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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  July 7, 2009 4:00am-6:00am EDT

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i'm christininn. inin australia, t t ba s say th local economyyssstabilizingss it keeps tetes on ld. i i'm rs s stgate inn europe. tension buildsds aadad of the g in ity. ototters hitththstreets and esestis arise oveve the s smit preparedness. >> andnd i s stt wapner in thth u.s. a call i iseing made from a second s smulus packagege from member ofprprident obama's economic advisory panel. hellolo and w welme to nbc' "worldwide excxcngnge." now, we arare just t ititin for prprescoconfence in moscow. thee n newcoconoc school
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moscowow president obama is e too give a speech faiairl shortly. pu your noticeinin if hee turns upupwewe'lbe going strtraitt ththeras he r rndnds up t ruian talks w wit president dmeet theoryry medvedev.. the cnbnbc ftsee30300 is jtt of pot,t,s you can see. eueuroan stock m mkekets are of h houinto the trarangng day. the fee 1 is up marginally algg wh the xexeaa dax. resoururcearare slightly strong alonong thth banks, fananals, chemical servicess a strongnger at the momentt and 're seeing weakakne i in telecoms, auauto health chiropracacto f foo and bevevera.. on the currerenc markets, ththen hahas enen edged up a agast th eu/sterling today. dollar/y/y, , do to 95.17.7. ro/dollar, low 3939. stlilingollar, 1.6199. we were sort of lowow 61s
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yeststery.y. just below 1.62 at t thoment and eo is still around the .86 mark against t unund, christstin hey, ross. go to see yoyou. investors aretitill casting doubts about the speed of f th global rerevevery some e earngngs coming inelping to p prodede some supppptt to t markets. heheren ia, let's cheheck some those markets out. the nikkei 22 ended do 0.0... thee kospi up 4%4% lackluster traradeoioi on. thee shanghaiiarart down 1.1%. bit o profit kiki.. thee hang seng is d dn 6%. unable to hold ono gains ading most of thehe seioion. imimbi back up to yeererdas eep declinine. up 0.6%. in tererms of oyle, crude oil right nonow trading a at cents wer, $63.73 a barrel. that's for memex. brent is trading ler at $63.75 a barrel, downwn cecent
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sct,t, how arthe u.s.utures looking? >>i, ristine. go to see you thismorning. u.s. fututeses are below irir vaee across the boboar lilighdadayfor da, bute are lookokg g ahd to r ratrr criticl eaings. thererarare me treasury auctions day that we'll be wchchin closely.y. but you take aooook here at the fa value,anand you'll see th the dow, th nasdaq and the s& fufutus are below fair value.e. modest losss r r easdaq and the s&p.p. thee dow f futes are down about 38 points belowow f fr vae. t't's ke aook at the bund yield, as well, today. germany, 33 the%. d i mentioned thee treasurury auctioio t thawill be on t for ththisweek. demandnds ee f faiy y go of lat. we'll sesee where t ttteads today. but theenen year isatat 3.5454%. let's tatake look a a goldld,as well this morning and seeeehehee it is trading g ahdd ofof t u u ststoc market today. ot gold do .2, t the.
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christinin >> jninings for market strarate, , eno.o. h hav rba keepsates on hold, lklkg about optimismn n th globalal ececomy, pticularly ina, but on the other r hahand e have the japanese yen ririsi o risk version. is there potenenalal for these green shoooots turur to blkk rorootinin t third quarter?? >> i think t theve been pretty blblk all along or phaps i've become rather colorblblin whatat i men by thahat is that employment keeps risining and it s s to keep rising jtt b becse there are -- according toto t economic clockckwewe he an exssss sice of gogos,s, which is lylyoioingo ininteifif in our view, the economic time have toworsesen, so t tsese gre oots will morph into blacack
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shoots verery dly,ululmiting inin aoctober crash. thatat p prey severe.. joining us now f f market panelists, ankle b bel snyder. you heard what enzio j jus sai. he's expecting an octobob market ash and is expectiti green oots to tnn to black shoots in the third ararte what's yourr feeeeli on whereree markets arare head? >> that soundssvery dark he. i would s the green rootsts will get a a lileleore brownish. and i think a crash is in the short-tetermififfilt to see cacausthe main problem i a t t of vestors arere still lol in thehemarket. so where ould a m mai didippointment be? ththinthat's the key element going forward. if theenenment was bullish and the market w w wll ahead,d, yes i could d se ts.s. i think invesestore moreware that the grereen will turn
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brbrowsh and it should not result in a crash accccorngngo our reelel. w we' ining take aa pausese there bebecae e esident obama is about to eaeain moscow. enzizi i i d defitity want to pk up on this o oober cshshtheory, just holold a aecond. therere a are areewewe going to go to that no? okayay. we'll just wait for himim. cacan jujust pick up on y you october crcras theoryquickly? that's quite a a statement. why? yes.s. as stupid a it sounds, thisis cacausit -- this is nororlllly when crashesccur inoctober. i cannot tell uu why. most people cacann t tl yo secondndlyttugugh, i think that the -- w whawill become ryry, ry apparentbyhen i is at the so-calallelobal recoveryy just is nottoioi to happen the ththe vernments have runun out ammunititi.. they cannot keep o on stimululi the eecomimies onop of w whi you wilil find chchinititse will be runninin ot
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ammunition. it never was that pipill of wowod d growth. it cannott be. forget india. itit's nonogogointo pppp. wh you're going to findd is that a alsas a thd point, all ofhehesehehe b proprietary the desks, having made meyey off the run in theemarket,, now will dedede it's timime to p phh the marketet dn n ango short. ose t are thehe ree factors thth i believe will leaddtoto a crcras >> it'ss quite strongg stuff, anko. cacan u envision that scenario? >> these are ieresting, the different point t ofieies t tha hear. y y look at thesian and european pepepeive, i think th seseimimen i is more cautiou europe. we've seen vyy strong rallies inasia. e s stitime is more mederere inin continental europe. interesting wass fananal timime germrman publication yeststdada which showed invnvesrsrs here i cocoinental europe,hehey e 73%
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bubullh on iaian equities,, l son eueuroanan equities and 25 is beisis on european quities. if you see a crash fromanan ememgigingarket perspective, i could really undereranand that then you haveacenario whehere you cocod d se d dappointment an i i thk k e argument genen and disasappntntnt will start. if you really havee only bullis or neututll mket participanants especially inn as,, you're a apt to atrtron correct certainly reretive to the s sma deveveloenenmarkets likee eopop and d ee u.s. > eenz,,t's scott wapapr r in the u.s. a strong correctctnn a a crash are twoentirely diffefere things.. i i n't think any colleagaguere going to let he off the hohook that easasywith callingg for an october crcras and one of the reasons beingg t thas genererly when crashes happen, i in octobr i i thk we would like more from you on why you think it's going
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toto b the dirchbls betetenen a correction andnd arara. >>anan crash. gogood question. well, dear, what perception there. my rereas iss because i thihink that the grorohhxpxptations by that time willcocoletely have boboomomedout. in o oth w wor, they will just se any floorboaoass that theyey'vhahaand peopleilill finally accccep that the employment rates he to keep risingng, atathe employment hato keep rising globally andnd that will l ma earningngs expectationsns fllthrough the floor, not go t thrghgh the roo. one is the earningsgs expececti verytrtrony beieing d dowraded because you have rising unemployment thahat e excs supp of gos in r econonom clock just coming through h rsrse d worse and wowors on topop o of whichch you canno discount t the days, contrary o my ys, doingngthis kindofof ufuff.
