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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  November 28, 2022 1:30pm-2:00pm EST

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mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. in buffalo, new york, the white gunman that killed 10 black shoppers and employees at a supermarket in may has pleaded guilty. a plea means that he will spend the rest of his life in prison. he will be formally sentenced in february. >> the surviving victims and deceased victim family members will have an opportunity to address the court. the community, and our client directly. it is our hope that a final resolution of the state charges will help in some small way to keep the focus on the needs of the victims and the community.
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mark: he still faces several hate crimes charges. in houston, schools are closed today and residence have been warned not to drink tap water without boiling it first. that is because power outages have shut water treatment plants. office to resettle tenants the problem will not affect fire suppression and air conditioning systems. acellena prices in the united states have now fallen to their lowest since february. that was before russia invaded ukraine. according to auto club aaa, the average national pump price stands at about $3.54 per gallon. this came after continued soft demand and growing supply. in china, protests against the government covid measures failed to materialize after a weekend of demonstrations. a few dozen protesters gathered in hong kong, but on the mainland, there was a heavy police presence in large cities.
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one veteran emerging-market expected a strong response from president xi jinping. >> it is clear to me that he cannot tolerate any protests, so there will be a very tough crackdown on any protesters. more people will be arrested. they will probably go further, in terms of control. mark: the demonstrations against communist party policies on markdowns are seen as a direct challenge to president xi jinping. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. >> welcome to bloomberg markets.
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kriti: let's dive right into price markets. the protests you are seeing are really taking the lead abroad. that is hitting sentiment around the world, pulling the s&p 500 down 1%. it is interesting. it is coming at without a bid in the bond market, something we saw earlier in the session. the 10-year yield higher at 3.7 zero. udc strengthen the dollar -- you do see strength the dollar. also, crude was down almost 3% earlier in the session, once again feeding into the china story, then coming up a little bit. now down only 0.5%. it is something we will dig into throughout the show. jon: and we are still seeing weakness, broadly speaking, in energy stocks, even though oil came off those lows. it is tied to china uncertainty right now.
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on one hand, you are actually seeing a notable lift today in resorts in a number of concealer -- of casino operators out of macau. some analysts commentary suggesting perhaps these companies could benefit from the reopening, but obviously, that is where a lot of question marks are right now. giving the uncertainty with the reopening and challenges with production, bloomberg reporting on that, weighing in on the stock in just last few minutes. elon musk calling out, it appears, apple in a twitter pole. we are also tracking this cyber monday retail trend. shopify, the canadian e-commerce platform with some encouraging numbers tied to black friday. shares are up right now, but certainly not as what is happening with to pool a -- ta boula. kriti: a fascinating take.
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it still seems that at the core, really wherever you look when it comes to the heavyweights. >> china has been a huge incremental growth engine. if they are not reopening, that is going to change the global economic output. in the total ecosystem. it is impacted. earnings are going to come down. the fact is, we are doing this on an earnings ratio basis, and they are only 4% off all-time highs. we see that coming down more into 2023. kriti: a little more insight from cameron. he talks to us about how he factors in these protests. is this something you trade off of? >> it is difficult.
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obviously, there is a near-term reaction, which is to sell things which are leveraged to china. but as we have seen with crude oil prices, that could be a pretty ephemeral trend. what we can say is that it certainly increases uncertainty around reopening, the timing, how that is modulated over the last -- the next several months. you would have to say it will probably differ any measures to reopen, because president xi jinping doesn't want to be seen as giving into popular unrest. jon: about a month ago, when we were obviously dealing with the same issues and had seen at notable weakness there much of this year tied to stocks and investments within china, you had posed the question at the time, does that represent a turning point, the fact we had
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seen so much selling pressure with perhaps a reopening on the horizon? what is the question to ask now? cameron: there are a number of questions, i suppose. i think the clip you played just before raises the important one, which is, what happens to corporate earnings? as a gentleman said, estimates have come a bit lower, but they are still a lot closer, still fairly close, to the peak. we are seeing these global headwinds not only from china, but also from lower demand around the world, courtesy of not only high energy prices vis-a-vis europe. that has mitigated a bit. but more the impact of monetary
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tightening in the u.s., europe, u.k., and elsewhere. what does that say about demand for goods and services that u.s. firms and other companies provide? it lacked impact of a strong dollar. and in terms of going back to the china story, the focus has largely been on chinese demand rather than the -- and the impact of covid on that. but now if we are going to see further disruptions to supply, which obviously -- and creatine alluded to that a moment ago. if you can't even get the goods from china to the u.s. or wherever the cell, that is obviously going to provide a
