tv Fast Money CNBC December 18, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
of us. i pray our current president, who will be inaugurated again, i pray his next four years be infinitely better than his first and does so well he's considered one of the greatest presidents if not the greatest president in the history of the country. >> think that will happen? >> i hope so because we all win if it does. this thank you so much. ken langone for joining us. >> thank you very much. "fast money" with us. i will see you on cnbc. have a great night. is christmas coming early? >> we are very close to being able to achieve that. the president has demonstrated an obvious willingness to compromise. >> it's starting to sounds like it. >> our plan b would protect american taxpayers who make a million dollars or less and have all of their current rates extended. i continue to have hope that we can reach a broader agreement with the white house that would
reduce spending as well as have revenues on the table. >> but not so fast. >> every time we get down to being something for the long te term, financial security of this country, they take that football. and it's a charl hi brown episode, they jerk the ball away. this is what they're doing again. >> will it be cliff kringel or grinch gridlock? we make our bets tonight. >> welcome to the nasdaq markets in new york city's time square. here are tonight's top trades. only a few more days to say "deal or no deal." what about the big dividend players? tech turnaround staging a comeback leading the rally. and two opinions. a debate on bank of america. were you a buyer or seller
today? >> technicals say you have to be a buyer. we talked ability 1425 being resistance on the way up. it was a few times and third time up went through it. now the market sets up to go anywhere between the highs we saw in 2000, 1550ish and the highest in 2009, 2007, excuse me when we publish up to 1550 as well. somewhere between 1500 and 1550, that's where we're headed. >> you need a horseshoe or hand grenade for that? >> you want me to narrow it down? 1505 to 1545 there, wise guy, trying to create the tension, i know, but that's where we're headed. >> where were you? >> up eight days in a row and euro yen at one year highs. people are putting risk. we haven't gone through this rotation on equities in debt. >> the thing i can't get my head around, when you take a look at sector, sequester sectors that
would be hit hardest, they are pennies away at two week highs. take a look at financials, the military or financials, almost like the market doesnbelieves t will be a deal done or that it won't affect these sectors. >> you have to trade the range of the market. today, i sold all day long, four longs, one short position an put energy back on, on the short side. bonds and stocks are trading very predictable. bonds got oversealed with bond yields today and stocks got overbought. >> we are at a predictable range in bonds. that's what people are pointing to. we're at the highs of october and effectively busted through a 300 day and five year auction people don't want to buy. >> it's important, multiple durations and multiple factors.
this is called ""fast money"" as of now. bonds on the close now. bonds got oversold now. you look at tim's intermediate term, what just happened is very important. bonds made a series of basically higher lows. to get people out of bonds into stocks would be the most bullish catalyst you have. out-flows into equities to get them out of bonds and into stocks, that would be good. >> and money markets instead of bonds. >> buy or sell? >> buy. this was a multi-day rally and we were a buyer. >> almost an mo-mo player. >> not an m 0-mo girl but i've been called worse than that. bullish. >> which makes me feel uncomfortable and shared. >> defense stocks. i thought that was interesting. we talked about those ahead of this fiscal cliff. those are where you want to be. look at lockheed, they've performed well. >> because they're looking at a
deal being made, does that make you believe this is the rally that should have happened after a deal. the rally happens before, is it sell on the news? >> the stocks have been so flatlined, this is not a political comment, they basically flatlined and moved slightly higher since the obama administration four years ago. these stocks are sort of -- i hate to use the term -- >> you're going to. >> i'm going to spring load it. >> spring loaded. >> coiled. >> i hate that term. >> seeing that these are becoming unsprung -- >> excuse me? >> how far can it go? >> here's what i think. i think it's important to note housing stocks are ridiculously expensive. i think the builders are expensive and a lot built into this. the other parts of the economy, i would go back to cyclicals and industrials. when you start to hear droguegy saying he's seeing a good half in europe and people all over the world saying the world is
better, we don't need to be that same engine in growth and will price in that same half in 2013 now. look at german autos and german exporters, i said this yesterday. >> the thing with stocks and cheap stocks, it's reflexive. if it's expensive, going to get more expensive. if it's cheap. you can't get people to buy apple at 5.02 but all they want at 4.32. they're shorting low and buying high. you have to plate. >> buy or sell today? >> we were a seller today. the market finished on a strong note. my only feeling, the market is up more than 6% a month. i think that's a decent reason why some people might think it's a good sell and there's an expectation there will be a resolution and what we're seeing in price action. if you fast forwarded me in six months, would i rather be in stocks or high yields, i'd say stocks. here, i can see a bit of bad
news being a reason to roll over a bit. >> the question tonight is what will the market reaction should a deal be reached? a sale on the news event? let's bring in mike. what do you say? >> i think more likely something of a sell or rest. it definitely to me is not a bullish catalyst. we've seen the theater playing out here enough that the market is not sitting there waiting for the headline and grip and grin photo we will see at the end of these negotiations, likely. even on a pure sell on the news, now time to worry about the details reaction. it is not going to be your enduring market catalyst in the first place. we should be turning our attention to other things. >> does it matter what the deal itself actually is? i don't mean that sarcastically. it may or may not. >> i do think it matters, people focus on what the likelihood is.
