slower gains in u.s. employment costs pave the way for a quarter-point hike by the fed today. stocks and futures are mixed before the decision. the u.k.'s worst industrial action for decades shuts schools and cripples its rail network as half million people strike over pay. credit suisse will not accept adani bonds as collateral, as scrutiny continues. it is fed day. huge expectations in terms of what the fed will do and how that could move markets. for the moment, cautious. a similar move in asia. encouraging signs indicate that for the u.s., this is mainly wage cost data undershooting forecasts. but the u.s. housing market continues to cool.

another report highlighted consumer confidence unexpectedly fell. but that together and it means we could see a much more cautious fed. it is set to unveil a to five basis point increase. investors are parsing jay powell's note to give us indication of what he will do next. equity futures unchanged, slightly on the upside, gaining 1.2% higher. it is really the foreign exchange where we will see the biggest moves. watch for sterling, 1.23, as we have the biggest strike today in the u.k. in a decade. schools are closed and 475,000 people will strike. s&p futures also unchanged. we will talk about decision day. we had an interview with jeffrey gundlach, and bank of america, talking about fed funds rates. crude oil at $79.35.

mark, good morning, you are looking at u.s. data as we await the fed decision? mark: i want to show you two charts to put the decision in context. the core pce chart is the redline, the highest measure year on year over the last almost 30 years. that is up to .6%, we are at 4.4% now, still more than double the inflation target. two conclusions to draw. the last time we saw something like this was in the terrible inflation of the 70's and 80's. the second conclusion is, 30 years since we have seen this, this means most economists, traders, and investors have not really actively professionally worked during an era of higher inflation, which clouds of the judgment. this chart might suggest powell will be hawkish today.

but the next chart is core pce minus the upper bound of the fed funds rate. we finally got back to 0%, actually -0.08%. this is the december reading, as of today, that will be negative, inflation will be below the upper bound as measured by core pce. that sounds like a good sign. the only time we went as high as last year was in the mid-70's when we had the horrible stagflation cycle. another conclusion is during the subsequent period, after voelker controlled inflation where you got used to the idea that policy rates should be above inflation, because inflation was the big threat to growth. then we transitioned in the mid to thousands, hammered home by the 2008 crisis where we only worried about deflation, and it was assumed rates would be below inflation. many traders today assume that will be the case now. now that this is near 0%, they

are saying fed, give us support. perhaps this is not the era, this is more like the era we should think about where growth is ok. the bigger third is not deflation but inflation, and we should get used 20 world where it is normal for policy rates to average a couple percent above inflation. for that to happen, inflation needs to either continue collapsing at a tremendous pace, or we will see more rate hikes later this year. the jury is out. francine: mark cudmore will be all over this. joining us is valentine ainouz, the deputy head of developed market research at amundi institute. what does the fed mean for the developed market? valentine: we expect the height to be 25 points, in line with market expectation. there is a significant decline

in three-month and six-month inflation. at the same time, we expect the fed to continue to deliver an okay speech. we expect jerome powell to say we will have higher rates for longer, the job is not done for inflation. what is really important is not the terminal rate, i think it will be five, 5.20 5%, we are there. what is important is how long with let fed maintain interest rates in [indiscernible] territory? when will the fed shifted its focus from inflation to growth? francine: the problem, we heard from jeffrey gundlach, the markets have gone from four hikes of 75 to 50 in december, to now possibly 25. for the markets believe a fed pivot?

will jay powell pushback against that? valentine: it was market expectation. really we think the market is too optimistic where the fed will cut rates. we expect the first rate cut at the beginning of 2024. the market remains very tight in labor. we continue to have a strong labor shortage in leisure and hospitality. and wage growth has signs of moderation, but it is still not in line with inflation that can remain sustainably up 2%. the other point that is a major uncertainty is the impact of the reopening of the chinese economy. on top of that, calling for

transitory inflation was a bad move for the fed. they cannot be wrong two consecutive times. we see lower pressure on the fed, but we expect the fed to continue to remain cautious. and the market at some point will have to adapt. francine: for the moment markets are too optimistic about a fed pivot? billy see correction in markets after we hear from jay powell? valentine: i'm not so sure the market will listen to jay powell. the market is confident when it is looking at the economic activity and inflation. but at some point, we will have some correction to be better aligned with what the fed will do. what is interesting in the u.s. is growth is going down.

