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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  September 19, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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dani: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london and these are the stories that show your agenda. global dignitaries in london for
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a final farewell to queen elizabeth. powell plus. the fed with a flood of central bank decisions this week. the boe, bank of indonesia and peggy -- boj also decide. and president biden says the u.s. would defend taiwan if attacked, risking more discord with beijing. let's start in the u.k., global leaders have gathered for the state funeral of queen elizabeth today. that service expected to bring the u.k. capital to a standstill. we have the british public and much of the world paying final respects to an extraordinary life and reign. we are joined by anna edwards and lizzy burden, outside of westminster hall where the queen is lying in state, will end in about 30 minutes. anna, a very busy day ahead.
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after the lying in state ends, what happens the rest of the day? anna: good morning. we see perhaps a continuation of the pomp and ceremony from the past 10 days. 10 days of official mourning comes to an end with the state funeral, marking 70 years of reign and 96 years of life. the state funeral will take place in central london, westminster abbey, and then the grounds of windsor castle, another service taking place later on in the afternoon. a full day to reflect on the life of the queen. shops and markets will be closed. there will be a sense that this is not life as normal. it is a public holiday here. we've seen hundreds of thousands of people queing to pay respects. as you mentioned, that procession of people finally passed the coffin, and that comes to an end in half an hour's time.
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we've seen plenty of pomp and ceremony, plenty of ordinary citizens reflecting on what the monarch meant to them. we've seen that the past 10 days. today, we get a procession from westminster hall to westminster abbey where this their money takes place, and about five hours. we will see that procession, the queens coffin will be carried on a 125-year-old carriage pulled by the navy, set by tradition. throughout the day we will see traditions that go back a long way but also reflections on the queens life herself, hints that mean a lot to her herself. dani: the state funeral of a monarch not seen since 1952. we've been talking about the idea that the u.k. has come to a standstill. we are looking at pictures of those paying respects to the queen there before the procession of the coffin.
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we are expecting 500 more dignitaries? this will perhaps be the largest estate gathering for the u.k. in some time. anna: absolutely. we've heard from president biden, he paid respects to the queen last night, he went to witness her lying in state and was talking about what she meant to him, comparing her to his mother, saying she reminded him of his mother. we've heard that from many people, that she was the nation's grandmother. we know the president biden is here, and many of these global leaders are in london for the event, and they attended a special gathering with king charles yesterday. some of these informal meetings have been taking place even though the focus is on the burial of queen elizabeth ii. also in attendance, the emperor of japan and many european presidents as well, and members of other european royal
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dynasties, if you like. dani: lizzy, what anna is describing is perhaps a logistical challenge for the city of london. what have the preparations meant for it? lizzy: yes. one million people are expected to descend on the capital today. it poses a big challenge in terms of transport, a big transport challenge for london. the issue would be if everybody leaves london at exactly the same time after the funeral. there's also the security issue, because as you say, you've got 2000 people invited to the ceremony at westminster abbey, including foreign dignitaries, world leaders. the metropolitan police are taking care of that, backed up by police forces from around the country as well as mi5 and sas, but it is a bigger operation than the 2012 olympic games and
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the platinum jubilee earlier this year. a big logistical challenge. dani: what does it look like in terms of the public who still want to see the queen lying in state and perhaps want to watch the procession as well? what part will the public have in ceremony from here on out? lizzy: you mentioned the queue, famous in its own right, it has its own instagram account and twitter feed. you can see the very last of it behind me. i think you can nearly see the back of the line. 300,000 people are estimated to have waited up to 17 hours to file past the queens coffin and pay respects. it snaked all over rome -- all along the river thames. people have pulled children out of school, taken time off of work to pay respect. even david beckham waited many hours to stand in front of the
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queens coffin. really the atmosphere has been solemn. jovial, though, people sharing stories, their fond memories of the queen and what she has meant to them. that is going to end in about 25 minutes from now. lots of secular britons having their moment in the pomp and pageantry because this is almost a religion for them. dani: yeah. there is some degree to which mourning the queen feels like we are all mourning the loss of a monarch, a mother or grandmother, so you can understand why people relate to that. after this day of mourning, back to business for the u.k. there are problems from the energy crisis to a new prime minister and government. do we have any idea when that will resume and what awaits this government when it does?
