tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg August 25, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
hong kong, 11 a.m. in tokyo this is "bloomberg markets: china open," >> top story this morning, jay powell's hotly anticipated speech later on today we are live in jackson hole, stocks rise and the dollar shrugging off the warnings, the central bank timing is not over yet, chinese tech getting a boost with the signs of talks of u.s. regulators avoiding massive delisting is making progress. >> also on our storing, -- story the concern we had about what jay powell might say 12 hours from now thereabouts, this is a sense of being sanguine as well. we have yields pushing up to the margin the dollar all stronger benefiting here. this countdown as it work.
>> it is helpful to look at this ways move, in the context of what happened in july and a reversal of that, treasuries or example, for straight weeks of gains they are on the 10 year yields. on the bottom rate locking into positions, the market ties his positions -- it's position at the hawkish consistency out of the fed. the stocks down, the dollars down, the tech story in china started yesterday and the conversations around delisting. you take that away, the improving economy, with the earnings coming out -- >> the decoupling scenario, maybe taking a step back from that according to our sources are saying in our reports. when it comes to jackson hole have to wonder. one word is unfazed, the
speakers we have heard the last 12 hours or so, esther george talking about what she sees if rates will be above 4%, saying around that three quarters to 4%, he said he liked frontloading. they are on the fence in terms of 50 and 75. he said, basically do not blink jay powell because they were asleep at the wheel. >> the next meeting will be september 21, will it be three quarters of 1% as what we had last time in the time before or will be in amelioration? he is clearly in the 75 basis point cap. esther george had a call for how high interest rates may have to top out at. >> we have more room to go. we would bring those rates down quickly. i have seen that in the forecasting, seems a bit more --
remarkable to me. we will have to hold. >> 4%? >> it could be well over 4% to do not think it is out of the question. we will not know that until you watch the data signs. >> about 125 to 150 basis points. this blue square you see on your screen this is where we are, that is the longer-term projections. is the terminal rate higher than that? that is because -- that is the key question here. >> i do not even think the fed knows where the terminal rate lies at the moment. let's get back to a kathleen hays economic some policy editor she is in jackson hole for us. as we count down to jay powell's speech, the markets are not listening to this heads speech -- fed's.
speech how hawkish is jay powell have to be to convince the markets they are fighting inflation. >> it seems to me that yes make it very clear we says job number one is bring down inflation. it means doing whatever it takes. i thought is very significant when esther george said inflation would have to get above foreign have percent -- 4.5%. they might have to go 5% or higher. she said we could go even higher. to me this is a very important thing coming from esther george, some are hesitant about 75 basis point rate hikes. do not know if they need 50 or 75, but definitely keep going. job number one is truly fighting inflation. it is not, and by the way we think we will get a soft landing. we are in a good position for because labor market is so
strong. that job mark -- that is job number two, job number one is getting down inflation. the economy needs this, consumer and businesses need this, low income people needed more than wealthy people because inflation hurts them the most. >> kathleen, i am just wondering, i am looking at everything that has been said. is there any signal at all to believe the opposite or is it blatantly clear right now for markets, economists, and because folks that the fed will budge? >> i think one thing we can harken back to, the last couple sets of thoughts, it was june where there look out to the future where's when you would see inflation before percent -- inflation to 4%. a lot of economists and
investors said the be -- the beginning does it add up? is that a magical forecast? if you are going up to 4% is it really enough to bring down inflation that is well above 8%? if you are not going to get really tough, how high will you make inflation go? that is the kind of thing, david, somehow has to be clear. over time i have been or sympathetic with the markets sank, what is going on here -- saying what is going on here? to a certain extent there has been a mixed message at time. maybe they are hoping more than they are expecting, some of the signals will have to go through, but they will. from all these fed speakers here, we jay powell with any luck from the fed they will make it clear that is what they truly mean it never will say we get. >> kathleen, thank you, kathleen
hays our economics and policy editor. stay tuned for our special coverage of jackson hole, we will have fed chairs jay powell speech live. >> 11 hours, 54 minutes to go. let's go to mark cranfield now, this week started off with a lot of worries about what jay powell was going to say. they are for more of a hawkish pivot. those fears have receded. give us a sense of what has been looked at in particular? >> at think it is partly the same. -- partly what kathleen was saying, the messaging is not been that clear. there will not be surprises, especially about jerome powell speaking as well. we are seeing traders backtrack on the idea that he will talk about a potential pivot to lower rates next year.