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you cannot discocoun the prior for pryy p tear tradingooks atajajor tradidi hououse t tt haveone a lotot of -- made a lot ofof money ofthe bullunun that we've e enen sce march ofhis year. they will be now circling t t wagon n fo something else to mae moneney off. and ththenlnl thing thahat' goi to be o theres to have mamajo m maj short positions on. >> ihohoht president obama w was going to steppto the electricc turn there. peperhss tt's taking a athther sesend.. rossss, mm hesitantoror aecond to jump intoo a ather question here if it loooolike the president isoioingo step to a podium for asecoco.. but it's different to hehearror zio on these predictionon of an october ccshsh, for certain. doou have any thoughts o on atat? >>'ll just interrupt you if yopresident turns up. enzio wawa anan mamade the poi he could seett perhaps
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happening g asisian markets because we had a touch of aunun up. aryou saying obobly or a you saying wititnn the asian market that t uu cor?r? > no. think it's goioingoo start in the u.s. i think that the u.s. is s sti the singng ddetmimint. i've never been a a buyer - -- ving lived in america too o ma years,s, iee never been a buyer of this v vie that the w wldldi decoupling. anything, thee aanan crash will be much more muteded than eupe. i don'n'ththin the argument -- t least i wouldn't acceptpt it, jt ofththe-ff that the u.s.ill fall less bauau they've r ris less. in nything, i thinkk if the grgrth prospspec are worse, they ha t to be different from europe th the u u.s beusus guess what? e e scal pititio in those ononies are so much wse thanan out heherenn asiandnd they have to raise taxes, foror ststan. anko? >> y.. thfact that the has been a
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decoupling issue from a rformance point ofofviview i thinink f forhehe first timee i ve long time, asia y y markets and eopean mamarkss are trading to a v valtition i in premium mamarks. indeed, they a a ememerggg markrks s so they're mucuch rer volatile andnducuch re cyclical. d i think that is more than icicedin, very comparablele t whwhatou see in eueupe, that risky assetsndnd small cacaps ememerngng market plays,s, th ese were the assets performing very well. t only in the upturn in the e stst tee months, bubut also ini the last five to ten years. think that could be mee topic. defefenseses, ue chihi a and qualititystococ.. novartis, h hsysy mainin of t world, they're onn v valtion lows, the mbmber will didisaoioiment, probably investors will shift backntnto
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more quauatyty aststs, meaning delolod markets and especiaiall in markets, morore defensive sectctorananquality stockcks. it's diffificu t to e decoupliling we have seen a d decplplg if you lookatat t performance of the underlyingngararke andigig risk assets for this develeleded markrket >> anko,, thanks for that. enzio, thanknkyou, a a wewell f your thoughtht provoking -- a as gogoodo o ar from you. t tha you. >> right.t. wehihinkresident obama is jusust about t tospeak. let's hearar wt t has to say. t tha you very much. ththanyoyou much. cocongtulations, aksanand to the entire class of 2009, congratulations to y y.. i don't knknow if anynybo e els will meettheir futuree w wif or huananin class like i did, butt
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i'm see that you're alloing totoavave wonderful careers. want to acknowledge a a w w people that are hehere we have presidede mikhaelel gorbachav is here and i ianant eveverneneo give himim a rouou applauause i want to thahank sergei rbev, man boyoyco chairmanf f th board d d d arcadia borkavavhh is the presidedent of the a alu association ands d dngng an excellent jobbor presisintnt medvedev b becse he was in our meeting yesterday.
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it is aarereat honoror me to inin yat thenenew economic school.. michellele a i ire so pleased to be in m mosw ands somebododwhwho was born in hawaii, i'm glad to bebeerere july instead of jajaary. i know thahatnes is a y yngng scscho, , bu i speako o yo today with deep resespe forrussia's tiless heritage.e. ssssn wteters h heeelped us understand theheomomexities of ththe man expxpieienc andnd rerecoizize ernal truths. ruia's painters, composersrsand dancers s ha introroceced us to new forms of beauty. russia's scientiststs have ced diasas sought new frontiers s of progressnd helped us go to space.
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those are contributionshahaare not contained by russia's borders, assast as thohose borders are. ined, russia's'sererite has touchehed erery rner of the world and speaks tohe h humity thatat w share. that i iludes my own cub, whhh has bebeenlessed withth russian migrants for decades.. we've been enriched b r rsisian culture and hanced by russian cocoereratn. and as residenent washington, d.c., i continue benenef f fro theonontrutions of russssia,, spspecically fromlelexaer ovechkhkin we are very pleasesed h havhim in wasasngngto d.c. here a at nes, youou'v inherite this gatat culturall legacy, bu your focus onnconomics is nono le fundamental to the future humanity. as pushkikin said, inspiration
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needed in geoeomey y ju as much p poey. and toy,i wantararcularly to speak to thoseef f yo preparing to g graatat ur poise to be l lears in academia and induststry i finance andd government. but before y you move rward, itit's w worrereflting on what has already taken p pla during your y you l les. li president medvedev and mylf, you're not oldldnonoh to have w witssed t tararst hoss of t theolol war, wn hydrogen bobos s we tested in ththe atsphere and cldren drilildd fallout s sheers and we reached t the brinknk of nlear catastrophe. t t yoare the lastt generation born when the world wawas vivid. at that titime the americacaana soviet armys were stillll masse
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in europe, t traed andeaea to fit.t. the idealogical t tncnche of th stst century were roughly in ace. cocompition in everythingg from astrophysics t to aleleti was treated as a game. ififnene person won, then the other personn ha to lose. and thenen, withinn few s sho yeyes, the rlrld ast w was ceed to be. no m me no mimiakake, this change did not come from a o one nation. ththcold war rchched a conclusion becausese othth acactis of many nanatis s er mamany arars. and d beusus the peoplele ofrus and eastern europepe s sod up a decided thatat its e eould be peacef peaceful. wiwithhehend of the cold war, therere e e traordinary exexpeations for pepee e an osperity, for new arranangentnts among nationonanand w
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opportunitieies r r dividuals. and lee l periods of great change, it ss a timee of ambitious planans d d dless possssibititie but, of course, thingss d't't alwaysys wk k ouexactly as plpland. back inn 1993, shortly afrr ts school opened,nene nes ududt sued up the diffificuyy of change w whehe told a reporter, and i quote hh, the real world isisotot srationale as on paper. ththe al world is not soso rational a as o on par.r. ov two tumumulouou cades, atatruth has been rnrn ouou around t the world. great wealth has b bee creaead, but t itas not elilinanate vast pockets o crushing poverty.. poverty exister hhe, it exixiss in the united states a andt t exists all arorod d thworld. re people have g gon to the baballbox, butut t t many
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governments ststll fail to otott the rights of their r people. ideaealocaca s strgles have diminished, , t t th have been replacededyy conflicts over tribes andnd e e nittyndnd religion. a a man beingwith aomompur cacanolol the samame amomott of information stored i in ee russian statebrary, buthahat technology can also o beseseto do grereatararm. a n newrussiaia, the disasaeaearae of old political and d ecomomic rereririctns aft the endf the soviet unionon ought both opportunityty a hardship. a a feprosperere but manany mor didid t. there were t tou t tes. t the russianeoeopl showed strength and made sacacfifice d you acoeoefd hardrd-enene prprogss through a growing economyy and greater c cfidence and desestete painful times, n in eastern e eure and rsia are
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much betterffff today t tha 20 years agogo. we seeee ttt pgress here at s,s, a school f fnded witith westerer supuppo that is now distinctly ruruia, a acace of ararng and inquiui where the test of andea is not whhehe itss russisi or americanr european, but whetherert wowork abovovall, s s that progress inll of you. young people with a young century to shape a as u u e fit. your lifetime coincides with this area of tnsition. t t thk aboutut the queststio asked when this school w founded. at kind of future i r rsisia going toto have? at kind ofututur e e ruia and americica going to have tothth? what wororldrdrderill repepla e e co war? those questiononststildon't have cleaear swsws. and so nowow ty must be answered
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y you by your generationinin russssiainin arica and arorodd the e wwld. you gege to didid a wle i caotot awer those questions foyou, can spepe plainly out the future that americacass seseekg. america wants a strong, peaceful and prosperous ruruss.. this belelieisis r roodd inour rereect for the russisian peopl andd a srered history bebeeeeenr nation that't's eses bond competetioions despite our p pas rivalry,urur opopleerellies ithth greatest strugggg o of e last centurury. rececelyly, noted is when was in normandy. for justas menen from boston an birmingham risked a that they had to storm t tse bches and alale ose cliffs, soviet soldieiers from places like kik endured unimaginable hardships
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to pepel an invnvasnn and turn e e ti in the east. president john kennedy aid, noation h htory of battle ever suffered more than t t soviet union in ththe coco world war.r. a a we o on he this st,wewe also recognizethe future benefits that willllomome from rong and vibrant russisia. think ofofhehe issues that will define your ves. serity from nuclearar apons dd extremism,m, access to markrs and portunity, health and the environment, an internationalal system t tha otects s soveignty and human rights while promoting prosperityty. these chals dendnd global partnership and thatt p ptnershp llll b stronger if ssia occupies i i r rigful place as a grt t wer. yet unfortunatelelhere is sometimes asense thth old
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sumptions must prevail, old wawaysff ththinngng. onception of powerrthat is rooted in the past rhehethan in t thefuture.. there is the 20thh ctury view that the united states a and ruruss are destititoto be antagoninizeanan thahat strong russiar a strong americacaan onlysssser themselveves in opposisiti to onene another.r. and t the i a 19thenentu view that we are d dtitine to vi fo spirits of influence a and that great powerers mt f for competing blocks to lalancone another.r. these assumptions a wrong. in 20, , greatower does n not show strength byby dominating or demonizing oththcountries.s. ththedadays when e empes could eat sovereign statete as pieiee of a chessboard arere over. as i said i in cairo, given ou dependence, any wldld order that - -- given ou
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interdepenendee,e,ny world order that tries t to elatat oneatato or one group ofeople over anhehewill inevitably fail.. thth pursuit o power isoo longer a zero sumga. progress musust shared. and t thas why i have c caldd fr a recess inin relations b beten the unitededtatateand ruiaia ththisusust more than a fsh stt between the kremlin a the white housus though that is importrtt t ani've had eelelnt discussions wiwi b botyour presidenent d d ur prime mistster it must bebe stainedffort amononththe erican and russian peoplele to i ideifymumual teteres and expand dialogue anancocoopation that can pave e way to progress. ththisill not be easy. it d difcult to forge lasting g panenersp between rmrm dversaries. it hard to change habits that have beeeenngngraed in ourr gogovememes and our burereauacacs for decades, bubi believeve that on the fundament
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issues that wiwillhahape this century,y, aririca and russians arare common i ierests that fooform a basisis rr cooperatioio it is not f for me too d defe russiaia n natnal intntesestsbut i can tellll y a aut americicss common intntertsts and i thinin you'llll s we shaharecocomm grounds. first,memeri h an interestt inin reversing thespread of nuclear weapons anand preventing their use. in t theasast centuries,merica anand ssssianherited the power to destroyations and the understanding that using t tha powewer would ining abouturur o destruction. inin 2009, our inhnheranances difference. you and i don't havave to asksk whetheher ereran and russian leaders will respect a a balanc of terrrr.. we understand d thororric consequences of f anwawabetween ouour o o cotries. but weo have to ask this question.