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anna: you going to be hearing more about what the government plans to do, particularly business in the higher cost of energy. just at the time that the announcements were made of the queen's passing, we were hearing from the government about what they were planning to do to protect households but we did not get much detail. that will be a first order of business for the government after the funeral is over. later this week, we also expect to hear about plans for the national health service and how that continues to recover post-covid. also expect a mini budget this week, it is due to be released on friday. and the bank of england will meet this week as well. that was supposed to happen last week but was postponed during the period of mourning. very quickly back to business and the tough cost-of-living crisis and all of the challenges for the government. dani: lizzy, let's wrap this up
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with you quickly. as anna says, we will finally get the boe after that was put aside. how is the business of the boe different this week from last week? what does it mean for them to have been delayed and after this period of mourning? lizzy: now the bank of england can take full account of all of the economic data that came out last week. we saw inflation slightly drop but the labor market is still tight. growth was underwhelming. the inflationary impact weighing on retail sales so they can have all of that in mind as well as the emergency energy bailout being announced. i would also add the importance of the nhs announcement because you've got these long waiting lists and they could be partly contributing to why so many people are missing from the workforce, which is part of the
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reason why the labor market is so tight. it's not just a health announcement, it is also an economic one. a big week for the truss government to get on the front foot because they've been in suspended animation because of this shocking surprise of the queen's death. dani: it's been likened to a storm that liz truss will return to after the period of mourning is over. thank you both so much. you can of course watch special coverage on bloomberg tv, around 11:00 a.m. u.k. time, 6:00 a.m. in new york. as we continue throughout the day and throughout the week, it is a huge week for central banks. there is supposed to be 500 basis points of tightening in central banks. we are in rocky waters. mse asia pacific tents of 1%.
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japan is on a national holiday and markets are closed. markets closed in the u.k. as well for the national day of mourning. treasuries, cash treasury markets will not be trading until about mourning time in new york. elsewhere, a sloppy start for nasdaq and -- nasdaq futures. the s&p 500 fell for its worst week since june. european stocks slightly higher. the u.k. off so futures not trading for that. a look across markets and assets . europe down -- the euro down versus the dollar. the dollar longer against sterling. a lot of these currencies, especially versus the yuan, the pboc with a stronger fixing, the strongest versus expectations. still we are looking at a yuan above seven dollars and the
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weakness continuing through. officials warning about short-sellers in this market. also looking at stronger crude this morning, just under 92 dollars per barrel. chang shu has reopened after a lockdown. that will perhaps put some demand back in the market. if you want a sense of the nerve in this market, the dislike of risk assets, not wanting to take risk ahead of the central bank decisions, look no further than bitcoin, down more than 4.5%. under $19,000. it follows a theory him e --ther eum. now we are looking at the sentiment around dental currencies -- digital currencies under some stress. let's also look at some of the key things we will be watching out for this week. we have all of those central bank rate decisions. tomorrow one from sweden's risk
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bank, expected to raise rates by 75 basis points. on wednesday, fomc will deliver its rate decision after not much of a change versus expectations in a survey, we are expecting 75 basis points worth of hikes. monday, the central bike of brazil, they are expected to buck the trend and stay unchanged. and wednesday, the bank of japan. also norway estimated to hike by 50 basis points. we finally have the bank of england and they are expected to raise by 50 basis points. coming up, we get more into this. our central banks going to send the global economy into recession as they try to tighten policy? we discuss all of that next. plus, president biden says the u.s. would defend taiwan in the event of an unprecedented attack. we will have that later in the show. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think the federal government has to walk a very careful balance here between restoring appropriate labor rights, which has been a real flaw and a huge problem for the last 30 years, and doing things that will entrench inflation through wage pressure to the detriment of the overall economy, including the economy of workers who work with their hands. dani: former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers speaking about the state of the u.s. economy, and along with the fed, a big week for mobile monetary policy. central banks altogether our forecast to deliver up to 500
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basis points or more combined with the potential for an even bigger tally. the onslaught will start tomorrow with the risk bank, expected to accelerate tightening with a 75 basis point move. we have the fed back, consensus seeing them hiking by 75 basis points although some people think it might be 100. joining us is matt peterson. looking at your notes, it seems like you would not be a proponent of a 100 basis points hike given that it looks like they might be tightening too much. give me your thoughts. is 75 still too much, has the fed been too aggressive trying to play catch up? matt: i think so. we are going to get the 75 or 100, but if we look -- if you teach economics, it takes some time for monetary policy to work.
