tv Fast Money CNBC April 7, 2010 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
held up particularly well. at one point we were making some serious gains there. karen? >> i'm not exactly sure why, to tell you the truth. dwl but you are a buyer -- >> absolutely. i'm long bank of america. i'm long jpmorgan. i thought the price action was really good in bankamerica, not quite as good in jpmorgan. but one other thing that's interesting besides the bond auction that tim touched on was the credit data. i actually don't know what to make of that. people spent much less than expected in terms of credit balances. that is -- you could take that two different ways, one of which would be bad for consumer discretionary. >> stock stories. have you got a good stock story? >> i thought today's action was really good. i thought the rotation, what you had was the rotation. so while some money was coming out of some commodity stocks, it was going into the financials. you had every reason, as tim mentioned, you had every reason early this morning it to think today might have been the day you had a major sort of sell-off or retraction here. you had a lot of concern about greece, and you had a lot of fear about the auction this morning.
>> yep. >> before the auction took place. and you didn't have that major sell-off. >> i want you to give
me stock stories! please, gary. what can i trade? >> the story is real simple. the meltup continues, and so whether it's the financials, whether it's the retail names, it's the names that we've been focused on that are going to participate in a rising interest rate environment. because despite today's auction rates are going up so, you've got to -- >> we will come back to both of those themes. for the moment to some traders the last leg of this rally has been too quiet by far, but our chart of the day says never short a quiet market. the market's longest stretch without a 1% gain or decline happened back in 1995, when the market, dennis, saw a 35% gain for the year overall. >> give me a quiet market anytime. i'm an old guy. i've been around here doing this for 35 years. i'm comfortable with the vix at 16%. i can remember when a vix at 16% was a high number. here we are at 16. give me quiet numbers. i'd much prefer them. >> dennis is smack on. but the problem here is people
have been too complacent here. i think the market's way too complacent with vol at 16. i think the volumes on
the way up in this market were very soft. today the volumes were decent and look what they did. that's what the guys who think we're due for a pullback will tell you. >> let's go to jon najarian at the prop desk because importantly, jon, when you've got no volatility people who are scared don't necessarily have to sell, do they? >> no. because when volatilities are cheap people can buy protection, buy insurance for very cheap prices. the same thing people are focused right now, simon, on the trading desks is whether or not this is a repeat of the first quarter. we started off gangbusters, and then we hit the wall with alcoa. we've got alcoa's earnings next week. volatilities are likewise. exactly breaking through to lows of the multimonth segment. so i'm a little watching that, but i'm also seeing a lot of institutions buying puts to protect. i'm not seeing people exit the market. >> but if volatility was so cheap and people could then step in and buy and protect themselves, why wouldn't volatility be higher? this is kind of my point. i mean, people think that the
market actually is so low vol they'll just kind of drift higher they don't even want to spend what it takes to buy the -- >> i know what you're saying, tim, but i'm telling you, today it was about 53% of the puts that i was tracking broad market were being bought on the offer. that's five full percentage points above where it was this time last week. those are people protecting ahead of the alcoa earnings because it's so cheap, and then if they do get an up side rally, if the same-store sales numbers tomorrow are good they can sell up side calls against it, we call that a collar, that's a great trade for folks into earnings. >> let me drill down to specific names if i may's which is really our quest tonight op cke restaurants getting a better bid and after the bell bloomberg reporting that hospital chain hca is preparing for a $3 billion ipo. how do you feel about that, karen? these m&as have been long talked. i don't see it in the market at the moment. the volume it should be for the amount of cash that's on balance sheets. >> i think you will. there have been a lot of deals.