he will crush that idea in the bond market will be watching closely. something that could be surprises you will reinforce the idea that 4% is the target for the fed to begin with. then they would be prepared to increase rates again next year if they see inflation remaining stubbornly higher. we get a situation they continue with the frontloading this year somewhere around 4%. they pause for a while at the level. by the middle of next year they have to go again and increase rates because inflation is still way above the 2% level they have been talking about for some time. there is plenty here, particularly for the bond market . we could get plenty of big reaction come next week. we have seen yields in the 10 year gradually creep up since he met -- since the last meeting in july. there are a couple weeks ago until the september meeting, there is room for the 10-year yield to process -- price in
september with a possibility of more to come before years and. -- end. >> the other side of the dollar store has been the pboc, indirectly or directly told markets that the currency is getting to weak. >> they have given traders and ice whack over the head three times in a row. -- a nice whack over the head three times in a row. they want the price to come down, particularly offshore is not gone down very far. the reason is if you look at the fundamental picture, both the pboc, think it is a little aggressive. nothing too much is change on the fundamental level. the yuan is quite cheap to short get the u.s. dollar. you look at the dynamics aftermarket people are betting
on the yuan to get weaker quite substantially. there is more talk of a chinese stimulus, people are not convinced is the right kind of stimulus. this will have the covid zero policy and plenty of headwinds in property we have discussed for quite some time you can probably understand why people are saying yes, then install the market is been getting carried away. >> stocks and bonds in the tech space as well, a pretty big rally when it comes to asia tech, is it a short squeeze? can we expect it go much farther now that it seems like the listing concerns are fading now? >> yes, even if it is a short squeeze, they can be pretty violent. we have two recent moves this year, one in march and one in may. the first one took 22% on the upside and 17 percent on the
upside. if you got anything like it to short squeezes this year that brings the hang seng index to 22,000, does a decent move to where we are now. if people have follow-through on this move, if the market is sufficiently short we could certainly see, anything like a 10% move is not out of the question as well. these moves can go quite away, even in the context of a market, that is still under a lot of pressure. short squeezes can go far. if you look at stocks that are driving they are very big names. they're likely to have large positions and still more work to do to address it. >> thank you very much, let's take a look at what is happening with the first word news. more data for those attendees at jackson hole to pour over, to key measures of the u.s. economy in different measures --
different points so far. gross domestic income, that rose by 1.5%, gdi is generated from producing goods and services. suggesting the consumer is still spending resume -- resiliently during a slowdown. president biden signed an executive order to fast-track implementation of the $52 billion law to boost semiconductor production. establishing a steering committee, it will help agencies coordinate their efforts so out company can apply for funds under the act. staying with the progress, with delisting companies from the u.s. stock exchange there discussing a plan that could see the companies audited by american expect yours -- inspectors in hong kong to be take 2024 deadline.
