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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  August 7, 2012 11:00pm-12:00am EDT

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i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> they're nuts. they know nothing. "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, just trying to make you a little money. calm me at 1-800-743-cnbc. this show is based on one radical idea that it's possible for you to make more money investing for yourself than hiding your money in bonds. the pundits say it's too hard.
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ordinary people can't invest for themselves and shouldn't bother trying. i know from experience from running a half a billion dollar hedge fund for 14 years that you can do it as long as you're willing to put in the time and the effort and you have the inclination. in order to be a good investor you need to understand how the stock market works. i'm devoting this show entirely to educating you. sharing some of the most important lessons i've learned. before you can start learning about stocks, there's some lessons that need to be unlearned. there needed to be demolished. one of the most myths is the notion that market is already rational. the action always makes sense. that simply isn't true. on any given day the action in the market can be nonsensical.
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stocks can go up when they should have gone down and vice versa. entire sectors can move for totally bogus reasons. it's how job in the media to make sense of what happened. sometimes we go too far. trying to find the logic behind moves that are nothing more than tales told by idiots full of sound and furry signifying nothing. never assume that just because something happened it has to make sense because the market always makes sense. not on the short term basis because it's nonsense. it's important to be able to say these moves are just nuts. they don't make any sense at all. once you start cook can go up concoctions and connections with none really exist, you're in trouble as you can make yourself believe just about anything. you see sometimes stocks or the whole market will go up or down reasons that has nothing to doed with the economy. you want to take advantage of the ir rationality, not buy into
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it. for example, when ever we get a huge pull back and the stock market gets killed. the kind of day that just annihilates people, there will be a lot stofcks that went down. hedge funds in trouble start selling. not because they want to but they have to raise money to pay back their clients that are busy singing bob marly's redemption song. regular sellers become too a frad to buy or they get blown out. people in the press are starting to cook up reasons to explain why things that don't normally go down together are all down at once. goad goes up when everything goes down because people flee to gold for safety. there are some days that when gold goes down too. when you hear that, you have to draw a line. you have to draw a line between the notion of observation and explanation.
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gold and oil are down for example. that doesn't mean that gold is down because of oil. those are bogus. how do you explain this? sometimes it's about the fundamentals of the money management business of which i am from. to understand these moves, i want you to go back to 2008. even the wild summer of 2011 we saw this kind of violence action. back then the worst mistake, the most common mistake was to say that because something traded at a given level it deserved to trade there. if price was right. that's how you got people believing it was right for oil to trade at $147 a barrel. they thought it was right when oil fell to $33 a barrel. if you never read a single story, you'd say that's the wrong price. that's contrived. that's an exaggeration. it can't be explained by the facts on the ground. you need to explain them based on the facts of wall street. when i first started trading 30
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years ago we measured the stock by the prospect of the underlying company. what the earnings might be or worth to another company to acqui acquire. hutch cash does it have does it make a lot of money off the cash? when we started to put stocks in giant baskets. didn't have the s&p 500. when we developed that instrument, we linked all stocks together as an asset class. you know what happened, they all started to trade together in lock step whether the prospects were good or bad, positive or negative. this turning stocks into one big commodity wasn't just limited to this country. one buy one other country's stock markets were commoditied too. money managers, hedge fund managers were able to pool vast amounts of money together. amounts of money so vast thai tried to buy individual stocks,
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they would buy all the shares of many of them. that's how much cash they had. then the hedge funds had to gravitate to something bigger, the futures market. they developed a group think. they started to trade in sync with each other. any given time the stocks just don't, you can't buy enough stock of a company so you have to go buy the future . some of these big hedge funds will own the company. they bought the same commodities and sold the same commodities. they did it with borrowed money. they had so sell, sell, sell. sell everything. everything they had because they were positioned wrong. their survival, the management companies was at stake. at the time they called hedge funds gone wild. it was going to create fabulous buying opportunities. no everything to go down. many, but not everything.
