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tv   Bloomberg Technology  Bloomberg  November 11, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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caroline: this technology. coming up, the ftx fallout continues. laying out the timeline for his company's bankruptcy. we dive into cryptocurrencies and the future of underlying technology. twitter suspended its subscription program to combat a growing problem of user impersonating. the tech space under a major restructuring. you would never know what looking at the markets. the nasdaq 100 notched its biggest two day record run, up 9%. the since 2008. even though we see layoffs at meta and amazon trimming its workforce, not to mention disney. alter that in a moment. first, the markets. emily is with us to just run through what was an you norma's
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run up in the last two days of the nasdaq 100. emily: best two day gain since 2008. you can see the outperformance in technology stocks against the s&p 500. amazon higher after they announced those cost-cutting measures. amd outperforming, they unveiled new server chips which may help them sustain market share over intel. less green on the screen when it comes to crypto. bitcoin and ether plunging further today. ftt, ftx's utility token, almost 90% drop in the last six days. ftx filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy and it has been an historic week. there's probably a lot more to come when we look at crypto. a lot of red there. summing up the bleak, we have seen a nice equity rally.
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s&p 500 up about 6% on the week. all of that related to the optimism of maybe the fact we have reached peak inflation. however, anyone skeptical of the rally, calling it a bear market rally, points to the fact that we are seeing the most speculative areas of the market likely arc innovation etf outperforming. people see -- people say that when you see speculative areas doing better, we are still in bear market territory. the best week for meta since 2013 after they announced layoffs. much-needed relief for that stock. caroline: always slightly painful when shares rise after cost-cutting. but investors always seem to like that. meanwhile, markets. let's stick with our audience. we asked you, amid the myriad of
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news, the fact we had layoffs and ftx imploding, the fact we still have this runoff, but was the most important thing that caught your eye? you told us it was not twitter or meta, but ftx bankruptcy. did iraq to greifeld? is it a shocker for you? it ago it was the biggest shocker. -- katie: i was so young and naive. i didn't know that ftx was on sale. if you had told me we would see the crypto exchange, one of the biggest players in the space file for baker see, i would not have believed you. if you told me bitcoin would be around $17,000 after that, i would not have believed. we have obviously seen a rocky crypto market this week. a little bit of resilience for -- resilience.
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caroline: therefore, let's talk about the ripple effects. the issue that we see across the rest of markets. that is where we are going. for once, the correlations have broke down. you still have shock and are, but that did not hold back the nasdaq. >> this is playing out in the most dramatic way possible. on the upside, you have the nasdaq 100 looking at one of its best weeks in years. it's best just get a run since 2008. previously until this week, stocks and crypto were tied at the hit -- tied at the hip. the crypto bulls would say this decoupling would be such a relief for the crypto market. the decoupling happened. it was not bullish at all. tech stocks ripping after the cpi report.
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>> what is interesting is concerns about tech layoffs. suddenly we are in a different paradigm. companies that we thought no matter what were unstoppable are now having to trim. the latest headline from disney, they are looking at freezes and may job cuts. we saw it from meta. is that something we should prepare ourselves for? we've got earnings next week. katie: these headlines are unfortunately common when you have the fed hiking aggressively. this is the impact of tightening financial conditions. these are the news events we unfortunately have to get used to. the new contrast that with what we see in the markets, it goes to show the cold-blooded nature of markets. forward-looking stance of markets. when you start to see these headlines into start to see the impact of these fed rate hikes, maybe that gets us closer to the end.
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you pair that with the cpi print we got, a seven handle. cooler than expected. that maybe gets us closer to the end destination. caroline: for many, this market is dangerous. the fact that jonathan gollum said it was an overreaction. one to bear in mind as we digest the data. katie greifeld, a different person from a week ago. [laughter] sticking on crypto, let's talk ftx. that's talk about the rippling across the ecosystem. i have seen your byline on every single piece of update we have been having. you must be exhausted but not as exhausted as a man whose wealth went from $16 billion to zero. what is the next knock on effect? what are we waiting for an terms about news of bankruptcy? >> the bankruptcy news itself is a huge shocker for the industry. no one had seen this coming.