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this has been extreme tightening. look at the levels the two-year has moved up, and the mortgages, and people who work with their hands. people who work in a trade for a living. in sweden, it is already falling. the u.s. is the same i think. the risk is significant. dani: summers went on to say that he is not aware of an example of where the central bank hiked to fast and there was a large cost paid. is there any validity to that and others who say it is a soft blanket -- a soft landing in the fed can do this? mads: it was not pleasant to go through two hiking cycles in the 1980's. it was not a nice experience.
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what we see this time is a lot of people are positioning for the long run but the damage in the short-term can be dramatic and it is affecting the people the fed would like to help. extremely loose monetary policy, extremely loose fiscal policy and err on the side of optimism and positivity when they kept rates far too long. that's why we have this too high now. it is different this time around. the speed at which they are hiking now, just because i've never seen anybody drive off the road at a high-speed doesn't mean you can't drive off the road at a high-speed. dani: what a grim metaphor. amid the skepticism of where we are driving the economy, i believe last time we spoke, around july, only about 25%
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allocated to equities in your allocation, ability to go at 100%. and looking at 60% to 70% of equity allocation. what has changed? why dive more into the equity market? mads: it is pretty low compared to where we could be. there is a chance we get clarity. what we are seeing now is a cautious quarter with earnings coming ahead of us and then we see a very harsh situation. it could change on a dime. equities are down quite a lot. somewhere between a week into the next three months, things will get better. if that doesn't work out, short duration on bonds. dani: thank you so much for joining us. mads pederson, thank you for
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your time. coming up, president biden says the u.s. would defend taiwan in the event of an unprecedented attack. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london. president biden has underscored america's commitment to protecting taiwan as chinese incursions mount near its shores. >> we would agree with what we signed onto to a long time ago. there is a one china policy, and taiwan makes their own judgment about their independence. we are not encouraging their being independent, that is their decision. >> would u.s. forces defend the
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island? >> yes, if there was an unprecedented attack. dani: let's get to bruce einhorn. what is the significance of this comment coming from biden when it comes to taiwan? bruce: for a long time, for decades, the united states has pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity when it comes to what the u.s. response would be if there were a military conflict, a war between china and taiwan. the idea is the u.s. doesn't want to commit definitively one way or the other because that could perhaps create incentives for one side to take action. what we are seeing with president biden's statement, maybe there is less ambiguity. asked whether u.s. forces would defend taiwan, he very definitively said yes. i guess the question would be, what does it mean, defend? does that mean boots on the
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ground? soldiers and sailors and air force people in taiwan? we don't know. we still have ambiguity. dani: we also in this interview with biden, he talked about he had a call with xi jinping in february about russia as it relates to ukraine. what did they discuss? bruce: we knew that there was a call between the two leaders after the start of the war. in the interview just now on 60 minutes, president biden provided some detail on that, essentially saying he told president xi, don't let your companies violate the sanctions on russia because if that were to happen, the u.s. would impose secondary sanctions. in the interview, he went on to say that as far as the u.s. can tell, the chinese have not been providing military assistance or helping china negate sanctions
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in a significant way. there are still a lot of other problems in the u.s.-china relationship, most notably taiwan, but it seems that as far as providing significant support to russia in a war beyond rhetorical support, there hasn't been too much of it at least according to the president in the interview. dani: thank you, bruce einhorn. let's stay with china. ubs has cut its 20 22 gdp forecast from 3% to 2.7%, as a chinese mega-city exited a two week lockdown, 2 million people allowed to resume most aspects of life. rachel, what is the significance of the exit from the lockdown? rachel: what has happened here is very much what the chinese communist policy decides his