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headwind to earning power as well. jon: good perspective as always. bloomberg's cameron crise. let's keep it in context with our next guest. stephanie roth is a senior markets analyst at jp morgan bank. it is nice to have you with us. you have the uncertainty tied to the china story. cameron was talking about the potential for more corporate weakness on the profit side. in terms of the bigger question that a lot of market participants are wondering now, do we have a recession, what kind of recession could we potentially be looking at? how are you navigating those right now? stephanie: toward the end of the year, as we are looking at our outlooks, we expect a recession in the middle part of next year. we do not think it will be a financial crisis, but a run-of-the-mill type of recession. we are starting to see signs of layoffs, but we believe that could be a bigger trend. it is looking ok for the holiday
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season, but we do see heavy discounting. companies are worried about excess inventories. they are trying to get rid of what they have because of concerns of what is looming ahead. we think tougher times might be in the beginning part of next year and especially toward the middle part, then toward your end. we will probably see it rise up toward 5.5%. kriti: this china story that is clearly driving the markets today, is that something the federal reserve has to pay more attention to? if we start to see this tension on their covid zero policy, it is not a guarantee that it is going to stick or even last through march or april. is that something chairman powell should be thinking about and may be addressing in two weeks at the next fed meeting? stephanie: chairman powell has to be aware of all the impacts. slowing china is one of the many factors they have to be concerned about. i would say that primary concern is truly going to be on the employment backdrop. his labor demand still too
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strong, our wages too high, is inflation not slowing fast enough? i would say those of the top of the list. of course a slowdown in the global economy is something they will have to keep an i on. but inflation is absolutely the number one concern for them. jon: and certainly a lot of consumers navigating that inflation reality this holiday shopping season. you talk about the health of the consumer today. can you just walk us through a little bit more perspective and sort of how you see things playing out once we are through the holiday shopping season into the new year for that u.s. consumer? stephanie: the consumer tends to be the last that feels the impact from tighter policy. housing tends to be the first part, then manufacturing, then it tends to be the consumer. the consumer is not really feeling the brunt of higher rates quite yet outside of the housing sector. we do expect that to be the case in beginning part of next year. that will largely come from employment slowing down, layoffs starting to take effect. that tends to really hurt the consumer. we are not necessarily there,
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but the consumer has already seen a slowdown and that will just anymore material way. kriti: stephanie, a final question here. let's talk about the dollar, perhaps wavering in line with those fed expectations going into next year. ap terminal rate of 5% or five point -- 5.2 percent, the petting undertake. do we start to see the dollar decelerate or lose the momentum it has seen in the last year or so? stephanie: we think it is in the process of peaking. we don't think it will be a significant downtrend quite yet. we expect to see growth expectation to stabilize before we get that. we don't think there will be much more dollar strain from here. heading into next year, we would expect the dollar to continue to slide lower throughout the course of next year. the dollar has probably peaked already. kriti: certainly something where keeping an eye on. the bloomberg dollar index up 0.4%. stephanie roth, we think you as always. coming up on the show, oil turns positive on the day.
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opec-plus will seriously consider a new production cut. we are going to dive into the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." and while dried -- a wild ride for crude. and plot -- and protests in china. opec-plus said they would seriously consider any production cut. turning us out to walk us through the twists and turns is bloomberg oil future reporters -- future reporter, julia. how do we go from -3% to positive. >> there was a complete selloff
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right after the market was dealing with the protests in china, and also demand in china. there was a huge selloff and investors came and swooped in to buy oil at the lowest in almost a year, 2021 december lows. but then, there was this report from the eurasia group saying they were considering an output cut. in london, we also reported that opec is considering a cut. most of the traders are also agreeing that it looks like they might cut 500,000 barrels per day. that makes sense with what the market is doing. the market is at these low prices and opec does not like to see that. they are very likely to do a surprise second cut coming up when they meet over the weekend. jon: and this intraday chart early speaks to what you have been writing about today, which is the idea of energy market volatility. are you getting the sense that is going to likely continue into the end of the year? julia: it's going to continue
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through the end of the year for a couple of reasons paired one, liquidity is low and volatility is high. we had our vc's also write this morning that prices are not decreasing so much because of the physical oil issues, but mostly because of the fact that there is a lack of liquidity. that lack of liquidity is going to continue to drive volatility until the end of 2022. jon: julia, thanks very much for your energy reporting as always. we want to shifted technology. have a tweet from elon musk just the last couple of minutes, where the twitter owner and entrepreneur says that apple has threatened to withhold twitter from its app store but won't tell us why. that is a tweet that elon musk just posted in the last couple of minutes. we want to bring in ed ludlow, who has been tracking some of the growing tensions between
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musk and apple. what can we say that we know at this point about this relationship? ed: we know apple shares were pushed to a session low, 2.4% after the headline across the bloomberg terminal. elon musk has been tweeting about apple for most of the last two hours. he stated that apple has mostly stopped advertising on twitter paired he then asks the question, do they hate free speech in america? that is elon musk's tweet. he later followed up with a pole, in which he asked his twitter audience, should apple publish all censorship actions it has taken that affect its customers? really, musk is having -- clearly, musk is having some kind of worry about apple and their view on free speech. that is his view. it is interesting to see the stock under pressure after that headline. kriti: set the stage for us. apple was down pretty significantly even before this headline as well.