i mean, the cke is not a particularly large deal but what's interesting was this was an lbo deal and there may be more than one other party interested. and the other part of the news, the hca news, lbo firms now able to come back to market with ipos. that was -- >> which of those are you -- >> which of those two? i would buy -- you could probably buy either. >> gary. >> and again, this is -- we've pointed this out many times. you need to see the m&a. the m&a's here. this is good for the blackstones. it's good for och-ziff. good for fortress, goldman sachs, morgan stanley, all the -- >> i don't see the m&a here, gary. i don't see multibillion-dollar deals. >> there are. there's air gas. there was millipour. smith international. alcon, which is still pending. that's a number already. >> there's a half trillion dollars these guys have to spend. they're going to overpay -- >> free cash flow, another trillion that they could -- >> and then you have emboldened shareholders who because they see this bid are holding out for more and it create this feeding
frenzy. >> i would characterize the m&a environment right now, it's not crazy. it's a healthy environment because there are strategic deals happening. hc wachlt was one of the best structured deals before the credit crisis. so while the word is they're going to come public, that's not a total surprise. it was expected. at the same time there were bad deals like the txu deal, which is still a financial disaster which needs to be worked out. so there are a lot of good deals that are coming and the private equity guys can monetize those. there are still a lot of bad deals pre2007. >> let me just add one important thing, though. financing markets are open for corporate america. that's really important. so i think we are going to see more deals. no doubt. >> two things. first of all, we're only seeing the beginning of this. i think we'll be surprised how many more deals are starting doum, how many more times we're going to walk in on a monday morning and see two deals announced over the weekend. >> what part of the market should i be in for that? >> if guy were here he'd say greenhill, lazard because they'd
get -- >> i'll tell you where we might have a deal is on palm. jon najarian, come in and stalk to me about the action we had on palm today from the prop desk. >> absolutely, simon. the action in palm was hot and heavy, bam, right from the get-go today they came-n they stepped in and bought calls. rumor was lenovo. i talked about it in the halftime report. this stock was on fire today, 20%. short interest almost 40% in the name. there's a lot of reason that people are in here scared. and who knows? maybe bono himself, with elevation partners, is stepping in to buy them. whether it's short covering or whether it's takeover, that curve that we see on takeover stocks, that's hitting right now -- >> what would you do? how would you play it, jon? >> i'm in the call spreads out in august. i was in the stock this morning. i traded out of that because shoot, it moved up 77 cents for a $4 stock. that's a windfall. and then i'm stiting out there in long call spreads in august. >> jon, talk to me about the premiums. does it make sense to even buy the stock? or if you want to speculate here on palm, does it make total sense just to go to the option market? >> i think, gary, just like you
say, total sense to be in the option market. if i'm right and this stock trades over 6 before awl august, i will triple my money in this trade. i spent about 55 cents for a $2 spread. are you kidding me? that's a great way to invest. especially with the market here. breaking out or falling back down. >> okay. i continue the quest for more names on how you can make money. dennis gartman, talk to me about the fast food companies and the restaurants. names if you would. >> names if i would. darden. you have to own darden. pane panera. what's going on in there? consumer spending is increasing at a relatively quick pace. the economy's getting better. and the input costs in grains primarily are continuing to go down. it's an easy story. >> how much higher do you think darden could go? >> write this down. until it stops. >> write it down. okay? >> hold on. you're not a technical analyst by any chance? >> we own a lot of it, and i talk to the young men who work for me and i thought of getting out of it earlier this week, and they said are you kidding? this is your story, dennis. believe this one. it continues to go up. you don't get out at this point. >> the gartman rules. >> it's one of my rules.
and i was attempting to break them. >> here's your trade, simon, again, in fast food. let's look at mcdonald's, who reports in a couple weeks. goldman sachs has an interesting note out to say talking about the call options saying that they're very cheap, for me mcdonald's is cheap when you look at also their price to cash flow. their dividend yielding's 3 1/2, they're growing in china medium talk all the time about yum. mcdonald's is going to have 2,000 outlets in there by the end of 2012. >> 52-week high we had on yum. >> i love yum even here. >> why? >> i think there's a lot of growth and it's a very, very value-oriented way to play overseas growth. one third of their business is outside the u.s. and -- >> something we're going to hear more and more of, amazing story, price to cash flow across all -- >> what name was that? >> tim was just talking about price to cash flow. now we're talking things are so cheap we're looking at price to cash. >> just one thing dennis had mentioned earlier, most people focus on these restaurant stocks and they think about the top line, the revenue line-r they bringing in people and are people paying full price. what dennis pointed out today
which i thought was incredibly interesting is that the way you're playing it now is that the input costs, the cost side of the p & l is benefiting from lower commodity prices there. and i thought that was real interesting and a unique way to look at it. >> we have some breaking news courtesy of the "new york times." dennis, pay attention. it is being reported that u.s. airways and united have held merger talks. can somebody confirm i've got that right in my ear? us airways and united in merger talks. >> i guess we sort of told you last night, did we not, that this was going to happen. not specifically this name -- >> this is about capacity. >> this is so different, this cycle. typically, what you'd have here is you'd have new competitors coming in, adding new seats, discounting, whether it be a laker airways or people express or midway. what you have right now is you have these guys taking capacity out. this is a merger that would happen because of strength right now. >> let's get to jon najarian. how do you see this at the prop desk, jon?