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we have tosk whetherer tremists who havee killed innocecent civilians inewew yk andoscow willll show t tt same restraint. >>ououe listen to go a speech from president obamainin scow. we have e toeaea there. wewe'vgogot datata comining o o w moments time. heheays this mt t be sustained effort and h h sees great tetentl for increased cooperation with russia on susubjtsts sh as free trade and enerer.. we'll keep monitoring that fo you u rere on "worldwide exchange." christine.e. comingng u on "worldwide change," tokyo k knossososco ofofththe p spot in the world'd most expensive tyty 'l'll assesshohow cuenen flflucations have changed the raings this eaear. >> and weee g uk indusustrl productionon numbers coming outn just a few moments.
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> mm christine tan. in australia, the rrba says th local econonom inot as weak as earlier forecacast as itt keeps ininrest rates on hdd at 3%. >> i'm ross westgateoswewegate. in m mosw,w, psident obamama cas says the u unid d stes wants a strong, peacefull prorospouou russia. and i'm scott wapnpnern n th u.s.
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call for second stimululus packageess being cled for fromom a membmberff president oh bam in's's enonomi panel. we j jus g gotumumbe out o the k.k. ukuk manufuftuturi output dnn 5 on thehemonth, down.7.7% on thte arar. that iss weakererthan expected. we were looking for m may ininduririututpu to risise .2% n e month. theprpril manufactctining independndennunuer was revised to flat othe montnt and m min 1313.2 on the year. industrial production, , miss 0.6% on the montnt that i iseaeakethanththe expectd forecast o of usus 2 and min mimis s .3 soso that data is weaker than expected is j justataki serlg downwn oe e agn against the doar at the moment. sarah hhew,, senior economist at standard chartered is wh h us for reaeactn.n. sarah,h, it l loo likee sort ofe
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ruof better than expected dataa might be a aththe en >> yes. these are a bit o of a disappointment and theherere a render that theuk isstill in cession. wewe'vhahad me speculation t t whether ththe coconduarter may sesee ejennings of an upturn. thth contraction we're seeing i theukukbvbvioly isn't asadad as it wasasn n thfirst ququter. bu nevertheless, we still expect to s s n negive growth in e second quarter and i thinknk thesese gugureare goingngo o support at. > verer quickly wlb w wsesee tetensn of quantitataveveasasgg fromom t b banon thursday? we think we pbably willeeee extension to $150 billionon pounds. anththe may be mee to comee from beyonddthat. forr now, we e thkk that's wha the mpcay wll dedeci. >> sarah, stay withth s. we'll come bacac tyou in jt t few momentnts meme. thee ftse ccc global3000 is little sgygy yet againin today. we had a posititivclclosin the
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u.u. late last night. it's just what, up twopots. ititr near morore erer european s sto markets obably athe best levels o of e daday. ftse 100, ..4% u xetraaxax .3%, cac 40 u up .2%. flfl f forhe smi. eueuroololr is 3936. a littleeaker fromheherewe were yeyestday. doarar/y is still around thth 9595level, christine. >> we had a aixixed finish heren asiaia. you knowowwhwhat someme earnings cining in d that did hpp provideome support t the markets heherenn asia. the nikkei 2255 down 0.3%. the kospi issp 0.4%.%. ththe shanghai markeke down 1%1n prit taking. the hang sengng, too, is d dowon profit taking, d dow 0.7%.. ththe b bomy sensex down after yesterday's f fl fm m th d dee disappointininbubudg. overall, aixixed finish hereini
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iaia, scott. >> chchriinin let's take a loo atat h u u. futures arere s sha up. wewe ekedout aain ststery. so b bter thann expected nonmnmufufacring data was ou irly light on theeatat front today. no econonomirererts out, but seserm we have o o e eyen earnis and what layhead there. the dow futuresrere belowow fai vavalutoday. the n ndaq and the s s all w wh fairly most moveses to the dow side. leles s brg back s sar h hew who going to joinusus now to scuss the global ececony.y. e'e's senioreconomist, o of coursese, thth sndard chartered. sarah, w looked at wsese than expected n new out of theeukuk today. sosomef f e data o out of the u. of late hasas bn n beer than spec'd. whwho yr estimation i is likely to pull ttf this global recession firstst? d d wi thth be ablble leigh avave ererestf the world out? wewell i thinkwe're going to see the s.s. and the pulling out at aboutut t same ti..
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we have bobothconomies likely to exexpeenenceositive growth in the third quarter of this yeyear dd i think a l lot of the forwarard-okokg indndicorors ha bebe m movg in n thright directctio but at the e meme time, we'v'ved reminders that bototh economiei are still ruggling for the u.s. thempmpyment picture isis n going improve in the hry and we had aeminder that lasast thursday. the uk, the s secdd quarter lookoklilike it experienced another quarter of recession, that the economy -- ha alreadad turnedd positive.. having saiai that, the stimulus measure that's we've seenen bh in the uk a and in the u.u.s. h been sububsttitial and itould be aa surprise if that weren't't t bring aboutta recovery atsome point.t. so we exct a rececovyy in the third quarter. >> sojust want to make see i dedersnd you correctly y here. you're saying t thathe u.s. d are gngng trecover quicker thanasia, china, for
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example?e? ell, i thinkchcha is didiffent matatte acactuly. erere'been strong moves thther ththers turn arndnd in the economy y habebeen quitevious, vevery substantial fiscalaloooo boost. so i suppose mmututti c cnana in a very diererenleague. it hasn'n't b bee through rececessn.n. the question i i whether growth is going too at 6.8,, 88 or stronger thahan atat this year. but clearlyly chchins manage indices have beenuggesting exnsnsiofor the last couple ofof months now. >> hey, rarah, the rbacame out saying iss ueaea ouout particularly ccna. dodo y think they're r rhtht toe soso oimistic? >yes. i inin tyy remarkinged on
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china's strength, on ththe pickp in the h hsese mket and other indiditotorshat is suguggeeded that practicicththers a tt more oyoyany to the to the australianan ececony. bubut ere was a reremierer, of course, thatat t e eloyment pipicte remains rather subdued. so it's-- we think atat t rba at the moment is o on wawaitnd see popotition we think there still om for fufurtr employment ratecucuts laterin the yrr if the e ecomy doesesn' condititiono showhihis sort o oflevel ofmomentumum >> all rit, sarah,oooo to talk witityoyou. thanank uu very much foreieing withth us. sarah hen, standard chartered talking to u usbout thelobal economy. thththat, letet's head overo inindi ayesha f farii is joining usus m mumbai. looksike the mm market is improving just aittle whit daday. >> it t .. finanall after a a very choppy
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start, struggling with ttt mark on t t 50, most analysts e watchingng we are now seeing aa good pick p cocong in the market. for the firstst time in ththeda yoarare seeing thehe sensesexndd the niftyty up about and t thas pretettyucucthe high pott ofof the day that we've clocked. hoholdg above that levell f fore sensex, 14,2000 is backororhe index x d d th midcap indexex i slowly t trygg toececov back inintohehegreen. buyou would have to put it into cocontt.t. thisisss market whichch fell about 6%nn yeststery'y'trade. 5% was thekind of cutt we sawn bobo thesesens and the nifty. so a lot of damagege w nene yesterday. t agagain the market seemserery much split a a d dived. rrrrtly, the ministerr is having an industrtry action, ts ananuncement which was compmptetelyeft outf yesterdadas s buet annonoceceme.