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walk us through the china impact that seems to be reverberating drought all the markets. ed: there's ongoing production in china for the iphone 14 pro and promax models. in the early hours of the morning last monday, there were strikes by workers that were confined to quarantining their. according to a bloomberg source, apple is now quantifying the impact of this ongoing disruption, along with protests and quarantine protocols ongoing in iphone city, as it is known. there will be 6 billion units of lost iphone production, according to the source, which is interesting. the main effect, according to the source, is that the quarantine policies that are in place are basically disrupting workers's ability to work. this is worrying because this is a key three-month period for
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apple, in terms of holiday sales. jon: no doubt. the other issues right now is what apple has said or not said about where things go from here, specifically with the relationship with china. i believe so far, apple has been fairly quiet in its commentary outside of just talking about expectations for products this holiday season. going back to elon musk, you mentioned he has been tweeting. he put out a pole within the last 30 minutes, where he seems to be dancing around the idea of apple's complicated relationship with china. we will have to wait for more details on that. but what is the consensus right now in silicon valley on whether apple will or will not be saying something going forward? ed: apple publicly has not said anything. the facility is operated by a contract manufacturer that assembles the iphones. when there were the worker strikes or clashes with guards
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in the early hours of wednesday morning last week, the company cannot pretty quickly and said the situation was under control and that the plant was operating normally. we reported the 6 million deficit in production, which is quite serious and a holiday quarter. the bloomberg source told us that apple and the contractor are sure of making up that shortfall, although you missed the key holiday period. we don't really have a good sense of what the duration of these impacts are. i think the source is telling us in this story that actually it is the quarantine, the covid rules that are most disruptive to production here, not the dissatisfaction or strikes from workers around pay and conditions. there's no way of really telling how long that will go on for, because the chinese government is doing a bouncy act of trying to protect the economy, while also reducing the spread of covid-19. apple officially hasn't said anything on either front. jon: helpful context, as always, ed.
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rate to get your perspective, as always. ed ludlow, cohost of bloomberg technology. we will continue to track all of that. coming up, nanotechnology confidence survey results are out. we will tell you the outlook for canada's economy. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ wn. and wn.which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get more healthcare benefits through a humana medicare advantage dual eligible special needs plan. call now and speak to a licensed humana sales agent to see if you qualify. depending on the plan you choose, you could have your doctor, hospital, and prescription drug coverage in one convenient plan. from humana, a company with over sixty years of experience in the healthcare industry. you'll have lots of doctors and specialists to choose from. and, if you have medicare and medicaid, a humana plan may give you other
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hearing aids, and more. a licensed humana sales agent will walk you through your options. answer any questions you have. and, if you're eligible, help you enroll over the phone. call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. jon: this is "bloomberg markets." time for today's "for what it's worth." 44.02 is the latest rating from the confidence index in canada. canadians are becoming a bit more optimistic about their financial situation when you compare it to a week ago, even with growing worries, for example, in the jobs market. canada is still expected to add jobs this month. we are expecting to get those numbers today. an increase in perceived
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employment security. more people expecting the value of real estate to increase in the next six months, after the huge drop we have seen in recent months, which in many ways echoes the weakness we have seen in certain american markets as well. kriti: definitely something i think is going to have a major effect in the ways these -- the ways you see officials handling this. the fed meeting is only two point five weeks away. it is interesting to see that reverberate to the markets. for today, the trade is all about china. you are seeing this as the stock market hits session lows, down 1.3% on the s&p 500. jon: certainly, because that was one of the legs of growth we were expecting. as stephanie roth was talking about with us earlier in the program, some of that lag in consumers perhaps starting to be more cautious once we get to the holiday season is going to create that question around recession going forward as well. a lot to watch. kriti: just one more thing for the fed to watch for those two
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weeks. i'm stuck curious what that meeting is going whole. weekly cross assets. 10-year yield in the green we .70. more markets coverage ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three
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mark: here is the first word. hawaii's volcano erupted for the first time in nearly four decades. volcano begin erecting late sunday night, prompting local officials to issue asphalt advisories and open emergency shelters -- ashfall. air traffic remains unaffected. so far, the law is contained near the summit. officials warn that may change. a close ally to the brazilian presiden


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