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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  September 19, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EDT

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global dignitaries descend on london to join mourners for the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii. a flood of central-bank decisions this week as policymakers scramble. the boe, bank of indonesia, and boj also decide. upping the ante, president biden says the u.s. would defend taiwan from an unprecedented attack from china. francine: if you look at futures, activity muted by a holiday in japan and the queens funeral. tom: losses of around 4.8%, the biggest drawdown on u.s. equity since mid june. and if the threat of inflation,
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markets looking at potentially 500 basis points globally of rate increases this week. the fed wednesday, boe on thursday. let's check on these equity markets after a brutal week both for equities in the u.s. and europe. also noting the asian session, you have seen a significant drawdown as well. the cac 40 currently down .5%, in spain, losses. let's see how things play out as we look at the futures. it is about the central-bank action and the fed primarily. futures stateside pointing to losses of .4%. chinese stocks listed in hong kong, drawdown of about 20% since june. closing in on a bear market. sterling remains in focus, 1.1
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three, equity markets are closed but pressure on the pound continues. you will have a many budget out on friday, we are watching for further news from the government of liz truss. bitcoin under pressure, a drop of 6%. as crypto markets shape up to further central market -- central-bank action. francine: let's dig deeper into sectors. everything will be dominated by central banks, the bank of england and japan, sweden and other countries also. in terms of sectors losing the most, technology and energy down .6%. thinner volumes because of a bank holiday in the day -- in the u.k. i just have three industries on the way up. consumer goods, media and to resources are unchanged let's
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get to mliv managing editor mark cudmore, you are looking at average g10 policy rates as hikes are on the table. mark: it is the most momentous week for g10 tightening in at least the last 20 years. five of the g10 central banks will be hiking. conservative delete that will raise the average rate across all 10 by 30 basis points. first is the riksbank tomorrow, we expect 75 but it could be 100. on wednesday afternoon, we get the fed, 75 expected but it could be 100. after that, we go to thursday morning. first up, the snb, there is variability there. then norway, the only one with not much uncertainty, definitely
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50. then bank of england, likely only 50, with a slim risk of 75. that is 300 being delivered, may be up to 375. they might play off each other a little, which means the average central-bank rate goes up to 1.8%. we are basically at zero only this time last year, negative was the average rate so this is really an exceptional change and there is more to come, i'm afraid. tom: looking for the dot from those fomc officials later this week. global leaders have gathered in london for the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii in westminster abbey. that marks the culmination of days of pomp and pageantry since
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she died at her scottish castle. we are joined by anna edwards in central london. the town presumably somber, what are we expecting from the days events? anna: yes, the mood is somber. time for reflection of the last 10 days over the 70 years of the queen's reign. we are seeing images of early arrivals for the funeral. dust under three hours to go until the army funeral -- the formal funeral. this will take place at 11:00 a.m. london time. that is followed by another service in windsor, and then a private burial later on. then more of what we have seen, a lot of the pomp and ceremony, things that go hand in hand with monarchy in the u.k. but also an outpouring of grief, recommitment to the monarchy for many in britain. many hundreds of thousands q
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ueued for miles. we are drawn to that. we are also remembering this is something of a diplomatic event, and a massive logistical challenge for the authorities in london to manage. world leaders from the emperor of japan to president biden, and other european royal families. plenty of people needing protection today as crowds gather. we will be mindful of that and politics never far from these things. i have been controversies over who has been invited and who has not been. in a few hours time, we await the formal procession to get underway. francine: our anna edwards at westminster for us. the doors of westminster abby less than a mile from where anna is. they will begin taking their
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seats, we will see heads of state, and royal families. tom: and you can watch special coverage of the funeral on bloomberg tv, due to begin at 11:00 a.m. london time, that is 6:00 a.m. in new york. francine: central banks also take central stage. forecast to add up to more than 500 basis points combined. things kick off tomorrow with riksbank, which is expected to accelerate tightening with 75 basis points. the consensus is that fed hiking by the same amount. we are now joined by charles-henry monchau, chief investment officer at banque syz . thank you for joining us, this is a huge week for central banks around the world. we have the boj, that fed and the bank of england.