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they didn't all deserve to go down as far as they did. this kind of thing continues to happen to this day including the hazy crazy summer of 2011 because so many hedge funds still buy and sell stocks the same wake lie way like commodities. the next time you see everything go down at once with the market seeming to move in lock step, before you try to cook up excuses or believe in excuses why the market makes sense, ask yourself if we're seeing the results of hedge funds gone wild. the bottom line, market doesn't always make sense especially on a daily basis. when everything goes down, think about whether the move was caused by the fundamentals of the wall street management business and of out of control hedge funds. let's go to howard in florida. >> caller: thanks for taking my
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call. >> how can i help? >> caller: you've commented about machine trading we're seeing in the market and it seems to be apparent on the melt up and melt down days. what do you think the sec might do about the fht's if it seems the market is becoming a super short term trading system? >> great question. the sec very recently blessed it. they blessed it in a no action letter where they talk about how a lot of this bundle and etfs that they really can affect prices. the market is too deep. we don't have a deep market. consequently these products are whipping around. don't expect them to reverse it now. it's too embarrassing for the people who wrote, who opined that it was okay. russell in missouri. >> caller: what is the disadvantage of triple leverage
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afs? >> the disadvantage is they are marked to market every day. what happens is their trading vehicle frs the day and reset at the the end of the day. you could have a negative, you could have an etf that bets against bank stocks and they can go down very big. because they didn't go down on a given day, you're going to lose money. they're not way to bet against bank stocks over the long term. it's way to bet it on that day. it's a flawed product. everybody should get rid of these. dave in wisconsin. >> caller: how you been, man? >> pretty good. how about you? >> caller: doing okay. listen, i was chomping at the bit to buy some chesapeake. i use the dollar cost averaging strategy but the higher volatility, i use 20% increments instead mark for identification normal 33%. what do you think about loring your increments during high
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volatility? >> let's just forget individual stock. let's talk about stocks generically. you got to be comfortable with your scale. sometimes a $10 stock, by my next allotted ten and next six. sometimes i'll by at six and ten and then at two. i like to adjust the scales. i don't want to buy too much at once. i like wide scales when the market is crazy. before you panic. stop and think about who is killing our profits. if it's to the fundamentals maybe it's just the fundamentals of the management business. "mad money" will be right back. okay, here's the plan.
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when there are huge losss in the market you'll have opportunity to buy stocks that have become bad because the market became bad. you'll catch me saying things like buy broken stocks, thnot broken companies. it's the kind of saying that doesn't do you any good on its own. in a serious correction, almost everything that will go down. a lot of stocks that don't deserve to will decline along those that do deserve to be
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allowe lower. i give you a new way to look at stocks during a sell off. to help lead you away from broken companies and toward broken stocks. what's a broken company? corrections have causes. in 2007 we had multiple sell offs related to weak real estate market, lots of subprime loans and the shall lacking. what you got was a credit crisis. people couldn't get loans. liquidity out and along with that came the big sell off. we had debt ceiling concerns in the u.s. with an s&p credit down rating. when you find yourself in the midst of a sell off look at the companies that caused it because they are probably broken. in 2007 that meant everything touching housing, mortgages or really any kind of lending like
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the fannie and freddie. if you're looking at company, i can't guarantee anything but you're looking at a broken company. then there's another group of companies that's not as bad as the first group. these are companies that might not be directly related to the cause of the sell off, but whatever caused the sell off should cause the companies to make a lot less american in earnings per share going forward. financials will be a great group. they found themselves in the cross hairs of government regulation after the great recession. slower gdp equals slower growth for the sector. a company that becomes broken when you had for liking it goes away. a company does not break when its stock goes lower. in 2007 a great example was many of the terrific infrastructure stocks that get marked down. none of these businesses will be affected by the credit crisis.
