tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg September 19, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
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>> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: welcome to "bloomberg markets: the european close." i'm guy johnson alongside alix steel in new york. i'm here in westminster after the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii. the whole story has progressed to the west of london, to windsor, where the committal service, alix, is about to begin. you can see live pictures from windsor. we will get the latest on that story in a moment. the latest on the markets a
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little bit like this. european equities bounced, the london market the laggard. we are seeing a selloff in the bond market on both sides of the atlantic. alix: let's get to that in the u.s. start at the bottom -- no, ok. this is the european board. dollar is stronger. two year yield up seven basis points. we are a stones throw away from the 4% level. it is a rounded number but we have blown past that on the front end. volatility up but still subdued, as you have the s&p up by .1%. we don't know why we are seeing this chunky movement in the two-year. i wanted to point out what was performing well within the s&p. s&p materials up by a full percentage point. now the materials on the industals, those guys leading the way. i find it to be interesting
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considering that the dollar is up. guy: it is going to be interesting week as we look to the fed meeting. alix, let's take you back to the story in the u.k. it has been dominated by the state funeral of queen elizabeth ii. we can see live pictures from windsor. the royal hers is making its way -- royal hearse is making its way, escorted by the gods to st. george's chapel. bloomberg's lizzy burden joins us now. she joins us from westminster. let's start with what we saw this morning. what struck you about the state funeral? >> guy, this funeral was years in the planning. she was heavily involved in the planning, so it says so much
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about her. she was involved in the gas including the dignitaries around the world from--the guests including the dignitaries around the world from u.s. president joe biden to the japanese prime minister. and she was in a way honoring her people by having them there, too. there is the message of continuity, the new king charles and his children and grandchildren, some of them following the coffin in. and also it was deeply religious. the queen has been so personally religious throughout her life as well as being leader of the church of england and defender of the faith. she let the public in. this is the first fully televised funeral, just as her coronation seven years ago was the first televised --70 years
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ago was the first televised coronation. what shook miasma was this pointed message from the archbishop of canterbury. she said she will be loved and remembered when those who cling to power and privilege will be forgotten. the situation we are in with the war going on in a global economic crisis. guy: lizzy, we are looking at live pictures from windsor. the royal hearse is approaching st. george's chapel. we saw the queen. explain the difference between these two events. lizzy: well, we go from the queen's public role to a much more intimate ceremony here. 2000 people at westminster abbey to 800 and windsor. that is the place she called home. that is the place she took her
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name. she will be buried at the spotlight with her husband, philip, and her sister and her parents. it is the small family unit into which she was born that really reminds us she was never destined to be queen, and yet somehow he ended up being the longest reigning monarch -- she ended up being the longest reigning monarch. a poignant return to windsor tonight. alix: we have seen live shots of king charles. what happens after the day of mourning? lizzy: it will be many months before the coronation. that was the case for his mother. but it is different for charles. he may not want to wait so long in order to continue the continuity. in the meantime it is time for liz truss, the new prime minister, to get on with the business of government. this 11-day period of mourning
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has meant that her government has been in a state of suspended animation. after this time ends, we will have liz truss flying to new york for her first formal bilateral with joe biden at the u.n. general assembly, and then on friday we are expected to hear those tax-cut pledges that truss made in her campaign, but also a 2.5% growth target. the question with both is how much will that to inflation and how much will it add to borrowing, especially at a time when the pound is so weak? guy: thank you very much indeed. lizzy burden joining us from westminster. joining us to discuss more is a lecturer in law at langley university. he is an expert in u.k.
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constitutional law and politics with a focus on the monarchy and parliament. thank you for your time this afternoon. do you think the royal family, do you think the country, do you think the world will ever see a royal event like this again? >> i think it is quite doubtful. i think so much of our view of monarchy has been shaped by the reign of the queen, and this might be in some ways the old monarchy's last hurrah in that the international element of the monarchy might be likely to diminish in the years ahead, with some of the commonwealth realms choosing to be republics, and charles himself slimming down the monarchy. we will likely retain the monarchy in the years ahead, but it might be more of a european style where everything is down the down attach. -- dialed down a touch.