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the budget m mintetehas been oted as sayayincoco six mononth from now, we wilill ee some stt announcement c cee by f forheh vevestnt space and there will s se deliberation onhahat ction, asell. someositive commmmen coming in ananthe market isloloy tryryin to fininitits feet. hoing up as of now. with that, i it' back to ou. > ayesha farididi, anank u vy muchchoror tt. >> chstste, anank u so mmh.h. we were showing you thaha speec fr p psident obama at thee economicic hool. mrmr. obobam calling for the s.. and russia to overcome some of eir cold war strust to f fm a new obal partnership. he had some interesting comments related to busisine f forhese twoo countries. let's b bngng in bill roroer, wo ows russia well as
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evevyoyone in effort ofull disclosure here, lett me mtion thaha you've beenen dieie entry into r rsia sie e 200606 let's get thatt on the tablble before we beginnhe estions. that correct? >>yes. soso i was the largest investorn russia on a a pofofoli b bisis h $4 billion i in e e country. d in nember 05, they abruptly took m my visaaway, claimingnghahat was a teaea to national securityty and sincnce enen, i ptty much reallocated all my assets oututf russia. t my experience after r atat was quite e extorordiry in that thee police statart raidinggur offices,s, tyy tried ta away r assets and t the they ste th companies thatat w we d invested t thrghgh and stole 30 million of tax money thaha we hd paidid i00006. and d so i've got a a l of questions s abtt whererussia eddingasas on my y n n personal experiencnce. >> ure. i understand. d one of the things that the
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prprident said today o perhaps it's paraphrasing t tha people ererherehohoulve the right to do business without pinin bribib.. can you speak on w wha it'ss le totoo o buness in russia today? >> well, mywn experience i is that you havee t thi class off bubuauaucrs, whether theyee police, tata fifials, whwhetrr ththey be firemen and allofof te pepeop are minin very much moy officiallylyndnd tir money is comominfrfr bribes. d d so on end up hahavi a siation where nobody is operating i in theirowown provl cacacity. >> b but athe same time, yo d ee more an more western businessssesoioi into rsia. jujustyesterday, f forexample, psps boeieing john deere,e, abot 1 much billion indedeal that have beeeen nene herere. clearly, at leasast ereric businesses areoooong for morere opportrtitity russia w wn you lo at the facthat rusussi do asmuch traird wiwithhehe
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u.s. a as i does wititland, th h haso be a great s sen of poportities for companies here. >> wwel i thinkoror every pepsi john deeeere or boeingg situation thth yohave, yoyou have otherituations like ikeaa who basic laii announced thahat they are noo longer going to exexnd in russiaia because of t krumumgz you have the s sittitionith telenor where they b bically are in t t p pross of l ling a$1.8 billion assetthrough corruptionon. you have the case e bhehe case of shehell where t thearart wi a $$ billioio e envononntal finene until they soldff of their project to gaspspro you cacacocomep with afew headlines s abtt guys comingng bubut can tell y y thehe story about otothe getting sququeed d out, includingngysysel >> whatt is your advice forhoho
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ekekinto invesest russia? my aicic is they shohoul't't until they know the itittion. i'veve investedd now in about 2 differentt countries and i've vever en negative like it in ssss. so the b boa o of director necessssar epsi, i wouldtell them that they y weeing irresponsisiblwiwi their monene anthe safetyff their emoyees by king further investments s russia. this is exactlyhat -- >> we'llqualify, eses are your ininio, right?t? yes. >> and throughyoyour experiencee do you know if it's got any better sce mvedev took ovov?? do y you dect a sense i in some part of g gerernmt whoanan to change? there must be peoplele in thth government w doesn't want ese things to hhapn, ghght? >> i'v've tt a lot really good ssians in my ti. i woululd yy that the genereral pupulaon is good. there'ss a f bad apples s ou
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there minin peoplee mirarabl meeded's firstololicwas let's ststpp out corrupuptind geget rid ofegegmealalism. so we werere all h hopg that th was going to adad to someththin but i can tell y you from own experience i iththatall we've seen a worseningng a and rsrseng tutuatn. essentialllly,hehe iate ves taken over t the alum outthere. >> bill, alwayaygogoodo talk to u.u. i'm soy, one more. >> didn't y know what y were getting into? i mean, i'i'm a aittle confufus to -- y you couldn'tavave en completely shocked t tha some o these things c cou have happened if you were vesting in russia in the first ple.e. >> well, youou know, i w wen ou ere more than tenn years ago and at the titime russia wasn n the transition frorom horrible bad. anan we thoughttoto ourselveshat if we can somehow partrticatate mamaki i i a little ttbetter,, then it woululd good for us businesswise and itt would be good for the russians.
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and it ssfrom 1996 t t 20,0, 20, things were improving. and then thihing startedo o go off f thrails. since en, he think t tngs have gogonerorom d back tohorriblele. so you c can j jus write off a ace right awayifououe saying atat, you knowow, they e d things going o but afafrr sinin the transisiti frfr b bad to rrible, whichch i wh w wve seen over thee l las upuplef years, haveo say th it would probably b a pretty crazy t tngng for a anyeo ma long-term investments out erere less there are somee signs that the t tnsnsitn is going babackn n e other didireioion. > okay. interestingg insight certainly, bill. we thank you r that. bill ououde is the cceofferer idiotage trtrad >> interesting d dcucussn there. joining us nowow obober
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lawrence, prorofeoror of tree d investment, harvard joioini john f. kenenne hool of vernment now. rortrt, od to have you with us. singapore andnd hong kong toppi the two lists, pretty much expectct o opion is it expected seeing ashohow these two economies depepe o on tree for rvrviv? >> y,, theheepend on trade. at's impressives the policiciesowowarnanablg trade are verery efctcte. ve g goo ininasastrture, very good higigh alalit iinstutions. t t full picture ne of countries who rlly perform well and stimulate trade, both ports and imrts. >> robebert it's r ros here. you lookk at the top ten, chststin mtioned sgagare anand hong kongng you've got ititzeand, denmarkrk and sweden. these are alal relatively sll states,,countries. i an, the point here is thatat if you're a much bigger country like the uniteded steteor rmrman presumably,, it's just
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much harardeisn't itit, tout in ththe right policies? prumuminthese guys heemore control. >>elel in a s sen you're right. t you have to looook athe fact that t the a a many small cotries that don't't d very well.. so the mereact you'r're sll isisn'a guaranteeee o o sucucce. the c couries who r reay c ce to ththe fe are not simplply small that thehey nn exercise momore control, but they are e ab t too that. >> what is the situatatio with ththununit states? th've got a very conducive businenessenvironment. why don't they ma the p n? they're a huge global tradadin nation, i memean the bieses an right. they're -- wnn we lookok a at e inindes,s, tre's some weaknesses in the united states. ininhehe fst place,e take account of access toto foreign markets. and it turns outlthough t ty y have aew preferentialal trading
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arrangngemtststhe united states cesrelatively high barrierss around the world. ththsecond weaknknssin the.s.s picture frfromhehe sndpoint papaicicully of bususinss is tht they have m mearere gearedd at fighting terrorism a a imposing national security, but impose e cocostonon trade. so these e the twowo areas which the u.s. stands out a a they ntntrite to its --otot a low raraing, but ratively low as totohere you migight expect. >>rorobe, movining ayay from th ranking, given thihi gloloba slowdown we'e' b bee seseei,, d yoththinprotectionism isoioing to be aey pipic, is going to come up as far as tradingisis coerernewhen it comes to all of these ecomomie well, ququesonably, it is a major r susu early, the g-20ountries madade statements to that effect. we h havseseen erosion, hough. u u kn, therere a lot of loloopleles the rules so thaha
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countrieies n n ta measuress which don't break the r reses, t nonetheless must b beudged as beg g ptectionist. soso yes,thth's a bigoncern out there. but in fact, o one of the t tng weopop will hapappe with h ee dedex we've veloped i is atat w also we wiwi t try to thehe accentuate the positive. it isn't enough j jus to resist rrorism. whwhat crititill is that they take t theeaeasus to s stilala their ecomies soohat others cacan w wl itted up. >obober lawrence, gd talking to you. thank you veve m muc fororbeing with us. hardrd vard'sohohf.f. kennedy's hool of vevernnt. >> comomg g up on "worldwide change," so muchfor the summer driving season. lylyas seenn o head steadily lower. we l lk at what the r res of th momontmight hold a lititee ler on "rlrldwe exchange."." and we'llll take in what's iningn on the currency
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rkets. we'r'rststil pretty muchn n e ranges.. sterling has weenenedfter the tetestanufacturing data.
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onhe euro a andhehe pod.d. jojoining us formo, m micel karl. mikeke yoll, weusus saw mafacturing and industrial production out of f thk c cee in waeshg than exexpeed. seeeemsow when yoyou start leighing thehe data,ee get a a rere o it that is getetti weaker. ifif tt t coinues that trend, w is itoioingo come through in t theururncy markrks?s? >> i thinkk the case ofof sterling, let's s no forgetet, have seen spectacular lly of late, paicicarly when you lolok at euro/sterlrlin hding down from march, t 94 lels down towards 84.80. so obviously, even t ts rally, if we see the g gre shoots now rnrng bit more dryy and certainly b beses the production data, alsoo the cments omom t
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british c cmbmberf xherz pointed in these direction, butt serm b e e economy is nonot getting out -- i wouould expect thatate will see a bitt of profit tan in the c casofof ststliling so euro/sterling risks are advised to theheppse.e. anand e e ru levels heree to lok at are probabablhe .8660 arar. if that is taken out, i will expecthe rkrket to rise.e. mimichl,l, your microphone isn'n'tompletely clear. so we'll keep it little shororte lolo,, if we cocontueue to getta ouout at suggeststshe recovery is s stainin what happens to e -- can we b bakak out of thee ras s th we have on ththajajor crcrses? what h hapnsns othe dollar? > well,he dollar should befit fromhis as we e shldld generally, enen, see risk aversions oncnce again increasi and, clearly, t the pattern th
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ri in risk arsrsn is benefiting the dollar d to its safe havenenstatas.s. this sllll seems to hold.. so on theacac of this, yes, drying upp with the g gre s sot shouldld bpoposive for the dollar and that isasically also o o o of r keys th euroro/dlalar oots a a break to ththe dodosiside a and shouldd below the 373750 lel.l. >> ninil,l, wve g a few problemsmsheheren howhehe sounds are coming hrhrou. ii apologize.e. we thank youoror that and we'll talklk to you veryyonon w, tension is building i in italy on theeve of the g-g-8 summit. thth s sururit buildupup arounde italian city of ila with protesters calling to ask for aid in south africa.