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that meant the businesses weren't necessarily broken. the stocks went down because all stocks were going down. there wasn't a connection to the causes of the sell off or to put another way, you don't want to buy the stocks that are leading the decline when look for an opportunity in the sell off. you want to look for stocks in the area of what's independent even if you think you're approaching a bottom and the worst performers are about to become the best, that's rarely a safe bet. once a company breaks it's difficult to mend itself. that's only true for sectors that control half of a stock movement. a sector is so important. there will be stocks that have a clear reason for going lower. once it gets sold along with everything else, first the broken companiecompanies, avoid. is second group is broken
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stocks. that's where you want to do your buying. let's go to patrick in arizona. how can i help you? >> caller: we talk about downturn, weaknesses, pull backs, corrections. i'm trying to figure out when is a good time to buy the stock when you say this stock is good. if you get a good pull back. how do i recognize the anatomy of a pull back or when to buy that stock? >> all right. one of the things i like to look at when the fundamentals are in good shape and let it pull back 5 to 8%. that's my rule of thumb p. secondarily when you have a huge market to take everything down, wait until the recession stocks that tends to be a theory, wait until the recession proof stocks
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are con ed bottom. the next lechl, we look at those recession stocks. when they bottom we buy our next quarter. douglas in california. >> caller: thanks for keeping it real. >> thank you for calling. >> caller: i'd like to ask you a couple of questions if i may. >> sure. >> caller: after reading your stock replacement strategy, i'm into trading. i would like to ask how does the vics move the market or how does the market move the vix? >> it's a measure of what's the stock is oscillating. it goes up and down. the wide swings tell you the emotion. it's a gauge of emotion. how about that. it's an actual way to put the numbers to a motion. when we get emotional, emotional
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and extremes of emotion, i find that you want to be a buyer when you get that extreme motion down and you want to be a seller when you get the extreme motion up. david in texas. >> caller: how are you? >> not bad. thank you. how about you? >> caller: i'm doing great. i'm into some binary option trading. how does it compare to every day trading or every day trading or should i be doing something different? >> look, i want to tell people right up front that if you're going today trade, just quit your job. i'm against doing it. you can't do day trade and have another job. it requires a level of concentration. options are different. if you can go out a few months, go deep in the money calls, out five, six months, that's just like owning stock, maybe better in a volatile market. there's two different things. i think you'll be fine if you do the latter. one of the great questions about investing is what's the
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difference between a broken stock and a broken company? the ones that have clear reasons, why it's selling off. those presume are broken companies. after the break i'll try to make you more money.
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welcome back to this special edition of "mad money." we teach you how to navigate market corrections. those are the brutal declines in stocks that would leave the best of us in tears or scared and headi heading straight for the dirty floor. only a brief layover at the liquor store to pick up some
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weak scotch. that's one way of handling a big market downturn. we've done that. it's not that lucrative. it's not how we do it especially if we're under aage. we've been over the big stuff. they always happen. it shouldn't shock you. you know that you have to circle the wagon around what you really like and leave the stocks you're not enthusiastic in the dust. i call them number fours. i talked about telling the difference between damaged stocks and damaged goods. a correction is just nak in sa stocks. i want to get specific with the methods to my madness and tell you type of stocks i like to hunt on days that are down.
