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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  November 16, 2022 6:00pm-8:00pm EST

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>> this is daybreak asia coming to you live from singapore for the new economy forum. we are counting down to asia's market open. >> the fed emphasizes the need for rate hikes. >> sam bankman-fried admits making a mistake as its contagion spreads across the crypto industry. >> we are live in bangkok. >> we have the open of the asx 200. futures actually turned positive in the last few minutes. the lead in from wall street not a great one. a signal to investors that the
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economy can still withstand more rate hikes. san francisco fed president indicating perhaps more moderation in the size of hikes, but a pause is off the table. 10 year treasuries in australia also tracking those moves that we did have an treasuries. the start here for asx 200, a fourth day of losses. let's change now because we are a couple of hours into trading for stocks in new zealand. a bit more positivity coming into the session. the tech heavy nasdaq one of the
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biggest losers in the last session. >> that supply and demand question, how do we achieve a soft landing? what does it mean in terms of commodities, in terms of soft commodities, food security, not to mention the geopolitical concerns. the ongoing war in ukraine continuing to dominate. we heard from president zelenskyy at 4:00 p.m. today. >> what is interesting and the conversation about food security is people are expecting lower food prices because they see
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demand disruption. the higher prices go up, the more people will not be able to afford buying more things. those concerns we are hearing from j.p. morgan, mild contraction at least in the u.s. and how that will cut a one million jobs as well. that is top of mind at the new economy forum. >> we get into more and more waves of layoffs. let's get to our crypto reporter . the optionality question. the markets continue to scramble. are we hearing from fred holcomb waller? >> the fed cannot raise rates for ever. the question is how high will
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they have to go? they can see that is the place to go. chris waller matter so much. one of the first to say we have to start hiking rates. when he says he is getting more comfortable with the 50 base rate hike in december, we set up and listen. he says rates will continue to rise well into next year. that he needs to see more data. they will be another jobs and inflation report before the december 16 meeting, so the jury is still out. in terms of retail sales, fed officials are talking about we can start to go a little bit slower. when they stop a surprisingly strong number for retail sales in october and they were flat the number -- the month before.
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gasoline prices didn't help make this number even higher. -- david help -- did help make this number even higher. ester george speaking to the wall street journal says she is seen the growing risk of inflation getting entrenched. they will possibly have to get much more aggressive she says. she says carbon -- curbing response inflation. >> it seems that ucb may also be slowing down when it comes to
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rate hikes. >> the last meeting, they did the aggressive move. and then they get an inflation report showing 10.7% year-over-year. it is the highest number on record. they are watching the impact of the war in ukraine. there rating for the price of gas getting higher and higher. some economists are saying maybe they are taking a look at what the fed is saying. this is according to sources close to the ecb's current discussions. they are also saying the subtle difference here is the hawks on the ecb are not starting to push back. >> what is the latest when it
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comes to sam bankman-fried? we saw him tweeting about his carelessness. >> even though he has stepped down as the ceo of ftx, he has been pretty active on social media. the latest from today, he said he was overconfident and careless and he had the wrong number for the leverage level and he still thinks there is a chance for him to turn things around if he is able to raise funding within the next few days or two weeks. we need to highlight that ftx put out a tweet saying that sam no longer represents the company since he is the former ceo. there are differences between the founder and the management of the company now. >> there is a little bit more
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optimism that perhaps this could be contained. >> today we actually some more contagion impact from the fallout. one of the biggest crypto lenders, genesis, announce they will suspend redemption of loans for their lending business. this is one of the earliest wonders in the industry. -- lenders in the industry. in terms of the retail impact, we saw that gemini announced one of their products will also delay the withdrawal of redemptions because of the impact from genesis, which is their key partner for the program. this means retail investor verse -- investors will be unable to
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withdraw their crypto at the moment. meanwhile, we know that blockfi is also filing bankruptcy. we cannot forget that crypto minors have long been in distress as well. we expect to see more contagion impact. >> in terms of what broader markets are doing, is that still trading on the expectation that the fed will slow and that will be followed quickly by prevent? -- two -- pivot? >> the fed president who was saying you have never really
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seen a slowdown in inflation without recession. can you get a slow down in inflation without there being a recession? australia has jobs numbers out today. that is going to be a key input for whether they can stick with 25 basis hikes or if it will face pressure to go back to 50 basis point hikes. handed overall markets is the specter of the u.s. yield curve. that crashed by a sizable amount overnight. that is the level you have not seen since the 1980's, when the fed created a recession in order to get inflation under control. so we have been concerned.