inflation is going down. maybe what the market is underestimating is the impact of monetary tightening on growth. on this, the market is a bit too optimistic. francine: we talked about core inflation, wage inflation, some of the other things in terms of terminal rate. where do you see financial conditions, and how could that impact the market's thinking about what jay powell says? valentine: financial conditions are easing. this is another risk for jerome powell if we have too much easing in financial conditions. if we look into details, conditions are easing, but nonfinancial conditions are tightening to some extent. and real yields are also in restrictive territory across the curve. yes, we have some tightening financial conditions but maybe

later in the year, the picture could change. so far, the impact of monetary tightening on corporate fundamentals has been limited because companies have cash checking related during covid, and refinancing rates were low in 2022, but this will change and this year, companies will have to issue more at at a higher rate. that could also change the picture. francine: thanks so much for joining us, valentine ainouz, debbie head of developed market research at amundi institute. we have individual stocks. credit suisse is one to keep an eye on. we had two scoops on it, one on how they are planning to deal with credit suisse first boston. the other on how they will deal with adani bonds they are holding. we are going into earnings season, novo nordisk one to keep.

they forecast record profit. this is fueled by expectations on their drugs to deal with obesity. glaxosmithkline increasing .6%. credit suisse has stopped accepting adani bonds as collateral for margin loans. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: welcome back to the

open. 12 minutes into the european trading day. the picture is of markets trying to figure out what the fed does next. 25 basis points now priced in. we look at some data points, valerie tytel with the four charts you need to know about, wage growth, some of the inflation, and what we know about financing additions. but the main question is are the markets going to take this as a pivot, and how much will jay powell push back against that? credit suisse has stopped accepting bonds of gautam adani's group of companies as collateral for margin loans. scrutiny of the indian tit an's finances is increasing. this is the first indication that something with adani could

hit the financial community further afield here in london and zurich. >> credit suisse private bank is no longer accepting collateral, they cut it down to 0% in any of his companies. it was a mixed picture because it was the first bank to do this. but it raises more and more questions. it is a clear reminder that adani is not out of the woods despite raising $2.5 billion yesterday. francine: do we know the relationship of credit suisse? i don't know whether it is loans. can you explain up there is a big margin call on the product, could it take banks down with them? >> credit suisse is saying wealthy people who might hold shares in adani and want to borrow against them, credit suisse used to say you can hand over the shares and you can get 75% value as a loan, now it is saying we will take nothing on that.

we understand other banks are providing that kind of product. it is isolated. you wouldn't expect anything systemic. but if you look at the share price turmoil, it could easily spread. i am looking at what could pop up next because surely, other banks will look at this and go, maybe we should be more risk off. francine: what happens next? >> all eyes will be on the stock market. adani has fallen today about 10%. that is a problem because a lot of these loans, not just credit suisse, will be tied to the stock value. if the stock keeps dropping, you might see more margin calls. what adani needs to do is reassure investors to make sure shares stop falling. hindenburg is saying, guess what, it will keep falling and this will be a bigger problem. francine: you when the teams are heading the founds trying to

figure out exposure. we know evermore banks having direct exposure to adani? >> most banks are saying, nothing to see here. so, the best sense i have is for big european banks, it is hundreds of millions perhaps in exposure, but no one has come on the record and said this is it. there is probably more skeletons in the closet and we will find out in due course. francine: coming up, the u.k.'s rail network grinds to a halt. how can the government bring the latest industrial action to an end? we will have more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: welcome back to the open. 18 minutes into the european trading day. there is one thing to look at, it is decision day for the fed. we look at core inflation, it has moderated. wage inflation has also moderated. our financial conditions too loose for jay powell? and we look at market pricing of the terminal rate, widely expected a 25 basis point hike from the fed. nearly half a million u.k. workers will walk off the job as part of the biggest coordinated strike in a decade. significant disruption is

expected with futures, civil servants, train drivers and border workforce workers taking part. tom is at kings cross in london where he is joined by a guest. tom: good morning. around half a million people will strike here at kings cross, a major transport hub for the capital of the u.k., where we will see just 20% of services across the u.k. running in terms of railway services. as you mentioned, we are pleased to be joined by the assistant general secretary for the trades union congress, which has played a significant role in today's action. the biggest strike action arguably in a decade in the u.k.. kate bell joining us now. thank you for your time. today's action, what does it do to move you closer to the goals you hope to achieve? >> we are having a day of action

