tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg December 14, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST
guy: wednesday the 14th of december, european equities clawing their way back to basically flat. we are now waiting and watching. it's all about the fed, then the bank of england, then the eight -- ecb. that's the schedule of the next 48 hours. that's a lot to get through. the countdown to the close starts now. >> the countdown is down -- on in europe. this is the countdown to the close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: european stocks, absolutely
flat. clawing our way back up, waiting for the federal reserve, that tells you something about what's happening with yield. the pound and the euro are both higher but still in their trading higher, 3/10 of 1%. then we get into the individual stocks. watch yourself, switzerland. tracking lower today. demand for watches remains buoyant, interesting by itself, but this is a margin story, the real narrative coming out of this year into next. they carried a lot of inventory and the stock has been marked down on the back of trading a moment ago. alix: that's what they've been talking about at morgan stanley. margin earnings estimates. a couple of things going on here. we are waiting on the fed and the s&p is up, but energy is quite interesting, it had been the biggest outperformer half an
hour ago but then we got the inventory number and we saw this and or miss bill for barrels of oil. this contrasts with the outlook for next year that is quite a list. they see in production coming down a bit, real push and pull in the energy market. also idiosyncratic, and i urge you to watch this space, bank of japan officials see the possibility of a policy review next year. do they abandon the yield curve control that can meaningfully help to support the curve in the market? talking about the fed and how we have positioned into it, equities are going nowhere despite the bond auction yesterday not being so great. two year yield, down by five points. guy: gary gensler making news now, we will come back to talk about that in a moment, but sweeping changes, apparently. pricing, improving.
sonali basak will be with us to give us an update shortly but let's talk more now about what's happening with the inflation narrative. you guys think you have ended and flicked -- an inflation problem? we got this data out of the u.k. this morning, headline inflation dropping. 10.9 had been expected but i guess that's a silver lining and it doesn't deal like one. down from 11.1 with rpi still 14 and the core still at 613 but this is a country with a massive problem with the labor market. critical time for a range of factors. people leaving the labor market, it's a whole range of issues the bank of england have to deal with and you get a sense that this is going to be a problem and you wonder if the european central banks are going to have to be more hawkish than u.s. counterparts.
alix: particularly on it i appreciated that there was a little decline and not a lot backing out it looks like now that's not the case when it comes to the u.k. guy: the biggest problem over here apparently is alcohol prices in bars going up dramatically. gin, whiskey, all those things. that's not what you want to hear in the build up to christmas. we will find out if we are getting 50 or 75 from the bank of england tomorrow. are we getting the grinch something else? a few days ago they weighed in on the inflation story and how complicated it's going to be when it comes to the environment. >> it's challenging. high inflation, slow demand, rising interest rate.
overall households and businesses are placed under higher than previous industries -- previous times of stress. guy: bank of england is really going to struggle to manage this and in some ways the fed decide how deep the narrative will be. the other central banks in europe are facing other complicating factors and are going to have to push harder but maybe not too hard. leading us to the question of the hour, which bank will be the biggest hawk this week? it will be interesting to see how the narrative develops. simon white in the studio, eddie van der walt on the line. bank of england clearly has a range of problems it has to deal with right now but tb sure looks complicated.
>> that's right to some extent. you mentioned bank of england. the rates are relatively low end you will see the biggest disappointment in the bank of england. market higher, bank of england lower. the u.k. then has a problem with mortgages, right? a serious impediment to -- you mentioned a sticky inflation but there are these hundreds of thousands of people coming off the fixed rate deal every month and it really hampers what the bank of england can do and we may wind up with the stickiest inflation problem and a central bank that is curtailed, a perfect recipe for stagflation. guy: but then how are the -- alix: but then how are the markets playing at? the way it is phrased in terms of a recession, i wouldn't think that we would be seeing 124. eddie: absolutely.
powell is coming back in a big way and as simon pointed out, it's a conundrum. bank of england in a sticky situation. they have the most work to do because of the tight labor market. and because of the knock on implications around brexit. at probably the weakest. the market is telling us that the bank of england will have to but simon is right, they are being set up for disappointment, here. do we want to force a recession just to bring about changes in the market that are structural that we cannot really affect? and we have to do that through the housing market. that is not something any government likes to see happening. guy: -- alix: how far -- guy: how far can the ecb push?