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along with those strong retail sales, you had target reporting the latest bit of soft earnings data from a major u.s. company. there are plenty of signs that under the surface that resilience in the u.s. economy is starting to show some potential. the question is does the fed and upbringing that resilience question down or does it drain it slowly so that you can get that soft landing? you can get europe, asia, australia, that is the question on the minds of everybody. >> there could be more opportunities in bonds. let's get to vonnie quinn. >> thank you.
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the leaders of nato and poland said there was no indication a missile that struck polish territory was an intentional attack. it is likely the explosion was caused by ukrainian air defense missile, but still places that claim on russia. chinese president xi jinping confronted justin trudeau at the g20 summit, accusing of licking details of a private meeting. she spoke throughout translator, appear to reprimand justin trudeau. she raised serious concerns over allegations of chinese interference in canada's domestic affairs. energy bills drove inflation
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which caused the u.k. to act. the pboc says the risk of inflation is rising in china because of changes in overall demand. the central banks monetary policy report includes a promise to keep liquidity ample. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> this is the final day of the new economy forum. we will get insights from business leaders and economic experts.
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miller will be joining us live -- leland miller will be joining us live. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have seen u.s. stocks declining. treasuries again see in a little bit depth upside. bonds could be the next place where we could see more diversifying. >> we saw the big move in the two-year and the three year. equity investors trying to recalculate where the fed will go to next. with us now is frank benzimra
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from societe generale. is that the view you are holding at the moment, that which -- with each bit the fed speak that we are getting closer to a slow down and a pause in rates? >> where we stand currently is that we are probably halfway through some fed pivoting. we probably have seen the peak of the long-term rates, what we see is to see some earnings recession with the current level of earnings probably being too high. so that is why we think we think
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global bonds will continue to outperform. >> where are you at when it comes to the chinese equity rally? we have seen a huge ramp up. has anything changed this week that would make you more optimistic that there is legs to this rally? >> what we are seeing is this incredibly low evaluation of the offshore market, so we are now seeing this kind of technical rebound and a number of measures to stabilize the economy. if we see that, whether the
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[indiscernible] i think this is one of the questions investors should ask themselves in the context where there has not been any stimulus package for the housing market. it is more measure to stabilize the market. the demographics are not playing in favor of that market. so i think beyond this short-term rebound, the question of what allocation we should have in a global portfolio needs to be raised. >> and the broader develop and
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market space come out here at the new economy forum, i am hearing more optimistic sentiment. where are we headed in these stocks and where do you see opportunities? >> there was a view that the dollar index is a key allocation tool. the second element is we are seeing emerging markets being
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ahead of the fed, whether it is in asia or other parts. when it comes to equity, the huge outflow out of emerging next china going into china, whether we can see some flow going back into emerging equity and this is one of our bases for it. we are going to look at some of the value market. korea is one of them. >> does the earnings recession
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narrative applied to some of these economies as well? we have seen significant pressure on the semiconductor side of things. >> imagine korea because i found it very interesting market. we had some very steep earnings downgrade in that market. the down cycle we have seen has come from korean companies. now it is possible that we could be six or eight months away from a bottom in the semiconductor cycle. that could be a timeline the market will start to reposition
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on an equity market which is extremely lonely valued at the moment. >> arriving there -- a reminder to our viewers that korea trades in our later today. -- an hour later today. >> is green inflation a longer-term structural pressure when it comes to prices? >> it is a long term subject. it is not only about some specific based rising. what we find quite interesting is that there is a very big cap story.
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we are seeing this balance in the long-term. we find that through the equity market, there are some ways to gain exposure to this imbalance that we do not necessarily have when it comes to [indiscernible] this will be with us from the decade. we are going to see at some stage, inflation receding, but we have some strong element of green inflation. >> good to have you with us.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! [golf ball bounces off rover] unbelievable. ugh. [ding]
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>> this is the final day of the bloomberg new economy forum. from geopolitics to the meltdown in crypto. and the looming risks of a global recession. >> do not miss the conversations at the final day of the new economy forum, including the china beige book international ceo, leland miller
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>> majority of g20 nations have condemned russia's war in ukraine. some are now headed to bangkok for the apac meeting.