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i'm going to take you hunting with me because the more brutal the sell off, the more attractive the hunting. i like to find stocks that have pulled back from their highs during the sale off. it's really great place to look for good investments. stock didn't get on the new high list just because their bad. you might love the company and think the stock just a great buy. this is what big declines were pla made of. you look for the stocks that got knocked off the high list. i like to use a 5 to 8% rule. not all of its going to be worst buying. some stocks will be going lower for good reason because they are damaged goods. there are other stocks that could be knocked off the list. when you find a stock that in
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order to go down requires a big correction, they probably got something wonderful sitting right there. not all the time. you'll have to use your discretion. usually the ones that get knocked down will be the stocks that recover hardest and fastest from the carnage. meaning a damaged company sits under that damaged stock. that's not a place you want to go anywhere near. that's the first group of stocks i want you looking at while you're out that bargain hunting. you should have one stock that's pulled back from its high on the selloff list, which is what i'm trying to teach you how to make money. you want to list the stocks to buy if they nose dive tomorrow even if you'd take pass at them. when the decline comes, you'll be taking advantage of it rather than being a victim. there's a second stock and those
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are stocks with dividends. they become a lot more attractive as the share prices go lower. keep your eye on stocks that you would buy if only their dividends yields were higher. it will send the stock lower. if you know this, i'm trying to reach everyone out there including second graders who don't know the difference between a stock and bonds and 3-year-olds who like animal noises. the dividends yield is the size of the dividends. let's say $20. $1 dividends divided by $20 stock price and that's a stock with a 5% yield. as the price goes lower, the yield goes higher. i know dividends investing isn't sexy. nobody woke up unhappy after bringing home a stock with a big dividends, you want to get more conservative. you want stocks that are,
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nothing's ever guaranteed but it can put some money in your pocket. if it's a damaged company, then you can bet that company might have to cut its dividends which defeats the entire purpose of hunting for stocks with newly attractive dividends. a good rule of thumb when trying to tell if a dividends is reliable by looking at the company's earnings or profit. if it's twice the size of the dividends payment, i think it's pure. here is the bot testimotom line. a selloff is a reason to buy. stocks with nice yields that have grown larger. why? because of the stock's decline. let's go to laura in new jersey. >> caller: jim cramer, how are you doing? >> not bad. >> caller: listen, don't let small bucks take you away from us. i love seeing your face in the morning. i'm concerned.
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>> do not worry. i will be here. not a problem. >> caller: good. we need you. something really unfortunate happened to me not too long ago with the stock loss order that i put in on our good friend's netflix. i put it in just before the earnings came out hoping the news would be good but preparing that it wouldn't. it wound up not to be good. i thought i was protected and i was not. i watched it in horror. what could i do in the future? >> i don't like stop loss orders. everything's got to be done by hand individually. you want to sell a stock, grow in with a limit and you sell it. no stop loss orders. none of that stuff on the books. just what you said. all my life i've heard stories like that. i've only had to say, if you can't monitor it yourself, don't
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do it at all. calvin in texas. silent cal. you're on. >> caller: hi. a great booyah to you today. >> back at you. >> caller: what type of investments are appropriate in a bull or bare market, cyclical or secular? >> i like, in a bare market nothing works. we're just trying to lose less. in a bare market i like the cyclicals more if they've been brought down. usually estimates have come down so much they do well. i like secular growth. i like cyclicals. when we get a bit of good news, you have to snap back.
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pat in illinois. >> caller: thanks for your help. what is your opinion on the new 10% uptake rule? >> it means nothing. it's not going to help. it's not going to do better. we need to reenstate the rule of short selling. i think the sec is about three years away from recognizing this has destroyed a lot of wealth in the country. they're never going to talk to me. why? i don't know. i've been around for 31 years. i think i represent the people better than a lot of people who people talk to. if they ever want to talk to me, i'm more than happy to explain to them the way the world really works, not the academic world but the actual world. correction, selloff, no matter what you call it. think of it as a buying opportunity. don't bury your head in the sand. you know what i love about this country?
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trick question.
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now there's an entire cottage industry of commentators and pundits that will tell you you can never beat the market. that you cannot win. it's better to put your money in an index fund that mirrors the market yourself and try to invest your own. right, try to pick stocks. you can beat the averages as long as you know what you're doing. this is important to keep this mind after a selloff period. that's why i do "mad money" and try to educate you about how the market works. i'm devoting tonight's show to some of the most important lessons i've learned. right now i've got a rule for getting back to eden that will help you avoid getting burned.
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don't trust buybacks. don't trust when a company announcing it's going to buy back a lot of stock. i have to tell you, i used to believe in large buybacks. companies purchase their own shares in order to take them out of the equation. i almost thought they were worthwhile. i had to take cushion stocks. buybacks are way for company to reward shareholders with the cash. buybacks have become increasingly popular. from the beginning of 2005 to the middle of 2011, all the companies in the s&p 500 spent $2.24 trillion. unfortunately, these buybacks haven't given us the value we thought they would. they turned tout be wastes of money. almost in the majority of cases.