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success in the zero covid policy. lockdown, get the spread under control and lift it into weeks so the economic hit is not much. you've got this good news coming out of lockdown, but there was tragic news today of quarantine passengers involved in a crash and 27 people dying. for china's covid zero policy to work, there are so many of these really strict measures, thousands of people in quarantine, ferrying them to isolation. nobody else in the world does this anymore. there is a social and economic toll. people don't die all the time between he seven people is way more than anyone has died of covid in that province. dani: rachel, thank you. alongside that lockdown, there's also local media reports that hong kong might end hotel
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quarantine and pre-arrival pass. that means oil today is higher today i about half of 1%. coming up, we continue our coverage of the funeral of queen elizabeth ii. we still have folks in the queuq for about two more minutes as the queen is lying in state. foreign dignitaries join each other in london for the funeral. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (police radio call) (sirens) (news report) (sirens) (news report)
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dani: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london with the stories that set your agenda. global dignitaries joining
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mourners in london for a final farewell to queen elizabeth ii. the fed headlines of flood of central-bank decisions this week as global policymakers scramble to tame soaring prices. the boe, bank of indonesia and beatty -- boj. and president biden says the u.s. would defend taiwan if it was attacked, risking more discord with beijing. there are few moments through the history of the markets where the macro overtakes the micro in terms of how companies and corporate's, and general markets move. this week exemplifies that. 14 central bank decisions expected, 500 basis points worth of tightening is likely the minimum of what we might get an we could get more than that. it is an environment of global tightening save for a few standouts like the bank of japan and was ill -- brazil, likely to hold steady. it is another soggy session off
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the back of the worst week for u.s. equities since june. declining more than 5%. msci asia pacific index, without japan, down half a percent led lower by tech stocks. longer duration assets, you have all of these nerves surrounding and japan is closed today for a holiday. japan and u.k., both of those closings means cash market for treasuries want to place until the u.s. session. s&p 500 futures and nasdaq moving lower, the fear over big tech as you discount the featured cash flow -- future cash flow means nasdaq is down. a bounceback in european stocks, nifty futures up 1/10 of 1%. perhaps a relative value play. across assets, it continues to be another day of dollar strength. some significant short covering in the euro in the last futures update last week, but perhaps it is given folks more room to
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continue to move down, 2/10 of 1%. also the yuan above seven dollars despite that china is doing its strongest fixing in the pboc. we are looking at the last person to see the queen lying in state. we have seen thousands of mourners come through, the initial estimates for about 750,000 people waiting in line, a queue that was over 17 hours at some point. it ended this morning and this is the last person, the tail end of a queue, lining up for hours on end, braving the cold to see their queen lying in state. as this period wraps up, national morning and beyond of queen elizabeth. global leaders gather in london
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for the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii in westminster abbey later today. it marks the culmination of days of pomp and pageantry since the queen died september 8 at her scottish castle. this is the first state funeral for a monarch since 1952. let's get straight to anna edwards and lizzy burden, outside of westminster hall. anna, we are watching videos of the last person going to the queens lying in state, after multiple days, multiple hours of folks waiting on line. tell us the significance of who we were watching and that part of the ceremony. anna: yes, bringing to a close days of lying in state, days and nights of lying in state during which hundreds of thousands of britons and tourists have paid respects. we just saw the last lady to pass by the coffin. we also saw the lady usher