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>> stephen engle is there. g20 was not short of news. what are that it expectations when we get to apac? >> the same issues are going to be discussed here. you have the new economy forum there in singapore and now apac. maybe a chance to start delving deeper about some of the big issues facing some of these asian economies. 14 heads of state will be here. maybe it will not be as distracted as we saw in bali
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where the war in ukraine was a focus. we move on now to bangkok, where president she -- she shipping will be the most influential head of state here. joe biden not be here. she as well as the chinese delegation did sign on to the g20 communique that condemned the war in ukraine. so lots to discuss. i imagine high inflation, high food prices will be at the
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center of discussions here. >> you mentioned the g20 joint communique, but not everybody was on the same page when it came to how they want to deal with russia. what is the sense you are getting on the ground right now? >> they did sign the communique. by the time it came out, vladimir putin's representative had already left bali. some had even said this was the g 19, but here at apac, i know it will be at the back of everybody's minds. antony blinken is here. he will give a press conference, along with the u.s. trade representative. so geopolitics will definitely
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be part of the discussion. i would imagine many of the discussions will focus primarily on the effects of the war in ukraine rather than what ended up being at g20, the were overshadowing much of the discussion. >> stephen engle bear, joining us from bangkok. we have breaking news at the moment. we have the final results when it comes to control of the house. republicans have won it with the slim margin. democrats maintained the senate control last week after the midterm elections. president trump who is now announced his candidacy was blamed because of the poor showing by the gop.
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but now we know the republicans have won control of the u.s. house, with a very slim margin. >> we saw president biden and xi jinping taking steps to avoid a clash with the two nations. with us now is leland miller, ceo at china beige book international. stabilization does not equal normalization. but just the de-escalation of tensions change your outlook when it comes to future chinese growth? >> not really, because i do not think we set a floor to where tensions can go going forward. it is great the leaders were able to meet. if you look into next year,
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there is a lot of things that can get tricky. there are dynamics in congress that may irritate tensions. there are some export controls. you have a u.s. presidential election in 2024. it is great for now. >> let me flip the question. did the easing of geopolitical tensions, especially the openings -- the openness of president xi, from a weakness in the chinese economy? >> i think xi jinping would just as soon focus on his domestic issues and not have to deal with headaches coming from the united states and elsewhere. the problems in the domestic economy are considerable. he will have to navigate those going forward.
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>> we should address the property sector. the demand side in terms of whether the global economy will continue to slow. also the financial stability aspect. >> i am less worried about the financial stability aspect. not that this is the great use of resources. when china needs to come up they can move capital from one side to the other. it means you are less likely to have an acute crisis. it means overtime, you have stagnation of growth because you are constantly putting good money after bad. >> we heard from the vice
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president and he insisted that he wanted to continue opening up the chinese economy. we have seen global banks starting to cut china because they are not think that on the ground. >> for some companies in some sectors, they will probably do well, but if you look at the china story, it has been a disappointment for years. if you look at the political environment there, it does not look appetizing for foreign firms. in the short term, you had covid zero and bat chased -- and bat chased companies out. >> there has been some loosening when it comes to the restrictions.
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is that some sign that we could see a better landscape next year? >> the big issue is when covid zero gets pulled back. this is a long process. you are seeing some easing of the covid restrictions, but can that be maintained through the winter when cases will skyrocket? the problem here is nobody knows. i do not think the leadership in beijing knows. very large chance that we see some sort of reversal and go back into lockdown spirit -- letdowns. obviously it is a particular issue during covid zero. the most important take away we had have bad -- is that as long as covid zero is there, they will not higher or most -- invest.
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covid zero has to be gone. this is a long process so when it happens there will probably be a bounceback, but it could be farther off than people think. >> the party congress we just had, what signals did you get about the economy? what will they mean when it comes to investments and potential opportunities and risks for the economy? >> the message was the says xi jinping's show. when they look at 2022, a lot of people are saying she is ready
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to do a big perfect back to the old ways, but there is no evidence that he has done wrong on this so we will see a continuation of policies. >> is it easier for foreign investors to gauge what the parties are? -- priorities are? >> it is pretty clear where the lines are. >> i would agree, except what i am seeing right now is a huge debate about what is actually happening here. a lot of people in the markets are calling what is happening in property a game changer. it is not a game changer. it is putting the floor on some of the problems, but it is not a game changer. you have questions over is this
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the end of covid zero? people should be more of one mind but opinions are everywhere. >> it is hard to see that there is going to be every coupling -- be a rate coupling. >> from the chinese perspective, basing this. export controls have started. we are going in that direction. there is not going to be of reversal. there is going to be a chinese interpretation of that, which is the u.s. is trying to keep us down and we will have to do our own thing. it is probably unavoidable at this point. it is a strategic decision for the united states. do you allow china the inputs to
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defeat it or do you cut it off now? this debate has been raging for a long time. >> it is that this -- it is a strategic decision. this is a huge economy and a huge opportunity. for me where you sit, is the risk or reward bigger? >> i think the risks are rising so dramatically that if you are going into china, the traditional way of viewing of china business was we will move in and listen to the government. it is a lot tougher on the ground right now. people have to have a and good insights because the downsides have increased dramatically. >> the problem is there is no
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ready market elsewhere to replace the role of china. where would you be making money in china, assuming we have an exit from covid zero? >> the key is to look at what the government wants. obviously, there is a big question about the financial service industry. it will all these assets going to financial products and that will be a big opportunity. certainly that is what wall street thinks. you have a demographic problem. so, elderly care, anything related to child birth will be subsidized. green technology. there are areas which the government will want to support, subsidize.