they would be all but delisted from the nyse and nasdaq, looking at hong kong and the export picture, plunging in july for the third consecutive month. this is all due to disruptions along the border with china, cooling demand in the global economy, global exports down a 9%, imports almost 10%, that is the worst result since 2020 and as they look at the first word headlines. >> a check of the markets, repositioning, ahead of what will likely be a hawkish fed here. we are joined in 20 minutes to talk about the position ahead of that in a conversation along -- r -- later on. >> chairman jeffrey discusses what he is confident the company is on the right track. this is bloomberg. ♪
you have korea's financial regulator and we have talked about the pboc pushing back. >> 680 is not the new 640? we did see that huge move in dollar china, the pace of this depreciation is slowing down a bit now. let's heard -- head back to earnings now, the esr group showing had grown 32% on year, credited to its acquisition of ara management acquiring it for $5.2 billion earlier this year making ers the third-largest listed real estate manager. >> jeffrey joins us now. thank you for joining us. that was completed in january, you announced the deal a year ago. it is quite difficult to see -- how much is adding to your
profitability at this company and what is telling you about the wheat market? >> is great to be here -- it is great to be here. the addition of ara was highly accredited to esr shareholders on 32% growth. you see the combined business, global gap -- capital partners when a one-stop solution as they deployed more capital across asia. having 12 of the top 20 partners on the platform help us grow 14% year over year to 150 billion u.s. dollars. it is underlying growth, one thing we have said routinely with the ara transaction is it accelerates our asset trajectory. we invested $1.4 billion, a
record for the first half of the year, we are in a nice position right now, in a more uncertain world. as a heard you -- as i heard you guys talking earlier this morning. david: i noticed 10 billion of that was a four x move. 8 billion in terms of -- what are you trying to do that? >> we are talking about higher rates, with that there is some sustained inflation. inflation can be very good for real estate. we are seeing it in our own underlying logistics for folio, the vacancy rates across all of our major markets, extra china 99% occupancy. we have raised our development start substantially. 3.5 billion of new projects in
the first half of the year, up over 100% year-over-year. we completed over $2 billion of projects, up 50% year-over-year. we want to deploy that capital on the back of probably the rest logistics back drop we have seen in asia. >> having said that come your-weighted average interest cost was only 3.8% in june. how is the company managing a potentially further rise in interest rates and how is that impacting your performance next year? >> great question, when the benefits of the ara transaction is our balance sheet is in the strongest position has been. it is 720%, record liquidity, -- sub 20%, record liquidity, we retired our pre-ipo financing.
we have brought it down to a blended average of three point percent. -- 3.8%. we think going forward based rates might rise a little bit, but it going forward it puts us in a good position going forward. >> share price is down what is that really down to in your view? is not a great year for hong kong listed shares, what are you not communicate directly to the investment community in your view? >> it is a fair question, what i would say and .2 is if you look at asset management -- and point to if you look across asset
managers they are down 35% plus. given our growth profile, the secular trends underpinning the business in asia, certainly we feel our stock is undervalued as we sit today. >> jeff, final question, t bonds earlier questioned kelly of managed to keep your -- two ivanka's earlier question you managed to keep it certain levels. how do you change the capital mix and keep that cost of capital down moving forward? >> i think is about -- this is such a good underlying business model. the one thing they could interrupt that growth is to be overleveraged. we are always made a cognizant decision to maintain lower -- because of the asset like nature we have gone from co-investing 20% of our evolvement funds to below 10%. we are using less capital that we did before. you have the fee income associated with that. a prudent management of the
balance sheet, in more uncertain times it really comes back to having that liquidity #investment -- pounce on investment are cities. >> your occupancy rate, 96% in the first half, do you see signs of that slowing down? >> we reached a record 2 million square meters in the first half of the year. despite the challenges in china, 50% of that came from china. this is the one time we can remember, that we do not have space to lease in markets like australia, south korea, japan, southeast asia. those markets are over 90% oculus i. -- occupied. >> a lot more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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climate targets. >> to the markets in hong kong, especially the adrs between the u.s. and china and delisting. >> we are tracking some very big -- as easy almost a broad-based valley. beer. >> it is friday, it is a beat when it comes to earning also when it comes to petrochina, that is where we saw a lot of the surprises there climbing to a record high for petrochina and comes to net income. petrochina up close to pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too!
