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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  December 1, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EST

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dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger alongside tom mackenzie in london. tom: fed chair jay powell signals the rate of hikes in december, but says there is still a long way to go for price stability. global equities rally. some patients isolate at home after a top official says the country is entering a new stage in the fight against the pandemic, indicating a softer start on lockdowns. and close to nothing. ftx's founder claims crypto's fault wiped out his entire fortune, while apologizing for the company's collapse. dani: the rally we're seeing now perhaps make sense if we are seeing beijing loosening quarantine rules. but yesterday is still a head
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scratcher, did powell say anything dovish? i'm not sure he did. dani: maybe it was the lack of pushback on loosening financial conditions from the last time he spoke. he underscored 50 basis points for december, with the reiteration rates would be higher for longer. but if you are looking into 2023 , with a higher terminal rate and risks of recession and quantitative tightening, it poses the question whether equities are ahead of themselves. dani: it seems like g rasping, but there are a lot of short positions out there. maybe it was a shortened relief rally. let me show you what equities are doing this morning, because we continue to see that rally again, this is more led by asia. we will get to our reporter about that in just a minute. let me take you into the numbers. 2% rally on the msci asia pacific, we have backed off a
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little bit. we have had this very large rally in chinese equities, in asian equities in general, as we start to see hints of easing of covid zero. euro stoxx 50 futures have to play catch up with the u.s., because when powell was speaking europe was closed, so they are up one end of 30%. s&p and nasdaq futures are virtually the same, up .3% more or less, but it has been tech that really the most yesterday. the most short stocks were the ones rally in, but we have bad news from tech. meta is pulling back on real estate expenditures in new york. snowflake warning of less spending coming, so it was a fed led rally not fundamentals. tom: and playing across the currencies of space. softness in the dollar continues, down around .5% today. the bloomberg dollar index of the last month down about 6%.
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as a result of that stronger euro and sterling. and if the yen is a standout in terms of the rate differential between the fed and boj that has been pronounced, but is easing as we look ahead to financial of 50 basis points in december. that is playing out in the end, gaining, 1.36. the euro is gaining .4%, we have softer eurozone inflation data yesterday, what does that mean in terms of the potential step down for the ecb? 75 to 50? yields are up at the front end today, just up two basis points 4.33 on the two-year. and iron ore, unpacking the optimism from incremental moves to ease restrictions in china, and as a result it is up 1.8%. dani: let's get more into that story with our reporters from
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around the world. rachel chang will bring us the latest from china. juliette saly will dissect it moves -- market moves. and will talk about powell's speech. tom: china's covid rhetoric seems to be moving in a more nuanced direction. beijing will allow some infected people to isolate at home, a significant shift that reflects pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to covid zero, which broke out over the weekend. let's bring in rachel chang who leads our consumer and health coverage in asia, how is the tone shifting, just put it in context for us. around isolation at home. >> the changes are incremental. china is going to move very cautiously and slowly on this reopening journey. in terms of the shift of rhetoric, it is very significant
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for those of us who have been watching this covid zero policy for three years, to hear china say omicron is not that deadly. to hear china say we are in a new phase of the pandemic, these are decisive moments. the chinese government is looking at reopening, but it will be a long, slow, widening causes. -- process. dani: after the weekend we have had a heavier police presence. do they seem to have worked if we are seeing concessions, like these signs from beijing? >> it's really that carrot and stick approach. we've seen massive police presence, protesters being detained. that warning of hostile forces trying to interfere. at the same time, we did quickly see carrots come through as well, a massive response by chinese standards to public outcry. we see rhetoric shifting towards a softer stance.
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what they are trying to tell people is we hear your concerns, we know some of these things are unreasonable, and we will pull that back slowly. but it's going to be a long-term he -- long journey, vaccination is low, health care facilities are not sufficient to protect against serious cases, so this will be a long process. dani: rachel chang who leads our asia consumer and health coverage. let's see how markets are reacting from that softening stance in china. with that is juliette saly. juliette: hi, dani. market participants very much clutching at any type of move, whether or not it is incremental, as rachel mentioned. it marks a big shift in terms of a policy move from beijing. you have seen significant moves in the currency market. we have the dollar stronger again against the offshore currency, but it spiked strongly against the dollar as that headline at the terminal 15 minutes ago. and you got the onshore you want
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strengthening against the greenback a third session in a row, positivity continuing in the reopening basket. the chinese stocks in hong kong doing well, particularly after that index was up 29% in november, the biggest since 2003. let's look at the macau picture. as it is we know there is easing of restriction, we will see optimism in gaming players but we are on track for the lowest revenue on record in macau. the figures from january to november not looking good, but it was a good month for the casinos. and optimism that once you see somewhat slow reopening, and movement on the borders that will lift up some of these casino players. more broadly, it is risk on across asia. we had a very solid month in november. the best since 1998. we're continuing to see upside in not just chinese as its, but have a look at the nikkei, a lot of this on the dollar weakness.