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when i started the week, i did not know how this was going to pan out. we are seeing some contagion effect. voyager, a bankrupt lender, was supposed to be bailed out by ftx. they now have to restart their bidding process. because of this bankruptcy procedure. at the same time, even for big crypto market such as genesis they have money that is trapped in their ftx and they have to get capital infusion from their parent group. we are expecting to see more companies coming out to disclose impact. we know from the bankruptcy itself, from alameda, there is 100,000 creditors listed. there liabilities is at least to be over $10 billion. the size and scope should not be
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underestimated. it is the biggest bankruptcy we have seen this year. caroline: extraordinary. the paul from grace of sam bankman-fried himself, there will be movies and books. the investigations that now continue into him and what indeed has occurred, is that going to be happening in the same timeframe? where do we think of the bucks are going to stop dropping? >> investigations usually lag but u.s. investigators are investigating. whether their conclusion will come out soon is uncertain. sam bankman-fried himself is also be -- also being investigated by ccp. we are going to see a lot of angry customers as a result, lots of angry regulators all over the world. looking at the occasions for this event. caroline: the lawyers are the only people that win in these
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scenarios. there's going to be a torturous process of unfolding this. how many people are telling you there are further counterparties? we have already heard from the sequoias, marking down their overall holding. we have already seen what softbank's indication was. you mentioned genesis? >> it is still too early to say which company is going to be the next to fall. there is one point we should be more hopeful about, which is compared to the event in april when the industry had a huge deleveraging event from the terror collapse, the crypto industry today is much smaller. a lot of the lenders have already deleveraging. this is not a good news, it is a 1-2 punch.
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but at the same time, the industry is already downsized significantly from the beginning of the year. caroline: for many, they hope there is calm after that. an extraordinary story that continues to unfold. coming up, twitter suspending its subscription program because of too many fake accounts. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: let's talk about twitter. suspending its eight dollars subscription program that launched earlier this week. in an effort to combat a growing problem of users impersonating brands and people. i am pleased to say a rather exhausted alex barinka is joining us. talk to us for a moment about what seems to be the u-turns going on. is this a startup culture once again with the ceo just throwing things against the wall? >> my neck is hurting with the whiplash. this move is one of those things. the rollout this idea of eight dollars for more users to have the blue check that used to signify veracity. it has been impersonated by the
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likes of folks pretending to be eli lilly, saying insulin is now free. it is not. a big up roy here because it all plays into the proliferation of misinformation. we have seen it on the platform before. in a pre-elon musk world, twitter tried to walk it down. but in just five business days time, it seems the misinformation, whether in just or more serious has played a bigger role. caroline: talk us through the irony of this proliferation of businesses that are not actually those businesses. elon musk himself wanted to move away from an advertising model because he was more concerned about those businesses not advertising because he was worried about this up scripture model. -- maybe becoming a checking account provider? what are we hearing from this man at the leadership levels
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right now about the direction of travel for business? >> so -- sources have told bloomberg they are looking for 50% of revenue to come from subscriptions. elon musk came from paypal. he has talked about payments. could you send money to people? could we give everyone $10 to start? it seems like they are pushing some of these ideas rather quickly and it seems like they are potentially pushing these ideas before they have thought through all of the implications with the blue check issue being the lead one. i want to underpin how important this is for elon musk to figure out. he told employees in the past 24 hours the word bankruptcy. if we don't figure out how to make subscriptions work, the company could be in dire straits. lots of pressure to figure out what is the thing, but it seems the darts they are throwing are
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not landing in a way that is keeping twitter a place where people, brands and governments want to spend time. caroline: it is a difficult question, but when i look at our opinion writer in london who is saying basically we might be watching twitter implode in real time and that some are debating as to whether he is purposefully running the business into the ground, how many are echoing those concerns? >> if you spend time on twitter, you have seen those questions. he is confidently talking about how he is going to change the platform and reignite free speech. but it was weeks ago he said he did not want to own this asset at all. when you think about the $13 billion in debt this company has come a 3700 employees who are fired who are now getting severance, throwing around the idea of bankruptcy is something
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that could be a knock on of what he could do. i will remind you that elon musk with tesla and spacex, in the context of those companies, has also thrown out the b word. he has proven himself not to be the typical ceo, who would throw that out for fear of stoking bad fears. but he has used this language before. with him perhaps there is more of a wait and see. if this is something he truly believes the company is headed in that direction. or if it is maybe his motivation tech tech -- tactic. caroline: and make them do that from the office with no free food. a minor detail in a complex story. let's continue the conversation from an economist perspective. we've got a real expert for you. the ceo of -- ceo and founder of mikmak.
