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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  July 20, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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watching "street signs." hope you have a great weekend. we don't work for free, "closing bell" next. hi, everybody. good afternoon. we're in the final stretch for the week. welcome to "closing bell," i'm maria bartiromo. the market down sharply today and new worries. the euro zone worries are front and center, but the dow and s&p are on track for their second gain. >> we'll keep you updated on the tragic evented in aurora, colorado, where 12 people have been killed and some 59 others have been injured following a shooting in a movie theater
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there. we'll have a update for you in a few minutes. >> take a look at where we substantial. the dow now down 125 points, about 1% lower. yields on debt in spain in italy. the nasdaq weaker, better than 1%. and the s&p 500 also down by about 1% right now sitting at 1363. >> looks like a battle between the reality of a slowing economy on the one side and the hope of more fed action on the other. and today the worriers are winning the exchange. we're joined by our guests today, and peter, we have economic reality on one hand, and on the other we have monetary hope. how does this play out? >> i think the u.s. economy possibly by the fourth quarter will be in a recession, and recession usually comes with
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bear markets. we have central banks around the world doing everything they can to keep us out of further weakness. the only reason that the s&p's are because of the prospect -- >> so which it really that spike in yields, the spanish debt, and the italian debt that unnerved the markets? what's behind this? it feels like it's a real headline risk driven market. >> yes, it reinforces the difficulty europe is having. it's on the heels of what the market thought would cure this. it's sovereign from the bailout to the individual banks and people realizing it's not as clear as that. that recession is likely intensifying. it's slowing down, and i think the u.s. economy is heading to a recession and there is negative
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implications for earnings. >> let's talk about earnings, because as peter says, we're going toward a recession here. we have chipotle today with bad guidance and revenue growth slowing there. should investors be more concerned than they seem to be? >> i think they should. since the end of the great recession in 2009, on average 79% of companies beat estimates. so far 120 companies reported and 67% beating estimates. so that 50% is not the benchmark, it's 71. earnings growth on a year over year basis is negative right now. the street is expecting around negative 2% and even revenue sales growth right now is expected to be around 1.5% for a year over year basis. so we have no revenue growth,
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and that would fit with the forecast of a recession. that's usually an environment for a recession. >> jim, if estimates keep coming down, do you think the market trades lower from here? what kind of negative situation is priced into this market, and if we were to see estimates continue to come down, how does that impact trading in your view? >> i think in a normal vierkt the market would be coming down, but overriding all of this is the hope that the he'd will print more money via qe 3, and people don't the to get too bearish because they think bernanke will ride to the rescue. it's artificially protecting the market. they keep worsening, but we don't want to get bearish because we will have another up week again, and it's more driven by fed policy than the prospects that things are getting better. >> bob pisani, we've had up days
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and down days, what's moving the markets now? >> what happened is europe has not been a lot of headline risk this month since the last meeting of the euro zone leadership. it's not the bank bailout, it's the regional government asking for aid now. we have a bank bailout, we could need a regional bailout. other than that i agree with jim. earnings are okay, so far it's the revenue that's there. we're not seeing any revenue growth at all. less than 40% of the companies are beating on the top line right now. >> that's a big deal, right, bob? when you talk about earnings beats you're saying you could get there any which way. that tells you really where the business is. >> right, you can change the amount of shares, you can do buy
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backs, but the top line growth, that's the problem with the global economy right now. >> does that bother you peter or jim? >> sure. we had a multiyear, the bottom, in earnings. and that's the worry that's now played out. at the same time the corporate profit margins have multiplied. people are basing the market on 100 eps will be disappointed. >> the big bunny is in the fourth quarter and they're expecting increases in financials and 20% increases in profits in the fourth quarter. that's a tall order at this point spop a lot of these earnings are all now pushed into the fourth quarter. i was very heartened by the fact that general electric did not
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change their guidance. i was heartened by that fact. >> i don't understand that thinking. why that. >> rick: they betting on 20% growth? >> the theory is the global economy will start improving by the fourth quarter. this has been built in for awhile now. theres that been an assumption that it would accelerate in the third and the fourth quarter. >> thanks, everybody. we'll keep following this market that has the dow jones down 124 points. we want to turn to the latest on a tragic shoots in aurora, colorado. a man entered the theater and killed 12 pete during the latest opening for the batman film. we start outside the apartment complexion with jeremy from kusa, exactly what have police
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found? >> it's kwies disturbing what they're telling us they're finding in this apartment complex centered in this area here. all day this neighborhood has been cris crossed with yellow police tape. but this red, brick, unassuming apartment complex is the residence of james holmes. we're told in his apartment there are numerous 1 liter bottles with an unidentifiable liquid, and there are wires. he calls it a booby trap. the police department told us they set up a circumstance where they were able to point a camera through the window of the apartment and take numerous