>> got to agree with gary on this one because you put these two together, you just took competition out of the market. that's another reason your thesis holds up and the airlines go higher, quite frankly. >> you've taken two awful airlines and are going to make an even worse airline out of them. >> that much is true. but you're taking all the competition out of the space, dennis, which is what i'm looking at. >> sure. >> although we've not seen the justice department step up and stop any of this kind of stuff. so i'm not surprised. >> they're still making a loss -- i know now you've got what was it, spirit airlines saying they're going to charge people $45 to take their handbag, jon. but this industry net net is -- >> no pocketbooks, jon. >> i missed that. >> well, the airline industry is still making a loss overall as the head of amr told me last week. >> look at the seats, the capacity. that's what gary's been talking about all week. these guys are flying -- southwest's at 81%, 82%. american airlines, i can't remember there was an empty seat. and i fly every week. these guys have cut capacity out
of the system. now all of a sudden you take two competitors and merge them. they've talked before. won't be surprised to see this deal happen. >> and the most recent deal, delta-northwest-s actually delivering higher than anticipated cost savings internally. >> as you told us earlier in the week. let's move on. next trade he warned us about how higher rates will spook stocks. let's bring in our good friend, peter boockvar of miller tabak, a "fast money" contributor. peter, was today the start of something bigger as far as you're concerned? >> well, i think the rise in interest rates that gary alluded to earlier is going to be the thing that stops this market cold. we saw the rise in rates on friday. we saw it again on monday. the market looked at it as the glass being half full because that means the economy's better, rates are higher. that's okay. but rates are not moving higher just because the economy's okay. they're moving higher because of excess supply that is beginning to spook the market notwithstanding today's auction. >> how much higher, though, do rates have to go to knock the market oust bed? the ten-year's going to fluctuate, first of all, it's
down since you've been on. we had a great auction today. 3.75 to 4.25, maybe even 4.50 by the end of the year, but that's not going to knock markets down. if you look back at two of the biggest rate hike cycles by the fed in '94 and '59 and 2004 and 2005, i mean, the market rallied 5%, 6% during that time and then went off to rally 30% after that. >> can i just point out, and peter, i'm very sad you weren't watching yesterday's show, so just for you i want to show you a chart we put up yesterday. this takes an average -- here you see two sides of the chart. six months before they start raising rates, six months after they start raising rates and you have an average there on that yellow line of how the stock market moves for the 11 rate cycles that we have on record. and you can see, peter, i hope, that after they start raising rates on average you still get another 3%. >> we just had a 75% rally. so yeah. maybe we go a little further here. but we have to remember what context the rate hikes are going to come. it's not going to be the fed.
it's going to be the market. the market has started the tightening process. so when the fed shows up, they're going to be late to the party. when the fed cut rates to zero, they didn't encourage debt extinguishment. they encouraged debt refinanc g refinancing. so in the aggregate we have debt to gdp in this country of 348%. it's down only slightly through a recession. tip think include a recession it should be down a lot more. so when you see a rise in interest rates with a very still highly levered economy it's a very dangerous combination. >> you just said it. it's relative to where rates have been. and that's exactly my point. i mean, rates are low for a reason, and that's the reason why a small -- >> in a highly leveraged economy you don't -- >> peter, let me ask you. if your thesis is correct, what are the stocks specifically that people should be wary of? >> well, we've seen a 30 basis-point increase in mortgage rates in just two weeks. so we've already seen an immediate impact to the rise in interest rates. >> but it's housing, it's banks, it's retailers i see from --
>> mortgage rates head higher combined with the end of the home buying tax credit and the end of quantitative easing and you have the perfect scenario for a double dip in the housing market. >> peter, it's great to see you. thank you very much for joining us on "fast money." >> thank you. >> gentlemen, lady, what do we think of that overall? >> i think you should go back -- >> as a stock tradable story. >> i think you go back to the 1970s. i'm the old guy here, i lived through the 1970s. we had a long period of time when interest rates went up, great stock markets in the '70s. in the early '80s you had a great time when interest rates went higher, stock prices went higher. the correlation between interest rates and stock prices actually tends to be higher interest rates because of demand -- >> you could argue that if i take your thesis that peter's got it exactly round the wrong way, if higher rates are because people are coming out of unemployment or they're more able to pay their bills, then actually it would be the housing stocks and the banks that would do better, wouldn't it? >> in fact, we're seeing actually some healing in the bad loans and npls and actually a steeper yield curve is going to be very good for that. i think this is an environment where we're getting a bit of the -- of all worlds here and
i -- >> sweet spot. >> has to stay on the sidelines because if they ever had to cut rates again then they'd really be in trouble. they're going it wait as long as they possibly have to and -- >> guess what's happened since -- >> what's happening? >> we're getting these airlines spiking. we need to take a break, but let me just show you what is happening after hours on that news that us airways and united have held talks, according to "the new york times." well, i feel as if my legs have been cut from me by the production team. that doesn't look like that's higher at all. but it was up 3.6% during the session. oh, no, it's spiking at the end! >> after hours there. >> i'm sorry. i'm still not okay with the new graphics. >> that's why we're trading, simon. sorry about that. >> back in a moment with "fast money" live from manhattan. >> announcer: our market players are always ahead of the press. >> i like borders better. the stock trades as if it's going to go bankrupt at a dollar a share, but we don't see it as a likely bankruptcy. i actually think borders group is a much more attractive