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erere no timeline for ninishg the negotiatition g- leadersre t thohtht to havav sfaut traderotectionism and osost agricultural vestment. > the reserve banank of ausua has kept i itseyey cash rates o ldld the rbrba ididhat the a atrtraln economy isis fairingng bteter t expectcted iteieirated that the prprevusus groundndfofor e easgg haveet to be feltlt. ththe ntntrabank, hhever, is preserving i its easing buyuyss ouou they much h hop for rerevery fail to materialize. the auieieippedinitially, b b now recovoverg g ju a litttt bit,t, 77 the 81 to the dololla scott. >> christine, member of president obobams economic advisory council says the u.s.s should plalan for a posossiee secocond stimumulupackage. eaeaki in siapape, laurara sasayshe current 87 billion stimulus p pla is s sllllerhan
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she would d ha l led. she sasays a posssslele second d shshou b be dirececdd infrastructure investstme.. tyson saysys theatates u.s. job dadatahohows the economy isn't' stabilizing. she sayshe marketss wrongoo be concecern about inflation givenththe ount of sck in most induduriries christine. comomg g up o nextour of "wldwide exchange," we w wl l bring you up to speed with all the heheadnenecross thehe globe. >> burgers and buss ridedes, ju two of theeools udd to find the world's most expensnsiv cities.. stay with us. speak one financial l lauaua.
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the e lauauagef exchanging. together, we're e heining shape the exchananngng wld. ny euronext. weweri the exchanging worldld.
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> i'm chrhrtitinetan. inaustralia, the rba saysthe economy is not a weak at foforestst. and i'mm ross wewegate. in ososco president obama calls for a freshhtata between the u.u.s.nd russia. >> and i'm'mcott pner. prident obama calls othe u.u. a and russia f fge a true panenersp.
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>> t t u.s. at this hour, let's take aa look aow the u.s. is t tdiding at this hour. weked out smallains afterr better thahan expected s serces numbers andde'e' improved throughout theheorning becausee we were signinifintnt belolowfar lue for about the last hohour at least. now we'relooking at flattopopen across the boboar s spretty muh impmpveved pictutu.. take a look a atheund yieldld 3.3.33%. let's turn o focus tohehe u.s. treasuryry mkekenow because there's more auctions onon tap todaday,oror this week soou'll have m mor supply on thehe mara todadayndnd dememanas been prety good of lle, b by t way. 3.54% is wheherehehe ten year cucurrtly sits, ross.
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>> and equititss he are rerefltitivef what you're seeeeg in the futures. the ftse cnbcclobal 300 is fier off the ssssiohigh. 12 points to the goodod aththe moment. european stock markets o hours into the tradingng daynearly 1 prss higher. 's's aoggy arar hehere sort o half an hour in w we rere ing nowhere. resources aree bounce a bit today. banks, coconsucucon,chemicaca,, oil a a g all bouncing a bit at the momome. on the cucurrcycy mamarks,s, th means that thohose countnteses have been down withh t the eurod ererng in paicicul are trying to reclaim m meme otheir losses.. the euro is s fierer a agast th pound. we had central manufacturing data out that wass weaker than pected. weweee starting to see re data ming throuough which shouldld suggest that thehe rovovy is
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stalalli.. >> spspkiking of cocory, earnings camaminin to help suppt some of the sentiment. nikkei 22 dn 0.3%3%. a stronger y yen did hurt t the exporters the.e. kospi up .3%. the hang highh composite down 1.1%. hang seng down .6%nd the bobomb sensnsex m makg g ba som of theaiai ststery. yesterery y a member of ththe mt tanked over disapoint t ofmpmpt appointmtmenofof t didian buetet in terms o ofoil,e are watching it clclosy.y. we're seeing apullllbatill in terms of oilust now.w. but righghnow, i it'rereveing its cocosese. brent, $4.4848 a barrel. ssss >> that is where w w stand in
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today's markets. whwhat d ds it mean? nicks parsons is with us. nickck, odod to see u. ththk you for coming i i mentioione though, a audlelu kekehe employment number a as the ggest lasast w wee and the data out of the ,, we're stararti t to e data falling back or not as big an improvement as we pected. where are we n now f for invest sflpthe recovery smuch that be a recovoverinin optitimi.. itit n not y yet baeded up h da r rated tororoduion and sales. we look at manufacturing pruction in europop the.s.s and d thuk. it's a simimila story o on retal sasale arar or arar sales adown more than 7%n the u.s. they're down almost2%n the uk and 3% in euroland.d. the gogood n n new is that thth are e geining rse more slowly.
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it's not translating toto crcreas in sales,ncncreesn profitability drdriv b by topine grgrow a a i think t thass what we need to stt to get more opmimi on the market. what ithth iicicion for investors at thiss pot?t? >> i thinknk th a aetet mkeke e more likelel to come dnn than up ng r think the focus will b b onon corporate prprofababily. weill start lookingo see ether results are bting our expectct igs. t i thinkkhe keyuestion is whether r thottom line resususs orthe b botm m li profofababily is driven n by incncreeses in s, inineases in volume and incrcreassin aivity. or whether it's drivenbyby cost cutting or strtripngng outcosts fothe whole operationon which in turn wouldlde e a drag on f fut consnsum spending i in q3 andd .
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for meme, it's very mumu the makekeup of thosee profits rara than the absbsolee level of prprofability which will give us that knee jerk i ira as t ty all start to come o out from momorr. >> nick, it's stttt in the u.s. at's an interesting pepective on what we shshou expect frorom rnrnin. youu mentitionhe expectatioions which heree in the unededtates haveve bnn ratcheted at least lilile bit given thatat t data out of latate has been fairly decent. i'not going totoayaygood, but you u kn, , little better. > well, yeah.. the datakokopd getettiworsrse. wewe'rnow coididt that the wowors quarterer of growth we c talk about i in ee past sense. stst year, itust got woee and worse and the feeling ended i i one e desperation in the e off february, which wouldd itevever evevd? llll, has ended.d. we arere n gegeining worse -- rather, we're not gettttgg nunuers in terms o of magnitude are worse than the ones ththat
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we'v'vseen. 're now getting woe more slowlyly. it's good ws. bui i ink that's rlected alaladady asset prices andnd m concern is we'r'ra a ttle too optimistic, just a a ltltle too mplacent that somehow w a are gogointotoeat the nber by a pennnny a couplee o of cents.s. and that p posive suririse if ititcocome is likely to b be dr by t tn volume. >> nini, we had a guest e elier in t theshow, enenzi von ffl predigititanan octoberertock maetet crcrh.h. >> i don't think thahat i i cra is in process. t let's rememberctctob is a tricky time foror assetet rkets. where are there are douvenside moves, stember is most rtainly the favoredonth on th cacandndar i i ink it would be difficicul t escaca s som of that nervousnes this time aroundnd.
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i think markets are going to end the year higherer b in the memeanme, we could see a a correction of on n e e dodoside berere wget to the growth and d profitability. > i think so we willl e the ye higher here,utut in n th meantime, , c cou go d dn 10% easily from currrrenlevels. >> nick is t the head rategy t t national australia bank. he's g goi t to ick with us for a bit here. still l come onworldwide chchan," in these times o of ecomic rececsisionif you want s se moy,y, whichch c cits s should yououavoid al a all cost? 'll have the answer afafteththe break.
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>>welcome back t "wldldde exchanange mersa hahaselelead its 2009 ctt of l lining survey.. totokycocos in as tost expensive c cit while j j haas hahnessburg comes in as the least expensee i. loonon ranks 1 16. new york comom i in ghth place. for more on this ptiticur susurv, , are mulan tlolo joining us to talk morore about it good to o ha y y with us. tokyonocking moscowutut of the mostxpxpenve city to live in..