we're still going to see a fiscal drag, a headwind, not a tailwind. what's more important, as we've been talking about all this, fourth quarter earnings estimates have come down from 10% growth to 3 or 4% growth. you had this process of people lowering their sights what we can do on the corporate side as they think washington holds the key. all of that stuff becomes more apparent as we get this out of the way. >> you think of the real spiky news. september 13th, on bernanke and now on fiscal cliff. is it more of the same, people chasing price and have very little conviction in what they do? >> i think there's a big element of that. at some point, that dynamic fadingsfad fades a little bit. in 2012, so much was normal was a surprise. nobody expected a 15% move. nobody expected it to move with
corporate earnings and spreads. i do think on a tactical basis, i would expect that. >> that's interesting because earnings season doesn't start until the middle of january and a lot of runway for people to get crazy on the upside and earnings starts with financials. >> and financials probably told you they're expecting pretty good ratings. >> you talked about the mystery broker in the barrons who had a pretty good track record says to sell. why? >> not to quote just one person. i think he whips on himself a little bit because he likes how financials are acting and now not so bearish. when you look at the debt ceiling, you hat a 90 point s&p rally right a few points before the stated deadline. he was a little nervous about the overbought readings and sentiment fueling it thinking we should pull back a little bit,
if nothing else. mike, thank you, from yahoo! finance. >> longer buying 2220 ining 201. look what marion said, pull back a little bit and some rally and a pull back next year. >> i think when he you're looking for cyclical growth, you have to lock at transports and industrials. those things have lagged and on valuation are still pretty interesting. somebody's talking to me here. if you're looking at home builders, pull ooulty is very expensive. i don't think we need a lot of new homes built in this country. >> that's why she had doubts about the market. the transports aren't confirming what we're seeing. >> the airlines and fedex is not the same market you saw -- >> two weeks ago? >> it really looks deficit.
>> dow transportation index broke through a high. i don't know why you're saying they haven't participated. they have and are through those levels. bertha back at headquarters, what are you watching? >> oracle is trading above its 2012 closing high, above $33. the company coming in with earnings for its second quarter that were better than expected on a gap basis, 64 cents, three cents better, revenues top the at $9 billion roughly. i saw strength in software and cloud services, up 18%. 47% operating margin better. and hardware 74.3 million and an estimate, and off the conference call jon fortt is monitoring, expect third quarter hardware revenue growth to be flat to negative, 10%.