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you probably could make a lot of money in there if you do the right things but you have to be careful because it is not an easy environment to be in. >> we have much more ahead from the bloomberg new economy forum, the final day of the conference. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> you are watching daybreak asia. we are seeing japan futures shaping up for a weaker start. we also have new zealand and australia trading online to the green. i should also mention korea trading will be delayed by one hour. we are what if i minutes into trading for u.s. futures. they are pointing higher. we saw both of those dropping given that we had weaker than expected retail sales. criswell waller saying perhaps some moderation, but still 50
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basis points is still what he sees ahead. and mary daly saying any sort of pause is off the table for now. also, earnings as well. >> let's take a deeper dive into those earnings reports. a bit of a mixed picture. >> everyone is listening to what nvidia is having to say. and they seem an end to the slump? have they set enough to put enough green on the screen? ships had been down -- chips had
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been down and but nvidia said really reversed it. what you see with nvidia is it enjoyed a wild ride higher during the pandemic. it has been under a lot of pressure of late however. the data center fueled sales jumping some 31% which appears with a 50% drop for the company's gaming business. it is divided up now more toward ai. the drop has a lot to do with nvidia announcing that it was purposely lowering shipments because they once device makers
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to use the inventory they already have. the biggest part of the story was the restrictions the u.s. has put on their china exports. that has hurt the company's outlook. before where they thought they would take a hit on these ai chips, they are now being offset by the sales of other ships -- chips in china. they said the outlook for 2023 has indeed worsened. the companies year on year supply will need to shrink. supply growth will have to be significantly lower. they are making apps to produce
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-- reduce production. the ceo said they are taking aggressive steps to limit the size of its inventory. that is an industrywide situation. they forecast that quarterly sales were almost $2 billion below wall street estimates. so that is a disappointment. it pushed a lot of the shares down in the regular trading session in the u.s.. after hours, you see green on a lot of the chipmakers. very interesting to see which story prevails. >> we do have breaking news out of japan. we are seeing exports year on year growing for the month of october. 25.3%, which is a much smaller amount of what was expected.
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so continuing to surge 53 point 3%, much higher than expected and much higher than the previous month, which leaves a trade deficit of 2.1 6 trillion for the month of october. really not surprising given the rising energy prices. >> this comes on the back of the gdp number being weaker as well. lots more to come here on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a quick check of the latest headlines. tencent is handing out beach chairs as a special dividend. it is another move towards becoming a more focused operator. it says it is confident of winning approval to release its next major games soon. >> elon musk and twitter are heading down a risky path by
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fire and half of the social networks employees. tiktok is working on solutions to address u.s. security concerns over user data. >> we are going to move the data we store into oracle infrastructure. we are going to have new and improved data absence protocols such that only an entity of u.s. residents both have access. >> softbank is looking to reduce its holdings in ptm. --paytm. >> these are the stocks that we
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will be watching when trade opens in japan. we are watching tokyo electron, and some co-. -- some co-corporation. >> coming up, oliver baete joins us live for the global outlook on the insurance sector. the open market in tokyo is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is daybreak asia coming to you live from the final day of the new economy forum. we have a packed day ahead. this includes a conversation with the ukraine president zelenskyy after we have seen some of those geopolitical tensions over the explosion in poland come down a little bit. >> sent saying he made a mistake. -- sam bankman-fried saying he made a mistake. >> we have the open of japan with us this morning. korea delayed by one hour because people have college
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entrance exams. the nikkei is trading down at the start. also watching what is happening in the yen. we will continue to see it stay around 137 for the rest of november. a lot of anticipate station -- anticipation about where the fed will be going care. a bit of a wait and see mode. we saw wall street session decline. that also played out in what we had in treasury yields. inverting even further. levels we have not seen since the early 1980's. what is driving that is fed moves. they will stay pretty aggressive. a pause as well off the people. let's take a look at what is happening in australia this morning.
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we are one hour into trading. so trading higher, as this morning. -- as is new zealand this morning. >> our next guest is suresh tantia from credit suisse. thanks for being with us. you are seeing despite the fact that investors continue to trade on a hope and a prayer, what do you think there is more downside to come? >> absolutely. it is based on hopes that the fed will pause and inflation will come down.