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pictures, and they're trying to dissect the apartment before they move in and disable all of that explosive equipment in there. police also have evidence in there they would like to get out of there. that would probably tell us more about who this james holmes is, back to you. >> thank you, we'll keep following that. it's a stunning blow to the movie industry as well. here is julia. >> movie theaters have also been a place for americans to escape the harsh realities out of outside world, and now movie theaters are doing everything they can to prevent that. last night "dark knight rises" had the second highest box
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office midnight opening in history. now teams are senning out security to keep copy cats from acting. the place where the tragedy occurred said they're working closely and the members are working closely with local law enforcement agencies and reviewing security procedures. they have not cancelled any screenings, but has pulled a trailer for gangster war chswar. i'll be back in the next audience with more updates, maria. the movie premiered scheduled for paris has been cancelled, but movie theaters in hollywood are trying to go about business
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as usual. >> we've got about 50 minutes of trading left before the closing bell, the last of the week. the do you is down about 113 points. >> is more regulation headed wall street's way in the way of jpmorgan's trading loss and the rate rigging scandal? roger is with me. >> and can taco bell really lure away chipotle's customers? the taco bell ceo will join us after this. and annoying account fees. at e-trade, our free easy-to-use online tools and experienced retirement specialists can help you build a personalized plan. and with our no annual fee iras and a wide range of low cost investments, you can execute the plan you want at a low cost. so meet with us, or go to for a great retirement plan with low cost investments. ♪
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we have about 45 minutes of trading left to go in today's session, time for a quick stat check on the dow. it was nice while it lasted, the do y dow is on track to snap are three-day winning streak. right now as you see, the dow down more than 100 points. there is ge, just one of two dow
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components in the green today. the other one, wall street. the only other blue chip posting gains in this cause of 79 cents. >> despite a profit set back in china, they saw earnings up as more american consumers gobbled up tacos. >> it's taco bell stores saw a double budget growth in the u.s. thanks to the popularity of the doritos locos tack toes, and they just rolled out their cantina menu of gourmet food. is that such a good idea giveen what's happening with chipotle today. the biggest drobs evp ever.
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down 21%. let's talk to greg creed who joins us now. the increase clearly because, i guess, your product mix has appeal, right? >> that's very true. it was a very strong second quarter, and we had a historical launch with the doritos locos tacos. as of yesterday there was some 65 million of those tacos. >> say that again. >> we sold 165 million shells as of yesterday i believe. >> 165 million -- how are you dealing with higher commodity cost and weakening consumer spending?
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>> i think there is two things. on the consumer spending side you have revolutionary products. the macros are not as much of a head wind. so the launch of the doritos locos tacos and the cantina bell. on the commodities front, we're in a pretty good position. we're a part of yum, and the buying of food and packaging. >> tell me where the growth comes from in the next few years. we see what has happened to chipotle. they were generating profitability for so many years, are you having issues similar to what we are seeing from chipotle today? >> no, we had a strong second
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quarter. cantina bell is having a very strong launch, and they never had sort of a public response like the cantina bell. they are saying how much the visitors are just coming in and talking about how wonderful the cantina bell product is? >> is it more high-end? is that the way to go? such a focus on obesity and l g longevi longevity, offering real chicken breasts or health an terntives. >> they wanted a better taco bell and a real taco bell. things like doritos taco makes us more relevant, if you can be relevant you will grow in any condition. >> e we understand you're coming
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to us from denver nearby was the shooting this morning, can you tell us about the mood out there, is there any down tick in your business today in the denver area, or have you responded with more security? >> sure, i arrived this morning, tyler. everyone is veriy esad. it's a very somber mood, i have not seen much of an impact on our business but that's not very important. people have been impacted for such a tragedy. it's very sad and somber, and people are looking for answers, and it's a shame that this happens in our society today. >> we appreciate you being with us today, and continued good fortune to you, and may you have 165 million more taco bell shells there. >> thank you, we're in the final stretch with about 41 minutes
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until the closing bell sounds. the tone set in europe with spanish yields impacting the banks. >> and we have more to cover on the closing bell. >> general electric posting bet ere than expected numbers. will that help fuel a rise in the stock? the trade is next. plus yahoo's new ceo scoring a big payday, so where is the pay outrage when it comes to her deal? do you think there would be more outrage over her pay package if she was a wall street ceo? tweet us. control. ♪ during the golden opportunity sales event, get great values on some of our newest models. this is the pit of perfection. that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything.