they also bout back about $3 billion in stock in the second quarter. >> martha, i understand has issued guidance. what is it? >> the eps guidance is 66, to my eye, right what consensus was looking for. license and cloud revenue looking to be between 3 and 13 cents. sorry, up 3-13% in u.s. dollars. the street was looking for around 6.8%. that's right in the range. overall, people might be satisfied with this guyidance. hardware product, that guidance down negative 10% to flat, as they continue to peel off those low margin sales and concentrate on engineering systems. >> thanks for that update. the oracle stock up 1% after-hours trade. coming up, shareholders be
apple. freak out when it goes down and chase it going up. >> i would say 550. >> i say 550 because it's closer to 500. i am long. >> what did we say about the market earlier on the show, you will have apple. if the market will go somewhere in the next five years, get to 1550, buttal.is going to 550 before it goes to 500 in this market environment. >> scares me. the momentum is behind it now and momentum shot. people overshot it on the downside and on the up side. i don't know we will see 580ish level. >> it will be tough to replicate the events. how many sell ciders got bearish at 591. if that's what you want. i rarely get an opportunity to buy apple and we did. >> more than 250 companies announced $38 billion worth of special dividends and accelerations ahead of the fiscal cliff deadline. if a deal is reached, what should you do with your dividend
paying stocks. joining us is matt, portfolio manager, investing in exclusive stocks more than 52 years. thanks for coming on the show. >> thanks for having me. >> what would you expect the reaction of dividend payers to be? >> if you see a deal aannounced tomorrow. a short term euphoric rally and expect dividends to under-perform because traditional balance sheets, more consistent earnings. i would be a seller into that rally because i am a trader and think economic reality is that it will not necessarily be a creed to 2013. i think 2013 will be a bumpy ride and as volatility picks up, so will deficit stocks and think it's realistic about the market and economy. >> sounds like you're selling on the news but as far as dividend payers you pick up on a pull back because of that rally in
the markets, what would top your list? >> i would go with quality, consistency, needs not wants. we like companies like johnson&johnson, has a dividend depend it's paid for over 42 straight years and mcdonald's over three year yield and 43 plus years of dividends and i like how it had strong same-store sales recent lin aspect of a fragile economy and intel, a large yield of 4%, 40 years of dividend increases and i think the bad news is baked into the stock and i think all of those names have bullet proof investment sheets investors will seek out over time. >> how do they overcome the comps especially in asia have been so week, driving the stock higher and it's almost going value toert. >> mcdonald had a difficult year. i look at it this way. when you see same-store sales up in mcdonald and darden
decreasing, i think investors are buying down on food. you look at the average ticket is below 10 bucks, people have to eat. in europe, it got weak and sa same-store sales weak a come dot feature and if they get an increasing dividend, that's an attractive option going forward. >> i'm curious about intel and all the prognostications about the death of the pc. and even in tech land, why intel? >> it's trading nine times earnings, seeking $12.5 billion in capital expenditures every year. has a newnan nometer chip and the only problem it doesn't have association with apple. you look at samsung's price increases with apple, if they find a way to associate with apple, positive. margin ways, specifically india and china. you have large dividend yield,
low debt, very cheap and will hold up better because expectations, there's not many of them. the stock is, i think, a very good opportunity because expectations are so low. >> mack, good to see you. time now for what you might have missed in pops and drops. arcos dorados. >> it's playing it down low. it isn't that great a move. i think you wait to buy it above the 50, $12.90, great stock. baker hughes, up 3%. >> some negative comments, took bhi down and the comments at bhi were not really as negative as the street thought. at $42 a little room on the upside. will take you higher. >> abercrombie. >> too expensive for me. can't get on board here. >> down 1%. >> keep your eyes on your fries.
this thing is a big deal. a lot of people in bonds, a lot of flow into bonds. they could head out. i think you see follow through and cut our fixed exposure to 2%. >> mike. >> today, there was news the eu might require larger warning labels on cigarettes, negative in that area. yesterday, there was a report on u.s. sales on cigarette, even though they had 3% increase in prizes declined 3% and a challenging environment for cigarette sales, not a good story. >> drop for maple syrup. >> what? >> three burglars in canada were arrested for a massive maple syrup heist that affected the global supply. police weren't waffling where the robbery took place, took 10 million pounds of the sugary liquid and they now face
conspiracy charges and trafficking. >> who was behind his? yogi bear? >> that's bad. ♪ >> who sings this song? >> like the kennedy family bootlegging mol las cess out of canada? that's old school. coming up. >> they were cartoon characters. we've gone through this before. >> i must have blocked it out of my mind. coming up next, the up to the minute updates in the oracle's conference call and still to come, we head into the ring for good classic street fights. stay tuned because the traders are lacing up their gloves and settling the score on bank of america. next. ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection.