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do you think they will hike by a percentage point? charles-henry: that is a possibility. if we look at the hawks, there is a chance for a larger rate hike. markets need to adjust. we need to accept the fact that inflation is indeed accelerating. the fed is behind the curve. the fed needs to adjust and maybe they could choose to adjust quicker than the market was expecting. the base case is 75, but 100 is indeed still a possibility. tom: thank you for joining us, it's tom in the studio alongside francine, the rally has fizzled, where are we in the repricing of higher rates? charles-henry: this is where we
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have a difference between bears and bulls. sticky inflation is not priced into the market. the one year rate is still below 2%, that means the market expects inflation to undershooting the fed target. just as a reminder, i the 70's where there was speculation, -- for those who believe higher inflation for longer is not priced by the markets. and when you look at earnings expectations, the global expected range next year is 7%, which means the consensus has not adjusted for the fact that global growth is slowing down. francine: if you believe longer
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inflation is not priced in, how much overcorrection do we need? and is it u.k. equities more than u.s. ones? charles-henry: we need to see a trough in valuation, and also in terms of profit expectations. u.k. equities have been underperformers, they are cheaper than the u.s. this is where the stagflation scenario hits the most, and where fiscal and monetary policy is let's say, the most difficult to assess. for this reason, investors might stay away from u.k. assets for a while. until we get more clarity in terms of policy in the quarters to come. tom: jupiter asset management saying there is opportunity in long-term sovereign bonds, the soft landing will be happening,
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is that where you want to position? charles-henry: we want to position on the long end of the curve. long duration bonds have been used as a buffer. we don't believe that is the case because the terminal rate for the fed might be higher than 4.5% on the other hand, we like credit. if you look at investment grade 10 year yields, it is higher than the s&p for the first time. credit is one area of fixed income where there are interesting opportunities. tom: maybe look to credit in this environment as we look ahead to central banks later this week. charles-henry monchau, cio at banque syz, thank you for that analysis. we continue our coverage of the funeral of queen elizabeth ii, which is due to take place later this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open. we are 14 minutes into the european trading session. it will be muted because of the funeral of queen elizabeth ii. no trading in cash equities in
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europe, the weakness in markets reflecting questions about central banks. this week, the fed, the bank of england, boj and others. global leaders have gathered in london for the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii in westminster abbey later today. it is expected to bring things to a standstill as the public and were leaders pay tribute. let's also bring in lizzy burden outside westminster hall where the queen lies in state. yesterday, president biden paid his respects to the monarch. he will be among many looking at this unprecedented gathering of world leaders in the u.k. capital. anna: a huge gathering of world leaders. you mentioned president biden, he paid tribute to the queen talking about how she was just as you would expect to find her in reality.
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also saying that she reminded him of his own mother, which was seen as touching. it was thought he might have a meeting with prime minister liz truss, but that has been delayed until the united nations later this week. so the focus is very much on the business of the day. upbringing 10 days of mourning to an end, with the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii. the early arrivals are just starting to make their way. we still have a couple of hours until the start of funeral proceedings. attenders will have not just president biden but leaders from many countries around the world. not russia, myanmar, north korea nor belarus. but many european countries sending their presidents, the japanese sending their emperor. royal families from across europe in attendance as well, francine, so plenty of
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dignitaries from around the world. tom: we see the former chancellor exchequer walking into westminster abbey, along with others. it is 11:00 a.m. when the service begins. anna is following all of this with special programming later today. we are now joined by ellie woodacre, reader in renaissance history at the university of winchester. thank you for joining us, we as a nation, and many across the world have been reflecting on queen elizabeth ii's reign over the last 10 days. you have been for many years, what is your assessment of the key legacies from her reign? ellie: elizabeth ii really understood her role as constitutional monarch. she took her role really seriously. part of a desire for so many to
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pay their respects is an honor to that service that she committed her whole life to when she was 21. and she carried out her duties nearly until the last moments of her life. that deep understanding of the role of head of state, of constitutional monarch, getting that balance right between being accessible and to be seen, but also to separate the personal, if you like. the queen was keen to make sure she was seen but also didn't reveal too much of the person, her on thoughts and feelings. she had a wonderful touch in terms of soft power, and played an important role diplomatically in a very subtle way without having to stage manage, if you like. or be responsible for ruling the way her ancestors would have done. yet she still played an incredible role, and so many