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something as spectacular as this may not happen again. alix: can you talk about what that would look like, a monarchy that is more european? craig: it could involve having fewer active members of the royal family, with a greater emphasis on the line of succession. we will have the king and the queen, consort and the prince and princess of wales. and the children forming the mainstem of the monarchy. we make even see in the years ahead perhaps some sharing of the duties of the formal constitutional duties between the king and the prince of wales. that is something that happened a little bit more in continental countries. we may have a very different model of monarchy going ahead. guy: in terms of what the
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slimmed-down monarchy would mean for the country, how should we think about this in terms of the union? in some ways this is the glue or part of the glue that holds this country together. if we see a slimmed-down monarchy, is the effect of the glue reduced? craig: possibly. this is something we're going to have to balance. it is something that charles is seemingly very aware of. yes traveled to belfast and edinburgh and cardiff in the first week of his reign. he can see there is a need to have a presence in the nation. an innocent the u.k.'s changing -- in a sense u.k. is changing. after the war it was unitary state governed by westminster. now with the evolution of the past 20 years and has shown over the pandemic, that is not the case anymore. we increasingly have a union of
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4 nations with its own political center. it is going to have to have a presence in each of the 4 nations. we have an indication already that charles and william and catherine the princess of wales on the first day of his reign. it shows that he is aware of it and the need to balance the competing elements. alix: with the scenario you laid out, craig, will the monarchy be able to state a political -- stay apolitical? craig: yes, that is very much its role. if you slimmed-down you will be focused more on the ceremonial matters, rather than getting engaged in political causes or
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getting too close to politics. there is clearly a role for a ceremonial head of state, supported by other members of the royal family. it is away from politics and still able to provide a point of unity that the queen was able to do for 70 years. guy: we are going from a queen to a king. we have a queen consort and a princess of wales that are both significant forces within the royal family. how important is their role going to be? craig: i think there roles are going to be incredibly important. something really interesting, we have not had a queen consort for some considerable time now. it is going to be interesting to see how she carves out that role. having that title queen is a significant, but she is not a
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ruling queen in any way. camilla has done interesting work as duchess of cornwall on increasing childhood reading and domestic violence and other difficult causes. but i can imagine her continuing those sorts of functions -- there is a role for the monarchy to draw attention to at times difficult causes the day-to-day politics may not focus on. alix: craig, we appreciate your time today. craig prescott, lecturer in law at bangor university. u.k. is open up again for business, and it will be a busy week. we will break down what is next. this is bloomberg.
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friday the government will reveal details of its energy plan and budget. that is a lot. let's bring in bloomberg's roslyn matheson. that is a lot for the u.k. to take on. it has effectively been shut down for 10, 11 days. walk us through what you will be focusing on. >> on top of that there are two other things happening this week. on wednesday the u.k. government will set out how it will help businesses deal with the energy crisis, before the many budget happens on friday. on thursday on top of it, they will lay out a plan to fix the national health service, which has been under funded and cratering for many years. a really big agenda for liz truss after the period of mourn ing for queen elizabeth. a lot of the challenges have been piling up with the u.k. government in caretaker mode under boris johnson. there is no time to waste getting these things done.
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traveling between the u.s. and back to the u.k., liz truss needs to keep the far right of her party, the tories who voted her in, on her side. she will announce a very big package of spending which goes against everything she campaign for when she was running for the tory leadership. guy: ros, what are the risks here? we are going to see this government delivering a dash for growth. what are the risks of that being almost too quick? rosalind: of course the risk is that it pushes the boe into bigger rate hikes and there was talk of 75 basis points later this week because they will buffer growth so quickly and put an inflationary dash on top of it. how much can actually work, though? winter sets in and the u.k., and politically how can she navigate this with her tory party?
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those on the right that we voted to be small government, small regulation, hands off government, and now you are unleashing huge amount of spending. she has to keep them happy? how is she going to do that. she is going to crackdown on the unions. alix: we will talk more about the boe at the moment, but how does the boe look at this? they will say we are independent, i get that, but there is so much from the government that affects how they will manage when it hit of tightening and rate hikes. --manage quantitative tightening and rate hikes. rosalind: that will be a very interesting conversation, to say the least. the boe will say they are independent. there was some talk in the leadership campaign for the tory party that liz truss might be willing to re-examine the boe's mandate, because she think they are to it fixated on inflation. --two fixated on inflation. those comments from her will be parsed when they meet this week.
