers will take part in what it calls the special military operation in ukraine. global monkeypox cases have declined accordant to world health organization. new cases fell 21% in the weeks sunday. they continued spike in the american -- in the americas. china has stepped up its attempt to stimulate the economy. largely focused on infrastructure spending. that won't likely go far enough to encounter the damage from the
covid lockdowns. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. kailey: thank you. let's head back out west, the fed economic symposium in wyoming kicks off today but the main event is tomorrow. jay powell's speech. joining us from jackson hole is michael mckee way understand the weather is better and the view is still beautiful. what happened between now -- what happens between now and 10:00 a.m. tomorrow when the chairman speaks? michael: after we finished mopping up the rain. this blew down a bunch of trees and other stuff. there's a dinner tonight that kicks off for the host of the meeting, the president of the kansas city fed will give a short speech which is a welcome to jackson hole.
then tomorrow morning we get the main event which is the keynote speech, first thing on the agenda from jay powell. after that they get into various papers that are prevented presented, this is an academic conference. the fed chairman speaking here. most of this will be theoretical and they help these guys think about things and long-run but not about policymaking. guy: you would've thought with some sort of rainstorm going on that some sort of hat would be a good idea. i'm sure you've got it covered. how abnormal is it that this speech is allowed to be broadcast live to the world? this is normally a quiet academic event. it feels like razzmatazz this year. someone said this feels like the economic super bowl.
>> for years and years, there was no tv here. it's presence has just grown and grown. so money fed officials, two years ago when we couldn't come here in person and last year we couldn't come in because of covid they live-streamed it. and that give television a chance to broadcast the jay powell speeches. this year i spoke with ester george and her staff and they said the genie was out of the bottle. people already expected it, it's being thought of his big news so we will allow it. i expect this means there will allow them from here on out. most years the not particularly newsworthy but this year a lot of people will be tuning in. guy: absolutely.
uk's first and only specialist pays you go smart energy supplier. thank you for your time. what impact will tomorrow's price cap hike have on your customers and your business when it's announced. >> on our customers it will be obsolete devastating. were talking about customers who were struggling paying the bills last winter. in april of this year the price cap put prices up 54%. summer demand is much lower than winter. so even at that level, customers were really going to struggle with the idea of them going up. once demand starts to pick up, -- kailey: what's the appropriate government response? >> our preferred response would
be that they raise the price cap of the current level -- freeze the price cap at the current level. one of the biggest problems we have is people are really trying to worry about this winter. small businesses are already starting to see bills rise to a level that will potentially put them out. and the fear of all that it's not being managed at all at the moment. we think it will of been far better for the government to announce a price freeze at the current level. there will still be some customers at that level but we can deal with that problem as it's a relatively small number of customers. you can start putting bills up on average. we have an awful lot of people in the u.k. who really struggle at that level.
we'll the government follows up with some kind of funding package. in january we expect a price to go up again. guy: isn't there an issue if we take away the price signal which is the signal that it's going to lead to some demand destruction which is what we need to a certain extent. we need more efficiency, to figure out a way of reducing demand because we are chasing a finite resource getting smaller and smaller. we end up with consumers using the same amount of energy and that's can generate a bigger problem further down the road. how do we get the balance right of the price signal and protecting consumers? bill: it is a question of getting the right balance, of the economics would suggest we need to let prices go up and give consumers an incentive to cut their energy output. the reality is consumers won't
be able to respond that quickly. the only way is by going without heat or power. a huge number of customers just can't afford to do that. customers who don't own their own homes and don't have that ability to invest in energy efficiency. it is a real problem. i do agree with you, it's a question of getting the right balance. even at the current level consumers will have a massive incentive where they can afford it to reduce their own consumption. we won't see the level of hardship and the sheer level of worry that is going to happen if we go ahead with this expected price rise. kailey: what kind of winter are you bracing for? what kind of blackouts do you potentially foresee? bill: most companies like ours we've already contracted for the expected level of consumption during the winter which will
allow for colder periods. having said that, if we have a prolonged cold spell much colder than average winter, then we will see some real physical supply shortages would be my gas. it is the weather to pet -- it is dependent on the weather. but at the same time we have to accept that there some risk. kailey: on that we will leave it. phil, thank you for your time. that wraps it up for guy johnson and myself here on bloomberg markets: european close. coming up, dr. anthony faucher will be joining balance of david westin television and radio. guy: i'll be heading to radio as well. dab digital radio, kristine aquino and myself working our
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>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of david westin -- of power with david westin. david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our television and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to balance of power. the jackson hole economic symposium is finally here and as a prelude to the main event with chair jay powell tomorrow, michael mckee spoke earlier with fed kansas president -- kansas city president esther george.