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heads of state paying tribute have talked about her wise counsel, and the role she played in transitioning from empire to commonwealth. francine: how are you expecting the u.k. monarchy to change under king charles iii? ellie: i think we will see charles build on what his mother has started. even from her coronation being televised, that was an innovation at the time. we saw increasing engagement with the public. getting that balance right between preserving tradition as a hallmark of the monarchy, get staying in touch with modern society. the 70 years of elizabeth ii's reign saw massive changes. the monarchy had to keep in touch with that. charles is sensitive to that, and we have seen just in the first few days of his reign, that engagement has been front
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and center with him stepping out of the car with the queen consort camilla, and the engagement of william and harry, in terms of directly connecting with the public. we will see that trend that the queen started accelerate perhaps. along with perhaps another trend that began with the queen, the slimming down of the monarchy to the direct line of succession. tom: visit, let's bring you in at this point. lizzy outside the houses of parliament on the parliament green, we talked about the connection by the royal family to members of the public. significant within the history of policing and security here in the u.k. lizzy: we talk about the numbers at bloomberg, you have already seen hundreds of thousands queue behind me at westminster hall to
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see the queen's coffin lying in state. we are expecting 2 million if newspaper reports are to be believed, descending on the capital to catch a glance of the funeral. westminster abbey where the funeral will take place has a capacity of 2000. it will be filled with world leaders, for indignities and many more will tune in to watch the service on tv it's a massive logistical nightmare. i'm pretty sure we saw the boe governor andrew bailey walking over just moments ago, if my eyes don't fail me. transport for london says it is the biggest challenge london has ever faced. in terms of protecting all of those people, you have got metropolitan police backed up from officers around the u.k., as well as mi-5, the sas. it's a bigger operation than the 2012 olympics or the platinum jubilee. while the queue was british, the
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weather will not be so british, it is expected to be to day actually. -- a fine day actually. anna: thinking about the old and then you we have seen, a lending of the old and new that the queen has managed to do successfully, will we see evidence of that during the funeral? i'm thinking about traditional elements but also balanced against more modern references. lizzy: we can definitely see that the queen has been innovating in terms of how she is bringing together two different strains of tradition in terms of choosing westminster abbey. there has been a monarch's funeral at westminster abbey since the 18th century. this is an interesting choice of the queen and reflects that increasing openness. it allowed more people to engage
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, and to see what was happening, rather than having the lying in state at westminster hall and then bringing the royal body to windsor for the burial. she has managed to do a blend, where she is bringing in westminster abbey, but then having be private committal service at windsor. honoring the tradition in the last central -- centuries with windsor as the burial site. francine: the queen beloved by most of the country, making her final journey starting at westminster abbey before being laid to rest in with windsor. given all the heads of state of also royalty from around the world, what can liz truss do to address the economic
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difficulties? ellie: this is a very difficult moment for politicians? this is a greater collection of politicians than any summit might be. yet this is a difficult moment, they are not necessarily better to do business. one of the things you never know is the private conversations in corridors, while formal meetings that biden and truss decided to reschedule, those conversations might be interesting to see what fruit they bear by having so many of the great and good here in london for the funeral. tom: there has not been an airing of the diversity of opinions we know exist about the role of the monarchy, arguably the 10 days of mourning is not
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the time to be doing that. are you concerned that a lot of these views are being airbrushed, and does that debate need to be had? ellie: a regnal change is a huge moment for the monarchy. it is looking back and celebrating the life of the long reigning sovereign, but it is also asking what we want the monarchy to be like in the future? it is right to have those conversations. however in this particular moment when we are mourning the loss of elizabeth ii, the focus should be on celebrating her years of service. but i think those conversations are starting to be had, and in the period between the funeral and coronation, those conversations will increase in terms of how will it function, the commonwealth nations will be
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having those conversations as well. anna: the monarchy as it has developed domestically, to be an advisor, to give warning where necessary, is that going to be the definition that charles iii echoes, rather than being more vocal as he has been whilst prince of wales? ellie: while we can never know exactly what is that between the queen and her prime minister's, one of the things several prime ministers have talked about is they value her political experience. she was well-informed, even though she was not telling them what to do, her counsel and experience as she saw so many prime ministers through the role, she was a real sounding board. again, a counselor for the prime minister's. charles is new to the role but has had 70 years of preparation. he is a famously hard worker,
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working into the night to stay on top of everything. i think he too will want to be that counselor. there have been some who have said based on him expressing his opinions as prince of wales, he may try to be too influential but he has made it clear he understands the difference between prince and king. francine: thank you, ellie woodacre, reader at the university of winchester. the abbey has opened to the congregation attending the queen's funeral. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, 30 minutes into the european trading day. global dignitaries from president biden to japan's emperor to send on london to join mourners for the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii.