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the boe will operate on what it thinks is best for the economy. they think this will push growth faster than they thought, maybe 75 basis points on the table. guy: ros, when does the truss government pivot to try to please the tory faithful to trying to please the country? rosalind, well, that is going to be the balancing act for her. she will have a little bit of goodwill, she will have a little bit of time with the tory party to get these policies done. they want to give her an opportunity to run the government after what we saw as the chaos in the last month of johnson's administration. there will be an effort to show some kind of unity behind her. she will stand tough on the unions, for example, will try to lifted the ban on fracking, very popular with the right wing of the tory party, and perhaps the most popular one of all,
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throwing things their way also. the thing is if she doesn't deliver quickly on the economy, there will be calls to rein the stimulus back in. she has a small window to deliver before they come calling for her. guy: thank you very much indeed, as ever. ros mathieson on the busy week that lies ahead. coming up, the largest ipo of the year globally. volkswagen is looking to raise from porsche's initial public offering. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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is not authorized to offer financial services or products in the u.k. if anything goes wrong, investors are unlikely to get their money back. no, yet from the company. european union is building on lessons learned during the pandemic, drawing on emergency powers to block audits. the vice president says the eu needs new tools that will allow it to act fast and collectively. volkswagen wants to raise $4 billion from the ipo of iconic sports carmaker porsche. it would be the largest listing this year globally. vw is seeking a valuation of $25 billion, blow with earlier top end goal. that is the latest business flash. guy: thank you very much indeed. let's continue the conversation with porsche's ipo and let's go
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to our munich bureau chief. let's talk the numbers, first of all. 85 to 75. is volkswagen being conservative or realistic? >> well, i think the evaluation is not like -- they don't seem to be pushing too hard on the price side of things. you mentioned the $85 billion in valuation making the rounds the past two weeks. we saw a more cautious analyst report from hsbc that pointed to lower evaluation. the current range is pretty much right in the middle. alix: do you get the sense it is because of the structure we are going to see for the ipo that they need to entice investors, or do you think it is market conditions? christoph: probably, nation of multiple factors -- probably a culmination of multiple factors.
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one of the reasons they seem to be keen on making sure that the stock has room to breathe, we have seen that in ipo's for aston martin, priced on a pretty high evaluation. that did not do the stock any good. this is a different story. different equity narrative. they seem to be keen to not overspend on the pricing side. guy: christoph, the family is going to be pulling a bigger role in this. can you explain what their role is going to be and how much influence they are going to be able to exert over this? christoph: they are probably the decisive factor driving for this deal. it will allow them to regain some direct influence over what used to be the family-owned business. just over 10 years ago they lost direct control after porsche tried to take over volkswagen, which is much larger than
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porsche, obviously, in part for pretty complex deal. but the family through the ipo will regain a direct blocking minority in porsche with a stake of 25%, plus one share. alix: before we let you go, is there a lot of interest? who is going to buy it? christoph: quite a few investors seem to be excited. we have had 4 shareholders who have committed prices central funds, and what we are hearing from conversations across the industry, there is quite a significant number of family offices also reaching out to express interest in investment. on the demand side of things, they seem to be in a comfortable position. guy: christoph, great update. looking for to the coverage of this one. christoph rauwald, munich bureau chief.