i've got so much hawkish chap here. i'm wondering how far they can go. btp market is one that instantly stands out. eddie: absolutely. for the ecb, it's slightly easier and this european energy crisis scenario is fading of it. we can get through the gold without seeing prices spiked too much and it bodes well for the time where energy prices are coming down sharply to support the ecb and their drive to get inflation down. i think on that front they are in a slightly better position than, say, the bank of england, but the ecb still has to talk about titling tomorrow and we will have to see what their plans are to get out of that. as you say, i think the fed has
the easiest alix: path. you sound -- path. alix: you sound positive. i wonder, does the market need consensus? feels like where the line diverges that's in the outlook where it is for the boe and ecb, that's being right now. simon: yeah i mean one thing i guess that is consistent is we all seem to be heading into the tapering place, right? all the central banks. tapering with 50 basis points from all central banks, now through tomorrow. that part is consistent. peak is expected to happen before the bank of england and the ecb but these guys are not going to get anything close to the peak level of rates the fed is going to get to. guy: are they at all comparable? you would have thought, europe has so much debt and you wonder
-- u.s. has plenty as well but you wonder if the u.s. economy is capable of taking him or even needs a higher rate to inflict the same level of demand to that a lower rate will do you in europe. simon: there is something to be said for that but i think that people are expecting bank of england and ecb to up those more comparable rates with the fed but that's not looking likely to be the case. my longer-term view is that this is just kind of the first course . we will see an initial pullback. rates cut back everywhere i would say and then at that point we will see who is going to get tested and what the final pico the rates is going to be. alix: not totally diverged yet, because of that point. focusing on the next 24 to 48 hours, how are markets positioned for the move and central banks?
cpi yesterday and the u.s., there was such an upside move, feels like we are a coiled spring with these big, juicy moves being the norm versus the exception regardless of what the number is. eddie: the narrative is probably one of the most interesting of ever seen in markets. it's a sharp reaction higher, but the narrative quickly came through that the expectation is that the fed, the fed that powell and the other banks have will start pushing back against the idea that the terminal rate will be lower than the market is currently priced, right? a pushback on asset prices. if we do not see the pushback from the fed today, if the fed knowledges that the market or inflation is starting to react to some of its policy measures, there may not be a significant upside to be had here.
i think the biggest risk here is the upside risk. alix: and i think they proved that yesterday. let's get back to that breaking news u.s. regulators taking a first step towards a huge, huge revamp, the biggest in a decade, in the way that stocks are actually traded. let's see if we can take you through this event. the plans from the sec are in response to that meme crazed trading and the payment for order flow that we saw two years ago. they felt it makes markets not very competitive and it could lead to more orders being filled on exchanges like the stock exchange instead of wholesale brokerages. it could also change how trays are auctioned in order to get the best price. they want to reduce the rebates exchanges can now offer brokers in a bid to pull more trades onto platforms.