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a flood of central bank decisions this week as policymakers scramble to tame soaring prices. and upping the ante, president biden says the u.s. would defend taiwan from an unprecedented attack by china. tom, if you look at the markets, activity is dull. the u.k. is closed and cash treasuries in europe also closed. tom: a brutal week for equities last week in europe. the s&p 500 losing about 80%. european stocks have wiped out gains since around mid july. in hong kong, the hsi closing in on a bear market. ignore the ftse, it is closed for the bank holiday commemorating the funeral of queen elizabeth ii. we continue to bring you live coverage of that as well. across the benchmark, losses of
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.6%. heavy selling in france. in germany, a loss of 86 points. there was just one sector in the green, food and beverage by the skin of its teeth. every sector in the red, led by energies. shanghai now easing that lockdown. the expectation that more demand for commodities. nevertheless, energy lower by 1%. looking ahead to crucial decisions by the fed on wednesday, the bank of england and other central banks looking to hike rates francine: the u.s. president has underscored america's commitment to protecting taiwan as chinese incursions mount. >> we agree with what we signed onto to a long time ago. the one china policy, taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence.
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we are not encouraging their being independent, that is their decision. >> but would u.s. forces defend the island? >> yes, if there was an unprecedented attack. francine: bruce, what is the significance of this comment from biden? >> this is the first time the president has made comments like this about the u.s. intervening to defend taiwan. back in may, he was asked if u.s. would get involved militarily if there were a dispute between china or taiwan, and he said yes. he has made similar comments earlier in his presidency as well. you add these up and it seems like president biden is putting -- is making his own version of strategic ambiguity, which is the idea the u.s. has pursued for decades when it comes to relations between the u.s. and china, and taiwan.
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the u.s. does not want to say one way or the other what they were to be a war between the two sides. somebody could look at the wording of what the president said, would the u.s. defend taiwan? does that mean troops would be there, boots on the ground? maybe there is some wiggle room there. tom: we have had china's reaction in the last few minutes. an official in beijing saying president biden breached the pledge not to support taiwan. biden also talking about a call with president xi jinping after that invasion of russia regarding ukraine, what did they discuss? bruce: this was a call back early in the war.
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president biden in this interview with 60 minutes describe some of the contents of that conversation. essentially biden said he told xi that chinese companies shouldn't help russia to evade sanctions. in the interview, he said china has not been providing military assistance to russia. so that's one area where the two sides are not having the same level of conflict. regarding the comments beijing just made about the president's interview, the biden administration says these are not a departure from long-standing u.s. policy. obviously, china sees it differently. this comes at a time when china -u.s. relations are tense. nancy pelosi made her visit to taiwan. the senate foreign relations
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committee just the other day approved on a bipartisan basis, a proposal that would upgrade taiwan's status. so lots of potential landmines going forward in the u.s.-china relationship. tom: really fascinating last week was that comment from vladimir putin around chinese concerns about the russian invasion of ukraine. pointing to potentially friction between beijing and moscow. bruce einhorn, thank you for getting us up to speed, joe biden giving an interview making comments about the need to support taiwan in the event of conflict with the mainland. let's get the first word news now. laura: the european commission has proposed suspending 7.5 billion euros of funds earmarked for combating fraud.