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welcome back to the after-hours action on "fast money." breaking news courtesy of the "new york times" on the airlines sector. let's get to the man who's writing it up, breaking the news, andrew ross-sorkin joins us on the fast line. what more can you tell us from this headline that there have been talks? >> well, they're knee deep in talks, and i think we are several weeks away from a deal happening. i can't tell you it's going to -- we're necessarily going to get there as these things
sometimes do break apart. but these two have been back and forth for many times. i don't know if you recall, there was talks in 2000, again in 2008. united tried to do a deal with both us air and then with continental at one point. so this is really an answer more than anything else to the delta-northwest combination and really an effort to somehow bolster their balance sheet and cut costs once again because even as the economy is getting better they have really no pricing pressure and this, again, is a cost issue. but the unions are going to play a huge role in this. >> hey, andrew, it's gary. how are you doing? congrats on this. as you've pointed out, they've done -- they've had these meetings several times before. is what you're hearing that it's us air that would be the surviving entity here, or is it the other way around? because i think that's important, going back to what happened with northwest and delta, because that did sort of set the table for how these things can play out. >> this is actually kind of interesting. i think what we're hearing is
that mr. tilton, who runs united, would end up -- would end up running the entire company. however, structurally it may end up being that us air is technically the buyer, though i should tell from you a market cap perspective us air is a smaller company, but there are some structural reasons why they may end up actually technically being the acquirer. but a lot of the terms have not been set just yet. >> andrew, are you on "squawk box" tomorrow morning again? >> i will see you tomorrow morning. >> excellent. thank you very much. andrew ross sorkin there from the "new york times" and omnipresent on cnbc. who -- what would you buy in this airline sector? who do you think's the next one to be taken out? >> it's not necessarily taken out, but i think the more rational pricing benefits jetblue. jetblue, who will be able to probably show the highest profit margins on a real recovery, will be a beneficiary. plus this code share agreement that they had last week with american airlines is a significant benefit for them. i will also say that you pointed out something important. you know what the profit margin is on charging people $45 to
bring a carry-on bag? do you know what the profit margin is? >> $45. >> 100%. don't underestimate -- >> that's a math wiz. very good. >> 100%. >> and that's american dollars. >> it's a rhetorical question. >> let's catch up with more afterhour action, shall we? let's get to the prop desk and bed, bath & beyond being watched by our good friend jon najarian. >> simon, i've got bed bath & beyond beating by at least 13 cents, and the stock is up almost $2 now. certainly a good lead-in to tomorrow's same-store sales numbers because we're going to be getting all of them. and an early easter is part of it. also some better than expected weather going into easter in much of the country. and hot topic just came out, gave some terrific guidance as well. that stock's up 17%. hott the symbol there. i do own hot topic but i didn't own them on the news. >> i don't own hot topic. wish i did.
but we do own american eagle which we bought as recently as today for what we hope are good same-store sales tomorrow. >> retail stocks have been the top performers over the last three months. when earnings do come out in a couple of weeks traders will be expecting big bets to come off in many places. >> and i think that's the point, though, simon, and karen brought this up, and i think we have to go back to this consumer credit number, which it's declined 15 of the last 17 months and the only two up months have been january where you've got seasonals. in other words, the consumer is not spending as much. we've said this all along. and the question is did we just have a rebound in spending because people came out of basically this morgue and felt through the holiday season the stock market's above 10 thourks they've got this short-term burst? the reality is the consumer has less credit than they've had in years. so -- >> up my sleeve i actually do have a top-rated retail analyst on the fast line. her name's deborah weinswig. she joins us from citigroup. deborah, do you think we're going to get more up side surprises in retail? what's your feeling as we go
into earning season? >> i think what we'll see, so we've got comps tomorrow, and typically, so it's the second month out of the three months for the quarter, and typically what we will get is an update on the quarter from an earnings perspective. i think we'll see some very nice updates from retailers tomorrow. not only in terms of up side to comps but i think we will get an update to earnings pretty much across the board -- >> if i may ask, just to bring you down to the stock level, why is nordstrom your top pick in. >> going into tomorrow nordstrom's was our top pick. we were just out to see the company yesterday in seattle. and what we're seeing across the board there is better conversion, so basically not only is there more foot traffic in but when the consumer's coming in they're liking the fashion they're seeing in the store. the company has been much more aggressive and having more fashion in the store than a year ago. so it's -- you know, nordstrom stepping up to the plate, if you will. and they're also doing much better in their direct business for the two months we have data for in 2010, both january and february, their direct comps have been north of 50%.