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we've been seeing significant strength in again at that three-month high. -- yen at that three-month high. dani: thank you, juliette saly with our update on asian markets. markets are cheering what they are seeing is a downshift from fed chair jay powell. he also stressed that more rate hikes are on the way. >> the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the december meeting. due to our progress in tightening policy, the timing is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation. tom: let's bring in our chief asia economics correspondent, and the current, dani and i were debating what the message was investors took from this commentary. what stood out to you? enda: two messages, tom. he was cementing the idea that
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it is going to be a 50 basis point move in december. they are slowing down jumbo rate hikes to something more manageable for the economy. on the other hand, she was doubling down on this idea that the ultimate destination for the fed's key rate is going to be higher than they themselves expected as recently as december. he said there isn't yet enough evidence that inflation is going where he wanted to be, and the road ahead remains uncertain. you can stand back and say, wow, that that are going to slowdown rate hikes, that means they must be getting things on a even keel. but it is more nuanced than that, he made it clear there is a lot of work to do and rates are going higher. if you and i spoke a year ago, and said the fed would be raising 50 basis points, we would've said that is still a big move, still hawkish and aggressive. dani: if we were talking
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yesterday, i would still sell you -- tell you it sounds hawkish. is there some degree then, markets are fighting the fed, which you shouldn't be doing? enda: they have seized on the idea that the fed will slow the pace of rate hikes. maybe there are those betting next year will be the year of disinflation if not outright deflation, that will happen because of your on your affects, but we know -- year on year effects, but we know inflation slowing down. they are talking about what the demand out there, the labor market hasn't softened as it should, clearly they have more work to do. i will keep an eye on jobs data, that will be pivotal for when the fed eventually changes course. but even if the fed does go on pause next year, there is no hint the fed will start cutting
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rates. they continue to double down on that message. dani: they softened, but to your point still at a very high level. bloomberg's enda curran there. we will continue the powell conversation, shifting gears, and the bond market rally. tom: mystery continues to shroud the missing billions of now bankrupt ftx, after sam bankman-fried denied trying to perpetrate fraud. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> for starters, we need to raise interest rates to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. we anticipate ongoing increases will be appropriate. it seems likely the ultimate level of rates will need to be higher than five at the september meeting. the time for moderating may come as soon as the december meeting. our progress, it is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. street cautions -- history
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cautions against loosening prematurely. we have a long way to go restoring price stability. tom: that was the fed chair speaking yesterday at the brookings institute, signaling a slowdown in the pace of tightening as early as december. dani: admit that optimism, the s&p 500 hit a two-month high. helping us to make sense of it is antoine bouvet senior rates strategist at ing bank. tom and i were talking about, perhaps he is not managing tighter financial conditions, but he is talking about a higher terminal rate, are we fighting the fed? antoine: powell didn't say anything new yesterday. he did push back against the tightening -- easing of financial conditions. what the market heard is that the fed will hike 50 basis points in december. once he said that, the market
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ultimately focused on the near-term pitch. tom: the long-term pitch has been revised. 5%, plus qt, plus potential recession is not good news for stocks. antoine: you have to look at what was priced in and what was expected. we have heard from a lot of fed speakers saying 5% is a good gauge of where this will end. he didn't say anything new, so slightly above the september forecast is around 5%. i think they will finish at this four-point sunday 5% -- 4.75% range. at this stage, it is difficult to live or a hawkish message for powell, and that was the problem esther day. dani: just looking at hedge fund shorts, we were at multi-year bearish levels. even if fed speakers and powell are trying to tell markets we're
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going to get restrictive and stay there, tactically you just want to follow this rally. antoine: it's been tough. sometimes we try to price things too early, and this is one of these cases where treasury yields being more than 130 or below where the terminal rate will become is excessive. that is explained by investors being underway treasury pretty much all year. there will be bumps along the road. treasury yields will end up much lower than they are now, but there will be a spike before this. tom: where do you want to position on the curve? antoine: if your eyes are on the 12 month, and you can stomach market losses, perhaps right
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now. if you are more technical, buying in early 2023 when you get another spike is the more wise thing to do. dani: when you are trying to parse where the fed goes, we had jolts yesterday, they are softening. cpi data improved in recent weeks. continue to claims arising, wage growth has stalled but all of them are at high levels. what should be more important, the absolute level or the direction of travel? antoine: the direction of travel at this stage, as much as there is softening, it is very slow. we will see on the jobs report, how much of that growth is. if we remain at 200,000 jobs created per month, it is above population growth, and it points to a tight with the market and it will take a few months before the fed can say things have turned. and this is the direction of travel we are looking for. tom: there have been calls to find investment grade u.s.