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viktor orban's government still needs to be approved by member states. chengdu has exited its lockdown with 21 million allowed to resume normal life for the first time since the beginning of september. residents will still need a covid test at least once a week, with a negative result needed to enter public transport. ukraine's president has renewed his pledge to retake all russian-controlled territory. ukraine claims some russian military units suffered loss rates of up to 90% in the retreat. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg, tom, francine? francine: companies in europe are shying away from listings because of energy rates and
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record inflation. but not volkswagen, they are looking to raise $9.4 billion from his porsche ipo. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's frankfurt bureau chief. 75 billion euros, is the price range to conservative? kristof: it does reflect that they don't want to be seen as pricing to aggressively. we touched on the very difficult market environment around concerns of an economic slowdown, surging energy costs, there are a number of factors that are not ideal for an ipo. nevertheless, it is from a strategic point of view very important but the valuation does respect some conservatism i guess. tom: why don't they just wait this one out, given the state of
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these capital markets, why the rush to ipo? christoph: i think they want to hammer home the message that they are willing despite the adverse market conditions to push through beepers strategic and structural changes. both wagon group has been criticizes for moving too slowly, for being too bureaucratic maybe to adapt to this rapidly changing industrial landscape. so, for them to accomplish this despite these adverse market conditions is this desire to send a strong signal to investors? francine: once the ipo is done, what can we expect from vw? christoph: that's a very good question because, it is basically their main source of cash along with the audi premium
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auto brand. that has been a long-standing concern for a group that is very much reliant on luxury brands and the mass-market brands are doing less well, and are not very competitive anymore. that's definitely an issue that management will have to address. tom: one of the biggest ipo's potentially in a decade, the ipo of porsche by vw. bloomberg's frankfurt bureau chief. we continue our coverage of the funeral of queen elizabeth ii. we will discuss what her passing means for the future of the commonwealth. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. we are 43 minutes of the european trading day. u.k. closed for a bank holiday to mark the funeral of queen elizabeth ii. you are seeing losses of .5%, accelerating declines we saw last week. the s&p ended lower by around 4.8% for the week, futures ended
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lower as well. here in the u.k., the focus is on the passing of queen elizabeth ii, not only marking the end of an era for this country and beginning of anyone under king charles iii, it also raises questions about the future of the commonwealth. the club of 56 countries evolved out of the british empire after world war ii. we are joined by anna edwards and saul dubow, professor of history at cambridge university. talk to us about the fragility or not, of the commonwealth at this point. saul: it is something people have commented on almost since its inception in the second form
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after 1949. the commonwealth was formed at the beginning of the 20th century, when it was a tightknit group made up of south africa, canada, australia and so forth. it had quite important roles strategically and militarily. after 1949, there was a whole new entrance of asian and african countries. it was really reformed in a context of decolonization. the commonwealth loses something of its strategic objectives, it's a way of redefining a world global community of english-speaking ex-british colonies. it has always been fragile, always looking for a purpose, from the period of apartheid
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when south africa was excluded from the commonwealth, the struggle for human rights became one of the rallying points of the commonwealth. human rights, development, climate change, these are the kinds of things the commonwealth is searching for. francine: professor -- king charles, of course, faces this balancing act as commonwealth head. what can he do different but also similar to his late mother? saul: the commonwealth was a global stage, an area where the global monarchy could be seen. in her very skilled way, she managed to give subtle direction without intervening politically. charles, of course, is someone we know who has very vocal opinions particularly on climate. this is something he will push
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on. there are many commonwealth states, particularly in the pacific, which are immediately affected by climate change. but i think it's important to remember, king charles is not the head of the commonwealth. the commonwealth does not have a hereditary, it is headed by the commonwealth secretariat, the baronet of scotland. she will be reading today alongside liz truss, it is interesting she has been given this position alongside the prime minister. anna: i can see members of parliament arriving. venue chancellor, other prominent members of government and politicians and others across british society.