this could have significant changes in the trading community. guy: the quote from gensler is -- today markets are not as fair and competitive as possible for individual investors, everyday retail investors. the rule changes, apparently, the biggest being proposed since 2005. as you say, this all came through as a result of what we saw with robinhood, the meme story, and the s and c -- sec coming up with what we are now likely to see. expecting details later on, but it does sound like they are looking at some fairly significant changes. i guess at the core of all of this will be transparency. that's probably the direction of travel they want to take us in. looking for transparency. alix: but it's interesting, they are not manning payment for
order flow altogether, which is different from what we might have thought a couple of years ago. but for some insight on this, catherine doherty. set the stage for us, what is the problem gary gensler is trying to fix right now? >> the real headline here is the domination of how stock trading has occurred for two decades, which was the last time the market saw an overhaul similar to what we are seeing today. he basically wants to give other players new entrants that haven't been able to build market share. a fairer opportunity or at least an ability to compete in the market, which he is saying is not the case as we see today. guy: katherine, these are big, powerful firms who will not take it lying down. how difficult will the process
be? katherine: very. there have been lawsuits in pushback from the firms who will have to really think about how this impact their business model. and we have seen technology and the ways these firms have really been able to build their own revenue stream and compete in a way that they say is in a fitting retail investors. so that is i think going to be what they argue. the way that the current system works is to benefit all investors, institutional retail, and that these changes could blow up what they say has been the best model since nms of 2005. alix: market participants will now have to engage in auctions for the right to process orders within milliseconds. what does that mean and what does that look like? katherine: it's going to be very
complicated and we will have to still suss out the details but wholesalers will have to, if they can show they are getting the midpoint for orders, they could get out of the auction model. it would be very specific and we will still have to see the details of how it actually plays out but i will also note that the actual exchanges, the venues where this will take place, they have to meet certain criteria. volume thresholds. they have to display the quotes. specifically these alternative trading systems, they will have to change their business model if they want to host auctions the way that exchanges today that display data would be able to. guy: katherine, that was fantastic. we will let you get back to sifting exactly what the sec is proposing here. coming up, more on this week's
>> ecb has the hardest job because we know there's a risk out there for the european continent depending on what vladimir putin does and how cold the winter is. i think the ecb has the harder job because on the one hand they are worried about inflation. on the other hand they are worried about the price shop and i would not want to be in their shoes. guy: making it clear whose shoes he would rather be in, bill dudley, he of course formerly of the new york fed. joining us now, jens eisenschmidt, morgan stanley's chief european economist and, important skill set, former economist at the ecb. central banks, who needs to be the most hawkish, who has the
biggest problem? what do you think? who has the biggest problems in the next 24 hours? jens: in the classic sense, it's the fed, they are facing that classic case of inflation produced domestically in its own economy. everyone else, talking about fed and bank of england, they usually have imported inflation problems. but as has been said here before , this is the jurisdiction most exposed to the ukraine war. alix: do you think that the ecb is going to have to be more hawkish and if they are, what form does it take? jens: the element of that, i think that what they will be doing will be keeping with what the market thinks.
they are on a journey here. first, they have to get rid of these negative rate measures. it was the first thing they did back in the summer. now they are on the second part of their journey, a complete journey towards neutral rights, wherever they are, taking away additional stimulus demand. which is not what you want to do is the central bank. and then the most difficult part of that stance, going into restrictive territory, calla grady -- calibrating nicely. our expectation is that they will disseminate those basis points and their own beliefs concluded the second part of the journey to reach neutral more or less that than the more difficult part starts. guy: do you think that there is a danger that the ecb or the bank of england surprises us
with a basis point hike? jens: there is always this danger given the high volatility in the market. but we have heard this before. this is certainly a situation in which you want to be super assertive and clear that you are taking your inflation goals seriously behind those 75 basis points. and of course what has happened since october meeting is that rates have decreased. not what you necessarily want to see. at this stage there is also a need to talk it out. but we think that they will basically get there by combination of the 15 plus the strengthened determinations with some kind of guidance that this is not the end of the journey and rates will be raised into a restrictive territory.