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we are not going to see it inflation coming down to 2% anytime soon. that will mean the fed will still hike rates in the first quarter of next year and that is not good. >> we have seen that china is the alternative. would that change your allocations if we see an exit out of covid zero? >> yes, if china decides to exit out of covid zero, it would change our view. at the current level, china will stick to its covid zero policy.
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we have not seen any further stimulus measures been announced by authorities. you have the zero covid policy approach and no further stimulus. we think it is quite likely the market goes down. >> we have seen that if we do see a recession we are actually seeing bonds as a diversifier. where do you stand? >> definitely compared to the equity market, bonds look more attractive. we think going forward in the next few months, they should start building their bond preferably oh. if you look at investment grade bonds, and now there close to 5.5%. which you have not seen in the
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last few years. some are now more than 9%. the bond market looks more attractive compared to the equity market. >> how much are you factoring in geopolitical tensions around ukraine and between the u.s.-china? >> it seems like tensions are die linke back. we have seen that in the commodity prices. even what has happened in the last 24 hours, we have seen the market take back all those losses. i do not think geopolitical tension is something pricing in the market. definitely something to keep an
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eye on. chips are coming under pressure because of the sanctions coming out of china. >> when you take a look at 2023, [indiscernible] rather than having strong convictions, could we just see more than the same? >> i think in the first quarter, you will see the ripple effect of what has happened in the market over the last here. as i mentioned, we expect u.s. rates to go up to 5% in the first quarter. we could see volatility in the
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market in the first quarter of next year or the second quarter of next year. i think the game is not over. >> you have touched on the emerging markets space. what do you think of the broader narrative that perhaps we could see the biggest opportunities there next year given they have been more resilient to the geopolitical crisis. >> [indiscernible] one will be the reopening in china and second will be what happens with the u.s. dollar. i do not think the dollar is going to we can from here.
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-- weaken from here. when it comes to china reopening, i think it will be a slow process. we expect reopening to take place. it will take some time for the economy to recover and that will not support equities in the short term. for the next six months, we will still see more downside. >> great to have you with us. we had some more narratives from nvidia and micron. >> we are seeing stocks moving to the downside.
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it really was two different tales that came out of micron. on the one here saying they have a week outlook for the year. there also looking to reduce production. on the other cycle my you have nvidia and they beat on their forecast. the data center helped offset the sluggish demand for video games. let's take a look at another sector that is moving this morning. these are some of the names that are linked to nickel. moving as much as 12%. then liquidity there that exacerbated fears against supply conditions. >> we will be watching what the
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commodities space it does for the inflationary pressures we have seen because that has been top of mind at the new economy forum. on this final day, we have conversations on the end of easing money. i am curious to hear what will happen in the change of the labor market. >> so many different policy changes and challenges that we have to deal with. all of that will be looked at. >> what came through is a sobering tone from the speakers here. higher inflation. there is more pain to come. the markets have been hurt, but it will get even worse. valuations have come down a lot, but they are coming down even more.
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there have been structural changes and therein lies the opportunities. there opportunities, but we have to look hard for them. it is a very delicate situation right now. >> it was interesting to hear from the delegates that everybody has seen to have changed their minds about inflation being transitory. i know you have had conversations on the digital frontier. >> to your point, as much as we think inflation is already at its peak, it is about to get worse. going from fossil fuels to clean energy will raise prices even more, even if it is in the short-term.
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as we look to a new economy, the challenges ahead need to be worked out. >> the big stories are jostling to be front and center. so interesting to be coming from an influential but small state like singapore. >> i year ago, we talked about how geopolitics were front and center. if you take the conversations forward, there are other challenges. we are talking about the great resignation, the family quitters. how do you get workers back to the table? work has changed.
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new economy, old economy, the challenges keep piling on. >> we're hearing from president zelenskyy as well. >> it will be interesting to see his take on of how the war is going nine months on. >> the real pain is when we have to say goodbye. that is today, the third and final day. >> the leaders of nato and poland said there was no indication a missile that struck polish territory was intentional. it killed two people. nato says it is likely it was caused by ukrainian air defense missile. it still places the blame on moscow. >> this is not ukraine's fall.
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russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against ukraine. >> energy bills drove u.k. inflation to a 41 year high in october. the consumer price index rose to 11.1% from a year ago. the result increases the chances the central bank will increase again next month. the pboc says the risk of inflation is rising in china because of changes in overall demand. the central banks process to keep liquidity reasonably ample. the u.k. has made a final order blocking the chinese take over of microchip factor, setting a
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national security risk. next. was forced to sell its stake in the deal. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> we are here in singapore for the final day of the new economy forum. up next, we will talk with oliver baete. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a majority of g20 nations have condemned russia's war in ukraine. some are now headed to the apac meeting where geopolitical tensions may take center stage again. steve, what are you looking out for? >> i was one of those individuals who flew in late yesterday from bali to bangkok. i was wondering how apac would differentiate the narrative that has been repeating itself.