about protecting the right to strike. the government is ramming through legislation through parliament that would fundamentally restrict that fundamental british liberty. we are showing how strong the support for the right to strike is in the u.k. today. many public sector workers are standing up for pay and conditions. we hope industrial action will make the government listen, realize it needs to negotiate and give workers the pay rise they deserve. tom: the government response, they are sticking to this line, if they go with double-digit pay rises that are demanded by many unions, it will only entrench inflation and cause greater pain for households. kate: that argument has been comprehensively demolished. pay in the public sector is rising at half the rate in the private sector. what unions are asking for is negotiation about decent pay rises after a decade of pay

restraint. there is no evidence we are in a risk of a wage price spiral, or that giving futures, civil servants and rail workers a decent pay rise will fuel inflation which as we know is coming from global factors. tom: it is tricky to quantify the economic damage. the cbr has an assessment of 1.7 billion pounds. the u.s. hospitality sector says it will hit their sector at 2.5 billion pounds. is there a limit to the economic damage the unions are prepared to inflict across this economy? kate: you should be asking the government that question. businesses tell us they don't understand why government is not negotiating with unions. but we see across the private sector is industrial action, and a lot of tough negotiations this year. but we've seen businesses negotiating with unions and coming to some decent pay

settlements which were award workers. businesses are asking, why are government not capable of negotiating the same pay rises as public sector workers deserve? tom: what is your assessment of where negotiations stand? talks are happening across a number of sectors with different unions. is the needle moving at all, or is the government digging in? kate: i am not across the detail of everything on negotiation. those are unions conducting them directly. one of the worrying things is the government still seems to refuse to negotiate on pay. the prime minister and chancellor who have the power to unlock these disputes have gone missing in action. we have asked them repeatedly to sit down with us. they don't seem concerned about the damage this is causing to public-sector workers and our public services. tom: many workers striking on picket lines today will not be receiving pay today. there is a point surely, where

workers will have to go back to work. they can't strike indefinitely because of the hit to their own personal finances. kate: it's a tough decision for everyone to strike. one they will have thought carefully about. but they are at the point where they feel there is no other option. they have tried negotiating. the teacher's were raising these issues last summer, and the successive education secretaries refused to talk to them. so this is a difficult decision for those workers today, but they have taken it because they have been pushed to the last resort. tom: today is the first day of coordinated union action in this period. can we expect further coordinated action from the t.u .c. and other unions in the months ahead? kate: every decision is a democratic decision for the members. we are asking for the government to negotiate decent pay rises. that is what we need to stop

industrial action and get people to pay they deserve. tom: not ruling out further coordinated action. kate: every union takes its own decision about whether to strike or not. those discussions are ongoing, and it is up to the government to come forward with a credible pay offer. tom: thank you for your time, kate bell, assistant general secretary of the trades union congress giving a sense of how the unions are thinking about industrial action today and what they want to hear from the government. francine: tom, great interview. thanks for joining us. the announcement at that train station stresses me out. good luck to all of the commuters. several pharmaceutical giants are reporting today, including novo nordisk forecasting record profit. joe easton from our equities team joins us. >> we've got three big pharmaceutical stocks today.

novartis looking like it is a bit lower. that looked strong this morning when i first looked at it. their eps was beating by $.10. but citigroup analysts saying that was underwhelming. some of their arthritis and spinal treatments not beating analyst expectations. that's taking the sting out of the top line between head. the other was novo nordisk, it is around 2% of the index, 300 $20 billion in market cap, that's doing really well because of their obesity drug. this is flying off the shelves. they're competing with eli lilly and pfizer in the u.s. it's been keenly anticipated. it promises to shave 50% off a person's body weight. that stock up 1.5% which is a pretty big day for a stock of that size.

the third one is in the u.k., glaxosmithkline, a bit of a beat on the top line. their eps is expected to rise as much as 15% this year. known for their shingles vaccine. that stock only up .2% as we can see on the screen. they are waiting for some key approvals to come through. one of their iron deficiency treatments. and also, some respiratory drugs have not gotten approval in europe. the big overhang for that one is the zantax litigation that caused a storm last year. investors waiting on the sidelines to see how that comes through. francine: later on, we will speak to the novo nordisk chief executive. ♪