alix: does the ecb forecast a recession tomorrow? and how did they talk about it? jens: well, we don't think so. we do have a recession called for consensus as well and we think they won't be that far away. technically speaking we are not calling for at -- recession in our expectation but at the same time it's a downturn that will be acknowledged and at the same time they will be saying that downturn that they are seeing is not sufficient to keep inflation fully and check, so they need to help with the monetary policy on the other side. in terms of inflation expectations we think they will have 2.1%, which would be the intellectual sort of backdrop against which the attack is warranted, under their own protection. alix: is the stroke -- guy: is
the stronger euro a friend to the ecb? there have been talk that this is an energy shock on inflation that has been derived that way and you need to raise that currency and reduce the price of energy. how big an impact is it going from spot 97, spot 98, to the current level we have right now in terms of the impact we are seeing through the currency channel? jens: i think it will carry some weight in the debate tomorrow. simply because normal elasticity brings a reduction in inflation around what's sizable. so we are talking what, 6% against the u.s. dollar and that counts for something. same for growth. in some sense if it goes in the right direction at this stage for the ecb, i would say, why would they not be targeting that
exchange rate? it's clearly not the thing to do in the environment of the central bank and the fed, the bank of england, in which they are operating, but to take the rates as an import on policy decisions, having said that it will for sure feature in the discussion tomorrow. alix: yeah they say that but come on. where is the risk tomorrow? jens: these are wonderful points and it's not such a clear-cut choice to go from 50 to 50. it's simply an acknowledgment that the economy is weakening and maybe it's not the right place for an economy like europe or the u.k. and there is a need to talk it down where you could argue that you can't get that. i would say it's very, very limited. guy: person part -- perfect
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guy: so, we are wrapping up the wednesday session in europe and waiting for the fed. markets have come back to neutral the next 24 hours. we will be watching carefully for the impact of the central bank as it works its way through the market. here in euro, frankfurt, london, pretty flat across europe. tax is down by 2/10 of 1%. ftse, absolutely flat. similar story in other markets as well. here as we have wrapped up today, banks neutral, spending much of the day and much more negative territory, a little softer where we are now,
absolutely flat on the stoxx 600 and it's a fairly even split and it comes to that second story that we are breaking down for you as well. utilities and retail are at the top but that feels defensive. bottom of the market basic resources with travel and leisure, materials are down. pretty even split. not a lot to take away from that in the equity markets. everyone is waiting for the central banks. signal stocks, this is where we get more interesting. it's not a demand issue, it's a margin issue right now. building inventory, softness in during, but at the moment it feels like things are holding up . demand for watches, high-end watches, holding up. this travel company taking money during pandemic, looking like they will have a cash raise to
pay some of them -- that back. then there is this, in tax, weathering the storm it seems. it's a management story that will again be about margins as the narrative comes out. that is where investors are definitely focusing their attention right now. alix: yeah and how do you buy companies where good margins are not automatically priced? pouring into the bonds that offer returns and yields for the first time in a long time as equities waiver around economic uncertainty. we asked one evercore analyst on where he's digging his cash. bonds or stocks. ralph: even at my age i look longer-term, i still put money in equities.
10, 15, 20 years, equities tend to outperform bonds. alix: and now to someone who might agree, nigel bolton. black rock in general seems to not like bonds on the equity side. nigel, walk us through what you think. nigel: to be honest there are opportunities in equities and bonds as well. some of the yields in the bond market we haven't seen for many years and i think it is a good time to have a balanced folio and i think you can see the opportunity on the credit side for bonds and in the equity markets as well. guy: so is this 60/40 back? alix: i -- nigel: i think we need to look at the risk return models. people are going back to the drawing board but i suspect 2023 will be a better year for people with a balanced portfolio,
better than what we saw in 2022. alix: overall it yields rise, what has already priced for that and where are the ripples felt? nigel: when you look at the equity market, we have had a big repricing around the world and it is throwing up opportunities and i think that where we see opportunity is very much at the individual stock level. it will be a stock pickers market in 2023. you touched on margins earlier, that will be key and i think we will see on the opposite side companies really struggling. it's going to be a great opportunity for active investors to really pick stocks with good fundamentals. guy: when do earnings, though, bottom? have we seen them bottom already in the first part of next year? how is it different on the other seida of the atlantic?