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an analytics platform for huge grants that depend on you understanding where you should put your money to work when it comes to spending, advertising, social media. what are you seeing? what are your numbers telling you? >> right now, if you like we are living a movie about social media. except this time, it is a different platform. in the last 30 days, is 75% decline in twitter traffic. of which, 80% happens that happened since october 27, when elon took ownership. >> talk through that traffic drop, what does that mean? does that mean the companies who are talking to just don't want to be affiliated? they are not posting? were, are people not interacting?
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>> at mikmak, we get traffic through national jewel media across all major social platforms. when we see a decline in traffic committed means ad spend is being paused. the thing about advertising is that it is easy to turn on and off. while things are volatile right now, it is better for advertisers to take a backseat then expose their brand reputation. caroline: i was speaking with the amex ceo. he was talking about putting their money to work on a marketing perspective to address their values. this is why general mills is pulling back on twitter and gm has done the same. i am interested, as this also an environment of recession. people might be pressing pause everywhere. is that the case? is this idiosyncratic? >> does not the case. right now it is q4, when 60% of media spend normally happens.
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we are seeing spend on meta-, snap, tiktok, google. people are spending. spend is now being reallocated outside of twitter into these other channels. >> where is it benefiting the most? >> you can probably guess. in the last seven days, we have seen a 20% increase in tiktok traffic. caroline: just today i was on tiktok and suddenly i found myself perusing some leisure brand. i didn't even realize i was doing it native within the app until i clicked out and didn't actually buy what i was going to buy. is it actually a different reason? >> tiktok is personalized. it is scary how well the app knows you. new open tiktok right then and there, they have a high consideration, knowing what you want to buy. we have seen amazing conversion on the platform. unlike other social platforms,
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you can get huge bang for your buck organically. this of the other social platforms have to pay to play. >> a lot of people have been wringing their hands about the noise that has been built into the system. many labeling, lots of ceos would like to lay blame at apple's feet is to perhaps some of the direct targeting has become less efficient. i am interested in how you are seeing this moment. what are your clients wanting? do they want to have more effective use of social media? what are they saying? >> changes have unknown brand media. platforms like meta used to be an amazing conversion channel. ever since the changes apple made, you are seeing spend shift out of national branch channels into environments like retail media. you look at amazon's most recent earnings, advertising drew 20% quarter over quarter.
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there's really strong roi within those environments and branch safety. you don't have to worry about -- in an environment like amazon. caroline: i love that you bring us back to branch safety. is there anything in the here and now that will change that twitter traffic? >> this is not the first time a moment like this has happened. in 2017, brands paused. in summer 2020, brands paused on facebook because of hate speech. both platforms inevitably regain the trust of advertisers. what it took was the corporate executive team going from conference room to conference room and showing that they can stabilize their platform and deliver on their words. i do not think this has to be a for everything for twitter. with the industry needs to see is stability and action, not words. caroline: thank you for coming in the studio.
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such a great voice. rachel tipograph founder of mikmak. after the break, we are talking bout the layoffs across the sector. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: the soft pink founder says he will no longer speak at earnings presentations. the arm that is doing a lot of investing had a $7.2 billion quarterly loss due to the write-downs on tech investments. softbank was the world's most aggressive investor, has virtually halted new investments and focused instead on its balance sheet. alibaba deciding not to disclose full sales results for its singles' day.