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following the last person to bring the process to a close. she generally maintains order in the house of lords. that brings to a close the public display of emotion and commitment to the royal family. today we see more pomp and ceremony, a real future the past 10 days of morning. we expect upper session at about quarter to 11:00 london time, a procession to leave from the 500-year-old you to flee lit westminster hall where the body has been lying in state for some days, we expect that she will be carried in a carriage to westminster abbey where a state funeral will take place with attendees from all over the world and lots of music and mourning her loss and celebration of her life. that will be followed by a committal in winstar -- in winds are -- windsor. a full day of activities. dani: sarah clark closing out
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this one portion of paying the respects to the queen. lizzy, we've had hundreds of thousands of people doing just that, paying final respects. what has the city's preparation been for this massive event? lizzy: they had been queuing behind me but it is finished now. really a market of just how much respect and affection there has been for queen elizabeth ii. what could be more british than a queue? that has ended now and it turns to the funeral and there has been so much preparation for it. elizabeth ii took a big part in planning for the funeral. you have a million people expected to descend on the capital today to catch a glimpse of history. we haven't seen a state funeral since churchill's in the 1960's,
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and a monarch since the queens father in the 1950's. you've got flights suspended out of heathrow for the time during the service in order to prevent that noise from the aircraft, also huge pressure on transport for london, especially as people leave london at the same time after the funeral. aside from the transport aspect, there is a security aspect because you have all of these foreign dignitaries, world leaders coming to attend the service. 2000 is the capacity of westminster abbey. this is the biggest security operation since the olympics, bigger than the platinum jubilee earlier this year. you have the metropolitan police backed up by police forces from around the u.k. as well as mi5 and sas keeping a lookout. it really is a huge logistical challenge. dani: anna, to that point, this
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is the largest hosting of foreign dignitaries in the u.k. in quite some decades. president biden paid his respects to the monarch as well. who are we expecting to join together in the country as they pay respects? anna: this is a state event. the government has had some hand in the guest list, and there has been some controversy about who has been invited. in general, countries that have diplomatic relations with the u.k. have been invited, excluding russia and three others could mostly -- three others. mostly this is an atmosphere to reach out. there have been controversy around invitations to china, for example. xi jinping is not attending but there could be a delegation in attendance. the saudis are no longer expected. there have been controversies
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around both of those, human rights groups angered at the invitations extended. we know the king hosted many of the attendees last night, and everyone is very much thinking about the queens life and the funeral of the queen, but there have been side conversations. we expected that the prime minister and president biden might have a more formal meeting but that has been postponed for a day or two, to the united nations meeting. this will be a u.k. government that has to get very quickly back to the day-to-day business of government after the funeral is done with. dani: certainly, it is an unprecedented time for a prime minister to take up the top mantle of the office. lizzy, wind is the day-to-day business of the government resume -- when does the day-to-day is this of the government resume? lizzy: it is a moment of crisis
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to be taking that up, liz truss had just taken up the prime minister ship when the queen died. this week and will follow up on a energy bailout for consumers, or is expected to, with an energy bailout for his misses. we are expecting the boe decision on thursday, and on friday, a mini budget, the main focus the tax cut pledges that liz truss made throughout her campaign. she said she would make them from day one. also we are expecting an announcement of a growth target of 2.5% gdp per year. really the questions following on from both of those is how much borrowing will this necessitate and how much inflation will it add? especially at a time when we know the pound is so weak. on friday it had its worst day since the 1980's, on the anniversary of black wednesday.