nigel: it's interesting, we have a market going into a slowdown. a recession? i think it will be here in the u.k. and europe. if you asked me to put money on it i would say yes, u.s. will tip into recession. what i don't see the circumstances for a deep recession and the big difference this time around is the high nominal growth rate that underpins company revenues, underpins cash flow. it's how they sort of control the margin that is going to be the output around that bigger input. the higher growth number. alix: but hasn't that been priced into the upside with stocks that can deliver that at this point? nigel: bear markets make a muppets of both bulls and bears and you have had that with the bull rally we had over the last couple of months or so. i think it is looking a bit long
in the tooth and you would be surprised to see that moving into 2023 where we see that correction but i think you will see a divergence that will be the story of 2023, very stock specific and a divergence of different companies across the markets. guy: so how then should i approach my screen if i'm looking at trying to understand how to put money to work. margins, we've heard a little bit about that. looking across a range of stocks how do i figure out which ones have the star? nigel: in simple language you want those that will beat on expectations. easy to state, harder to find. that is where you really need to understand the business, with the management of the company are doing, and you have seen it already and some of the news of the day. some companies are doing well in
this environment, others are struggling. that will be repeated several times in 2023. alix: how much more upside will there be in energy and where? nigel: in the european energy names relative to the u.s., they are certainly looking really attractive. yes, you have to interplay the windfall tax in europe but i think there are opportunities there. renewables, transition stocks, that's an area that interests us. guy: talk to me about discretionary. there is a part of society that is struggling, that discretionary area that they normally spend money in will suffer but then other areas like lvmh, they continue to do well. how do i figure out what is
discretionary that will work and what is discretionary that will not work? nigel: it's down to the fundamentals of the individual company you are looking at. what is that supply chain, what does it look like? what are the dynamics of where the customers are located? there are big geographic differences going on that will continue through 2023. it will be hard. it will be an easy market if you can understand the business you can understand where the earnings are going on those margin expectations. they can go up in terms of share price and that's the real opportunity out there, a real stock's market in 12 months. alix: where do european banks fit into that? nigel: we've been going in over the last 10 months and partly it's been about how you ration and partly about changes to the
interest rates and that's been a profit driver about the banks in europe. we still have valuations seen as relatively attractive with fears of recession but that higher nominal growth number makes a difference. in their balance sheet has been in a much better place than it was 12 or 13 years ago so we see that sector as relatively attractive. guy: my take away from this conversation is i should be spending money on employing an active fund manager. problem is over the last 10 years that has been the worst thing to do. passive, done well. active, you underperformed the benchmark. do you think a lot of people are going to be willing to spend that money and get an active fund manager? nigel: i think that when you have a market that has been unidirectional for quite some time, it has been challenging some active manager, not all, but some, i think it is more
difficult. ian in an environment that will be more volatile, the market will be range bound quite some time and you need to look for the alpha to drive your real return from those equity portfolios. guy: nigel, always great to catch up with you. come back soon, we appreciate your time. talking about what's been closed for the day, the ftse, not going into much in terms of the numbers. all closing and negative territory. we will wait and see how they reopen tomorrow because we will have that fit decision and the jay powell press conference. plenty of coverage coming up on the cable, 5 p.m. london time, 12 p.m. in new york. had to your radio podcasts you can find on spotify. alix: which i think you can now listen to as you catch the last train. i will be there, you can listen,
ritika: you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, bruce richards joins tv -- bloomberg tv at 4 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. keeping you up to date with news from around the world, and the u.k. there's a possibility that the worst of the cost-of-living squeeze is over. inflation dipping from november, consumer prices rising from year ago, down from 11% in october. british households are desperate for relief after a big jump in energy and food bills.
the u.s. is set to fulfill a key demand from ukraine once there is final approval from president biden the pentagon will send air and missile defense batteries. patriots that are needed to counter the relentless barrage of russian missiles. the president of latvia is calling for a special tribunal to judge russia for its invasion of ukraine, telling bloomberg that russia should have to pay for reconstruction. >> the greatest possible violation of international law and there should be consequences and one of the consequences is seizure of russian assets abroad. and as necessary, give those assets to a fund or in another way for rebuilding of the, of ukraine. ritika: western countries froze the russian central bank assets
after the invasion of ukraine in february. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. we are now counting down to the fed. how hawkish is powell going to be? our question of the day. for another answer to the question, we bring in ira jersey. how tough is he going to have to talk tonight, i rock? ira: he's going to have to be tough in general. he had sounded dovish, or at least markets took him that way, last day of november when he spoke at the brookings institute. powell is going to have to press back against that but most importantly he's going to have to hit the market on the head with his sledgehammer saying we are going to keep rate at the peak for longer than you might think and the reason we are