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how much of f th is dueo o e apeciationn n th japanese cuenen? >> the vast m majity of thth increase for tokyo has bebeen on currency fluctuations. you've seen the strengngthiningf theauto yen on the the u.s. dollar. ththe her aspectasaseen t cost o of ntnt combinationin too.o. we cururrelyly see a two-bedroo unrnished apartment in tokyo will cost you arounun 3,00 unds a mononth compared to 670 pounds i in hannesburhannesburg. > dyou know why that's the case? wewe kw w jan is in a recession right now.w. yy is accommodation s so pepense there?e? >> this is aururve for ex triots and their families, coination forthose inindidudualand the combination is all tietd in meme of the biggest cities in the wowod. so that reallywhat's driving the rentalspect fortokyo. >> this is all-- y you calalcute
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isis i all based on the doar. is thahat ghgh >> thahat'right. >> and you compare everything to that. itit quite interesting thahat everybody is talking about- so of have b bnn t talngngbout theeememis of the dollar.. but of ccoue, new york h h crept t up into ththe top t because of t thetronger llar. >> absolutetely evy y ci in the.s. this y yr hassncncreed its posititio in the survey. new york has broken into the top ten. canadian citieses h hav all dppd bebeuse of the depreciation of the canadian dololla against th u.s.s. dollar and so currency fluctuatatnsns, obably the big aspect and d ee rson w why we'v seen so manyny cngng in the rarainingshis year and ththat reflflec t t turmoil onon t rkrket over theasas 12 nths. were there any standout movements thatat y l lood to the dadatand thought, we mustst g back and doublble-ececk at becacaee that looks a b bwrong. were there an that stooddout fromom t m mor citities >> i i tnk thehe o o sururpreea e movement of caracas which is
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now the 1 15t most expensive city. at's partiallllypepeed to the bolivas versrsushehe u. dollar. 's more expxpsisive to buy thee significantltlinin t last 12 montnths in caracas and t thass whatat'sririvecaracas u up significantly overerhehe lt year. > he you been to caracas? no. >> milan,,ood to seseeyou. thanks so mumu f forighlighting ththos >> thank you.. >> meantime, presisintnt obabam sasays the united d atates and russia are not destineoo be an tag g insists. speaking to graduates ofhe new economic schchoo e earer todaynn moscow, some of which you s s right hereonon "worldwide change," some sa the p purit of p pow is no longer quote, zero sum game that progogssss mt
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be sharered a and to a aueue his cocotry's shares s mpmpelng interestst whh ssia. >>merica wass ststro, peacefulul a p proerous russia. leader res b bot countries are eneno irorovi relelioions that haveve bomoma bit more chilly lalastyeye.. presidenent obama mett witith rn prime e miststlaladir putin. >> the s secitit build upup aro the italian cicity of lalaki h intensififie inheheob cocoununiq, there wewereququs for ththe a cclusion of thehe dohar trade tks and ere hasn't enen aimeline set for finishehesi t tho negotiatatnsns.
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mm afraidhe organization o the meeting isis coming under attack.. many of the other countries a loing and saying theyy haven't set a prprerer anda for this meinin claudidiisis othe phone frorom italy. ananitit's not justt thegegend ththat g g problememicics in tes of ganization, is , clalaud?? >> no, ss.. ththee is plentyy o confusion here there mororni trying to get acacededition for the press. ere are almost 3,3,0 peoplee that need totoetet acedited beeen today -- actually, mostly t tayay a it is a diffffict t tuation. bu this summit is summimit that, of course, has h had very imrtant issues like thechangege inin venue. 2 1 months o,o, itt was moved from sasaenia tolvia, where we are now. atat w the area hihi by the earthqhqua o on ril e 6th. cleaeay,y, ts m meses for a difficult sisituioion thisss
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ghghostown, ulultitete. eeacacilies here are notot ready toake onn as manany peopl they are trying g accommmmatate. there are about t 20,000eople coming in between press, betetwe the d delations and also the secucutyty. so this is quiui difficult situation for them to set upup s quickly in suchh a short amount time andt lookslili things e e stl under construction day as tomorroww iis e expteted for the e g-8 tostart. >>claudia, we'llll leave it there. goododucuck th standing ithth queues there an s sorngng tngs out. it s sousslike a b bit of a nightmare.e. >nick,xtxtordinary decision to move itoo thehe a disasaster zone twoononthbefore you're suosos to have it. t t apt f fm m th, for vestors, what's the momo important tthi?? e e we going to tatalk authihis serve currency s sayg we d d wa t t talk aut it,t,ee don't nt to talk aboboutt?t? t the's a tussle between the bric countries as represented bb russia at the g-8eeeeti and franance inararcular asseurope's representatitionhohos desesrarae
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not to havehe rervecucurrcy the agenenda anany ntion of a reserve currencycy i going to hurt theh u.s. dollar. e very lastt ththin that europe needs now isis a stnger rrrren. i think k u'u'll see a b behd t scenes tussle between nowndnd thsday to try to rememov that as an enda itit. 's's normally there, but i think thehe french wantnt to ki this. this will boost t theueu and euroropeerertaly doesn't want at. > nick, it'ss s sco here in s.s. the were comments comingngutut of fraranc is morning ttha in fact,hehe would benono tkt the g-8 ofof t r rervecrerenc >> we've alreadydy h that. i hadn'tsese those ccomnts. 's no rprise. the french sily don't wantit. if you listenoo mr.r.rereshare thurursd of lastweek, he said
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it is cruruci. he doeoesnalk the euro lolowe explpliclyly o exesesy oror in wowordof one syllable.. butt a call forxlis i didn't't tellitly support a strong llllar tells yhaha theyo not ne thatt strength frorom their levels. >o you think there willll b me talk ofchina erging asaa new supup power? >> ohoh, thererwiwill be doing r stst t nullify cchi.. i think it won't b be long befo e g-7 rmallyececom g- o o g-g-10. it's the elephant in thee room alally here we arere t talng about groh and the global econono and t th laest country witith ee strongest growow i is t ininted. so i think it's only a a matterf time befefee we see c chi rmally attending. i guess one of f th great ququesons that will go
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unanswered this ekend, at asas is whether or r no italy should be kikick o o and reaced by spain.n. after all, tre's no exchangnge te issues he. spanish g is likely to overtake italian gdgd over t the course of the nextxt monthshs butsomehow, i i tnknk they'll tr to keep thatat one ofoff e e en. >> interesting. nick, , weililcontinue to talkk to yououoror some ti.. nick parsons, he of strategygy national atrtral baba.. he'sur super guest today. sllll too come on the show, rorope stocks led t to roroer territitor
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> > okay. ahead of ththe u.s. sessiona a little ler, it's time to bringg you up to speededitith global uiui markets right nowow arting off with beck i iky in london. >> t the ftsee 100 isaining inrere .8%. amamgst the biesestgainers, there are e enenty of basic resource stocks ain.n. kakazamammy is t tpiping out the chart followed b by glglo ame n american, lonmin aree further down, too. let meme just mmenonon, we haved industrial productctiodada out here i ithe uk ithe past little while which slows decline of7% yearr o o year.. the space of that d decne apappes to be easing.
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a couple other s sck toes mention, peimimn cameouout with figures this morning s saygg tht their firstt h hal sales h he improved. ey also see prices beginning stabilize, toso that's good newews r r th seseor. sylvia, how isist t loing in frankfurt? >essentially,t't's again banking story a aut possibly side stepping t t b banngng s sm t theankididt pass o on liquididit totoda t t zzazag you seen n th dax isis largely d due to the f that t theararke hit the ropes n early ttrangng. after that, the b ban came to theforefront. why? because thisis is a feeling out there andd a r rept the nancial times deutschland that the banks will have someelelie to the changngedequirements on their balancnc sheets. in fure, they will n not have to back up t tirirososs by capital and that would, of ouours reliliefhehe capitatal basiss a thatat wldld hopefully giviv th more roomm ld outo the coorore ececto.
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that could help it. incidentally, paris steieiererg ididhe saw aittle level t t eaease capital ruiuirents for e e banks.s. atathould have been a negagati sector. t t ttod, the positive sectors ovovrirideverything else. stephane, whwhatbobout paris? >> the cmakers are trading higher today in paris after peugugtt citronn w an improvement t erer t last c coue ofof mohs,hahank to the inceceivive ckage for the carmakaker in europendnd also it's e expting a seconond half be better, thanks the laununc ofof n polths. peugeotnnounced it's expececti 2% decreasase in uninit ses for ththisyear. athe other end, we have airir frcecekl trading lower.. the decline ismportant on s asianroots. do aost 11% and alalso a significant decline in europe where e thtrtrafc is down n nrly
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by for the lastt month. the stock is n n off more than 2%2%. that's about it fofoyou. ererhe chloe in singapore.e. >> thank you very much.. a softer picture mostly out h hr asia, given thatat a lot of ininveororare cautious, especially about the eainings pipiurure we hear from alcoa totomoowown the united states. in apan, slighghtl to the ster side for a 10th,, down .4%. you have autos uererreresse there, espececiay y isuzu, pepecily on news at t totota mototor yy lklk itsdiesel engines asas invesesto seem too seing down t tt totock overern n soh rere gettttin plentyty of up sidide f frothe si,, samsung electctrocscs is oe of the heaviest weightstson the board. ee shanghai xotit spped a four-day ling streaeak, losisin in the order of 11%.%. we h hava a t of selldownn i banks and developersrs t kind of plala tt have been ppgpgup the market.