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credit. the default rates are low, you may not want to push into higher yields, but investment grade u.s. is offering opportunities, is that window still open? antoine: what i will say is you typically want to wait until the end of the cycle before making bets on risk assets. this tightening of financial conditions is not veneer, it -- linear, it accelerates as rates go above neutral. the second, powell said this but it was lost in translation, it is not clear the timing or the end point of the rate hiking cycle. if we are wrong by three months, it could have significant impact on risk sentiment. dani: in terms of inflation and central banks getting more aggressive, how do you look at the swing factor of china easing back on covid zero, and more demand coming back from the region?
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antoine: it is tough to call, i think. a lot of categorical analyses have been made, and they are proven right or wrong every day, you get signals on both sides. taking a step back, there is a willingness to ease off on restrictions, but question is if that is realistic with a two month rising, knowing that winter is coming. is not the sort of period when you want to ease off on these restrictions, it's the correct trade but a few months' horizon probably. tom: that's what i'm not clear about. inflation effects are the result of snarled supply chains in china, if you reopen and get that huge demand for oil and commodities, and that inflationary impact when investors are expecting cpi to reduce towards 2023, how do we square those things? china reopening versus an expectation you get softening of inflation stateside? antoine: ultimately, we will get
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that bump in global demand when china reopens but it is three months away. given the current volatility and micro uncertainty, it is a much longer time than it was a few years ago. so it is difficult to position for this now. second, china reopening has started to be considered more a demand side issue that a supply-side one, and this will boost the commodity complex, especially energy and will cause a problem for inflation. the one thing central banks are focused on is not so much headline but underlying inflation. if the euro zone and u.s. have recession soon, that headline inflation will be less than the underlying core inflation. tom: antoine bouvet joining us in studio today. with the call they expect u.s. treasuries to end 120 basis
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points lower in 2023. mr. reed continues to shout the missing billions at now bankrupt -- mystery continues to shroud of the missing billions at now bankrupt ftx. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. sam bankman-fried has given one of his first interviews into what went wrong at ftx. speaking to the new york times deal book summit, he admitted making mistakes. >> whatever happened, whyever it happened, i have a duty to all of our stakeholders, custom, creditors, employers to do right by them. to make sure the right things happen to the company. i didn't do a good job with that. i was shocked by what happened
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this month. tom: let's bring in our reporter in hong kong. sam bankman-fried denying he committed fraud, but what did he say about the connection between ftx and alameda? was anything convincing around transparency on what that relationship was? >> certainly a lot of questions came out of this interview. it lasted 50 minutes or so. what he said about the connection between ftx and alameda, he said they were more interconnected than he imagined them to be. when he was looking at the relationship, he was focusing on trading volumes, and they were quite small, he said. but he was missing the terms of positions balances, that was the bigger problem here, that was the bid acknowledgment he made today. the question around the commingling of funds was front and center, were ftx customer
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funds commingled with alameda? he dodged that, he said he didn't knowingly commingle funds, but that is not an answer either. dani: he said i didn't ever try to commit fraud on anyone, denying those claims. those are the issues at stake, the other one is collateral. what was used for collateral for clients, and whether it was ftx's own token, did he speak about that? >> he spoke in detail, especially given ftx was using ftt, solana, other tokens as collateral. did they assign the correct value, he was asked, and said in the case of alameda, no, they didn't because he wasn't managing it correctly from a risk perspective. what would've been a big drop of 30% in one day, but we saw the ftt token down 95% in just a few hours. tom: what's the reaction to
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these comments from sbf? >> an interesting one from bill ackmann of pershing square, he tweeted he thinks same bankman-fried is telling the truth. given that sam was pressed a number of times on whether he was being honest, and his answer was that he was as truthful as i am knowledgeable to be. so a lot of questions there as well. dani: one high-ranking vote of confidence there. thank you so much, annabelle droulers in hong kong. we will take a look again at china's changing tone on covid curbs. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician.