so they're just getting much more agrefls, and they're seeing it -- >> so how much money can i make, deborah? forgive me for interrupting. >> so our price target here is $50. >> $50. what are we trading at at the moment on nordstrom? 42. wow. >> the stock closed at $42.10 today. so -- >> deborah, it's karen, can i just jump in and ask you a question? there's two parts to earnings, the actual numbers and expectations. with the space having risen so much recently, do you think the street might be ahead of even very positive numbers that might come out tomorrow? >> well, typically in retail, especially with an easter shift, the old sages would say, you know, you typically want to sell out of -- after the easter shift and it's typically kind of sell in may and go away with retail also. by think you guys were talking about it ahead of me coming on the show. it does feel like consumers are loosening up their wallets a bit, feeling a little more confident. some of it is at the high end with the stock market. but i would say as recently as
even the holidays the consumer was a bit more cautious in their spending. we are seeing the consumer feel a little bit better -- >> i get you, deborah. we have to leave it there for time. thank you very much. lovely to see you there. thank you for the advice. we watch with huge interest. gary, bottom line it for me. >> when interest rates are going up, retail stocks are the best performing. that chart you showed before about what stocks do well, retail stocks continue to be the best-performing relative performance names in a rising interest rate environment. >> that's the fundamental view. now let's get some "options action" to place your bets. and if you like hype up the returns or the losses potentially. mike khouw joins us from cantor fitzgerald, who's been watching target in particular, i believe, mike. >> that's right. we were looking at target today. the april 55 calls were particularly active, obviously, as they were saying results coming out tomorrow. and this was some bullish activity that we were seeing there. we actually were seeing some bullish activity across the space generally. i think this is an attractive time to take a look at options partially because of one of the things karen just pointed out. this is a space that some people
might view it as slightly stretched here. also we were noticing that obviously as volatility's come out of the market the prices of options have declined. and a quick point to something tim had mentioned earlier is that one of the things we're looking at is despite the fact that volatility has gotten so low the reason we haven't seen the prices go so much higher is because the market hasn't been moving around. so that does present an opportunity to buy options. one quick point i would make, the april 55s that people were buying ahead of tomorrow's results don't incorporate earnings for target, which come out on the 19th of may. what i was looking at was buying the may 57 1/2 calls. those were trading about 60 cents when i was looking at them, the stock did fall off a bit toward the latter part of the day so, those were probably about 50 cents by the close. >> mike, is this a valuation call for you? is this really just a stock that's been dead money since the beginning of the year and and the volatility's low and you can take a cheap shot? >> that's a great point. i don't know that it's dead money necessarily -- >> that's not fair either. >> it is a cheap shot. one thing i will point out is that it is trading a little bit cheaper to some of its comps. you know, it's probably trading about 14 1/2 times earnings,
which is a little bit toward the lower end. >> hey, jon, how does it look to you at the prop desk as a trade? >> like it because just all the things mike hit. this is a cheap shot because options are down, and i like that. i also like the fact that you're focused in on same-store sales. so to the extent that you were in on this trade today it's a great trade. tomorrow the stock will be off to the races if it's a good number, and you won't get a chance. >> okay, gentlemen, we'll leave it there. let's take a quick break, pay some bills, and after that we'll come back to talk to american tower. an exclusive interview with the ceo. don't forget "options action," incidentally, which is at 5:30 eastern every friday on cnbc. bull market or bear, traders are always hungry for ideas. trading is all about strategy. and strategy... is all about information. heat mapping shows me where the money's moving. twenty five hundred stocks... one quick look. that's where the action is. plus, this amazing gadget... it's called the telephone. i can call td ameritrade anytime and talk trades, strategy...