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rishaad: you are watching bloomberg markets. one wanted to go before japan goes on lunch break. the one thing in our minds, talking to an investor earlier in the second-most important thing out there for market players. the first one is a visual interest rate, the second one is interest rates, and the third is interest rates. yvonne: and the fourth is inflation. rishaad: a smorgasbord of chat about inflation today. [laughter] yvonne: a year ago, jay powell made that speech on jackson hole about her inflation was transitory. he certainly got that wrong. the market will put more weight into his words this time around. david: absolutely. it might even mean that he leans further into this. yvonne: beyond just the rhetoric , whatever that means. rishaad: that was a virtual kerfuffle. [laughter] david: back to reality. first time in three years that they are gathering in-person at
jackson hole. kathleen hays -- [laughter] -- our global economics and policy editor. kathleen, let's bring you in. set the scene for us. how big is this one? kathleen: probably one of the biggest in a long time. frequently in the past, fed chair's have taken the opportunity to make a big announcement, mario draghi in 2012, do whatever it takes. that was the big zucca in jackson hole. before that when bernanke signaled quantitative easing was started, that is what he signaled. jay powell, i wonder if whatever he signals will be more of a specific, pointed statement that they are going to fight inflation, going to get it down and they are willing to risk recession. they are probably happy to start
with strong employment, but that is what they are ready to do. beyond that, it is hard to say, isn't it? it would be surprising if he did not send a signal like this. fed officials are saying go higher, go faster. maybe that is what he is getting ready to signal. who knows. yvonne: and you have been speaking central bankers and former central bankers as well. tell us what the polls is underground, especially when you talk to adrian orr. kathleen: adrian orr is definitely ready to get to the top and stop with interest rate hikes. yes, the door is still open. and another interesting thing, he is ready not to have a recession. retail sales this week were weak. broadly speaking, he did not signal openness. i think he thinks it will be ready to stop. next year. let's listen. >> we know we have to slow the economy, when you that it was 3%
less to even begin the slowing journey. so now, we are in a much more comfortable position. we think there will be another couple of rate hikes, but then, we hope to get in a position where we can be data-driven and get back to a normal position now. kathleen: what are you watching and worrying about the most? >> we are looking for significant signals of inflation expectations, and actual inflation declining. we have seen the beginning of that. so i do feel confident we are on top of it. we all have to be cautious. we don't need to be chasing inflation all the way down. so we are watching for signs where we can be confident that we are slowing the economy, and confident that that is credible and feeding inflation expectations.
kathleen:. kathleen: the consumer is the big driver of an economy. resolve retail sales for new zealand, the yearly rate was negative for the second quarter in a row. and we just saw the first quarter of gdp was a little bit negative. some people say that retail spending is pretty important. are we going to see a second negative quarter? the technical recession, do you think that is possible? >> our core view is that no, we will not see a technical recession. there is quite a reasonable bounceback and economic activity in q2 of this year. we need very low consumption. our outlook is for almost flat real consumption. and so, for us to see retail sales, off like that is not a surprise, it is a good signal that monetary policy is biting and we are doing our work. but there are many other things driving the gdp figure. tourism is coming back. the country has reopened.
the investment, particularly in construction activity, is still very strong. so consumers will be taking a significant brunt of the slowdown because we are an open trading economy and our monetary policy mostly bites on domestic spending. kathleen: a big question for central bankers facing these surgeries in inflation is, are you willing to push that hard? you had this surprise on retail sales. what if things slow down? is recession a necessary evil? >> certainly slower growth is a necessary position. it doesn't have to be negative growth, it just means economic activity grows slower than the potential -- in the economy. potential growth at a positive rate. we can have declining capacity. declining capacity pressures. the single biggest capacity is
declining labor. we have to contract. kathleen: are you willing? that seems to be a question for central bankers, if you have to push that hard, are you willing to do it? >> pushing that hard will take most countries around the world very close to zero economic growth or certainly below potential economic growth, in other words, not doing their job. it is likely that some countries will be at two quarters of negative growth. specifically for new zealand. at this point, we don't need that -- we don't see that. kathleen: so a pretty realistic view, pretty honest view to the extent that he is saying, yes, consumers will have to take the brunt and we will have to slow demand. i think that is what most central banks are saying and the fact that he is saying this view that they have done just about
enough and they will be able to slow by the end of next year, that is important to markets and to the people of new zealand. we will just have to see if the data bears that out next year. david: kathleen hays, our global economics and policy editor there. we will have more from kathleen throughout the next few hours as jackson hole is concerned. joining us on set is, the head of markets for asia-pacific corporate investment bank she also oversees markets at wells fargo. what is the advice before and shortly after jackson hole? guest: talking about jackson hole, it is a key event to watch, but i doubt that we will hear any significant announcement. i think the fed will continue to drive monetary policy, very much data-driven. you get the august cpi in september and also the august jobs report in early september before the fomc. these are the key data to watch. if we don't really hear any
drastic significant news from jackson hole, i think the market will continue a bit on a temporary relief rally. it is good for the market, but having said that, i would really watch the data in september. rishaad: they do say they are data dependent. they said there would be lots of labor flexibility and also that inflation would transitory. at that level. he got the directions wrong, though. so i guess there will be nothing firm, but it is the tone, is it not? it seems as though there is an aggressive fed in play. neel kashkari, a dash -- a dove turned a chief hawk, we could say. perhaps a move to hawkishness is the overall feel?