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professor, sticking with this theme around whether -- around where the commonwealth goes, there does exist some confusion in the public mind around the commonwealth and countries where the king is now head of state. and that confusion is not necessarily helpful because we are seeing lots of republican movements going -- growing in countries where the king's head of state, and countries declaring they do not want to have the royal as their head of state anymore. how does the commonwealth negotiate? saul: after the entrance of india which became a republic, the constitution had to go through a major change. you could stay a member of the commonwealth by being a member of the republic. one of the key problems is the division between the king, who as you say is head of state for about 14 countries, but not of
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most of the commonwealth who either have their own kings or presidents. that i don't think is the real problem. the problem is that there is a kind of parallel power in the commonwealth, which is divided not within the british context between the british government and charles. and that, of course was the case with queen elizabeth. and the british government has not necessarily been helpful to the commonwealth. many years it sniped out the commonwealth, most recently over the summer, the previous prime minister boris johnson was actually agitating not to have the baronet of scotland reaffirmed as the head of the commonwealth. there are real problems there. one of the problems king charles will have to sort out is whether his own presumptive role as symbolic head of the commonwealth, can he continue to
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carve out that domain, and get support from prime minister liz truss? his role as head of 14 commonwealth states is a separate one. our beto's -- barbados having talks about becoming a republic, there is a long-standing tradition in australia. those republican movements which have held off pushing out of respect for queen elizabeth will probably know receive -- probably know receive a boost. but i think the commonwealth will still be able to manage that. tom: academics have argued that part of the movement towards republics within the commonwealth is the failure of the monarchy to address its colonial past. we know king charles iii has talked about the issue of slavery and made something of an
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apology, does fronting up to those issues, but tortured and dark legacy, does that have to happen? saul: that is a very difficult question. queen elizabeth was extremely skilled to be able to gloss over that. but we are in the new stages as it were of the anti-colonial struggle. she came to power when people understood by decolonization of formal transfer of political power. we are now in a situation where racism, slavery and reparations are coming to before. it really is a good question as to how prince charles will be dealing wi one prince williamth th toured the caribbean, it was not a goodat. tour.
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and it is going to be externally difficult for charles. francine: thank you so much, saul dubow they are, professor of history at cambridge. one of the big questions, the role of hereditary monarchs in the 21st century. we continue our coverage of the funeral of queen elizabeth ii. we discussed what her passing means for the commonwealth. we also look at westminster abbey, guests have been filing past the grave of the unknown warrior. heads of state are now coming off the bus to enter the place where the funeral will take place. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think the federal government has to walk a very careful balance between restoring appropriate labor rights. which has been a huge problem for the last 30 years. and doing things that will entrench inflation through wage pressure to the detriment of the overall economy. including the economy of workers
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who work with their hands. tom: that was, of course, larry summers speaking about the state of the u.s. economy. he has called for 100 basis points from the fed. the expectation broadly is 75 from the fed. 500 at least from global central banks this week alone as the rate tightening continues. we are currently 55 minutes into the european trading day. these u.k. closed for queen elizabeth ii's funeral. no training on the ftse 100, across the benchmark losses of .6%. u.s. futures down on the nasdaq. francine: westminster abbey now open to the congregation attending the queens funeral, it will be one of the largest gathering of heads of state and royalty that the u.k. has hosted for decades.
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we expect, of course, the event to start in about an hour or an hour and a half. many questions about how king charles iii will reign going forward. tom: the prime minister liz truss will be giving the second reading. the ceremony will be led by the archbishop of canterbury and at the end there will be at two minutes silence. the cop and will be put on the estate drawn -- coffin will be put on a state drawn carria weg will have plenty moree. for you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition" with francine lacqua. francine: good morning, everyone and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: early edition". i'm francine lacqua in london. global dignitaries f


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