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oh, yeah, welcome back to "fast money." at&t's overtaxed mobile network is back in the headlines today. the company will start selling minicell phone towers for your home to compensate for their weak signal. but one of the few companies working to solve the wireless traffic jam is american tower. and investors know it. the stock is up 15% against a flat market. well, certainly a flat at&t
during the course of the last few months. here to set the record straight, the ceo of american tower, jim taiclet. jim, gary is so bursting to ask you some questions here. i'll hand straight over to him. >> fantastic. hey, jim, how are you doing? >> great, gary. >> we've discussed the company as a pure play on wireless growth and so you don't have to think about what's happening with verizon or at&t as they fight each other. set the record straight. how do you benefit, how does your cash flow grow when we look at the wireless industry? >> yeah, as additional technologies get rolled out they require more network infrastructure to deliver the services you've been hearing about. our company provides that network infrastructure, the locations to put the cell sites and the radios on so your signal's going to work at the broadband speed you need. we get a lease revenue stream from that. >> would you identify the company as being more dependent to one carrier or are you participating regardless of who is able to get the -- >> we're participating very widely. we serve all the wireless customers in the u.s. in addition to that, we're outside the country in mexico,
brazil, and india at the moment. so broad exposure to lots of customers, lots of technologies. with us it's like a proxy for the entire global wireless industry. >> so when are you going to pay a dividend, do you i? >> and i would add to that i notice a lot of the tower companies are moving to some reit structures which gives you the opportunity to pay out income as ordinary divs, which also means you may not be growing as fast but obviously shareholders love to hear about dividends. talk about that a little bit. >> well, we think we can combine both sides of the story, which is a continued growth in our business, with the tax benefits of the real estate investment trust. so there will be dividends probably coming down the road within the next two to three years from our company. but we'll be able to not only pay those dividends. the cash flow levels that we generate allow us to continue to invest in capital expenditure products, new countries, new markets all along the way. so we're going to have head room above that dividend. >> i've got a question. i'm going to make this very simple. i finally guite blackberry. they finally let me have one. they're convinced i'm going to
launch missiles against the russians but i have it. we don't have good coverage in southwest virginia. are you going to make it so i can finally get an iphone? >> that's the mission of our company, is to get the signal out as far as we can get it as efficiently and effectively as we can. so we're working with the wireless carriers to try to did that. >> who's your best growth country now outside this country? you're in latin america. is it brazil? is it mexico? >> brazil and india really are the two major -- >> listen, you spent half a billion dollars to buy 4500 in india. >> that's correct. >> it's a lot of money to you but it's still only a pinprick in a country of that size even though you'll be the second largest player. >> our strategy is to have the u.s. business be the driver for our company and complement that strong u.s. business with some growth markets like india and brazil. >> let's just go around the horn and just ask people if they like this company. >> i love it. american tower really should be called global tower because 20% of their business is coming outside the states and i know they're growing in india and brazil. >> well, my former team from a disclosure standpoint owns 8 million shares of the stock.
they still own. it's still the largest investment. so i think we like it. i think i like it too. >> but it has underperformed, hasn't it? >> again, what tim brought up here is you've got to think about what this company's going to look like in three to five years. it's going to be generating a tremendous amount of cash with a very friendly shareholder focus in terms of how it will be structured. and there's very few companies, simon, that can grow and return capital to shareholders. this is one of the few. >> let me get a second derivative trade from jon najarian at the prop desk on this. >> sure, simon. just as the ceo was saying, they're going to get the signal out there but then there's the speed, which is one of the things that we all complain about. well, that's a cisco trade. so routers, cisco's the king. that super router that they announced just over two weeks ago, that's the derivative play that i'd watch as well. i love amt. i also love cisco. it was up today on a negative tape. >> let's move on. thank you for, that jon. let's get some more issues in. "pops and drops." the movers that you might have missed during the course of this wednesday's session. we kick it off way drop for
vorndo realty down 3%, karen. and i think just the victim of gravity. what comes up must come down a little. net net the last two days. nothing is happening. >> a pop for staples. up 2%. >> upgraded by barclays. that's a uk bank, right? >> correctly pronounced as well. do you have an opinion? are you going to say anything other than that? you're worth your weight in gold. a drop for ak steel down 4%. tim. >> speaking of gravity, i think it is more than a one-day trade. in fact we put a short on ak steel. get out of the steels for now. >> newmont mining. >> how could it not be up? you had gold up strongly across the board even as the euro was getting weak. when that happens mining stocks have to go higher. >> netflix finally pulls back, down 4%. >> pulls back on a barclays downgrade. do you know anything about that, simon? >> that's a uk bank, isn't it? >> barclays. >> let's move on. >> barclays. >> ciena up 1% today. gary. >> moving higher on this at&t $1 billion capital expenditure
plan. but as jim just told you at&t's going to spend m money, american tower's going tonight beneficiary. >> so you're buying american tower again for your football club? >> yeah. >> some of the stocks -- schilling it says here. they would be shining. i'm sorry. some of the stocks shining. in fact, first solar up over 6% today. >> jm solar gave an upgrade, better guidance, they'd get the whole sector working. and again if you believe the obama administration is getting people into solar and alternative fuels, this whole sector's huge. >> let's leave it there for the moment, take a quick break. book some money on the advertising. and we'll be back with more "fast money" live from manhattan.