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welcome back, commodities selling off wh stocks today. >> hi, many commodities were lower on the session, but the crb index is still up on the week thanks to the gains we have seen in the oil market with wti futures above $91 a barrel and the gains in corn and wheat that are up over 30% in the last month. we're also looking at copper because that was the big loser on the day. they're down significantly as concerned about china's housing policy has led to many to sell that metal.
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china is one of the biggest consumers of copper in the world. so as a global growth story, it will go and so will the rest of the commodity sector. we'll continue to watch copper in the week ahead. >> here is ge trading higher today. the company today reporting earnings and beating the expectations by a penny and saying it will break up the energy infrastructure business. still, for the long term, investors have watched shares under pressure. the stock is down more than 20% over the last decade. so is now the time to step in and buy the stock? let's talk numbers for ge. daniel holland is with me, good to have you on the program, thank you for joining us. greg, let's talk about the charts. >> in general, you have to keep in mind that ge is up 11% this
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year from january 3er. ge outperformed the market by about 5%. in the last several months, ge traded in a three-point trading range. so unless you caught the stock just right, it's been a very tough trading range for ge. in addition, 21-day moving average line flattened out recently, and price action is just below it. so the 21-day moving average line has resistance to 20. so the indifference from the trading crowd, i really this this is opportunity because i would not be buying ge here. if you owned it coming into the year, old it, but i think it's a tough trading triermt for it. >> what do you need to see to feel like the stock goes higher.
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>> to break above 21 would be a fugue gain. closing above 20 gives you juice, but a point or two not worth it. >> do you agree here daniel? what do you expect for fundamentals. >> i would say the company is in a place that you want to be. it has continued to do what it says from an execution standpoint, and is exposed to the right businesses at this point in time in the economic cycle. we'll leave it there, thank you for being with us on the program. >> right now the dow is down 112 and the nasdaq by 33.75 with 44 minut minutes before the closing bell. kayak is skyrocketing today. is fender right or is the
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welcome become, a pair of ipos making their debut today. they're the first technology offering since facebook back in may. they're 30% higher in kai yak. >> another company got cold feet last night. the car maguitar maker fenner p back at the last minute. will we see more down days like this one? we have two guests with us right now to talk about it. we see that spanish yields are above 7% and that basically takes out the banks and leads this market lower, are we back to worrying about europe, how worried are you about these yields in europe?
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>> i think the spanish leader made a comment that things are more severe than the markets had been anticipating. they had a bond auction as you know that went poorly yesterday, so you have seen that and you have seen also they're starting to get pushed a little by italy where yields are up above 6%. you would like to see them come down. that having been said, the earnings have been quite strong especially in the tech sector. yesterday you have microsoft, apple, next week you had qualcomm and ibm. the final thing is the earnings season, the rest that we have, we're expecting it to be u o 6%, and if you take out the financials, it's actually down 1%. we would like to express our condolences to the families of the folks in colorado.
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>> you're right, thank you for that, david. megan, let me ask you about yield in this environment, do you see the same kind of interest in fixed income. people afraid about losing money rather than looking for yield? >> yeah, it's been a massive amount of inflow in fixed income, and one of the things that people get nervous about a lot. we see a ton of money going into bonds. you can't really look at the past as a future indicator of performance. so where we look to seek yield is in some of the higher yielding securities, but despite a challenging decade, we're still overweight credit in our portfolios. >> david, let me ask you how to activate your high boypothesis.