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guy: most of the day in negative territory before starting to climb back over the last hour or so, but it hasn't felt convincing, and it's been very much led by what we've seen in the united states. in terms of the way the session has developed, you'll get a better idea of what i'm talking about if i show you that, as you can see, this climb back up throughout most of late morning, into the early afternoon, just
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beginning to fade now. basically back to flat, 408 is the number on the stoxx 600. as i say, volume a little on the light side. the cac, i'm looking at right now, down by 41%, which gives you something you can work on on the bloomberg terminal, just to give you a fact that london is out, a big chunk of the trading volume. let's show you what is going on there. we have chemicals and also out, a big chunk of the trading fairly good day. we've been talking about volkswagen and about the upcoming i.p.o. we got volkswagen trading very well. we got b.m.w. trading very well as well. those names certainly getting a boost today. but a defensive tint to the market, i would argue. let's show you some of the happening there. volkswagen, it is up by 1.1%. the interesting thing is that
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basically porsche is going to be something similar to what volkswagen is worth. that needs to be corrected. any tacking a little bit lower, we are seeing the energy stocks under pressure and wrapping up a continued belief that the ukrainians are going to need significantly, significant further weapons to be supplied by the west. germany obviously front and center in this big debate happening in berlin at the moment, how quickly she should take place. one of the big producers in germany, that stock, alix, trading up by 3.5%. alix: it's hard to shine the light away from the u.k. it's an extraordinarily busy week. you have president biden meetin. the british prime minister lives truss, and then details on the u.k.'s energy plan, plus a budget. there is a lot going on. let's get it from the economics side. chief strategist for the e.c.b. and fixed income research joins us now. there's a lot to get through, because it's also 500 basis
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points of rate hikes that could come from multiple central banks. for the b.o.e. specifically, what are you thinking on thursday? >> well, we are leaning more on this side with a rake height expected. this is naturally -- but we are seeing certain tests that we believe will weigh on this, most notably we have seen a repricing of the markets since the august -- obviously we saw it just a month and a half ago. >> if we look at what's going to happen the following few days, we're going to see a big fiscal event taking place on friday. we're going to have a fiscal event running throughout the week, as we see the unveiling of the friday. but friday, that's coming together. this is a government that is trying to amp up, juice this economy, trying to deliver some growth. what does that mean for the bank of england? are we going to see higher rates
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as the balancing factor of that dash for growth here in the u.k.? >> absolutely, because i think there will be multiple of those rate hikes coming by the end of the year and also hikes into next year. the government sub i'dys of those what is now about 60% of g.d.p. is similar to what's going to come. it's going to be spread out some time, but definitely complicates the job for bank of england to get this recession that was embedded in the projections, cover up, talked about in the august meeting, well, they just prolong this growth and keep it up, so it's really going to complicate the picture quite a lot from the bank of england. so i would say what is really the bank of england is the peak of inflation that's going to be low enough, but it's going to be a longer and prolonged period, also into next year. alix: no doubt it's super complicated for the b.o.e., but i think it makes any tightening 17 times more difficult.
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i mean, the b.o.e. is going to try to sell 895 billion pounds of assets, at the same time you can see major issuance coming from the government. how are these two going to match up? >> on the curve, we have seen it the past couple of months, and they were the front-runners, and i think it's going to come to a halt. i think we're going to see people, especially the 10 to 20-year region, simply because of this message, this method, and on top also, the issues you're talking about. so it's really going to be this curve that's going to come toe a halt and we're going to go the other direction in the u.k. guy: let's talk about other jurisdictions, the e.c.b. the bundebank equals he feels like equal is some time off.
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what do you believe, is it playing to its traditional strength of being hawkish, or do you think there may be a case where the e.c.b. does have to go further here? >> i definitely think there's a case that they need to go further, because i would say the traditional way of seeing the purchasing power be essentially away, but it is no longer the case. and we are seeing subsidies coming left, right and center also in europe, so this protection of the consumer is something that -- there's definitely a case for a continued hike, and by how much, well, the essentials the e.c.b. will hike through next year. sob it's much longer than what i also had previously expected from the e.c.b. growth may be too strong, so don't get this inflation setback as we want. alix: what's it going to take for the central bank rhetoric to
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match up with the reality so markets can catch up? the e.c.b. has been pretty hawkish across the board. the fed really hawkish across the board. yet we're still pricing in cuts for next year. how does that change? >> well, we need to see continued strong growth from the european side. i think we shouldn't negate that they're strong in europe, but 4.5%, something we haven't seen in decades. so it is really a strong labor market that we look into. naturally it's it's purchasing power, but i think where markets can be priced is we do not see this recession coming as quickly as previously anticipated. i still have a recession in my profile. guy: you see the central banks having to tighten, tighten, opportunity. what i'm curious about is the rates at which that has to take place. you've got 50, 50, 50, if the fed was to go 100 this week, how
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would other central banks, how would european central banks have to respond to that? >> well, i think for now, definitely go 75 in october, because the fed has paved the way for this to be a hike, 75 basis points at a time, and if they're also 200, well, then they also seem to be doing this. but i don't think they will come this far, and even i think on the european side, it's much more -- so this is really the focal point over the past many, many years, so i think they want to focus on that. so 75 at most by the e.c.b., and then q.t. alix: what about neutral rates? is that getting revised? we're at 4 to 5? >> for european side, we are
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slightly higher, in that case i think it seems, but in the current environment, i think that they will go beyond that point. how much are they also in germany and italy for that matter. so i'm not sure that the real neutral rate is massively higher than the .5%, which has this, but the coming two years, we may see rates significantly higher, but i'm not sure we concluded this period of negative interest rates all together. guy: thank you very much indeed. greatly appreciate it. thank you very much indeed. let's talk about where european markets are finished today. we do have london out. we are watching events unfolding westminster, and we will certainly be talking about that. these are the final numbers out of europe.