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sales. still hiring sales people across every region, across vert capitals, cloud. larry ellison chimed in. finally, larry ellison said in qe-3 they'll be turning the corner in hardware revenue and in q4 expect growth and improving margins. >> thanks. you see the stock moving higher towards its previous highs. >> 52 week high. what we haven't mentioned i think might be the most important metric in oracle, the new licensing method was up 17%. they shop out there and continue to show how well they integrate. the problem is we will start pushing up against the 36 level, had been the top 12 years ago and in '09, if i'm not mistaken or '07. keep a look on it. i think it has more room to run, maybe 34, 35, then might be time to take the money off the table. also 52 week highs in shares of sales.
meanwhile, bopoulty group, e builder hit its highest levels since april of 2006. do you have the stomach to stay in a trade like pou orkpulte orn williams? >> the question is, are you bullish enough? it will continue easily to the early part of next year and contrarian enough to say. watch the headlines on existing homes this week. these are going higher not lower. >> and waffling -- >> maple syrup. >> you got sucked into the waffling. at 40 times earnings, you're not a guy chasing momentum like that. that, to me, seems contrary to what you would call that. i thought you would say that's asinine. >> we shifted from growth
slowing to growth stabilizing globally. one of the purest ways to play that is buy stocks people are short. where they're short are expensive stocks. if you're going to pay that, you might as well pay 900 times earnings. >> you're on the other side because you called the value a little rich for home builders specifically. >> so much good news is in new home construction part because i don't think that's where the trade is. i think it's in housing, the wealth effect of housing. in temporarilies, too, related to the housing sector but not necessarily new building and its infrastructure. this, to me, is part of it. i mentioned electronics ticker that is in titanium dioxide is paint and trox was pushed down now up 20% in two days, is still very very cheap, if you believe this recovery is coming, this is something you can stain. a lot already had a run. this had a two day spike.
>> are you sticking with the home depots of the world? >> home depot closed negative, but has to give you some pause. it happened before. we're around the highs. i still think home depot works and the high sets up well. >> let's hit a little hold them or fold them. precision cast. up 20% from a year ago. >> you know how to play this game. you have to play the game. >> two ways to play the game. >> two bays to play the game? really? a myriad. >> you can explain or blurt it out or do it in the middle? or talk and never answer the question. >> i'm a good blurter. >> hold 'em! >> that means stay with them. hopefully you've been with them a while because we've been talking about this stock forever. this is an all time high. people shied away from this, made an acquisition, seem to do everything right, an under the radar name that still works.
it's 89ish, all time high, i think you ought to hold on to this sucker. you like that? hold them and then gave reasons. a strong play by me. >> you get a gold star. coming up next, four trends sure to take the world by storm. dan ackerman from cnn is going to give you. e ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
welcome back. we're live at the new york markets. ♪ >> what is that song? that's horrible. >> l.l. cool jay. >> what? >> ll cool j. what's your problem? >> listen to him, like it's his job. >> the stock is up 100% to date and not everyone believes in this rebound. karen, who is bullish and ge, who is bearish. karin, state your case. >> there is a lot to love about bank of america. proving real estate market, that
will help him. consumer spending will improve. much improvement in the credit portfolio, rising interest rates will be good. i think we will see that and you will have declining litigation and other expensives. still trading at a significant amount to book and the only thing i don't like about it is that the stock has been up a lot recently. other than that, i still own it, not looking to trade around it. think is there room to run at bank of america. >> she makingses a cogent argum. there are a couple things in the short term. housing data that could be a bit of bogey. what about the delinquent loans on the books, if they turn into foreclosure, i think they will, i don't think that augers particularly well. the situation in new york hasn't been cleaned up and a bogey and at some point investors want them to raise the dividend,
which is paltry. a good word, paltry and will buy back stock in a significant way. at a certain point, all the words karen says holds true, double their eps growth, you have to be a little leary, maybe there's bogeys we don't talk about enough. >> you want to talk about the delinquent loans, a lot to be seen? >> i think delinquent loans have continued to come down and very well reserved against them. >> like the boogeyman part of the the sis. at the end of the day, this is a stock, a, under on. >> what do you mean? historic historically it's less owned by institutions than in the past? >> yes. and has a lot of upside on valuation. t it is still a relatively cheap stock. when you line up the ducks for 2012 and mutual managers have to look at this, if you by b of a,