mandy: i think that that tone, everyone will be watching it. if you look at the past rhetoric from powell, he is slightly dovish. he may have a bit of dovish tone versus the other fed governors on the hawkish side. actually, i think the language will be very balanced coming-out of the next couple of weeks, into the fomc. i would not read too much into it. i think the data will speak for itself, and the key driver of decisions for the september fomc. yvonne: do you see any signs that the yield curve could steepen in the next weeks or so? mandy: i think so. there has been massive short positioning in the front and towards jackson hole this week and i think that could reverse. i don't think there is significant guidance coming out of jackson hole, so that could reverse. i guess since we are data dependent, any rarely in treasuries, is it down to just a short squeeze? mandy: definitely.
not sustainable. yvonne: what about the dollar moves we have seen? mandy: looking at the dollar move is pretty interesting because if you see the u.s. yield converge into global yield , the dollar still strengthened. what is happening is, at the commodity prices and the terms of trade are the key driver for dollar strength. the u.s. is starting to export crude oil and gas, while europe continues to be a net importer. i think there will be a near-term factor to drive continued dollar strength. the other factor is i think the u.s. has more room to hike interest rates compared to europe, just because of inflation risks. that will continue to drive a stronger dollar towards the end of the year. having said that, we see that dollar strength peeking at the end of this year. here we are projecting a likelihood that the u.s. will go into recession in the second half of the year. now, that could reverse some of
the rate hikes this year and the dollar would probably go into a cyclical weakness next year and onward. david: who might benefit from the weakness in the dollar? not the euro, they are also in trouble, aren't they? mandy: some of the em currencies. the euro is a tough call, we see it continue to be weakened toward the end of the year significantly against the dollar. david: how low can the euro get against the dollar? mandy: $.96 on the dollar at the end of the year. still a bit of room to go. i would hold off buying euro for now. yvonne: in terms of other currencies, you mentioned commodities and how this will be driving it. do i have to split this between importers and exporters now, basically? mandy: yeah, and mostly commodities import and export. yvonne: thank you so much for
joining us, mandy wan from wells fargo, joining us on what to expect from jackson hole. rishaad: we have russian president vladimir putin ordering his military to increase troop numbers by 137,000. he did not explain in the decree whether that would happen via draft or finding more volunteer soldiers. pakistan's former prime minister imran khan has been granted preemptive bail that bars him from a rest until september. he is facing a complaint over comments made against a judge, during a speech last weekend. he has been drawing huge clouds to his rallies since being ousted from power in a no-confidence vote back in april. a judge in florida ordered the justice department to release isredacted version of the affidavit laying out the government's case to search
trump's mar-a-lago home. the judge accepted the doj's request to keep secret the identities of witnesses, law enforcement agents, grand jury information, as well as other sensitive data. the doj has until friday to file that document. novak djokovic who is unvaccinated, said he will not compete in the u.s. open. the decision means the former world number one could risk tumbling further down the rankings. the u.s. open upheld its vaccine policy, despite claims that the rules were inconsistent. there is no vaccine mandate for fans who want to attend the tournament. that is a look at the first word news. yvonne: coming up, there is a potential audit deal between beijing and washington for listings in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪
against the backdrop of the biggest gain in the nasdaq golden dragon index. first in two months. david: although we are coming off highs. stephen engle is here to talk us through it. what is the story? stephen: they are losing steam in the local market. they had the big rally yesterday. we will have to see. alibaba as a proxy example, it has had fits and starts. we will see if this comes to fruition, this report, sources telling bloomberg news that chinese regulators have agreed to send the audit papers of many of its adr-listed companies here to hong kong, where then they would be open to scrutiny by the public account -- public companies accounting oversight board. rishaad: it is a mouthful. [laughter] stephen: it is. it doesn't roll off the mouth.