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the cac quarante back into negative territory. a light volume day with london out. as i say, we now have a committal service taking place at windsor, st. george's chapel. we'll certainly be talking about that, alix, and i, on the cable show. we're on digital radio. find us on all of your bloomberg devices, spotify and apple for the podcasts later on. alix? alix: coming up, we'll continue the conversation around gold. it has been struggling this year as the fed hawks hawkish. we're going to break down the state of the market with peter next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> keeping up with news around the world, a recession now looks almost inevitable by economists. there's a probability of two straight quarters at contraction at 80% in the next 12 months, up from 60% in a previous survey. there's growing concern that an energy squeeze this winter will force a slump in economic activity. the executive arm has recommended freezing $7.5 billion in funds in hungary. that's because of allegations of corruption and fraud. orban has rewritten the constitution and extended his influence over the courts and education. and ukraine's president zelenskyy has renewed his pledge to retake all russian-controlled territory after the country's
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recent advances. ukraine claims that some russian military units had a rate of 90%. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analyst in more than 120 countries. 6 this is bloomberg. alix: the gold price fell to the lowest level since 2020 as the dollar strength picked up, and in the last hour we spoke to the c.e.o. of the world gold council on prices. >> what you've really got is not really a perfect storm, but a combination of things that has given it pause. when you look at that in its entirety, you could argue very much so that gold is not doing particularly badly compared to where it could be. alix: joining us now live from the denver gold forum is the gold executive chairman, and
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they have assets. this is currently in the process of a takeover of the company. peter, great to get your perspective. it didn't feel like a glowing recommendation for gold, but even in the industry for quite a long time, and i'm wondering how you see the gold price evolving as you keep climbing and the dollar keeps climbing as well. >> in this industry you have to be optimistic, so perhaps this will come out, but it is underpinned by what i think is a sang win. if we look at a low point that we haven't seen since 2020, then we have to go back perhaps to 2015, 2016, and see what the gold price was and how to get it in 2020 and how it compares to today. again, it's very difficult to put a price over a short period of time, even over the course of months and quarters. directionally the price continues to be strong and get
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stronger. i'm not surprised that gold prices in the 1600's, fallen from wrestles where it was at, and the u.s. dollar has definitely shown strength and resilience. equally, i think that the direction the gold price will find and will start to establish upside down. and where i think that really resonates for me, and i'm sure they see it asian, if we look at these levels, we begin to see the strong support coming from countries like india. china has been in covid restrictions for a very long period of time. it begins to manifest itself and will begin to see strong gold prices again. guy: good morning, it's guy. let's just talk about the indian buyer. rule india is having a tough time of things at the moment. gold purchases are going down as a result of that. do you expect that to have a meaningful impact?