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dani: thank you. anna, don't go anywhere, you will stick with us. joining us is the director of the institute of commonwealth studies and visiting senior research fellow at cambridge college. thank you for joining us. in 2018, you have the commonwealth leaders gather and say yes indeed king charles, when he became king, would be the new leader of the commonwealth. how far does that agreement extend and how rocksolid is it? now that has been put into reality with the death of queen elizabeth ii? >> thank you for this invitation to speak. first of all, king charles is a ceremonial head of the commonwealth, the political head is of course the secretary general. the king certainly takes on this role for which he had a long apprenticeship and has represented his mother at
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innumerable commonwealth occasions. in june of this year he made a memorable speech but the commonwealth is facing a turbulent time in terms of visibility, communication and perceived relevance. the king, though, it is not hereditary, it was the heads of government that endorsed the queen's sincere wish, but i think there will be increasing questioning about what comes afterwards. i remain certain that the current prince of wales will take over a ceremonial head. anna: can i ask you, you said there was work to be done for the commonwealth in terms of its purpose. what about contemporary republican movements from places like barbados and jamaica? where are we going to see the most pressure immediately coming
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to re-think the role of the queen and these more far-flung parts of the commonwealth? dr. onslow: there are still 15 countries that keep the british monarch as head of state and this is a separate, the commonwealth realms are separate from the commonwealth as a national voluntary association of states. as far as the commonwealth realm is concerned, there are already signs of accelerating republicanism, and i think the dial has been turned up on this. the problem comes that there is a muddle in the public's mind or the shift to republicanism in, say, caribbean countries, rising republican debate in australia, although there will not be a referendum in the life of this parliament. the prime minister has confirmed that. but this is where the problem
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comes if there is to close of an association of the royal family with many in the commonwealth. for the day-to-day citizens, they find quite often it is difficult to separate these concepts. anna: is that confusion? as you point out, the commonwealth is much odder than the list of countries that have the now king as their head of state and to the questions over whether they continue to do that, is that something that threatens the foundations of the commonwealth? dr. onslow: i think these debates will feed into the commonwealth. some of the drivers of republican feeling are anger, it has to be said, of the monarchy's historic role in colonialism and what is seen as their inability to engage in the reparations debate. feeling that in other words the commonwealth is a modern
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organization that should not be represented at a ceremonial level by the latest representative of a 1000-year-old institution. i think commonwealth governments could articulate feelings in their countries and seek to really press the united kingdom and of course the monarchy on this. there is a history of this. but i think there will be some challenging conversations ahead. dani: i do wonder, amid these discussions and this reckoning with the past of the royal family and the u.k. and imperialism, what will become the importance of the commonwealth as a collection of countries on a global stage? dr. onslow: i'm sorry, do you mind repeating that question?
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i'm sorry, you are calling at the same time as bloomberg radio. dani: you are so in demand, we will tell radio to go on hold a little bit. if we have this reckoning for commonwealth countries which previously were united by the u.k. and monarch, could that dissipate, and if it turns into something different, what would be the importance of this collection of countries on a global stage? dr. onslow: the commonwealth is certainly facing some choppy waters. it is diminished in people's minds in terms of perceived relevance but it does represent more than a diplomatic network. it certainly has limited financial power, but it has soft power and it can have smart power. but it does depend on the leadership. there has been a leadership deficit. there have also been problems when the u.k. government has tried to lead more evidently. that has been seen in recent years, which irritated
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diplomatic sensitivities of former colonial countries. independence was for most commonwealth countries over 50 or 60 years ago. the commonwealth does have a visibility problem, but it also does have extraordinary convening power, whether it fulfills its potential, i think the jury is out. but it contributes to networking and the exchange of ideas. it is more than simply a get-together of heads of government every two years. but those networks are sustaining, but the commonwealth is facing challenging times. dani: we have to leave it there, more than anything so you can head onto bloomberg radio. enqueue for giving us your time to -- thank you for giving us your time.