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i just looked at the front page of the newspaper and you can see the main issue at least domestically here are the bank goals for sustainability and climate change and waste management. a number of more eco-topics that bangkok wants to push. so that could overshadow what we saw obviously i g20, which the communique condemning the war in ukraine and obviously the disruptions that the war in ukraine is helping exacerbate the inflation around the world. those are still going to be top issues. energy inflation, food inflation, the food crisis. it is all going to be there, but i feel one number of representatives here, there are going to be 14 heads of state,
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they are also going to be talking about some of these issues the host nation wants to push. if you look at the newspaper as an example, think g20 communique do not appear in the newspaper until page four. the explosion in poland was in pick six. -- on page six. >> what did not make the front page but went viral on social media was the interaction between the leaders of china and canada. >> that will be interesting because both xi jinping and justin trudeau will be here for the apac gathering. this is the business ceo summit
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today. they will undoubtedly see each other again. this is our relationship that has been souring over the last few years, beginning with canada's arrest. and the subsequent arrest of the two michael's in canada, who have since been released. but this relationship has festered. they have not met face-to-face because of the pandemic for three years. this was a fascinating interaction and a bit ironic as well because xi jinping was complaining that justin trudeau did not follow proper protocols in leaking some of their private dialogue the day before to canadian media. he chastised justin trudeau for
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doing that. a bit of a threat some would say. justin trudeau did stand up for canada's right to question certain things and that they will have disagreements. we will see how this plays out over the next couple of days in bangkok. >> stephen engle there joining us from bangkok. let's take a look at two upcoming policy decisions. our reporter has a preview. we continue to see the emphasis on optionality for the fed. also, the ecb looking like it could slow down the pace. how does that impact the necessity for how asia moves? >> it is tricky timing now because the pressures have been less in asia.
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these two economies have been reluctant hikers. now they are see their currencies being pummeled and they are trying to shore up those currencies. we are expecting to see hikes today. indonesia has talked about being frontloaded. the rupee up is the worst performer. they have already talked about matching the fed. even before the fed decided, they said we will match the fed. >> it is interesting being here to see how the narrative has shifted from just a year ago when we were still debating whether inflation was transitory. now it seems to be about inflation being structural, at
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the decades of steady prices are gone. >> and food security a big part of that. you had a panel yesterday about food security experts. the war in ukraine looming over everything. that is something we will have to watch. those being less structural forces. still an open question. what does inflation look like. all things central bankers will be watching. >> the infamous transitory rhetoric. the cardinal ceo was telling us he does expect lower prices. he was a bit more optimistic for the year ahead. good to see you in person.
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we have more conversations coming up at the new economy forum. ukrainian president zelenskyy will speak. >> what a time to hear from him. we will also be speaking to many other business leaders and influential people as well. so much more to come here from the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. this is bloomberg. ♪ as americans, there's one thing we can all agree on. the promise of our constitution and the hope that liberty and justice is for all people. but here's the truth. attacks on our constitutional rights, yours and mine are greater than they've ever been. the right for all to vote. reproductive rights. the rights of immigrant families.
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to show you're a part of the movement to protect the rights guaranteed to all of us by the us constitution. we protect everyone's rights, the freedom of religion, the freedom of expression, racial justice, lgbtq rights, the rights of the disabled. we are here for everyone. it is more important than ever to take a stand. so please join us today. because we the people means all the people, including you. so call now or go online to my to become a guardian of liberty. >> here is a quick check of the latest headlines. softbank is looking to reduce its holdings in paytm.
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the stock has plummeted since its ipo last year. softbank is one of the biggest shareholders. >> tencent is handing out because shares as a special dividend after reporting a second straight revenue decline. coming up next, we will be speaking with the allianz se ceo, oliver baete. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have breaking news out of
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singapore. the latest october trade numbers. this is a contraction of three point 7%, bigger than what economists expected. another month of contraction following september and in singapore, this is troublesome. iran year is contracted greater than expected and electronic exports plunged 9.3% year on year. global demand and export demand are starting to fall and that is affecting the trade numbers from singapore. haidi: korea and singapore have open economies, canaries in the coal mine in terms of global growth pressures. australia job numbers coming through. resilient job markets have
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stymied policymakers efforts to bring inflation under control. unemployment, 32 thousand jobs added to the economy. more than double expected. this is volatile data. less then what it has been. unemployment rate a little lower, 3.4%. expectations were for it to hold at 3.5% for october. australian wages also jumped the most in a decade. it does not paint the picture of an economy that is feeling the impact of tightening rates yet. >> in terms of market reaction we see so far, a move in bond yields telling us that traders are still seeing the rba stick
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with the pace of rake heights in the -- rate hikes in the months ahead. westpac would have to see a notable surprise on the weak side for that to ramp up so this is a market that is pretty much trading with move-in yields and asx 200 moving higher. let's look at the broader market outlook today. japan in the red at the start of trade. new zealand's holding onto gains. we are not seeing korea because trading starts in 30 minutes. shery: let's get to vonnie quinn. >> ftx and some celebrity backers are being sued by investors for a class-action.