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the hananseseng nanad t to r ree earlier gassnd csing d dow ababtt .6%. lot of bluechips with the exemption of hsbc eing in the red. now ovovero o ott in the united ates. h the, chloe. ththksks smumu.. hopepe you have a good day toda. itit's a quieie dayininhe u.s. with no d daa to speak . ththers aanandf ofarnings reports. we'll get numbersoday from the lilis s of restaurant ain r ru tuesday, i intnational speedway, the owner andnd operatorff severaral r retetra he in thee . inuding the home of the great american rarace t the daytona 5. >> a a who's who i iin the industry willl descend innowow ththiswewe.. big dealals have e beade in the past. 2006,ofof course, youtubeasa th talk ofofhehe korns, leading to google's buyoutf f th video
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sharing website. this year t woror is about twteter and whetherhe site will be e lele t make momone ththat y youlolobastock watch, ross. still to come, alcoco i is to r relse its second quarter r sales tomorrow. you have queuestnsns who can give you thehef? where will you find the e stilily and resources to keep you ahead ofof tssr? where will you find thesese e e toh questions.s that's why we b brohthttoget where will you find powerful nameses thes t thendustry.estions.s inododucg morgan stanley smititbabarn. hehe to rethink wealth m manememen re to answer... yoururueuestns. morgan stanley s smi b bney. a new weweal nagement firm with over 130 years ofof eerernce.
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> > prident obama sakakin to grgradte students todayaynn h h momoow calls on russia t forge a true partnersrshi >> andnd here in europe, ququess isis overththeummit preparededssss. >> and here in asia, australia rbsays the local economymys s not as w wea as earlier forecas as it epeps interest rates on hold at 3%. > let's tee a okok at wre u.s.s. furur a s sping up ahaheaofof t market open here in about four hohour t te. and t tha situation is improvin
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throughout thehe rning. we'll call it flat, eally, across the bod here. no r rl l outoday. tomorrrrow is the gg day witit alcoa reporting.g. mo supply coming on the market this ekek. ririt now,5353 on the ten-n-ye, , ss. t thas, scotot right nono europeanststoc markets haha c cerinly p pked up from a stodgy start t isis morning. at the momont, up.6%. ju under .5%5% higherror the rmrmannd french markets.. smi up .16%. some of the energrgy stockss rebounundi f frothe losses had yesterdaday d d friday. on the crerey markrk,, it anan that sterling w w tryryintoto crawl back s se e ofhe losses.
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dollar/yen is veryry mhh ithe ranges across all the major foign exchange crosses, , christine. >hey, ro.. investororarare questioning the data o of ee global cocove, the speed ofof t g glol economy, the covery, rather, and t ttt is puputtg i invtotoinin cautiouou silines. thee nkei 225 ddd down 00.3 ththe strong yen hurting the expoports.s. koi up 0.4%. the shanghai market i is down 1 in profit takiking the longng sang is dowown 0.7% in prorofitaking. theomomba sensex, little disappointntgg iian budget. in terms s of oil t of negative territory,y, nymex lightt set crude w w up4 cents a and brent is m movg higherinin ndem with nymex x rirint at $64.44 a barr. ott. >all right,t, ririste. joining us now for market
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strategy is robober pavlik and nick psosons is with h still, head of strategy at t t n natnal australiaa banknk bob, it'ss niceo see yo the mamarks s ar searchingor a lilitt direction here. wherere e e going i in ee marketets? >> it is. i ink what you're sinin is investors are wwored. the e cece of the covery,lilike ristine said, the second quarter earnings season,eoeopl aren't s surwhwhe that isoing to be tataki us. analysts are expecting a%% crcrse over last yeaear, housisi the pace of the recoverery in housing. therere'cocoerns about inflation and concerns about themomot o o debt thahat'bebein issued byby govevemementoststimate the economy. ee employoyntnt rort last thursday, i think thatat serveso highlight the e cece of the recovery isis ting some time. there's obvivislsly some weakne in somef the economimicayy sensitive e eaeas the market. but i ththin i if u take a a sp back and lookk a at some of the
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ononom reports, y'reeeeeg some impmpromementccurring and you're seeing evevenigig of initial bump up ithth ononom thececomy is not going too tu a adime. we're going tsee a slow grorowt econonommomovi into n ntt ear. bubut ththin if you look at som of these r rororts that the ism services index, the philadedela fed manufuftuturi report, y y're eing a slilitt turn arounund so o of e mananacactung areas and d th is a a very sisiti signal.. inflation n ss b basalal been flat for the past two to three mohshs retail salales h hee picked up. spendingng has p picdd up. viving haspipick up. anand s s i'm ryry encouragaged sosome of eses early econonomi rerepos s an i think as t mamaetet bomes more aware of meme o these economic reports, you're goingng to see the marke pick up a little momomeumum and thk it's going toraraw some money inffffhe sidelines.
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>> it sounds likike as a resultf had some of thahatimimovement yoyou' talking out, pectations has been raisesed the earnings front, thehebaba h beaised hher than whatt s s before. > well, i it' a g gddpoint. because i thinink atat y saw in ththe rstuauaer withnalysts exctctg a sutantial decrease, hevever 67% of the mpanies of the s&p 500 wee ablele tbebeathose earnings pectations. now, y youananrgue whether or noit was on cost sinin or increase in buness, but t the ttttomines s th theyststl wewereble to be --- and i expec that trend to ctinue in the secondquarter.r. ththk analystst estimates are still t tooow. i don'n'ththinthe s&pp is sellig atat5 1/2imimesearnings. because the analyststs haven't be able to ctctor inllll these improved enonomi reportrts.
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i thinkk theear term,, we would bebet about t 50 on thes&p. nick, what do y youakakof whatobober issaying?? i don't share ttt degree of optimism. i me, theood news in the mbers is they're getting worse re slowly.y. we had four consecutitivencncree in theheism s serces and it is still at a level tt't' consistentnt wh h coraction in ththe onomy. yesterday y the e s only one component of the ism services index anddhahat sriris paid that w w a abo the 5 50break evn level. evy y ngle component w was wer than 50 and everyryonon of them hahas en lower tnn 50 for the la fourcocoecutive monthshs. now, it is goodnews. >> nick mes a great point.. >> let's no forget that things arare stillgetting worse. >> but a at lesser pace. and what you hahave t to is you're not g goi t tsee a turn ououndn the dime.
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anani agree with nick,e'e're still poinint g ga contractionn howeweve t the contrtrtitions getting less andnd ihink that's the sign o real rerecory. > aolute fair popot.t. lookining rwrwar ouough i' got to questionn markas t whwhheher is consumer ledd recovery is goining c comfrom. initialllly we're goioi to haven industry led rebebou.. bubu let'sacace i 72% of gdp comes fromnsnsumion. if youou'v still go u umpmploet going u upnd the bottom lineein sofhese reports being boosted, people going ononoo papartime working, empmploenent but without pay,y,hehen fail to e e ere it'soing toususta thhohos of rerecoryry tough whwhatould be potentially difficult riri. it ununds as ouough we'ren the sa p pag in terms of l loong r a correctionhehere you're oking for a cororreioio ofof 1
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from the topop,'m thihiining mo like 10% from cucurrt t lels. perhaps it's'susust e of degree. i hearr y you armeme. d i understand where y y'r're mimi from.. but withthhehetitilus package, it's's gngng t carry u and givi us aump start io a nsnsum-led expansion. t before we get to that consnsum-l-l expansion, you need the consumer's'seaead. i i thk k ce the restf the 90% comes into o pl, , at is gogoin to gege to the point wherere t consumerereeeels moreomomrtable in spending. nick is right ababou ventories d d i ink that's a good potive goingforward. buness andholesale inntntors in the united stateses have been lolowe phenomenon eigt months in a r r and i think eventuallyhehen e economy does start to pick up more team, th is goingngooelp give us that add boost. >> bob, do weeneed another
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stimululus ere is talkomome out of the whe house from o oof the economomic aisiser there th we need anonoth o one >> you know, i t thi you have to give the firstst stimulus packa a real chance. there was a lot ofork built into that fifirs smulus package. it w was designedtoto be imimplenend over probably about a year and a h hal and i dididn really careeoror it that much. wewer, that's what we're s stu with right now. i think if you stataeded going through the m motnn oe trngng totoetet a second stimumus s pae enenteted, i think that would create a lot of deaea lk i in congressss a d don think it wod d t pushed thugugh right now. so i think we're goingo o wo with w wha we have and renlly that will take ld. it j jt whether or n not people want to w wai it all out. > ts is c chrtine in as.. when i iththisecovery in coumer spending going to kicick in i in e e u.s.? >> i think you'reoioi to see it take s som time. you're goingngto see very slow
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grgrth in 2010. you u kn,, ually growthh is a lilile over rere in united states gd i inin you're probabably going o see a1% to1.5%5% gdp growtwth nt year. it's's aatatr of whether or non the stock market i i going to continue to rise with atat slo gdgdp growth. i think will becacaus think if you look tt into 2011 andnd furtrtheouou you're goingngto se the rest o of ee g gbabal econo beginoic up m mor eaeam. w w so does thatt tralgs lolola intotoononsur led spending? weadad it pererpsps in the first or sonond quararr r of next yyr. gentlemen,ththatas aery ni debate.. weant you both to stay with h us. bob pavlik anand ckckarsons, as llll. from the datat let's heaead o oe to tokyo and check inin on what happening in thehe tradidingaya there with ask ka kondo ithe
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frc inspe franc. kondo-san. >ello, christine. thyen'ssppppciationreressed majorr exporters like sonynd honda where lolor r oiand m met preses dect the resources down. among commodity sscks, nippon steel loss 2%.%. isuzu motors felll as the nikkk ported that toyotaa motor h h anandoits dealtoto deployy diesels wiwith isuzu.u. the company has decided to give up thisididea am the weakening global demand and focus on selling hyidid cs,s, insteaea this isikely to the first step of a restrucuctungng pcess for ttota.