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i want you to be suspicious rather than bullish. the track record looks better thanks to the huge rally of 2009 but in the wake of 2008 crash it's still not hard to find companies that squandered their money leaving shareholders with nothing to show. some companies have been worse than others. here is a group that stands out, the hmos, aetna. they are some of the worst buyback offenders. these are the kind of large mature businesses that you would expect to pay good dividends. if they kept their dividends small, in order to finance buy backs on a massive scale. even as in some cases insiders were selling their stock at the same time as the company was buying it back. that's always a red flag. if you ever believed buy backs were beneficial to shareholders
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these three hmos proved that wrong. all three companies could have had yields of over 4% if they converted their buyback money into dividends. that makes the stocks more attractive. instead of paying big dividends they blew money on buybacks. with the hmos they were some of the worst cases of companies buying back stock. since it's just net income divided by the total number of share s, a buyback can create the perception of growth. what about it can help cushion a stock's fall in a bare market by ensuring there's always a buyer ready to step in and purchase stock. i thought this at one point, but the evidence says otherwise. short sellers are ordinary sellers in a panic and can
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overpower companies trying to pump up its own stock. when they can buy it. again, a dividends does a much better job by creating yield support. no group is more aggressive when it came to buybacks than the banks leading up to crash. that didn't do an ounce of good. not one bit of holding the stocks when they face the rapid onslaught and etf that hammered down every bank in sight. it's a big waste of money. when repealed an old depression era regulation called the uptake rule that forced short sellers to wait for above market prices before they could sell stock hammered down every bank buyback in sight. they didn't have to wait. the sellers could push. you see what try to bottom their own stock.
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these guys do this all the time. they don't know anything. these attempt at babe ruth style call shots always fail. turn out to be another waste of money. the executive is trying to call the bottom often not to understand the stock market or their own stock as well as you expected. here is the bottom line. buybacks by themselves are no reason to own a stock and in some circumstances are reasons enough to sell it. i think we never want to own the stock of a company that's wasting the money it needs to survive on useless buybacks or even worse, spending money it doesn't have on an activity as repurchasing its shares. you shouldn't rely on the largest buyback to help prop up a stock if the situation becomes dire. they are false scienigns of held waste of shareholders money. stick with cramer. [ male announcer ] research suggests the health of our cells plays a key role
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after a selloff, in order for stocks to move higher, they needed to have the fuel necessary for rally. what's the fuel? cash. cash. sometimes the fuel comes from retail investors who have taken mare money off the sideline and putting it to work back in the stock market. when money is flowing into stocks and hedge funds desperate to own stocks rather than shorter them, then you're in the land of the thousands dances. as long as more and more dough is flowing it's easy to find groups of stocks to go higher.
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you got to buy the dips each time they occur. that's the formula for dip buying. it can take a long time for regular people to become accustomed after a serious selloff. with no money flowing in the market or without flows which have been detailed for a long now, you can have powerful moves in the stocks and sector that are trying to assert their leadership but the fuel to make those happen can't come out of thin air, it's money. it's got to come from somewhere. if people are still reluctant to invest then the money will be pulled out of the least exciting area, the least interesting group of stocks and they swap into more fashionable needs with more lift. people who own food and drug stocks will happily sell them in order to raise cash. there's one problem. without new money flowing in, there's a zero sum and you can run out of fuel. as soon as it comes to an end
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the leaders run out of steam. there's nothing left. the money is coming out of market and we're only playing with the market that's stuck in it. when investors are on the sideline and they are reluctant to commit capital, something worse can happen. you can get rally in the wrong stocks. the food and drug names that were used as fuel can become the markets of leaders and the cash that investors pull out of them goes right back in. no matter that it just might be because the nondurables are getting so cheap. you never really want to see any of the consumer staples roaring higher. saw that in 2000. we knew the tech was finished. it means people think the economy will get worse or stay in awful shape for a long time to come. that's why one of the most horrifying things you can see in the stock market is a powerful rally in the wrong stocks.