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you have a lot of people listed here, mcdonald's, pepsico, 3 m, if that's the kind of investor you counsel me to be, why should i not just go buy an s&p index fund where i can get the same stocks at extraordinarily cheap price? >> david? >> 22% bullish and 42% bearish right now maria on the american association of individual investors poll that was just released yesterday, and that 22.42, it's 39% bulls and 40% bears. so there is a big overweight to the bearish side short term that's usually a sign of a little bit of rally. if you get some of the calming down that we hope for in europe you can see the markets lift here. driveen by financials. you saw it last week and the week before. the financials are the leader of
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the market. they they have been doing well and we had sloppy earnings report from the financials for the rest of the week. >> did david not hear my question? >> the question was basically among your stock picks are a tremendous number of very fine blue chip companies from microsoft, to pepsico, if those are the kinds of stocks that you think i would do well holding, why not just hold them. >> yes, tyler we like tech quite a bit. our big overweight is in health care this week. our u.s. equities strategy team, they upgraded to overweight, and they have a strong hiking for the apples, the microsofts, the qualcomm. we like this, we like abbot, pfizer, and jaurns and johnson. >> jump in here. >> looking in the fixed income
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markets, we're looking for things that are technically cheap. if you want high sing r or low double digit returns we look at the currency markets to bounce off of some relatively depressed levels. mexico for example expected at 3.5 gdp this year. labor might look cheap relative to china so you will see movement there. we think very strong fundamental levels. >> we'll look for currencies then, thank you so much, we appreciate it and we'll see you soon. >> 25 minutes left until the closing well, and the dow is about about 123 points. a 1% slide or a little more. >> up next, as one of the most powerful lours on wall street,
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nasdaq is the weakest performer today after leading the market higher. courtney reagan as nasdaq with more on that and more on kayaks first day of traying. >> three to one decliners here. kayak's first day stocks moving up 30%. the ceos were on the floor when the ipo first hit. and they were very excited. they said they didn't expect
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such a pop, but it's not all positive. look at shares of intuitive surgical. they reported nice earnings, but say there was a decline in domestic prostate cancer surgeries. >> thanks so much. it has been two years since wall street dodd frank law came into law. and since then only two parts have been completed. they're issuing a report saying compliance costs are expected to exceed $7 billion. so with the jpmorgan scandal and the trading loss, is it any safer now. we have the trama surgeon of wall street with us now for helping us come out of the 2008 krusz alive, rodgin cohen is
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joining us. thank you for being here. >> my pleasure. >> you said in the past you believed there was a good dodd frank and a bad dodd frank, can you make the distinction? >> yes, the good makes those divisions that directed to problems that clearly existed. we did not have a resolution system for major institutions. we had too big to fail. we had to deal with those entitled to dodd frank and does an excellent job. the bad parts are those that don't serve a legitimate regulatory purpose. for example, the durbin amendment that was simply a wealth transfer from banks to major retailers. >> that's a good point. i want to go through some of the
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aspec aspects. let's look at the volcker rule. is that why it's bad under the same umbrella as deposits? >> perhaps it is, but i think it must be remembered that it's difficult to pass laws that outlaw stupidity, a i think jamie dimon got it exactly right. if you do stupid things it doesn't matter what laws are in place, and that was a question of stupidity rather than he will g -- legality. >> so you think this was really just a bad trade, you're saying, it was stupid? >> exactly. there are merits to the volcker rule for depository institutions. >> our regulatory environment is
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still remaining under scrutiny. when you look at the barclays rate rigging scandal, was the fed doing their job and if they missed it, how can we expect to to catch it. >> this occurred predominantly four years ago before dodd frank and at a time of an incredible financial crisis. i think it is very difficult to generalize from the pressure to bring libor rates down into some indictment of the industry as a whole. you cannot excuse some of the actions which took place, but again, there will always be problems, and you're never going to be able to legislation or regulate everything out of the system. >> we know that bar clays has been under fire, bob diamond
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losing his job from this? >> i hope we will take some idea of the fact that it was in the past, and understand that we need to move forward. there is almost an urge for punishment. that does not help us very much. what we really need to do is figure out how to deal with our rate setting mechanisms. what should we be doing to prevent something like this going forward? >> what does the banking system look like? do you think we will see some of these large banks get smaller? >> i do not think we're going to see, at least over the next few years, any consolidation over the largest institutions. the federal reserve made it very clear they do not want to see any more consolidation at the
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top. we will continue to see, i think, a fair number of mergers below that level because there was a number of regulatory and economic pressures to merge, and we will see a shrinkage of the largest banks, but it must be remembered that the growth that is often referred to in the largest banks was almost entirely a product of rescue acquisitions. there has been very little in organic growth or acquisitions. >> rodgin, let me switch your attention to the martin act. i had a conversation last week with ellioiot spitzer, and he k bringing up the hank greenberg case, and we so e that he had a
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victory when he was able to have an appeals court look at the fraud charges thatliot spitzer has thrown out. the new question is is the martin act constitutional? i'm wondering what you feel about this martin act, and whether or not we see a real big impact, if in fact this martin act is ruled or deemed unconstitutional. what does that mean for this case and other cases like it? >> certainly if it was deemed unconstitutional, you take away what has been a very powerful weapon for new york attorneys general for some time. certainly that act has been expanded in it's reach beyond the original purpose which was to get it boiler room operations into a comprehensive financial institutions regulatory statute. so if it is declared
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unconstitutional, yes, that's an important result. >> all right, we will be watching that. thank you for being on the program and for your insights. >> that was terrific, what a fascinating guy he is. we have about 13 minutes left of the trading day to go. >> wall street and your quality feeling the fallout today. will it carry over into next week? we'll check it out. >> if it's not europe, it's the looming fiscal cliff. we'll have more coming up for you.#a #a#a#a#a#a#a'9#a+=#a#a#a#a#a +g#a
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and a dreary day in new york and fears of the debt crisis reemerging today. >> yes, the dow and the nasdaq losing gains for the month. the nasdaq is down 37 and the s&p down 13 points.