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and thank you also to anna edwards, who will be on throughout programming today, we will have special coverage of the funeral on bloomberg tv do to begin at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time, six :00 p.m. hong kong or 6:00 a.m. in new york. coming up, will central banks send the global economy into recession? we will discuss the at least 500 basis points of tightening we are expecting just this week my next. -- this week, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get you cleared up for the week. a big week for central banks. a number of rate decisions. tomorrow, we will get decisions from sweden's risk bank,
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expected to raise rates by 75 basis points. wednesday, the fed with 75 points rate rise expected. the central bank of brazil is expected to leave rates unchanged, as is bank of japan. we have policy decisions by the swiss national bank. the bank of england also expected to raise rates. hang onto your seats, get some coffee, we have our rate correspondent joining us. garfield, i'm looking at a note that morgan stanley is saying basically we will see capitulation as risks rise for equities. do we really have a good grasp on what this coordinated global tightening means for markets and the economy? garfield: i think we do, this
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year is possibly unprecedented, certainly hasn't happened since the 1980's. this is very different from the 1980's, you had some level capital. we did not have china, we didn't have the immediate follow-through to marcus that we have now. by the same token, we have a global world. it takes a while for interest rates to work their way through these different economies. it is very hard to say exactly what is going to go on as this amazing pace of hikes occurs. one thing central bankers are trying to promise is they are not about to take their foot off the rate hike brake until they are very sure that inflation has been cooled.
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the subject of that is that they are willing to risk recession if that's what it takes to tame inflation. dani: to that point, the tone certainly will be set by the fed, by the meeting on wednesday, given that many of the central banks are responding to their policy. when it comes to this debate between 100 and 75 basis points, i'm taken by the argument that they don't want to go to 100 because the market might respect -- might expect recession and it might be that folks continue to be down on long-duration yields. is that warranted? one are your expectations for wednesday and the 75 versus 100 basis point decision debate? garfield: 75 seems overwhelmingly more likely. that's what markets had settled on. the fed has a tactical difficulty in that the inflation print came after they had gone into the quiet period, so they
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could not come out and say what they thought. we had to sit there and go there is a lot here to concern them. but does the overall way the fed is moving say they have to accelerate? it doesn't seem like that is the way. you also have the potential to fed would look at it and say, if we go a hundred, first of all you get the recessionary impact, and also everybody will start betting we will slow down. the idea that the fed has peaked in rate hikes has been a difficult one for them to cope with because the markets start pricing for better times ahead and they lose the financial conditions. 75 basis points makes more sense for the markets and a tactical point of view. that's probably what we will get. the big question is what goes on with the dot plots?
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how likely are they to keep going at 75? dani: garfield, that is such a good point, we will get those dot plots and maybe see some pushback from the fed on the idea they will cut rates next year. thank you so much, garfield reynolds. volkswagen is looking to raise as much as $9.4 billion from the ipo of porsche, it could be its first listing in more than a decade. for more, let's bring in our bureau chief. what do you make of this price range they've in giving us? is it too conservative? >> i think it is safe to say they seem to be playing it rather save. we've seen valuation numbers of about 85 billion, some even hoping to get somewhere near 100 billion euro valuation for
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porsche. the more narrow range between 70 and 75 ilion does seem to suggest they don't want to go into the market to aggressively from a pricing perspective. dani: how much of that is tied to what we've seen in terms of market turbulence? there's been plenty of ipos delayed or not gone ahead because of what happening in the equity market falling. christoph: it does were flecked to some degree the somewhat difficult market conditions. at the same time, it seems to be the logic behind this that because they price it in a conservative or safeway, it does give the stock a little more room to breathe. we've seen that with other luxury car deals, with a high valuation and aggressive pricing, and it did not help the stock going forward after it started trading. dani: ok, thank you very much. our frankfurt bureau chief gearing us up for what will be
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one of europe's largest ipos of the year, a year when macro forces from inflation to the energy crisis are really overtaking the micro-of these individual company moves. that will especially be true this week, we were just talking about the fact that we are likely to get 500 basis points worth of tightening or more from 14 central banks at least likely to be tightening. a very busy week with a lot of volatility. we will continue to guide you through it. bloomberg markets: europe is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." i am anna edwards in london. mark c j


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