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alibaba said in a statement the gross value was in line with last years gm the performance, despite macro challenges and covid related impact. some forecasts say it could signal a decline unprecedented in the company's history. coming up, the metaverse. is it here to stay? is the height for real? about the here and now for you here in real life? what about your job? we are talking about that and more trends within technology with activate's michael wolf. mtv, consultant of old, we get his insights. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is the first of many
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cuts we are going to see not only for these companies, but companies written large. we have seen over hiring, over inventorying, over ordering and that all has to get romney out. these companies are starting to take action and that is a positive. caroline: you were just hearing from mike wilson, morgan stanley strategist, about the current landscape of tech layoffs. let's dig in a little more. plus, much other topics with michael wolf. management consulted, coo and president of mtv. on the board of yahoo!. a man who understands what it is like to swim down businesses. what do you make of not only disney saying they are going to be cutting jobs, we heard from the artist formerly known as facebook. these are significant.
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>> there are a lot of other companies. striped, lyft. if you look at the numbers, in a lot of ways they overshot. they expected the growth they saw during the pandemic would be sustained. meta in 2017 had 25,000 employees. 2019 50,000. after the cuts, they are still at 75,000. this is just going back to yesterday a little bit and it is also a moment in which they need to say to their investors, we are going to focus on profitability and recognize the realities of the web. caroline: what is interesting is the manner in which these are being announced. to his credit, mark zuckerberg had a moment. he said it was his personal responsibility. you hear that from other leaders as well.
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shopify was the first to announce they had gotten the trajectory wrong. on the other side, elon musk is doing out -- doing it without much emotion. how do you think about the ways in which these messages are delivered? >> overall we are losing 100 thousand jobs from those companies. if you look at it from the perspective of the overall market, all of those people are going to find other jobs. there is tremendous demand for technology talent and everything from finance to government to health care. in startups, there's 200 $50 billion in venture capital waiting to be deployed. when you look at these companies and you think about where their cuts are going to come from, the bigger issue is they've got to find new sources for growth. in every one of these cases, they are all depended on the old
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sources of growth. that is why they are coming to our company. cost has a huge human toll, but it is much more difficult and growth. caroline: let's talk about the growth that hopefully some of these people are getting decent severance packages are able to set up their own startups. or meta, doubling down on their continued trajectory of a different kind of growth, a focus on web three. you are a man who puts together future analysis, putting together what 2023 is going to look like. is meta the right bet? >> the metaverse is all about virtual reality. what has happened overall is we are already past the hype cycle. we have hit the peak of hype and no we are going to see sustained investment but the sustained investment may not be in the places meta is focus.
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for example, the metaverse does not necessarily mean virtual reality. in fact, research shows that most people don't spend more than 30 minutes at any one time in virtual reality. a lot of it is going to start in video games. when you look at the metaverse, you have between four video games, 300 million people spending a great deal of their lives. on average 11 hours a month and some are spending 40 hours a week. they are all metaverse platforms. the idea that this is way off in the future, none of it is spending time with an oculus headset. every company is going to take a different bet. caroline: roblox helped with this idea of a metaverse.
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we can see that is maybe where crypto comes in. you have a native digital currency. when are we starting to see that -- when we start to see the fallout, is that going to impact the metaverse via the true direction of travel? >> the payments that are taking place inside those large platforms are not crypto. when people look at metaverse, they think web three and metaverse are the same things. they are not. web three depends on decentralized protocols. metaverse is the consumer layer. in the same way we saw the browser was necessary for the internet, metaverse is going to be necessary for web three. we are way far off and seeing the applications of these technologies in web three. what has happened today with ftx shows that the tools may be valuable but their application is going to take a wild.
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airline could therefore when hiring -- i'm -- caroline: is the workflow in the right space? these companies, have they got the right resources or letting go of the wrong people? >> there is an old saying that the technology company with the best technologists win. they are keeping the people they need. but a neighbor of people with those skills, whether it is ai, those people are going to go to other places. we are going to see what we have seen in different waves, they will go other places and start other businesses. one of the keys for each of these companies is going to be to figure out where they are going to experience growth and where growth opportunities are going to be, then aligning the people they have in those areas. and quickly moving out of areas where they do not see growth in the future. caroline: michael wolf. come back when you are talking to all of these businesses looking for that.