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francine: welcome back to the open. 30 minutes into the european trading day. cementing the downshift.

so lower gains in u.s. employment costs pave the way for a quarter-point hike by the fed today. winter of discontent. the uk's worst industrial action shots schools and cripples the rail network as half a million people strike over pay. credit suisse will not accept adani bonds as collateral for margin loans as scrutiny over the indian titan's empire grows. the selloff seems to be extending. there is quite a lot going on overall, but a pressure point is what is happening in adani. our reporters are working the phones, about the margin calls that could ensue from adani. u.s. stocks and futures are mixed ahead of the fed. we have some key economic data and company earnings. but it is the policy meeting from the fed that will

overshadow everything. we did see wage cost data undershooting forecasts. we have separate figures showing u.s. the housing market cooling. and consumer confidence unexpectedly falling. the picture is probably a 25 basis point hike. these are the groups moving the most. we have some earnings reporting. overall, we will go on to the meeting tomorrow from the bank of england and the european central bank. travel and leisure, auto parts, and financial services gaining .8%. one group out of the 20 on the downside, personal consumer, down .1%. the fomc meeting is finally here. another downshift on in the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis widely expected. it is all about jay powell's

opening statement in the press conference. joining us is valerie tytel. the decision guide to the fed, what are you watching today? >> to key thing off the bat is in the third paragraph of the opening statement, any ongoing increases in the fed funds rate. this is the statement from december. it seems a little stale now, especially in light of the wage inflation moderation, and the moderation in core inflation. so some evolution is likely. possibly acknowledging the gap between the fed funds rate and the peak has shrunk. but there is belief that he will push back yet again on these cuts. perhaps some addition in this opening statement that he intends to leave the policy rate at sufficiently restrictive levels for an extended period of time. that is another addition the markets could react to in the opening statement. francine: hawkish or dovish

surprises, water markets betting? >> for a hawkish surprise, he will have to convince markets the may hike is to live. he could dismiss the recent drop in inflation, almost doubting it, because the labor market has stayed so strong. he could repeat that the fed has some ways to go. if you wanted to be dovish, he will have to open the door for a may pause. he could acknowledge the drop in inflation is welcome. that along with the softening in economic data. he could say rates are approaching a sufficiently restrictive level, and declare yet again that they are data-dependent. this would not be declaring victory but leaving the door open for a pause in march. francine: bloomberg's valerie tytel. we're joined by samuel zief, head of fx strategy at jp morgan

private bank. it is fed day, are you hyped? the market believes there will be a pivot, how aggressively will jay powell pushed back? sam: it is not in the fed interest to have financial conditions easing this early. if they have their way, they will have one or two more hikes, and financial conditions will be flat and buy them some more time. because of how restrictive policy has gotten, the labor market will crack around the turn of the year. on a plane that will start to rise, but that together with wage data, by the end of the year, the fed will be on their way toward easy policy. francine: financial conditions could change everything. what are you expect from powell? kate: i do think you will push back on the amount of pricing, the amount of cuts that are priced in the market. he will leave the door open to further hikes, particularly if financial conditions ease in

response to today's meeting. francine: are you expecting easing or a cut? sam: cuts by the end of the year predicated on the economy weakening aggressively. francine: is this something they have tried to engineer, or if they cut, have a overhyped? -- over hiked? sam: they waited too long last year to hike rates. inflation is overshot. we and the fed don't think inflation can sustainably stay at 2% unless the labor market cools. to cool the labor market, you need the unemployment rate to rise. francine: what are you expecting dollar to do? sam: today it is anyone's guess. the weakening trend i don't think is going anywhere. if you think about the global environment and how it has evolved the last eight weeks, you still have cooling inflation and a weakening economy in the u.s., but global growth is on a

better footing with china reopening. europe avoids recession we think in 2023 now that gas prices have fallen significantly. we have always thought the u.s. would catch down to the rest of the world in 2023, but the rest of the world is also catching up. so we think euro-dollar heads to 1.15, the dollar has another 5% to go in 2023. francine: the china reopening is seen as a positive. we see more trade, so the supply chain constraint can ease off. sam: onnet, it is probably slightly disinflationary rather than inflationary. it will be interesting for europe. but when we think about the u.s., because it will help supply chains it is disinflationary. for the u.s., it is key, when you narrow in on the type of inflation in the u.s., it is core services, x housing, the labor market driven things. in europe, the labor market is less tight, inflation is driven