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do you think the average gold buyer, the person or institution that buys gold is changing significantly at the moment? >> i'm not close enough in the way that the world gold council would be. to the move and the abilities of what's been buying, but i would say that if you look at gold in the u.s. dollars, it is down to where it was a year ago and several months ago. but if we look at other currencies, it's actually remeaning very strong, and using that word again, i think it's demonstrating resilience. i think all in all, it is, in some respects, something that i would agree with, which is that it's doing what it's supposed to do. not necessarily if it goes down, doesn't go down a lot, but better than the market and serves as an underpinning to a
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defensive asset, during a time when there's not geopolitical uncertainty. alix: i mentioned the gold field is in the process of a takeover to really expand into the americas, and as i mentioned earlier, you have assets in canada, argentina, chile and brazil. how do you see the inflation picture evolving in each of these regions, and does it change what they're going to do with each of these different regions? >> whatever was the headline inflation issue several quarters ago, it has begun to dissipate. we've indicated that globally across all of our operations, and remember, taking into account inflation has to be seen as the one side of the coin to what happens in the global currencies. when hoe% to 45% of our costs are labor and labor-related, in other words, contractors that
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serve many of the functions, we have to be very sensitive to local currencies. from the lens of that balance between what's happening with local currencies and also what's happening with inflation in country and globally, we are well again the tolerance of what we indicated in the year, we said at the beginning of the year, we would expect in the range of 3% as an upside risk for costs, and that's what we're seeing. guy: cryptocurrency, bitcoin being hit hard right now. they've been battered. if that happens, do you think that takes the people that are looking for something that is gold-like back to gold if they can't get that same thing in crypto? >> guy, it's a discussion that i had with a couple of my older children during that age bracket that these, everything is
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digital, so cryptocurrencies, crypto assets, and i'm a little bit more old school, and so it seems that i've been able to persuade them, and they've been able to pervade me that i should be looking at crypto assets. the result, however, i think are two fundamentally different asset classes, and i've never believed in bitcoin or the other cryptocurrencies, crypto assets generally. i've never believed that it was a substitute for gold. it appeared that way for a period of time. they're demonstrating that's not the case. cryptocurrencys are behaving more like technology stocks than they are gold. guy: peter, great to catch up much hope the rest of the conference goes well. we appreciate your time today from yamana gold. thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪ how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings.
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alix: u.s. stocks real trying to find direction. abigail doolittle is tracking that. >> it's like a roller coaster. it is because it is a roller coaster. this is a two-day chart, and it's moved up and down. probably the real point to make is that one of our producers on the market team is making, wisely so, 3900, 3950 is acting as resistance over the last two days, not huge moves. that's a one-day move. so right now down about .2%. but the voluntarily at this timity that we've seen continue. friday was triple witching, so this is not surprising. it's going to be interesting to see whether or not the bulls or bears take this range. that's what makes it interesting, what way it breaks out. we shall know perhaps soon, perhaps after the fomc meeting concludes on wednesday. as for a break class, it's all about the porsche i.p.o. they are now looking at a $9.4 billion, or so it's interesting that you can say that euro to
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raise that much money, they are bringing it in quite considerably. it had been $85 billion closer to $75 billion. we'll see how that shakes out. but it has a lot of strength for some of the other car stocks. tesla, g.m., ford, and, of course, the offer period starts tomorrow. it's expected to start trading on september 29. just as it's thought to be solid, and a lot of this money raise ready go to the efforts. others criticizing the timing on this, but nonetheless, it seems the i.p.o. market is alive and somewhat well. finally, let's take a look at this move on yields that we've had and the influence on banks and the s&p 500. what we're looking at here in orange is the 10-year yield, and you can see basically this relentless backup. yes, there is a sideways range, but now we're breaking out of the range. that has pushed stocks lower. you would expect, guy, that banks in blue would get a little bit of a lift off that, but if we also had one of the yield curves on here, you would see the yield curve going in the
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same direction, and that is what seems to be weighing on the banks, even as yields go sky high. guy: abigail, amazing to watch, thank you very much. let's talk about what's going to be happening in the next 24 hours. it is a busy week. today, we continue to monitor events in windsor, the queen's burial is taking place. climate week in new york city also begins, alix. alix: otherwise known as lots of traffic. speaking of, high-level debate will begin in the united nations. you got u.s. housing starts and britain is back to business. so definitely a lot to come out. that's enough for me on television. coming up, a former member of the council of economic advisors will be joining us on bloomberg television and radio. guy and i will continue the conversation on the cable, as well as check it out on a podcast. happy monday, everybody. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the world of business, this is balance of power with david westin. david: from bloomberg world headquarters, welcome to balance of power. a brisk start to his -- biden's visit to london to visit -- he will appear at the general assembly and by the way he had a bilateral meeting with liz truss, the new prime minister of the united kingdom. he had an interview that made some news. let us go through this rather packed agenda.
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