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ducking the downwarard trends wr stocksks sh h papan tobaccccad japan railway. ththe kkkk has reported thaha kkkko will acquire tererma company, one of ththe biggest manufactcturs s of pumpsor refinerieses the japananespumpmaker is expected to c cplete the acacquition in idid-aust, bubung all outstanding sharess fortsts 23 blilionyen. ththatasas t nikkei busineses report for dada ckck tyou, chchriinine. >> asaka kondo, thank you so ch. > christine, neieierer sduns nor incentives helped fi hawaiiii s swes in may. we'll have m morfter the break this struggling industry.y. welcome to the n nowetetrk. populationon 4mimilln.
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you can ship anywhererinin t country for a low flatat re.e. ship internatitialal, o. yes, but i ship hundndre ofhings, in all sizes. four sizes. callll n a and we'll send a free susulyly, plplusp p $160 in offers. wh y youe ready to ship, we'lll matter how many you h hav whpriority mail flflatatate xes only from ththpopost service. a simpler way toto sp.p. welcome back to "worldwidid exchange." prident obama sayays the united states and rsia are not destine too be ananagag insists. spspk to go adaduas o of ee new economic schools schchl l eaier toy y oscow, the prerededent says t the pursuit of power is longerer a zero mm game andthth progreress m musbebe shared.d. president obama used the spepeh
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the furtheher define ss view of the s.'s place inin t world and to gue h company compares compellining teteres with russssia >> a amecacaants a strong, peaceful and prospsperss rsisia. >> leaders in bhh countriries e opop a abo having to rebuild lations that became a bitore chilly last year. before hispepeec to theew ececonicic sool, president obama met w whhususan pre e mister vladimir putin. meantime, there's n vation in paradise for hawaii's tourismsm industry. a neweport shows h hot cupancy fefell to a record low in may despiteeep diounts ananheavy incentives. okings fell the most on ththe big islanan of hawaii whee only half of thee h hel rooms w wer lllled the reportby smith trarave advisers s sayitit unlikely haiiiiill see any sign o of recoveryuntil well ininto20. christine.e. general motors h h rerred toeieiji automotivee as a rmrmidle bder for it opell
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unit. cording to a wall street jojonal source, gm i ixwres pressed with the cnese tomaker's pressionalismndnd the ability to attack issues ququkly. baba's bid couldththreen an earlier bid b by magna,a, ich been considered t tront runner.. the advantage of china proposal is that b bjijing autu eses n plan to cloloseany ctctors in germany a would asas foressererma governmenen guarantees thahan magna. >> nal thought n from nicick rsrson you've alrlrdydy said touou this earningsgs ssoson et will b be make of the eaeainings o owheth 's's going to be important.. ifif iisis jt cost cting, whatt is going to be the planan of yr investment strategy ththugugh t summer and into the fstst part of the yearar?
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>> well, were ththato o behe case d d a andf it's cost cucuttg g at drives it, i think the focus is back o o bond marketet wewe'lee uity markets struggling and t tse beliefs that s sehehow isenenal banks lb ququkk t removining thehe monen imimus will have to disappear. i think anywhere alolo the short end o of ee cve that marartsts are beginning to pricee in interest ratate kekes in 2010. at will behe fococ for attentntio if you find it's's costst-ctit driven recovery inin cpopote profititabitity, t tn i think tt gigiveus no hope for an imminent recovery in the seseco h hf of this year or t t early p pt of 2010anand that i i where w wou want too focus. >> nick, thanks very much. let's find out what's's coming p insqsqwk box" ust over 11 minunute beckckisis wh us. hey, be.. >ooood morning, ro.. good rnrnin everybodydy. it washe energy plan heard around the worldld one year ago right here on n "squawk box's se tasas bill
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heir boone pickens firsrsitched ss ppoposa to m mee theununed stateses ergrgyindepepeenent. 12 months a and $6 million late he will going toell us how it t is going.g. boonepipiens is joiningngus here in studidio ttod. plus, long known as one ofof t best f fix i iome trararsrs on e treat, pimim's's nyny cresenzi pepehehed om newpoportbeach. >plplus a pioneern n th stotk mamark.. marc lasry, you won't want to miss ourur cveversionwith him. we have the fnder of avenue cacapil l oup joining us live. icons s an rrebs, yououl l se i here on "squawk box." roro, back over to you. >> yeah. okok, becky, thanks very y muc. soso hwawa talkingng t n nic s gogo istracted.d. >>ou were thinking aboutall ofhese guys,oooo pickens, ,
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marclascy. >> we werere talking g abtt ton creszenci. >> he is. isis ia firstt onnbc inrview. >> thanknkserermuch. lookokinfoforwd to the program. all l ghght, guysys nene, the seseco quarter rnrnin seseas kicks off tomorrow anand many analysts don't expectct pretty results.
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let't's t t a ok aad at thu.u. trading day a and bring babackob paslik. a 1010% cocoececti would becacad optimistic, but t iguess that'sa si of the times we're in right now. >> eaeah. >>rereou buyingn n th dips? if you are, what do you lilike >> what i l lik is we are binin ononhehe psps wh i would beecommending to investors outt there, no day
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aders, but investstor is to not focus on the day-to-o-yy movemementofofhe overallmarket. you're seeing improvements in the economic reports a a think yoyou' going to o se aeturn to poposive g as soon as ththe third quarterer. and i i ininkhat you want to d is posositn n yo portfolio for atat positive gdp growth.. i think you want t toeduce your exposure to the defensive areas and you want t increasing yourxposier to ththearar clicals, the discretionary, the financials, the b bas mamatealal a especialllly technology. think if you did that, you'll well pososioione going forward. inhe next three to five years, the market iss going to be higher. it's gng tobe coming o on ee baba o this economic stulus ckckagand aetetn to posititiv grgrthth. it's g goi t t take time before startsic kickingng ioo play and everybodyywill be tining determine what isoioi on ne rmrm. but focus on t the longerer rm d i think yoyollll bfine going forward. >>owow a you playing thehe commoditiess tde rightnow? it over? , i don't think so..
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i think y youl see a specialal increase in demand f fmm erging maetets ch as china and didia. and i thinkk one of the best wel known companies out there rigig now w foththeomommoties tradeis freepopo mamacm.. it's a leader in copperining anand 's thehe wod'd' cocond rgest gold mimier. ilolook tocsx a a my best bet in the commomodieses play. >> b,b, we hahadanan earlierueu whwho id he believed in a stock rkrk crash in ococbeber. do youou bieie yourself that th is going t t hapapn?n? >> no, i d don b bieve we're ining see a crasas i think wewe'roing tsesee tential weakness i in ee market. obviously,y, stetemb and o oobor ararprobably theworst two mohshs o of thentntir y yea and you'rere gngng thave too be able to dede this ou what we ares l lonterm vevests. we are mindfuful of theshort-tem ves t the mmkeket, but 'r'r going f forrdrdnn a turn to
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poposiveve g growth. >> bob, we'l'lleleavit tthe.. 's nice having pup. >> thanks for h havgg me. >> let's take a look in ththe meantime at how futures a shining up. alall eyesesegin to t tur now t earnings season. coco kickingththin off aftfter e e be t tomrorow d the d datate is rajting to whether alcoa is a bellweweerer. as you t tak look a at futures the e tutuatn is impmpviving abe the moment.. that is it for today's show. i'm scott wapner in t theninite states. >> i'm ross westgate herere in eueuro. >> and he inasia,'m'm christine tan. anks for your company y he o on "worldwide e ehahang"
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>> g goomorning. is$787 billion just notot enoug? why o one of presidenent obama' ecomic advisers s say it's tee tototatart p pn agoecond fiscal stimulus. a new partnership, prididt obamaabarn storming russisi calling on thehe cntnt to p put ee remnants o on e cold war firmrmlyn n e past. >>the markets at this urur greenn arrowss across eupepe. a a aa o redcrcrs asia. u.s. equity futures absolutely below frralue aer tradadin higher yeststery.y. itit's july 7th, 2009. ringo arars 69th birthday and "squawk box" begins s rit t no ♪ hee a little hpp


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