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy china on the cheap. >> here is richard kang, chief investment officer at emerging global advisers, which manages $100 million in china and the developing world. rich, do you think this is a once in a generational opportunity after all this underperformance and all the concerns that we now have? >> hey, simon. the chinese market, like any emerging markets, will be very volatile. this will not be the only opportunity. but it's a very good one. investors have to think about the chinese market inside-out now. it's a little bit different. the consumer there is who we're relying on now. not the u.s. or the european investor. investors now have to consider where's the growth? ceremony not in the u.s. and diversification to europe and japan. you know, for what? the real returns are in emerging markets. so anytime you see a big dip, go for it. >> richard, so if they appreciate the currency, is this effectively a tax cut for their consumer? does this mean consumption in china will be that much stronger?
wouldn't i rather be going into commodities because that's what they're going to be buying more of because they can now? >> definitely get into commodities. there's no doubt about that. a name like zhangxie copper. great move. the infrastructure move to have ports and different things so they can push widgets out to walmart, that's done. now we have to think about the 750 million rural and relatively poor future middle-income consumers and what they need. >> the slight problem -- i'm a bit confused. sorry. but i was really "barron's" at the weekend, and they're talking about a speculative bubble, rapid credit growth, bubble in the property market, expensive at 3.3 times book value, outflow of funds in the first quarter, and they say south korea and taiwan might be a cheaper play on china anyway on that kind of commodities argument. do you have sympathy with "barron's"? >> well, if you happen to own some real estate in pudong or certain areas of shanghai that are expensive, if you have access to the a-share market,
which you likely don't as an american -- well, maybe you have some concerns. otherwise, if you have exposure to hong kong, where's the price now? relatively where it was three years ago. so there's very little concern in terms of the chinese assets that we're able to access. >> okay, richard, thanks for the advice. >> all right. >> richard kang joining us there. give us some trades, tim. you trade the globe for cnbc. >> absolutely. and the bottom line is chinas underperformed the last six months as richard talked about. the oil companies. pet roh china, smp sinopec. these are names that we continue to like not only because they've underperformed but because oil prices are going higher deutsche bank just raised their outlook for wti the reality is these will be priced higher. chinese companies are going to brazil to buy licenses. these are names that big cap emerging market oils underperformed, and this is a great time to be buying names you that wanted to own in 2007. >> thank you. it's time now for the cold calling segment of the program that's sweeping the nation. one trader, one stock, 30 seconds to make their case or else they get a dial tone.
dennis gart mon now giv dennis gartman now gives us the pitch. >> i've had plenty of dial tones in my life. i'm going to continue to be a buyer of gold. that mains want to buy gld. because of diversification. if you're one of the administrators for a reserve position for one of the large central banks in china, indonesia, india, you've looked at the euro, it's caused you problems. you see the despondency taking place in greece. and you have to go someplace. you're leaving the euro. you're moving out of that, moving into gold. gld is the simplest, cheapest, and best, the purest play in the united states. i'm a buyer of gold. i don't like gold. i'm not happy with gold. i'm not a gold bug. it's a diversification. >> that's perfect. you practiced that. >> can i ask you a question? >> yes, you may. >> does it concern you how popular a retail trade this is? >> it doesn't bother me as much as it might have because when i'm watching television what's interesting to me, i see more commercials for people wanting to sell gold than i see commercials for people wanting to buy gold. gold's a psychological circumstance. and i don't see that much enthusiasm, i don't see the public out there buying gold and
becoming enamored of it as they did in the early 1980s, when we had the hunts involved. >> i agree with dennis. i would also then move out into the other pgms that have industrial uses like platinum and pa laidium. buy still watter, swc, this is the largest in north america. if gold's gone higher and i agree because the euro's going to stay weak then buy the other guys that are going to go up even more. >> it feels as though one of the results of the credit crisis was people said we're going to put 10% of a portfolio in gold and leave it there. they're not looking to trade, it just sort of bought, it put it in their portfolio, whether through an etf or stock, and that doesn't seem to be like something that people want to move with. they're going to keep it there. >> people are going to always keep 5% or 10% of their money in gold. but for me the big trade, the thing that's driving it forward is what's going on in the central banks in if you're the people's bank of china-f you're the reserve bank of india, you've had euros, you're a little disconcerted about that, you're moving elsewhere. >> dennis, we make it the poflt d poll of the day. tonight's question on "fast money," are you buying dennis gartman's pitch?