they will get the documents to comply with the sec requirements that all companies listed in the united states on the nyse or the nasdaq need to have their audits reviewed. so far today, chinese companies have not done so. for many years. i guess the sec took a blind eye to that, but there is now essentially congress -imposed rules that the more than 200 adrs could potentially be delisted if they do not comply. this would be good news for investors in the united states in those companies, if the companies want to stay in new york, but again, already a number of companies have indicated that they will the delist, big state owned companies like petrochina. yvonne: do you think it is big enough to satisfy them?
stephen: if they open their books, that is essential compliance. let's see how far they go. it is being viewed perhaps that the chinese side is making a big concession. they had refused to do so on a security concerns. we will have to see how this one plays out. but again, maybe it is a compromise for hong kong to open up the books either domestically in china or in the united states, maybe it would be bad optics for either side -- am i saying hong kong is a neutral side? [laughter] perhaps it is seen that way. we will have to see how this plays out. . let me bring up a quote from one analyst, from oanda, senior market analyst. he says, "this is a fascinating development. expectations were growing that this would get done, as both countries are dealing with economic fragility." so, to answer your question that you asked a little while ago, is
this halting, decoupling? i don't think so. there is still a trend to potentially delist and come home. david: and also logistical. we have to get the auditors here to quarantine for four days. [laughter] is there an exemption? depends when they come. stephen engle. thank you. we might just make our way into the 100-day moving average. if we get above that for the first time in six weeks -- we will see. there is plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
shares in the u.s. dropped some 12%. this offshore oil driller in china posted higher than estimated revenues. it announced an interim dividend of 78 hong kong cents per share. and petrochina posted its best first half ever earnings. it also says government stimulus is starting to lift chinese oil demand. rishaad: onto jackson hole and the focus on jay powell's speech, the focus has somewhat diverted as jackson hole recovers from a soaking storm. michael mckee has on that and some of the meeting history. michael: the fed chair's speech is the main event friday. thursday, the talk in the conference was liquidity, but not the wall street kind. a massive storm hit grand teton national park, flooding the
roads, and blowing down the tv tents, creating its own inverted yield curve. jay powell's speech may not have an impact on the markets quite as dramatic, as investors have already priced in a hawkish message. even if he says nothing new, they will probably take it that way. meanwhile, we have had requests for a sequel to our history lesson on how the federal reserve ended up here, how did grand teton become a national park? a higher power took care of the mountains. scientists think about 2.2 billion years ago. fast-forward to 1929, a small portion of this area became in national park. then came john d rockefeller. he was so enchanted with the area, he basically bought almost all the land between here and the town of jackson. then in 1943, he donated 43,000 acres to add to the national park. now, this is where the deer and antelope play. grand teeth and and yellowstone
to the north are also home to bison and two. once a year in late august, you can spot a central bankers in grand teeter on. michael mckee, bloomberg, jackson hole, wyoming. yvonne: i love that. where are your stetsons? i want one, too. [laughter] and the cowboy boots. rishaad: michael mckee has mine. [laughter] david: i don't have one. rishaad: it is interesting, this is the first one in-person since the pandemic and everybody is there. one person who is not -- christine lagarde. seems like all of these central bankers out of europe, we have south korea, we had the governor there. yvonne: christine lagarde has got a lot of problems at home. i am guessing she is dealing with the energy crisis and the
like. most people would say the ecb has a much tougher job than the fed right now. david: in fact, i think it is 50 basis points they are expecting for the ecb. rishaad: and look at the currency as well. i mean, that is -- yvonne: you must have loved your european trip. rishaad: i can't complain. [laughter] david: lighten up. i am kidding. yvonne: interesting that fed speak, though, it is guidance about what power could say. will he go beyond that rhetoric that we have been hearing of late? rishaad: oh, two be a fly on the wall listening to their private conversations. yvonne: are today playing at the national park? plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