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t here is the bottom line. there's nothing more disconcerting than watching a beverage stock plow its way higher without any understanding of the damage it's doing to other stocks. until there's vast amounts of money coming in from the sidelines, you need be more cautious and aggressive when you see the food and drug names do well. in the meantime look for opportunities to buy high quality names where the stocks and not companies are broken. be ware of tactics like buybacks that prop up stock prices only to see them go right down from unstoppable high frequently bombers, i mean traders. "mad money" is back after the break.
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how about some mad mail. this one is from craig. i watch your program most every night with a pen and paper and a beverage taking notes as you deliver insightful advice. you've said to buy on weakness or dips. what do you do with a stock that's doing very well and keeps ongoing up made with very few minor pull backs? craig there's two ways to approach this. for a high momentum stock i like to use deep money calls. it's a stock replacement way. as the stock goes up, you sell common stock against the call. if you have a sudden dip you buy the common stock back. you're shorting common against call option. what i like to do if it'sage individual stock that i own, i like to take it out in increments till i get the house's money. once i'm only playing with the house's money then i let it run
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and i don't care where it goes. i can own it forever. here is one from linda. i usually receive dividends in cash. why and when should i elect to have the dividends input into stocks? you have to do it. if you look at how the s&p 500 is done, it's quite done well. if you didn't reinvest dividends, it's done poorly. you let the dividends reaccumulate and over time even for companies that kind of do nothing that have a 5% yield you're going to double your money over a short period of time. reinvest dividends. here is one from ryan in california. air force booyah. i'm 27 and want to start getting serious about investing in my roth ira. i think my best bet is to avoid mutual and pick three or four stocks.
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with so many companies, where do i start? start with companies you like. this is an old peter lynch method. it's still available. you can go on amazon. may be the greatest fund manager of our lifetime. he wrote a fantastic book about how to get started. start with something that you like. you visit at the mall and do the homework. you check the conference calls. see how the company's doing. get comfortable. buy a little. wait for it to come down. your first buy is almost not your last buy. that's how you get comfortable. pick brand name company, do some homework. if it goes down you'll say will i buy more if it's cheaper or the company is broken? here is one from reid. i'd like to know if the fundamentals can influence its day-to-day and if that's long
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for time frame. we don't really care unless it's widely emive. what i would tell you if you're going to trade, pick your spots. go read the book real money. the most important thing you need know is you have to be out at the end of the day. not my style. that's technical. you bought it because you expect a catalyst tomorrow. that's fine. once it occurs, go, go, go. it's all about discipline. discipline trumps conviction when it comes today trading. here is one from andrea in wisconsin. i've been looking at average pe ratios over the past 100 years. i know exciting stuff. it appears the average ratio will get down to about ten. what are your thoughts. >> is this valuable? no.
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the earnings where going to drop off a cliff. we care about how its cheaper extensive market is versus interest rates. we want a cheap market if we're going to buy versus owning bonds. overall i've never put much stock in the pe of entire market is cheap. a lot of times it looks claheap before it gets really dark. ryan says you say to be on the look out for next big trend. i believe there's mobile computing. what are your thoughts on mobile payment companies? i don't want to do any of those. there's a battle going on between apple and google. it's about the mind share of mobile and that's what the -- one of these two will be the platform that wins. get comfortable with one. that's the one you should buy. stick with cramer.
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sven's home securitycard gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! how does this thing work? oh, i like it! [ garth ] sven's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! woo-hoo!!! so that's ten security gators, right? put them on my spark card! why settle for less? testing hot tar... great businesses deserve the most rewards! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? here's your invoice.
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to drive a car filled with as much advanced technology as the world around it. with the available lexus enform app suite, you can use opentable to make restaurant reservations... search with bing... and listen to pandora. presenting the 2013 lexus gs, rx and the all-new es, the leading edge of the leading edge. during the golden opportunity sales event, get great values on some of our newest models. this is the pursuit of perfection.


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