a, no thanks. b, i'm sold. log on to fastmoney.cnbc.com right now to vote. gary. >> yeah. >> shall we recap yesterday's pitch you that gave us? >> let's do. >> which was essentially -- if you could in just ten seconds -- >> can you read the teleprompter, gary? >> i can't do it in 30 seconds. how am i going to do it in ten seconds? >> there you go. okay. >> anyway, the point is 60% didn't like it. 61% said no thanks, gary xhinstxhins kaminsky. 39%, which actually isn't bad, said yes, gary xhinsty, i'm buying. >> the stock was up 4% today, right? >> that would be the -- >> more "fast money" up next on cnbc.
have you been watching what they're doing on "fast money"? >> yes, i sure have. >> this is a takeoff on the basketball collegiate things where they work down. well, people vote on all these stocks as to who thinks is a better stock. >> that's a great idea. >> and who did they vote for? apple. >> regis announced it on "fast money" last night. >> oh, you did? i missed it. i was watching "the bachelor."
>> and the trophy goes to apple. >> to apple. there you go. >> yes. regis philbin was on last night. did us the courtesy of announcing the winner of our viewers' poll for the stock they most prefer. apple was clearly the winner. and he took it on his own show today. apple just getting back down to the stock trades, gary, could be a real mover for the newspaper industry. >> well, that's one of the things that may help the newspaper industry. when we talked about the airlines earlier, there's another industry that's been sort of left for dead in terms of making money and that's been the newspaper stocks, which have done unbelievable in the last year for a number of reasons. again, like airlines, you've had a lot of capacity come out. a lot of mom-and-pop operations are gone. a lot of newspapers folded. you've had no new capital go into the industry, and those that are surviving are finding new revenue streams. and so these are companies that given the lack of competition and whether it be the apple, the ipad, these are the new ways to deliver what is proprietary information. >> fantastic news. we need to take a quick break
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yoer reporter, who has some breaking news. darren, good evening. >> good evening, simon. nike has confirmed to cnbc that it will indeed run an ad with tiger woods and the voice of his late father, earl woods, who died in 2006. a nike spokesman, darren kent, giving us this statement -- "we support tiger and his family as he returns to competitive golf. the ad addresses his time away from the game using the powerful words of his father." the text of that ad we also have here. this is, again, the voice of earl woods. "tiger, i am more prone to being inquisitive, to promote discussion. i want to find out what your thinking was. i want to find out what your feelings are. and did you learn anything?" woods appears in black and white, as you might have seen on that screen grab. and it was shot in isleworth, which is tiger's country club, a couple weeks ago. it will appear on youtube around 6:00, and it will be on both espn and the golf channel within
the next hour. simon, back to you. >> okay. darren, thank you very much for that update. darren rovell reporting exclusively for cnbc. briefly let's get the final trade. around the horn. tim i'll kick off with you. >> reverse on u.s. steel today, get out. >> gary. >> airlines continue. this is great. >> karen. >> i like aeu. >> dennis. >> own restaurant stocks. >> brilliant. that's it. good night.
i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> firms are going to go out of business, and he's nuts! they're nuts! they know nothing! >> i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere. and i promise to -- >> "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. >> hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. not my cup of tea. my job is to try to help you make money and give you a little entertainment and to educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. what an ugly day! looks like the don't worry be happy mob got overrun by the bears, the grecian bonds, the worries about mortgage rates, the dissension on the fed.
maybe the concerns about the recovery are right smack dab back on the front page. maybe the fretters have reemerged and are taking action. >> sell sell sell. >> what else with the dow getting crushed for 72 points and the s&p getting ripped for just over half a percent. people were speculating all day about what caused the sharp mid-afternoon turn. some said it was the kyrgz -- kyrgyz opposition forcing that country's government to resign. i dismiss that out of hand because the 24 coming attractions give you no hint the government might fall despite, spoiler alert, spoiler alert, president hassan's sachx. then i heard ben bernanke in his new role as downer in chief made us worry about the susta sustainability of the recovery and he gave us a terrific reason to ring the register and no doubt go buy some high-quality