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after the ftx blowout, where is crypto? where is the underlying technology going? stick with us.
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>> we have a few billion on our balance sheet. we are profitable. >> i want to be doing something that positive. i want to be a good actor. >> we have raised a few billion dollars over the last couple of years and we are a profitable business. there's $70 million that we put in that i am not sure we have seen again. >> we have not used to the majority of the cash on our balance sheet. we want to be flexible. we want to be in a position where we are looking forward at what we can be doing, where we can be most helpful and where we can grow the most. >> i am excited about our leadership.
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caroline: the ftx cofounder and former ceo sam bankman-fried talking to bloomberg about profitability and growth. from july to september of this year. and then the downfall. the unraveling. when that was perhaps more prophesies by mike alfred, eaglebrook founding member. a man who is deeply working within the world of crypto and also happens to be a value investor. a man who can give us takes as to whether you should be into certain cryptocurrencies. were you concerned about the closeness of alameda and what was happening at ftx? >> i was concerned about a lot of things. there's a couple of big fundamental issues here. one is a lack of corporate governance. ftx basically had no outside investors.
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many other companies had similar setups where because they had so much leverage raising money, nobody could tell them what to do. you do not see blowups like this without tremendous leverage. that will typically be in every situation. the last piece is an overreach for yield. all of these firms are doing these poorly structured arbitrage trades. you look at the spring of 2021, who was in that? celsius. flock five. tara luna was also an arbitrage chain. borrow money to get 20% an anchor. who was in that trade? celsius. ftx blows up and indirectly it is because of the relationship with alameda. alameda lost so much money in that trade, they need to paper over it. that is where sam crossed the
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line. up until that point, it was gambling with the principal's money. once he started gambling with the user's money, that is when things went downhill. caroline: 5 million users and a prolific high-profile celebrities. deep-pocketed venture capitalists have been burnt and are incredibly angry. what next in terms of credibility? you have mentioned the names, luna, voyager, celsius. is there another shoe to drop? are there other people so badly burned there has to be further default? >> there won't be any. those -- we felt the contagion was mostly contained in june and we were wrong. at that time, spf went on your program and said it was over. there's not can be more downside. in retrospect, he was doing that to confirm his own liquidation levels.
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he was not doing it to be jp morgan or save anybody, he literally was just protecting his own ass. i should have realized. who could have more risk in their balance sheet that we know of? by finance. a lot of people want to believe they are a good actor, but they are thinly regulated just like ftx. they don't even have a --. it is hard to hold them accountable for anything. in certain ways they are engaging in certain activities in the back end. that would be the -- that would be the ultimate blowup. caroline: we will go to binance to get their take and to defend themselves. there's an interesting take. that this is decentralization of what is wanting to be decentralized. is there a way you could have centralization other than a
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company that is public and regulated? how do you regulate non-us domiciled companies? is there a way we can bring transparency? the promise of real transparency that so excited many about this space, can we ensure this is happening when you do have deep pockets and a level of hiding behind certain arbitrageurs? >> there's two ways. one, stick with a safe, regulated onshore exchange that holds all the assets. doesn't run a hedge fund in the background like ftx or celsius. or, go to true decentralization and leverage d5 protocols that are using code to these services. unit swab and compound. it needs to be noted that when you look back at what happened during the period where celsius was being liquidated, this protocols did a good job.