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in a complete -- complaint, they allege the crib so -- the crypto chain targeted people using celebrities. and moderating interest rates to 50 basis points next month and hiking will stay until 2023. christopher waller said he is open to a sequence of half point increases and the final decision depends on data. >> looking forward to the december meeting, data the last few weeks has been more comfortable, considering stepping down to a 50 basis point hike. >> a successful launch for the
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orion. it blasted off from kennedy space center after two months of delays. it will come close to the lunar surface next week and then return to earth on december 11. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. on vonnie quinn. -- i am vonnie quinn. haidi: -- shery: we continue to watch the uncertainties around the world. geopolitical issues, recession, inflation. alliance is joining us via their ceo. good to have you with us. good to see you in person. you have -- why is so conservative?
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are the current macro conditions a concern? >> we tend to be conservative and we had a really good run this year but the last quarter is not over. things can happen last minute. overall we are very comfort -- confident to reach in the outlook. markets have been good. we have been resilient. very few things are resilient in this environment so it is good to be where we are. shery: they share buyback was big. >> german stocks have been hit by american investors pulling back in light of the war in ukraine on potential energy crisis in europe. german stocks have been oversold and our shares have traded down like many premium companies in
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germany so investing in our stock at this point was the most profitable for our shareholders but over time we would love to invest more in asia. for us it is important for people to understand interest rates are good for financial institutions and particularly for us and our life insurance clients because investment income will go up significantly over time. haidi: the german economy is facing an inflection point. what are your views on the potential deindustrialization and what the effect will be from the energy crisis. >> short-term we have to manage the crisis carefully. i am an optimist a look on the bright side. look at the fact that we are just launching our first lng terminal, which was originally
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projected to open only after two years and it has been a little over one year. so we are very happy with progress but it will take time to rewire the energy infrastructure and germany is dependent on stable energy. on the other hand we will not see deindustrialization and germany. the opposite. a few years ago this wistful -- the swiss franc traded up. everyone thought switzerland would de-industrialize and the opposite happened. shery: so you see companies moving in? >> it's not about that. it's that it spurs innovation. we might not be able to produce the base chemical and germany but we have amazing companies of all size that will use the opportunity of the energy
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transition to reinvent our business. shery: you mention opportunities in asia. that china is implementing plans for a private system. is that interesting to you? >> absolutely. i am quoting a chinese friend. germany is one of the most efficient pension systems in the world so if we have proper market access and access to contribution, we would love to create that system in china. haidi: germany is also one of the oldest trade partners with china. do you have views on the new consolidation of leadership and market opportunities? >> yes. the jury is out. we have been long-term friends of china and we want to stay that way. geopolitics will be more complicated but like our hosts, singapore, we do not want to have to choose between two friends.
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shery: you received regulatory approval to become the first wholly foreign owned life insurance company. >> we just need to do what we said we would do, add a high quality distribution and bring good products to that end consumer. it is that simple. it is hard to do because the industry is very competitive. the top chinese local firms command more than 80% of the profits. it is a consolidated industry so it is not easy but it is also a huge market. the timeline is forever. just kidding. [laughter] it is really just starting. shery: we have seen a lot of pressure around the global markets, market volatility. interested in doing more wealth management? in china as a chinese wealth
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subsidiary? >> in the past there were requirements for everything and partners made the decisions largely by themselves and they do not do well with joint ventures. as for us, leverage is important to fully operate independently but it's up for them to decide. i think asset management in general including for our investors will be a huge opportunity because china needs to diversify overseas investments and good advice on how to invest in europe or credit markets would be an important subject for china. so i think we can add value to that. haidi: the asset management arm
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has been closed in the u.s. what does it say to the commitment to that market and what are the plans? >> we are strongly committed. we head an expense of 4.5 billion euros after-tax. most money has been going to investor climates because we wanted to make sure whatever happens when you are our client, we take care of you. every investor has received at least the principal back. when you are our client, we protect and compensate you. the fine everyone talks to the doj was $167 million so the doj has acknowledged we have been taking care of our clients and i am proud of that. we have created a partnership where we integrated our business and own 24% of foia and the distribution is outside of the
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united states. shery: oliver, a great conversation to be had and what is your next biggest concerns of the year ahead, inflation or recession? >> both. shery: you cannot say both. [laughter] >> they are both a concern. short-term, inflation. especially in europe. in the u.s., rates have been trading up and with the proper investment products you can actually earn more than what current inflation is. it's not possible in europe at the moment because we have financial repression. rates are far below inflation rates. so we've been taken for a ride for the last decade because it is important to understand it benefits people who have a lot of debt.