going to do that is everything is pretty strong right now and we don't want inflation expectations to become embedded and we are going to interest rates here longer than in previous cycles. alix: did you say natural language processing model? what is that? ira: it's a neural network that we run all of powell's statements through, through this model, which tells us whether or not he is hawkish or dovish based on empirical data. interestingly, that discussion he had at the brookings institute was the most dovish she had been since may of 2020. so right, right during the whole pandemic scare. it definitely was a dovish statement and i think he has to walk some of it back because financial conditions now are getting easier and that's not something the fed wants at this
point even though we have reached peak inflation with large sectors, cpi confirmed this yesterday, places like the service sector growing at a decent rate in terms of prices and services, which are 60% of the economy and that matters a lot to the fed. until that rolls over they will continue to sound reasonably hawkish. guy: don't ever run that piece of software over this show, ira. [laughter] why should i believe powell? data shows clear signs of a softening of inflation. isn't that the biggest take away? i appreciate what you are saying about pockets still existing but broadly the market believes inflation will come down rapidly , so why should they believe powell? ira: they definitely will in he's going to say look, we are still targeting a 2% inflation rate and if you annualize
yesterday's cpi you are still running at 3.6% on the annualized basis, still well above the 2% target. that's the reason why he's going to continue to say look, we don't want to hike too much, we are going another 75 of 125 basis points and we can price that out now for three or four more basis point hikes. keeping it at the peak until it's clear that you are going to be heading towards 2% aggressively, that is, that is what he has to convince the market. why will the market believe him? the dots are probably going to stay there and he has to reiterate it over and over again and not make those dovish comments. alix: some amazing, i can't believe you have this model. don't know why i didn't know about it before. stay with us, we will bring you full coverage of the fed reserve
rate decision at 1:30 p.m. new york time and later if you want to trade some stocks, there may be some changes. the sec proposing some of the biggest reforms in decades with better pricing for investors. sonali basak joins us. what do we know about these potential changes so far? sonali: it will be interesting to see how they draw comments from companies and investors. we know they are trying to improve on best execution. to make sure that after the meme stock frenzy we saw that retail traders have their prices executed at the best possible. will this save them money? sec calculates it will. but look at bloomberg intelligence, for example, he says he's not sure, according to his analysis, that it will help retail investors when it comes to how options are ordered on the exchange rather than funneling through wholesalers.
now this is not attacking the practice of payment for order flow head on, like we initially wonder the sec had hinted they might do. what they might do now is start a process in which these companies are able to auction for the best possible price where they can bid for retail orders. again, a lot of debate that this is up for. we saw some companies sue the sec a little bit earlier, a couple of weeks ago or so, about the processes themselves, but we will see how it plays out into next year. guy: big companies are involved and as you hinted at, they won't take this lying down. how much of this actually gets through to our reality, do you think? sonali: some of it? at the end of the day, as you know, market structure is constantly evolving and it has been a while since this
particular market structure way of being has been addressed. that said, the big argument being made here by the people already in the industry, these are robust american markets, the most liquid and robust in the world. the payment for order flow system, it has helped to create a low-cost of entry for retail investors and has created a whole new way of trading. what has it done? rock many people to the market. the argument is why fix a system that isn't broken. alix: speaking of broken, you are down there at the senate and you spoke to elizabeth warren, what did you learn? sonali: her take was interesting. i spoke to senator warren and senator brown as well and they both brought up the treasury department and the cryptocurrency industry in terms of setting up a sweeping framework and firm your
perspective she distinctly said to me that she is worried about budgets next year and the ability of the sec and the treasury to crackdown in the space and for the treasuries in particular as it pertains to money laundering, she introduced a new bill today regarding the crypto industry. guy: great work there, sonali basak, joining us from d.c. this is bloomberg. ♪
with two year treasury yields, very sensitive to fed policy, down four points. no bid for the dollar, that index is down 2/10 of 1% as we await what really jerome powell is going to say and we are looking a little bit at a rally today that started yesterday when we got those cpi figures, so let's take a look at what futures have done. as you can see it was a dramatic move yesterday. it actually started a few minutes before, which is interesting. as you can see, it faded a bit and we are rebuilding it but all told we are up only 1.3% as we wait for 3:00 p.m., 2:30, jerome powell telling us what it looks like going forward. looking at the year to date performance of treasuries and the essence 500. bonds are not much better, index of treasuries down 11 sent. guy: yeah i think we are up 9%
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>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power westin. ♪ -- balance of power with david westin. ♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters to our audiences across television, radio we are waiting -- welcome to balance of power. i'm david whiston. we are waiting for the fed announcement on the decision. i think i know 50 basis po