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sort of a vicious cycle because when rates and spain get above 7%, it makes it hard for them to pay their bills and get out of this vicious cycle. so when you see spanish ten-year at 7% or higher they start selling off. >> and there you see it today, money coming into treasuries and the fear trade taking every yet again, and you saw yet again today a new high, or six-month high for natural gas as money coming back into that market. it's been a very interesting weak. we had a multi200 point gain, and the fact of the matter is we will end on a down note here. >> we are, and the market steady going into the close had handed on to the decline of 114 points. the leading groups on the way down right now, ty.
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>> we'll come right back with the closing count down. >> and why is there no outrage of a marisa meyers big pay package, the debate is coming up, why there seems to be a double standard. we want your take. [ male announcer ] while many automakers are just beginning to dabble with the idea of hybrid technology... it's already ingrained in our dna. during the golden opportunity sales event, get great values on some of our newest models. this is the pursuit of perfection. who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel.
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five minutes left in the trading session, and now it's time for the closing countdown. >> thank you, we're approaching the close and with us is allen valdez from dmc securities. the market is down about 117 points. is this an indicator of how we might open on monday? >> i'm not putting too much into it. it is an option expiration, guys taking some money off the table here. we've been missing on the revenue about 45% of the time so
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far. >> a catalyst will be on earnings. and second half of the year, estimates are still coming down, what are you expecting for the second half of the markets? >> we're expecting a weak second half and the worries as we approach 2013 about taxes going up, okay, and spending going down. 75% of the fiscal cliff is increased taxes, and 20% of it is cuts. secondly you have energy prices down and interest rates down. that is cutting into the earnings of physicfinancials an number companies. earning wills only be up as you know 2.7% this year. the consensus is for them to be up next year, and next year down 1% next year, and the consensus is for them to be up another
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12%, we're $20 less. $98 is our number for 2013. we want to wish our u.s. olympic team all the best one week from today. the opening ceremony. 2012, go team usa. >> all of the nbc stations will be covering that. tyler over to you. >> let me get your reaction to what david just talked about there. he lays out a high both sit about the markets from now until the end of the year, do you share his view? >> i think we will see a repeat of last year. i think the market will flat line and then muddle through the fall and winter, i don't sigh any reason to be in those stocks, i don't think it will be too positive going forward, that will set the pace for the dollar, you tell me where the
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euro is and i'll tell you where the dollar is. >> as you handicap the risks, what is the one you would put number one on your list of concerns? >> it's definitely europe. i think the financial cliff, i think we'll walk away from that. i don't see any politician taking us to that level. i think europe is definitely in play, and i don't think they will have their act thogt year. i think it will be quite awhile. we saw events in spain over 7% again, and i think that will be problem again. >> so why do you want to trade going into next week then? what will be the catalyst? earnings or the 7% yield in spain? >> the 7% yield in spain. you saw today earnings were good. spain into the picture like we saw last night, and right away
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the market goes south because of the dollar going up and the euro going down. >> on a a short term basis, the worse things get, the more likely they might do something or in the september meeting, do something of a quantitative easing measure. we think they will be weak and slo sloppy, you want your basic large global gorillas that have a global footprint. >> even as the rest of the world slows down? >> even as it slows down, the exposure to global market growth that is higher. >> david, we need to do rhythmic gymnastics right here


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