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tom: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie with dani burger. these are the stories that set your agenda. dani: they're still a long way to go for stability. nations isolated home after top officials say the country is entering a new stage of the pandemic. fdx's founder says they knocked out nearly his entire fortune after apologizing for the company's collapse. so much hawkish nurse was priced in already. perhaps that explains the rally we have been witnessing. tom: it is the idea of that no
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pushback in what is happening in china is playing into the markets. you are up three tents a percent. arguably making the case for the ecb to step down. up more than 1%. the rate differential comes in slightly. currently up about three basis points.
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that product resources to 1.7%. dani: they were upaps we are not seeie biggest of rallies as the story has been developing. perhaps we are trying to price things in. european stocks to have to play catch-up because of that monster rally for the tech index. tech has been slightly underperforming. that is the word from the cloud company snowflake.
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that is the word from a hawkish jay powell. tom: let's see if that holds today. let's get some first word news. >> parliament has approved a panel to investigate the south african president over a scandal at his game farm. he could be at risk over an alleged cover appeared they will report findings next week. he has reiterated his denial of any wrongdoing. u.k. food prices have risen an additional 6% because of brexit. the study says customhats, sanitary measures all added to
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friction between importers and exporters. president volodymyr zelenskyy says 6 million people are currently without electricity in the ukraine. we need high-voltage equipment that can be repaired quickly. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: after nearly 20 years -- after years of fighting covid, china seems to be moving into a more nuanced direction. china will allow some infected people to isolated home. that signifies the pressure officials are under after signs
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of public opposition. for more, let's bring in rachel who leads our consumer and health care coverage. this seems normal in other countries but the context for china is significant. the return to quarantine if you are infected. rachel: for three years we have seen china fight this virus so fiercely. have seen that rhetoric of other countries and letting them being demonized. softer moments are coming out from chinese officials right now. infected people, living to tell the tale. that is very significant and maps the fact that china is finally looking at their reopening path towards rejoining
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the rest of the world. dani: does this shift in tone go anywhere to quell some of the tension? rachel: we know this entire week , there has been massive presence on the ground. we have seen protesters being called up. at the same time, these concessions have come rather quickly. this is banking on the fact that the mass -- vast majority can be dealt with for these excessive curves. they are going to listen to these reasonable requests. they are hoping this will address the mass -- the vast majority of unhappiness. we do know that the weakness -- weekends are when we see protest coming. dani: thank you very much, rachel.
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police developments being closely watched for the world. not just -- all of these developments being closely watched by the rest of the world. now we have jennifer bisceglie from interos solutions. ceo and cofounder. what does your conversation look like with clients now that we have seen a shifting tone from china? jennifer: good morning. the large part is around it not ground effect. we had thanksgiving, black friday, cyber monday, 20 billion dollars being pushed into the u.s. economy. a large part of that coming from products coming out of china. 25% based on a covid
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restriction. there is a real concern to fill those orders coming out of the u.s. alone. apple just reported -- for iphones. there is a real concern in tech. tom: that is coming and production of 2022. some of the parts most affected by these constraints, as china is looking to ease some of those restrictions, where should you look for it easing of those supply chain constraints? jennifer: that is a great question. i think some companies are looking to develop this. i think the last few years have really educated companies that
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they cannot depend on the old normal of doing business. they need to look at what happens if parts of china shut down. what happens if there is a surge in demand like we just had the holidays? companies are truly mapping their supply chain for multiple tears. if you think about if it is the cost of raw materials, the inflation that is happening, the companies that will get ahead are the ones that are planning for those things. dani: people this morning telling bloomberg that they are developing more high-powered chips in their arizona facility. shifting that to the americas at the behest of apple. is that part of this model that companies do this sensitivity
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analysis? jennifer: absolutely. it is the preplanning in the mapping of the supply chain. when you think about what has happened, the world has been educated. we all ran to one part of the world, china. it created innovation, access to lower-cost from a creation standpoint. it is the -- if you think about what amazon has done, they have replaced distribution to get us closer to the consumer, that is what we really talk about. talk about re-shoring, it is having alternative sources to get us closer to the consumer and access different parts of the labor market to reduce costs.
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that is what companies are really focused on. tom: we talk about the reduced cost. there has to be an outlay to build out some of these contingencies. if you think about how inflation costs are being built in as businesses try to shore up supply chains adding to their capacity, what is their longer-term cost for these businesses and that pass on? jennifer: the beauty of the supply chain, where they start to get into the neck of it and it costs a little more upfront to reduce profit margins, but then the supply chain is just absorbing it and you have multiple tears. it will be smooth over time.