or sell it, you buy it. >> part of the argument yesterday by meredith whitney was ultimately saying you will see these guys have capital to put to work towards a buyback or dividends. and what is still very much in question, with their improved balance sheet and organization, that the government will let them. not let them go into government-type play pens but let them give something back to shareholders they want to see. >> meredith made a good point they will generate 15% of the market capital stock, a lot of dough. >> all the arguments make sense and we all would admit, this is extraordinarily volatile stock for a bank and we've seen them move up in an incredible way and seen them move down in a precipitous fashion and i think you could see that again. not saying you can't go to 12,
12.5 at some point but wouldn't surprise me if we saw 9 or 10%. >> more sellers than buyers, it sounds like. mike has been watching goldman sachs and an upgrade out today. mike, what did you see? >> it was interesting. kind of a mixed bag at goldman sachs. obviously the stock has had quite a run. where we saw opening interest, we look at flow, we know people are buying options and not cl e closing existing positions and we saw some of that in the december put with 80s on those and maybe the stock went a little too far too fast and might pull back 2.5% or more by friday's expiration. where bac is concerned, i agree, you have a cheap stock that gets less cheap, i think you want to stay with that trade. pulte, not so sure. trade school is in session
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after a rocky start for facebook following its ipo in may, it has fun to momentum and rallied 40% in the last two months alone. what's behind the sudden surge. doing digging, julia may have found the answer to the market mystery. >> at the end of the day investors are happy facebook is serious about making money and taking big steps to generate revenue from a new source, instagram. facebook shares surging more than 3.5%. the company posted new terms of service that go into effect mid-january to enable it to offer ads on its popular instagram app. the new terms sparked serious outrage that stain gram would sell user's photos. instagram saying it's listening to users a concerns and does not in tend to sell photos without
compensation and saying it does want to make money and wants to be respectful of user's writes. saying in a blog, advertising is one of the many ways instagram can become a self-sustaining business. we'd like to experiment with innovative advertising that is appropriate. and it isn't the only way facebook will cash in. they're planning to launch video ads in user's news feeds. both videoads and instagram ads could be a gold mine for facebook and could turn off users as we saw from high profile users like lebron james threatening to leave instagram and so they have to move carefully. >> does facebook say it will still proceed with its plan to sell potentially users's photos but will potentially listen to concerning? >> this blog from kevin cisterns which went up earlier this hour
they do not plan to sell photos without compensation, which means without consent. they're trying to figure out how to do advertising, among other things, on instagram. later in this blog, he talked about what does advertisining o instagram look like? they envision a world users and companies can promote their photos and instagram streams, kind of like twitter. it struck me as something akin to the twitter model, photos, if you want to promote your instagram feed, you can buy that, buy better placement or pay money to promote your photos. we'll see what they end up doing with that. it seems as of this blog they get people are concerned and need to watch their step. >> thanks for that. keith, quickly, you like facebook despite this. the stock doesn't care. it was up 3% today despite all this. >> it's the kind of stock you love to hate because because
it's expensive. the only thing they don't have an edge on is fundamentals. >> it doesn't matter. facebook. >> it's a storytelling stock, expensive gets more expensive until they report a bad fundamental. last december, the rumor mill was going on for a launch date for stand alone apple tv. what tech surprises will we see in 2013? let's ask dan ackerman, the senior editor for cnet. you have four surprises and the first starts in the tablet arena. >> we found in the latter half of this year people started to warm up to less expensive tablets. you guys have your ipads here and 5, 6, $700. everybody loves google nexus 7, $199. does a lot of the same things and reminds me a couple years ago people buying cheap $300 netbooks, not great computers but for a lot of people what they needed right then. you can see a lot of people going i can buy a $200 tablet.