by energy prices. so if the china reopening puts pressure, it could be inflationary in europe. francine: we could have reached a peak in session in the u.s., but food inflation is not something to forget, it is putting pressure on the cost of living in key parts where you could see in the economy we are not expect in. sam: i don't mean to dismiss it. we have sliced and diced all the inflation data, and we are focused on the labor market, almost laser focused. francine: what is your target for dollar until the end of the year? sam: euro-dollar, 1.15, we were looking for the u.s. to catch down to the rest of the world. but over the last four to six week, considering how the environment has shifted, we are marking that up to 1.15, on dxy .97. whenever i say the dollars going to we can.

the core of our view is narrower rate differentials between the u.s. and other developed markets. particularly, developed markets that had to of it if -- that had negative yields for a long time in europe. we think that leads to investor rebalancing after very heavy u.s. overweights. that benefits yen, swiss franc, gold, euro. the global growth environment is improving. when you look at our models, the dollar is already in betting a -- embedding an improvement in the global growth outlook. the best short dollars are francine: --francine: are we underestimating the u.s. debt ceiling? sam: i don't think we are underestimating because everybody is focusing on it. this stage is set perhaps the most contentious negotiations since 2011. i won't prognosticate on what the outcome is, i have to assume

something is worked out a eventually. but we did see dollar underperformance against say for think currencies -- safe haven currencies in the months leading up to it. francine: what are you expecting ecb to do tomorrow? sam: 50 basis point is totally baked in. that is not much of a surprise. president lagarde, her messaging for the next couple of meetings will be the most important. we got mixed inflation data, but risks in europe are skewed to the upside in the near term, so they will maintain a hawkish stance. they will get the terminal rate to 3.5%. francine: can the euro zone avoid recession? sam: it is on the back of gas prices falling considerably. that doesn't mean there won't ever be recession, and if the ecb goes into restrict of

territory it will pressure growth. we had recession in 2023 in the early part but we have taken that out. francine: that is the head of global effect strategy at j.p. morgan private bank. shares of snap plunged in post-market-rate after the company forecast its first-ever quarterly revenue decline. we break down the numbers and see what is ahead for the tech sector next. this is bloomberg. ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done.

francine: welcome back to the open. we are 43 minutes into the european trading day. we are seeing more gains than we saw in the open where we were pretty much flat. but the focus is on earnings. on the fed, what the fed will do. market pricing a 45 basis point hike. it is not only the opening statement but the subsequent speeches that will give us an indication of tone from jay powell. snap forecasting its first-ever quarterly revenue decline citing a flurry of changes to advertising products that may be disruptive to its business. it sent the share price plunging as much as 60% in aftermarket straight -- 16 percent in aftermarket trade. snap's forecast is a sector-wide

problem especially for those that rely heavily on ad revenue. >> absolutely. we are seeing snap is a potential bellwether for what is to come for the other tech earnings that rely heavily on ad revenue this week. to look at snap specifically for a second, it is worth pointing out that snap has a very young user base. while they have seen a lot of user growth, they have seen that outside the u.s. specifically. so a lot of that growth is potentially people without the same buying power as people inside the u.s. that is a concern for the company. for snap, it is a question of how they turned user growth into ad revenue. but if you look at how it affects the broader sector, we're seeing it already. last night in extended trading, whilst snap saw a drop, so did mehta and pinterest, companies

that we are looking to in terms of their ad revenue, whether they make the sales they wanted to for this quarter and the last quarter. francine: you called me very young, i am a snapchat user. what is the word with mehta? -- meta? >> when it comes to medic, ad revenue is the core of their business model. from 2015 until 2021, every second dollar spent on online ads was spent on google and meta. that has shifted somewhat as other people are getting in on the game. amazon, for instance, bolstering ad revenue. also, apple. with apple, there is also other aspects, a huge amount of ad revenue online is based on data. apple managed to change its user agreements to cause other tech companies that use iphones to

provide those products and collect data from their users. they have now pushed for users to opt out of this data collection, or aspects of that on apple product. and apple is looking into this ad revenue. all this means the typical legacy players in the online ad revenue space, meta and google, are being squeezed out. not completely, they are still incredibly powerful within this space, but it is a concern going forward. francine: thank you so much, our uber technology reporter aggi cantrill in berlin. let's get the first word news. alice: widespread industrial action will close schools and cripple britain's rail network today. close to half a million union members will strike demanding pay rises to catch up to soaring inflation. a walkout by futures will see most schools shut or partly shut with several major train stations in london also completely closed.