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savers are being disenfranchised and that will continue because governments have an interest in reducing debt levels. protecting clients mean we need to be able to provide them with access to investment products that balance inflation risk. so assets in any form because fixed income in europe, you will lose money the next three years unless you are with us. so that is very important. the second thing, we are going to go into a recession. i can tell -- i cannot tell you how much it will affect us because we still have strong job markets so if we get into eight negative spiral, increasing wages by too much will drive prices up further, it would be hard to get that under control. unlike in the u.s. where i think you are making late but good progress in fighting inflation. haidi: oliver, it is such a great pleasure. good conversation.
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more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: watching shares of
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tencent at the opening, a recap of earnings. a positive reaction in adr results. is this because of the possible gaining pipeline? >> it came down to the gaming pipeline and also better than expected online ad. interesting when you stack it up against alphabet that had struggled in the sector in previous earnings but value-added services, fintech, cloud revenue, they all missed rest -- they all missed estimates. sales contraction has to be put in context. last quarter was the first contraction we had for the company since they went public in 2004 so revenue dropped more than expected but still net income beating estimates. a move higher for tencent in the u.s. session. we will watch it for hong kong. two things stood out.
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tencent announced they will drop nearly their entire stake in an online food and delivery giant in china. it has also sold off holdings so we see a reduction and tencent moving to reduce headcount is something we have seen across the tech space. shery: we have breaking news, annabelle, thanks for the report. new local covid cases for wednesday. over 8000. certainly dispatched -- dissatisfaction is growing. haidi: definitely a pressure
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point in the covid to zero strategy. shery: alibaba is eat commerce -- e-commerce margins have been adjusted. haidi: earnings out of china attack -- china tech. we have just been through singles' day. indications of merger pressure -- margin pressure. >> for alibaba, everyone will watch the magnitude of cost cuts. from the results we have seen from tencent overnight, expectations are low for topline growth. as far as the cost structure of the company and whether it is sustainable through this year and into next amidst uncertainties and overhang we
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have on covid in china. shery: what can we expect in terms of share repurchases? >> tencent redistributing mates one shares as special dividends it's a highlight that analysts will wait to see if alibaba will up the repurchase program to match up in terms of returns to shareholders. i think to date they have repurchased or utilized more than 10% of the 25 billion share purchase program itself and to match up with tencent share buybacks we have seen through october, already a record high, alibaba might have to increase the package higher.
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we will see what happens tonight. haidi: will they disclose more on the singles' day performance? they have not revealed data from the event in the last 14 years. >> they might give more color but i doubt we will see an actual number come from the company in terms of gmc and at this point i would like to highlight that the company redefined that gmv based on official disclosure. some were in line with last year's expectations but in prior years they included all platforms in the echo system so -- ecosystem so we are not comparing apple for apple but we will see if we get more color tonight.
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haidi: more to come here on daybreak asia as we are on the third and final day of bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> short-term you have covid zero which chased out some firms but if you are looking at if you can succeed in china as a foreign economy, i think the answer is getting tougher and tougher. shery: leland miller on the challenges of operating in china . those markets open in just over 30 minutes. david joins us from hong kong. let's start with tencent shares. will they follow the u.s. trading higher? david: they closed higher so we will probably see tencent move higher on the back of what they announced. what will happen to bache one? it will probably follow a lot.
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december 23 last year they announced the corporate action and they closed 7% lower. in 30 minutes we will talk with bank of america when he will. she thinks -- winnie wu. she thinks these stocks will lead the rally higher. haidi: we have seen a big selloff in government bonds. is this a redemption story? david: it is. we have seen outflows continuously. it is also a repricing story. the bulk of the move, we are up 20 basis points. we reached at one point
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yesterday 280 five, testing the highs of the year alone. i think securities said this is markets repricing at a function of a better outlook for the economy so we will watch this closely in a few minutes when the market opens up. shery: david ingalls -- haidi: david ingalls in hong kong. we are watching the panel discussion underway in singapore on this last day of the forum. managing expectations about the meeting. shery: especially as he said he is optimistic for the next year but perhaps not the next decade. this is bloomberg. ♪
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