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they liquidated counterparties immediately, no questions asked. they didn't care who you were. they didn't call and say, please deliver more. truly decentralized could work at scale and may actually be better in most cases to a centralized option. but in the meantime, using a company like coinbase in the u.s. is one of the safest ways to approach. >> let's talk about what regulation happens. i'm sure there's a lot of sharpening pencils going on at the moment. in many ways, some were seen as the main lobbyist out there. talking may have been his undoing in many ways. when he talks about the relationship that disintegrated. in the clear light of day, in a real traditional finance, you still get blowups. you still have bill hwang. you still have a liquidity issue
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that just happened in the u.k. because of issues with the holdings of bonds and the movement. even in deeply regulated markets you can have these desperate of hairs. how do we make regulation fit for purpose at the moment? >> tough question. if you look at nf global, they went into bankruptcy and it took a little time but none of the users of the platform lost money. same thing with other brokerage platforms and other banks. there are so many protections that it is really hard for an end customer to lose all their money. that sort of regulation may stifle innovation but it also stops casual retail users from losing everything. i would air on the side of being more conservative generally. do not think it makes sense to allow people to lever up 10 x or 20 x. it doesn't make sense to take money on the back end caroline:
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interestingly, the innovation, the money that poured in has been pulled out. it is almost a year exactly since between was at 69000 and today when ftx is unraveling, can you call a bottom in this market? what we need to instill trust back to the relative space of other cryptocurrencies? >> the most important thing once again is that there's not going to be any taxpayer-funded government bailouts. that will give people confidence once it is clear that there is norm dominoes left. in the coming days and weeks as we look at creditors to ftx, which is going to be numerous. block of fires probably going to file for bankruptcy eminently. i have heard they have already hired counsel, which makes sense. i said on twitter that you should pull your money on them because that was an inevitable consequences.
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sometime in q1 or q2 of this year, there's going to be a wonderful generational opportunity to buy bitcoin. i mean bitcoin in cold storage where there is no counterparty endo risk that you lose. bitcoin is a wonderful thing on its own. what we are talking about are the adjacent businesses that took on too much leverage that were often under regulated. they messed up. that happens in wild west environments but bitcoin is still going to make a new block every 10 minutes for the next 500 years. that is what we are betting on. it doesn't matter what happens. caroline: we will hear from the bitcoin maximalist and more. it didn't stash it is interesting we go back to where people feel they can trust. mike alfred, thank you. you will park advisors, founding member. institutional access. -- eaglebrook. i got to speak with a
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traditional finance space. american express ceo just yesterday, talked about the fallout of crypto at the moment and whether or not it could still be an innovative space and whether traditional payment methods could be disrupted. i spoke exclusively with him in new york yesterday. >> we have looked at cryptocurrencies from when they first started to gain traction. we have experiment did with blockchain, we've got investments in blockchain companies. we have a partnership with abril where people earn cryptocurrency rewards. i have been peer -- pretty public that i believe cryptocurrency is an asset class. people like to invest in asset classes and off you go. i do not see it replacing the payment rails. when i think about cryptocurrencies, i put them under the umbrella of digital currencies. you have the cryptocurrencies,
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bitcoin and so forth, and then stablecoins. and then governmental digital currencies as well. there certainly is a play for digital currency in the economy. but it is hard for me to see right now. cryptocurrencies, with the volatility and the limited supply of some of them how it really replaces traditional payment methods. the one thing with traditional payment methods, they are not broken. they warp. we will see. having said that, never say never. that is why we stay engaged, we listen to people. there's a lot of people with different perspectives that i have and they may be smarter. when i think about the business that american express is in, we are a lifestyle brand that
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brings people experiences and access and combines a payment facility with that. the horses we have now are working for us. caroline: coming up, a wild week for investors. consumers in the week ahead could be busy too.
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♪ caroline: may be we get a bit of calm in the week ahead? let's have a look. what is on the agenda? there might be headlines we are not expecting. there could be fireworks when it comes to the -- trial monday. we are digging into the key earnings of large mega brands such as walmart. we get a check on whether retail and consumer or shopping online
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digital spend going at the moment. in video front and center when we think of u.s.-china relations. and whether we are in some sort of megacycle once again. brian chesky is going to be joining bloomberg thursday. tune into that. and then back to the courts friday. elizabeth holmes, the sentencing. you do not want to be missing that. so much more coming to bloomberg. i am pleased to say monday we are having one of ftx's investors. just how painful has that trade been? what does he think of the future? check out our podcast on apple, and spotify. have a good weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: we just don't know about the u.s. elections, inflation and cryptocurrency. this is bloomberg wall


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