>> the netbook craze lasted five minutes. >> you know what, they sold a lot of those netbooks in five minutes. i have seen maybe five laptops that had touchscreens on them. since november, i've probably seen 10. with windows, it needs windows 8 to work, everybody, handicap and all these companies are taking their regular laptops and slapping touchscreens on them. it's kind of organic, once you get used to it, i will flick up here and use the keyboard and use the touchpad. the nice part is it's not really raising the cost a lot. i have seen them about $500, a regular laptop with a touchscreen. if they get into everything outside of super budget laptops next year, it will be a standard feature you expect. >> you also said the product category lines will be blurred next year? >> that's her to thing with windows 8. people don't know what to do with it it's so unusual. some people may have a laptop
with a touchscreen. >> that sounds positive for microsoft. where they wanted to be. >> they wanted to be on every product. at the same time, there's been a lot of pushback and people not used to the tile interface. it doesn't matter. when you buy a new computer, it will have it on it. people aren't rushing to upgrade but when you get a new screen and with the laptops with touchscreens and experimenting on hybrids where it pops off or swivels around and giant slider ones. >> she's taking you down a primrose path. i won't go there. >> i'm glad. i will get to the fourth tech surprise. hello. >> that's entirely true. people next year will try all these deficit things. some will live and some won't. a lot of them are just gimmicky and don't really work. >> 3d printing. >> that has taken off a lot more
than i expected. i thought it was reared only geeky guys will be into. there's already pop-up stores in new york can download it online and they will print you a lens cap and you can make specific things. the kits to make these things are maybe a couple hundred bucks next year. not everyone will have one in their house. of course, everyone will have a 3d printer. it's totally normal. >> you could be printing out your dungeons and dragons. >> yeah. it's crazy. >> thank you. you mentioned microsoft. a lot of people like it because it's a dividend. it's cheap but it doesn't really go far. >> i like microsoft because i think their relevance back into a touchscreen is what they always wanted and is why am is under pressure. to indistinguish the hardware, i know am is not a hardware company, the iphone is something
as the end of 2012 approaches, the twitter adi are getting a little nervous about what they're talking about. >> you look at the topics being discussed, from breakups to fashion to the economy and even stocks. one in particular, apple. brian tweeting 2012 taught me if someone issues in the 2,000 price target, that's the cue to tell. >> it's this anti-fundame anti-fundamentalist, even if they miss, the stock goes higher. >> and sbs is even more technical than before with all the algorhythm programming taking place. >> and twitter, they learned how to utilize it as an additional resource for financial market
education. >> wow! in terms of the technicals, that's a good point this year. >> we talk about it all the time. fundamentals are obviously very important. technicals matter and they work. let's not get into why they work, they work. >> biggest lesson this year that you've learned? think in the apple case, that when you think something is in visible and all the news is going for it. the samsung verdict and seemed like things couldn't get any better and the iphone 5 -- >> we have to go to news. >> it's official. looks like getc ro and knight capital group have made a deal. getco seems to have won the deal with a sweetener. it has two key components, $3.75 up from an original $3.50, they raised it to $3.60 and then to
$3.75 and the total is closer to $2 billion entirely. another interesting change is tom joyce, who had been set to be non-executive chairman, charmed and ceo of knight right now will actually be executive chairman with daniel coleman who runs getcollc at present. a little bit of shift in terms of structure of management and board and deal sweetener. it was a close horse race. a lot of folks were happy with virtue from any knight side, there was a lot of mutual respect between the two companies. at the end of the day, getco had better economics and ultimately what the board had to go with. >> thank you very much. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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take a listen. >> i like realogy. there is a lot of leverage to a housing return. the way their business works, it's a capital not intensive business. a lot of rate margins and a lot of ways to get in this levered play. >> shares of realogy up 48 cents since then. do you stick with it? >> a little bit of cheating because it was off the ipo price. if you bought it where it was traded, i'm still long and one of the cheaper ways to play recovery in housing, way less than some of the home builders. onto the bad year, about a month later, karen had a trade on macy's, here's what she said. >> i like the mazecy's call. there's a shot. remember, there's a dividend. >> macy's is down 6% since then. >> what! it is not down 6%.
>> that's what it says. >> that's ugly. it is not down. those calls are down. that wasn't the right way to play it. i still like macy's the stock down 1 or 2%, i still like it. >> way to go. >> today, we're not going to do an ugly. we have another good for the first time ever, today, tuesday, december 18th is our own guy adami's birthday. >> gangnam style ♪ >> see your head pasted on? >> that's troubling. >> this is the best present a guy can get. >> come on, ferrari? i'm a gangnam style person. >> that is awesome. >> 49. >> you don't look a day over 60. >> i love all this stuff! that's a great collection. who am i dancing with