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the companies said are going to win are going to realize that brand loyalty is gone for the moment. mothers and fathers are just trying to feed their babies around the world. we are not going for the brand, we are looking for ability. all of us can learn from some of the higher costs right now. just for the availability of the products that we all want. dani: part of the debate is from fed chair jay powell trying to combat inflation. in some way, it does seem like they are having a play for time. when you look at the supply and inflation cost added, will plan for time work in reducing the inflation? we talk about the generational
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shift, how much time do they need to do that? jennifer: i wish i had a crystal ball to answer your question. of all the interviews we have done over the last three years, how long has been the predominant question. it is time. anywhere from 12-24. this is as much a cultural shift that has to happen. it is the absorption of cost of risk for businesses. i always say it takes about 12-15 months to absorb that behavior that's probably what i would stick with. tom: ok, jennifer bisceglie, ceo and founder of interos, really great insight there. meda is scaling back there plans.
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-- meta is scaling back their plans. we will have more, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: stocks rallied yesterday and continue to this morning as a fed chair jay powell signaled a slowdown. markets suggesting a key overnight rate peaking below 5% despite powell saying they need to get more restrictive and stay there. let's bring in bloomberg executive director paul dobson. powell did not take any dovish turns. he still said that they will lift rates, be it more slowly. what you think of such a strong market reaction? paul: i think there are two things, what powell did not say.
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we know that things have eased in recent weeks. yields have fallen and stocks have rallied. there was no dissent in that from powell. there is an impression that they are comfortable what what the market is pricing in. the other thing that is important is how powell reiterated from the meeting, he is talking about the possibility of slower rate hikes from december. they are very skeptical of that. there is still plenty of time for the fed to adjust their view. the market could price in some skepticism. we have been talking about the likes of the bank of america needing to deliver the second
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half of next year. i think the market is still on that narrative at the moment. tom: that is interesting. other fed officials as well saying that the terminal rate needs to be higher. what else was in the mix for you paul? one thing stood up in terms of easing of financial conditions. all of this ahead of that decision in december. paul: there is still plenty of risk ahead. all you need to do is get your view on the fed right. this is what i found so fascinating. the positive correlation is kind of striking. if you look at the correlation
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between yen and stocks, it is positive. it is normally the other way around. it is all about the dollar and all about interest rates. as long as you know what is going to happen in the fed, you know will happen in every other asset class. that makes it a really interesting investment. if you're a longer term investor who can only go along. tom: equities continue to rally again. thank you very much, paul dobson. bloomberg is told facebook parent meta is scaling back. dani: they are looking to slash expenses. this is really fascinating.
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a microcosm of all of tech. a reporter back in november wrote about the office space. their purchase of the office space was the biggest deal in 2020. it was almost assigned that despite the pandemic, they are really strong, still buying office space. here we are and meda is now pulling away from them. tom: something of a risk where companies were entrenching. it is a reminder, as you say of the fact that tech companies are having to look through their numbers in terms of headcount and trying to tighten things up in this higher rate environment. the questions, particularly around advertising. dani: you also have snowflake,
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saying that corporate spending is lower. sales forecasts are also disappointing as well. always joking with you that markets be so crazy, while they do be so crazy. [laughter] tom: do you know that they have a row about -- a robot that carves out part of your soul. dani: no, but i do welcome robots. tom: it is on record, dani will welcome robots as the boss. [laughter] the pivot here. meeting with president biden, high on the agenda is the u.s. inflation reduction. we will give you the details. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: the french president is on a three-day visit to the u.s. meeting with president biden in washington dc today. the meeting comes a mixed rising tensions criticizing the u.s. inflation reduction act. for more, we have our guest. what does the u.s. -- what does the u.s. hope to achieve with this visit? >> there is a lot of trade tensions between the two. macron wants to be the voice of europe during this trip. they were one of the first states to criticize the inflation act.
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they are saying it should be a wake-up call for europe to create their own act. technically, it is a response to a package. more recently, france and germany have created this joint tax force for trade retaliation that could be put in place after this reduction act. one option would be to file a complaint with the wto, but that would take years to resolve. they are seeking some redemptions for this. tom: what about electric vehicles? >> technically, a subsidy made
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in the u.s. with u.s. components around $7,500 with this package. that is putting european carmakers at a disadvantage. you need to have batteries made in the u.s. and north america. subsidies are for ev's coming from any companies. tom: thank you very much. up next, "bloomberg markets: europe." this is bloomberg. ♪ setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. because when we work together, the future is bright. these days, your customers are not just down the hall. they're all over the
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