bloomberg has learned the private banking unit of credit suisse has stopped accepting adani bonds as collateral for margin loans. it was listed as a backer in adani's rebuttal of the hindenberg research fraud allegations. it is another sign that scrutiny of the indian tycoon's empire is growing. adani has denied the allegations and other banks continue to lend against its debt. the u.s. is to supply ukraine with long-range artillery as part of a new $2 billion package of military assistance. the new aid, which is unlikely to advance weapon such as long-range with silas, comes as he prepares for a new russian offensive. china's home sales continue to slump in january, despite extra stimulus and the end of covid zero. data suggests the 100 biggest real estate developer saw you home sales dropped almost a

third from a year earlier. the month was a key test as many had their first chance in years to hunt for properties during the new year holiday. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm alice atkins, and this is uber. francine: coming up, india planning to boost capital spending by 33%. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> each year, four of the regional fed bank presidents rotate out as voters, and four new ones come in. leaving this year jim bullard of st. louis, esther george of kansas city, loretta mester of cleveland and boston's susan collins. all except collins are considered hawkish. coming in, the new president of the chicago fed, austin goolsb y, patrick harker, minneapolis president and all are considered dovish or somewhat centrist. there is little difference between the views. 17 of the 19 members saw the fed's target rate reaching over 5% by the end of this year.

and nine c rate cuts in 2023. the voters change, but the policy remains the same. francine: that was michael mckee on who's in and he was out of the fomc. we have a great decision day guide on our website. we will push that out on our social media channels. the federal reserve likely pushing back against any suggestion it will halt interest rate increases. that is the view of jeffrey gundlach. we had a lot of time with him yesterday, interesting to see how he sees traders positioning in terms of dollar until the end of the year. the other big story is the budget in india. prime minister narendra modi has been commenting on the full year 2024 budget. this is what stocks are doing overall. indian stocks rallied, and then they lost ground. higher government spending on roads, ports and infrastructure while keeping the deficit under

check have been starving optimism that measures will lead to higher consumer spending and a boost of economic growth. let me remind you how much they are expecting capital spending to be by, it is by more than a third, potentially 122 billion dollars. capex spending will increase 33% in the fiscal year. it will in vest in an protector to boost economic growth. >> the world has recognize the indian economy as a great star. our current year's economic growth is estimated to be at 7%. this is the highest among all the major economies. this is in spite of the massive slowdown globally, costs by covid-19, and the war.

the indian economy is therefore on the right track. and despite a time of challenges, heading towards a bright future. francine: joining us now is bloomberg's senior editor. was the budget in line with expectations? >> yes, broadly, as you pointed out. the budget sticks the course when it come's to fiscal consolidation, this is something global investors were looking at. the finance minister has delivered on that, she has had the fiscal deficit this year will be 6.4%, as expected, and will reduce to 5.9% next year, again as anticipated. that is good news. what was a surprise was the enhanced spending on infrastructure. you ran through the numbers. that infrastructure spending is the first part of the budget towards the upcoming election

and should have a multiplier effect on the economy, create consumption and jobs. it is spending on roads, a variety of other different infrastructure projects, including construction and railways. third, it is a big election for prime minister narendra modi. there were also tweaks made to the personal income tax regime that will benefit the middle income taxpayer in india. these are the three big takeaways from the budget. francine: that is a much, menaka on the latest for the budget in india. "surveillance: early edition" is up next. the big theme today, not only the fed, but what inflation will do overall. markets gaining .2%. four key questions to look at, core inflation moderating, what does it mean for powell going forward, wage inflation also

lower-than-expected. financial conditions, and then we look at the terminal rate. we have not only a full lineup of great casts talking about the fed decision, we also talked about the dollar. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this is blue bird "surveillance: early edition" with francine lacqua. francine: good